US Birth Rate

[Biff Tannen 45491]

Since this thread has kinda evolved into overpopulation and other topics, I wonder if Covid, fucking monkeypox, and other diseases that seem to be cropping up are just a natural consequence of having too many got damn people on the planet.  Seems logical.

[Snake Diggity 4614]

1 minute ago, trauma babe said:

"You shouldn't shame people for not wanting kids, but they're fucking idiots for not doing it" is how that reads to me, but maybe I'm just a little on edge about the whole thing

Assuming you’re replying to me, that’s absolutely not my take.  I would use “idiot” to describe a childless person who speaks with authority about what it’s like to have children or presents themselves as a credible opinion on the +/- of having kids.  I guess part of my point is that people with kids (especially people who had kids later in life) have a LOT better idea of what the childless experience is like compared to what childless people know about what it’s like to have kids.

Choosing whether or not to have kids is a personal decision, and I would wager that almost all people who choose not to have them is making the right choice (based on the idea that people who don’t want kids make the worst/unhappiest parents).  For that reason, I applaud people who choose not to have kids.  But if those same people turn around and act like having kids sucks, I would push back on that, because they don’t know wtf they’re taking about.

[RomaVicta 29769]

Quote

having children is the most joyful and fulfilling experience in life.

 

[chainsaw 9836]

Just now, 956 Worldwide said:

You seem to be rapidly shifting from “there’s no evidence that market/capitalist economies innovate better than Communist economies”’ to “capitalism doesn’t have a monopoly on innovation.” Which no one has argued, but you got some damn good licks in on that scarecrow. 

That was the original point if you go a few pages back. Someone was saying that you "need" capitalism for innovation. That's just not true though.

[Snake Diggity 4614]

4 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

 

Pffffft

[chainsaw 9836]

4 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Assuming you’re replying to me, that’s absolutely not my take.  I would use “idiot” to describe a childless person who speaks with authority about what it’s like to have children or presents themselves as a credible opinion on the +/- of having kids.  I guess part of my point is that people with kids (especially people who had kids later in life) have a LOT better idea of what the childless experience is like compared to what childless people know about what it’s like to have kids.

Choosing whether or not to have kids is a personal decision, and I would wager that almost all people who choose not to have them is making the right choice (based on the idea that people who don’t want kids make the worst/unhappiest parents).  For that reason, I applaud people who choose not to have kids.  But if those same people turn around and act like having kids sucks, I would push back on that, because they don’t know wtf they’re taking about.

Having kids can definitely suck if you're a poor. The idea of having to care about kids seemingly sucks if you're young and getting used to using your disposable income to do fun things like travel, pimp your house/ride, buy toys. They don't realize that in a few years most of their friends will have settled down. Travel will always be fun, but it will take a bigger toll on the body and mind. Luxuries and toys are nice but there's diminishing dopamine returns with them.

It feels like that transition happens more or less at a time where kids would fill the void, but there are a lot of people who do have kids at that age who never take to parenthood. Elon Musk is a good example, he's got like nine kids but they play no part of his life.

[safe sex 11676]

15 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Assuming you’re replying to me, that’s absolutely not my take.  I would use “idiot” to describe a childless person who speaks with authority about what it’s like to have children or presents themselves as a credible opinion on the +/- of having kids.  I guess part of my point is that people with kids (especially people who had kids later in life) have a LOT better idea of what the childless experience is like compared to what childless people know about what it’s like to have kids.

Choosing whether or not to have kids is a personal decision, and I would wager that almost all people who choose not to have them is making the right choice (based on the idea that people who don’t want kids make the worst/unhappiest parents).  For that reason, I applaud people who choose not to have kids.  But if those same people turn around and act like having kids sucks, I would push back on that, because they don’t know wtf they’re taking about.

Appreciate your clarification. 

[LTbear 4157]

On 7/9/2022 at 11:08 AM, Neonmoon said:

Good. There are too many fucking people. 

+1

[babysdaddy 2718]

I've seen other folks here reference Zeihan.  Populations across the developed world have reached their inflection point where they are no longer growing and will be shrinking.  China's population will be half of what it currently is by 2050.  

[Snake Diggity 4614]

25 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

I've seen other folks here reference Zeihan.  Populations across the developed world have reached their inflection point where they are no longer growing and will be shrinking.  China's population will be half of what it currently is by 2050.  

I think those countries down below 1.5 are gonna have big problems.  I think 1.7-2.0 is a decline that can be managed by gains in technology (along with immigration) but beneath that you run into serious issues, especially in caring for the elderly.  I wouldn’t want to be over 70 in China or S Korea anytime after about 2030. 

[chainsaw 9836]

5 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

I think those countries down below 1.5 are gonna have big problems.  I think 1.7-2.0 is a decline that can be managed by gains in technology (along with immigration) but beneath that you run into serious issues, especially in caring for the elderly.  I wouldn’t want to be over 70 in China or S Korea anytime after about 2030. 

What is unique about elder care that will make problems in Korea in 2030?

[TwiceHorn 31240]

20 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

What is unique about elder care that will make problems in Korea in 2030?

Well, Asians generally do have a good record of taking in elderly family members and caring for them to the end.  It's certainly not cost-free, both fiscally and other ways.

But Americans would bitch less about eldercare if the societal solution was generally to take them in instead of throw $5-10k at a senior living joint.

[Neonmoon 38127]

2 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

Since this thread has kinda evolved into overpopulation and other topics, I wonder if Covid, fucking monkeypox, and other diseases that seem to be cropping up are just a natural consequence of having too many got damn people on the planet.  Seems logical.

That is correct. 

The more people we have, the more space we need. That means humans come into contact more and more with animals, insects, flora, reptiles, etc that had previously been untouched. 

Hence more new diseases. 

[chainsaw 9836]

1 minute ago, Neonmoon said:

That is correct. 

The more people we have, the more space we need. That means humans come into contact more and more with animals, insects, flora, reptiles, etc that had previously been untouched. 

Hence more new diseases. 

The most FAFO is factory farming and gratuitous antibiotic usage. Could make covid seem like swampass.

[Snake Diggity 4614]

1 hour ago, chainsaw said:

What is unique about elder care that will make problems in Korea in 2030?

Just that the problem of elderly people not having enough young people to care for them is unique to aging populations.  One mitigating factor is that in democracies those elderly people will have outsized voting influence.  But that depends on the increasingly burdened young people staying cool about it.  Korea specifically might not fac it until a little later than 2030, but any country with sustained birth rate <~1.7 will face the issue sooner or later.

The wealthiest countries will be largely insulated from the problem because they can pull the immigration lever to backfill young people.

Edited July 11, 2022 by Snake Diggity

[Biff Tannen 45491]

28 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Just that the problem of elderly people not having enough young people to care for them is unique to aging populations.  One mitigating factor is that in democracies those elderly people will have outsized voting influence.  But that depends on the increasingly burdened young people staying cool about it.  Korea specifically might not fac it until a little later than 2030, but any country with sustained birth rate <~1.7 will face the issue sooner or later.

The wealthiest countries will be largely insulated from the problem because they can pull the immigration lever to backfill young people.

I still don't fully understand this.  Why do we need a certain amount of young people to take care of old people?  Are young people going to just say fuck it, let the olds die?  Admittedly, that sounds good sometimes, but in reality, I would step up to the plate.  Of course, we also keep a lot of old people alive much longer than necessary also.  Is the staff at nursing homes 1/1?  

[YChang 3430]

Just now, Biff Tannen said:

I still don't fully understand this.  Why do we need a certain amount of young people to take care of old people?  Are young people going to just say fuck it, let the olds die?  Admittedly, that sounds good sometimes, but in reality, I would step up to the plate.  Of course, we also keep a lot of old people alive much longer than necessary also.  Is the staff at nursing homes 1/1?  

Fwiw, that’s a very Anglo-American centric view here. It’s not uncommon rest of the world culturally to take care of our elders. And with a declining population, that internal safety net isn’t there. Case in point China and another aspect of their 1-child policy coming home to roost. 

[Snake Diggity 4614]

4 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

I still don't fully understand this.  Why do we need a certain amount of young people to take care of old people?  Are young people going to just say fuck it, let the olds die?  Admittedly, that sounds good sometimes, but in reality, I would step up to the plate.  Of course, we also keep a lot of old people alive much longer than necessary also.  Is the staff at nursing homes 1/1?  

It’s just an issue of balancing resources.  As the population ages, a higher % of resources ends up allocated to the elderly.  Elderly people can no longer work.  The burden of responsibility to provide their needs falls to the younger working people.  In a population with a sustained birth date >~2.3, there are plenty of young people such that providing for the elderly (whether it be funding social programs or directly caring for them) is no big deal.  Once the rate gets <~1.7 that burden starts to be very very heavy.

Edited July 11, 2022 by Snake Diggity

[immamac 42513]

There is no birth rate problem in the US. There is a we are worried about who we are going to sell shit to in 15 years problem. 

[David Dennison 18646]

31 minutes ago, immamac said:

There is no birth rate problem in the US. There is a we are worried about who we are going to sell shit to in 15 years problem. 

There is also a we are worried that we are going to be a racial minority in 15 years problem. 

[immamac 42513]

1 minute ago, David Dennison said:

There is also a we are worried that we are going to be a racial minority in 15 years problem. 

That has already happened. So many people think they are white when they are mixed with other stuff already it's hilarious and mixed race couples are pretty much the norm for this current generation. 

[Captainant 27403]

20 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

There is also a we are worried that we are going to be a racial minority in 15 years problem. 

I believe it's around 2040 or so when it's projected that white people will no longer be the majority demographic in the US - merely the largest plurality

[David Dennison 18646]

8 minutes ago, Captainant said:

I believe it's around 2040 or so when it's projected that white people will no longer be the majority demographic in the US - merely the largest plurality

White folks don't seem to be handling it very well.

[WBT 20411]

1 hour ago, immamac said:

There is no birth rate problem in the US. There is a we are worried about who we are going to sell shit to in 15 years problem. 

There will also be a worker:SS beneficiary ratio problem

[David Dennison 18646]

2 minutes ago, WBT said:

There will also be a worker:SS beneficiary ratio problem

The problem that exists is a political one. There are plenty of ways to fund SS in addition to worker contributions.

[SaucyJack 3487]

42 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

There is also a we are worried that we are going to be a racial minority in 15 years problem. 

[chainsaw 9836]

3 minutes ago, SaucyJack said:

Prime Chapelle was so great. Too bad he got too rich. Hasn't been the same ever since.

[elfenix 34169]

On 7/10/2022 at 12:45 PM, Bullneck said:

Just curious: which places fall into this category?

Quote

In 2008, Ecuador became the first country to enshrine the legal rights of nature in its constitution. Bolivia passed a similar law in 2011. Meanwhile, New Zealand in 2017 became the first country to grant a specific river legal rights, followed by the Indian state of Uttarakhand. This year, the city of Toledo, Ohio, passed what is known as the Lake Erie Bill of Rights to protect its shores, making it one of several U.S. communities to have passed legislation recognizing the rights of nature.

https://www.npr.org/2019/08/03/740604142/should-rivers-have-same-legal-rights-as-humans-a-growing-number-of-voices-say-ye

 

chile's new draft constitution, up for referendum in september, would also grant rights to nature. 

[immamac 42513]

28 minutes ago, WBT said:

There will also be a worker:SS beneficiary ratio problem

This is hilarious

[Celery Man 20881]

21 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Theoretically I can imagine my life as a mirkat, taking periodic sentry duty to help ward off predators.  I'm pretty sure my imagination wouldn't get very close to the reality.

[Neonmoon 38127]

8 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

I guess part of my point is that people with kids (especially people who had kids later in life) have a LOT better idea of what the childless experience is like compared to what childless people know about what it’s like to have kids

No person without kids knows what’s it’s like to have kids.
No person with kids knows what’s it’s like to not have kids. 

Anyone arguing otherwise is ignorant 

[Biggus Duckus 79]

4 hours ago, immamac said:

This is hilarious

How else will we keep the Ponzi scheme going if no new investors?

[immamac 42513]

16 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

No person without kids knows what’s it’s like to have kids.
No person with kids knows what’s it’s like to not have kids. 

Anyone arguing otherwise is ignorant 

This is untrue. There are tons of men who had kids in their 50s or even 60s without kids before. 

There are also tons of deadbeat pieces of shit who abandon their children after a short time and lead childless lives. 

[Neonmoon 38127]

1 hour ago, immamac said:

This is untrue. There are tons of men who had kids in their 50s or even 60s without kids before. 

There are also tons of deadbeat pieces of shit who abandon their children after a short time and lead childless lives. 

Point taken. There are definitely a variety of scenarios I was not thinking about, specifically the sperm donor that has a child but has never raised that child.

I was trying to point out (ineffectively) to the person who said someone who has kids knows a LOT more about the childless experience, than vice versa, was mistaken. Implying that the period before someone has kids is in no way similar to a person that can’t have kids. Specifically, in the same way a person who has never had a child could ever know the joy, pain, and anxiety of raising a child, the person who has a child could never know the joy, pain, and anxiety experienced of not having a child. 

[Sawbonz 27392]

10 hours ago, babysdaddy said:

China's population will be half of what it currently is by 2050.  

 

[The Original Greaser Bob 2785]

On 7/9/2022 at 12:58 PM, jimmyjazz said:

Our youngest is 18.  I can't imagine the world without him or his siblings.  This isn't to criticize your choice, but kids can be a blessing.  Maybe that's selfish.

Relative to the survival of the planet, it is.

[troph 24560]

11 hours ago, chainsaw said:

That was the original point if you go a few pages back. Someone was saying that you "need" capitalism for innovation. That's just not true though.

You’re talking about me and you blatantly misrepresent what I said. I said we need innovation like we’ve never seen it before to dig us out of the climate hole and capitalist economies are much better suited to do that than communist economies. There were a bunch of other points I made too about regulation and reform. I even agreed with you on US and Texas healthcare to a large extent. The fact is, you need to be more genuine in your characterization of others’ arguments if you want to be seen around here as anything other than a partisan troll. 

Edited July 12, 2022 by troph

[Snake Diggity 4614]

4 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

No person without kids knows what’s it’s like to have kids.
No person with kids knows what’s it’s like to not have kids. 

Anyone arguing otherwise is ignorant 

I had kids in my mid-late 30s.  To that point, I lived the experience of being childless.  Of course it’s not the same as being childless in my 50s or 60s or later.  But it’s a similar enough experience to give me a hell of a lot more insight into what not having kids is like vs the experiences a childless person has to reference against what it must be like to have kids.  Note, my comment was only in response to another childless poster(s) making assertions about the merits/demerits of having kids.

[Vegas64 660]

3 hours ago, immamac said:

This is untrue. There are tons of men who had kids in their 50s or even 60s without kids before. 

There are also tons of deadbeat pieces of shit who abandon their children after a short time and lead childless lives. 

https://www.jacksonville.com/obituaries/pfla0245589

Obituary

Send Flowers

“Lawrence H Pfaff Sr. was born in Belmont, NY, on April 16, 1941. He passed away on June 27, 2022, living a long life, much longer than he deserved. He is survived by his three children, no four. Oops, five children. Well as of 2022 we believe there is one more that we know about, but there could be more. His love was abundant when it came to himself, but for his children it was limited. From a young age, he was a ladies' man and an abusive alcoholic, solidifying his commitment to both with the path of destruction he left behind, damaging his adult children, and leaving them broken.

Lawrence, Sr's hobbies included abusing his first wife and children. He loved to start projects but never followed through on any of them. He enjoyed the life of a bar fly for many years and had a quaint little living space, studio, above his favorite hole in the wall, the club Nashville.

Lawrence, Sr. did spend over 20 years in the NYPD, but even his time in service was negligent at best. Because of his alcohol addiction, his Commanding Officer took away his gun and badge, replacing them with a broom until he could get his act together.

Lawrence, Sr. did claim to be clean and sober for over thirty years, but never worked any of the twelve steps, including the eighth and ninth steps with his children, making amends. He possesses no redeeming qualities for his children, including the ones he knew, and the "ones he knew about.”

It will be challenging to miss Lawrence, Sr. because he was narcissistic. He was incapable of love. Lawrence, Sr.'s passing proves that evil does eventually die, and it marks a time of healing, which will allow his children to get the closure they deserve. Lawrence, Sr. can be remembered for being a father to many, and a dad to none.”

Edited July 12, 2022 by Vegas64

[F250 28674]

13 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

in my experience trying to make children is the most joyful and fulfilling experience in life.

Fify

Even if birth control is involved.

 

[Gatorubet 30083]

11 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

It’s just an issue of balancing resources.  As the population ages, a higher % of resources ends up allocated to the elderly.  Elderly people can no longer work.  The burden of responsibility to provide their needs falls to the younger working people.  In a population with a sustained birth date >~2.3, there are plenty of young people such that providing for the elderly (whether it be funding social programs or directly caring for them) is no big deal.  Once the rate gets <~1.7 that burden starts to be very very heavy.

It’s like you fuckers just gave up on Mother Nature’s ability to mutate avian flu and the like.   Covid was a dry run. 

[chainsaw 9836]

12 hours ago, troph said:

You’re talking about me and you blatantly misrepresent what I said. I said we need innovation like we’ve never seen it before to dig us out of the climate hole and capitalist economies are much better suited to do that than communist economies. There were a bunch of other points I made too about regulation and reform. I even agreed with you on US and Texas healthcare to a large extent. The fact is, you need to be more genuine in your characterization of others’ arguments if you want to be seen around here as anything other than a partisan troll. 

I was fair to your argument. If you're trying to narrow the focus to climate change, there's very little evidence that we're doing more than China is right now to take it seriously. Virtually all solar panel production comes from there, and they don't allow knuckledraggers or coal barons to get in the way of bold action.

It was fair to characterize your argument as saying that capitalism is best, even if technically all you said was that it's better than communism. As I've said earlier, regulations are flouted regularly and will not suffice to offset the inherent inefficiencies and immorality of capitalism. The greedy bastards will always find a way to game the system.

[The Original Greaser Bob 2785]

Having children has worked out for me.  Very fulfilling.  But pretty basic biological function.  Wife wanted kids.  I could have waited.  As in forever.   

I know some childless lesbians who don't have any kids and spend all their rather large incomes on travel and nice homes.

Their life is pretty great.

Short version:  Spending a childless life with a chick you dig sounds like it could be great.

 

 

[chainsaw 9836]

2 hours ago, The Original Greaser Bob said:

Having children has worked out for me.  Very fulfilling.  But pretty basic biological function.  Wife wanted kids.  I could have waited.  As in forever.   

I know some childless lesbians who don't have any kids and spend all their rather large incomes on travel and nice homes.

Their life is pretty great.

Short version:  Spending a childless life with a chick you dig sounds like it could be great.

 

 

Raising a child is like green eggs and ham. Some folks need Sam I Am to realize they like it, some folks are born Sam I Am, and some folks either succeed in telling Sam I Am to fuck off or never meet him.

I also know parents that unapologetically and publicly regret having kids. Parenthood really should be planned.

[immamac 42513]

44 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Raising a child is like green eggs and ham. Some folks need Sam I Am to realize they like it, some folks are born Sam I Am, and some folks either succeed in telling Sam I Am to fuck off or never meet him.

I also know parents that unapologetically and publicly regret having kids. Parenthood really should be planned.

I don't regret having kids, but I don't fucking like it - I also have lots of childless friends and a very high income that I can't use to do anything I fucking want to do because I'm anchored to Austin by a young family. 

Drop of the hat meet your buddy in vegas? I can do that, except for my kids.

Get a call from RGBIII drunk as shit at the pool bar in Isla Mujeres, look at next flight out can be there in 5 hours? Nope sorry, have a kid.

Wanna go get drunk after a stressful day at work and vent with strangers or my friends? Nope can't have to wake up with my kid. 

Wanna go to the Alabama game and sponsor one of the larger tailgates on campus and host people who can't get tickets for the game so they can have a good time too since I own the largest UT Football Message board community? I have to hire a full day babysitter and somewhat pay attention to my child instead of talking to people who want to hang out and chat about future NIL donations or watch the game. Forget about even going into the game. 

Parenting for someone in their early 30s who can do whatever the fuck they want is legit the biggest boat anchor of all time and I don't really blame anyone who doesn't wanna do it especially in todays political, social and economic climate. That said - I'm not part of the problem since I've already breeded enough for replacement. 

[chainsaw 9836]

1 minute ago, immamac said:

I don't regret having kids, but I don't fucking like it - I also have lots of childless friends and a very high income that I can't use to do anything I fucking want to do because I'm anchored to Austin by a young family. 

Drop of the hat meet your buddy in vegas? I can do that, except for my kids.

Get a call from RGBIII drunk as shit at the pool bar in Isla Mujeres, look at next flight out can be there in 5 hours? Nope sorry, have a kid.

Wanna go get drunk after a stressful day at work and vent with strangers or my friends? Nope can't have to wake up with my kid. 

Wanna go to the Alabama game and sponsor one of the larger tailgates on campus and host people who can't get tickets for the game so they can have a good time too since I own the largest UT Football Message board community? I have to hire a full day babysitter and somewhat pay attention to my child instead of talking to people who want to hang out and chat about future NIL donations or watch the game. Forget about even going into the game. 

Parenting for someone in their early 30s who can do whatever the fuck they want is legit the biggest boat anchor of all time and I don't really blame anyone who doesn't wanna do it especially in todays political, social and economic climate. That said - I'm not part of the problem since I've already breeded enough for replacement. 

These are big drawbacks, but you feel less FOMO if all your friends are settled down too and not inviting you to all this shit that requires an open schedule. I think you're making a good point though. It's definitely not for everyone and anyone who suggests otherwise is a smug asshole.

[Bama Chick 28596]

I don't regret having kids, but I don't fucking like it - I also have lots of childless friends and a very high income that I can't use to do anything I fucking want to do because I'm anchored to Austin by a young family. 
Drop of the hat meet your buddy in vegas? I can do that, except for my kids.
Get a call from RGBIII drunk as shit at the pool bar in Isla Mujeres, look at next flight out can be there in 5 hours? Nope sorry, have a kid.
Wanna go get drunk after a stressful day at work and vent with strangers or my friends? Nope can't have to wake up with my kid. 
Wanna go to the Alabama game and sponsor one of the larger tailgates on campus and host people who can't get tickets for the game so they can have a good time too since I own the largest UT Football Message board community? I have to hire a full day babysitter and somewhat pay attention to my child instead of talking to people who want to hang out and chat about future NIL donations or watch the game. Forget about even going into the game. 
Parenting for someone in their early 30s who can do whatever the fuck they want is legit the biggest boat anchor of all time and I don't really blame anyone who doesn't wanna do it especially in todays political, social and economic climate. That said - I'm not part of the problem since I've already breeded enough for replacement. 

Buy me a plane ticket and and a safe place to stay and I’ll come be the designated kid wrangler.

Don’t need game tickets as long as there’s a big TV.

I’ll teach them to say “Roll Tide” though.

[jimmyjazz 45538]

Man, talk about a deal-killer.

[immamac 42513]

5 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

Buy me a plane ticket and and a safe place to stay and I’ll come be the designated kid wrangler.

Don’t need game tickets as long as there’s a big TV.

I’ll teach them to say “Roll Tide” though.

PM sent, but you don't have to kid wrangle. You can just come and meet everyone lol

[elfenix 34169]

6 hours ago, chainsaw said:

I was fair to your argument. If you're trying to narrow the focus to climate change, there's very little evidence that we're doing more than China is right now to take it seriously. Virtually all solar panel production comes from there, and they don't allow knuckledraggers or coal barons to get in the way of bold action.

It was fair to characterize your argument as saying that capitalism is best, even if technically all you said was that it's better than communism. As I've said earlier, regulations are flouted regularly and will not suffice to offset the inherent inefficiencies and immorality of capitalism. The greedy bastards will always find a way to game the system.

this isn't quite true

Quote

The Rock Standing in the Way of China’s Climate Ambitions: Coal

Beijing’s new development blueprint is meant to steer the country to carbon neutrality before 2060, but companies and regions dependent on the fossil fuel aren’t making it easy.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/16/world/asia/china-coal-politics.html