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2022 MLB Draft

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Helobious

Helobious 9489

Posted
Posted (edited)
44 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

Melendez, Ardoin, and Hansen have been drafted off the current squad. Good luck in the minor leagues gentlemen.

Coffey and Bolte are probably gone from the signing class.

Anybody else we should be worried about?

Jalin Flores. Very wide range of predictions on him though. High on some boards not high on others. Reminds me of Tyler Gonzales (also from SA, also a UT commit, also from a big baseball playing family) a decade ago.

*(fun fact Gonzales is now the lead singer in a pop punk band) 

Edited by Helobious
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cafe society

cafe society 2879

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

Unlike Ardoin, he might have a shot.

Hodo, Silas, Pete, and Melendez all gone. Just Faltine left out of the guys likely to be drafted.

Cox, Bolte, and Coffey gone from the signing class. Anybody else we should be worried about?

Son of former big leaguer Danny Ardoin, Silas is one of the best defensive catchers in the draft class and has shown enough contact skills to project as a solid backup in the majors who could end up more if he gets to better contact. He’s a plus defender with a plus arm, getting strong reports from scouts in all aspects of catching. At the plate, he has good hand-eye coordination, but struggles with good velocity and hasn’t hit well against breaking stuff either, with his .276/.399/.526 line this year by far his best, including 12 of his 13 career homers for the Longhorns.

 

He offers a high floor as a Reese McGuire-type backup, and perhaps some team thinks they can convert his ability to put the ball in play into more production.

 

 

Keith Law
Keith Law·
Senior Writer, MLB
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Valmy77

Valmy77 13328

Posted
Posted (edited)

I meant of playing for the Orioles. I was referring to the current Chosen One(tm) for the club being Rutschman who is a catcher. I wasn't being entirely serious but Silas clearly has a lot of work to do to be a major league hitter in any case. As that scout says he projects as a backup catcher.

Edited by Valmy77
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ztejas

ztejas 43628

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4 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

Are we getting to the point where Faltine might be better off staying another year and getting an NIL deal and hoping his bat ticks up a bit more to get into the top 5 rounds next year?

Yes. Which is weird to me. Teams must be extremely wary of his hitting. 

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Valmy77

Valmy77 13328

Posted
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1 minute ago, ztejas said:

Yes. Which is weird to me. Teams must be extremely wary of his hitting. 

Well he currently is a strike out machine. He still hits well enough for college but against better pitching I think he might be an automatic out and an unproductive one at that. I can get up there and strike out a lot.

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40acredropout

40acredropout 2908

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

Are we getting to the point where Faltine might be better off staying another year and getting an NIL deal and hoping his bat ticks up a bit more to get into the top 5 rounds next year?

I thought this was coming and I think he is at that point.

He needs to show that he is capable of adjusting his approach and cutting K's to something SORTA passable (25-30% K rate).  That proof of development plus his other tools should put him in the 3rd-5th rounds next draft.  That will likely be a couple hundred thousand dollars in bonus and I think that is meaningful enough for a kid who is a long shot to ever make it to the bigs with the swing-and-miss in his game.

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Posted
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1 minute ago, Valmy77 said:

I meant of playing for the Orioles. I was referring to the current Chosen One(tm) for the club being Rutschman who is a catcher. I wasn't being entirely serious but Silas clearly has a lot of work to do to be a major league hitter in any case. As that scout says he projects as a backup catcher.

Being a reliable backup catcher is not failure; you didn't say that, I know.  Catchers get injured all the time, a defense-first C who has a little pop is quite valuable.

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40acredropout

40acredropout 2908

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8 minutes ago, Rickylovesweed said:

That was the worry based on all the draft profiles and scouting reports. Too many strikeouts. 

This.  1381 D1 hitters with 200 PA's.  Trey had 5th highest K rate (36%).   That's higher than the highest MLB rate from last season-  Joey Gallo at 34.6%.   

Trey can be elite at SS and shows projectable power but none of that will matter if he can't reduce his K's.  If he came back and got that rate down to 25%, he'd be a top 3 rounder. 

Slot value for where Reds took him is $219k, last pick of 3rd round slot this year was $577k.  I'd love to see him back selfishly but I also think he could really do well for himself financially if he could take that step forward with us.

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Rickylovesweed

Rickylovesweed 14556

Posted
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1 minute ago, Valmy77 said:

Now we are just on the Jalin Flores watch. This year feels more typical where we watch all of our hopes die pick by pick rather than last year where it went our way.

True but none of this is really a surprise outside of Cox. 

Getting just Flores on campus and Southard back would be a win based on where everyone was projected to be drafted. 

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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 52696

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Is it fair to assume that swing and miss % and k% are shown to increase from college to pro ball?  Or is the instruction and increased workload something that generally mitigates the difference in pitching?

i can see why teams would be scared of trey if his k% is predicted to go up and his babip is predicted to go down.  That would make for a lot of unproductive PAs. 

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40acredropout

40acredropout 2908

Posted
Posted (edited)
45 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Is it fair to assume that swing and miss % and k% are shown to increase from college to pro ball?  

Yes.  Often significantly.  

Here are college bats taken in first two rounds of 2021 draft:

image.thumb.png.a155df2a144127ceadc38a4ed4c0ddf6.png

These are more polished bats than Trey and pretty much all see pretty meaningful increased K rates.  Worth mentioning that guys often see their K rate climb as they rise through the minors and the Minors stats above are mostly complied against lower level minor pitching.

Trey was at 40.2% K% in Big 12 Play.  So yeah... he will get absolutely feasted on by minor league pitching without a MAJOR change in approach.  

Edited by 40acredropout
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40acredropout

40acredropout 2908

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1 minute ago, Valmy77 said:

Murph was out of eligibility anyway right? I know he was a 5th year guy but with COVID I can't be sure.

He spent 2 years at OCC before his first year with us in 2020.  So unless there was some additional waiver/medical redshirt , I believe that means 2022 was his extra COVID year and he's out of eligibility. 

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rvm96

rvm96 1643

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On 7/18/2022 at 2:57 PM, 40acredropout said:

This.  1381 D1 hitters with 200 PA's.  Trey had 5th highest K rate (36%).   That's higher than the highest MLB rate from last season-  Joey Gallo at 34.6%.   

Trey can be elite at SS and shows projectable power but none of that will matter if he can't reduce his K's.  If he came back and got that rate down to 25%, he'd be a top 3 rounder. 

Slot value for where Reds took him is $219k, last pick of 3rd round slot this year was $577k.  I'd love to see him back selfishly but I also think he could really do well for himself financially if he could take that step forward with us.

If my memory serves me right only 3 picks in the first 10 rounds didn't sign last year. 1 was Kumar with the injury issue. 1 was Fabian because the Red Sox are stupid and picked a guy that had an agreement with another team. The third was the Astros with Alex Ulloa. Nobody has been able to say why on that one.

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