Welcome to Wrexham

[A-Tex Devil 2451]

The finale was well done.  There is an instinct in many, I think, to see this thing as shameless self promotion for Ryan and Rob. And look, there is something to that.  
 

But these dudes are so fucking earnest, man.  In the penultimate episode when Charlie Day, while crying because Wrexham scored, told Rob “I’m happy because I’m worried about you, man” - that was some real shit there.  
 

So in the finale when you see the town celebrate, it’s just fucking awesome that these guys have helped make this happen.  
 

And it very well looks like they’ll be in League One next year.  A long way to go and their defense is shit.  But they are sitting firmly in a promotion spot. 

[Pig Bellmont 8719]

8 hours ago, A-Tex Devil said:

And it very well looks like they’ll be in League One next year.  

It’s too early for these kinds of statements 

[Captain Ron 12886]

12 hours ago, A-Tex Devil said:

The finale was well done.  There is an instinct in many, I think, to see this thing as shameless self promotion for Ryan and Rob. And look, there is something to that.  
 

But these dudes are so fucking earnest, man.  In the penultimate episode when Charlie Day, while crying because Wrexham scored, told Rob “I’m happy because I’m worried about you, man” - that was some real shit there.  
 

So in the finale when you see the town celebrate, it’s just fucking awesome that these guys have helped make this happen.  
 

And it very well looks like they’ll be in League One next year.  A long way to go and their defense is shit.  But they are sitting firmly in a promotion spot. 

 

I would say that if you've watched a few episodes that actually delve into Wexham the town and the culture, you realize that this is certainly not shameless self promotion. The genuinely want this team to succeed and bring the town with it. Sure, there is an element of self promotion going on, but they genuinely want this to be more about the club and the town.

 

I would note, like Pig - there is little certain about promotion. They are near the top of the standings, but are a single point from falling to the promotion playoff and 7 points from missing the playoff. And the margins at this level are much thinner than they were in the National League, the wrong injury or a stretch of bad play at the wrong time, and they could fall down the standings quickly.

And while promotion is a major goal of this team, it should be noted that even if they simply stay in League 2, they are still in a really good position, being in the EFL.

[Ted Lange 16110]

Last 5 non-covid seasons, the last auto-promoted team ended with 83, 80, 80, 70 & 79 points.

80 points is 1.74 points per match, Wrexham need to average 1.62 ppm in the last 2/3 of the season to reach 80.

[The Dog 44071]

someone explain this to me:

 

[TonyTexas 10518]

17 minutes ago, The Dog said:

someone explain this to me:

Maybe read the statement linked to the tweet? In a nutshell, the club is taking over the lease from WST for £187m and a small annual payment. This needed to done to do stadium upgrades. 

[The Dog 44071]

9 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

Maybe read the statement linked to the tweet?

I did and didn't quite understand it. 

[Captain Ron 12886]

As far as the lease itself, that was started back in 2002 when the shite owner had the club. He leased the stadium for 125 years from the then owner (a brewery). He would buy the grounds later and renegotiated the lease and then kicked the team out (to redevelop the land). That went to court and forced the owners out. The trust took over the lease (and the team and the grounds) and when they sold the grounds to the local university, they kept the lease (as a way to protect the club from another bad owner).

This chapter we are following all started Rob and Ryan bought the club. They would later buy the stadium back. The WST held the lease just to be sure about the new owners. But it was felt once they proved their worth as owners, they would turn it over.

Edited November 20, 2023 by Captain Ron

[The Dog 44071]

2 hours ago, Captain Ron said:

This chapter we are following all started Rob and Ryan bought the club. They would later buy the stadium back. The WST held the lease just to be sure about the new owners. But it was felt once they proved their worth as owners, they would turn it over.

that's what confused me - I remember all of that discussion but then when I read that statement I was like "wait, don't they already own the stadium?" now it makes sense.

[Grimas 670]

No updates in awhile so I checked and they are 2nd in the division

[The Dog 44071]

Third now due to goal differential. 

[Captain Ron 12886]

On 11/16/2023 at 12:51 AM, A-Tex Devil said:

The finale was well done.  There is an instinct in many, I think, to see this thing as shameless self promotion for Ryan and Rob. And look, there is something to that.  
 

But these dudes are so fucking earnest, man.  In the penultimate episode when Charlie Day, while crying because Wrexham scored, told Rob “I’m happy because I’m worried about you, man” - that was some real shit there.  
 

So in the finale when you see the town celebrate, it’s just fucking awesome that these guys have helped make this happen.  
 

And it very well looks like they’ll be in League One next year.  A long way to go and their defense is shit.  But they are sitting firmly in a promotion spot. 

I went back and watched the finale the other day. It was great from showing them win the game.

 

But I thought the finale could have been so much more. I would have loved to have seen the town and the fans take that In. I mean we watched this team get promoted (I remember watching that game the secured the title), so I knew what that day was like. But I would have loved to see more from the town - how the fans were in the days that followed. I think there was a story there that was missed and could have been told.

I also think that the the race put on by Notts County and them securing promotion was also glossed over. They had to claw and scratch to win the playoff. In the semi-final, they were down well into stoppage time before they equalized and then won on a 120' goal. In the Final they scored late again to tie it (87') and had to score in overtime to send it to penalties. That was a crazy run and it was distilled down to just the clenching PK.

 

Still, the story was great, hope next season is good too.

[Captain Ron 12886]

Wrexham was blasted out of the FA cup today 4-1 in Blackburn (of the Championship). No dramatic run this year.

Though National League’s Maidstone United did pull a shocker beating Ipswich Town (also of the Championship). 

[RamjetFDO 10577]

Sir Anthony says "roar".

[The Dog 44071]

 

[Pato del Muerto 52535]

That feels closer to real time than previous seasons.  Their last league match is April 27, so either this season won’t be focused on the first season in L2 or they know their editing time now and can get the later eps done in time?

and, apparently they need to shore up their defense and/or goalkeeping.  40 goals against, when the teams around them are mid 20s or 30s. 

Edited February 9 by Pato del Muerto

[The Dog 44071]

10 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

That feels closer to real time than previous seasons.  Their last league match is April 27, so either this season won’t be focused on the first season in L2 or they know their editing time now and can get the later eps done in time?

and, apparently they need to shore up their defense and/or goalkeeping.  40 goals against, when the teams around them are mid 20s or 30s. 

that number is skewed by early season Ben Foster being really bad.

[RamjetFDO 10577]

Wrexham up 1-nil at the half against Notts County.

[Pato del Muerto 52535]

Was perusing the league 2 table this morning and matches remaining. It looks to me like if wrexham can beat the remaining teams that are in the lower half of the table, they very likely finish no worse than third and get the auto promotion.  13 more points doesn’t lock anything up but I think it would be a very comfortable position. 
 

L2 championship- probably need to win out.  Even that doesn’t guarantee it. Might could drop points in one match as long as it isn’t Mansfield (next week) or Stockport. 

Edited March 23 by Pato del Muerto

[Grimas 670]

They move into a tie for 2nd with the win yesterday.

[Captain Ron 12886]

7 hours ago, Grimas said:

They move into a tie for 2nd with the win yesterday.

No, they are still 3rd. They are level on points, but way down on goal differential.

Still things look good. They are 3 points clear of the playoff and have a game in hand on 4th place. They are 1 point off the top spot and play that team in the final 6 games. Promotion is in their hands, and a shot at the title is very possible. 

[Grimas 670]

Ahh, just looked at points and not GD…

[Pato del Muerto 52535]

It’s the 5th place team that has a better shot to pass them than 4th due to a game in hand.  Wrexham need to tcb these next 4, with the first two on the road. 
 

one cool thing about how these leagues are set up is most teams have something to play for- either championship/auto promotion, or to get/stay in the promotion tourney and seeding therein, or to stay above relegation.  Makes for a lot of motivated teams up and down the table. 
 

post script- is there any financial benefit from the league for winning it, or just pride and championship merch sales?

Edited March 30 by Pato del Muerto

[Captain Ron 12886]

3 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

post script- is there any financial benefit from the league for winning it, or just pride and championship merch sales?

Yes and yes. Like the EPL there are tiered payouts for finishing position. So if you win you get more money. 

[Napoleon 8692]

10 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

It’s the 5th place team that has a better shot to pass them than 4th due to a game in hand.  Wrexham need to tcb these next 4, with the first two on the road. 
 

one cool thing about how these leagues are set up is most teams have something to play for- either championship/auto promotion, or to get/stay in the promotion tourney and seeding therein, or to stay above relegation.  Makes for a lot of motivated teams up and down the table. 
 

post script- is there any financial benefit from the league for winning it, or just pride and championship merch sales?

 

Wrexham has 73 pts & 24 GD

4th place has 70 pts & 14 GD
5th place has 67 pts & 15 GD, but game in hand.

So 4th has already gotten the extra win to get to 70 pts. 5th place still needs to get the win just to be 3 points back and a still a nearly insurmountable GD.

IN OTHER NEWS:

https://www.sportico.com/leagues/soccer/2024/wrexham-annual-revenue-jumps-losses-soar-1234772931/amp/
 

Wrexham FC is almost like having the NY Yankees in your league. 

Edited March 31 by Napoleon

[Pato del Muerto 52535]

4 hours ago, Napoleon said:

Wrexham has 73 pts & 24 GD

4th place has 70 pts & 14 GD
5th place has 67 pts & 15 GD, but game in hand.

So 4th has already gotten the extra win to get to 70 pts. 5th place still needs to get the win just to be 3 points back and a still a nearly insurmountable GD

4th has played 41 matches, 5th only 39.

[Captain Ron 12886]

6 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

4th has played 41 matches, 5th only 39.

The key thing is that Wrexham is at 40 games. They are up 6 points on Barrow (5th) so barrow only has 1 extra game, so they need a lot of help to pass Wrexham.

 

[Napoleon 8692]

10 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

4th has played 41 matches, 5th only 39.

I stand corrected. 

Minimal sleep in the last 36 hours and I missed the “41 matches played”.

👏👏

5th does indeed have the better shot at Wrexham. 

[Pato del Muerto 52535]

3 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

I stand corrected. 

Minimal sleep in the last 36 hours and I missed the “41 matches played”.

👏👏

5th does indeed have the better shot at Wrexham. 

Salud

[Captain Ron 12886]

I was going to do a breakdown of the run ins for each of the top teams, but I am going to wait until after today's game, Stockport-AFC Wimbledon (kicking off as I post this), because those teams are in the the race at the top (Stockport for the title and Wimbledon is trying to get into the promotion playoff.

[Captain Ron 12886]

🤦‍♂️

I was only looking at Stockport's schedule at the time - today is actually a full slate of League 2 game, the only teams not in action today: Doncaster-Wrexham (play tomorrow) and Mansfield Town (2nd place)-Accrington Stanley which was just postponed (waterlogged field).

[The Dog 44071]

5th place Barrow took the L today so they remain 6 points back. If Wrexham can win tomorrow they'll be in very good shape to get promotion.

Chesterfield - the team Notts beat to earn promotion last year - ran away with the National League this season and locked up the title about a week ago. 

[Pato del Muerto 52535]

13 minutes ago, The Dog said:

5th place Barrow took the L today

Huge for wrexham 

barrow can only get to 85 now, mk only to 83 with their draw. 
 

and tomorrows opponent Doncaster is one of those teams with nothing really to play for (other than to beat the Hollywood team if that’s a thing) as they are well clear of relegation and 10 points short of 7th position. 

Edited April 1 by Pato del Muerto

[Captain Ron 12886]

Today was a good day for results for Wrexham, in terms of staying out of the promotion playoff. MK Dons drew, Barrow lost, Crewe Alexandra lost. Stockport won, so they are 4 points clear at the top.

So let's look at the run in for the top few teams:

1. Stockport - 77 points, +39 Goal Differential, 40 Matches Played
2. Mansfield Town - 73 P, +40 GD, 40 MP
3. Wrexham - 73, +24, 40
4. MK Dons - 71, +14, 42
5. Barrow - 67, +14, 40
6. Crewe Alexandra - 66, +9, 41

I am picking this top 6, because 7th is 4 points back on Crewe and 7 seems like a good distance with ~5 games to play.

My guess is that Mansfield Town-Accrington Stanley will be played tomorrow, though it could be moved to the 16th. We will see.

Looking at every team:

Stockport - 1 game in hand over Wrexham - up 4, level on games (for now) is big. Wrexham needs them to drop points if they want to catch them. That GD also is too far in Stockport's favor for Wrexham to have hope of ending even on points

Mansfield Town - 2 games against top 6 teams is rough (especially on the road). Their GD is also too far in their favor, Wrexham needs them to drop points to jump them.

Wrexham - If they win tomorrow, we are only talking the rest of the way if they can catch Stockport and Mansfield Town, the results today were awful for everyone behind Wrexham.

MK Dons - 4 games left, they probably are locked into the playoffs.

Barrow - bad loss today. Yes, they have a game in hand, but it might not be enough.

Crewe Alexandra - Also a bad loss and without the game in hand, they are done.

 

[Pato del Muerto 52535]

A GD of 10 isn’t insurmountable, especially when contemplating scenarios in which those teams win their remaining matches, but I think 83 points does the job for wrexham. Would only require barrow to draw a match, and remain ahead on GD.  So 3 wins and a draw from promotion.  2 matches vs the bottom 2 in the table, but will be playing to stay up most likely. 
 

as for the title- as you say they need both above them to drop points beyond the final game vs Stockport to even have a chance. 

Edited April 1 by Pato del Muerto

[Pato del Muerto 52535]

23 hours ago, Captain Ron said:

My guess is that Mansfield Town-Accrington Stanley will be played tomorrow, though it could be moved to the 16th. We will see.

16th

wrexham are the only match on the docket today. 

Edited April 2 by Pato del Muerto

[Captain Ron 12886]

1 hour ago, Pato del Muerto said:

16th

wrexham are the only match on the docket today. 

 

 

That makes a little more sense. 1 days turnaround would have been tough, this gives people 2 weeks to get their schedules cleared.

[Captain Ron 12886]

Not a good loss today. This likely keeps Wrexham in danger of falling to the playoff. Probably cost them a shot at the title too. 

Edited April 2 by Captain Ron

[Pato del Muerto 52535]

Title gone. This should ensure the race for 3rd goes down to the wire also, or damn close to it.  As seems to be the case with this club since the rob and Ryan experience bagan. 

[Captain Ron 12886]

Well they are almost home for promotion. A win today, combined with losses by Barrow and Mansfield Town bumped them into 2nd and moved them 3 clear of the playoff slots. The math is a little weirder with games in hand, but they are really close. 

[Captain Ron 12886]

The title was probably blown mid week. Wrexham’s max points is 88 now. So Stockport will clinch with 9 points in their final 5 games.

on the flip side 83 should get them in the top 3. That’s the max points for MK Dons and Burrow. 

Edited April 6 by Captain Ron

[Pato del Muerto 52535]

It looks like mk top out at 83 points and barrow at 82.  Barrow and Mansfield town play on the last match day so they can’t both collect all their remaining points.  Mansfield also gets mk next Saturday so someone will drop points there too. 
 

Feels like 6 more points will do it for wrexham, and one is against bottom of table forest green.  Don’t know how dangerous a bad team trying to stay up is, but it’ll be at the racecourse so should expect the full 3 there. 
 

Then there’s two against teams working for playoff position. 
 

if Stockport have the title secured before the last match day, as it looks like they may, perhaps they lack intensity. 

[The Dog 44071]

They’re in good shape. Getting promoted in their first season would be quite an accomplishment.

Notts are currently 15th with almost no shot at the playoffs. They won’t be going up with them if Wrexham pulls this off.

[Captain Ron 12886]

I'm taking Barrow and Crewe Alexandra off the chart since they are down 9 points each. Even with the game in hand, Barrow is potentially on 6 down, big ask with 4 to play.

Date	Stockport (80 pts)	Wrexham (76)	MK Dons (74)	Mansfield Town (73)
9-Apr	at Colchester (23rd)	Crawley Town (7th)		Forest Green (24th)
13-Apr	Morecambe (10th)	Forest Green (24th)	Mansfield Town (4th)	at MK Dons (3rd)
16-Apr	at Notts County (15th)			Accrington Stanley (18th)
20-Apr	Accrington Stanley (18th)	at Crewe Alexandra (6th)	at Harrogate Town (13th)	Gillingham (11th)
27-Apr	at Wrexham (2nd)	Stockport (1st)	Sutton United (22nd)	at Barrow (5th)

 

 

 

 

Given the H2H of Mansfield Town/MK Dons that means on or both of them aren't going to make their max points (MK Dons 83, Mansfield 88). That gives Wexham an edge in getting automatic promotion. 

Given that final game between Stockport and Wrexham, what Wrexham really needs is Stockport to drop points in 2 games of their next 4 (and not drop points themselves), if that happens they have a chance to snatch the title in the final game.

 

It's going to be an interesting race.

[The Dog 44071]

They kicked the crap out of Crawley today 4-1. 

Based on quick math it appears that if Wrexham gets any result from their last 3 and Mansfield beats MK Dons that they are in great shape to get promoted due to a pretty significant (+11) GD advantage.

ETA - Barrow's match was postponed today so they will still be mathematically alive but will have to play a lot of soccer in the next few weeks.

Edited April 9 by The Dog

[Pato del Muerto 52535]

Yep, good day for wrexham’s chances. 3 more points at home against the worst team in the league on Saturday wouldn’t clinch anything without a little help, but it would put their chances at near certainty. 

[Captain Ron 12886]

Key results:

Colcheter 1 - Stockport 2 - this reduces the magic number of Stockport to 6 in their final 4 games.

Mansfield Town 1 Forest Green 0 - This bumps them into 3rd ahead of MK Dons

Wrexham 4 Crawley Town 1 - Hold onto 2nd spot and increase their GD

At this point Wrexham is clear of everyone but Burrow (who can still pass Wrexham) and MK Dons (who Wrexham will pass with any points in their final 3 games).

  

[Pato del Muerto 52535]

If Mansfield town can take care of mk dons on Saturday then that’s taken care of.  A draw would be best result for wrexham there. 

[Captain Ron 12886]

That Barrow postponement is going to make a mess of the schedule. Every date for the rest of the year was filled. They can probably play the week before the last game but it would jam up their schedule. 

[Captain Ron 12886]

6 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

If Mansfield town can take care of mk dons on Saturday then that’s taken care of.  A draw would be best result for wrexham there. 

I was just doing some quick back of the napkin math. If Wrexham wins Saturday, they will clinch promotion with MK Dons and Barrow dropping points. Because of GD, the win would likely KO Barrow regardless of their result.

Mansfield Town drawing would help their overall result.

As far as winning the league, Wrexham needs Stockport to drop points in two games before the finale, and one of those needs to be a loss.