Recession talk 2022-2023

[Voldemort86 2259]

Queue republicans going on all talk shows under the sun and saying the same thing “we’re in a recession! Hunker down! Invest in gold!”. The Q2 GDP fell by 0.9% and the first quarter GDP was low mainly because of supply chain issues.

Republicans always resort to fear mongering because they have nothing to offer. If they take control of both chambers of congress, things will devolve into a horror show of pointless investigations into hunter biden and the 2020 election that is 110% legitimate.

You want to know what a recession is really like?
 

Get back to me when this recession is like 2009 when I went into a group interview vying with 40 other people for ONE call center job paying $9 an hour. That was what a real recession was like.

Weakest recession ever, when 5 businesses within 1 mile of me all have signs saying you can start work the same day. I went to Ross the other day and they had a sign saying "16 and 17 year olds welcome to apply!" LOL!!

 

repubs are a joke. We won’t go back to that because of all the baby boomers retiring. Workers have more power now.

[Incredulity 11555]

22 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

We won’t go back to that because of all the baby boomers retiring. Workers have more power now.

Workers are about to get cunt punted.   The leverage they have enjoyed the last two years will largely be nullified by the end of Q4.  Prepare for something closer to multiple applications for openings rather than multiple openings per worker.

[Voldemort86 2259]

4 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Workers are about to get cunt punted.   The leverage they have enjoyed the last two years will largely be nullified by the end of Q4.  Prepare for something closer to multiple applications for openings rather than multiple openings per worker.

Demographics should still mitigate some of the damage. 
 

The big problem with 2008-2015 was you had the biggest generation at the time ( baby boomers) entrenched in their careers and things were compounded by the bush administration actually encouraging companies to outsource jobs by giving them a tax break to do it before the Great Recession hit.

The millennials which are now the biggest generation, were trying to break into the work force while all of this shit was going down. To make matters worse, baby boomers didn’t retire and clutched their jobs like members of the senate hold onto a senate seat. We had 8% unemployment and 15%+ under employment.

Gen Z is starting to enter the work force and they’re much smaller than both millennials and the baby boomers. I just don’t see how unemployment and underemployment could be nearly as bad this time around. 

 

[Aqua Buddha 14521]

-0.9% against a +6.7% for Q2 last year.  Two year stack of +2.8%.  Oh, the horror.

[Neonmoon 38127]

The common worker is hurt by higher food and energy prices. Jobs are still easily available. 

This recession will mostly hurt wall street, which is why the people with investments are bitching the most. They don't give a fuck about the common worker. If they did, they would have voted for a plethora of bills that were proposed to address helping them, but they didn't. 

 

 

[David Dennison 18661]

8 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

The common worker is hurt by higher food and energy prices. Jobs are still easily available. 

This recession will mostly hurt wall street, which is why the people with investments are bitching the most. They don't give a fuck about the common worker. If they did, they would have voted for a plethora of bills that were proposed to address helping them, but they didn't. 

This. Workers have been getting the short end of the stick in this country for 50 years now. The real problem is the one way distribution of wealth. 

Edited July 28, 2022 by David Dennison

[Voldemort86 2259]

12 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

The common worker is hurt by higher food and energy prices. Jobs are still easily available. 

This recession will mostly hurt wall street, which is why the people with investments are bitching the most. They don't give a fuck about the common worker. If they did, they would have voted for a plethora of bills that were proposed to address helping them, but they didn't. 

 

 

We saw how much bitching Grover norquist and dickheads like him complained about laid off / furloughed workers receiving unemployment benefits in 2020 while they simultaneously sucked up all the government money they could to bail out their companies or firms.

The republicans were wrong again ( as usual), giving unemployment to workers didn’t cause the labor shortage. It’s the fact that we lost 1 million people to covid, have 100,00 folks suffering from long covid, and the aforementioned demographic changes which favor workers.

[Incredulity 11555]

1 minute ago, Voldemort86 said:

It’s the fact that we lost 1 million people to covid

single digit percentage of the 1 million were working age people under 50.

[David Dennison 18661]

1 minute ago, Incredulity said:

single digit percentage of the 1 million were working age people under 50.

What's the percentage of working people over 50?

Edited July 28, 2022 by David Dennison

[elfenix 34171]

21 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

The common worker is hurt by higher food and energy prices. Jobs are still easily available. 

This recession will mostly hurt wall street, which is why the people with investments are bitching the most. They don't give a fuck about the common worker. If they did, they would have voted for a plethora of bills that were proposed to address helping them, but they didn't.

heard a good quote from claudia sahm on the make me smart pod the other day: "inflation is a hardship.  a recession is a crisis."

 

[Incredulity 11555]

1 minute ago, David Dennison said:

What's the percentage of working people over 50?

total below 65 is like 250K.  I think its like 180K 50-64.

[David Dennison 18661]

Just now, Incredulity said:

total below 65 is like 250K.  I think its like 180K 50-64.

And the workers over 65? Because there are a lot of them in this country.

[Incredulity 11555]

Just now, David Dennison said:

And the workers over 65? Because there are a lot of them in this country.

You will have to provide some statistics. 

[David Dennison 18661]

Just now, Incredulity said:

You will have to provide some statistics. 

Pre-COVID: https://www.aarp.org/work/careers/surging-older-workforce/

Post-COVID: https://blog.aarp.org/thinking-policy/declines-in-labor-market-participation-driven-by-retirement-among-workers-ages-65-and-older

[Voldemort86 2259]

12 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Pre-COVID: https://www.aarp.org/work/careers/surging-older-workforce/

Post-COVID: https://blog.aarp.org/thinking-policy/declines-in-labor-market-participation-driven-by-retirement-among-workers-ages-65-and-older

Covid sucks, but most of the folks over 65 should’ve retired already. Working until you’re 80 or until you die is nuts in my opinion.

[Incredulity 11555]

27 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Pre-COVID: https://www.aarp.org/work/careers/surging-older-workforce/

Post-COVID: https://blog.aarp.org/thinking-policy/declines-in-labor-market-participation-driven-by-retirement-among-workers-ages-65-and-older

10 Million workers over 65 in 2020 out of 160million total workers.

Quote

You might be surprised at the number of people 65 and older who are still employed. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) indicates that in 2020, 10.6 million people 65 and older were in the workforce.

55 Million people in the country over 65 in 2020, so 18% of people over 65 work.   1.3% of the total population over 65 died with Covid.

 

Doesn't seem like a significant blow to the labor force.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Bullneck 18987]

2 hours ago, Incredulity said:

Workers are about to get cunt punted.   The leverage they have enjoyed the last two years will largely be nullified by the end of Q4.  Prepare for something closer to multiple applications for openings rather than multiple openings per worker.

Cool!  Awesome!  Cunt punch those workers!  Yeaaaa!!!

 

Are you posting this because you're a billionaire who hates his workers and wished he could have slaves instead or are you unemployed and envious?

Edited July 28, 2022 by Bullneck

[Incredulity 11555]

15 minutes ago, Bullneck said:

Cool!  Awesome!  Cunt punch those workers!  Yeaaaa!!!

 

Are you posting this because you're a billionaire who hates his workers and wished he could have slaves instead or are you unemployed and envious?

It's just an anecdotal assessment of economic reality.  

[Aqua Buddha 14521]

20 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

10 Million workers over 65 in 2020 out of 160million total workers.

55 Million people in the country over 65 in 2020, so 18% of people over 65 work.   1.3% of the total population over 65 died with Covid.

 

Doesn't seem like a significant blow to the labor force.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A large number of those olds likely served as free partial child care for their grandkids.  Now, the parent has trouble finding child care and even if they do, it's expensive.

[Azbadlands 109]

3 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Republicans always resort to fear mongering because they have nothing to offer. If they take control of both chambers of congress, things will devolve into a horror show of pointless investigations into hunter biden and the 2020 election that is 110% legitimate.

 

So, it will be like the Democrats in Congress when Trump was President?  This has been a bad precedent for a while...

[Hefeweizen 5307]

36 minutes ago, Bullneck said:

Cool!  Awesome!  Cunt punch those workers!  Yeaaaa!!!

 

Are you posting this because you're a billionaire who hates his workers and wished he could have slaves instead or are you unemployed and envious?

A: he’s a troll.

[Goodman 3273]

We are not in a recession. No, we are not. Can't be. Nope. Definition has changed. It has. Really, it has. Take this free bread, you're my friend. Trust me.

[Biff Tannen 45499]

Well this seems good, no?

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/29/business/stock-market-july.html

Quote

July turned out to be the best month for Wall Street’s stock investors since November 2020, a rally fueled by better than expected financial results from some of America’s biggest companies and bets that the Federal Reserve could curtail its policy of constraining the economy sooner than previously expected.

 

Spoiler

The S&P 500 rose 1.4 percent Friday, taking its gain for July to 9.1 percent, its best month since the first announcements about an effective Covid-19 vaccine helped send stocks nearly 11 percent higher in November 2020.

It’s a sharp change of tone after a particularly difficult stretch. Investor sentiment was buoyed by signs that some of America’s biggest companies are managing to weather economic headwinds, including slowing growth and rising interest rates. This week, marquee tech names like Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet — whose size and performance drove the stock market to new highs in recent years — reported results that relieved investors. Shares of all four were higher for the week and the month.

 

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At the same time, investors appeared to take solace from the latest Federal Reserve meeting, interpreting the central bank to be willing to slow its pace of interest rate increases as the economy begins to cool. Rising interest rates increase costs for companies and weigh on profits, making investors attuned to signals of an easing in the Fed’s current policy.

 

 

“Despite pockets of weakness, earnings have been fine,” said Alex Atanasiu, a portfolio manager at Glenmede Investment Management. He added that despite the Fed raising interest rates on Wednesday, longer-dated Treasury yields, which help set borrowing costs worldwide, have fallen along with expectations for further interest rate increases, “and that bolsters equities.”

What the Fed’s Rate Increases Mean for You

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A toll on borrowers. The Federal Reserve has been raising the federal funds rate, its key interest rate, as it tries to rein in inflation. By raising the rate, which is what banks charge one another for overnight loans, the Fed sets off a ripple effect. Whether directly or indirectly, a number of borrowing costs for consumers go up.

Consumer loans. Changes in credit card rates will closely track the Fed’s moves, so consumers can expect to pay more on any revolving debt. Car loan rates are expected to rise, too. Private student loan borrowers should also expect to pay more.

Mortgages. Mortgage rates don’t move in lock step with the federal funds rate, but track the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond, which is influenced by inflation and how investors expect the Fed to react to rising prices. Rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages have climbed above 5 percent this year, according to Freddie Mac, up from closer to 3 percent for most of 2021.

Banks. An increase in the Fed benchmark rate often means banks will pay more interest on deposits. Larger banks are less likely to pay consumers more, and online banks have already started raising some of their rates.

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Of the 278 companies in the S&P 500 to report earnings so far, 209 have beaten analyst expectations, according to Howard Silverblatt, a senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

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Amazon’s share price soared by more than 10 percent on Friday after its earnings report on Thursday, adding roughly $140 billion to the company’s market valuation. Amazon is among the best performing stocks over the past month, up over 27 percent. Because of its roughly $1.4 trillion market value and the way the S&P 500 index is weighted, that move had a big impact on the index’s performance.

 

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Only Apple, the world’s largest company with a market value of about $2.6 trillion, had a bigger effect on the S&P 500 this month. Apple’s shares jumped almost 19 percent in July.

 

 

There were bright spots elsewhere as well. European stocks rose nearly 8 percent for the month, despite concerns over Italy’s economic and political health and rising fears of a natural gas shortage heading into winter. In corporate bond markets, the debt of riskier, “junk”-rated companies returned over 5 percent, according to an index run by Bloomberg, which had its best one-month performance since October 2011.

Yet despite the strong performance, some investors remain wary, cautioning that the recent rally could unwind itself just as quickly.

“I think we are going to go through a tough time in the second half of the year, where the economic data continues to show growth eroding and inflation might not come down as fast as people are hoping,” said David Donabedian, chief investment officer of CIBC’s U.S. private wealth business.

The move higher is a reflection that the current round of updates from corporate America are not as bad as feared, which is different than those results being good. Investors pushed the S&P 500 down over 8 percent in June, ahead of the current crop of earnings results, and the index remains around 14 percent below its peak in January.

Some investors also said that there is a willingness to keep buying stocks while inflation is so high because other, safer assets do not offer the returns that allow them to defend against the eroding effect of rising prices.

“I am not as sanguine as the market seems to be,” said Lauren Goodwin, an economist at New York Life Investments. “But running for the hills when inflation is so high is just a drag on returns. We have to stay invested.”

 

[David Dennison 18661]

Doesn't matter. The college educated liberal elite will be fine so that means the working class has to embrace authoritarianism because gas prices or something.

[Biff Tannen 45499]

Seriously though, I can't square the stock market and the largest corporations kicking ass with low unemployment, but we are also in a recession and everyone should panic.

[David Dennison 18661]

5 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Seriously though, I can't square the stock market and the largest corporations kicking ass with low unemployment, but we are also in a recession and everyone should panic.

It's almost like they're raising prices and posting record profits to make up for the revenue they lost during a worldwide pandemic.

Naaaaah, that's too cynical.

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

16 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Seriously though, I can't square the stock market and the largest corporations kicking ass with low unemployment, but we are also in a recession and everyone should panic.

GOP is trying to manufacture a recession with fear mongering so they can win at the polls. 

[Biff Tannen 45499]

1 hour ago, Voldemort86 said:

GOP is trying to manufacture a recession with fear mongering so they can win at the polls. 

And it will work.

[Guest]

I know we're a select crowd here, but is anyone personally seeing signs of recession? Are you cutting spending? Been laid off? Downsized plans? It's a serious question. I'm not really seeing anything other than the market has fallen.

Inflation? I own a home and I feel like housing costs has been the biggest issue. But gas? I drive a minimal amount. Food, etc. isn't enough to really make me change habits. I feel like I was broken by inflation by being at UT when tuition was deregulated. I went from paying about $2,500 in tuition/fees a semester to roughly $4,500 as a broke college student in a matter of four years. That followed by seeing health insurance skyrocket over the past decade makes paying $75 to fill up a tank of gas once a month instead of $40 once a month seem like nothing.

This seems like an economy where everyone says "Man, it's terrible! I mean, not for me, but for everyone else."

Went to the beach this week, and I've never seen it so packed. $100 a day golf carts everywhere. Restaurants packed.

Edited July 29, 2022 by FirstTimeCaller

[Voldemort86 2259]

2 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

I know we're a select crowd here, but is anyone personally seeing signs of recession? Are you cutting spending? Been laid off? Downsized plans? It's a serious question. I'm not really seeing anything other than the market has fallen.

Inflation? I own a home and I feel like housing costs has been the biggest issue. But gas? I drive a minimal amount. Food, etc. isn't enough to really make me change habits. I feel like I was broken by inflation by being at UT when tuition was deregulated. I went from paying about $2,500 in tuition/fees a semester to roughly $4,500 as a broke college student in a matter of four years. That followed by seeing health insurance skyrocket over the past decade makes paying $75 to fill up a tank of gas once a month instead of $40 once a month seem like nothing.

This seems like an economy where everyone says "Man, it's terrible! I mean, not for me, but for everyone else."

Went to the beach this week, and I've never seen it so packed. $100 a day golf carts everywhere. Restaurants packed.

Airlines are cancelling flights due to excess demand. Companies are recording exceedingly high profits. Unemployment is 3.6%.  I personally think a lot of it is fear mongering crap.  I went to town yesterday and saw at least 5-10 help wanted signs while I was there again.

[fuggled 576]

20 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Airlines are cancelling flights due to excess demand.

Wait, what?

[Voldemort86 2259]

13 minutes ago, fuggled said:

Wait, what?

Too many people want to fly and not enough workers to serve them.

[Biff Tannen 45499]

I am only filling my tank about halfway, but that's more of a principle thing, not because I can't afford it.

[Snake Diggity 4614]

1 hour ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

I know we're a select crowd here, but is anyone personally seeing signs of recession? Are you cutting spending? Been laid off? Downsized plans? It's a serious question. I'm not really seeing anything other than the market has fallen.

Inflation? I own a home and I feel like housing costs has been the biggest issue. But gas? I drive a minimal amount. Food, etc. isn't enough to really make me change habits. I feel like I was broken by inflation by being at UT when tuition was deregulated. I went from paying about $2,500 in tuition/fees a semester to roughly $4,500 as a broke college student in a matter of four years. That followed by seeing health insurance skyrocket over the past decade makes paying $75 to fill up a tank of gas once a month instead of $40 once a month seem like nothing.

This seems like an economy where everyone says "Man, it's terrible! I mean, not for me, but for everyone else."

Went to the beach this week, and I've never seen it so packed. $100 a day golf carts everywhere. Restaurants packed.

Unignorable signs of inflation everywhere,  but not many signs of recession that I have seen aside from a moderate cooling of housing prices; Zillow’s estimate of my home has gone down by $50k in the last month and  several listed homes in my hood have cut their prices.  But there’s still help wanted signs everywhere.  I have been saying for 6 months that we could see a recession without ever seeing unemployment go above 5%.  Unprecedented combo of demographic and geopolitical influences.

[Voldemort86 2259]

1 hour ago, Snake Diggity said:

Unignorable signs of inflation everywhere,  but not many signs of recession that I have seen aside from a moderate cooling of housing prices; Zillow’s estimate of my home has gone down by $50k in the last month and  several listed homes in my hood have cut their prices.  But there’s still help wanted signs everywhere.  I have been saying for 6 months that we could see a recession without ever seeing unemployment go above 5%.  Unprecedented combo of demographic and geopolitical influences.

The unemployment rate is predicted to be 4 or 4.1% on the high end by the end of 2023. Possibly 2024. I could be mixing up my years.

By comparison, I remember in 2012 the unemployment rate was 7.8%. 

[Shaddie 1638]

3 hours ago, David Dennison said:

 

Naaaaah, that's too cynical.

 

No it’s not. Unfortunately. I left the company I worked at for 15 years due to record profits and lower bonuses. But hey they got listed on S&P 500. 
 

Company I went to just handed out record bonuses and 1.5% “inflation” bonus. But of course it’s not a USA based company. Go figure. 

[Azbadlands 109]

6 hours ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

I know we're a select crowd here, but is anyone personally seeing signs of recession? Are you cutting spending? Been laid off? Downsized plans? It's a serious question. I'm not really seeing anything other than the market has fallen.

Inflation? I own a home and I feel like housing costs has been the biggest issue. But gas? I drive a minimal amount. Food, etc. isn't enough to really make me change habits. I feel like I was broken by inflation by being at UT when tuition was deregulated. I went from paying about $2,500 in tuition/fees a semester to roughly $4,500 as a broke college student in a matter of four years. That followed by seeing health insurance skyrocket over the past decade makes paying $75 to fill up a tank of gas once a month instead of $40 once a month seem like nothing.

This seems like an economy where everyone says "Man, it's terrible! I mean, not for me, but for everyone else."

Went to the beach this week, and I've never seen it so packed. $100 a day golf carts everywhere. Restaurants packed.

The company I work for had a reduction in force just a week ago due to seeing signs of a downturn in the economy.  It's a fortune 500 company that processes credit card transactions for banks, basically an acquirer company that takes credit card transactions from multiple terminals, authorizes them, puts them in a file and ships them off to banks. We also have other types of payment applications that I am not involved with, but we basically do all kinds of financial type stuff involving bank cards and mobile payments.

We usually do pretty well when the economy goes down a little because people start using credit more, but this time around for some reason they are reducing force right now while the economy is just starting to show signs of a downturn..Not sure if that means it is about to get bad..

Edited July 30, 2022 by Azbadlands

[F250 28691]

I make a lot of money so I don't really feel the effects of inflation. Sucks to be poor. - Shit libs

[Hermanator 6944]

Inflation that hit this hard is from way more than 1 factor. 

It's a supply side vs demand side issue. On the supply side you have a lot of people who didn't spend their usual amount in 2020/2021 due to the pandemic shutdown and fear of getting back into the old habits too soon. So when 2022 hit all of those people were looking to spend so demand went way up. 

On supply side many industries haven't recovered to pre-pandemic levels while almost all industries have realized they can intentionally restrict supply while blaming the pandemic to artificially create supply shortage and force Inflation for their own profit. Add in stupid Putin doing stupid Russian things to take advantage of the situation and here we are. 

The level to which the fed will be able to have influence over this Inflation is dependant on how much of it is demand vs supply. Fed can exert a ton of control over demand while not much at all over supply. 

Edited July 30, 2022 by Hermanator

[Voldemort86 2259]

It’s well documented that both the car industry and gas industry have used the pandemic as an excuse to drive prices up. It’s all corporate greed playing out in front of our eyes.  I never thought we’d see 5 dollars a gallon in Texas, but it nearly happened where I live.

the supply chain issues is also a people issue in my opinion.  You can’t remove the 80 million people worldwide who died to covid without some things hitting a snag.