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Aug 2 primaries and beyond

StassneyHorn

By StassneyHorn
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Js1

Js1 85321

Posted
Posted
54 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Republicans touched the third rail.  They're finding out after fucking around.

The big takeaway -

Dobbs fired up Dems and independent casual voters.  Both groups that historically don't show up well - Dems in midterm years of a Dem president (10/14) and independent casual voters who only show up in presidential years. 

This is not going to be a great sign for the GOP's "ReD wAvE" they are banking on.  Honestly, I could see/kinda expecting:

  • Dems barely lose the House (i.e., maybe an 8-10 seat majority for the GOP, if that, which would be civil war between the nuts and McCarthy will probably be so fucked, if he wins Speaker, trying to wrangle that caucus)
  • Dems gain in Senate (keep AZ, NV, GA, NH, win WI, PA, barely lose OH, NC)

That's the today environment.  If gas prices keep falling and Biden signs the gay marriage bill and this new BBB bill, you could see his approvals rebound into the mid-40s and then all bets are off if the GOP is even favored in November anymore.  Left-leaning independents and casual Dems are dragging down his approvals because they're so-so on him, but his mid-to-upper 30s approval is not dragging down most Dems, who are polling mid-40s to low-50s in swing states. 

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Js1

Js1 85321

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1 hour ago, TheStoicPaisano said:

 

Buetler is losing but WA has jungle primaries, she's in second place to the Dem but 5k ahead of the 3rd place candidate.  The Dem has 31.8% of the vote and the GOP candidates combine for 63.5% of the vote (Dem combined vote is 34.5%).  Newhouse is barely ahead of the Dem, but 4,000 votes clear of 3rd place and the GOP combine or 75% of the vote. 

Newhouse and Herrera-Beutler are both favored to win in November.  Valdao is a toss-up district.

Cheney is toast. 

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13512

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, TheStoicPaisano said:

 

Interesting data point but I assume that most of them knew this would be their last term in the House. Unless they really had some weird believe that the average GOP voter would see the truth after the impeachment vote. Bold strategy if that was their thought.

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Js1

Js1 85321

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Posted
2 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

That is fair.

Reminder: NE-01 had a special election immediately post-Dobbs and the Dem lost 53.2-46.8 (+6.4) in an R+9 seat.  Before it really baked in. 

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Js1

Js1 85321

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Royalfan5 said:

That election will be re-run this fall too. 

That election was actually illegal, I don't know why it wasn't sued to be stopped.  It was a special election under the new lines instead of the old lines. The new lines don't technically go into effect until November 2022 elections, so it never should have happened as it did.  I believe there's some individuals in Nebraska represented by two different people currently. 

Edited by Js1
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C-Man

C-Man 27222

Posted
Posted

As far as the primary goes for Arizona governor -- is it over with a simple majority or is there a run-off between the top two candidates if one candidate doesn't get 50% of the vote? Lake is at 46.2% to Taylor Robson's 44.4% at the moment with 80% of ballots counted.

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Js1

Js1 85321

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1 minute ago, C-Man said:

As far as the primary goes for Arizona governor -- is it over with a simple majority or is there a run-off between the top two candidates if one candidate doesn't get 50% of the vote? Lake is at 46.2% to Taylor Robson's 44.4% at the moment with 80% of ballots counted.

Run-offs are usually only in southern states to disenfranchise black candidates. 

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RomaVicta

RomaVicta 29907

Posted
Posted
20 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Interesting data point but I assume that most of them knew this would be their last term in the House. Unless they really had some weird believe that the average GOP voter would see the truth after the impeachment vote. Bold strategy if that was their thought.

Or they voted their conscience.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13512

Posted
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5 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

Or they voted their conscience.

Yes. There are intelligent Gop members of congress and they can recognize what trump did. Most are not Ged-at-30+ like bobert or mtg. But they have to play the game since their party is now ruled by trump and his followers.

I would guess that the majority of the GOP in DC are just waiting for trump to die.  Whether it’s tomorrow or 2030. They will act however until that point.

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RomaVicta

RomaVicta 29907

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Yes. There are intelligent Gop members of congress and they can recognize what trump did. Most are not Ged-at-30+ like bobert or mtg. But they have to play the game since their party is now ruled by trump and his followers.

I would guess that the majority of the GOP in DC are just waiting for trump to die.  Whether it’s tomorrow or 2030. They will act however until that point.

I don't mean to suggest that voting one's conscience is common in Congress. These people spit their party's bit when it came to violent insurrection that saw a criminal mob take over the Capitol of the US. I'd be surprised if any of them calculated that their vote would be popular in their party or back home.

I think your description of playing the game is accurate 99% of the time.

On the Dem side, I'm still outraged at how few stood up to vote against the Iraq invasion. I'd rather be voted out rather than walk around with knowledge that I was too tame to speak against something that would kill so many people and cost this nation so much. The Dems couldn't win the vote, but they didn't have to knuckle under in fear.

Dennis Kucinich voted his conscience and can be proud of doing so.

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Js1

Js1 85321

Posted
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39 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

Or they voted their conscience.

Meh, there are quite a few Senators in their last terms, already having announced that years ago, who are being some absolute dickwads still.  Portman, Toomey, Burr. 

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Guest

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Posted

Are all of these people crying about election fraud going to end up being the boy who cried wolf? Seems like every single race, at least one R is complaining about fraud. That includes the Republican primary for AZ gov, where Lake said there was fraud... and then she pulls ahead she says she won. Just mind-numbing silliness with it all.

This has to seriously hurt the chances of that tactic working in the future to influence voters or courts if the results are challenged, right? 

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

Posted
Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Are all of these people crying about election fraud going to end up being the boy who cried wolf? Seems like every single race, at least one R is complaining about fraud. That includes the Republican primary for AZ gov, where Lake said there was fraud... and then she pulls ahead she says she won. Just mind-numbing silliness with it all.

This has to seriously hurt the chances of that tactic working in the future to influence voters or courts if the results are challenged, right? 

The Republican ticket in Arizona is too extreme to win. They will most likely lose this year.

lake and masters are both huge creeps. Lots of ways to exploit them.

Edited by Voldemort86
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BehoId, The Underminer!

BehoId, The Underminer! 11669

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Are all of these people crying about election fraud going to end up being the boy who cried wolf? Seems like every single race, at least one R is complaining about fraud. That includes the Republican primary for AZ gov, where Lake said there was fraud... and then she pulls ahead she says she won. Just mind-numbing silliness with it all.

This has to seriously hurt the chances of that tactic working in the future to influence voters or courts if the results are challenged, right? 

the goal isn't to catch actual fraud, it's to have people believe fraud exists so they can pass lass that protect against fraud (and oops also incidentally reduce the number of voters of a particular ilk)

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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 52492

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

the goal isn't to catch actual fraud, it's to have people believe fraud exists so they can pass lass that protect against fraud (and oops also incidentally reduce the number of voters of a particular ilk)

They don’t care if people believe it. They just need to say it so they can use it as justification for the laws they want. 

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Js1

Js1 85321

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

the goal isn't to catch actual fraud, it's to have people believe fraud exists so they can pass lass that protect against fraud (and oops also incidentally reduce the number of voters of a particular ilk)

Never forget that most actual voter fraud that occurred the last 2 presidential elections were committed by Republicans voting for Trump. 

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Posted
Posted
49 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

The Republican ticket in Arizona is too extreme to win. They will most likely lose this year.

lake and masters are both huge creeps. Lots of ways to exploit them.

Famous last words...

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Js1

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4 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Famous last words...

The Speaker of the AZ House lost his bid to move to the State Senate for not helping Trump overturn the election. 

The AZ GOP has gone off the fucking deep end, worse than when Kelli Chemtrails Ward was running the freak show. 

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C-Man

C-Man 27222

Posted
Posted
49 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Arizona is a rational state tho. This isn’t Alabama or Tennessee we’re talking about.

marvel-is-it-though.gif

 

49 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

the goal isn't to catch actual fraud, it's to have people believe fraud exists so they can pass lass that protect against fraud (and oops also incidentally reduce the number of voters of a particular ilk)

Reduce the number, ahem, Dem voters and also create laws that allow them to effectively commit fraud themselves. Rules for thee but not for me!!!!!

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gmr548

gmr548 16576

Posted
Posted
Arizona is a rational state tho. This isn’t Alabama or Tennessee we’re talking about.

The state of Show Me Your Papers? Of millions moving to endless sprawl in the desert while the Colorado River runs dry?

People said the same of PA, MI, WI…

Maybe it’ll work out and the AZ GOP is signing its statewide death warrant. I hope it does. But we’ve seen this movie before.
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ChuckNorrisActionJeans

ChuckNorrisActionJeans 2669

Posted
Posted
19 hours ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

who was the poster who was trying to push the narrative that Roe being a 'loss' for people would lead to fewer of them going to the polls? wonder whose garbage wishful thinking that was

Dude FFS.... I posted an article I had read. Was not "pushing a narrative" because in fact, I'd very much like that narrative to not be true. And whether there is truth to it remains to be seen, instead of doing a victory lap from one state's ballot initiative, we all need to stay vigilant as hell.

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Pescado_Rojo

Pescado_Rojo 19416

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, gmr548 said:


The state of Show Me Your Papersemoji3481.png? Of millions moving to endless sprawl in the desert while the Colorado River runs dry?

People said the same of PA, MI, WI…

Maybe it’ll work out and the AZ GOP is signing its statewide death warrant. I hope it does. But we’ve seen this movie before.

The California exodus seems to have affected Az politics far more than Texas. Az had a smaller population, so the new residents made a larger impact. In the past 4 years, they have elected two D senators, and voted D in the presidential election, and currently have a D+1 congressional delegation. Doug Ducey seems to be the only sane Republican with any statewide appeal, and he's term limited as governor and decided not to run against Kelly for the senate seat. Maybe he thinks Sinema is an easier target in 2024, but I think rising star Ruben Gallego primaries her and probably wins. I have much more confidence in Arizona turning bright blue than I do say, Georgia...which I think stays reddish-purple for the foreseeable future. 

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RDCanecutter

RDCanecutter 26428

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Trumpkins are obsessed with everything they don't understand.

I've known these fuckers since I was a child and they were Wallace voters. Flip-floppity flexible brains able to bounce around contradictory ideas like pinballs between the bumpers. It's easy to deal with but impossible to root out. You give the more unenthusiastic and young ones a chance to move on, and the hard core you gotta block off and shun.

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6575

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Posted (edited)

Tennessee up today. Kinda bleh. Nashville got carved into 3 districts and the incumbent Dem stepped down than try and campaign. There’s a 66.7% chance Tennessee will have its first black candidate for Governor from a major party.

Shelby County DA encompassing Memphis will probably be most consequential.

https://www.localmemphis.com/amp/article/news/politics/shelby-county-da-abortion-prosecutions-sentencing-election-amy-weirich-steve-mulroy/522-2acb9a95-f4a2-485e-bd2f-c87b136af57d

Edited by StassneyHorn
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Zonahorn

Zonahorn 8079

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, Js1 said:

The Speaker of the AZ House lost his bid to move to the State Senate for not helping Trump overturn the election. 

The AZ GOP has gone off the fucking deep end, worse than when Kelli Chemtrails Ward was running the freak show. 

God help me if these freakshows win control of this state

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6575

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On 8/4/2022 at 2:57 PM, StassneyHorn said:

Tennessee up today. Kinda bleh. Nashville got carved into 3 districts and the incumbent Dem stepped down than try and campaign. There’s a 66.7% chance Tennessee will have its first black candidate for Governor from a major party.

Shelby County DA encompassing Memphis will probably be most consequential.

https://www.localmemphis.com/amp/article/news/politics/shelby-county-da-abortion-prosecutions-sentencing-election-amy-weirich-steve-mulroy/522-2acb9a95-f4a2-485e-bd2f-c87b136af57d

Just to follow up, the Dem won the County DA race and it is an 8 year term. His predecessor was a shitheel most memorable for handing out a 6 year sentence to a BLM activist for illegally registering to vote.

https://www.npr.org/2022/04/23/1094480415/illegal-voter-registration-case-dropped
 

Tomorrow is Minnesota, Wisconsin, Connecticut and Vermont.

Special election in MN-01. Was a R+15 seat under previous map. The winner of the Republican nomination might win that night, but find out later he loses the primary for November’s race. Fun chance for an oddity.

Wisconsin Republican primary for Gov has a Trump endorsed, spend a shit ton of own money candidate vs Scott Walker’s preferred candidate and ex Lt Governor. (Mike Pence and Ted Cruz also endorsed)

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gmr548

gmr548 16576

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Posted
Trumped endorsed WI GOV candidate beats Cruz and Pence backed candidate and Walker‘s former LG

Not seeing it called?

Hopefully some moderates get turned off if the Trumper wins, I guess. I don’t like them advancing period, but the Wisconsin governorship is one of the most crucial individual races on the board.
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Js1

Js1 85321

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Posted
Just now, gmr548 said:


Not seeing it called?

Hopefully some moderates get turned off. Wisconsin governorship is one of the most crucial individual races on the board.

Wasserman already called it 

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GopherRock

GopherRock 1765

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Posted

Ilhan Omar's problem was that she didn't get her core areas of support out. Major miscalculation.

And she wasn't the only incumbent to sweat out a photo finish last night. Robin Vos, speaker of the Wisconsin Assembly and brainchild of the last 12 years of Republican rule in Wisconsin, nearly lost to a challenger who charged him with not being sufficiently anti-democratic.

 

 

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