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Aug 2 primaries and beyond

StassneyHorn

By StassneyHorn
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TheStoicPaisano

TheStoicPaisano 9904

Posted
Posted

Gabbard’s idiotic ladder-climbing begat Kahele, who voted the right way but gave Carpetbagger Roy fodder by keeping his HAL pilot dayjob and voting proxy. He too seems to be throwing his political career away by going for the GOV spot.

I don’t know much about his potential replacement but Branco seems a lot more progressive than Tokuda. Either way, trending away from Tulsi.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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1 hour ago, StassneyHorn said:

Nothing at all. But there is the ability for “wolves hiding with the sheep.”
 

Tulsi Gabbard as an example. Say you’re a Dem, run as a Dem, vote some of the issues, but have no dedication to the cause. Not a true believer.

The only interesting thing about Hawaii politics is who their new governor will be. I’m hoping it’s Green because he supports marijuana reform. Ige sucks balls for single handedly preventing the bluest or 2nd bluest state in the country from legalizing pot. Can’t wait until he’s gone.

I want as many states and countries as possible to legalize weed and reap the benefits just to make the idiots who run Texas look bad.

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berlinerbaer

berlinerbaer 670

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On 8/10/2022 at 8:19 AM, GopherRock said:

Ilhan Omar's problem was that she didn't get her core areas of support out. Major miscalculation.

And she wasn't the only incumbent to sweat out a photo finish last night. Robin Vos, speaker of the Wisconsin Assembly and brainchild of the last 12 years of Republican rule in Wisconsin, nearly lost to a challenger who charged him with not being sufficiently anti-democratic.

 

 

NSIAP, he just ended that state's investigation into the 2020 elections, hopefully crushing to the morale of the most MAGA Wisconsin voters.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/12/wisconsin-assembly-leader-axes-2020-election-investigation-00051512

Quote

Wisconsin Assembly Speaker Robin Vos has ended a controversial partisan review of the 2020 election, which he and GOP legislators had funded for the past year, days after Vos defeated a primary challenger.

 

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45477

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1 hour ago, berlinerbaer said:

Wisconsin Assembly Speaker Robin Vos has ended a controversial partisan review of the 2020 election, which he and GOP legislators had funded for the past year with taxpayer dollars, days after Vos defeated a primary challenger.

they forgot that little tidbit

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6534

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Tomorrow

Wyoming- Liz Cheney reckoning. Secretary of State race between two election deniers and one person living in reality.

Alaska- will Palin thread the needle or will ranked choice voting possibly put in a Democrat? If Begich finishes third good chance that gives the Dem Peltola the victory. How far away will the Trump challenger to Murkowski end up? Murkowski has voted with Biden 69% of time.

 

 

 

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Js1

Js1 85056

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Posted
11 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

Alaska- will Palin thread the needle or will ranked choice voting possibly put in a Democrat? If Begich finishes third good chance that gives the Dem Peltola the victory. How far away will the Trump challenger to Murkowski end up? Murkowski has voted with Biden 69% of time.

 

 

 

This is by far the most interesting part of the night.  Begich finishing third gives the Dems a chance to eek out a victory over Palin.  The conventional wisdom on Senate is Tshibaka may lead by the end of the night, but Murkowski will win the general election.  All Dems will (or should) mark Murkowski as their second choice in November.  

Alaska polls close at 11pm CT.  Yawn, no thanks. 

 

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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1 hour ago, Js1 said:

This is by far the most interesting part of the night.  Begich finishing third gives the Dems a chance to eek out a victory over Palin.  The conventional wisdom on Senate is Tshibaka may lead by the end of the night, but Murkowski will win the general election.  All Dems will (or should) mark Murkowski as their second choice in November.  

Alaska polls close at 11pm CT.  Yawn, no thanks. 

 

Alaska is weird tho. Will probably take them several weeks to count everything.

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The Dog

The Dog 43771

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Cross posting from the abortion thread (originally posted by HenryJames).

These stories will keep coming and the GOP will either have to dig in to an unpopular stance or try to weasel their way out of it and risk alienating the very voters they need to win. 

Dobbs isn't going away and is going to be an issue well through the November elections.

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Js1

Js1 85056

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1 hour ago, Voldemort86 said:

Alaska is weird tho. Will probably take them several weeks to count everything.

We will have NY-19 results next week, before we get all of the AK-AL results.  Then they have to run RCV if no one gets 50% initially, which is what is expected.  So maybe 3-4 weeks? 

Whoever is elected will serve all of like, 5-6 weeks, before the 2022 General Election.  

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Js1

Js1 85056

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Murkowski leads the AK tundra primary, which is before the more left leaning mail ballots are all counted that should boost her totals up towards 50%. She looks pretty safe going into the GE - Dems consolidated around her to keep her alive and will either vote for her and rank her 2nd in November 

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Balcones

Balcones 430

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It was hard to see where Liz Cheney was going in her concession speech. Gold star father quotes, Big Lie references, troops shedding blood for a purpose, etc….  Dick Cheney must have been on edge before she mentioned January 6th instead of Sadam’s WMD. 

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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 52322

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So the morons in WY, some my former neighbors, just voted out the most conservative member of congress by voting record (or close to it) because she wouldn’t go along with the trump circus of bullshit to keep power.  
 

and they lose any committee power or whatever else one earns from years in congress, and put their one congressional vote at the kiddie table. 

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Js1

Js1 85056

Posted
Posted

Updated Alaska numbers:

Peltola (D) 38.38%
Palin (R) 32.59%
Begich III (R) 29.03%

A LOT of outstanding mail-in ballots from the bluer parts of Alaska, so Peltola's numbers should rise.  Probably not enough outstanding for Begich to cut into Palin's numbers. 

The conventional wisdom is that if Peltola gets around 41% in the initial vote and Palin keeps her second place, if ~1/3rd of Begich's voters choose Peltola in the 2nd round or spoil their ballots (no second choice), the Dem eeks out a win.  IN ALASKA. 

Regardless, any Peltola showing higher than 42.77% is an improvement on Biden's 2020 numbers and spells good new for November.  Anything higher than 45.31% is an improvement on the "Dem" number in 2020, as Galvin ran as an independent, and even better news for November. 

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chainsaw

chainsaw 9831

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1 hour ago, Celery Man said:

So with Cheney dead, is it still fair to state that the GOP is entirely divorced from reality and anyone who supports a member of the party is complicit as it achieves its purpose of ending American democracy?

It's fair.

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Balcones

Balcones 430

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Posted
7 hours ago, Celery Man said:

So with Cheney dead, is it still fair to state that the GOP is entirely divorced from reality and anyone who supports a member of the party is complicit as it achieves its purpose of ending American democracy?

This board has come a long way regarding its opinions of the Cheney’s. 

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Bama Chick

Bama Chick 28596

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Not me.

Fuck her and her dad.

Just because she’s against treason and insurrection doesn’t make her palatable much less a hero.

Being pro-democracy and anti-fascism shouldn’t be rare.

Her crazy ass replacement will vote the exact same way as Cheney did. All this election did was cause Wyoming to lose any seniority and influence within The House.

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Balcones

Balcones 430

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Cheney talked about how principled she is and would have won the race with 70% of vote if she supported Trump, but she was above that. Sadly she had no problem dumping on her sister and family opposing gay marriage in order to get elected in the first place.  

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WhatTheBuck

WhatTheBuck 28700

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11 hours ago, Balcones said:

It was hard to see where Liz Cheney was going in her concession speech. Gold star father quotes, Big Lie references, troops shedding blood for a purpose, etc….  Dick Cheney must have been on edge before she mentioned January 6th instead of Sadam’s WMD. 

She’s got a lot of damn gall comparing herself to Abraham Lincoln. The GOP hasn’t been the party of Lincoln in a long, long time. Lincoln was a progressive and an intellectual. He wouldn’t have anything to do with the modern Republican Party and vice versa. 

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Js1

Js1 85056

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3 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

Will be an update to Alaska’s first choice numbers today, as well as all the New York infighting and special election, plus Florida man.

Ulster County is 1/4 of NY-19 and where Pat Ryan (Dem candidate) is the County Exec

EV went 5200 D - 900 R - 1000 other
Election Day so far has gone 6700 D - 4000 R - 3200 other

Biden won it 60-39
Dems currently leading the vote 56-24 with 20% "other" (lot of third parties in NY, like Working Families and Conservative) 

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6534

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How many times are the de la Fuente father/son combo going to run in primaries as spoilers? They do this in TX, FL and CA. The dad was in the primary ballot in 8 states in 2018 during the primary.

Hell Ricky actually won the Dem primary in Michael Clouds district in 2020 and I’m guessing he did zero travel and campaigning.

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Js1

Js1 85056

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Posted
1 minute ago, StassneyHorn said:

How many times are the de la Fuente father/son combo going to run in primaries as spoilers? They do this in TX and FL

Well they picked 2 of the dumbest states so….

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