Aug 2 primaries and beyond

[Voldemort86 2,259]

48 minutes ago, Js1 said:

She’s trailing again and looks unlikely to win

 

Dems weren’t winning these seats even if Trumps crazies won the primaries. They are way too rigged.

[Js1 85,056]

1 minute ago, Voldemort86 said:

Dems weren’t winning these seats even if Trumps crazies won the primaries. They are way too rigged.

Never said they had a chance. Or even thought it. Loomer losing is good for America

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,356]

 

[Voldemort86 2,259]

If the New York gerrymander went thru, I wouldn’t be upset about floridas, but it seems like judges were eager to strike down Democrat gerrymanders and afraid to strike down repub gerrymanders so the overall house map is still pretty fucked up.

[Js1 85,056]

HD 31-35 are not as blue as the rest of the outstanding vote, so it looks good for Peltola to hit that magic 41% she “needs” if she is it overtake Palin in RCV. 

Next update is the 26th or 28th i think? Then RCV gets run on the 31st

[Js1 85,056]

32 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

 

 

[Gengs1 2,583]

The Dems should be really driving a wedge against the Regular Rs and the trump Rs (yea I know they are almost the same) to make them stay home in November 

[Voldemort86 2,259]

36 minutes ago, Js1 said:

 

Good god she sounds just like Trump.

[atomheartbevo 89,362]

50 minutes ago, Js1 said:

 

46 minutes ago, Gengs1 said:

The Dems should be really driving a wedge against the Regular Rs and the trump Rs (yea I know they are almost the same) to make them stay home in November 

We just need the Laura Loomers and goblins Don Huffines to run third party.

[Gengs1 2,583]

Just now, atomheartbevo said:

 

We just need the Laura Loomers and goblins Don Huffines to run third party.

Yup encourage them to form trump party 

[Bullneck 18,976]

4 minutes ago, Gengs1 said:

Yup encourage them to form trump party 

Truth Party

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,356]

Daniel Sachs Goldman

Still can’t believe that’s his real name.  

[Js1 85,056]

GOP sweats out an R+11 seat in NY-23 (final margin might be single digits) and NY-19 is not looking like a wave, whoever wins will be by decimal points and was expected to be an R+3 or better win. 

SCOTUS did no favor for the GOP. 

[Voldemort86 2,259]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

GOP sweats out an R+11 seat in NY-23 (final margin might be single digits) and NY-19 is not looking like a wave, whoever wins will be by decimal points and was expected to be an R+3 or better win. 

SCOTUS did no favor for the GOP. 

When Sean trende is saying something positive about the dems, you know it’s true. The guy seems to have a big Republican bias. Good good news for dems.

Edited August 24, 2022 by Voldemort86

[Js1 85,056]

Barring something wonky, I think Pat Ryan won. Last full county dropped and he got 48%, 2 points better than Biden. Handful of precincts and absentees left, which never favor the GOP, and Ryan up 2.6%. Currently overperforming JB by 1.1%

This is massive - an unexpected special election hold in a tossup district that was R leaning pre-Dobbs and they expected to win 

 

[Js1 85,056]

NY-23 is only R+5.5 with 40 precincts left. Not gonna hit R+11 from 2020

[Voldemort86 2,259]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Barring something wonky, I think Pat Ryan won. Last full county dropped and he got 48%, 2 points better than Biden. Handful of precincts and absentees left, which never favor the GOP, and Ryan up 2.6%. Currently overperforming JB by 1.1%

This is massive - an unexpected special election hold in a tossup district that was R leaning pre-Dobbs and they expected to win 

 

[The Dog 43,771]

officially official

 

 

[Voldemort86 2,259]

1 minute ago, The Dog said:

officially official

 

 

Spike the damn football. LETS GO.

[Js1 85,056]

Just now, Voldemort86 said:

Spike the damn football. LETS GO.

About a week to see if Dems pull off another in Alaska. Assuming it’s Palin #2.

Not just no red wave, but candidate quality matters too. 

Pat Ryan ran on abortion rights. Pat Ryan won. 

[StassneyHorn 6,534]

 

[The Dog 43,771]

 

[Voldemort86 2,259]

 

[chainsaw 9,831]

11 hours ago, Js1 said:

 

This morning's headline in Miami should be "IT'S NOT A LOOMER"

[Pancho 44,358]

 

[Neonmoon 38,127]

Please please please let the Ds keep the house. 

[chainsaw 9,831]

3 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Please please please let the Ds keep the house. 

It will be hard with so much gerrymandering but I think Nate Silver had it around 22% chance

[Snake Diggity 4,614]

There is almost no chance of the Dems keeping the house.  Temper expectations.  52 Dem senators and 210 Dem reps would be a phenomenal outcome considering how things looked 100 days ago.

[Js1 85,056]

8 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

There is almost no chance of the Dems keeping the house.  Temper expectations.  52 Dem senators and 210 Dem reps would be a phenomenal outcome considering how things looked 100 days ago.

Truth. Very unlikely to win the House but  keeping the GOP at 220-225 means it’s entirely winnable in 2024 and will be a nearly ungovernable majority 

[chainsaw 9,831]

3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Truth. Very unlikely to win the House but  keeping the GOP at 220-225 means it’s entirely winnable in 2024 and will be a nearly ungovernable majority 

They will try to impeach anyone they hate, and also steer the J6 committee away from the truth. Personally I think if they do it, it will backfire spectacularly for 2024.

[A-Tex Devil 2,444]

6 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

They will try to impeach anyone they hate, and also steer the J6 committee away from the truth. Personally I think if they do it, it will backfire spectacularly for 2024.

That’s the thing.  We will be dealing with 2 years of revenge politics on J6, Fauci, Garland etc.  A bunch of show trials, likely a special committee the Dems are locked out of.  The crazies will run those, of course.  It ought to make them look horrible.  Ought to.   

[chainsaw 9,831]

6 minutes ago, A-Tex Devil said:

That’s the thing.  We will be dealing with 2 years of revenge politics on J6, Fauci, Garland etc.  A bunch of show trials, likely a special committee the Dems are locked out of.  The crazies will run those, of course.  It ought to make them look horrible.  Ought to.   

The main problem with gerrymandering is there's no accountability for the crazies.

[Queen Bitch 1,692]

 

[GopherRock 1,765]

IIRC the chances of Dems keeping the House was about the same as Donald Trump getting elected President in 2016.

For pure sporting purposes, contracts for D House and D House and Senate can be had for 24 to 26 cents. If my math is correct, and subtracting the vig, that translates to roughly a +255 moneyline. Unlikely, but longer shots have come in. Also, the optimistic side of me thinks that the effect of Dobbs have yet to fully manifest itself. Recall the wipeout in Kansas was completely unexpected.

[The Dog 43,771]

[MC Fresh Breath 4,074]

Good for him.  

Quote

 

Meet Maxwell Alejandro Frost, the 25-year-old gun violence prevention advocate backed by Bernie Sanders who's set to become the first Gen Z member of Congress

Maxwell Alejandro Frost, a 25-year-old first-time candidate backed by progressives including Sen. Bernie Sanders, won the Democratic nomination in Florida's 10th congressional district on Tuesday night.

Given the Orlando-area district's solid Democratic lean, he is almost certain to win the November general election and become the first member of Congress from Generation Z come January 2023. He is also likely to be Congress's only Afro-Cuban member.

Frost, a gun violence prevention advocate who previously served as the National Organizing Director for March for Our Lives, outcompeted a large field of candidates for a House seat left open by incumbent Democratic Rep. Val Demings, who won the Democratic nomination for US Senate on Tuesday. His opponents included Orlando-area state Sen. Randolph Bracy and two former members of Congress from the Sunshine State: Alan Grayson and Corinne Brown.

At 25, Frost will likely be the youngest member of Congress, just barely qualifying for the age requirement to serve in the House of Representatives.

In June, Frost and other young activists disrupted a live event featuring Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida in order to demand action on gun violence in the wake of mass shootings in Uvalde, Texas and Buffalo, New York.

Frost ran on a progressive platform that also included Medicare for All, tackling the climate crisis with a Green New Deal, reforming the criminal justice system, and preventing future pandemics.

"Oh, one hundred percent," he told Insider in May when asked whether he supports expanding the size of the Supreme Court.

He also earned the backing of Sanders in the week before the election, though he had long assembled a coalition of progressive groups that helped power him to victory.

"He really is an intersectional candidate," Rep. Pramila Jayapal of Washington, the chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, told Insider at the Capitol in May. "I don't know what I was doing at 25, but I definitely was not thinking about running for office."

Frost, who placed an unusually strong emphasis on pandemic prevention, also benefitted from from significant outside spending from Protect Our Future — the pandemic prevention-focused super PAC backed by crypto billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried — which called Frost a "champion for pandemic prevention in Congress" in a May 16 press release.

A member of the 'mass shooting generation'
Frost first became involved in politics after the Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting in 2012, which he described as his "call to action."

At a May fundraiser with progressives in Washington, DC, he recounted how he learned of the mass shooting while a student at a performing arts school in Orlando. At the time, he was "loading up on junk food" at a TGI Fridays shortly before he and his friends were set to perform at a concert.

"There was just kind of a silence that fell across the entire restaurant," he said. "We all simultaneously looked up at the television screens and saw that somebody walked into an elementary school in Newtown, Connecticut, and murdered a bunch of students and their teachers."

Frost, who often describes himself as a member of the "mass shooting generation," later became a volunteer lobbyist with the Newtown Action Alliance, jump-starting what has now amounted to a full decade of heavy involvement in political campaigns and causes.

And he told Insider that in 2016, he survived his own close brush with gun violence at a Halloween event in downtown Orlando, when two men nearby got into a shooting match with one another.

"We all started running," he told Insider in May. "I remember I had to pick up my friend who froze on the ground."

Frost has worked on three presidential campaigns and several state-level Florida campaigns, including the 2018 "Amendment Four" campaign that restored felons' right to vote in the state. He's also been an organizer with the American Civil Liberties Union and March for Our Lives, the gun violence prevention group created in the wake of the 2018 school shooting in Parkland, Florida.

While working for the ACLU in 2019, Frost played a part helping to pressure then-presidential candidate Joe Biden to reverse his support for the Hyde Amendment — which bars federal funding of abortion services through Medicaid — by filming the encounter as another activist pressed him on the issue.

"You get in for one reason, and then you find out there's a lot of things that are messed up," he told Insider in May.

Now, Frost stands a very good chance of becoming Congress's newest, most prominent gun violence prevention advocate.

But he conspicuous avoids aligning himself with any particular faction of the Democratic Party.

"I wouldn't necessarily put myself in a specific box," he told Insider in May, pointing to his work on coalition-building at both March for Our Lives and the ACLU. "We'll sometimes have different allies in different work."

And while he embraces the Gen Z label, Frost also rejects the idea that the problems his generation faces are dissimilar from those faced by other generations.

"The way we describe the issues might be in a different light because of the experiences that we've had," said Frost, insisting that "there's a connection between our generations, and our shared humanity and struggle, throughout the systems that our country has in place." 

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/25-year-old-endorsed-bernie-sanders-won-primary-in-florida-2022-8

[Voldemort86 2,259]

17 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

I’m starting to think the house odds should be closer to 60 / 40 GOP with the possibility of getting to 50/50 or better by Election Day. Biden’s approval is improving and the presidents approval rating is usually tied to house seats, but that correlation doesn’t seem to be very accurate in this election cycle. It can’t hurt tho.

there are at least 220 districts further to the left then the district the democrats just won yesterday. Just win those districts and we’re good right? It seems like killing roe v wade has made lots of new people register to vote, and has made lots of democrats eager to vote who would’ve otherwise sat this year out. We don’t know yet how many those people are. We are also seeing independents be much more receptive to voting democrat this cycle than just a few months ago.

I think the senate is looking more and more like a dem hold everyday and the house is slowly trending to the left as well. If Biden can sustain the momentum and the dems sell their successes to the public, I wouldn’t rule it out.  The only thing that upsets me is gerrymandering. Big losses in Ohio, New York, Florida, Louisiana, and Alabama could limit our ceiling. Dems need to abolish all the bipartisan redistricting committees that only seem to exist in blue states and be out for blood next redistricting cycle. The GOP isn’t going to give us anything, so we need to give them nothing in return.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,667]

I think the stock market will dictate it.  If everything can go up by a few percent by November, the burbs will be able to vote their conscience a little more.  If we stay level from here through election, the $ contrast between trump days and biden days will be too great.

[Voldemort86 2,259]

To add to my prior post, it seems like republicans have a lot of low information, low propensity voters now. Watch videos from Trump rallies and most republicans are full blown trumpers now. Most of them are ignorant of the issues, they don’t understand policy, they just love their orange god and want to help him win. When he’s not on the ballot, these folks don’t show up. We’ve seen it in special elections and in 2018.

also we have seemingly a constant slow drip of these types of stories coming out. This stuff makes me sick, but politically it serves a purpose and I hope more of these stories come out at least until the votes are counted.

At the very least this is not a normal midterm and that’s good for the dems.

[The Dog 43,771]

 

[chainsaw 9,831]

1 hour ago, Voldemort86 said:

To add to my prior post, it seems like republicans have a lot of low information, low propensity voters now. Watch videos from Trump rallies and most republicans are full blown trumpers now. Most of them are ignorant of the issues, they don’t understand policy, they just love their orange god and want to help him win. When he’s not on the ballot, these folks don’t show up. We’ve seen it in special elections and in 2018.

also we have seemingly a constant slow drip of these types of stories coming out. This stuff makes me sick, but politically it serves a purpose and I hope more of these stories come out at least until the votes are counted.

At the very least this is not a normal midterm and that’s good for the dems.

It would be a shame if the FBI "found" some top secret documents at this Lubbock judge's house.  a real shame.

[Js1 85,056]

Alaska update (2 drops yesterday):

Peltola (D) 38.9%
Palin (R) 31.4%
Begich (R) 28.2%

Another update on Friday, then a final update on August 31, then RCV will be run. 

Peltola increased her lead on Palin from 6 points to 7.5 points.  She's still on pace to hit that 40-42% needed to have a shot against Palin, unless Begich overtakes her.  That margin narrowed. 

[Js1 85,056]

 

[Js1 85,056]

 

[Js1 85,056]

Allegedly R and Ds in the state think Peltola gets over 30% of Begich ballots. Which just may be enough 

[Pato del Muerto 52,322]

Well 30% on the nose of 50k is 15k which would mean a margin of 20k (50-15, 35-15).  36% is 18k which would mean a margin of 14k. 

[Voldemort86 2,259]

The Alaska race only matters for momentum purposes. If the GOP wins, no big deal. It’s Alaska. If the dems win, it will shock people and more momentum for the dems.  Dems are playing with house money in this race.

[Js1 85,056]

On 8/26/2022 at 4:42 AM, Voldemort86 said:

The Alaska race only matters for momentum purposes. If the GOP wins, no big deal. It’s Alaska. If the dems win, it will shock people and more momentum for the dems.  Dems are playing with house money in this race.

With Charlie Crist resigning as of today, Peltola would be a nice replacement Dem if there's any key legislation to pass before midterms and in the lame-duck session.  This is not unusual, I believe DeSantis also resigned from his House seat in 2018 after being named the nominee. 

House is now 219 D -211 R with 5 vacancies (AK-AL, NY-19, NY-23 will be filled with winners of the specials, IN-02 and FL-13 will remain empty until January).  It will be 220-212 after the NY-19 and NY-23 winners are seated.  Hopefully 221 after the AK-AL winner is named tonight. 

RCV will be livestreamed starting at 4pm Alaska time, so 7pm our time. 

[Voldemort86 2,259]

7 minutes ago, Js1 said:

With Charlie Crist resigning as of today, Peltola would be a nice replacement Dem if there's any key legislation to pass before midterms and in the lame-duck session.  This is not unusual, I believe DeSantis also resigned from his House seat in 2018 after being named the nominee. 

House is now 219 D -211 R with 5 vacancies (AK-AL, NY-19, NY-23 will be filled with winners of the specials, IN-02 and FL-13 will remain empty until January).  It will be 220-212 after the NY-19 and NY-23 winners are seated.  Hopefully 221 after the AK-AL winner is named tonight. 

RCV will be livestreamed starting at 4pm Alaska time, so 7pm our time. 

Do you really think the seat could make a difference? This isn’t like the senate where it’s 50-50 and another seat would be massive. We have the most fragile senate majority probably in history with the age of senators now a days and we’re still racking up big wins.

with the midterms being so close, I just don’t think it matters too much.

Edited August 31, 2022 by Voldemort86

[Js1 85,056]

4 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Do you really think the seat could make a difference? This isn’t like the senate where it’s 50-50 and another seat would be massive. We have the most fragile senate majority probably in history with the age of senators now a days and we’re still racking up big wins.

with the midterms being so close, I just don’t think it matters too much.

Of course not, but it's a) momentum and headlines, b) giving Peltola some incumbency time and c) 221 > 220 depending on what legislation might come up between September and January.