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Posted
  On 8/21/2022 at 10:13 PM, Hookem2147 said:

Our QB has never attempted a pass, our top 2 TE’s have never caught a pass, 3/5ths of our OL have less than 120 career snaps and 3/5ths of our starting secondary is in their first year starting.

Ranking any of those units right now is pointless.

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Show me a loss!

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Posted
  On 8/21/2022 at 9:53 PM, Wulaw Horn said:

Upside for every room:

QB- top 10

RB- 1

WR- top 10 (was top 5 with Neyor healthy as an upside)  

TE- top 10

OL- top 50 week 1, Top 20 by week 12

DT- top 20

LB- Top 30

Secondary- top 25. 
 

I can’t see, even if the season goes really well- our edge/OLB being a top 50 group- they are bereft of talent and experience. Missing on Mathis sucked. 

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Dam.  

Preseason high. 

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Posted
  On 8/21/2022 at 10:13 PM, Hookem2147 said:
Our QB has never attempted a pass, our top 2 TE’s have never caught a pass, 3/5ths of our OL have less than 120 career snaps and 3/5ths of our starting secondary is in their first year starting.
Ranking any of those units right now is pointless.

He was projecting a best case scenario (aka upside). It wasnt a prediction of the most likely scenario.
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Posted
  On 8/21/2022 at 9:37 PM, lazygringo said:

According to Hudson Standish, sources are worried that EDGE is our biggest weak spot:

I hadn't realized how unproven/young we are there. We got:

Ovie Oghoufo

Prince Dorbah

D.J. Harris Jr.

Barryn Sorrell

J'Mond Tapp

Justice Finkley

Ethan Burke

A lot of people were high on Finkley but I haven't heard much about him lately. More-so Burke.

People seem to think it's largely Ovie's job to lose, but aren't exactly raving about him. I suspect we'll see mostly Ovie, Sorrell, and Dorbah w/ a little Finley and Burke thrown in until someone lays claim to the spot. But yeah it feels like a pretty big unknown.

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Fink is big on social media, and chasing the lady longhorns...lol

Posted
  On 8/21/2022 at 10:13 PM, Hookem2147 said:

Our QB has never attempted a pass, our top 2 TE’s have never caught a pass, 3/5ths of our OL have less than 120 career snaps and 3/5ths of our starting secondary is in their first year starting.

Ranking any of those units right now is pointless.

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He clearly said UPSIDE, it is a ranking on their potential.

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Posted
  On 8/21/2022 at 9:53 PM, Wulaw Horn said:

Upside for every room:

  • QB- top 10
  • RB- 1
  • WR- top 10 (was top 5 with Neyor healthy as an upside)  
  • TE- top 10
  • OL- top 50 week 1, Top 20 by week 12
  • DT- top 20
  • LB- Top 30
  • Secondary- top 25. 

I can’t see, even if the season goes really well- our edge/OLB being a top 50 group- they are bereft of talent and experience. Missing on Mathis sucked. 

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6qoq0b.gif

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Posted
  On 8/21/2022 at 9:53 PM, Wulaw Horn said:

Upside for every room:

QB- top 10

RB- 1

WR- top 10 (was top 5 with Neyor healthy as an upside)  

TE- top 10

OL- top 50 week 1, Top 20 by week 12

DT- top 20

LB- Top 30

Secondary- top 25. 
 

I can’t see, even if the season goes really well- our edge/OLB being a top 50 group- they are bereft of talent and experience. Missing on Mathis sucked. 

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LB at top 30 is biggest stretch to me.  PFF player grade ranks (Big 12 and National):

Overshown:  29/31, 384/422

Brock:  31/31, 421/422 (!)

Ford: 17/31, 256/422

I’ve seen ppl shit all over PFF player grades but this doesn’t feel that off from the eyeball test.

Can’t imagine an off-season plus a 5’9 FCS transfer is going to elevate performance to top 30 level.  Maybe top 50 if things go really well?  

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Posted
  On 8/21/2022 at 10:03 PM, closetojumping said:

Hahahahahahhaha on those defensive rankings. Put the hard stuff away, sir. 

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I hope you saw the word upside in there…

are you truly telling me no world exists where we can find 5 guys to play a competent top 25 secondary?  Or where the lights can’t turn on for Sweat or Coburn along with good play from the sophomore kid who everyone likes at DT to get

to league average at DT. I’m talking wildly optimistic everything works out right you could at least squint and see it happen type season. Whereas edge man, I can be wildly optimistic and imagine a scenario where good things happen elsewhere and all I come back to is blindfold and cigarette time there. Also feel that was about the kicking game too btw. I fear it’s going to be putrid with an upside of merely bad. 

Posted
  On 8/21/2022 at 9:53 PM, Wulaw Horn said:
Upside for every room:
QB- top 10
RB- 1
WR- top 10 (was top 5 with Neyor healthy as an upside)  
TE- top 10
OL- top 50 week 1, Top 20 by week 12
DT- top 20
LB- Top 30
Secondary- top 25. 
 
I can’t see, even if the season goes really well- our edge/OLB being a top 50 group- they are bereft of talent and experience. Missing on Mathis sucked. 

Did you bring enough drugs to share with the class?
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Posted (edited)
  On 8/21/2022 at 10:17 PM, Eskimohorn said:


He was projecting a best case scenario (aka upside). It wasnt a prediction of the most likely scenario.

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Reading is fundamental- Thank you! 
It’s an exercise I like to run with everything I do in life. Ok, let’s sit here and dream about the best that can happen and what that would look like. Then I sit down and think- what’s the worst that can happen and stress about that. Then I figure it’s by far most likely to be in the middle and figure out if it’s more plausible to be closer to the high side or the low side. 

If you told me you were from the future and Ewers went 240/360 3500 yards, 30 TDs/10 picks I’d shrug and say- I could see that- sounds really good and like he’s hitting at the high end of his bell curve.  

if you told me we were able to properly set the edge against the run and threw in 18 sacks in the year out of that group I would flat out refuse to believe you. 

Edited by Wulaw Horn
Posted
  On 8/21/2022 at 10:20 PM, longhornmatt said:

These are all too optimistic except for RB and (weirdly considering how trash this position has been for 15 years) TE.

And, yes, I understand we mean upside.  Ewers could easily have top 10 upside long term, but it’s exceedingly unlikely that is top 10 this year.   

Someone is going to have to explain LB and DB to me.  I can’t get anywhere near those projections unless we time travel back to 2018 and base it purely off of recruiting rankings.

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You are selling Ewers short man. He doesn’t have top 10 longterm upside he clearly has top 1 long term upside. His recruiting comps are Trever Lawrence and Andrew Luck- who both went 1/1 in the NFL draft. Calling him top 10 longterm upside is way too pessimistic. That’s probably a 60th percentile outcome for his UT career. 60th percentile outcomes are fine!  If he’s a top 10 QB in 2023 and moves on in the NFL as a 2nd round draft pick while Arch takes over for him that’s fine and dandy for us!  When I’m talking about upside I mean 90th percentile type outcomes. For a guy as talented and highly thought of as him 90th percentile out one means sitting on the stage in NY for the Heisman before going top 5 in the draft. 
 

 

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Posted
  On 8/20/2022 at 7:23 PM, Huckleberry said:

I don't think there's any way he's a superstar on his own but having a connection with your QB can elevate guys' production on the field. I know he was a much higher rated recruit, but Billy Pittman was a star while running a 4.9 his whole career because VY trusted him and had a connection with him (meaning he knew Pittman's speed downfield and in and out of breaks perfectly so always put the ball where Pittman needed it). If Ewers has that with Cain then he can be productive while never getting a sniff from an NFL scout.

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Catching up on the thread—Were you being hyperbolic here? With all due respect, if you think Billy Pittman ran a 4.9 his entire career, you are out of your fucking mind. His speed was extremely affected after his knee got fucked up in the national championship. He never regained the explosiveness, but 4.9 his whole career is preposterous. I believe he ran in the high 4.5s after that injury and was signed as a udfa with the chargers. He wasn’t the fastest guy, and they did have good chemistry, but you do not finish second in the fucking nation in ypc if you can’t outrun somebody at some point. Between the injury in the rose bowl and the fumble going into the end zone vs tosu, the trajectory of his career diverged and he never was the same after.

Nate Jones with Colt? Yeah, I could see that comp. Hell, John Harris somehow had a stellar senior season catching passes from Swoopes.

Posted
  On 8/21/2022 at 5:42 PM, Hermanator said:

Yeah because people who are among the "best in their industry" usually forgo the high paying gigs to roam the streets cavorting with conmen. 

Some dumb mother fuckers around here. 

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What a putz 

Posted
  On 8/21/2022 at 10:47 PM, 40acredropout said:

LB at top 30 is biggest stretch to me.  PFF player grade ranks (Big 12 and National):

Overshown:  29/31, 384/422

Brock:  31/31, 421/422 (!)

Ford: 17/31, 256/422

I’ve seen ppl shit all over PFF player grades but this doesn’t feel that off from the eyeball test.

Can’t imagine an off-season plus a 5’9 FCS transfer is going to elevate performance to top 30 level.  Maybe top 50 if things go really well?  

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Agent 0, Ford and the Midget, if they all stay healthy, could end up being top 30. People apparently like the midget. Overshown has some athletic ability. Ford isn’t bereft of talent. 
Remember- top 30 isn’t  some insurmountable hurdle of awesomeness. Last year Purdue and UTSA finished ranked 29 and 30 (I’m talking AP rankings her not unit rankings). Are you saying those three if things go well for them can’t be the Purdue of Linebackers?  That doesn’t seem insane to me. 

Posted

I think @Wulaw Horn's post is also getting misread because he's saying that's the max upside for each position but not all at the same time. If he's going for 90th percentile of each position then having all 8 happen would be a 1 in 100 million chance. So really what's being demonstrated more than Wulaw being high is how bad humans are at probability. 

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Posted
  On 8/21/2022 at 11:19 PM, Wulaw Horn said:

Agent 0, Ford and the Midget, if they all stay healthy, could end up being top 30. People apparently like the midget. Overshown has some athletic ability. Ford isn’t bereft of talent. 
Remember- top 30 isn’t  some insurmountable hurdle of awesomeness. Last year Purdue and UTSA finished ranked 29 and 30 (I’m talking AP rankings her not unit rankings). Are you saying those three if things go well for them can’t be the Purdue of Linebackers?  That doesn’t seem insane to me. 

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As was pointed out a little bit ago, DeMarvion Overshown was just as bad as Luke Brockermeyer last year, whom this board crucified and never wants to see again. Maybe playing more on the edge plays to Overshown’s strengths, but I would do backflips just to get average top 50-60 level linebacker play from him, Ford and DTD. That would be a significant improvement over last year.

Posted
  On 8/21/2022 at 12:29 PM, immamac said:

This makes so little sense it would fit in our now satirical Twitter timeline. Be better. 

Also Surly (collectively) has the most insider access out of all the sites, we have the most relationships directly into the program and we have the most reliable sources. Yet, we aren't in the "business" of breaking stories so we never do.  

 

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Star Trek GIF

Posted
  On 8/21/2022 at 11:20 PM, Huckleberry said:

I think @Wulaw Horn's post is also getting misread because he's saying that's the max upside for each position but not all at the same time. If he's going for 90th percentile of each position then having all 8 happen would be a 1 in 100 million chance. So really what's being demonstrated more than Wulaw being high is how bad humans are at probability. 

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So there's a 1 in 100 million chance we win the championship this year?!!!

Posted
  On 8/21/2022 at 11:20 PM, Huckleberry said:

I think @Wulaw Horn's post is also getting misread because he's saying that's the max upside for each position but not all at the same time. If he's going for 90th percentile of each position then having all 8 happen would be a 1 in 100 million chance. So really what's being demonstrated more than Wulaw being high is how bad humans are at probability. 

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Thank you sir!  You get it because you are half a computer.  Yes, those are all Independent of each other and where I view the best case scenario happening for any particular room. 

Posted
  On 8/21/2022 at 8:53 PM, Rex Kramer said:
I don’t think you’re taking too much liberty with Sanders. It wouldn’t surprise me if we see a JMike starter kit this year. 

They aren’t exactly the same player. If you’re hoping for that receiving production from Sanders, that’d be outstanding. We need Sanders to be a more willing blocker. If he’s not way more physical, there’s something wrong. I don’t think he could match JMikes quickness. If so and he wants it, looks out.
Posted (edited)
  On 8/21/2022 at 11:25 PM, Hookem2147 said:

As was pointed out a little bit ago, DeMarvion Overshown was just as bad as Luke Brockermeyer last year, whom this board crucified and never wants to see again. Maybe playing more on the edge plays to Overshown’s strengths, but I would do backflips just to get average top 50-60 level linebacker play from him, Ford and DTD. That would be a significant improvement over last year.

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Overshown can easily be top 30. He is a freak athlete at linebacker. He can make plays most LBs can not. He has atrocious eye disciple and has not shown the ability to read the triangle at this point of his career. When he sees ball and can use his athleticism, he is excellent. So I get saying he can be a top player. It will take a big step up, but it is possible. If he fulfills his potential it could be a top 30 unit. I don’t see that happening in the secondary though

Edited by Codaxx
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Posted
  On 8/21/2022 at 4:53 PM, Big Woodrows said:

SIAP - Bobby Burton on the QB decision

  Reveal hidden contents

 

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this is the best possible response.

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Posted
  On 8/21/2022 at 10:13 PM, Hookem2147 said:

Our QB has never attempted a pass, our top 2 TE’s have never caught a pass, 3/5ths of our OL have less than 120 career snaps and 3/5ths of our starting secondary is in their first year starting.

Ranking any of those units right now is pointless.

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Who do you think our top 2 TE's are?

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Posted

People might be more appreciative of LBer play if the DBs would clean up like they’re supposed to do. Or the edge, which occasionally was the DBs, consistently held containment. Or interior guys commanded double teams occasionally.

But it’d be too much to expect any realistic expectations of them. They have the hardest jobs so they need help no matter how good they are. But yeah at the same time they need to improve in each area. They won’t be the most physical group. Probably not the fastest. But those guys that can run with Deuce Vaughan, run with WRs on crossing routes, get sideline to sideline and consistently hammer an olineman are rare commodities if they exist at all. Spare me the bullshit funneling everything to the LBers. You ain’t funneling shit when you lose contain or dance around a block.

We’ll get good play out of them play this year. Part of that will be those around them doing their jobs better.

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Posted
  On 8/21/2022 at 11:17 PM, SamMan said:

Catching up on the thread—Were you being hyperbolic here? With all due respect, if you think Billy Pittman ran a 4.9 his entire career, you are out of your fucking mind. His speed was extremely affected after his knee got fucked up in the national championship. He never regained the explosiveness, but 4.9 his whole career is preposterous. I believe he ran in the high 4.5s after that injury and was signed as a udfa with the chargers. He wasn’t the fastest guy, and they did have good chemistry, but you do not finish second in the fucking nation in ypc if you can’t outrun somebody at some point. Between the injury in the rose bowl and the fumble going into the end zone vs tosu, the trajectory of his career diverged and he never was the same after.

Nate Jones with Colt? Yeah, I could see that comp. Hell, John Harris somehow had a stellar senior season catching passes from Swoopes.

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Pittman ran a 4.76 at the combine.

Posted
  On 8/21/2022 at 10:47 PM, 40acredropout said:

LB at top 30 is biggest stretch to me.  PFF player grade ranks (Big 12 and National):

Overshown:  29/31, 384/422

Brock:  31/31, 421/422 (!)

Ford: 17/31, 256/422

I’ve seen ppl shit all over PFF player grades but this doesn’t feel that off from the eyeball test.

Can’t imagine an off-season plus a 5’9 FCS transfer is going to elevate performance to top 30 level.  Maybe top 50 if things go really well?  

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I don't look at player ranks much...  I don't know what these numbers mean, but it looks like damn near last and worst and shit like that... Except for Ford... His looks like almost meatyokra or whatever...

 

Who does South Austin's mom have to bang for us to have LBs and an LB corch worth a damn? How does this keep happening?

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