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Victor Wembanyama- basketball's NEXT next unicorn?

shadow_operative

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shadow_operative

shadow_operative 15931

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people have been saying that the presumptive no.1 pick in next year's draft is 7'3", but based on this photo of him with Chet Holmgren and Zach Edey, the dude looks like he could be a legit 7'5"- with guard skills and the ability to shoot.

E9722325-A5BB-40B6-810C-8DF1402CD7E0.thumb.jpeg.ba9f794a0e35305e0693a757d4ce4523.jpeg

 

his name has been floating around for more than a year now, and unlike with Luka, pretty much everyone who seriously watches hoops has seen him play by now. i don't know if he's "the best prospect since lebron", but my word does his ceiling look high. as does his floor, frankly, especially on the defensive end where his ceiling is winning like 10 DPOY awards.

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shadow_operative

shadow_operative 15931

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8 hours ago, Braff Zacklin said:

Dude literally doesn't even have to jump to dunk. You might be right one the 7-foot-5.

The oddest thing about the highlight real, though? Play-by-play saying "shit" in reference to a blocked shot by Wembanyama.

lol yeah that caught me off guard. "and he seats his shit into the stands" or something similar. 

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Pimphand

Pimphand 5523

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I just don't see him lasting very long in the NBA.

I don't think a single player 7′ 3″ (or taller) has ever played in 900 NBA games.

I would probably put Yao Ming and Ralph Sampson as the most skilled players in that category and neither of them cracked 500 games.

When you think longevity it's a pretty short list too what Eaton, Rik Smits, Ilgauskas, and Shawn Bradley?

Something about that height basically puts an injury hex on you.

19 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

I’d love to see him on the Rockets, but their first pick luck hasn’t been great. 

Uhh well they did take Sampson & Yao so history is on their side if this kid is that talented.

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0xdeadbeef

0xdeadbeef 1614

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The kid needs to seriously bulk up before joining the Association.  At his current weight, no way he gets on the floor much. NBA players can handle a 7'5" bean pole on both ends of the court. 

If Zion could gift this kid 70 lbs, they'd both be better off. 

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shadow_operative

shadow_operative 15931

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1 hour ago, Pimphand said:

I just don't see him lasting very long in the NBA.

I don't think a single player 7′ 3″ (or taller) has ever played in 900 NBA games.

I would probably put Yao Ming and Ralph Sampson as the most skilled players in that category and neither of them cracked 500 games.

When you think longevity it's a pretty short list too what Eaton, Rik Smits, Ilgauskas, and Shawn Bradley?

Something about that height basically puts an injury hex on you.

Uhh well they did take Sampson & Yao so history is on their side if this kid is that talented.

i don't think his height has anything to do with the potential longevity of his career. it's a new day now, and kids are fucking huge. human beings, especially in first world countries, are just getting bigger and bigger. and the nba is the poster child for "things that have never been done before" now being done on a regular basis.

dirk came over and shattered what any european player had done before him, and reinvented his position; kd is a legit 7-footer yet his a perimeter player and is probably the greatest pure scorer of all time; ray allen's 269 3pm in 2006 was a record that stood for 8 years; it's been beaten 16 times since then, by guys like Duncan Robinson and Buddy Hield (twice). and that's because steph curry single handedly changed the game of basketball almost overnight by doing things that had never been done before.

there's never been another KD; never been another Greek Freak, another Jokic, another Steph, another Luka; hell, there's never been another Zion. ive been posting here for years about the unbelievably bright future of basketball, because a guy who would have been considered a "freak" 15-20 years is wouldn't be anything special in today's nba. its the league that's pushing the boundaries of what's physically posible more than any other, by a mile.

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ztejas

ztejas 42802

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1 hour ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

The kid needs to seriously bulk up before joining the Association.  At his current weight, no way he gets on the floor much. NBA players can handle a 7'5" bean pole on both ends of the court. 

If Zion could gift this kid 70 lbs, they'd both be better off. 

Have you not watched the NBA in 15 years? 

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Pimphand

Pimphand 5523

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1 hour ago, shadow_operative said:

also i gotta say that this is the first time i've ever heard someone say that highly touted nba prospect won't make it because he's too tall, lol. 

I didn't say he wasn't going to make it I said his career would be short because of it. Reading is fundamental

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shadow_operative

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kevin durant is at least 7'0" if not 7'1", he's rail thin, and he's still playing at a high level heading into his 16th season. and he, like wembanyama, is a perimeter player, unlike the overwhelming majority of 7 footers in nba history. your premise is flawed, and there's no reason to think this kid is too tall to have a long career. you're basically saying, "centers from the 80's and 90's had shorter careers, therefore modern day perimeter players who happen to tall will also have shorter careers."

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ztejas

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50 minutes ago, shadow_operative said:

kevin durant is at least 7'0" if not 7'1", he's rail thin, and he's still playing at a high level heading into his 16th season. and he, like wembanyama, is a perimeter player, unlike the overwhelming majority of 7 footers in nba history. your premise is flawed, and there's no reason to think this kid is too tall to have a long career. you're basically saying, "centers from the 80's and 90's had shorter careers, therefore modern day perimeter players who happen to tall will also have shorter careers."

KD is probably 6'11". Also using one of the inarguable 20 greatest players ever as an example is problematic. 

But... I agree with you in general that VW is poised to kill it in the "Association".

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Pimphand

Pimphand 5523

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My guess is you don't have the slightest clue on reading investment charts with resistance and support lines and understand the difference between early breakout lines vs paradigm shift breakout lines.

Until we see the paradigm shift breakout line where someone at or above that height can make the hall of fame you cannot call him the best prospect since LeBron.

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shadow_operative

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14 minutes ago, ztejas said:

KD is probably 6'11". Also using one of the inarguable 20 greatest players ever as an example is problematic. 

But... I agree with you in general that VW is poised to kill it in the "Association".

E2004498-4257-4F08-A867-2D4764777B8C.jpeg.849416bc3920e4d6cb3c1c08a8abefd5.jpeg

also there's a ton of video out there if nba players emphatically stating that KD is at least 7 feet tall if not taller.

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shadow_operative

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18 minutes ago, Pimphand said:

My guess is you don't have the slightest clue on reading investment charts with resistance and support lines and understand the difference between early breakout lines vs paradigm shift breakout lines.

Until we see the paradigm shift breakout line where someone at or above that height can make the hall of fame you cannot call him the best prospect since LeBron.

you've gone from "he won't have a long career because he's tall" to "there's nobody in the HoF above 7'3", FIGHT ME." so what are we even talking about here?

also, i didn't say he was the best prospect since lebron, in fact i explicitly casted doubt on that claim and merely said the has both a high floor and a high ceiling.

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ztejas

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8 minutes ago, shadow_operative said:

E2004498-4257-4F08-A867-2D4764777B8C.jpeg.849416bc3920e4d6cb3c1c08a8abefd5.jpeg

also there's a ton of video out there if nba players emphatically stating that KD is at least 7 feet tall if not taller.

Pretty sure he's 6'10" and change without shoes. I'd bump it to an honest 6'11". You aren't going to present any data I haven't seen. 

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shadow_operative

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9 minutes ago, ztejas said:

Pretty sure he's 6'10" and change without shoes. I'd bump it to an honest 6'11". You aren't going to present any data I haven't seen. 

well obviously short of the two of us personally measuring him (pause) we aren't going to know for sure, but he's visibly taller than guys like boogie and AD, and again, his peers all swear he's at least 7'0".

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hobbes2702

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7 hours ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

The kid needs to seriously bulk up before joining the Association.  At his current weight, no way he gets on the floor much. NBA players can handle a 7'5" bean pole on both ends of the court. 

If Zion could gift this kid 70 lbs, they'd both be better off. 

Just no 

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Mitch Cumsteen

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I'm not nurse rich or anything, but I don't live paycheck to paycheck either. I'm still rather bullish on VW. The injury stuff shouldn't be dismissed, though. 

There are a few things that cloud the discussion. First, we don't know exactly how tall VW is. If he's actually 7'3" I have a difficult time saying that there is much difference between that and the guys in the 7'1" - 7'2" range, some of who had the longest careers in league history and were the most durable players ever - Kareem, Parish, Duncan, Gilmore. Does an inch or two make that much difference to anybody other than South Austin's mom? 

When you get above 7'3", you have a really small sample size. And there's a subset of those who really were just freaks of nature that sat the end of the bench - your Manute Bols and Gheorge Muresons and Chuck Nevitts of the world. Most of those guys had little business in the NBA. They were barely athletes. Shawn Bradley probably also fits into this group, although he was more skilled than the rest of them. 

So after you exclude the circus freaks and unless I'm missing someone, there have really only been 4 guys >= 7'3" who actually could play. Yao, Porzingis, Sampson and Arvydys Sabonis. Again, that's an extremely small sample size. Sabonis played forever (mostly overseas). The other three broke down because of injury. Sampson hurt his knee and instead of letting it heal properly, he rushed back and then fucked up his back. Who knows what happens to his career if he recovers properly? Back then, you just played through it. Kevin McHale did the same thing with his foot injury. He was never the same. Yao had a series of lower leg issues as well. He also had to come back from injury sooner than he should have to play for the Chinese national team. Maybe his career turns out differently as well? Porzingis can't stay healthy but still has a chance to have a long career. I don't think much of his mentality. I'm not sure how great he would ever be even if he were healthy. 

I'm not sure where I'm going with all this but VW is definitely worth the risk. There has never been a guy as skilled and as coordinated as him with that size. With advances in training and medicine and understanding physiology and physics, I have to believe he has a better shot at having a long career than his predecessors. 

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UpperWestside

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My reservation with guys his height has already been detailed in this thread. The strain placed on his frame with the added grind of an 82 game schedule and the playoffs is why I would let someone else draft him. The human body at that height is just not built for the ridiculous grind that is being an NBA player. All the advances in modern medicine cannot change with the body can and cannot handle with someone this tall. I wish that they body could handle the rigors placed upon it so that injuries were never part of the equation for these guys.
 

 

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billfromlaketravis

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6 hours ago, UpperWestside said:

My reservation with guys his height has already been detailed in this thread. The strain placed on his frame with the added grind of an 82 game schedule and the playoffs is why I would let someone else draft him. The human body at that height is just not built for the ridiculous grind that is being an NBA player. All the advances in modern medicine cannot change with the body can and cannot handle with someone this tall. I wish that they body could handle the rigors placed upon it so that injuries were never part of the equation for these guys.
 

 

Any feet issues? I'd rather not go through the Yao BS again. 

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UpperWestside

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1 hour ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Any feet issues? I'd rather not go through the Yao BS again. 

He does not have a foot issue. To me that is largely because his frame is not carrying excess weight that would put a severe strain on his feet.

Looking at his injuries thus far leave me skeptical about his future. If you are taking pre-cautions this early in your athletic career that would be a red flag. For the modern game I would prefer a point forward that can play the 1-4 to build a team around or even a prodigious guard that can fill it up.
 

Again you do not want to see these guys have injuries derail a career. As has already been noted, being the height he is is historically not optimal for a long career. Someone will hedge their bets on him though. I want to see who emerges over the next year that can be another potential number one pick. Again I would not tie my future to this young fella solely because of the injury risk. In a perfect world I would take him 1st overall. Should be fun to see how this ends up.

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ztejas

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9 minutes ago, UpperWestside said:

Again you do not want to see these guys have injuries derail a career. As has already been noted, being the height he is is historically not optimal for a long career. Someone will hedge their bets on him though. I want to see who emerges over the next year that can be another potential number one pick. Again I would not tie my future to this young fella solely because of the injury risk. In a perfect world I would take him 1st overall. Should be fun to see how this ends up.

It could depend on how Chet looks as a rookie. 

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Irieguy

Irieguy 1059

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42 minutes ago, UpperWestside said:

He does not have a foot issue. To me that is largely because his frame is not carrying excess weight that would put a severe strain on his feet.

Looking at his injuries thus far leave me skeptical about his future. If you are taking pre-cautions this early in your athletic career that would be a red flag. For the modern game I would prefer a point forward that can play the 1-4 to build a team around or even a prodigious guard that can fill it up.
 

Again you do not want to see these guys have injuries derail a career. As has already been noted, being the height he is is historically not optimal for a long career. Someone will hedge their bets on him though. I want to see who emerges over the next year that can be another potential number one pick. Again I would not tie my future to this young fella solely because of the injury risk. In a perfect world I would take him 1st overall. Should be fun to see how this ends up.

Scoot Henderson would be a hugely hyped #1 overall in most years.  I would take him over any of the prospects in the 2022 draft. @UpperWestside NBA Superstar. 

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