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2022 House elections

Gil Bang

By Gil Bang
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Js1

Js1 85114

Posted
Posted
15 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

Trump being at the center of the conversation is great for Democrats.  It increases Democratic turnout and reminds Independents what they hate about the GQP and why they can't be voted back into power.

It's really a bizarre dynamic that we've never had.  Usually, the former president has the good sense to go into quiet retirement and build houses for the homeless or paint portraits or some such.  So you can't run against the former president, and nobody in the party that is out of power has a high enough profile to run a national campaign against.  So it's always a referendum on the president, and nobody is ever happy with the president after his first two years.  

But Trump didn't retire.  He's out there making himself the center of attention (and when he's not making himself the center of attention, the January 6 Committee and the DOJ are doing it).  So it's not really a referendum on Biden.  There's actually a choice in this election.  So it has much more of a feel of a presidential year than a normal midterm would.

And then you have the Supreme Court.  Usually when the president's party loses in the midterms, it's because he pursued unpopular policies (either successfully as in the case of the ACA or unsuccessfully as in the case of Clinton's healthcare reform mess).  But now that we live under the Dictatorship of the Judges, the biggest imposer of policies is the Supreme Court.  And there's no question who controls the Supreme Court.  So one should fully expect the GQP to be punished for the policy decisions imposed by SCOTUS.

For his part, Biden has pursued (and achieved) largely popular policies.  The biggest complaint was that he didn't actually pass anything, but that has been addressed over the past month.  All of a sudden, Democratic voters are really energized by everything Dark Brandon has accomplished, and Independents generally support those policies.

And, here's the thing--the Republicans aren't really attacking Biden for those policies.  Bringing it back around to the beginning of this post, they're too busy trying to defend Trump to argue about the Inflation Reduction Act or the CHIPS Act or anything else.  A vote for the GQP really is a vote for Donald Trump.  And the fact remains that, just like in 2020, Donald Trump isn't very popular.

Popular bills pass +

Inflation sees zero increase in the most recent numbers +

Employment rate historically low +

Gas prices headed down + 

Trump can't keep himself out of the news + 

State GOP parties and SCOTUS actively sabotaging themselves

=

Biden's approval starting to nudge back above 40% this month

= 

No red wave.

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Ranked choice needs to be a thing everywhere

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Js1

Js1 85114

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, David Dennison said:

"The Democratic Party primary was canceled. No candidates filed for this race."

It's the job of the party to recruit and field candidates in every race.  Even a token candidate.

If the GOP can run someone against SJL consistently in a D+27 district, TXDP can find someone to run in an R+8 and R+6 district. 

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Pescado_Rojo

Pescado_Rojo 19331

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, David Dennison said:

TIL I'm in TX-31 for the 2022 election.

Still no Democrat on the ballot.

 

 

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Democrats weren't going to win them anyhow.

But TXDems not even fielding candidates - they're so fucking worthless.  Nuke that whole org and start over.  

Donna Imam, who underperformed MJ Hegar by 6 points in losing to John Carter in 2020, decided to try her luck against Lloyd Doggett in TX-37 this time...and lost bigly in the primary. 

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45499

Posted
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On 8/10/2022 at 9:47 AM, The Dog said:

They aren't exactly turning out in droves to protest this. There were more press outside Mar-a-lago then there were MAGA folks after the search warrant was executed. They aren't leaving the comfort of their keyboards to get hauled off to jail.

This didn't age well.  One dead so far.

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The Dog

The Dog 43808

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

 

Donna Imam, who underperformed MJ Hegar by 6 points in losing to John Carter in 2020, decided to try her luck against Lloyd Doggett in TX-37 this time...and lost bigly in the primary. 

Holy shit I just noticed this. 

The Democrats are letting a district that is drifting more and more to them to go UNOPPOSED???

What the fuck are they doing?

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Js1

Js1 85114

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2 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Holy shit I just noticed this. 

The Democrats are letting a district that is drifting more and more to them to go UNOPPOSED???

What the fuck are they doing?

The state party sucks

Beto is the only turnout ground game they have. 

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Pescado_Rojo

Pescado_Rojo 19331

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Holy shit I just noticed this. 

The Democrats are letting a district that is drifting more and more to them to go UNOPPOSED???

What the fuck are they doing?

They redid their gerrymander after 2020 and it is again safely R. Carter might have gotten bailed out more than any other rep in Texas. I think it went from like R+5 and falling to R+16. 

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The Dog

The Dog 43808

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

They redid their gerrymander after 2020 and it is again safely R. Carter might have gotten bailed out more than any other rep in Texas. I think it went from like R+5 and falling to R+16. 

That may be the case today but this area (Williamson) has been trending blue ever since I moved here in 2007. Is R+16 the latest Cook rating? 

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Js1

Js1 85114

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6 minutes ago, The Dog said:

That may be the case today but this area (Williamson) has been trending blue ever since I moved here in 2007. Is R+16 the latest Cook rating? 

R+14. From R+5

TX-25 went from R+8 to R+19

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Js1

Js1 85114

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

All Redistricting went incumbent heavy. Nobody wants to raise money half the time they’re in Congress.

Pretty obvious when they made Fletcher and Allred’s district way safe Dem. Didn’t even bother trying 

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13414

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Gengs1 said:

Don’t understand why they don’t pick some young person to get their feet wet in the whole process 

The "they" is the problem.

I could understand the lack of people that would waste their time in district that was +50. Even if the expected winner gets caught with child porn, he's going to win. And few people like to get killed in an election. However District 31 looks to have a Dem come reasonable close even if they did little to win. Especially in a year that will have a competitive governor race. Lost opportunity.

The info could be wrong but the deadline to file in Texas was Dec 31st. Or I could be reading it incorrectly on ballotpedia.

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Gengs1

Gengs1 2583

Posted
Posted
Just now, Nice Guy Eddie said:

The "they" is the problem.

I could understand the lack of people that would waste their time in district that was +50. Even if the expected winner gets caught with child porn, he's going to win. And few people like to get killed in an election. However District 31 looks to have a Dem come reasonable close even if they did little to win. Especially in a year that will have a competitive governor race. Lost opportunity.

The info could be wrong but the deadline to file in Texas was Dec 31st. Or I could be reading it incorrectly on ballotpedia.

The only explanation 

Smarten Up Dumb People GIF by Travis
 

 

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gmr548

gmr548 16517

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Why do they think it won’t hold? Too many land mines for the democrats between now and November?

The article doesn't address that explicitly. It is probably because the assumption is that the party out of power will clean up and it would take a mountain of data to refute that at this point, with almost three months left until the election. 

For me, I think it is reasonable to think it won't hold. The American electorate's attention span is short. The Trump investigation story has now firmly eclipsed Dobbs as the political elephant in the room (too early to tell on the impact of that). I do think that, absent some really bad economic news (which is probably fairly unlikely at this point), a bigtime red wave is off the table. Dobbs may not hold in terms of making the midterms a neutral environment, but it will get Democrats to the polls. The Republicans may flip the House because they have plenty of pickup opportunities and the wind at their back as the opposition in the midterms, but it is not looking like Republicans are going to flip 30+ House seats, pick off several Democratic incumbent governors and senators, etc.

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Js1

Js1 85114

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Posted
15 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

The article doesn't address that explicitly. It is probably because the assumption is that the party out of power will clean up and it would take a mountain of data to refute that at this point, with almost three months left until the election. 

For me, I think it is reasonable to think it won't hold. The American electorate's attention span is short. The Trump investigation story has now firmly eclipsed Dobbs as the political elephant in the room (too early to tell on the impact of that). I do think that, absent some really bad economic news (which is probably fairly unlikely at this point), a bigtime red wave is off the table. Dobbs may not hold in terms of making the midterms a neutral environment, but it will get Democrats to the polls. The Republicans may flip the House because they have plenty of pickup opportunities and the wind at their back as the opposition in the midterms, but it is not looking like Republicans are going to flip 30+ House seats, pick off several Democratic incumbent governors and senators, etc.

It’s 100% bc “history says” as if we haven’t lived in an era without historical precedence since 2016. There’s no normal anymore.

The minority party is governing like the majority via the courts taking away rights while the “majority” party passes popular legislation. That’s the difference in this midterm. It’s a whole new dynamic. Nate Cohn, Nate Silver and Dave Wasserman acting like it’s going to snap back to the GOP as a foregone conclusion is just them falling back on conventional wisdom bc it’s safer than going out on a limb. 

The Dems’ chances to hold the House are about the same as Trump’s chances to win in 2016. 

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45499

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Js1 said:

It’s 100% bc “history says” as if we haven’t lived in an era without historical precedence since 2016. There’s no normal anymore.

The minority party is governing like the majority via the courts taking away rights while the “majority” party passes popular legislation. That’s the difference in this midterm. It’s a whole new dynamic. Nate Cohn, Nate Silver and Dave Wasserman acting like it’s going to snap back to the GOP as a foregone conclusion is just them falling back on conventional wisdom bc it’s safer than going out on a limb. 

The Dems’ chances to hold the House are about the same as Trump’s chances to win in 2016. 

This.  And NOBODY knows how much of an influence Dobbs will have.  Like 80% of the current voting population wasn't alive when Roe was passed.  There is no accounting for this swing with "polling".  I think Kansas showed us a shit ton, but it's not quantifiable.  

 

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scottsins

scottsins 1953

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 8/12/2022 at 5:10 PM, The Dog said:

Holy shit I just noticed this. 

The Democrats are letting a district that is drifting more and more to them to go UNOPPOSED???

What the fuck are they doing?

Yeah.  TBH, I think Hegar would have been able to beat him this year.  Carter is "my rep" and it's such bullshit that he isn't even opposed.

 

Edit:  I just read the post above re: Gerrymandering, so I guess it makes sense.

Edited by scottsins
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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

Brandon is going to clean up. The only thing preventing is a handful of southern states preventing minority districts in LA and AL (TX if we weren’t pussies) and Ohio.

Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida gerrymandering are so damn disappointing. Makes losing the NY gerrymander a back breaker.

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Mrs Whiggins

Mrs Whiggins 13049

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida gerrymandering are so damn disappointing. Makes losing the NY gerrymander a back breaker.

NC has a Trump endorsed candidate, Bo Hines, that is supposed to be a 'better' version of Madison Cawthorn. Actually graduated from college and has the rep of being an opportunist. Sole goal is to get to DC. The locals that have half a brain apparently dislike him and called him a carpetbagger because one doesn't have to reside in the district to run so Hines shopped around to find the one he thought he could take. Ugh. He won the primary and has a ton of money.

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6540

Posted
Posted

Redistricting on 2020 numbers just never seem smart to me. Probably won’t see turnout that high again except for the states that permanently expanded mail in voting. There used to be a thought process that being actively engaged in 2 straight elections make you a permanent voter. 2018 and 2020 makes me feel that way, regardless of off year 2021 elections, that Dems in 2022 can be counted on until data shows otherwise

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

Posted
Posted
57 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

Redistricting on 2020 numbers just never seem smart to me. Probably won’t see turnout that high again except for the states that permanently expanded mail in voting. There used to be a thought process that being actively engaged in 2 straight elections make you a permanent voter. 2018 and 2020 makes me feel that way, regardless of off year 2021 elections, that Dems in 2022 can be counted on until data shows otherwise

Would be nice. I know dems pretty much punted on the 2010 and 2014 elections and we’ve paid dearly for it ever since in gerrymandered maps, judges, and senate seats.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13414

Posted
Posted

Crazy how the GOP has been hijacked by Trump. The few that don't necessarily like Trump feel they have no choice to go along since they're a minority now. A friend is a hardcore Reagan Republican has effectively retired from talking about politics.

One good aspect about this situation is that the GOP will be in complete disarray after Trump dies. Everyone will claim to be the new standard bearer in place of Trump and the voters will be all over the place. And the few anti-Trump republicans will attempt to re-join the fray. Chaos will rule.

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Js1

Js1 85114

Posted
Posted

538's GCB is now D +0.5

2 weeks ago it was R+0.3

A month ago, it was R+1.7

We started the summer at R+2.2

November 15, 2021, was the last time Democrats led the GCB average

 

NC Senate is even, GA is blue, NV is blue, OH is blue, AZ is blue, PA is blue

 

Biden's approval is now -15 and at 40.2%.  A month ago he was at 38.5% and -17.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Js1 said:

538's GCB is now D +0.5

2 weeks ago it was R+0.3

A month ago, it was R+1.7

We started the summer at R+2.2

November 15, 2021, was the last time Democrats led the GCB average

 

NC Senate is even, GA is blue, NV is blue, OH is blue, AZ is blue, PA is blue

 

Biden's approval is now -15 and at 40.2%.  A month ago he was at 38.5% and -17.

Would be a miracle if his approval got up to 44 or 45. I know before the 2020 election it seemed like dotard’s approval rose a bit.

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chainsaw

chainsaw 9838

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Voldemort86 said:

Would be a miracle if his approval got up to 44 or 45. I know before the 2020 election it seemed like dotard’s approval rose a bit.

I think this is what they're saving the student loan debt relief for. Basically they are orchestrating a consistent drip of positive news into November.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

I think this is what they're saving the student loan debt relief for. Basically they are orchestrating a consistent drip of positive news into November.

Would like to see something happen on marijuana reform. It’s a ballot issue that wins even in deep red states. I wouldn’t be surprised if “inferior” states to Texas like North Dakota, South Dakota, Missouri, and Oklahoma embrace recreational legalization this fall at the polls.

Bathroom Dan really fucking sucks. He’s kept us in the dark ages on this issue all by himself.

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Js1

Js1 85114

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Would be a miracle if his approval got up to 44 or 45. I know before the 2020 election it seemed like dotard’s approval rose a bit.

Gas prices are predicted to remain below $4 into November.  So it's possible.  If we have another month or two where inflation dips like it did in the most recent report, it's highly likely. 

Should also add if they can pass the standalone insulin bill and gay marriage bill, it would do so much good for his approval as well.  Line it all up leading into November.  

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chainsaw

chainsaw 9838

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Would like to see something happen on marijuana reform. It’s a ballot issue that wins even in deep red states. I wouldn’t be surprised if “inferior” states to Texas like North Dakota, South Dakota, Missouri, and Oklahoma embrace recreational legalization this fall at the polls.

Bathroom Dan really fucking sucks. He’s kept us in the dark ages on this issue all by himself.

Is it going to be on the ballot here?

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

Posted
Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Is it going to be on the ballot here?

No…….Texans in the legislature have made sure that we don’t have a ballot initiative process like many states do. They really don’t care about Texans and don’t care what we think. They just want as much power as possible.

I could collect 5 million signatures from Texans supporting the legalization of marijuana and it wouldn’t mean jack shit because there’s no process for an everyday citizen to qualify something for the ballot in Texas.

meanwhile, people in Oklahoma and the dakotas are coming up with the necessary number of signatures. Those states actually do give their citizens some input. will be interesting to see if they pass it. I hope they do and I think it will win in some deep red states this fall.

Edited by Voldemort86
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Js1

Js1 85114

Posted
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Is it going to be on the ballot here?

Bahahaha, no.  Ballot measures in Texas have to clear 2/3rds of the both chambers of Abbott and Patrick's reichstag before it ends up on the ballot for the masses to vote for.

Aka, never.  

Edited by Js1
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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Bahahaha, no.  Ballot measures in Texas have to clear 2/3rds of the both chambers of Abbott and Patrick's reichstag before it ends up on the ballot for the masses to vote for.

Aka, never.  

I admit. I didn’t even know that rule and I’m surprised it’s even there. I think they could get close to 2/3’s support in the house, but probably struggle to get 1/3 in the senate.

The Texas senate is way way way behind the times. Holy shit those people probably don’t even know what iPhones are.

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