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2022 House elections

Gil Bang

By Gil Bang
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YChang
YChang

Ranked choice needs to be a thing everywhere

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Js1

Js1 85,764

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Concerning? Very.

Fung does seem stuck around 44-45.  Wasserman also highlighted that problem - is that Fung's ceiling? Magaziner is not consolidating the Dem base, but will they come home next month is the big question.  13% undecided is a big number. 

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Gil Bang

Gil Bang 26,100

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A woman alleges that Oregon Republican congressional candidate Mike Erickson paid for her abortion in 2001. However, the multimillionaire businessman refuses to admit it, saying only that he gave her $300 and drove her to a “doctor’s office” in Portland, Oregon. He maintains that he had no idea what kind of medical appointment it was.

 

The story first broke in 2008 during an earlier failed campaign by Erickson, who has run on anti-abortion platform for years. Now, the shipping executive maintains that he was not close with the woman at the center of the story and never asked her to get an abortion.

Last month, the Oregonian editorial board met with Erickson and his opponent, Democratic state Rep. Andrea Salinas, to decide whom to endorse for the state’s newly created 6th Congressional District. During the interview, editorial board members questioned him about paying for the abortion, along with questions about his past driving-while-drunk charge.

“I dropped her off at a medical clinic by Lloyd Center and she didn’t say she was going to get an abortion,” Erickson replied. “I helped her out because the girl I was dating—you said girlfriend—this girl I was dating, and she was living with her boyfriend. We covered all that in the past. They had a child together. I think they were breaking up or something and wanted some help. I helped this person out. Period. I feel bad for what’s happened to her in the situation on the TV and in the press. But what my opponents put on TV is not what you guys, the Oregonian, reported. You put in there, you interviewed her: ‘Mike never asked me or encouraged me.’”

In 2008, the newspaper published a front-page story about the woman’s experience. The woman, who only went by Tawnya, said she met Erickson at an Oktoberfest event in September 2000. At the time, she was a single mother with a 3-year-old who made $13.77 an hour. Erickson introduced himself by giving her his card with his “president” title of a shipping advisory company.

She says they dated for a few months, though Erickson was emphatic in the September 2022 interview that they were not a couple. He was just helping out a “girl I was dating.”

Tawnya—then 26 to Erickson’s 37—said in the 2008 interview that she was sobbing so much going into the clinic that “I couldn’t speak.” She recalled that Erickson “looked like he cared.”

 

“I asked him, ‘Are you sure you don’t want a baby?’” she said. “He shook his head. I opened the door, got out bawling and crossed the street and walked up to the clinic.”

Erickson, 45, said he dated Tawnya “for a couple of months.” He told The Oregonian he didn’t remember many details about their relationship, including where they met or when they dated. He said she betrayed no emotion during the car ride.

“Did I pay for an abortion? Absolutely not,” Erickson said.

“She was having some financial troubles,” he said. “She asked for some money to go have a doctor’s appointment — not knowing what that was — and whatever happened, happened, I guess. I didn’t even know she had an abortion.”

 

Jezebel sent a list of questions to Erickson’s campaign on Monday night, and the campaign has not responded. Jezebel also reached out to the woman but is not naming her, as she is not a public figure.

Erickson has said Oregon’s abortion law, one of the strongest in the nation, should “be looked at” for possible changes—even though he told the Oregonian that he’s a “states’ rights advocate.” During this campaign, Erickson submitted answers to a voter guide compiled by the American Family Association Action, a group that wants America to embrace its “biblical foundations.”

Erickson’s own alleged abortion experience has remained out of national news, despite the closeness of the race. The Cook Political Report rated the new district as only “lean Democrat.” National Journal Hotline polling found a slight edge for Republicans. (A data analysis estimated that President Biden carried voters in the area by 13 points, had the congressional district existed during the 2020 campaign.)

 

Decades of history show that the ruling party loses seats in midterm House elections. However, there’s never been an election quite like this one. After the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June, voters have indicated that abortion rights are the primary factor motivating them to vote in November.

 
 
 
 
 
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Js1

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1 hour ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

 

Not gonna unskew but they have Biden’s approval at 39% and women tied. Maybe they just got a more R-sample in their Lv. You publish what you get, you don’t hide results 

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 48,314

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38 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Why are so many 45-65 year olds republicans?  I hate gen X.

Because they were raised by shitty boomers. Listen, the two biggest voting demographics are Boomers and Millennials, and both of those generations are the fruit of shitty as Baby Boomers, but Gen X is the problem here? Lol. 

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Js1

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Nate Cohn did come out last week and confirm during the polling that they were getting the worst fucking response rate.  They aren't in the field as much as some of the others have been.

Throw it on the pile. 

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C-Man

C-Man 27,354

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20 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Because they were raised by shitty boomers. Listen, the two biggest voting demographics are Boomers and Millennials, and both of those generations are the fruit of shitty as Baby Boomers, but Gen X is the problem here? Lol. 

I'm Gen X who identified as middle-skewing Republican for the most part until DOTARD's ass-hattery started in 2015/16. (EDIT: hated the Tea Party fuckery too.) Also, the oldest Gen X'ers are 57 or so and we skew down to 42 in that graphic. We are also the smallest generation currently walking the earth, I think. Not saying we don't own some of the suck but we are not a big player in that graphic.

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 48,314

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5 minutes ago, C-Man said:

I'm Gen X who identified as middle-skewing Republican for the most part until DOTARD's ass-hattery started in 2015/16. (EDIT: hated the Tea Party fuckery too.) Also, the oldest Gen X'ers are 57 or so and we skew down to 42 in that graphic. We are also the smallest generation currently walking the earth, I think. Not saying we don't own some of the suck but we are not a big player in that graphic.

I mean, we have the same profile and the same opinions on this topic, so yeah. Have some rep. 

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YGIFS

YGIFS 19,453

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How the fuck are people still unregistered in this day and age?  I get not voting in mid-terms, I don't like it, but I get it.  But unless you're a felon or an amputee, you have a try real fucking hard to avoid, even accidentally, not being registered to vote.  Like, it takes more work to stay unregistered than it does to register.  

And yes, as a Gen X'er, we are woefully underrepresented in politics.  But it's our fault.  Everybody on my little street was born between '65 and '80.  All highly educated, plus me the dumb one.  And almost to a person, incredibly apathetic about politics.  One guy has a Kirk Watson for Mayor sign in his yard but only 'cause he's in commercial real estate.  

I'll wager a lot that voter turnout on my street is less than statewide turnout.  Which is sad given that everyone makes their own hours and our polling place is literally within walking distance.  

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C-Man

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10 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

How the fuck are people still unregistered in this day and age?  I get not voting in mid-terms, I don't like it, but I get it.  But unless you're a felon or an amputee, you have a try real fucking hard to avoid, even accidentally, not being registered to vote.  Like, it takes more work to stay unregistered than it does to register.  

And yes, as a Gen X'er, we are woefully underrepresented in politics.  But it's our fault.  Everybody on my little street was born between '65 and '80.  All highly educated, plus me the dumb one.  And almost to a person, incredibly apathetic about politics.  One guy has a Kirk Watson for Mayor sign in his yard but only 'cause he's in commercial real estate.  

I'll wager a lot that voter turnout on my street is less than statewide turnout.  Which is sad given that everyone makes their own hours and our polling place is literally within walking distance.  

I've dated or been married to my barely-Gen X wife (born in '80) since 2012. She hasn't voted a single time since I've known her -- and she was a Republican until 18 months ago probably. Her mother watches Tucker and Hannity every single day. Love my in-laws but their politics suck. I'm not sure if my wife is voting straight ticket in the next couple of weeks but I know for a fact that she's voting for Beto and against Patrick, Paxton and the rest of the worst of the worst GQP'ers in Texas. I couldn't be prouder of her.

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PenelopeWitherspoon

PenelopeWitherspoon 19,243

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I am Gen X.  I have a very mixed bag on voting.  I have been registered as an Independent most of my adult life, and have voted for both Democrats and Republicans.  However, given the bullshit the Republicans have done, I honestly do not think I would pull the lever for another Republican again.  I am holding my nose and voting for Nadler as my Rep since he knocked Maloney out thanks to the bullshit redo of the NY redistricting (The Commission fucked over the UES and UWS).

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YGIFS

YGIFS 19,453

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Sounds like my in-laws.  Wife usually votes Republican, but she voted against Trump twice.  And is really having a hard time convincing herself to vote for Abbott.  The Uvalde aftermath did not sit well with her, at all.  She is the strongest woman I know and only asks me about local races because often people we know in real life are running for thing.  But I am genuinely unsure how she'll vote when the ballot is actually in front of her later this month.  And it gets me to thinking about how many women in Texas genuinely hate Abbott and Patrick, but will likely still pull the lever for them because their husbands "told them to."  Which is doubly sad and doubly ironic. 

I bet 5% of Texas women voters will vote Republican because their husbands will walk with them into the polling place, and ask to see her ballot before she puts it in the final counting machine deal by the exit.  and that will be enough to put them over the top on election night.  

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BehoId, The Underminer!

BehoId, The Underminer! 11,669

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Well, now G Elliot is just confusing things.  Comments point out there are 790 people in that poll.  Evidently G Elliott was talking about 77 black people.  I don’t know the math on slicing up into subgroups, checking subgroup MOE and applying to larger group.  So who know NYT real MOE. 

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2,259

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26 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

Sounds like my in-laws.  Wife usually votes Republican, but she voted against Trump twice.  And is really having a hard time convincing herself to vote for Abbott.  The Uvalde aftermath did not sit well with her, at all.  She is the strongest woman I know and only asks me about local races because often people we know in real life are running for thing.  But I am genuinely unsure how she'll vote when the ballot is actually in front of her later this month.  And it gets me to thinking about how many women in Texas genuinely hate Abbott and Patrick, but will likely still pull the lever for them because their husbands "told them to."  Which is doubly sad and doubly ironic. 

I bet 5% of Texas women voters will vote Republican because their husbands will walk with them into the polling place, and ask to see her ballot before she puts it in the final counting machine deal by the exit.  and that will be enough to put them over the top on election night.  

Texas and the south in general are “husband told me to vote this way” states until further notice. 

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Voldemort86

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1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

Because they were raised by shitty boomers. Listen, the two biggest voting demographics are Boomers and Millennials, and both of those generations are the fruit of shitty as Baby Boomers, but Gen X is the problem here? Lol. 

Seemed like most of the people who raided the capitol were Gen X. I really wish the police cracked some skulls that day. I wish those people would be punished more than they have been.

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YGIFS

YGIFS 19,453

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Yeah, I personally witnessed it on more than one occasion over the years, where a husband-out loud-asks to see his wife's ballot before she puts in that scanner deal.  Never really paid it much thought, but this particular cycle and the all-out assault and saying out loud that women are second-class citizens who need to be managed by the government, I'm guessing that the ~5% of GOP-voting women are doing so under a literal threat of violence or at minimum being screamed at.

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SydneyCarton

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Just now, Voldemort86 said:

Seemed like most of the people who raided the capitol were Gen X. I really wish the police cracked some skulls that day. I wish those people would be punished more than they have been.

Do you think that might be because millenials and Gen Zers lean left, and boomers are all old as fuck and aren't generally up for travel and light treason these days? My parents are 76. All you've proved is that the most mobile version of the insurrectionists are in a certain age demographic. And yeah, I wish more folks had been fucking shot too. 

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