2022 House elections

[Gengs1 2583]

3 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

If the Captain had liked him, that DUI would have morphed into a week painting rocks outside the HQ and never would have become official.

Either the Captain didn't like him, or this was the third time similar dumbassery took place.

/Speaking as a guy who sat and watched our Captain disappear some charges against a few buffoons on the condition that they would become the First Sergeant's slaves. So that they learn.

It depends, if The Japanese police got him and he hit a local, his name would have been on the local newspapers and hard to make that disappear. The Japanese papers love to catch soldiers and they make front page news.

https://www.stripes.com/theaters/asia_pacific/2022-08-29/okinawa-dui-arrests-military-7141217.html

[RDCanecutter 26282]

1 minute ago, Gengs1 said:

It depends, if The Japanese police got him and he hit a local, his name would have been on the local newspapers and hard to make that disappear. The Japanese papers love to catch soldiers and they make front page news.

https://www.stripes.com/theaters/asia_pacific/2022-08-29/okinawa-dui-arrests-military-7141217.html

Seeing as how this is Majewski, did the DUI even happen, or is it the next layer in an onion of lies?

[Gengs1 2583]

1 minute ago, RDCanecutter said:

Seeing as how this is Majewski, did the DUI even happen, or is it the next layer in an onion of lies?

He admitted to it so it was probably way worse then a dui 

[Voldemort86 2259]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/battleground-tracker-gop-house-lead-133020276.html
 

GOP house lead shrinking?

[Gil Bang 25898]

It depends, if The Japanese police got him and he hit a local, his name would have been on the local newspapers and hard to make that disappear. The Japanese papers love to catch soldiers and they make front page news.
https://www.stripes.com/theaters/asia_pacific/2022-08-29/okinawa-dui-arrests-military-7141217.html

It was probably on Kadena so the Japanese authorities wouldn’t have been involved.

[Tuco 5076]

It’s not really worth entertaining that his Sergeant liked him despite the DUI. He had to lie about his service because he is the kind of person who would lie about his service. That is a character defect that doesn’t mix well with authority. Or teamwork. E2. Can’t reenlist. Yeah, I don’t think he had too many bosses looking to go out of their way to protect him.

[atomheartbevo 89449]

10 minutes ago, Tuco said:

It’s not really worth entertaining that his Sergeant liked him despite the DUI. He had to lie about his service because he is the kind of person who would lie about his service. That is a character defect that doesn’t mix well with authority. Or teamwork. E2. Can’t reenlist. Yeah, I don’t think he had too many bosses looking to go out of their way to protect him.

He really fucked up by talking about Afghanistan.  Had he kept his mouth shut, or simply said he served in an unglamorous job and there was nothing special about it and he was nowhere near a combat zone, and we should focus on those who served in Afghanistan and Iraq, we wouldn't be talking about it now.

The stolen valor community is quite gruntled over this - on the one hand, it attracts plenty of MAGA types who are always chasing after stolen valor shit, but on the other hand, he committed a cardinal sin.

[Js1 85112]

It is September 29, 2022.

Election Day is November 8, 2022.

Illinois, Michigan and North Dakota in-person early voting has already started.  Mail ballots are already going out in some states, or soon to be. 

[StassneyHorn 6540]

I’ll eventually start an early voting thread for Texas when in person starts, only I can start that official thread and will murder anyone else who does, but until then Michael McDonald from the Election Project tracks EV for every state on his website and is good to follow on Twitter

https://rpubs.com/ElectProject/early_vote_2022

 

[GopherRock 1765]

Early voting is under way in Minnesota as well.

And I'm not sure that polling has fully captured the downballot effect of Dobbs, especially in Michigan with the abortion protection measure on the ballot that will win 65-35 or thereabouts. I realize that not all of that 65 are Democrats, but having this at the top of the ballot is not conducive to red wins.

I know Pete Meijer's seat over in Grand Rapids is a place that Democrats are on the offensive, but are there any other House districts that could get swamped by the measure?

[Voldemort86 2259]

3 hours ago, GopherRock said:

Early voting is under way in Minnesota as well.

And I'm not sure that polling has fully captured the downballot effect of Dobbs, especially in Michigan with the abortion protection measure on the ballot that will win 65-35 or thereabouts. I realize that not all of that 65 are Democrats, but having this at the top of the ballot is not conducive to red wins.

I know Pete Meijer's seat over in Grand Rapids is a place that Democrats are on the offensive, but are there any other House districts that could get swamped by the measure?

I think it’s supposed to help slotkin win re-election.

[tx 3 putt 76402]

#teamearlyvoting

 

[Dutchrudder 11115]

This is a really interesting breakdown of the House control. The margins is very slim right now, even with all the insane redistricting that has taken place in the last few years. This would have been a slam dunk for the Dems if not for a few red states avoiding even moderately fair district lines. It's really insane that we still have to deal with gerrymandering in 2022, but here we are. This is a link to the NYT House outcomes, which is pretty interesting to go through.  

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/30/upshot/midterms-gerrymandering-republicans.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20220930&instance_id=73319&nl=the-morning&regi_id=99437827&segment_id=108529&te=1&user_id=8fcaa3674806a8ff8bb78505369d3808

 

Quote

There is no shortage of reasons Republicans are expected to retake the House this year, including President Biden’s low approval ratings and the long history of struggles for the president’s party in midterm elections.

But there’s another issue that looms over the race for the House, one that doesn’t have anything to do with the candidates or the voters at all: the fairness of the newly redrawn congressional maps.

You might assume that the House map is heavily gerrymandered toward Republicans, especially after Republicans enacted aggressive gerrymanders in critical states like Texas and Florida. Many of you might even presume that this gerrymandering means that the House isn’t merely likely to go to the Republicans, but that it’s also out of reach for Democrats under any realistic circumstances.

In reality, Republicans do have a structural edge in the House, but it isn’t anything near insurmountable for the Democrats. By some measures, this is the fairest House map of the last 40 years.

Here’s one way to think about it: If you believe Democrats have a good chance to win the Senate, they ought to at least have a chance to win the House — even if Republicans are favored there.

Let’s start with a simple fact: On the new House map, 226 districts would have voted for Mr. Biden in 2020, compared with 209 for Donald J. Trump.

Now, Mr. Biden won the national vote by 4.5 percentage points, so even a map that’s biased toward Republicans might still have more Biden districts than Trump districts. But the simple fact that Mr. Biden won the most districts is a clear enough indication that the Republican advantage in the House isn’t totally insurmountable.

To account for Mr. Biden’s victory in 2020, a somewhat better — though more complex — measure is needed: a comparison between how districts voted and how the nation as a whole voted. If Mr. Biden won a district by more than he did nationally, it might be said to be a district where Democrats have the advantage if the national vote is tied. On a perfectly fair map, half the districts would lean toward Democrats with respect to the nation, while half would vote for Mr. Trump or vote for Mr. Biden by less than 4.5 points. And on this perfectly fair map, the district right in the middle — the median district — would have voted for Mr. Biden by 4.5 points, just like the nation.

So what does this House look like by those measures? The median district backed Mr. Biden by 2.1 points, a little bit more to the right of the nation as a whole. And overall, there are 215 districts where Mr. Biden won by at least 4.5 percentage points, compared with 220 districts where Mr. Trump won or where Mr. Biden won by less than 4.5 points.

Both of these measures show a map tilted toward Republicans. To retain control of the House in our hypothetical, Democrats would need to win at least three districts where Mr. Biden did worse than he did nationwide, including a district where he won by 2.1 points or less. Republicans could theoretically prevail by defending districts where Mr. Trump won or lost by less than he did nationwide.

This is a real Republican edge, but it is not a daunting one for Democrats. Here are three ways to put it in perspective.

First, the Republican edge is flimsy. In a chamber with dozens of competitive races, a three-seat advantage just isn’t that much. If Republicans nominated a few too many unelectable stop-the-steal candidates or if a few too many Democratic incumbents proved too resilient, the Republican structural edge would evaporate.

Second, the edge is historically small. In fact, there are more Democratic-tilting districts — 215 — than at any time in the last 40 years.

As recently as 2012, there were just 195 districts where Barack Obama had fared better than average nationwide in the prior election. That was such a large advantage that you really could (and I did!) dismiss the possibility of a Democratic win anytime soon, even if the party could narrowly win the House popular vote. Not anymore.

Third, the Republican structural advantage is fairly comparable to that of the Senate and the Electoral College — two bodies where, yes, the Republicans command structural advantages, but where no one really questions whether the Democrats can win.

Consider this: While Democrats could win the House by carrying every district that Mr. Biden won by at least 2.1 points, the Democrats would lose the presidency and the Senate if they only won states where Mr. Biden won by 2.1 or more. In the Senate races, Georgia and Arizona seats would flip to the Republicans, while Democrats would fail to flip seats in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Ohio.

Or put differently, if Democrats can win the House races that resemble Senate contests in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Nevada, they can probably win the House.

There is one catch in this comparison, and here’s where gerrymandering comes into play: Democrats will need to win a higher proportion of competitive districts than they do in the Senate.

For illustration, let’s define a “competitive” state or district using what we’ll call the North Carolina-Virginia range — meaning identifying every district that voted between Mr. Trump’s 1.3-point victory in North Carolina and Mr. Biden’s 10.1-point win in Virginia. This is a convenient measure because both states diverged roughly 5.7 points from the national vote in 2020, North Carolina to the right and Virginia to the left.

To win the Senate this year in our scenario, Democrats would need to win four of the seven races in the Virginia-to-North Carolina range. To win the House, Democrats would need to win about 72 percent of the districts in that Virginia-to-North Carolina zone, or five in seven races.

Winning five of seven competitive seats is a tough burden for Democrats, especially in a midterm year. But is it impossible? It certainly isn’t impossible for Democrats to win five of the seven key Senate races — in fact, Democrats might well be the favorites in five of the seven Senate races right now. A similarly impressive run in the House might be more of a challenge, but Democrats would bring many of the same advantages to the table — like stop-the-steal Republican nominees and a disproportionate number of Democratic incumbents.

None of this means Democrats are going to win the House. But if they don’t, it may not be so simple to blame gerrymandering.

 

 

[Willfully Horn 7916]

On 9/21/2022 at 1:59 PM, Voldemort86 said:

Ohio makes me so angry with their 13-2 Republican gerrymander in what’s probably a 55-45 Republican state. I doubt the voters will even care in this shithole.

I just learned that Ohio is districted according to a map that their courts rejected as unconstitutional.The delay tactic was successfully employed, no acceptable map was proffered, and the state is using the illegal districting map.

The rule of Law was not adequate to meet the task of providing Ohio voters a constitutionally suitable districting map; delays defeated it. 

Republicans only care about the law when they can use it to punish others or benefit themselves. They are an organization that acts with contempt for the law and are a threat to a peaceful Republic.
 

https://ohiocapitaljournal.com/2022/09/02/redistricting-one-year-later-ohio-a-unique-flawed-case/

 

[Biff Tannen 45499]

1 hour ago, Willfully Horn said:

I just learned that Ohio is districted according to a map that their courts rejected as unconstitutional.The delay tactic was successfully employed, no acceptable map was proffered, and the state is using the illegal districting map.

The rule of Law was not adequate to meet the task of providing Ohio voters a constitutionally suitable districting map; delays defeated it. 

Republicans only care about the law when they can use it to punish others or benefit themselves. They are an organization that acts with contempt for the law and are a threat to a peaceful Republic.
 

https://ohiocapitaljournal.com/2022/09/02/redistricting-one-year-later-ohio-a-unique-flawed-case/

 

Sounds very similar to the tactics a certain orange douchebag uses.  Hell, also our own state AG.

[Willfully Horn 7916]

Just now, Biff Tannen said:

Sounds very similar to the tactics a certain orange douchebag uses.  Hell, also our own state AG.

Truth. Also true that, for reasons beyond my ken, lawyers defend the delaying tactic.

[Voldemort86 2259]

7 hours ago, Willfully Horn said:

I just learned that Ohio is districted according to a map that their courts rejected as unconstitutional.The delay tactic was successfully employed, no acceptable map was proffered, and the state is using the illegal districting map.

The rule of Law was not adequate to meet the task of providing Ohio voters a constitutionally suitable districting map; delays defeated it. 

Republicans only care about the law when they can use it to punish others or benefit themselves. They are an organization that acts with contempt for the law and are a threat to a peaceful Republic.
 

https://ohiocapitaljournal.com/2022/09/02/redistricting-one-year-later-ohio-a-unique-flawed-case/

 

A majority in the Ohio Supreme Court which consisted of democrats and the Chief Justice, whose a Republican, struck down 10 different rigged variations of Ohio congressional maps. Ohio voters voted in favor of a statewide ballot initiative which says something like the maps have to be fair and reflect the partisanship of the state.

the Ohio legislature, which is dominated by republicans, just waited out the court until the election got closer so they could use their rigged maps. The long term plan is to wait until the supreme justice retires this year, so they can replace her with a Republican who doesn’t care about the law and will let them rig to their hearts content.

Ohio should be a 10 GOP- 5 dem state at worst, but the rigging is so extreme that it might be 13-2. I hope in the 2030 census they lose 2 seats so the repubs will have nowhere else to go but to kill off 2 repubs. Assholes.

[Voldemort86 2259]

7 hours ago, Willfully Horn said:

I just learned that Ohio is districted according to a map that their courts rejected as unconstitutional.The delay tactic was successfully employed, no acceptable map was proffered, and the state is using the illegal districting map.

The rule of Law was not adequate to meet the task of providing Ohio voters a constitutionally suitable districting map; delays defeated it. 

Republicans only care about the law when they can use it to punish others or benefit themselves. They are an organization that acts with contempt for the law and are a threat to a peaceful Republic.
 

https://ohiocapitaljournal.com/2022/09/02/redistricting-one-year-later-ohio-a-unique-flawed-case/

 

3 other states are using flawed / rigged maps using this Republican “rope a dope” strategy. Louisiana and Alabama should each have 1 more minority seat to reflect their statewide population, but the Supreme Court won’t decide until this or next year and gave them a stay to use their rigged maps in the meantime.

Florida tried to follow the law and pass a fair map as is the rule in their state, but Detrumpis veto’s and jammed thru an extremely partisan crappy gerrymander. Dems will lose 3 seats in Florida alone because of this. The map isn’t totally settled, they will rule on it sometime after the election.

the North Carolina GOP was forced to draw a fair map, but they want to get rid of some retiring dem justices, replace them with repubs, and vote on a new map as early as next year despite the fact that it took about 8 years for them to fix their previous rigged map from 2010. It didn’t get fixed until 2018.

meanwhile…… dems in Maryland and New York struck down their own maps that were supposed to offset these screw jobs in the aforementioned states. Dem justices were the ones who struck them down. A total disgrace. New York and Maryland needs to make sure they’re ready for the 2030 cycle because the GOP won’t stop looking for ways to screw over dems and disenfranchise voters by not giving them competitive races.

[Willfully Horn 7916]

1 hour ago, Voldemort86 said:

3 other states are using flawed / rigged maps using this Republican “rope a dope” strategy. Louisiana and Alabama should each have 1 more minority seat to reflect their statewide population, but the Supreme Court won’t decide until this or next year and gave them a stay to use their rigged maps in the meantime.

Florida tried to follow the law and pass a fair map as is the rule in their state, but Detrumpis veto’s and jammed thru an extremely partisan crappy gerrymander. Dems will lose 3 seats in Florida alone because of this. The map isn’t totally settled, they will rule on it sometime after the election.

the North Carolina GOP was forced to draw a fair map, but they want to get rid of some retiring dem justices, replace them with repubs, and vote on a new map as early as next year despite the fact that it took about 8 years for them to fix their previous rigged map from 2010. It didn’t get fixed until 2018.

meanwhile…… dems in Maryland and New York struck down their own maps that were supposed to offset these screw jobs in the aforementioned states. Dem justices were the ones who struck them down. A total disgrace. New York and Maryland needs to make sure they’re ready for the 2030 cycle because the GOP won’t stop looking for ways to screw over dems and disenfranchise voters by not giving them competitive races.

Both MD and NY are voting within districts that now have court approval, que no?

[Gengs1 2583]

Republicans playing to win anyway and dems are not…. Sad

[Voldemort86 2259]

2 minutes ago, Gengs1 said:

Republicans playing to win anyway and dems are not…. Sad

Dems also have bipartisan map drawing commissions in most states they control. These bipartisan commissions always give the GOP a much fairer shake than Republican controlled states with Republican controlled legislatures give the democrats in their states.

[Dutchrudder 11115]

3 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Dems also have bipartisan map drawing commissions in most states they control. These bipartisan commissions always give the GOP a much fairer shake than Republican controlled states with Republican controlled legislatures give the democrats in their states.

That's just how it is, and illustrates why it's important to have those commissions doing the maps. Unfortunately, we don't have a Supreme Court that would agree to institute it across the board.  Congress should pass a law specifically for this purpose to help make the state districts more fair and remove politics from the equation as much as possible.

[cactusflinthead 27594]

 

Edited October 2, 2022 by cactusflinthead

[Voldemort86 2259]

6 hours ago, Dutchrudder said:

That's just how it is, and illustrates why it's important to have those commissions doing the maps. Unfortunately, we don't have a Supreme Court that would agree to institute it across the board.  Congress should pass a law specifically for this purpose to help make the state districts more fair and remove politics from the equation as much as possible.

The commissions don’t do any good if they’re just in blue / purple states. Right now, we’re just doing the GOP a favor.

[Voldemort86 2259]

Guessing it won’t end well since nobody is talking about it and South Carolina is a bunch of secession loving red necks anyway.

[Js1 85112]

Ouch at the bottom 2

 

[Horn Under a Bad Sign 20345]

Boebert now in a statistical tie:


Boebert in statistical tie with challenger in reelection bid: Democratic poll (yahoo.com)


 

[Voldemort86 2259]

14 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Ouch at the bottom 2

 

Overall I’d say this is a good update. 

I’ve already given up on TX-15 and I’m still skeptical that Flores can win. The dems should at least win that seat by a few points, but the RGV is like a mini Florida with the dems. I always felt Will Hurd had no business winning elections out there, but he did. Maybe RGV will disappoint us again by voting against their own self interests.

[Js1 85112]

1 hour ago, Voldemort86 said:

Overall I’d say this is a good update. 

I’ve already given up on TX-15 and I’m still skeptical that Flores can win. The dems should at least win that seat by a few points, but the RGV is like a mini Florida with the dems. I always felt Will Hurd had no business winning elections out there, but he did. Maybe RGV will disappoint us again by voting against their own self interests.

TX-34 was designed to be a Dem vote sink (Biden +15) so that TX-34 would be a Trump district.

So Flores, who continuously votes like she's in a Trump +15 district since she won the special election, should be toast.  Texas Dems might be done for a long time if the RGV trend never reverses. 

[StassneyHorn 6540]

Will Hurd was West Texas.

[Voldemort86 2259]

6 minutes ago, Js1 said:

TX-34 was designed to be a Dem vote sink (Biden +15) so that TX-34 would be a Trump district.

So Flores, who continuously votes like she's in a Trump +15 district since she won the special election, should be toast.  Texas Dems might be done for a long time if the RGV trend never reverses. 

Yeah I thought it was just pissed off Hispanics who got duped by Trumps bullshit in 2020 blaming all the shutdowns and inconveniences from covid in their lives on the democrats. I didn’t think it would be a permanent shift to the GOP tho because the gop only cares about straight, upper middle class- rich white people.

Edited October 5, 2022 by Voldemort86

[Js1 85112]

34 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Yeah I thought it was just pissed off Hispanics who got duped by Trumps bullshit in 2020 blaming all the shutdowns and inconveniences from covid in their lives on the democrats. I didn’t think it would be a permanent shift to the GOP tho because the gop only cares about straight, upper middle class- rich white people.

Someone will have egg on their face. Cook or this poll

 

[tx 3 putt 76402]

that cameron county poll better be in spanish 

[tx 3 putt 76402]

 

[Gil Bang 25898]

 

[Gengs1 2583]

6 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

He won’t, he is pretty safe 

[tx 3 putt 76402]

3 minutes ago, Gengs1 said:

He won’t, he is pretty safe 

 

shame him to death 

[Gengs1 2583]

Just now, tx 3 putt said:

 

shame him to death 

If he had any shame to begin with 

[Gil Bang 25898]

 

[Js1 85112]

8 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

 

Ana Navarro’s husband. Race was just moved a bit in Dems’ favor today 

[Voldemort86 2259]

2 hours ago, Js1 said:

Ana Navarro’s husband. Race was just moved a bit in Dems’ favor today 

Not expecting much from Florida this year.

[tx 3 putt 76402]

 

[Biff Tannen 45499]

On 10/5/2022 at 10:19 AM, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

Boebert now in a statistical tie:


Boebert in statistical tie with challenger in reelection bid: Democratic poll (yahoo.com)


 

WTF Colorado?

[Gil Bang 25898]

 

[Biff Tannen 45499]

1 hour ago, Gil Bang said:

 

What is wrong with them you ask?  All modern republicans are conmen and grifters.  All of them.  That's what's wrong.

[atomheartbevo 89449]

Start with the fact that his name is Tyler.

[Zonahorn 8079]

 

[tx 3 putt 76402]

uhh, women can make the decision ...

 

[Dutchrudder 11115]

41 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

uhh, women can make the decision ...

 

How about no? Two dumbs don't make a smart.

[tx 3 putt 76402]