2022 House elections

[Voldemort86 2259]

Well since other people in this thread posted their situations. Im a millennial and I’ve voted in every presidential election since 2008. Voting history is Obama twice, Clinton once, and Biden.

Skipped the 2010 and 2014 midterms, but voted in 2018 and won’t miss the midterms ever again.

[Js1 85112]

28 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Well, now G Elliot is just confusing things.  Comments point out there are 790 people in that poll.  Evidently G Elliott was talking about 77 black people.  I don’t know the math on slicing up into subgroups, checking subgroup MOE and applying to larger group.  So who know NYT real MOE. 

There was a lot of people (GOP) crowing about the GOP winning 18% of the black vote in this poll.  The subgroups are wonky in this poll -

GOP winning 18% of black vote (87-12 in 2020), women tied 44-44 (57-42 in 2020), 18-29 52-40 (60-36 in 2020), 30-44 50-41 (52-46 in 2020)

[Tuco 5076]

Nate Cohn did come out last week and confirm during the polling that they were getting the worst fucking response rate.  They aren't in the field as much as some of the others have been.
Throw it on the pile. 

Put it on billboards. Dems get way too complacent when they think they’re going to win.

[Longhorn_Fan68 33843]

I'll be 44 in a little over a month. Squarely in the GenX category. My generation could do a lot more, but apparently we don't want to. My prez votes have been Bush, Kerry, Obama, Obama, Clinton, and Biden. About the year I finished UT in '02 (holy shit, that was 20 years ago - fuck) is when I started realizing the GOP is full of fucking bullshit. Have not voted for any R candidate since 2000.

[WBT 20422]

1 hour ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

G Elliot saying it’s BS

 

 

 

Correct me if I'm wrong Sandy, but if p = 0.18, 1-p = 0.82 and not the 0.72 that G Elliott typed in.  If you're going to be that snarky you should probably get the numbers right.  It moves the MOE from 11.1 to 8.6%.

[Pig Bellmont 8692]

Nothing to see here… just a normal non corrupt and fair democracy 

[Voldemort86 2259]

2 hours ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

I'll be 44 in a little over a month. Squarely in the GenX category. My generation could do a lot more, but apparently we don't want to. My prez votes have been Bush, Kerry, Obama, Obama, Clinton, and Biden. About the year I finished UT in '02 (holy shit, that was 20 years ago - fuck) is when I started realizing the GOP is full of fucking bullshit. Have not voted for any R candidate since 2000.

You’d think they would’ve lost more voters by now after the Iraq war lie in 2003, tanking the economy in 2008, 3 separate rounds of tax cuts for the rich, and giving covid a several month head start to spread in the US because they only cared about trying to preserve the stock market.

all of the above happened during GOP presidents / congresses, but damn I guess people only care about owning those libs while letting the rich get richer under GOP policies maybe they mistakenly believe that if the wealthy are happy, they will be too, but I’ve never seen trickle down policies work in my lifetime.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

The amounts being spent are obscene but the benefits of controlling Congress (and the WH and the SC) are immense.

[Longhorn_Fan68 33843]

3 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

You’d think they would’ve lost more voters by now after the Iraq war lie in 2003, tanking the economy in 2008, 3 separate rounds of tax cuts for the rich, and giving covid a several month head start to spread in the US because they only cared about trying to preserve the stock market.

all of the above happened during GOP presidents / congresses, but damn I guess people only care about owning those libs while letting the rich get richer under GOP policies maybe they mistakenly believe that if the wealthy are happy, they will be too, but I’ve never seen trickle down policies work in my lifetime.

trickle down will go down as one of the biggest failed policies of this country and likely the cause of its demise

[Pato del Muerto 52342]

How are you supposed to get rich if they take more of your money when you start making great money, which is just around the corner guaranteed?  Just have to move these 75 units!

[Voldemort86 2259]

15 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

How are you supposed to get rich if they take more of your money when you start making great money, which is just around the corner guaranteed?  Just have to move these 75 units!

If you grow up in this country, use our roads, schools, benefit from the system, and become successful then doesn’t it make sense that you should give back to the system that helped you rise up?
 

I don’t believe in taxing anyone to death, but the situations like warren buffets Secretary paying more in taxes than him never should happen.

[TexPx 2319]

trickle down will go down as one of the biggest failed policies of this country and likely the cause of its demise

Not only here but also in Iran:

“The White Revolution had been designed to preempt a Red Revolution. Instead, it paved the way for an Islamic Revolution."[63] The White Revolution's economic "trickle-down" strategy also did not work as intended. In theory, oil money funneled to the elite was supposed to be used to create jobs and factories, eventually distributing the money, but instead the wealth tended to get stuck at the top and concentrated in the hands of the very few.”

[Pig Bellmont 8692]

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

The amounts being spent are obscene but the benefits of controlling Congress (and the WH and the SC) are immense.

They should not be related. (Not that you’re arguing otherwise). Unfortunately because of SCOTUS, capping spending in politics requires a fucking constitutional amendment, so billionaires and corporations are guaranteed an outsized influence in our elections probably for forever 

[Js1 85112]

2022 Turnout Estimates - Echelon Insights

ECHELON INSIGHTS PREDICTS 2022 ELECTION TURNOUT OF 125,655,745, A NEW RECORD FOR A MIDTERM ELECTION.

That would be a lot.  Higher turnout is not always good for Dems (see: 2020 Trump surge) but it also would probably mean a lot of uncaptured voters in polls from the new young/female registrants

Texas projected at 8.759 million voters.   2018 had 8.371 million votes in the Senate race that year.  

2018 turnout was 113,412,989 for reference.

Edited October 17, 2022 by Js1

[Dr. Teeth 5832]

4 hours ago, Tuco said:

Put it on billboards. Dems get way too complacent when they think they’re going to win.

They are complacent regardless of expected outcome. They are terrible at everything other than Presidential elections. Which is why we are in this mess. Everyone said Dobbs was a game changer. It’s not. There is a reason Rs are focusing on crime and inflation. That’s what white women care about. Not an abortion they think they won’t have. They think rights will be fine. They don’t care about anyone else. 

Edited October 17, 2022 by Dr. Teeth

[MeerkatBong 115]

7 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Why are so many 45-65 year olds republicans?  I hate gen X.

My guess is because a) they are the ones with money, assets, net worth (e.g. things to protect), they have b) a less plastic brain about evolving cultural and social trends/norms, and c) are generally less aware of practical reality for the "thems" of today and how different it was for them at 21-34 than it is today for the same demo.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

38 minutes ago, Js1 said:

ECHELON INSIGHTS PREDICTS 2022 ELECTION TURNOUT OF 125,655,745,

I cant imagine it’ll be anything over 125,655,740. 

[Js1 85112]

That Selzer poll has the following:

IA01 50-41 R (R+3 seat)

IA02 48-46 D (R+4 seat)

IA03 49-48 D (R+3 seat)

IA04 62-33 R (R+16 seat)

Statewide GCB is R+6 - Trump won Iowa by 8 in 2020

Edited October 17, 2022 by Js1

[tx 3 putt 76402]

 

[Satchel 6908]

15 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

Again, why the hard on for the FBI when so many within the organization support MAGA?

[StassneyHorn 6540]

It usually takes 2-3 straight elections to be a permanent voter. That helps Dems with rising numbers. Republicans were flat so many cycles between 2000-2016.

I was just at my parents house as a 33 year old for 17 days. Challenged all the Fox News bullshit the mom and dad would say, laugh uncontrollably at the stupid shit they nodded their head to on Newsmax and other Fox channels.

My dad is a stable Republican but understands at the same time the bullshit Michael Berry and Fox News puts out, but unchecked  he will get drunk on it without someone like me checking him on it. He is convinced Lina Hidalgo is the worst, but we live in Victoria 120 miles away. Pivoted to how we love seeing Ukraine kick Russias ass and how they are paper tigers.

My  mom was never overly political until she got breast cancer and got way religious. I cannot stop her from voting for “good Catholics.” Made sure to remind her Paxton is a 6x felon. Her retort was it hasn’t been proven. I asked her what good Catholic has 6 felony indictments and her eyes watered. Saving the links to his extramarital affair this Thursday. 
 

my work exists to fuck up this AG race ha

[Voldemort86 2259]

11 hours ago, Js1 said:

2022 Turnout Estimates - Echelon Insights

ECHELON INSIGHTS PREDICTS 2022 ELECTION TURNOUT OF 125,655,745, A NEW RECORD FOR A MIDTERM ELECTION.

That would be a lot.  Higher turnout is not always good for Dems (see: 2020 Trump surge) but it also would probably mean a lot of uncaptured voters in polls from the new young/female registrants

Texas projected at 8.759 million voters.   2018 had 8.371 million votes in the Senate race that year.  

2018 turnout was 113,412,989 for reference.

Is there an explanation why turnout is projected to be so high?  I remember the news freaking out because 2018 turnout was off the charts. However, 2016, 2018, and 2020 turnout can be attributed to trump. There’s not as much direct Trump involvement in this election.

[Js1 85112]

1 hour ago, Voldemort86 said:

Is there an explanation why turnout is projected to be so high? 

Dobbs. People be motivated 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

I think Dobbs is a partial explanation.  D’s are going to survive the in-power midterms because of it.  But if it were only Dobbs, you’d see a lot more indicators of not just survival but a blue wave.
 

 I think we are in a cycle where politics is a daily thought. without a fractured us-v-them society, voting isn’t important.  Nothing is riding on it for the average person.  Now that we are at each other’s throats all the time, voting is do or die.  

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

8 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

It usually takes 2-3 straight elections to be a permanent voter. That helps Dems with rising numbers. Republicans were flat so many cycles between 2000-2016.

I was just at my parents house as a 33 year old for 17 days. Challenged all the Fox News bullshit the mom and dad would say, laugh uncontrollably at the stupid shit they nodded their head to on Newsmax and other Fox channels.

My dad is a stable Republican but understands at the same time the bullshit Michael Berry and Fox News puts out, but unchecked  he will get drunk on it without someone like me checking him on it. He is convinced Lina Hidalgo is the worst, but we live in Victoria 120 miles away. Pivoted to how we love seeing Ukraine kick Russias ass and how they are paper tigers.

My  mom was never overly political until she got breast cancer and got way religious. I cannot stop her from voting for “good Catholics.” Made sure to remind her Paxton is a 6x felon. Her retort was it hasn’t been proven. I asked her what good Catholic has 6 felony indictments and her eyes watered. Saving the links to his extramarital affair this Thursday. 
 

my work exists to fuck up this AG race ha

I don't know why people in Victoria know who Hidalgo is, much less have an opinion about her, but I guess Michael Berry must go on and on about her. A conservative friend of mine used to bring up topics that Berry would raise on his show. Just to get under my friend's skin, I would ask if Berry still stops by gay bars just to have a cold beer. My friend stopped discussing Berry.

 

[Beantown Express 2.0 6555]

4 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

I think Dobbs is a partial explanation.  D’s are going to survive the in-power midterms because of it.  But if it were only Dobbs, you’d see a lot more indicators of not just survival but a blue wave.
 

 I think we are in a cycle where politics is a daily thought. without a fractured us-v-them society, voting isn’t important.  Nothing is riding on it for the average person.  Now that we are at each other’s throats all the time, voting is do or die.  

Nothing is riding on it?   Based on these Abbott ads I keep seeing on my television if I don’t vote for him I should expect to be raped and murdered on a daily basis going forward because that is what the Democrats want.  

I joke but how many people will pull the R lever because they are fearful of crime yet have not been affected one bit by crime and many statistics show it has decreased yearly since the days of HW and Clinton.  

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

13 minutes ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

Nothing is riding on it?   Based on these Abbott ads I keep seeing on my television if I don’t vote for him I should expect to be raped and murdered on a daily basis going forward because that is what the Democrats want.  

I joke but how many people will pull the R lever because they are fearful of crime yet have not been affected one bit by crime and many statistics show it has decreased yearly since the days of HW and Clinton.  

Yeah, that’s what I was saying. It USED to be that the public could feel nothing was riding on it.  Now, if D’s are in power, brown people will turn your son into a commie trans. If R’s are in power, the Fourth Reich is here.  That feeling has filtered through to a bigger percentage of the population imo. 

[High Plains Drifter 10978]

16 hours ago, Dr. Teeth said:

They are complacent regardless of expected outcome. They are terrible at everything other than Presidential elections. Which is why we are in this mess. Everyone said Dobbs was a game changer. It’s not. There is a reason Rs are focusing on crime and inflation. That’s what white women care about. Not an abortion they think they won’t have. They think rights will be fine. They don’t care about anyone else. 

 

to your point:

NPR this morning, interviewing so called "swing" voters in Atlanta suburbs. One woman was "concerned" about abortion access, but also concerned about "the economy". She said she was more concerned about the economy because if she ever needed an abortion there would be somewhere she could go to get it.

rage

 

 

[Js1 85112]

7 minutes ago, High Plains Drifter said:

 

to your point:

NPR this morning, interviewing so called "swing" voters in Atlanta suburbs. One woman was "concerned" about abortion access, but also concerned about "the economy". She said she was more concerned about the economy because if she ever needed an abortion there would be somewhere she could go to get it.

rage

 

 

Same thing as that NYT piece.  "Democracy is important, but I had to pay over $3 for gas, so I have to vote Republican"

We are selfish, uneducated, ignorant people who don't deserve the prosperity we've been given, worked for and lucked into by being an ocean away from Europe during 2 world wars. 

Edited October 18, 2022 by Js1

[MeerkatBong 115]

13 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Same thing as that NYT piece.  "Democracy is important, but I had to pay over $3 for gas, so I have to vote Republican"

We are selfish, uneducated, ignorant people who don't deserve the prosperity we've been given, worked for and lucked into by being an ocean away from Europe during 2 world wars. 

Preach it brother-- been saying this for years.

[The Royal We 3065]

1 hour ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

Nothing is riding on it?   Based on these Abbott ads I keep seeing on my television if I don’t vote for him I should expect to be raped and murdered on a daily basis going forward because that is what the Democrats want.  

I joke but how many people will pull the R lever because they are fearful of crime yet have not been affected one bit by crime and many statistics show it has decreased yearly since the days of HW and Clinton.  

Gosh, things are so scary and dangerous in Texas.  The people in charge (for the last 27 years) are doing a fantastic job and I absolutely must continue to vote for them!

[Dr. Teeth 5832]

34 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Same thing as that NYT piece.  "Democracy is important, but I had to pay over $3 for gas, so I have to vote Republican"

We are selfish, uneducated, ignorant people who don't deserve the prosperity we've been given, worked for and lucked into by being an ocean away from Europe during 2 world wars. 

Exactly. No one cares about democracy. They want to have cheap money that fuels their 401k and home prices. Republicans have figured out that they can ruin the economy AND still be the party to fix the mess because they have the better messaging. They are inundating the airwaves with negative ads right with that message. Dems are just praying women come to the polls and win Twitter wars. And we wonder why democracy is dying. 

[gmr548 16517]

22 hours ago, Js1 said:

There was a lot of people (GOP) crowing about the GOP winning 18% of the black vote in this poll.  The subgroups are wonky in this poll -

GOP winning 18% of black vote (87-12 in 2020), women tied 44-44 (57-42 in 2020), 18-29 52-40 (60-36 in 2020), 30-44 50-41 (52-46 in 2020)

What I've noticed in polls is that the GOP seems to consistently perform best in the ~45-60 age bracket. Love to rag on boomers as the ones being sucked in by conservative propaganda, and that's partially true for sure (there are boomers in that bracket after all); many have experienced that with their own aging boomer parents. But the fact that support often sways back more toward even in 65+ tells you there's a lot of older half Gen X out there really driving that 40-55 surge. Which checks out, as research shows people don't necessarily get more conservative as they age, but rarely deviate from political views that shaped them when they came of age. That's the group that came of age in the Reagan-Bush era, the most broadly conservative in modern American politics.

[YGIFS 19449]

Yeah, as much as we stereotype the boomers as being frightened by FoxNews to vote against the Democrat-Dystopia vision for America...a huge chunk of them are more afraid of draconian cuts to Social Security, Medicare, and often as in the case of my mother after 70/75, begin to take on a "live and let live mentality" as they realize all that anger and envy won't buy you any extra time on the back-end (it may actually accelerate).  

But in looking at my enclave of Gen X, 45-60.  I absolutely see them skewing more for MAGA/GOP.  They're just a shitton quieter about it.  Probably because they know better, but don't give a shit about the rest of the country while they're raising older kids, growing businesses, paying lotta taxes, etc.  They're not so much on the Trump train though I guess, they just mostly don't like the Democratic Party.  

I used to be like that.  Never a big Republican.  On major election cycles, I'd probably skew 50% Libertarian, 30% Republican, 20% Democrat.  Never voted straight ticket in my life.  Have voted in both party's primaries, donated to candidates of all three parties, bundled for two of them, and only been a registered member of one-L.  i dabbled in social conservatism in college/grad school but it didn't take.  I haven't given a fuck about people's private lives or their bodies in almost 25 years.  I'll probably be set in that way until my children are having children of their own.  Most of my other political beliefs regarding domestic and foreign policy continue to change from year to year and  situation to situation.  It's not a team sport for me like it is for most in Texas.  

tl;dr---the shocking thing to me is no longer how Trump pulled this off.  I've seen behind the curtain, this isn't a surprise anymore.  These people were all around me for decades.  The shocking thing is two years later, how many candidates are still running on Trump to ensure their piece of the political pie.  And one day I'll accept that, and then the shock will be why the worship hasn't abated since he died.  And then the next surprise, and the one after that.  Until America is no more.

[Voldemort86 2259]

We’re a dumb, lazy, “I want it now and I want it cheap” country.

if it’s something people desire, they don’t mind paying a hefty price for something like a nice BMW or rolls Royce. If it’s some thing people must have or must pay for, they hate paying a high price for it. Factors outside the democrats control or even their own doing are making people pay exorbitant prices for shelter ( due to a serious lack of housing inventory to go around nationwide), gas ( greedy oil cartel and greedy US companies), and food ( probably being affected most by Russia / Ukraine war and extreme drought in unfortunate areas of US).

All of these things would be going poorly if Trump was in office, but if Trump was in office right now people would be figuring out a way to blame Obama for the lack of housing inventory, the democrats for being “hostile” to the oil and gas industry, and probably Obama again for whatever is going wrong in their mainly simple and uninteresting lives.

[WBT 20422]

3 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Yeah, that’s what I was saying. It USED to be that the public could feel nothing was riding on it.  Now, if D’s are in power, brown people will turn your son into a commie trans. If R’s are in power, the Fourth Reich is here.  That feeling has filtered through to a bigger percentage of the population imo. 

Bigger, yes.  There is still a huge proportion that is not all that engaged in politics though.

[Gil Bang 25898]

 

[TexPx 2319]

Nothing is riding on it?   Based on these Abbott ads I keep seeing on my television if I don’t vote for him I should expect to be raped and murdered on a daily basis going forward because that is what the Democrats want.  
I joke but how many people will pull the R lever because they are fearful of crime yet have not been affected one bit by crime and many statistics show it has decreased yearly since the days of HW and Clinton.  

Interesting John Oliver segment on crime reporting.

[Longhorn_Fan68 33843]

1 hour ago, Gil Bang said:

 

classic pull the ladder up once you're at the top

[Dr. Teeth 5832]

4 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

classic pull the ladder up once you're at the top

Unfortunately that’s also helping Rs in Texas with Hispanics. 

[GenXer 2778]

On 10/17/2022 at 9:07 AM, Voldemort86 said:

Why are so many 45-65 year olds republicans?  I hate gen X.

What’d I ever do to you?

Lumping everyone from 45-65 together is too broad. GenX is 42-57 years old now. I like to think the nihilistic philosophy of the early 90’s Gen X hasn’t bought into republican bullshit over the years, but I suspect there’s a lot that are into the conspiracy theory idiocy.

[GenXer 2778]

3 hours ago, gmr548 said:

What I've noticed in polls is that the GOP seems to consistently perform best in the ~45-60 age bracket. Love to rag on boomers as the ones being sucked in by conservative propaganda, and that's partially true for sure (there are boomers in that bracket after all); many have experienced that with their own aging boomer parents. But the fact that support often sways back more toward even in 65+ tells you there's a lot of older half Gen X out there really driving that 40-55 surge. Which checks out, as research shows people don't necessarily get more conservative as they age, but rarely deviate from political views that shaped them when they came of age. That's the group that came of age in the Reagan-Bush era, the most broadly conservative in modern American politics.

This is interesting and makes sense. I grew up republican in Oklahoma (go figure). I shifted hard left when I saw Hillary make the first push in the 90’s to make healthcare affordable and saw the opposite from the republicans. That has driven my voting over the past 25 years.

[SydneyCarton 47884]

I'll buck that trend. I turn 43 in the next few months, and I was raised roundly conservative, in Texas, and generally voted as a Republican party member till 2016. My shift started after Bush, but all the violent hateful rhetoric for Obama ratcheted up to 12, and it's all anyone who ever mostly ignored politics heard. And it struck me as "seriously, someone explain the hatred of this guy to me" itch in my head. Voted for Obama the second time. Then I saw everything in 2016 and became a registered Democrat. This all happened in my 30's.  Change is possible, even for those that didn't pay too much attention to this shit previously.

Hell, I used to be part of the "The Cloakroom is a cesspool" crowd here on Surly. 

Edited October 18, 2022 by SydneyCarton

[sidis 9754]

1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

and voted Republican till 2016.

 

Voted for Obama the second time.

[tx 3 putt 76402]

1 hour ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

classic pull the ladder up once you're at the top

 

that's the boomer generation motto !

[SydneyCarton 47884]

6 minutes ago, sidis said:

Please read that part as "voted for the republican party generally." I'll edit and clarfiy
 

[Snake Diggity 4614]

I am 42 and consider myself too late for Gen X but too early to be a Millenial.  I have traits of both stereotypes.

I was raised ultra-conservative south Texas catholic.  Both my parents are proud to be single issue pro-life voters.  I consider myself very lucky they don’t watch too much Fox news and aren’t big time Trumpers, although I’m sure they voted for him twice.

I actively avoided politics until my late 20s.  If I had voted, I would’ve gone straight ticket GOP.  Over my late 20s and early 30s, I gained enough life experience and did enough reading and critical thinking to realize a whole lot of the political views I’d been fed during my youth were bullshit.  The rise of Trumpism was the final straw for me; I reluctantly voted for Evan McMullin for president in 2016 and proudly voted Biden in 2020.  I haven’t made my final decisions yet but I am pretty sure I will vote 90%+ Democrat this year.  I will never vote for anyone who doesn’t reject Trump and the big lie.  So all that is to say I wouldn’t say I’ve done a complete 180 but I vote wildly different than I would have as a younger man.  

[Biff Tannen 45499]

8 hours ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

I joke but how many people will pull the R lever because they are fearful of crime yet have not been affected one bit by crime and many statistics show it has decreased yearly since the days of HW and Clinton.  

I have two in my immediate family at least.

[Biff Tannen 45499]

35 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

I am 42 and consider myself too late for Gen X but too early to be a Millenial.  I have traits of both stereotypes.

Welcome to the Oregon Trail Generation pal!

[gmr548 16517]

I'll buck that trend. I turn 43 in the next few months, and I was raised roundly conservative, in Texas, and generally voted as a Republican party member till 2016. My shift started after Bush, but all the violent hateful rhetoric for Obama ratcheted up to 12, and it's all anyone who ever mostly ignored politics heard. And it struck me as "seriously, someone explain the hatred of this guy to me" itch in my head. Voted for Obama the second time. Then I saw everything in 2016 and became a registered Democrat. This all happened in my 30's.  Change is possible, even for those that didn't pay too much attention to this shit previously.

Hell, I used to be part of the "The Cloakroom is a cesspool" crowd here on Surly. 

I am 42 and consider myself too late for Gen X but too early to be a Millenial.  I have traits of both stereotypes.
I was raised ultra-conservative south Texas catholic.  Both my parents are proud to be single issue pro-life voters.  I consider myself very lucky they don’t watch too much Fox news and aren’t big time Trumpers, although I’m sure they voted for him twice.
I actively avoided politics until my late 20s.  If I had voted, I would’ve gone straight ticket GOP.  Over my late 20s and early 30s, I gained enough life experience and did enough reading and critical thinking to realize a whole lot of the political views I’d been fed during my youth were bullshit.  The rise of Trumpism was the final straw for me; I reluctantly voted for Evan McMullin for president in 2016 and proudly voted Biden in 2020.  I haven’t made my final decisions yet but I am pretty sure I will vote 90%+ Democrat this year.  I will never vote for anyone who doesn’t reject Trump and the big lie.  So all that is to say I wouldn’t say I’ve done a complete 180 but I vote wildly different than I would have as a younger man.  

I probably should have caveated that statement with a “pre-Trump.” Obviously there’s a non trivial portion of the electorate that has flipped parties as Trump and Trumpism have reshaped American politics.