2022 House elections

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

7 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

Seems very possible, if not likely, that Dems gain in the Senate while they lose control of the House.  That would suck immensely but right now I'd take that.

Winning (or tying) the Senate is a huge win for the Dems. It keeps Biden nominating/confirming judges and it ends any silly nonsense about impeaching Biden.

I wonder if the Jan 6 committee can effectively be transferred to the Senate?

[Biff Tannen 45499]

7 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I wonder if the Jan 6 committee can effectively be transferred to the Senate?

Speaking of, where the fuck have they been?  Are they waiting until next week for the final hearings?

 

[YGIFS 19449]

More blue states than red have governorships and other statewide elected offices up for votes this year.  So even if they don't give a shit about the House, shouldn't they be out voting anyway?  

I say this as a guy who wants Trump and Dan Patrick and Ted Cruz to die in a murder-suicide-satanic threesome........but y'all's party could fuck up a cup of coffee.  If you're not taking two people with you to go vote, don't even fucking bother to vote yourself.  You're just giving children false hope.  Just days into early voting, and there's overwhelming evidence of voter intimidation, plans to quash vote counts in blue areas, and GOP lawyers in the queue to contest every fucking ballot.  And the Democrats answer, "Well abortion is gonna stay legal here, so I guess I'll just go yell at this photo of Kevin McCarthy in that field over there..."  ???  Send some kinda signal.  I don't know what it is, but whatever the fuck it is you guys talk about at cocktail parties...go fucking do that.  Make some kinda stand.  Sure Abbott probably wins, maybe the House goes Red, Trump declares for office in January, I dunno.  But make a fucking stand.  Cause a scene.  Disrupt something.  Win some token, obscure race in the South.  Take a shit in Lindsey Graham's sunroof.  

"Abortion is already legal in my state and thanks to me because I'm a super-duper progressive" is the same shit as "Well Democracy is important, but groceries cost 20% more these days...so I should vote for the divisive, vitriolic Republican"      We've been told every mid-term is the most important mid-term of our lives but that was just to raise money.  This one actually isn't a huge deal for most people and I like federal gridlock.  But this sets up a very dark 2024 where the actual withering away of the Republic starts.  It's not as bad right as Brisket and y'all paint.  And January 2023-January 2025 will be a lot of yelling at clouds (and photos of McCarthy).  But y'all don't get your shit together, everything beyond January 2025 will be far, far worse than your worst predictions.  
 

And I told you about Ken Paxton, but nobody believed me.

[Js1 85110]

5 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

More blue states than red have governorships and other statewide elected offices up for votes this year.  So even if they don't give a shit about the House, shouldn't they be out voting anyway?  

It's not that they don't give a shit about the House, it's that they're not motivated because their rights aren't at stake.  They also aren't scared of a federal ban, because Biden won't sign it.  Sure they'll show up in 2024 because it will matter then.  And states like Massachusetts and California and Oregon aren't really worried about a GOP governor, because they have ridiculously blue legislatures that keep the crazy shit from passing. 

It's why Dems suck at midterms when they're in power - they don't feel the ramifications of losing that power until it's gone.  Meanwhile, even when they have power and have held it for 20 years in the state, the GOP acts like they're about to lose it. 

[YGIFS 19449]

I get it.  And this doesn't make for fun messaging, and probably got workshopped outta the game because it wouldn't raise money.  

But y'all get your shit together and hold 1 or both chambers of Congress and some Mansions in 2022.  It won't matter what the fuck you do in 2024 because anything less than a 10% margin of victory will get tossed the fuck out.  You can rock the vote, get out the vote, youth outreach, urban turnout, empowered women in '24, rainbow power, blacks for biden, demsXlatinX, whatever the fuck y'all wanna do.  You lose traction in the next two weeks, nothing you do in 2024 will matter one fucking iota.

Don't mean to sound so grim, but they tell us with straight faces in dark rooms when no red-meat voters or cameras are around...the manipulation they're willing to do in 2024 will make 2020 look like a prom queen vote.  I think y'all have the numbers and the conviction, but you don't have the horses for what comes next.  Not even close.  They say it's a red state v. blue state ecosystem out there.  But we all know it's an urban/suburban v. exurb/rural battle.  But we're wrong.  this all sets up a migration of people from urban areas to overall blue states.  The Civil War that's coming won't be a hostile one, it'll be a war of resettlement and attrition.  We're actually to have literal blue and red states to an overwhelming degree.  /rantholyshitwheresthetylenol

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

The Texas GOP was smart to only make 3 Texas districts competitive, out of 38. All 3 are Valley/South Texas districts where the GOP thinks they can work to steal 2-3 more seats due to shifting Hispanic voting.

It's crazy that effectively 92% of Texans already have their House rep decided before 1 vote was cast.

As an example, Lizzie Fletcher could barely win the 7th before, and now she's a 20 point favorite with the new maps.  Gerrymandering ruins democracy in both directions. In CA, Democrats get 80% of the seats, and the percentages are close in the Texas in the opposite direction.

[Js1 85110]

1 minute ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

The Texas GOP was smart to only make 3 Texas districts competitive, out of 38. All 3 are Valley/South Texas districts where the GOP thinks they can work to steal 2-3 more seats due to shifting Hispanic voting.

It's crazy that effectively 92% of Texans already have their House rep decided before 1 vote was cast.

As an example, Lizzie Fletcher could barely win the 7th before, and now she's a 20 point favorite with the new maps.  Gerrymandering ruins democracy in both directions. In CA, Democrats get 80% of the seats, and the percentages are close in the Texas in the opposite direction.

The Texas GOP actually focused on protecting incumbents. They could have made it a lot fucking worse. 

[Willfully Horn 7916]

Yeah, wring thread.

Edited October 30, 2022 by Willfully Horn

[Longhorn_Fan68 33843]

thread wrang. or is it wrung?

[TheStoicPaisano 9904]

Quote

August Pfluger, R-Texas

Jodey Arrington, R-Texas

Roger Williams, R-Texas

Michael Burgess,  R-Texas

John Carter,  R-Texas

The above are running unopposed…how many taxpayers do they rep? Full disclosure, I’m in a district with a D running unopposed.

[Gengs1 2583]

[Left Coast 863]

On 10/28/2022 at 8:21 AM, Nice Guy Eddie said:

The Texas GOP was smart to only make 3 Texas districts competitive, out of 38. All 3 are Valley/South Texas districts where the GOP thinks they can work to steal 2-3 more seats due to shifting Hispanic voting.

It's crazy that effectively 92% of Texans already have their House rep decided before 1 vote was cast.

As an example, Lizzie Fletcher could barely win the 7th before, and now she's a 20 point favorite with the new maps.  Gerrymandering ruins democracy in both directions. In CA, Democrats get 80% of the seats, and the percentages are close in the Texas in the opposite direction.

Except by law in California the districts are drawn by a non-partisan committee instead of the legislature. So no, that’s a very bad example.

https://www.wedrawthelinesca.org

[Pescado_Rojo 19331]

On 10/31/2022 at 2:20 PM, TheStoicPaisano said:

The above are running unopposed…how many taxpayers do they rep? Full disclosure, I’m in a district with a D running unopposed.

I live in TX31 (John Carter's district) He was maybe the biggest beneficiary of redistricting of all Republicans. Tx31 went from R+5 and falling to R+16 

[Voldemort86 2259]

A good barometer to interpret election night results.  I don’t think Kuster or Wexton will lose. 

[Js1 85110]

If we aren’t antsy enough over Texas and Astros tonight, Queen Ann of the Selzer Cornfields will be releasing their final 2022 poll tonight as well. Likely Iowa-focused (GCB, House races, Senate) but this will really tell us the vibes. Good or bad, what Selzer says is what I expect Tuesday to be like 

Last time, they had Dems +4, up in 2/4 Iowa House districts and Grassley only up 5 or so

Edited November 5, 2022 by Js1

[Voldemort86 2259]

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/final-ratings-for-the-2022-election/
 

final update from Sabato. I disagree with them on the GOP margin of victory. I think the GOP wins 19 seats.

[Texas73 420]

Wrong thread

Edited November 7, 2022 by Texas73