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2022 House elections

Gil Bang

By Gil Bang
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Tuco

Tuco 5076

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45 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Bahahaha, no.  Ballot measures in Texas have to clear 2/3rds of the both chambers of Abbott and Patrick's reichstag before it ends up on the ballot for the masses to vote for.

Aka, never.  

So you only get ballot initiatives on issues that would otherwise pass?  Fucking brilliant.  

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13414

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The continued plummeting of gas prices (Texas avg down to $3.50) is hurting the GOP messaging. Sure they can point that gas is higher now than a year ago and talk about inflation but every driver knows it's getting better.  And going in the right direction is critical when people vote.

If gas prices get down to $3 by election day, I'm not even sure inflation will be a current worry of people. 

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Js1

Js1 85110

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Imma keep harping on this - Betting on a GOP House wave in the midterms? Look at this data first. (nbcnews.com)

Educated voters turn out in midterms - consistently.

29% of GOP voters have a bachelor's degree or higher.  41% of the Dem base does. 

In 2016, high schoool/GED turnout was 47.4% (38.8% in 2018 midterms); some college was 60.5% (52.2% in 2018 midterms) and bachelor's degree or more was 71% (63.9% in 2018 midterms). 

Quote

The exact differences between those groups may vary from year to year, but the pattern is consistent. Higher education attainment tends to equal higher rates of voting. So when a party’s percentage of college grads falls, that may make it harder to get the desired voter turnout numbers.

But also important is the drop off from presidential to midterm elections. There is always a decline in turnout between presidential and midterm years, but it tends to be lower among those with a bachelor’s degree. Comparing 2018 to 2016, the “voted” number dropped 7.1 points among those with college degrees, but it dropped 8.3% among those with some college or an associated degree and it dropped 8.6% among those with just a high school diploma.

 

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/16/democrats-midterms-hopes-washington-00052049
 

more evidence that we a aren’t looking at a GOP red wave. Washington state gave very bad signs about how unenthused the democrats base was in 2010 and 2014.

in 2010 primary : democrats received 48.5% of the statewide vote.

in 2014 primary : democrats received about the same.

In 2022 primary : democrats received 55.4% of the statewide vote.

these are all midterm election years. As we all know 2010 and 2014 were abysmal years for the dems and we really don’t want to see something similar to that this fall. This is another positive sign that a democrat wipeout isn’t on the way. We might be currently in an environment that more closely resembles 2020.

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Js1

Js1 85110

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2 minutes ago, WBT said:

Liz knew the consequences but cared more about fucking over Trump.  Good for her.

A politician torpedoed their career for the right thing. Refreshing. Like all those Democrats who knew they’d be toast voting for the ACA but it was the right move

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

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6 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Meh, retiring doesn’t count. Have the balls to take your loss like a man for having principles 

Lol Cheney voted for Trump twice, went along the entire time until she nearly got killed.  
 

At least Flake went out with a “fuck this Trump guy” Senate speech and then handed his seat to the democrats. 

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13414

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Wouldn’t shock me to see her run against trump in ‘24 just to continually remind republicans what trump has said and done.

on the AK front, are they really crazy enough to put Palin back into office after she quit on them. Remember her press conference announcing her resignation? She actually claimed that remaining in office would be the quitter’s route and quitting was not. Of course now that we see the trumps and Herschels, boebert, mtg in the gop, maybe palin is middle of the road.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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10 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

10 Republicans voted to impeach in the House and 2 made it out of their primary, the others were primaried or just quit. 
 

The GOP is going to likely win the House and Senate and they’re going to take their orders from MAL. 

Senate?  Not likely at all. 

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Fastbreak

Fastbreak 3959

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I don’t care about her and think her father is second to Kissinger in most evil politicos alive.  But it is depressing that the reason she is out is because she went after Trump. 
 

She didn’t go after Trump. She tried to help expose the truth.

Your top 2 is like having Lebron and Kareem and forgetting Jordan. Trump is the political evil GOAT. The county is broken now and will never recover.
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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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2 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I am not a nerd on forecasting and only check in on the Politico forecast every now and then that has the Senate leaning R. Hoping that’s a very unlikely lean.

 

They must have not updated their forecast in awhile. Betting markets and 538 give the dems a 60% chance of keeping the senate.

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Guest

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So if you want to put lipstick on a pig -- Cheney had about 1/3 of the vote in the state that went hardest for Trump in 2020. 

That's 1/3 of the Republican voters going against Trump. Of course, who knows how many of those were Dems who voted in the Rep primary.

But you got to figure that means somewhere between 33-45% of Republican voters alone don't want Trump, in addition to anyone voting Dem. 

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MC Fresh Breath

MC Fresh Breath 4074

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3 hours ago, Fastbreak said:


She didn’t go after Trump. She tried to help expose the truth.

Your top 2 is like having Lebron and Kareem and forgetting Jordan. Trump is the political evil GOAT. The county is broken now and will never recover.

The breaking of the country started before him, imo.  He is a POS and the cult is indeed a pox from which we might not recover.  But that cult didn’t just sprout up overnight. They have been with us for some time, waiting for the monster who encouraged them to take their masks off.  I stand by my rankings.

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MC Fresh Breath

MC Fresh Breath 4074

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2022 ELECTIONS
Liz Cheney Was Defeated By the Extremist Movement She Helped to Empower
If not for Donald Trump’s attempt to steal the election, she would still be backing him.

In the run-up to the 2016 election, Liz Cheney issued a dire warning. The future of American democracy, and the nation’s place as a symbol of freedom to the world, was on the ballot. If voters chose poorly, she told Rush Limbaugh, the next president “would be the most corrupt individual ever to sit in the Oval Office.” 

She was referring, of course, to Hillary Clinton. 

At the time Cheney, the daughter of the former vice president, was a candidate for Congress with an incredibly bright future. Her campaign was such a formality that it was (I think) the only article in our post-election issue we didn’t have to rewrite from scratch; a pig might fly or get elected president, but no Cheney was going to lose in Wyoming. The reason for her rising star was straightforward: She was a Bush administration veteran who was willing to go to the mat for President Donald Trump, no matter what the naysayers said. They both had a use for each other. By the start of her second term, she was chair of the House Republican Conference. When Trump ran for re-election she offered her endorsement.

But on Tuesday, Cheney’s career in Congress came to an abrupt end, when she lost her Republican primary to conservative challenger Harriet Hageman. The election itself was mostly a formality. After voting to impeach President Donald Trump for his role in the January 6 insurrection and vowing to push back against his “crusade to undermine our democracy,” Cheney was stripped last year of her House leadership position. The Wyoming GOP censured her, and later voted to no longer recognize her as a Republican. Although her father once represented the state in Congress and remains its most famous political export, Republicans in the state had swung hard to the right in the Trump years. On January 6, while Cheney and her colleagues were besieged inside the Capitol, the state GOP chair—whose name was included on a leaked list of Oathkeepers members—was protesting outside.

This is not the first time that Cheney has found herself in the political wilds. When George W. Bush and Dick Cheney left office in 2009, Republicans weren’t clamoring for a return to the glory days. Neither of them have addressed a Republican National Convention since they left office. As the country tried to put the Bush years in its past, Liz Cheney emerged as a mouthpiece for an administration and a political movement in exile. 

But she understood that by couching this Bush-era Lost Cause rhetoric in the anti-Obama language of the conservative base, she could find not just an audience, but a fresh start. She became a regular on Fox News and talk radio in these years, serving as a hype woman for her father’s career, and tearing into the Obama administration with such fervor that some conservatives floated her for president. 

Was she a birther? Not personally, but she indulged the racist lie with the same cowardly coddling that everyone else in the party did. “One of the reasons you see people so concerned about this, I think this issue is, people are uncomfortable with having for the first time ever, I think, a president who seems so reluctant to defend the nation overseas,” she said.

The rest of the administration didn’t get off easy either. As I wrote in a piece for the magazine:

Quote

With [Bill] Kristol, a former McCain staffer, and the sister of a man who was killed on 9/11, Cheney formed a dark-money outfit called Keep America Safe, which sought to paint Obama as weak on security. One of the group’s first ads bashed Attorney General Eric Holder for hiring attorneys who had once defended Guantanamo detainees. The spot referred to the lawyers as the “Al Qaeda 7” and asked, “Whose values do they share?” as b-roll of someone who looked like Osama bin Laden played in the background. It was like 2004 all over again.

The role she had then and the role she has now are in many respects the same one, applied to radically different circumstances—she is defending her movement against the pretenders who would sully its work. That she was wrong about Obama then and right about Trump now is obvious, but it was the willingness to play in the mud that made her a rising star and a member of Congress in the first place, just as it was the breakdown of public trust and civic guardrails during the Bush era that made possible Trump’s MAGA ascent. By the time she decided that orange man, in fact, bad, the damage had long since been done. She is left to critique the ruling party in exile; the sort of person who in a different context people like the Cheneys might think to covertly fund and equip.

None of this is to erase the work she’s done as a dogged and justifiably incensed leader on the January 6 Committee. She stands almost alone in her caucus, in her decision to not just quietly retire, or gripe anonymously to the press, but to actually fight back and wield the power she has against the threat she’s so clearly recognized. She’ll be fine, of course, both professionally and financially, but if the stand she took cost nothing, well, a lot more people would have taken it. But perhaps her fate might also be a lesson to the aspiring public servants out there—that the movement you cynically stoke might some day come for you, too.

 

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2022/08/liz-cheney-defeated-by-harriet-hagerman-wyoming-primary-donald-trump/

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 47884

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2 minutes ago, MC Fresh Breath said:

On a more macro level, it was pointed out in a reddit comment that 8 of the 10 R's who voted to impeach Trump are out of office.  4 retiring, 4 lost. 

It's certainly telling. Personally, this is either good news in regards to the right lurching further away from mainstream and ultimately being rejected, or we were already fucked regardless. 

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C-Man

C-Man 27058

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7 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I am not a nerd on forecasting and only check in on the Politico forecast every now and then that has the Senate leaning R. Hoping that’s a very unlikely lean.

 

 

5 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

They must have not updated their forecast in awhile. Betting markets and 538 give the dems a 60% chance of keeping the senate.

The last number I saw was that somebody forecast a 62% chance of Dems keeping the Senate

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Js1

Js1 85110

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5 minutes ago, MC Fresh Breath said:

On a more macro level, it was pointed out in a reddit comment that 8 of the 10 R's who voted to impeach Trump are out of office.  4 retiring, 4 lost. 

4 lost
4 retired
1 is in a safe district and may survive
1 is in a toss-up district and may not survive

Dan Newhouse might be the only impeachment R House member who lives past 2022.  

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Beantown Express 2.0

Beantown Express 2.0 6555

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1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

It's certainly telling. Personally, this is either good news in regards to the right lurching further away from mainstream and ultimately being rejected, or we were already fucked regardless. 

Sadly, I think it just shows that Trump still controls the base and this is why all of the R’s will never do anything against him for fear of Trump taking their voters away and knocking them out of their positions in the House or the Senate.  

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Js1

Js1 85110

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YouGov dropped a D+6 poll, same as last week (44-38 to 45-39)
Trashfalger dropped an R+5 poll, which is actually 3 points of movement towards the Dems (R 48-40 to R 47-42)
Morning Consult D+4, which is 3 points towards the Dems since last week (46-42) 

YouGov has Biden's approval at 44/51.  That would be FANTASTIC.

Edited by Js1
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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 47884

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2 minutes ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

Sadly, I think it just shows that Trump still controls the base and this is why all of the R’s will never do anything against him for fear of Trump taking their voters away and knocking them out of their positions in the House or the Senate.  

Ha. Your thoughts aren't mutually exclusive to my own, obviously. I'm thinking of "fucked" in the more macro sense, like "will I be able to flee to another country" or "what can I do to make sure my son doesn't grow up a fascist even we are trapped in a fascist state while he is raised."

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Beantown Express 2.0

Beantown Express 2.0 6555

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2 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Ha. Your thoughts aren't mutually exclusive to my own, obviously. I'm thinking of "fucked" in the more macro sense, like "will I be able to flee to another country" or "what can I do to make sure my son doesn't grow up a fascist even we are trapped in a fascist state while he is raised."

Just tell your son to “goose step” along with everyone else and he will be fine.  I kid. 

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Js1

Js1 85110

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

Sadly, I think it just shows that Trump still controls the base and this is why all of the R’s will never do anything against him for fear of Trump taking their voters away and knocking them out of their positions in the House or the Senate.  

Yep, the base demands it.  If Trump goes down, they all go down together, grasping to the be the last one hanging onto his stupidly extra long tie.  That's what a cult is. 

They've turned over their entire career, morality, ethos, principles and thoughts to Donald Trump.  

Going Down With The Ship GIFs - Get the best GIF on GIPHY

Edited by Js1
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