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2022 House elections

Gil Bang

By Gil Bang
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Ranked choice needs to be a thing everywhere

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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53 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

how can it not be? it's basically 'vote for your life' time (and yes I know it always has been) and a lot of people who didn't previously are now realizing that. Also young people are fucking pissed.

I understand that, but some of the so-called experts have stated that they expect the dem momentum to fizzle out before November. I’m just looking for true data points to refute that.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-power-rankings-gop-house-majority-shrinks-democrats-score-key-victories
 

Fox news is a joke, but their polling and election forecasting is surprisingly accurate and a good source of information. They have info on several house races shifting in the dems favor which I haven’t seen elsewhere. Their senate and governor forecasts seem a bit too optimistic for the GOP. 
 

id say Pennsylvania should be lean dem, New Hampshire lean dem, Georgia and Arizona tilt dem, Nevada pure tossup

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chainsaw

chainsaw 9838

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3 minutes ago, Gengs1 said:
 

The 2010 red wave tea party had +6 going in at this same point, and we're only at +0.2 right now. If Joe Biden keeps racking up Ws and the economy improves the only House gains the Rs make will have been due to gerrymandering

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Js1

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4 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

The 2010 red wave tea party had +6 going in at this same point, and we're only at +0.2 right now. If Joe Biden keeps racking up Ws and the economy improves the only House gains the Rs make will have been due to gerrymandering

2014 was the only bad polling miss.  2010, 2018 were very accurate. 

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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Can we start cancelling plans for the red wave?  I guess the more rational part of me should say we still have 2 more months of economic reports to get through and there’s rumors of OPEC cutting production which might make gas prices go back up. We need to get to fall blend asap.

gas prices could still play a big role in the election.

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Js1

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3 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

Say it with me, BLUE. WAVE

Barring no big surprises, it’ll be neutral to slightly blue. May not be enough to save the House, but the GOP might have a tiny single digit majority and full chaos. 

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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42 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Barring no big surprises, it’ll be neutral to slightly blue. May not be enough to save the House, but the GOP might have a tiny single digit majority and full chaos. 

I posted my disappointment about it in the primary thread, but the Florida / Desantis Gerrymander might be the difference in the house majority if the environment keeps getting bluer. The New York court really hurt, we needed the seats in New York to offset what the GOP did elsewhere.

I wish the dems would kill all of their “bipartisan commissions” in blue states because it’s just helping republicans at this point. We need to go for the jugular in California, New York, and Virginia. Give these guys nothing, because they’re clearly drawing out all the dems they can as fast as they can.

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Js1

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Fresh off a nice win in NY-19 and a huge overperformance in NY-23:

Yahoo/YouGov - D+6 (45-39)
Economist/YouGov - D+5 (44-39)
Politico/Morning Consult - D+5 (47-42)

Wasserman - Dems retaining control of the House not out of the question
Cook Political - downgraded forecast for Republicans
538 - yeah, it's very possible
Economist (G. Elliot Morris) - our new model has Dems winning 51.2% of the two party vote, enough to barely hold the House

Yes, Special Elections Really Are Signaling A Better-Than-Expected Midterm For Democrats | FiveThirtyEight

 

DARK BRANDON RISES

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chainsaw

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3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Fresh off a nice win in NY-19 and a huge overperformance in NY-23:

Yahoo/YouGov - D+6 (45-39)
Economist/YouGov - D+5 (44-39)
Politico/Morning Consult - D+5 (47-42)

Wasserman - Dems retaining control of the House not out of the question
Cook Political - downgraded forecast for Republicans
538 - yeah, it's very possible
Economist (G. Elliot Morris) - our new model has Dems winning 51.2% of the two party vote, enough to barely hold the House

Yes, Special Elections Really Are Signaling A Better-Than-Expected Midterm For Democrats | FiveThirtyEight

 

DARK BRANDON RISES

play to the whistle. don't let up. don't get complacent. you can't ever rule out DNC incompetence.

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Js1

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2 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

play to the whistle. don't let up. don't get complacent. you can't ever rule out DNC incompetence.

Laziest take ever.

I agree - don't get complacent, don't let up.  Leave the DNC out of this - the DCCC is doing heavy lifting and the DSCC did some phenomenal recruiting (Barnes, Fetterman, Beasley).  

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Fresh off a nice win in NY-19 and a huge overperformance in NY-23:

Yahoo/YouGov - D+6 (45-39)
Economist/YouGov - D+5 (44-39)
Politico/Morning Consult - D+5 (47-42)

Wasserman - Dems retaining control of the House not out of the question
Cook Political - downgraded forecast for Republicans
538 - yeah, it's very possible
Economist (G. Elliot Morris) - our new model has Dems winning 51.2% of the two party vote, enough to barely hold the House

Yes, Special Elections Really Are Signaling A Better-Than-Expected Midterm For Democrats | FiveThirtyEight

 

DARK BRANDON RISES

I think Wasserman knows where things are trending. He’s just hedging hard because of history. Some republicans keep assuming that things will get better after Labor Day when people start “paying attention”.

we’ll see about that.

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chainsaw

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1 hour ago, Voldemort86 said:

I think Wasserman knows where things are trending. He’s just hedging hard because of history. Some republicans keep assuming that things will get better after Labor Day when people start “paying attention”.

we’ll see about that.

I hope you're right but there's still a lot of time between now and November.

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GopherRock

GopherRock 1765

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, chainsaw said:

play to the whistle. don't let up. don't get complacent. you can't ever rule out DNC incompetence.

I've been a fan of Gopher football long enough to know to keep playing and never assume anything is over until the clock shows 0:00.

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gmr548

gmr548 16517

Posted
Posted
Fresh off a nice win in NY-19 and a huge overperformance in NY-23:
Yahoo/YouGov - D+6 (45-39)
Economist/YouGov - D+5 (44-39)
Politico/Morning Consult - D+5 (47-42)
Wasserman - Dems retaining control of the House not out of the question
Cook Political - downgraded forecast for Republicans
538 - yeah, it's very possible
Economist (G. Elliot Morris) - our new model has Dems winning 51.2% of the two party vote, enough to barely hold the House
Yes, Special Elections Really Are Signaling A Better-Than-Expected Midterm For Democrats | FiveThirtyEight
 
DARK BRANDON RISES

D +5-6 in the popular vote would hold the house. Probably gain a few seats.

Nowhere near enough to feel confident of that, but that it’s even on the table is pretty wild. Better now and November is an eternity in American politics though. One bad cycle of economic data and it could snap right back.
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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6540

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Those seats with racial gerrymanders in Alabama and Louisiana are playing big rn. Also the total collapse of a spine in court enforcement with regards to Ohio. Can’t remember where Texas landed with theirs referencing the completion must be done in a regular session, and it saying nothing about a special session.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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2 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

Those seats with racial gerrymanders in Alabama and Louisiana are playing big rn. Also the total collapse of a spine in court enforcement with regards to Ohio. Can’t remember where Texas landed with theirs referencing the completion must be done in a regular session, and it saying nothing about a special session.

We actually got a decently fair map in Texas due to bad natural geography for the GOP. We’ve gotten shafted in so many states it’s not even funny tho. We need to abolish the “bipartisan” redistricting commissions in blue states if GOP isn’t setting up any in red states. The bipartisan commissions are just benefiting the GOP. Look at Virginia, we could’ve done a hard gerrymander on them like they did to us in 2010. Look at Michigan, more sharing. Granted both maps are an improvement over 2010, but the GOP is going in hard and dry in literally every state they can and they control way more states.

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15492

Posted
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22 hours ago, gmr548 said:


D +5-6 in the popular vote would hold the house. Probably gain a few seats.

Nowhere near enough to feel confident of that, but that it’s even on the table is pretty wild. Better now and November is an eternity in American politics though. One bad cycle of economic data and it could snap right back.

I know I'm being pedantic on this, but most voters aren't going to vote in November.  Because of early voting and vote-by-mail, most voters are going to vote in the second half of October.  And truthfully, that's just two months away.

That's not to say that things can't change between now and then.  But it is to say that shit's not nearly as far into the future as it used to be when the vast majority of voters actually voted in person on election day.

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Js1

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2 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Who are these people

Arizona

Schweikert is running in AZ-01 after he was drawn out of his AZ-06 seat.  Total tossup seat

Engel is running in the now open AZ-06. Also a total tossup seat 

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