2022 House elections

[GopherRock 1765]

2 hours ago, chainsaw said:

Let me get this straight:

First, Murkowski votes to convict Trump.

Then, they retaliate against Murkowski by changing the rules to RCV.

Then, they run Sarah Palin to replace their piece of shit representative because MAGA.

Then, not only does Murkowski still easily win but Palin loses.

Then, Tom Cotton and the other shitheels blame these Ls on the rules changes they made specifically to fuck Murkowski?

Do I have that right?

Pretty much. 

It's akin to Georgia's Jim Crow-relic rules forcing the main Senate race to OT, then costing the GOP both seats. 

[Voldemort86 2259]

2 hours ago, Js1 said:

In addition to AK-AL going from likely R -> tossup, 4 more rating changes, all in Democrats' favor.  Is that what a red wave looks like?

AZ-04: lean D -> likely D (Greg Stanton running for re-election in a D+2 seat)

MD-06: lean D -> likely D (David Trone running for re-election in a D+2 seat)

NY-03: tossup -> lean D (open D+2 seat)

VA-07: tossup -> lean D (Abigail Spanberger running for re-election in a D+1 seat)

 

If some of those D+1/D+2 seats start tiling Dem's way, that's like 24 seats.  There's 191 seats that are D+3 or higher, which includes new seats like NC-14 and OR-06 and R-held seats like TX-34 (Flores), CA-22 (Valadao), CA-27 (Garcia) and IL-13 (open). 

24 D+1/D+2 seats
7 even seats

Some of those Dems in R seats (8 in R+1 or R+2 seats and 10 in R+3 or higher seats) might be feeling a bit better. 

I truly think it's going to be a nail biter for the House when seats like NY-23, NE-01 and MN-01 were so close and Dems kept NY-19 and picked up AK-AL.  The odds are what they are, they will adjust with post-Labor Day polling. 

Senate is looking pretty blue. House might be 60-40 odds in favor of GOP, but dems have all the momentum right now and that could continue to keep improving the dems odds. Some repubs who follow politics think the repub momentum will pick up after Labor Day.

I think with the combination of roe v wade being struck down, dark Brandon’s comeback from the dead, democrats NOT talking about defunding the police, and democrats actually getting to go door to door knocking that we might actually do better in the house than 2020. Way too many people voted for Biden then “balanced” their ticket by voting for a MAGA idiot GOP congress critter for my liking and I think the defund the police and not door knocking crap had a ton to do with that. Thankfully those look like one time mistakes that the dems won’t make again.

[Voldemort86 2259]

2 hours ago, Js1 said:

In addition to AK-AL going from likely R -> tossup, 4 more rating changes, all in Democrats' favor.  Is that what a red wave looks like?

AZ-04: lean D -> likely D (Greg Stanton running for re-election in a D+2 seat)

MD-06: lean D -> likely D (David Trone running for re-election in a D+2 seat)

NY-03: tossup -> lean D (open D+2 seat)

VA-07: tossup -> lean D (Abigail Spanberger running for re-election in a D+1 seat)

 

If some of those D+1/D+2 seats start tiling Dem's way, that's like 24 seats.  There's 191 seats that are D+3 or higher, which includes new seats like NC-14 and OR-06 and R-held seats like TX-34 (Flores), CA-22 (Valadao), CA-27 (Garcia) and IL-13 (open). 

24 D+1/D+2 seats
7 even seats

Some of those Dems in R seats (8 in R+1 or R+2 seats and 10 in R+3 or higher seats) might be feeling a bit better. 

I truly think it's going to be a nail biter for the House when seats like NY-23, NE-01 and MN-01 were so close and Dems kept NY-19 and picked up AK-AL.  The odds are what they are, they will adjust with post-Labor Day polling. 

With the house probably going to be so close, I can’t help but ask, why in Maryland and New York did the dem gerrymanders get struck down? While Ohio, Florida, Louisiana, and Alabama did whatever the hell they wanted without the courts bothering to care at all?
 

if we lose the house by 2-5 seats it will be because of this and some of the “bipartisan commissions” that only seem to be up in blue states. The dems could’ve gerrymandered California, New York, and Virginia much more effectively without having to work with the GOP and hand cuff ourselves while Texas, Florida, and Ohio pretty much had free reign to draw the nastiest gerrymander possible.

[The Dog 43808]

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

3 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

Paging Ken “indictment” Paxton on line 1.  This kind of evil, heart breaking, and diabolical shit is in that motherfuckers wheelhouse.

Edited September 1, 2022 by Voldemort86

[Js1 85112]

The self sabotage is ridiculous

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

The self sabotage is ridiculous

 

It’s all they have. They never come up with any idea of their own besides “tax cuts for top 10%”. The other big part of their playbook is “ lets own the libs and undo what they did!”.

Republicans tried for the last 10 years to kill Obamacare and now I think they are looking for their next boogeyman. 

[CooterBrown 17913]

With the house probably going to be so close, I can’t help but ask, why in Maryland and New York did the dem gerrymanders get struck down? While Ohio, Florida, Louisiana, and Alabama did whatever the hell they wanted without the courts bothering to care at all?
 
if we lose the house by 2-5 seats it will be because of this and some of the “bipartisan commissions” that only seem to be up in blue states. The dems could’ve gerrymandered California, New York, and Virginia much more effectively without having to work with the GOP and hand cuff ourselves while Texas, Florida, and Ohio pretty much had free reign to draw the nastiest gerrymander possible.

It’s simple. Dem courts erroneously still think election maps should be fair and Rep courts don’t give a shit about fairness.

[Ghost of LL 15492]

6 hours ago, The Dog said:

 

It's really, really fucking hard for me to think of who would have standing to bring this suit.

[Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand 13547]

2 hours ago, Js1 said:

The self sabotage is ridiculous

 

This is Morning In America level shit. 

[SydneyCarton 47884]

13 hours ago, Js1 said:

The self sabotage is ridiculous

 

Yeah. It’s like watching the last 40 years of democratic behavior. 

[gmr548 16517]

19 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

With the house probably going to be so close, I can’t help but ask, why in Maryland and New York did the dem gerrymanders get struck down? While Ohio, Florida, Louisiana, and Alabama did whatever the hell they wanted without the courts bothering to care at all?
 

if we lose the house by 2-5 seats it will be because of this and some of the “bipartisan commissions” that only seem to be up in blue states. The dems could’ve gerrymandered California, New York, and Virginia much more effectively without having to work with the GOP and hand cuff ourselves while Texas, Florida, and Ohio pretty much had free reign to draw the nastiest gerrymander possible.

CA is still prettyeffectivly gerrymandered, FWIW. But in general, you know why.

[Gil Bang 25898]

We need the gays to save us from this asshole

 

 

PALM SPRINGS, Calif. — Tucked away in the California desert, where windmills line the sprawling hills and rainbows adorn the crosswalks, a sizable progressive L.G.B.T.Q. community has turned a once reliably Republican stronghold into a battleground in the fight for control of Congress, giving Democrats hope for picking up a House seat that has long been beyond their reach.

 

Representative Ken Calvert, a Republican who has served in Congress for three decades, has almost never faced a tough re-election contest in this ruby-red corner of Southern California. But a redrawn political map in the state has reshaped his district this year, adding Palm Springs, a liberal bastion that residents proclaim to be the gayest city in America. The new district lines have put his seat at risk as he faces off against an openly gay Democrat, Will Rollins, a former federal prosecutor.

The shift has made Mr. Calvert’s district one of only a handful of Republican-held House seats that Democrats have a hope of flipping in November’s midterm elections, in which they are bracing for losses that could cost them the House majority. While Mr. Calvert has an edge in fund-raising and the power that comes with years of incumbency, the shifting political ground has made his re-election race more competitive than it has been in over a decade.

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Much of the shift has been driven by heavily L.G.B.T.Q. Palm Springs, which in this year’s primary election had the highest turnout rate in the district, with just under 54 percent of eligible voters casting a ballot, well above the 34 percent turnout level for the district overall, according to Political Data Intelligence, a California-based political and voter data firm.

“People flock here from across the Inland Empire for safety and comfort,” Christy Holstege, a bisexual member of Palm Springs’ all-L.G.B.T.Q. City Council, said of the surrounding region as she gazed up at the statue of Marilyn Monroe that overlooks the city. “They know that this is a little sliver of safety, and since our turnout is high, it makes us that much more powerful.”

The city was known in its early days as a retreat for Hollywood celebrities, and it later became home to thousands of gay men who relocated there during the AIDS epidemic for the warm climate, affordable housing and access to health care. It is now the epitome of kitsch and rich, with its midcentury architecture, pastel pink at every corner and a lively nightlife.

Chad Gardner, a local business owner and chef who is gay, said he was moved by the influence that his community has in the election.

“We do have some areas that are more conservative in the Inland Empire, so it’s going to come down to how we can energize our base,” Mr. Gardner said, lounging in a plush white chair in an air-conditioned upscale restaurant to escape the 100-degree heat on a recent morning.

Mr. Calvert, who received a zero on the Human Rights Campaign’s most recent scorecard rating members of Congress on issues of interest to the L.G.B.T.Q. community, appears to have taken notice. In July, he joined 46 other Republicans in voting in favor of a bill that would recognize same-sex marriage at the federal level, a reversal after years of opposing legislation to protect L.G.B.T.Q. rights.

“As I have said for years, I believe the legality of same-sex marriage is settled law and I do not support revisiting that determination,” Mr. Calvert said in a statement. He declined to be interviewed.

 

Despite the turnabout, he may have an uphill slog to earn the backing of the gay and lesbian voters in his new district, many of whom have bitter memories of the last time Mr. Calvert faced a gay opponent.

In 1994, in his race against Mark Takano, who is gay but had not yet come out publicly, Mr. Calvert circulated pink mailers questioning whether Mr. Takano would be “a congressman for Riverside … or San Francisco?” (Eight years later, Mr. Takano won election to represent a different House district in California, becoming the first openly gay person of Asian descent to serve in Congress.)

Samuel Garrett-Pate, the managing director of external affairs at Equality California, an L.G.B.T.Q. civil rights organization, said it would be “poetic justice” if Mr. Calvert were unseated by an openly gay candidate.

Still, Republican operatives contend that Mr. Calvert, who through the end of June had raised $2.4 million for his campaign compared with Mr. Rollins’s $1.5 million, is still in a strong position given the right-leaning bent of the western portion of the district. Overall, the numbers of registered Democrats and Republicans in the district were roughly even as of May.

“Palm Springs alone isn’t going to win this campaign,” said Matt Rexroad, a Sacramento-based Republican political consultant.

Mr. Rollins, 37, whose work as a federal prosecutor focused on counterterrorism and counterintelligence, has not made gay rights the main thrust of his campaign, one he said he decided to undertake after the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol. He has centered his message on preserving democracy and improving the economy, but he said civil rights protections were embedded in both goals.

“Our economy is better served when we all win — when we are all served equally,” Mr. Rollins said.

As he worked with volunteers in his campaign office on a recent afternoon writing postcards to prospective voters, Mr. Rollins argued that he represented the region better than Mr. Calvert did, calling the lawmaker’s voting record “an example of how pandering to the extremes is just a losing political strategy.”

Mr. Calvert, 69, who has been endorsed by former President Donald J. Trump, voted for his party’s bid to throw out electoral votes for Joseph R. Biden Jr. on Jan. 6. He opposed the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill last year and a compromise gun safety measure that Congress passed in June. Along with his Republican colleagues, he voted against Democrats’ sweeping climate, health care and tax bill, which he said would increase spending at a time of record inflation.

A spokeswoman for the House Republicans’ campaign arm, Torunn Sinclair, said voters in Mr. Calvert’s district and elsewhere in California were most concerned about the economy and the cost of living. “Will Rollins will lose because he supports the Biden administration’s agenda that caused this inflation crisis and raised taxes,” Ms. Sinclair said.

Mr. Calvert won re-election in 2020 by 14 percentage points. But in the primary in June, where the top two vote-getters advanced regardless of political party, he received less than half the votes in his new district against two Democrats, an independent and an anti-Trump Republican.

At a fund-raiser in May hosted by Barbara Boxer, a former Democratic senator from California, Mr. Rollins received over $200,000, Ms. Boxer said.

“People really understand the importance of this race,” she said. “Calvert does not reflect the values of the people.”

While Mr. Rollins has lagged his opponent in fund-raising, Democrats note that he outraised Mr. Calvert for the first time last quarter, according to Federal Election Commission filings.

Brady Bates, 22, a newcomer who said he recently moved to Palm Springs for “the vibe” and because he felt safe there as a gay man, said he was undecided in the congressional race but would not support a candidate backed by Mr. Trump.

J. Ovier Alvarez, a 33-year-old gay man who described himself as a conservative-leaning independent, also said he had yet to choose between the two candidates. A real estate agent, he said he did not care about Mr. Trump’s endorsement but was concerned about L.G.B.T.Q. issues.

“We need leadership with an open mind that will allow for L.G.B.T.Q. inclusion,” Mr. Alvarez said, “but also someone who will make sure we have a good compromise that will allow us to live comfortably with the rest of the region.”

[Js1 85112]

The gays vote. We vote and get vaccinated. We do our civic duty 

[Tuco 5076]

19 hours ago, Gil Bang said:

Brady Bates, 22, a newcomer who said he recently moved to Palm Springs for “the vibe” and because he felt safe there as a gay man, said he was undecided in the congressional race but would not support a candidate backed by Mr. Trump.

That guy should be in a training videos for campaigns.  22 years old.  Just moved.  Knows he doesn't like Trump or Trump allies, but doesn't know which names are on his side.  He doesn't need convincing, just direction.  Get him registered.  Repeat "Will Rollins" a thousand times in a thousand ways until the name sticks.  Make sure he knows how, when, and where he can vote.  Repeat that information a few dozen times.  Get him a mail in ballot.  Remind him to send it in. A few dozen times if needed.  Getting his vote has nothing to do with political positions and everything to do with putting the work (and money) in. 

And there are thousands of other Brady Bates out there.  People who follow politics (like everyone on this thread) frequently lose the context that we are the weird ones. 

[ChuckNorrisActionJeans 2659]

*Bateses   

like keeping up with the Joneses 

 

sorry this is just the all-time most common grammar mistake 

Agree with your take though.

[aggie08 21434]

20 hours ago, Gil Bang said:

We need the gays to save us from this asshole

[Voldemort86 2259]

big week coming up. The GOP has long pointed to Labor Day as the turning point in the polls when they switch from registered voters to likely voters and how the dem momentum will evaporate.

We could find out a lot today and by Friday.

[The Dog 43808]

 

[atomheartbevo 89449]

And plenty of Republicans won’t shut up about abortion bans, and are even promising more to come.  If I had George Soros money, I’d be paying off Republican politicians to talk about abortion even more.

[Js1 85112]

11 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

And plenty of Republicans won’t shut up about abortion bans, and are even promising more to come.  If I had George Soros money, I’d be paying off Republican politicians to talk about abortion even more.

Yes and no, many of them (nationally) are pretending they've never heard about abortion or ever taken a stance on it. 

[YGIFS 19449]

19 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Yes and no, many of them (nationally) are pretending they've never heard about abortion or ever taken a stance on it. 

This.  I've noticed so many more, even here in Texas, quieting down about it and claiming to be wholly unaware of some recent extremist laws.

Rep., "Abort-what?  Yes, I understand that they had to abort the Artemis I launch at NASA.  Or 'scrub' as we say on the House Science & Space Committee, I'm very up on these things.  Women's issues are very important to me as well, they are struggling to pay for groceries in this inflation caused by Joe Biden.  Also, Hunter Biden's laptop is a menace to women.  If you'll excuse me, we have a briefing starting shortly.  Thank you."  

[Bateshorn 9905]

On 9/1/2022 at 6:25 PM, CooterBrown said:

It’s simple. Dem courts erroneously still think election maps should be fair and Rep courts don’t give a shit about fairness.

This. 100%.  The GOP Florida and Ohio Supreme Courts actually agreed that it was egregious gerrymandering, but they didn't do anything about it.  Just put it off till after the election.

In the case of Louisana and Alabama, GOP Federal Judges agreed it was a violation of the VRA and there was plenty of time to redraw the district lines.  But Kav screamed "PURCELL!!!" and the Supreme Court slapped a hold on the orders. 

One of the interesting things about that NC Redistricting case the court will hear next year is the most immediate result would be striking down redistricting commissions or anti gerrymandering statutes in multiple blue states, probably netting the Dems between 12-18 seats.

[The Dog 43808]

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

3 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

This. 100%.  The GOP Florida and Ohio Supreme Courts actually agreed that it was egregious gerrymandering, but they didn't do anything about it.  Just put it off till after the election.

In the case of Louisana and Alabama, GOP Federal Judges agreed it was a violation of the VRA and there was plenty of time to redraw the district lines.  But Kav screamed "PURCELL!!!" and the Supreme Court slapped a hold on the orders. 

One of the interesting things about that NC Redistricting case the court will hear next year is the most immediate result would be striking down redistricting commissions or anti gerrymandering statutes in multiple blue states, probably netting the Dems between 12-18 seats.

Are you serious? I thought the NC redistricting case was all bad because NC is one of the few fairly gerrymandered states. I’d gladly give up NC and let the GOP gerrymander it 13-2 or whatever the fuck if it meant we could kill all of our dumb ass redistricting commissions and go in dry on the GOP in literally every blue state.

please elaborate or tell me more about this. Where would the dems presumably pick up seats to offset losses in NC?

[Bateshorn 9905]

3 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Are you serious? I thought the NC redistricting case was all bad because NC is one of the few fairly gerrymandered states. I’d gladly give up NC and let the GOP gerrymander it 13-2 or whatever the fuck if it meant we could kill all of our dumb ass redistricting commissions and go in dry on the GOP in literally every blue state.

please elaborate or tell me more about this. Where would the dems presumably pick up seats to offset losses in NC?

The downside is it would make the “independent legislature” theory real, which could in theory allow legislatures to ignore the will of the voters in assigning electors.

but it would mean NY and MD could ignore fair redistricting court orders, and challenges could be brought in WA, CO, and CA. 

Edited September 6, 2022 by Bateshorn

[Neonmoon 38127]

58 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

That’s because the other side is promoting labor camps. I mean, it’s a touch choice to be sure

[Js1 85112]

1 hour ago, The Dog said:

 

 

1 minute ago, Neonmoon said:

That’s because the other side is promoting labor camps. I mean, it’s a touch choice to be sure

"Somewhat disapprove" voters, to me, are the soft Democrats/disillusioned Dems who aren't happy with Joe but they aren't going to vote Republican.

The key is to get them to turn out. 

Btw, Insider Advantage (Sean Hannity's polling outfit):

Biden approval 45/54, up from 38/60 in their August poll
D+1 (45-44) - last month was R+1 (45-44)

I highly HIGHLY doubt Sean Hannity's polling outfit is herding. 

[Js1 85112]

 

MI-03 is D+1
WA-08 is D+1

Those are races that would be lean R in a "wave" year, but lean D is a neutral/slightly Dem favored environment. 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

On 9/6/2022 at 9:05 AM, The Dog said:

 

 

[The Dog 43808]

 

[Hefeweizen 5307]

No you’re licking Joe Bidens taint if you point out the lunatics in it he GOP.   Didn’t you get the memo?

[Js1 85112]

According to the Traitor Party, Republicans are gonna start paying attention post-Labor Day and it's fucking OVER for the Dems. 

538 GCB:

September 5: D+1
September 8: D+1.1

(It’s 1.2 now)

The only post-September 1 poll showing them leading on the GCB is from the GOP Senate arm (R+3) 

Edited September 8, 2022 by Js1

[Voldemort86 2259]

3 hours ago, Js1 said:

According to the Traitor Party, Republicans are gonna start paying attention post-Labor Day and it's fucking OVER for the Dems. 

538 GCB:

September 5: D+1
September 8: D+1.1

The only post-September 1 poll showing Dems leading on the GCB is from the GOP Senate arm (R+3) 

Yeah……. I keep waiting for these doomsday polls to drop, but I’m not seeing them. 

[Js1 85112]

6 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Yeah……. I keep waiting for these doomsday polls to drop, but I’m not seeing them. 

In 2014, it started to shift in mid-September.  I think we'll know soon if there's an actual shift or not.  

Either - 

The polls are right, because 2010/2018 were pretty on point for the GCB
The polls are wrong because either GOP isn't responding to them (so undercounting GOP support) or they aren't finding the pissed off women/young voters (undercounting Dem support)
 

[Voldemort86 2259]

Only poll I’ve seen today is 48-44 +4 dem GCB

[StassneyHorn 6540]

I believe North Carolina can start voting absentee tomorrow

[Dutchrudder 11115]

Oh you just wait for the October surprise of Jill Biden's personal iPhone that was left unlocked at the Genius bar in west Philadelphia. The genius assigned to work on it just happens to be the roommate of James O'Keefe. He does some digging and shows that the phone has texts of Jill and Hillary sharing "homemade cookie recipes," which were actually STOLEN from Betty Crocker herself!!!  Voters can't let someone like that be first lady! 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

11 minutes ago, Dutchrudder said:

Oh you just wait for the October surprise of Jill Biden's personal iPhone that was left unlocked at the Genius bar in west Philadelphia. The genius assigned to work on it just happens to be the roommate of James O'Keefe. He does some digging and shows that the phone has texts of Jill and Hillary sharing "homemade cookie recipes," which were actually STOLEN from Betty Crocker herself!!!  Voters can't let someone like that be first lady! 

When you’re famous, they let you do it. 

[Ghost of LL 15492]

6 hours ago, Js1 said:

According to the Traitor Party, Republicans are gonna start paying attention post-Labor Day and it's fucking OVER for the Dems. 

538 GCB:

September 5: D+1
September 8: D+1.1

(It’s 1.2 now)

The only post-September 1 poll showing them leading on the GCB is from the GOP Senate arm (R+3) 

It's not that people start paying attention.  Its that pollsters shift their methodology from "registered voters" to "likely voters."  But I'm not sure whether that's happened yet.

The presumption that the shift from registered-voter polls to likely-voter polls favors Republicans, however, may be outdated.  I'm just really not sure it's true since higher education has come to be so heavily linked to Democratic voting behavior.  

[Js1 85112]

28 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

It's not that people start paying attention.  Its that pollsters shift their methodology from "registered voters" to "likely voters."  But I'm not sure whether that's happened yet.

The presumption that the shift from registered-voter polls to likely-voter polls favors Republicans, however, may be outdated.  I'm just really not sure it's true since higher education has come to be so heavily linked to Democratic voting behavior.  

Kevin McCarthy and Election Twitter literally keep making the argument that people are "paying attention now." But they're idiots. 

And you're wholly correct on the education thing.  College educated voters and female voters show up in midterms.  The GOP's base is mostly uneducated men.  Dems still need to focus on turning out the youth vote (Dobbs and student loans debt) and minority votes (black and Hispanic voters, especially women, are in favor of abortion). 

HOWEVER, if you are going into polling with an assumption that GOP will show up and Dems won't, your LV screens are going to be off.  And you can't do that in 2022, because both parties are almost equal/maybe slightly Dem-leaning in terms of enthusiasm. 

Edited September 8, 2022 by Js1

[Js1 85112]

Okay, NOW Michigan Republicans are fucked.  SCOMI ruled 5-2 to allow the abortion (RFFA), voting rights (PTV) and term limits onto the ballot after the Election Board deadlocked 2-2.  Two of the three GOP justices, including one who is up for re-election, dissented.  

Would be nice for the court to be 5-2 after November, with re-elected Gov Whitmer and Democrats picking up 2 House seats and flipping the state lege (need to flip 3 house and 4 senate seats). 

[Voldemort86 2259]

8 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Okay, NOW Michigan Republicans are fucked.  SCOMI ruled 5-2 to allow the abortion (RFFA), voting rights (PTV) and term limits onto the ballot after the Election Board deadlocked 2-2.  Two of the three GOP justices, including one who is up for re-election, dissented.  

Would be nice for the court to be 5-2 after November, with re-elected Gov Whitmer and Democrats picking up 2 House seats and flipping the state lege (need to flip 3 house and 4 senate seats). 

I’m more worried about the ohio, North Carolina, and Wisconsin supreme courts.  Need to control those to avoid getting hit with egregious gerrymanders.

[Js1 85112]

11 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

I’m more worried about the ohio, North Carolina, and Wisconsin supreme courts.  Need to control those to avoid getting hit with egregious gerrymanders.

I didn't really ask what you're worried about - Michigan is also important for 2024.  The bug up your ass is gerrymandering, but abortion and voting rights are just as fucking important, especially in purple states like Michigan. 

Control of the NC court is up in Nov - 2 Dem seats are up
No Wisconsin court elections until 2023
3 seats are up in Ohio in 2022 (all GOP seats) - Dem Jennifer Brunner, who won a seat in 2020 running on the same ballot as Trump winning the state, is running for the open Chief Justice seat.  If she wins, her seat would be backfilled by (likely) DeWine.  If she loses, she keeps her seat until 2027. But she'd be setting the agenda as Chief Justice.

[Zonahorn 8079]

7 hours ago, Js1 said:

I didn't really ask what you're worried about - Michigan is also important for 2024.  The bug up your ass is gerrymandering, but abortion and voting rights are just as fucking important, especially in purple states like Michigan. 

Control of the NC court is up in Nov - 2 Dem seats are up
No Wisconsin court elections until 2023
3 seats are up in Ohio in 2022 (all GOP seats) - Dem Jennifer Brunner, who won a seat in 2020 running on the same ballot as Trump winning the state, is running for the open Chief Justice seat.  If she wins, her seat would be backfilled by (likely) DeWine.  If she loses, she keeps her seat until 2027. But she'd be setting the agenda as Chief Justice.

The ballot initiative for voting rights got thrown out by the Arizona Supreme Court. The initiative received 475,000 signatures, and the court just so happened to void enough signatures to keep it off the ballot. We’re also going to get stuck with a total abortion ban because of a trigger law written when Arizona was a territory.

[Js1 85112]

Nothing like changing your messages 8 weeks out when ballots are already going out for the general.

[Neonmoon 38127]

GOP: Let’s go back to the fear well 

1. Immigrant caravans (fear the immigrants)

2. CRT (fear the blacks)

3. Communism (fear a word you don’t know the meaning of)

4. Hunter Biden laptop (fear big dicks)

5. Global elites (fear the Jews)

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

11 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

GOP: Let’s go back to the fear well 

1. Immigrant caravans (fear the immigrants)

2. CRT (fear the blacks)

3. Communism (fear a word you don’t know the meaning of)

4. Hunter Biden laptop (fear big dicks)

5. Global elites (fear the Jews)

 

The GOP is a party that thrives on doing nothing, but help rich people while simultaneously distracting the weak minded fools who aren’t rich, but still vote for them with something to hate or fear.

The GOP used to win elections with foreign wars with generic promises to “ keep us safe” and “ be tough on the bad guys”. While our military were already doing just that.

they’d pass tax cuts for the rich while convincing the lowly peons that every American is getting their taxes cut.

they jumped all over critical race theory because it’s a way to endear themselves to overprotective parents who are worried about little johny finding a book with inappropriate content in a school library or a liberal teacher brain washing their kids against the evil conservatives.

The GOP never does anything for anybody outside the top 10% and I don’t know how they get away with it, but they do.

[chainsaw 9838]

The GOP is torn apart. The people who win their primaries are too crazy for most voters. They've run off all the Liz Cheneys.

[Js1 85112]

Trafalgar notoriously sucks - but this is not great for the GOP when your biased pollster releases this

COSA-GOP-Confidence-Full-Report-0905.pdf (thetrafalgargroup.org)

Have Republicans made a strong enough case that they should earn your support in the 2022 midterm elections?

56.1% - NO
33.9% - YES
10% - not sure

25.9% of Republicans say NO
57.2% of independents say NO

63.6% of 25-34 say NO
60.5% of 35-44 say NO
56.3% of 45-64 say NO
53.9% of 65+ say NO
(somehow only 18-24 say yes, lmao, this is so wrong)

56% of women say NO
56.3% of men say NO

52.3% of Asian voters say NO
68.7% of black voters say NO
62.5% of Hispanic voters say NO
46.5% of other voters say NO
(White voters say 53.5% YES)