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2022 House elections

Gil Bang

By Gil Bang
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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15492

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4 hours ago, Js1 said:

Trafalgar notoriously sucks - but this is not great for the GOP when your biased pollster releases this

COSA-GOP-Confidence-Full-Report-0905.pdf (thetrafalgargroup.org)

Have Republicans made a strong enough case that they should earn your support in the 2022 midterm elections?

56.1% - NO
33.9% - YES
10% - not sure

25.9% of Republicans say NO
57.2% of independents say NO

63.6% of 25-34 say NO
60.5% of 35-44 say NO
56.3% of 45-64 say NO
53.9% of 65+ say NO
(somehow only 18-24 say yes, lmao, this is so wrong)

56% of women say NO
56.3% of men say NO

52.3% of Asian voters say NO
68.7% of black voters say NO
62.5% of Hispanic voters say NO
46.5% of other voters say NO
(White voters say 53.5% YES)

Ok--and I have to tell you that I'm not a fan of Trafalgar,  . . . but, that is a really interesting question and a novel way to frame the generic-ballot question.

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Dutchrudder

Dutchrudder 11115

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2 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Looking over the Fox News poll,

why do dems get the blame for inflation when it’s a global phenomenon exacerbated by the Russia war?

Because we all know that war would have been over in a couple of weeks if Trump was President. He would have been sending weapons to Moscow to help fight "the Nazis in east Ukraine", and also to get back at Zelensky for rejecting his request to find dirt on Biden. He might have offered to bomb Kyiv for all we know.

He also wouldn't have imposed sanctions on Russia, which did drive up the price of oil and drive some global inflation. Hell he probably would have us buying more Russian oil to support their war effort. 

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Js1

Js1 85112

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Dude will you relax?

These types of seats shifting left, even incrementally, does not help the GOP and is terrible for them. Why?

AZ-01 is R+2 is a seat that shouldn’t be in tossup territory in a good year for the GOP. They have to win these types of seats in November and they’re not locking them down in September 

AZ-02 is R+6 and is “lean” R? Terrible for them. Should be in the bag 

TX-28 is a major target for the GOP at D+3 with the South Texas Latino trend - that’s awful for them it’s now lean D

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 47884

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35 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Dude will you relax?

These types of seats shifting left, even incrementally, does not help the GOP and is terrible for them. Why?

AZ-01 is R+2 is a seat that shouldn’t be in tossup territory in a good year for the GOP. They have to win these types of seats in November and they’re not locking them down in September 

AZ-02 is R+6 and is “lean” R? Terrible for them. Should be in the bag 

TX-28 is a major target for the GOP at D+3 with the South Texas Latino trend - that’s awful for them it’s now lean D

I mean, you're right. But the other guy has a point as well. If they win a ton of seats by razor thin margins that should have been cakewalks, they still have the power to fuck every election up moving forward. 

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Js1

Js1 85112

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1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

I mean, you're right. But the other guy has a point as well. If they win a ton of seats by razor thin margins that should have been cakewalks, they still have the power to fuck every election up moving forward. 

Sure.  The most likely outcome is still a razor thin R majority that will probably blow itself up with infighting.  McCarthy can't wrangle those cats.   

But we are getting closer and closer to November and momentum is not on the GOP's side.  At all.  

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Sure.  The most likely outcome is still a razor thin R majority that will probably blow itself up with infighting.  McCarthy can't wrangle those cats.   

But we are getting closer and closer to November and momentum is not on the GOP's side.  At all.  

I’m happy about the news. It’s obviously much much better than the announcement that those seats are solid R now. We just need more of these kinds of updates. That’s all I was trying to say. Hopefully we get a few more like this before November arrives.

I just want to avoid complete morons like boobert and Marjorie Taylor Greene having any power whatsoever. It would be a joke and a disaster for the country.

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Gil Bang

Gil Bang 25898

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Spoiler

WASHINGTON (AP) — Campaigning for a northwestern Ohio congressional seat, Republican J.R. Majewski presents himself as an Air Force combat veteran who deployed to Afghanistan after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, once describing “tough” conditions including a lack of running water that forced him to go more than 40 days without a shower.

Military documents obtained by The Associated Press through a public records request tell a different story.

They indicate Majewski never deployed to Afghanistan but instead completed a six-month stint helping to load planes at an air base in Qatar, a longtime U.S. ally that is a safe distance from the fighting.

Majewski’s account of his time in the military is just one aspect of his biography that is suspect. His post-military career has been defined by exaggerations, conspiracy theories, talk of violent action against the U.S. government and occasional financial duress.

Still, thanks to an unflinching allegiance to former President Donald Trump — Majewski once painted a massive Trump mural on his lawn — he also stands a chance of defeating longtime Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur in a district recently redrawn to favor Republicans.

Majewski is among a cluster of GOP candidates, most running for office for the first time, whose unvarnished life stories and hard-right politics could diminish the chances of a Republican “red wave” on Election Day in November. He is also a vivid representation of a new breed of politicians who reject facts as they try to emulate Trump.

“It bothers me when people trade on their military service to get elected to office when what they are doing is misleading the people they want to vote for them,” Don Christensen, a retired Air Force colonel, said of Majewski. “Veterans have done so much for this country and when you claim to have done what your brothers and sisters in arms actually did to build up your reputation, it is a disservice.”

Majewski’s campaign declined to make him available for an interview and, in a lengthy statement issued to the AP, did not directly address questions about his claim of deploying to Afghanistan. A spokeswoman declined to provide additional comment when the AP followed up with additional questions.

“I am proud to have served my country,” Majewski said in the statement. “My accomplishments and record are under attack, meanwhile, career politician Marcy Kaptur has a forty-year record of failure for my Toledo community, which is why I’m running for Congress.”

With no previous political experience, Majewski is perhaps an unlikely person to be the Republican nominee taking on Kaptur, who has represented the Toledo area since 1983. But two state legislators who were also on the ballot in the August GOP primary split the establishment vote. That cleared a path for Majewski, who previously worked in the nuclear power industry and dabbled in politics as a pro-Trump hip-hop performer and promoter of the QAnon conspiracy theory. He was also at the U.S. Capitol during the insurrection on Jan. 6, 2021.

Throughout his campaign Majewski has offered his Air Force service as a valuable credential. The tagline “veteran for Congress” appears on campaign merchandise. He ran a Facebook ad promoting himself as “combat veteran.” And in a campaign video released this year, Majewski marauds through a vacant factory with a rifle while pledging to restore an America that is “independent and strong like the country I fought for.”

More recently, the House Republican campaign committee released a biography that describes Majewski as a veteran whose “squadron was one of the first on the ground in Afghanistan after 9/11.” A campaign ad posted online Tuesday by Majewski supporters flashed the words “Afghanistan War Veteran” across the screen alongside a picture of a younger Majewski in his dress uniform. A biography posted on his campaign website does not mention Afghanistan.

But Majewski hasn’t been forthcoming when asked about the specifics of his service.

“I don’t like talking about my military experience,” he said in a 2021 interview on the One American Podcast after volunteering that he served one tour of duty in Afghanistan. “It was a tough time in life. You know, the military wasn’t easy.”

A review of his service records, which the AP obtained from the National Archives through a public records request, as well as an accounting provided by the Air Force, offers a possible explanation for his hesitancy.

Rather than deploying to Afghanistan, as he has claimed, the records state that Majewski was based at Kadena Air Base in Japan for much of his active-duty service. He later deployed for six months to Qatar in May 2002, where he helped load and unload planes while serving as a “passenger operations specialist,” the records show.

While based in Qatar, Majewski would land at other air bases to transfer military passengers, medics, supplies, his campaign said. The campaign did not answer a direct question about whether he was ever in Afghanistan.

Experts argue Majewski’s description of himself as a “combat veteran” is also misleading.

The term can evoke images of soldiers storming a beachhead or finding refuge during a firefight. But under the laws and regulations of the U.S. government, facing live fire has little to do with someone earning the title.

During the Persian Gulf War, then-President George H.W. Bush designated, for the first time, countries used as combat support areas as combat zones despite the low-risk of American service members ever facing hostilities. That helped veterans receive a favorable tax status. Qatar, which is now home to the largest U.S. air base in the Middle East, was among the countries that received the designation under Bush’s executive order — a status that remains in effect today.

Regardless, it rankles some when those seeking office offer their status as a combat veteran as a credential to voters without explaining that it does not mean that they came under hostile fire.

“As somebody who was in Qatar, I do not consider myself a combat veteran,” said Christensen, the retired Air Force colonel who now runs Protect Our Defenders, a military watchdog organization. “I think that would be offensive to those who were actually engaged in combat and Iraq and Afghanistan.”

Majewski’s campaign said that he calls himself a combat veteran because the area he deployed to — Qatar — is considered a combat zone.

Majewski also lacks many of the medals that are typically awarded to those who served in Afghanistan.

Though he once said that he went more than 40 days without a shower during his time in the landlocked country, he does not have an Afghanistan campaign medal, which was issued to those who served “30 consecutive days or 60 nonconsecutive days” in the country.

He also did not receive a Global War on Terrorism Expeditionary Medal, which was issued to service members before the creation of the Afghanistan campaign medal if they deployed overseas in “direct service to the War on Terror.”

Matthew Borie, an Air Force veteran who worked in intelligence and reviewed Majewski’s records at AP’s request said it’s “odd” that Majewski lacks many of the “medals you would expect to see for someone who deployed to Afghanistan.”

There’s also the matter of Majewski’s final rank and reenlistment code when he left active duty after four years of service.

Most leave the service after four years having received several promotions that are generally awarded for time served. Majewski exited at a rank that was one notch above where he started. His enlistment code also indicated that he could not sign up with the Air Force again.

Majewski’s campaign said he received what’s called a nonjudicial punishment in 2001 after getting into a “brawl” in his dormitory, which resulted in the demotion. Nonjudicial punishments are designed to hold service members accountable for bad behavior that does not rise to the level of a court-martial.

Majewski’s resume exaggeration isn’t limited to his military service, reverberating throughout his professional life, as well as a nascent political career that took shape in an online world of conspiracy theories.

Since gaining traction in his campaign for Congress, Majewski has denied that he is a follower of the QAnon conspiracy theory while playing down his participation in Capitol riot.

The baseless and apocalyptic QAnon belief is based on cryptic online postings by the anonymous “Q,” who is purportedly a government insider. It posits that Trump is fighting entrenched enemies in the government and also involves satanism and child sex trafficking.

“Let me be clear, I denounce QAnon. I do not support Q, and I do not subscribe to their conspiracy theories,” Majewski said in his statement to the AP.

But in the past Majewski repeatedly posted QAnon references and memes to social media, wore a QAnon shirt during a TV interview and has described Zak Paine, a QAnon influencer and online personality who goes by the nom de guerre Redpill78, as a “good friend.”

During a February 2021 appearance on a YouTube stream, Majewsk stated, “I believe in everything that’s been put out from Q,” while characterizing the false posts as “military-level intelligence, in my opinion.” He also posted to the defunct right wing social media platform, Parler, a photo of the “Trump 2020” mural he painted on his lawn that was modified to change the zeros into “Q’s,” as first reported by CNN.

Then there’s Majewski’s participation in the Jan. 6 insurrection. Majewski has said that he raised about $25,000 to help dozens of people attend the “Stop the Steal” rally that preceded the attack on the Capitol. He also traveled to the event with his friend Paine, the QAnon influencer, and the two later appeared in social media postings near the Capitol.

Majewski acknowledged he was outside the Capitol, but denies entering the building. Still, he lamented the decision on a QAnon livestream a week after the attack, stating that he was “pissed off at myself” for not going in to the building.

“It was a struggle, because I really wanted to go in,” Majewski said on the livestream, which was first unearthed by the liberal group Media Matters.

Majewski has not been charged in connection with the attack. But he has falsely stated that the 2020 election was stolen from Trump and said that the insurrection “felt like a setup” by police who were targeting Trump supporters.

In his statement, Majewski said, “I deeply regret being at the Capitol that day” and “did not break the law,” while calling for those who did to be “punished to the fullest extent of the law.”

The mischaracterizations extend to his professional career, in which he has repeatedly described himself as an “executive in the nuclear power industry,” including in a campaign ad last spring.

But a review of his now-deleted resume on the website LinkedIn and a survey of his former employers do not support the claim.

He most recently worked for Holtec International, a Florida-based energy conglomerate that specializes in handling spent nuclear fuel. But he is not listed among the executives and members of the corporate leadership teams in current or archived versions of the company’s website.

A spokesman confirmed Majewski was a former Holtec employee, but declined to offer details on his position or role, which Majewski’s LinkedIn page described as “senior director, client relations.”

Majewski’s campaign declined to address his claim of being an executive, but said he participated in weekly conference calls with executives.

Majewski also described himself on LinkedIn as “project manager - senior consultant” for First Energy, an Ohio based power company, a position that he stated he held since shortly after leaving the military. The company, Majewski explained in a biography posted to his website, quickly recognized him for his “intellect and leadership capabilities”

Yet records from his 2009 bankruptcy raise questions about his seniority. They show he was an “outage manager” who earned about $51,000 a year. In the bankruptcy, Majewski and his wife gave up their home, two cars and a Jet Ski to settle the case, court records show.

Still, in a nationalized political environment, some Republicans suggest none of this will matter to the voters.

“At the end of the day, this will be a question of whether they want Nancy Pelosi leading the House or Kevin McCarthy,” said Tom Davis, a former congressman who led the House Republican campaign arm during George W. Bush’s presidency. “These elections have become less about the person. I wouldn’t say candidates don’t matter, but they don’t matter like they used to.”

___

LaPorta reported from Wilmington, North Carolina. AP investigative researcher Randy Herschaft in New York contributed to this report.

 

 

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The Dog

The Dog 43808

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2 hours ago, Js1 said:

If O'Halleran wins on Election Night, we kept the House and probably won 52 or 53 Senate seats.  

I'd still bet on the GOP winning the House. The Senate is the one to keep an eye on if you want a Democratic hold. The GOP candidates there are really bad.

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Js1

Js1 85112

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1 minute ago, The Dog said:

I'd still bet on the GOP winning the House. The Senate is the one to keep an eye on if you want a Democratic hold. The GOP candidates there are really bad.

Okay, first off, I never said otherwise.

If Dems are winning R+6 seats on Election Night, the environment was entirely wrong in polling and the Dems kept the House.

We will actually have a fairly decent idea early in the night, depending on how quickly races like NH-01/02 get called, of what the environment is.   

  • NH-01 is EVEN and NH-02 is D+2.  A quick Dem call would mean a pretty good night.  A quick GOP call would be a pretty bad night.  

Same with races like CT-02 and CT-05 (D+3) and the open RI-02 (D+4). 

Don't forget - 2018 looked abysmal for the Dems on Election Night because of the red mirage before mail-in ballot states finished counted.  Something like 4 CA races flipped when all the votes were counted in the end.  Dems also thought they lost the AZ-Sen seat that night, but Sinema prevailed after the mail-in ballots were counted.  We will see this in CA, PA, OR, OH, AZ and NY is notoriously slow to count as well. 

We all remember 2020 as well - Trump was bigly winning on election night in PA, WI and Michigan until everything was counted.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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23 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Okay, first off, I never said otherwise.

If Dems are winning R+6 seats on Election Night, the environment was entirely wrong in polling and the Dems kept the House.

We will actually have a fairly decent idea early in the night, depending on how quickly races like NH-01/02 get called, of what the environment is.   

  • NH-01 is EVEN and NH-02 is D+2.  A quick Dem call would mean a pretty good night.  A quick GOP call would be a pretty bad night.  

Same with races like CT-02 and CT-05 (D+3) and the open RI-02 (D+4). 

Don't forget - 2018 looked abysmal for the Dems on Election Night because of the red mirage before mail-in ballot states finished counted.  Something like 4 CA races flipped when all the votes were counted in the end.  Dems also thought they lost the AZ-Sen seat that night, but Sinema prevailed after the mail-in ballots were counted.  We will see this in CA, PA, OR, OH, AZ and NY is notoriously slow to count as well. 

We all remember 2020 as well - Trump was bigly winning on election night in PA, WI and Michigan until everything was counted.

It’s total bullshit too. Because the state GOP in many of those states both don’t allow election workers to count early voting and mail in voting before the polls close, then it’s the same people who complain about how they were winning before the “fix is in” and they “stole the seat”. 

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Js1

Js1 85112

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33 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Don’t know how accurate this guy is.

 

27 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

He thinks he's amazingly accurate. 

 

17 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

he was the last of the nate s / nate c / g elliot to acknowledge 2020 errors.   he had 6 months of defensiveness before he copped to it.  nate c was the best imo at self reflection.

They have said as we get closer to November and the polls don’t change much from the Dobbs to Labor Day numbers, the models adjust accordingly. Most of them weigh more heavily to priors than actual numbers until we get closer to Election Day  

I don’t know about economist but 538 also includes seat ratings, so the 3 races that moved in our favor today would affect the model. 

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Gil Bang

Gil Bang 25898

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This fucking guy...he could have just been proud of his service, been proud of being a veteran...serving honorably, etc. 

But no...he has to play it like he's dodging bullets on the regular.    I salute EVERYONE who serves/served, particularly during conflict (and FWIW I never served). 

But come the fuck on.  Dude was in the USAF, so, he was quite likely eating at TGI Friday's on the regular, jacking off to youporn with a good internet signal, and odds are, he brought his fucking Xbox with him to "combat". 

 

 

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Gil Bang

Gil Bang 25898

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So my GF has an adult son that served in USAF, and now serves in CA Air National Guard.  God Bless him...he's a smart guy and we need smart guys.  

Back when Afghanistan was going on (and my son was over there, he lost 5 friends in his platoon.  They were in the Stryker in front of his that hit a big fucking IED.

Anyway, there was scuttlebutt of the GF's son's unit being sent from Kadena in Okinawa to Afghanistan.   On one of the rare occasions that my son was able to call me from Afghanistan, I mentioned that there was that possibility.  My kid says "He'll be at Bagram.  They have a fucking Pizza Hut and a Subway, tell her not to worry he'll be fine". 

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Gengs1

Gengs1 2583

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25 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

This fucking guy...he could have just been proud of his service, been proud of being a veteran...serving honorably, etc. 

But no...he has to play it like he's dodging bullets on the regular.    I salute EVERYONE who serves/served, particularly during conflict (and FWIW I never served). 

But come the fuck on.  Dude was in the USAF, so, he was quite likely eating at TGI Friday's on the regular, jacking off to youporn with a good internet signal, and odds are, he brought his fucking Xbox with him to "combat". 

 

 

They all see themselves as the “punisher” comic character, all want be badass and punish people, seen so many with stickers on their cars but they never understand the point the author makes from the comic.

They all want to be seal team six but end up meal team six.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13414

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While the focus has been on the poor MAGA senate candidates, the real doozies definitely appear to be in the house races.  Between stolen valor and the MI guy who previously called for the end of female voters, the gop appear to want to lose the house.

A run of the mill gop candidate could have possibly won these elections easily. Now the window for the gop to win the house is narrowing everyday. 

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Gil Bang

Gil Bang 25898

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7 minutes ago, Gengs1 said:

They all see themselves as the “punisher” comic character, all want be badass and punish people, seen so many with stickers on their cars but they never understand the point the author makes from the comic.

They all want to be seal team six but end up meal team six.

Yeah.  Seriously, what the fuck is wrong with saying "I served my country honorably during Afghanistan, and I'm proud of my service".  Fuck, it would be something to be proud of...If I had done it, I'd damn sure be proud.    But, he's a Trumpkin, so he's got to triple the square footage and play himself off as a guy that ran around the desert with a M4, eating and shitting once a week, and showering twice a quarter.  Because bullshit is their currency.  

An 11,000 SF apartment becomes 30,000 SF, a $5 million dollar golf course is worth $60 million, and a rear-area jerkoff that probably slept in Air Conditioning most nights is the new Audie Murphy 

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