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2022 House elections

Gil Bang

By Gil Bang
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berlinerbaer

berlinerbaer 670

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Posted
On 9/21/2022 at 2:26 PM, Js1 said:

Okay, first off, I never said otherwise.

If Dems are winning R+6 seats on Election Night, the environment was entirely wrong in polling and the Dems kept the House.

We will actually have a fairly decent idea early in the night, depending on how quickly races like NH-01/02 get called, of what the environment is.   

  • NH-01 is EVEN and NH-02 is D+2.  A quick Dem call would mean a pretty good night.  A quick GOP call would be a pretty bad night.  

Same with races like CT-02 and CT-05 (D+3) and the open RI-02 (D+4). 

Don't forget - 2018 looked abysmal for the Dems on Election Night because of the red mirage before mail-in ballot states finished counted.  Something like 4 CA races flipped when all the votes were counted in the end.  Dems also thought they lost the AZ-Sen seat that night, but Sinema prevailed after the mail-in ballots were counted.  We will see this in CA, PA, OR, OH, AZ and NY is notoriously slow to count as well. 

We all remember 2020 as well - Trump was bigly winning on election night in PA, WI and Michigan until everything was counted.

 

6 hours ago, Js1 said:

This is R+3.  Another "slam dunk" district getting triaged. 

Quick question... where are you getting these numbers? I'm assuming they account for redistricting.

I'm asking because 538, which puts the Dems odds of keeping the House at 30%, has NH-01 and NH-02 at 76% and 95% odds of going Dem, respectively. Those don't seem like even seats to me.

 

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Js1

Js1 85112

Posted
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2 minutes ago, berlinerbaer said:

 

Quick question... where are you getting these numbers? I'm assuming they account for redistricting.

I'm asking because 538, which puts the Dems odds of keeping the House at 30%, has NH-01 and NH-02 at 76% and 95% odds of going Dem, respectively. Those don't seem like even seats to me.

 

Cook Political PVI

https://www.cookpolitical.com/cook-pvi/2022-partisan-voting-index/district-map-and-list

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Zonahorn

Zonahorn 8079

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On 9/21/2022 at 12:26 PM, Js1 said:

Okay, first off, I never said otherwise.

If Dems are winning R+6 seats on Election Night, the environment was entirely wrong in polling and the Dems kept the House.

We will actually have a fairly decent idea early in the night, depending on how quickly races like NH-01/02 get called, of what the environment is.   

  • NH-01 is EVEN and NH-02 is D+2.  A quick Dem call would mean a pretty good night.  A quick GOP call would be a pretty bad night.  

Same with races like CT-02 and CT-05 (D+3) and the open RI-02 (D+4). 

Don't forget - 2018 looked abysmal for the Dems on Election Night because of the red mirage before mail-in ballot states finished counted.  Something like 4 CA races flipped when all the votes were counted in the end.  Dems also thought they lost the AZ-Sen seat that night, but Sinema prevailed after the mail-in ballots were counted.  We will see this in CA, PA, OR, OH, AZ and NY is notoriously slow to count as well. 

We all remember 2020 as well - Trump was bigly winning on election night in PA, WI and Michigan until everything was counted.

 

 

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Gengs1

Gengs1 2583

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Classified my ass, soon he will claim he was on Team Seal six and hunted bin laden.

I am betting this dude was somewhere in Middle East sitting behind a computer printing policy reports and taping them on the door entrances or tracking training requirements 

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Sawbonz

Sawbonz 27436

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47 minutes ago, Gengs1 said:

Classified my ass, soon he will claim he was on Team Seal six and hunted bin laden.

I am betting this dude was somewhere in Middle East sitting behind a computer printing policy reports and taping them on the door entrances or tracking training requirements 

I read he was a sky waitress for personnel transports

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Tuco

Tuco 5076

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5 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

I read he was a sky waitress for personnel transports

From an article posted upthread: 

Quote

Rather than deploying to Afghanistan, as he has claimed, the records state that Majewski was based at Kadena Air Base in Japan for much of his active-duty service. He later deployed for six months to Qatar in May 2002, where he helped load and unload planes while serving as a “passenger operations specialist,” the records show.

While based in Qatar, Majewski would land at other air bases to transfer military passengers, medics, supplies, his campaign said. The campaign did not answer a direct question about whether he was ever in Afghanistan.

 

 

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Gengs1

Gengs1 2583

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9 hours ago, tantric superman said:

You say that as if it isn't a better career than any of us have.

What I am saying is if you are going to be deployed to oversees base that Okinawa is a hell of a nice tour and a good location to be. It has beach, nice weather, good food, lax drinking laws, a lot of tourists etc. Now compare that to Afghanistan etc

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Js1

Js1 85112

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Well the Arizona courts and the AG just threw a huge wrench into their midterms with their total abortion ban based on pre-statehood law. 

Arizona politicos believe this may go all the way downballot into county AG races - Arizona is dry af but there’s a blue wave 🌊 coming there.  

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Js1

Js1 85112

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Gengs1 said:

They really need to make sure every one of them that can to vote.

 

I do think it’s BS how many Americans don’t have voting representation. DC, territories, Cherokee nation, etc. 

I could spend my entire life in Texas, born and raised, and have someone who can vote in the House of REPRESENTATIVES on my behalf the entire time but if i decide to move to PR or DC, suddenly my voice is silenced. 

It’s dumb. If you don’t want to give them 2 senators, I get it. But they deserve a voice in the House than can vote. It’s at most a half new votes (USVI, PR, Guam, NMI, DC, Cherokee nation, AS) 

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13414

Posted
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1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Well the Arizona courts and the AG just threw a huge wrench into their midterms with their total abortion ban based on pre-statehood law. 

Arizona politicos believe this may go all the way downballot into county AG races - Arizona is dry af but there’s a blue wave 🌊 coming there.  

The Dobbs decision is looking to have cost the the GOP the senate and possibly the House. Perhaps even a few states. From the political standpoint, we're seeing what happens when the dog catches the car.

Dems need to be sure that they follow the rule that when your enemy is making a mistake, stay out of the way.

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Js1

Js1 85112

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13 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

The Dobbs decision is looking to have cost the the GOP the senate and possibly the House. Perhaps even a few states. From the political standpoint, we're seeing what happens when the dog catches the car.

Dems need to be sure that they follow the rule that when your enemy is making a mistake, stay out of the way.

I certainly don’t endorse prevent defense and calling conservative plays on offense this far out. Pelosi and the Housejust passed a bunch of police funding bills. Further taking away another talking point. Several House Dems have recently been endorsed by the fraternal order of police too. 

Still gotta do things to keep the momentum going. For every good thing the Dems do, the GOP seem to respond by doing something completely stupid and out of touch 

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

The Dobbs decision is looking to have cost the the GOP the senate and possibly the House. Perhaps even a few states. From the political standpoint, we're seeing what happens when the dog catches the car.

Dems need to be sure that they follow the rule that when your enemy is making a mistake, stay out of the way.

Pennsylvania and Arizona should be all but wrapped up for the dems in the senate soon I am hoping.

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Gengs1

Gengs1 2583

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3 hours ago, Js1 said:

I do think it’s BS how many Americans don’t have voting representation. DC, territories, Cherokee nation, etc. 

I could spend my entire life in Texas, born and raised, and have someone who can vote in the House of REPRESENTATIVES on my behalf the entire time but if i decide to move to PR or DC, suddenly my voice is silenced. 

It’s dumb. If you don’t want to give them 2 senators, I get it. But they deserve a voice in the House than can vote. It’s at most a half new votes (USVI, PR, Guam, NMI, DC, Cherokee nation, AS) 

They need fight for that right by the old American tradition of lobbying and getting their peoples to vote.

now I don’t know how they are spread out in the USA but they need to vote, maybe start notifying every member to register to vote etc.

From Wikipedia 

As of 2018, 360,589 people were enrolled in the Cherokee Nation as citizens. Citizens live in every state, with 2018 populations of 240,417 in Oklahoma, 22,124 in California, 18,406 in Texas, 12,734 in Arkansas, 11,014 in Kansas, and less than 10,000 in each other state.[3] By 2021, enrollment reached 400,000, making the Cherokee Nation the second most populous tribe, closely behind the Navajo Nation. About 140,000 citizens live in the Cherokee Nation reservation area.

 

they really could do a lot of damage in Oklahoma if they voted collectively and got most of the eligible people to Vote

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Js1

Js1 85112

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Ann Selzer, one of the best pollsters, has Dems up 46-42 in the GCB

https://www.grinnell.edu/poll/2022-midterms

Ann Selzer was the first to post a Trump +7 Iowa poll that everyone called an outlier. She was the one who nailed Trump’s post Labor Day 2020 surge and had no qualms posting it.

S-tier polling outlet 

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Zonahorn

Zonahorn 8079

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8 hours ago, Js1 said:

Ann Selzer, one of the best pollsters, has Dems up 46-42 in the GCB

https://www.grinnell.edu/poll/2022-midterms

Ann Selzer was the first to post a Trump +7 Iowa poll that everyone called an outlier. She was the one who nailed Trump’s post Labor Day 2020 surge and had no qualms posting it.

S-tier polling outlet 

But Trafalgar says WA senate and NY governor are within a couple points!

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Js1

Js1 85112

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Just now, Zonahorn said:

But Trafalgar says WA senate and NY governor are within a couple points!

Funny enough, they couldn't even get the GOP candidates in Colorado (Gov and Senate) competitive.  It was like Bennett +6 and Polis +9

I really really do not trust Trafalger - polling is expensive and they seem to pump out 3-4 big polls every week in random ass races (NY GOV? WA SEN?) without issue with their very weird methodology. 

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Gil Bang

Gil Bang 25898

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Republican J.R. Majewski has centered his campaign for a competitive Ohio congressional seat around his biography as an Air Force veteran. But one of the big questions that has surfaced is why Majewski was told he could not reenlist in the Air Force after his initial four years were up.

Majewski’s campaign said last week that he was punished and demoted after getting in a “brawl” in an Air Force dormitory in 2001. Military records obtained since then by The Associated Press, however, offer a different account of the circumstances, which military legal experts say would have played a significant role in the decision to bar him from reenlisting. They indicate Majewski’s punishment and demotion were the result of him being stopped for driving drunk on a U.S. air base in Japan in September 2001.

The documents provided to the AP and independently authenticated present yet another instance where the recorded history of Majewski’s service diverges from what he has told voters as he campaigns while using his veteran status as a leading credential.

In a statement, Majewski acknowledged that he was punished for drunken driving, though he didn’t address why his campaign previously said his demotion was the result of a fight.

“This mistake is now more than 20 years old. I’m sure we’ve all done something as young adults that we look back on and wonder ‘what was I thinking?’ and I’m sure our parents and grandparents share these sentiments,” Majewski said.

Since starting his campaign to unseat longtime Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur, Majewski has repeatedly said he was a combat veteran who served a tour of duty under “tough” circumstances in Afghanistan.

His story came under intense scrutiny last week when the AP, citing military documents obtained through public records requests, reported that he did not deploy to Afghanistan as he claimed, but instead spent six months based in Qatar, where he helped load and unload aircraft.

The latest revelation that Majewski was demoted for drunken driving adds another wrinkle. Last week, the AP asked Majewski’s campaign why his military service records showed that he was not allowed to reenlist in the Air Force and left the service after four years at a rank that was one notch above where he started.

At the time, his campaign said in an email that Majewski was “in a fight in the dormitory with another servicemember” which “knocked his rank down.” His campaign added that he later gained some of that rank back.

The personnel records obtained by the AP make no mention of a fight. Instead, they state that Majewski was demoted for drunken driving at Kadena Air Base in Japan on Sept. 8, 2001. And rather than gain his rank back — as Majewski’s campaign said — the records indicated he continued to hold the rank of E-2, one notch above entry level, that he was demoted to for the rest of his active duty.

“When you decided to get behind the wheel of a vehicle after indulging in intoxicating liquor you brought discredit upon yourself, 733rd Air Mobility Squadron, and the Air Force,” the disciplinary records state, referring to the unit Majewski was assigned to at the time. “Further misconduct by you of any type will not be tolerated.”

The three-page document details Majewski’s punishment, which included a reprimand and 30 days of extra duty in addition to the demotion. It bears Majewski’s signature and shows he consulted a lawyer and waived his right to a court-martial. He also waived his right to appeal the punishment and requested that the document not become public, the records show.

In some cases, a DUI can be a career-ending violation in the military. But three days after Majewski was pulled over, the U.S. was suddenly at war following the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Within months, Majewski was reassigned and deployed to Qatar, which served as the staging ground for operations in Afghanistan, records show.

Military records show Majewski’s only deployment was to Qatar. Last Friday, during a news conference, he insisted that he did indeed serve in Afghanistan, though he declined to offer specifics because he said the details were “classified.”

But there is a difference between deploying to a country and touching down there. Majewski previously said he was a “combat veteran” who deployed to Afghanistan, a term that conveys he received orders assigning him to a specific base in the country.

In his statement Wednesday, he said he was aboard “outbound transport flights to forward bases and combat zones throughout the Middle East, including Afghanistan” though he acknowledged that he was stationed in Qatar.

He also described his experience joining the Air Force at the age 20 as fulfilling, yet challenging.

“It was tough work. I am proud of my service and the experiences that made me who I am today, but I have never once claimed to have undergone a ‘tough combat tour’ in Afghanistan or suggested that I was engaged in active firefights.”

Majewski’s campaign has previously promoted him as a “combat veteran.” During an August 2021 interview on the One American Podcast, Majewski said that he had a “tough time in life” while serving a tour of duty in Afghanistan.

Majewski’s claim that he couldn’t discuss his forays to Afghanistan because the details were “classified” was a red flag to those who investigate cases of “stolen valor.”

“The No. 1 trope that comes out of people when they are either fabricating a military record or, in this case, embellishing a record is they fall back to, ‘It’s classified,’” said Ed Caffrey, a former Air Force master sergeant who now investigates “stolen valor” cases and teaches journalism at Eastern New Mexico University.

Even as scrutiny of Majewski intensifies, he has given no indication that he intends to drop out of the race and has continued to campaign.

 

https://www.airforcetimes.com/news/your-air-force/2022/09/28/records-contradict-house-candidates-account-of-military-punishment/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=tw_militarytimes

 

Edited by Gil Bang
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RDCanecutter

RDCanecutter 26282

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If the Captain had liked him, that DUI would have morphed into a week painting rocks outside the HQ and never would have become official.

Either the Captain didn't like him, or this was the third time similar dumbassery took place.

/Speaking as a guy who sat and watched our Captain disappear some charges against a few buffoons on the condition that they would become the First Sergeant's slaves. So that they learn.

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