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Texas A&M Recruiting 2025: The Land of Melk & No Money


texifornia

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Florida strikes me as the right combination of desperate with the financial capability to poach Dillingham. They thought they had the money to fire  Napier + hire Kiffin away from Ole Miss. Dillingham would be much cheaper. 
 

Timeline could be right too. 2 more years of Lagway. Wheels fall off again in 2027. 

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53 minutes ago, Doc Daneeka said:

I get the appeal of more money but at some point a lot of money, even if more is available, is enough, especially if other factors are in favor. 

The other factor is job security. Dilly could probably ride this CFP run for a good ten years at ASU at $6mm/year without being at risk. He’s a native son and they love him. They’re going to be pretty generous with him if they hit any downturns.

Sure, a $12mm/year job seems like the ultimate goal, but those jobs come with very high expectations and short fuse.

Be a coach at ASU for, possibly, the rest of your career at 75% of market rate or take the gamble that you can turn around a big name program but get probably 3 years to do it?

Edited by Xminus6
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1 hour ago, Navin R. Johnson said:

I have a feeling ASU and Leavitt are going to experience the sophomore slump. They won’t have skattebo to mask any deficiencies, and opponents will be up for them.

Thats not a knock against Dillingham, that’s just the way it is.

Will be interesting to see - hell of a difference between coaching as an upstart underdog with nobody expecting you to win vs as the favorite with a target on you. The former frees you up to do shit like call a fake punt on your own 20 or a halfback pass on 4th and 2 with minimal consequence if it doesn’t work. Do that as a favorite and fail and they’ll hang you.

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55 minutes ago, Xminus6 said:

The other factor is job security. Dilly could probably ride this CFP run for a good ten years at ASU at $6mm/year without being at risk. He’s a native son and they love him. They’re going to be pretty generous with him if they hit any downturns.

Sure, a $12mm/year job seems like the ultimate goal, but those jobs come with very high expectations and short fuse.

Be a coach at ASU for, possibly, the rest of your career at 75% of market rate or take the gamble that you can turn around a big name program but get probably 3 years to do it?

I didn't go to McCombs Business or anything, but I feel like if I were already getting more money than I should ever need, I'd start prioritizing happiness. Loving where I am with the prospect of at least a few years of a happy working situation, would carry weight with me. There's also reason to believe he could take that program to fairly frequent contention for the big taco (natty).

Of course, I'm an undriven idiot who would have trouble making myself work at anything once I had a couple of million in the bank. Not exactly the type who rises to the top in the most intense, high money arenas.

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IMO, total available NIL funds will be a key factor for Dilly if he moves on. ASU may be able to pay him as much as any other school, but if they don’t have the NIL that allows him to consistently compete and win at the highest levels it’ll be hard to hold onto him. 
 

For that reason, I think Texas will always be an attractive school for top candidates, and assuming we have competent leadership (big assumption) I doubt we settle on coaches like  Strong and Herman in the future. 

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On 1/5/2025 at 9:38 AM, closetojumping said:

I’m interested in seeing how desperate programs get over the next few years if Dillingham strings a few more winning-to-big-time-winning seasons together.

ASU has money, right? The guy would like to coach there for 40+ years if you believe his interviews. I tend to buy it because ASU to him is like Texas to us. 

So why leave? What if some other place in the Big 2 with money decides to go nuts out of desperation? Say Florida?

I don’t know. I actually buy the idea of that guy sticking to ASU if he keeps winning and has choices. 

Explain to me how he isn't just the next Matt Campbell or PJ Fleck? Put together a good season or two at a small school, gets tons of hype about how he's the next coaching star and going to get poached by a Blue Blood for a huge payday, and then falls back to mediocrity. 

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1 minute ago, Hornlover said:

Explain to me how he isn't just the next Matt Campbell or PJ Fleck? Put together a good season or two at a small school, gets tons of hype about how he's the next coaching star and going to get poached by a Blue Blood for a huge payday, and then falls back to mediocrity. 

He may well be. Or he may not be. Do you know that he is? Predicting the future is difficult. 

One thing is certain, though, and that’s that he hasn’t yet displayed bitchassness tendencies like Campbell. 

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3 minutes ago, Hornlover said:

Explain to me how he isn't just the next Matt Campbell or PJ Fleck? Put together a good season or two at a small school, gets tons of hype about how he's the next coaching star and going to get poached by a Blue Blood for a huge payday, and then falls back to mediocrity. 

At about the same age as Dillingham is now, PJ Fleck was either a GA or the WR Coach at Northern Illinois and Matt Campbell was either in his first or second year as the coach at Toledo.

They are not the same. The best job either one had before their role above was Matt Campbell being Toledo OL coach and OC. Every role Dillingham has ever held at as an actual coach at the college level is better than OC at Toledo minus his one year as QB coach in 2017 at Memphis.

IMG_9746.thumb.jpeg.c904e7507de477e66353c0fc342687da.jpeg

They are not the same.

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4 minutes ago, NoName said:

At about the same age as Dillingham is now, PJ Fleck was either a GA or the WR Coach at Northern Illinois and Matt Campbell was either in his first or second year as the coach at Toledo.

They are not the same. The best job either one had before their role above was Matt Campbell being Toledo OL coach and OC. Every role Dillingham has ever held at as an actual coach at the college level is better than OC at Toledo minus his one year as QB coach in 2017 at Memphis.

IMG_9746.thumb.jpeg.c904e7507de477e66353c0fc342687da.jpeg

They are not the same.

He's the youngest coach in FBS history to get a team bowl eligible. 

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12 minutes ago, NoName said:

At about the same age as Dillingham is now, PJ Fleck was either a GA or the WR Coach at Northern Illinois and Matt Campbell was either in his first or second year as the coach at Toledo.

They are not the same. The best job either one had before their role above was Matt Campbell being Toledo OL coach and OC. Every role Dillingham has ever held at as an actual coach at the college level is better than OC at Toledo minus his one year as QB coach in 2017 at Memphis.

IMG_9746.thumb.jpeg.c904e7507de477e66353c0fc342687da.jpeg

They are not the same.

 

6 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

He's the youngest coach in FBS history to get a team bowl eligible. 

In 2020, at 41 years old, Matt Campbell won the Fiesta Bowl, and finished the season ranked 9 . 
In 2016 at 36 years old Fleck took WMU to 13-1 , a Cotton Bowl win and ended the season ranked 15.
In 2024 at 34 years old, Dillingham went 11-3, lost the Peach Bowl, and will probably end up ranked around 12th or so.

I just don't see much difference.

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7 minutes ago, Hornlover said:

 

In 2020, at 41 years old, Matt Campbell won the Fiesta Bowl, and finished the season ranked 9 . 
In 2016 at 36 years old Fleck took WMU to 13-1 , a Cotton Bowl win and ended the season ranked 15.
In 2024 at 34 years old, Dillingham went 11-3, lost the Peach Bowl, and will probably end up ranked around 12th or so.

I just don't see much difference.

What kind of evidence could you look at and say, “Hey, here’s a difference”?

Edited by Doc Daneeka
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1 minute ago, Hornlover said:

 

In 2020, at 41 years old, Matt Campbell won the Fiesta Bowl, and finished the season ranked 9 . 
In 2016 at 36 years old Fleck took WMU to 13-1 , a Cotton Bowl win and ended the season ranked 15.
In 2024 at 34 years old, Dillingham went 11-3, lost the Peach Bowl, and will probably end up ranked around 12th or so.

I just don't see much difference.

Fleck is at a school more setup than both of those guys in this era. I don't think you can compare much pre infinite portal/NIL to current landscape. 

 

Also you have to add context here....A CFP > NY6/BCS bowl in the hierarchy. 

Campbell 2020 season - His 9th year as a HC. Campbell completely fucked up by not leaving Iowa St when his prospects were the hottest.
Fleck 2016 season was his 4th as a HC but IMO he chose poorly for his level up gig in taking Minnesota job...and not potentially taking something better(can't recall what may have been available at the time.

Dillingham in only his second season as a HC has surpassed those two by being in the CFP. Now the question for him does he make the mistake the above two with regards to staying at your program too long, choosing the wrong next gig, etc.



 

 

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Just now, BurntOrange&White said:

Fleck is at a school more setup than both of those guys in this era. I don't think you can compare much pre infinite portal/NIL to current landscape. 

 

Also you have to add context here....A CFP > NY6/BCS bowl in the hierarchy. 

Campbell 2020 season - His 9th year as a HC. Campbell completely fucked up by not leaving Iowa St when his prospects were the hottest.
Fleck 2016 season was his 4th as a HC but IMO he chose poorly for his level up gig in taking Minnesota job...and not potentially taking something better(can't recall what may have been available at the time.

Dillingham in only his second season as a HC has surpassed those two by being in the CFP. Now the question for him does he make the mistake the above two with regards to staying at your program too long, choosing the wrong next gig, etc.



 

 

Wouldn't Fleck's WMU squad have been in the CFP? They were an undefeated G5.

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1 minute ago, Doc Daneeka said:

What kind of evidence could you look at and say, “Hey, here’s a difference”?

You're right. There's not enough evidence and we can't predict the future. But the odds are more likely that he's just the next Fleck or Campbell, and that he's not Sean McVay or Mike McDaniel.

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Just now, Hornlover said:

You're right. There's not enough evidence and we can't predict the future. But the odds are more likely that he's just the next Fleck or Campbell, and that he's not Sean McVay or Mike McDaniel.

Fair. But the odds were against those guys — and Meyer and whoever else — too. Is it more likely that he’s going to implode than become legendary? Sure. Hell, that’s the way to bet. But that strikes me as more a question of what’s probable in the abstract than whether what he’s done will continue at a trajectory that makes him elite. Absent inherent personality flaws that are a ticking time bomb, I’d say it’s unlikely but still well on the table. 

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19 minutes ago, Hornlover said:

 

In 2020, at 41 years old, Matt Campbell won the Fiesta Bowl, and finished the season ranked 9 . 
In 2016 at 36 years old Fleck took WMU to 13-1 , a Cotton Bowl win and ended the season ranked 15.
In 2024 at 34 years old, Dillingham went 11-3, lost the Peach Bowl, and will probably end up ranked around 12th or so.

I just don't see much difference.

 

8 minutes ago, Hornlover said:

You're right. There's not enough evidence and we can't predict the future. But the odds are more likely that he's just the next Fleck or Campbell, and that he's not Sean McVay or Mike McDaniel.

How many major conference championships have either one of those guys won? How many CFP visits? 

Countering your other dum dum positions on this, what's invalidating about being another Matt Campbell? I don't like the guy, at all, and I think he's a choker. That said, he's winning at a place that has been borderline impossible to win at, and he's had his teams borderline elite at times, including 2020 and 2024. Pointing to Campbell as some notion of failure for a young coach is fucking dumb. 

Also, "the odds are more likely" is a specious bulletin board argument that carries zero weight in a discussion like this. You have no fucking way to calculate odds against infinite variables with any credibility. Work harder at taking your position than trying to build off of that kind of garbage.

Finally, Dillingham has done things sooner and at a higher level, at a program with higher fan affinity, fan affluence, and fan size. What an interested and talented coach can accomplish at Arizona State dwarfs what can be accomplished at ISU or Minnesota (this isn't 1960 in the Twin Cities). 

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9 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

 

How many major conference championships have either one of those guys won? How many CFP visits? 

Countering your other dum dum positions on this, what's invalidating about being another Matt Campbell? I don't like the guy, at all, and I think he's a choker. That said, he's winning at a place that has been borderline impossible to win at, and he's had his teams borderline elite at times, including 2020 and 2024. Pointing to Campbell as some notion of failure for a young coach is fucking dumb. 

Also, "the odds are more likely" is a specious bulletin board argument that carries zero weight in a discussion like this. You have no fucking way to calculate odds against infinite variables with any credibility. Work harder at taking your position than trying to build off of that kind of garbage.

Finally, Dillingham has done things sooner and at a higher level, at a program with higher fan affinity, fan affluence, and fan size. What an interested and talented coach can accomplish at Arizona State dwarfs what can be accomplished at ISU or Minnesota (this isn't 1960 in the Twin Cities). 

The "major conference championship" begat the "CFP visit", which is stil an accomplishment greater than either Fleck or Campbell. 

I'm not saying Campbell or Fleck are failures, but I find them very similar to what Dillingham will probably end up looking like if he decides to stick around Az State. 

Edited by Hornlover
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32 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Fleck is at a school more setup than both of those guys in this era. I don't think you can compare much pre infinite portal/NIL to current landscape. 

 

Also you have to add context here....A CFP > NY6/BCS bowl in the hierarchy. 

Campbell 2020 season - His 9th year as a HC. Campbell completely fucked up by not leaving Iowa St when his prospects were the hottest.
Fleck 2016 season was his 4th as a HC but IMO he chose poorly for his level up gig in taking Minnesota job...and not potentially taking something better(can't recall what may have been available at the time.

Dillingham in only his second season as a HC has surpassed those two by being in the CFP. Now the question for him does he make the mistake the above two with regards to staying at your program too long, choosing the wrong next gig, etc.



 

 

This is an aside to the conversation at hand, but Fleck has been pretty good at Minnesota given it's a very unsexy place to attract top CFB talent (irrespective of the school itself, facilties, etc., which are all really nice). I would think a better program would take a shot on him - not sure what he may want though. He has the best winning percentage at Minny of any coach since WWII, and he's been there eight seasons. 6-0 in bowls is nice, too. He hasn't had outsized success, but that's seems nearly impossible at Minnesota.

Screenshot2025-01-06at11_38_19.thumb.png.76a587b56dac38e10180cf7b4d89c1a6.png

Edited by MuellerHorn
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5 minutes ago, Hornlover said:

The "major conference championship" begat the "CFP visit", which is stil an accomplishment greater than either Fleck or Campbell. 

I'm not saying Campbell or Fleck are failures, but I find them very similar to what Dillingham will probably end up looking like if he decides to stick around Az State. 

That's a totally subjective position, but, hey, aren't they all.

My subjective view is that the dude has shown a ton to support that he could turn into a dominant coach in CFB if he sticks at ASU. My reasons for that are what he's already done, his pedigree, his background with the university and city, the commitment to the program from the university and fanbase, the weakness at the top of a winnable conference, and the access to talent at both the HS and portal levels. To the last point, Phoenix produces some talent these days, SoCal, Denver, Vegas, and Texas are in the vicinity, and the area + coeds is attractive to transfers looking for a change of scenery. 

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14 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

My reasons for that are what he's already done, his pedigree, his background with the university and city, the commitment to the program from the university and fanbase, the weakness at the top of a winnable conference, and the access to talent at both the HS and portal levels. To the last point, Phoenix produces some talent these days, SoCal, Denver, Vegas, and Texas are in the vicinity, and the area + coeds is attractive to transfers looking for a change of scenery. 

Add to that in the NIL era, a city like Phoenix provides many more potential corporate dollars than somewhere like East Lansing or even Gainesville.

Plus, as you mentioned Campbell above, the tenure and requirements of a coach at a traditional "have not" program are much more forgiving and low-pressure than taking a job somewhere like USC or Michigan, or even somewhere that has false expectations like Texas A&M. Those places eat coaches alive. Stability has to be worth something, particularly if a guy is going to become rich either way (and in Dillingham's case, he is at home).

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1 hour ago, Hornlover said:

You're right. There's not enough evidence and we can't predict the future. But the odds are more likely that he's just the next Fleck or Campbell, and that he's not Sean McVay or Mike McDaniel.

Don't you find it odd that to look for "comparisons" you have to select two NFL coaches, and not college coaches? Why can't you find us a real apples to apples comparison for the achievements of Dillingham. Oh wait...

Edited by SydneyCarton
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41 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Don't you find it odd that to look for "comparisons" you have to select two NFL coaches, and not college coaches? Why can't you find us a real apples to apples comparison for the achievements of Dillingham. Oh wait...

Urban Meyer would have been a good comparison too, but that's mostly my point. Young guys that look promising early on at non-traditional powerhouse schools need to either move on and up to Blue Bloods or the NFL, or they can stick at their current school and have occasional good seasons but fairly quickly lose their luster. 

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20 minutes ago, Hornlover said:

Urban Meyer would have been a good comparison too, but that's mostly my point. Young guys that look promising early on at non-traditional powerhouse schools need to either move on and up to Blue Bloods or the NFL, or they can stick at their current school and have occasional good seasons but fairly quickly lose their luster. 

It’s hard to quantify “losing their luster,” although I agree that in the current era of college football, big programs balk at hiring people like Campbell or Fleck. That may be to their detriment because it’s not like hiring the hot hand is a more likely path to success.  
 

The fact is that a career 8-5 coach at Iowa State is a damn good coach. The may be on the Ferentz program.  Which you can laugh at the Hawkeyes’ miserable offense (and I do) but in terms of W-L since 2001 Iowa quite literally has probably enjoyed the best case scenario for them. 

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5 minutes ago, BornAndRaised said:

I think this is a pretty good hire for them?

 

Those connections in Lubbock are going to pay off big time. 

It's an associate personnel position. If he was hired at Texas, I'd think "huh, okay, let's see how it goes." So I wouldn't place it firmly in the "good hire" column and more in the "show me" column, akin to where many of us put Baker. In that same light, there were bigger names to hire, depending upon what they are going to ask of the position. 

With ATM being trapped in the recruitocosm, they should always be looking at guys with big time connections in places like Houston, NOLA, Atlanta, DFW and Memphis before anyone else with a high school coaching background.

 

 

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4 hours ago, Doc Daneeka said:

He may well be. Or he may not be. Do you know that he is? Predicting the future is difficult. 

One thing is certain, though, and that’s that he hasn’t yet displayed bitchassness tendencies like Campbell. 

His players have so I suspect he’s got some bitchassness in him too.

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45 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Those connections in Lubbock are going to pay off big time. 

It's an associate personnel position. If he was hired at Texas, I'd think "huh, okay, let's see how it goes." So I wouldn't place it firmly in the "good hire" column and more in the "show me" column, akin to where many of us put Baker. In that same light, there were bigger names to hire, depending upon what they are going to ask of the position. 

With ATM being trapped in the recruitocosm, they should always be looking at guys with big time connections in places like Houston, NOLA, Atlanta, DFW and Memphis before anyone else with a high school coaching background.

 

 

r/funny - NOW THAT'S A NAME I HAVEN'T HEARD IN A LONG TIME
 
 
Edited by GlenFromTheMailRoom
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1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

Those connections in Lubbock are going to pay off big time. 

It's an associate personnel position. If he was hired at Texas, I'd think "huh, okay, let's see how it goes." So I wouldn't place it firmly in the "good hire" column and more in the "show me" column, akin to where many of us put Baker. In that same light, there were bigger names to hire, depending upon what they are going to ask of the position. 

With ATM being trapped in the recruitocosm, they should always be looking at guys with big time connections in places like Houston, NOLA, Atlanta, DFW and Memphis before anyone else with a high school coaching background.

 

 

I swear he resigned as the Head Coach at Lubbock Coronado after the 2023 season if I'm not mistaken (my daughter went to school there). He may have been fired, as he had a losing record. I assume he will be much better in his new role in player personnel, because he sucked at coaching football at Coronado

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38 minutes ago, BurntOrangeCrush said:

I swear he resigned as the Head Coach at Lubbock Coronado after the 2023 season if I'm not mistaken (my daughter went to school there). He may have been fired, as he had a losing record. I assume he will be much better in his new role in player personnel, because he sucked at coaching football at Coronado

Does he have swag?

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8 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Fleck is at a school more setup than both of those guys in this era. I don't think you can compare much pre infinite portal/NIL to current landscape. 

 

Also you have to add context here....A CFP > NY6/BCS bowl in the hierarchy. 

Campbell 2020 season - His 9th year as a HC. Campbell completely fucked up by not leaving Iowa St when his prospects were the hottest.
Fleck 2016 season was his 4th as a HC but IMO he chose poorly for his level up gig in taking Minnesota job...and not potentially taking something better(can't recall what may have been available at the time.

Dillingham in only his second season as a HC has surpassed those two by being in the CFP. Now the question for him does he make the mistake the above two with regards to staying at your program too long, choosing the wrong next gig, etc.

 

8 hours ago, texifornia said:

Wouldn't Fleck's WMU squad have been in the CFP? They were an undefeated G5.

 

7 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Doesn't matter, 12 team format didn't exist. They weren't even close to being in the 4 team format with 15 being their highest ranking of the year.

the fact that the 12 team format didn't exist is why you can't say that a CFP appearance is better than a NY6 win. Iowa State certainly would have made the playoffs in 2020, as the selection committee had them 6th the second to last week, and 10 the week they selected the four CFP participants. And Fleck's team likely would have made the playoffs in 2016 if the current rules were applied. So all three teams we are discussing would have made the CFP. Iowa State and WM would not have earned buys like Arizona State did this year.

I agree with your premise that Dillingham has a more polished resume and will be better positioned to succeed long-term. But I'm not sure you can definitively say this year's Arizona State season was more impressive than the 2016 WM or 2020 Iowa State seasons. 

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5 hours ago, closetojumping said:

Those connections in Lubbock are going to pay off big time. 

 

 

 

Don't they always?

I remember some asshole saying the Big1 12 road runs through Lubbock (which, contrary to Mac Davis, is happiness in the rear view mirror).

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11 hours ago, NoName said:

At about the same age as Dillingham is now, PJ Fleck was either a GA or the WR Coach at Northern Illinois and Matt Campbell was either in his first or second year as the coach at Toledo.

They are not the same. The best job either one had before their role above was Matt Campbell being Toledo OL coach and OC. Every role Dillingham has ever held at as an actual coach at the college level is better than OC at Toledo minus his one year as QB coach in 2017 at Memphis.

IMG_9746.thumb.jpeg.c904e7507de477e66353c0fc342687da.jpeg

They are not the same.

Dillingham is exactly one month younger than me. According to this timeline, he was the QB coach for his high school when he was a high school senior ('07-08). 

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2 minutes ago, TheBryMan81 said:

Dillingham is exactly one month younger than me. According to this timeline, he was the QB coach for his high school when he was a high school senior ('07-08). 

Keep reading that Wikipedia article:

Dillingham began coaching at age 17 after he tore his ACL during his senior year.[1] He started working with the junior varsity team at Chaparral High School before being promoted to offensive coordinator of the varsity team at 21 years old.[2] While coaching at Chaparral, he went to Arizona State University, graduating in 2012 with a degree in interdisciplinary studies. He was hired as an offensive assistant at Arizona State in 2014 under offensive coordinator Mike Norvell, whom he met while coaching at Chaparral.

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6 minutes ago, texifornia said:

Keep reading that Wikipedia article:

Dillingham began coaching at age 17 after he tore his ACL during his senior year.[1] He started working with the junior varsity team at Chaparral High School before being promoted to offensive coordinator of the varsity team at 21 years old.[2] While coaching at Chaparral, he went to Arizona State University, graduating in 2012 with a degree in interdisciplinary studies. He was hired as an offensive assistant at Arizona State in 2014 under offensive coordinator Mike Norvell, whom he met while coaching at Chaparral.

I didn't actually go to the article.... That makes much more sense.

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