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Week One College Football Viewing Guide

BigOrange1

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With all due respect to Week 0 (and with respect to @Macanudo and @closetojumping for stealing their bit), the 2022 college football season truly kicks off this week. Here are the games I feel are worth keeping an eye on:

Thursday, September 1st
Central Michigan @ #12 Oklahoma State - 6:00pm, FS1
Oklahoma State figures to be a major factor in the Big 12 title race this season.  Central Michigan had a very nice 9-4 season last year.  OSU is a 21 point favorite.

West Virginia @ #17 Pittsburgh - 6:00, ESPN
The return of the Backyard Brawl!  Due to West Virginia’s move to the Big 12, this game hasn’t been played since 2011.  Despite losing Kenny Pickett and Jordan Addison (and Brennan Marion), Pitt is a 7 point favorite.  JT Daniels is now the QB for WVU.

Penn State @ Purdue - 7:00, FOX
I’m not going to pretend I know a lot about these teams, but Jeff Brohm has done a good job at Purdue and there are some preseason prognosticators who are bullish on Penn State this year.  Purdue is a Thursday night home dog (I don’t think this means as much as it did 10-15 years ago) as Penn State is favored by 3.

Friday, September 2nd
Temple @ Duke - 6:30, ACCN
This isn’t anything special, but Stan Drayton’s debut as head coach of Temple deserves a passing mention on this board.  Duke is favored by 7.

Illinois @ Indiana - 7:00, FS1
Nothing special, but it's a conference game taking place on a night where not a lot of exciting games are happening.  Indiana is a 3 point home favorite.

TCU @ Colorado - 9:00, ESPN
Again, nothing special but it's a conference foe opening on the road against a Power 5 opponent.  It's also the beginning of the Sonny Dykes era at TCU, which is favored by 10.5 on the road.

Saturday, September 3rd
*Unfortunately, none of the 11:00am games on Saturday are terribly appealing.  This will be a good time to make sure you’re fully stocked up on beer and to get the smoker going.  I may check in on the aggy game (11:00am, SECN) to see how Evan Stewart’s blocking looks.*

North Carolina @ Appalachian State - 11:00am, ESPNU
This one could be worth checking out just for the atmosphere alone.  App State sold out their season tickets for the first time in school history, and the primary factor in that was the visit from UNC.  Carolina’s season opening win against FAMU was fairly meh, so maybe this is a spot where we can see the home team pull off an upset.  Carolina is only a 2 point favorite.

#23 Cincinnati @ #19 Arkansas - 2:30, ESPN
This is where the day starts to take off.  Both of these teams are coming off successful 2021 campaigns.  Cincinnati broke through and made the CFP, while Arkansas went 9-4 in Sam Pittman’s second year.  Cincinnati will be replacing Desmond Ridder.  Arkansas is a 6 point favorite.

#11 Oregon vs. #3 Georgia (in Atlanta) - 2:30, ABC
Dan Lanning makes his head coaching debut against the team he helped lead to a national championship last season as its defensive coordinator.  Can’t really say that I think Oregon has much of a shot here, but I didn’t give them any chance on the road against Ohio State last year and they won that one, so who knows.  Georgia is favored by 17.5.

#24 Houston @ UTSA - 2:30, CBSSN
Houston has gotten some hype as a G5 team who could possibly run the table and be in playoff contention.  UTSA is our week 3 opponent.  Definitely a game worth keeping an eye on during breaks in the two games listed immediately above.  Houston is a 4 point favorite.

#7 Utah @ Florida - 6:00, ESPN
I think Utah is going to be one of the best teams in the country and Cam Rising will be one of the top QB’s in college football this year.  This will be a potential showcase game for them.  On the other side of things, this is the Florida head coaching debut for Billy Napier.  Utah is favored by 2.5.

#5 Notre Dame @ #2 Ohio State - 6:30, ABC
This is the marquee game of week 1.  Marcus Freeman makes his head coaching debut against his Alma Mater.  Ohio State is loaded this year and could have the best offense in the country.  I’m not sure how competitive the game will be (Ohio State is favored by 17), but tuning in at the beginning and seeing all the pomp and circumstance surrounding this game should really bring home the fact that college football season is back.

SMU @ North Texas - 6:30, CBSSN
The debut of Thomas J. Herman as an analyst!

UL Monroe @ Texas - 7:00, LHN
The beginning of the Quinn Ewers era!  This should be a beat down (we’re a 38.5 point favorite) and hopefully we see multiple young players flash.  Also no injuries.

Boise State @ Oregon State - 9:30, ESPN
The season debut of Pac 12 After Dark.  One last chance to chase your gambling losses for the day.  Should be a competitive game as Oregon State is just a 3 point favorite.

Sunday, September 4th
Florida State @ LSU - 6:30 ABC
Brian Kelly’s debut as LSU coach.  He’s a clown and the fit feels weird, but he can coach.  Florida State had a glorified scrimmage against Duquesne yesterday.  This is an interesting game, enhanced by the fact that it's the only game of the day.  LSU is favored by 3.

Monday, September 5th
#4 Clemson @ Georgia Tech - 7:00 ESPN
The final game of the long kickoff weekend.  A #4 ranking for Clemson feels a bit optimistic to me, but that shouldn’t show against hapless Georgia Tech.  Honestly, this is a game you could skip entirely if it was taking place on Saturday, but as the only game of the day, we all know we’ll be watching.

That’s it for week one.  Is there anything I missed?
 

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LTtxfan

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8 minutes ago, BigOrange1 said:

Monday, September 5th

#4 Clemson @ Georgia Tech - 7:00 ESPN
The final game of the long kickoff weekend.  A #4 ranking for Clemson feels a bit optimistic to me, but that shouldn’t show against hapless Georgia Tech.  Honestly, this is a game you could skip entirely if it was taking place on Saturday, but as the only game of the day, we all know we’ll be watching.

That’s it for week one.  Is there anything I missed?
 

Only thing interesting here is how much Cade Klubnik plays...

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closetojumping

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Thursday night presents an interesting group of match-ups as a preamble for the weekend, which is nice. I've added my thoughts the games the OP called out.

Central Michigan @ Oklahoma State - Okie State is basically the belle of the Big 12 ball according to the preseason media pundits. It's interesting, because OSU returns only 10 starters, including just 4 on defense. Oliver isn't counted in that group and he's a stud, so it might as well be 5 on D. Still Jim Knowles is gone and Mason replaces him, so there will be at least a few transition issues. Sanders is a turnover machine, but Gundy manages him well and he's an upperclassman now. They have to replace Warren and their #1 WR too, so there's work to be done on offense. Central Michigan embarrassed OSU in 2016 in their last meeting. OSU is favored by 20.5. I don't see it. CMU was good last year and won their bowl, and they return most of their offense. I think this will be a sneaky good game and it is relevant to us. @'stache or any other OSU fans with an opinion on their team this year.

WVU @ Pitt - Pitt is lazily overranked at #17 in the AP. They're a prime candidate to be one of the first ranked teams going down this season. They lost Pickett and picked up Slovis, and they return their entire OL. Sounds great, but they lost Whipple and Addison in addition to Pickett and I have a hard time believing they'll just "click" the way they did last season. Pitt's defense also returns a bunch, including several All ACC performers. Still, the offense is what made that team go last season. WVU is always a mess on defense, but they do bring back 5 starters on that side. WVU picked up JT Daniels, who seems to have been highly overrated as a 5 star and he's also made of glass. Still, the dude has a whip and the entire OL also returns for WVU. Pitt is giving 7.5 at home and I'd take WVU all day long if I were in Vegas. This one also has implications for UT and should be a good watch. 

Penn State @ Purdue - If Purdue wins this game, they are immediately the favorite to win the Big 10 West and play in the conference title game. They miss OSU, Michigan and MSU from the Big 10 East this year. Purdue brings back a ton, including probably the 2nd best QB in the conference in Aiden O'Connell. Also, they have King Doerue from somewhere in the Texas pandhandle. Purdue returns a ton on a good defense too. Somehow PSU is favored in this game, on the road, against a team returning 16 starters. PSU lost tons of talent on defense and returns only 4 starters on that side. On offense, they return Sean Clifford and I am not sure that is a good thing. They had significant losses on the OL and Purdue's best unit is their DL. Give me Purdue to win outright.

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texifornia

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I'll be attending NC State @ ECU with a mixed group of fans. VERY excited for the tailgate, even if it's a nooner. Both fanbases are amped up for this one.

The Pack is getting some mid-level Playoff hype in a down ACC with a very experienced team and a solid coach in Dan Doeren. Can they win the conference for the first time since 1979 (8th total) and make some national noise?

They start at ECU, a fanbase that considers them their biggest rival (a lot like a G5 version of Tech for UT) and, as Texas baseball fans know, shows up and gets loud for big games. State to win, but it'll be much closer than a neutral site equivalent on this game would be.

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'stache

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1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

Thursday night presents an interesting group of match-ups as a preamble for the weekend, which is nice. I've added my thoughts the games the OP called out.

Central Michigan @ Oklahoma State - Okie State is basically the belle of the Big 12 ball according to the preseason media pundits. It's interesting, because OSU returns only 10 starters, including just 4 on defense. Oliver isn't counted in that group and he's a stud, so it might as well be 5 on D. Still Jim Knowles is gone and Mason replaces him, so there will be at least a few transition issues. Sanders is a turnover machine, but Gundy manages him well and he's an upperclassman now. They have to replace Warren and their #1 WR too, so there's work to be done on offense. Central Michigan embarrassed OSU in 2016 in their last meeting. OSU is favored by 20.5. I don't see it. CMU was good last year and won their bowl, and they return most of their offense. I think this will be a sneaky good game and it is relevant to us. @'stache or any other OSU fans with an opinion on their team this year.

WVU @ Pitt - Pitt is lazily overranked at #17 in the AP. They're a prime candidate to be one of the first ranked teams going down this season. They lost Pickett and picked up Slovis, and they return their entire OL. Sounds great, but they lost Whipple and Addison in addition to Pickett and I have a hard time believing they'll just "click" the way they did last season. Pitt's defense also returns a bunch, including several All ACC performers. Still, the offense is what made that team go last season. WVU is always a mess on defense, but they do bring back 5 starters on that side. WVU picked up JT Daniels, who seems to have been highly overrated as a 5 star and he's also made of glass. Still, the dude has a whip and the entire OL also returns for WVU. Pitt is giving 7.5 at home and I'd take WVU all day long if I were in Vegas. This one also has implications for UT and should be a good watch. 

Penn State @ Purdue - If Purdue wins this game, they are immediately the favorite to win the Big 10 West and play in the conference title game. They miss OSU, Michigan and MSU from the Big 10 East this year. Purdue brings back a ton, including probably the 2nd best QB in the conference in Aiden O'Connell. Also, they have King Doerue from somewhere in the Texas pandhandle. Purdue returns a ton on a good defense too. Somehow PSU is favored in this game, on the road, against a team returning 16 starters. PSU lost tons of talent on defense and returns only 4 starters on that side. On offense, they return Sean Clifford and I am not sure that is a good thing. They had significant losses on the OL and Purdue's best unit is their DL. Give me Purdue to win outright.

I think I read that we return 12 starters, and yeah, Oliver is a stud. We also get Trace Ford back on defense who has had season ending injuries the last two years and reports are that he's performing as he was prior to the injuries. We started last season with a bunch of hurt WR and OL. We're doing pretty good so far in those positions thus far. Sanders only struggles when we don't protect him, he's otherwise a good game manager whose capable of big plays, especially with his legs. He also did pretty well with turnovers outside both Baylor games, which were horrific. Another year of off-season and you have to expect he's getting smarter with the ball and we should be able to protect him better. I think we're good on RB and WR replacements. Defensively we're about as deep as we've ever been. I'm not sure we're the "belle" of any balls, I didn't watch Gameday this weekend but I read nobody chose us to win the league, and that the predictions were OU, Texas, Baylor, and someone said TCU came up? But not us. I think most people think we're pretty good but that we're "still Oklahoma State." I don't fault anyone for that, we always find ways to fuck it up in heartbreaking fashion. It won't be against CMU though. I think we win big.

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45 minutes ago, texifornia said:

I'll be attending NC State @ ECU with a mixed group of fans. VERY excited for the tailgate, even if it's a nooner. Both fanbases are amped up for this one.

The Pack is getting some mid-level Playoff hype in a down ACC with a very experienced team and a solid coach in Dan Doeren. Can they win the conference for the first time in their history and make some national noise?

They start at ECU, a fanbase that considers them their biggest rival (a lot like a G5 version of Tech for UT) and, as Texas baseball fans know, shows up and gets loud for big games. State to win, but it'll be much closer than a neutral site equivalent on this game would be.

welcome to the jungle

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Valmy77

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54 minutes ago, texifornia said:

The Pack is getting some mid-level Playoff hype in a down ACC with a very experienced team and a solid coach in Dan Doeren. Can they win the conference for the first time in their history and make some national noise?

First time? I mean it has been a while and all but last I checked the 20th century still counted.

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1 hour ago, texifornia said:

I'll be attending NC State @ ECU with a mixed group of fans. VERY excited for the tailgate, even if it's a nooner. Both fanbases are amped up for this one.

The Pack is getting some mid-level Playoff hype in a down ACC with a very experienced team and a solid coach in Dan Doeren. Can they win the conference for the first time since 1979 (8th total) and make some national noise?

They start at ECU, a fanbase that considers them their biggest rival (a lot like a G5 version of Tech for UT) and, as Texas baseball fans know, shows up and gets loud for big games. State to win, but it'll be much closer than a neutral site equivalent on this game would be.

NCState, Bama, Ohio State and Oklahoma State are my four picks for the CFP. NC State returns a lot and I think they'll beat Clemson. I think they'll crush the souls of ECU and beat them by 30.

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1 hour ago, 'stache said:

I read nobody (on Gameday) chose us to win B12, and predictions were OU, Texas, Baylor, and  TCU came up? But not us. People think we're pretty good but we're "still Oklahoma State." I don't fault anyone for that, we always find ways to fuck it up in heartbreaking fashion. It won't be against CMU though. I think we win big.

On3 National guy (Mike Huguenin) picked okie lite to win B12 Championship.  Some others have okie lite in B12 Championship game vs either baylor or blOU.

 

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11 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

NCState, Bama, Ohio State and Oklahoma State are my four picks for the CFP. NC State returns a lot and I think they'll beat Clemson. I think they'll crush the souls of ECU and beat them by 30.

OK State?? Bold pick. Didn't they lose most of their stud defense and their DC?

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2 minutes ago, Tex-19 said:

OK State?? Bold pick. Didn't they lose most of their stud defense and their DC?

They lost their stud LB and some other talent and the DC, but they return half the defense and several stud DLs. 

Regarding the CFP, Georgia and Clemson are hot picks for people, mostly due to sloth. Bennett is a bug, not a feature, for Georgia and they also lost 15 guys to the NFL draft and their best WR to Bama. Clemson has a terrible QB and a mediocre offense overall. They replace both coordinators. 

So if those two teams don't make it, who does? I think NC State has everything they need and a favorable schedule. That leaves the final slot. ND? No. OU? Lol. ATM? LMFAO. That means things are wide open. I picked a team in Oklahoma State with a favorable schedule, upperclassmen at key spots, and generally speaking, the requisite talent. Not an obvious pick, but I don't have to squint to see a way into the CFP for them.

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LTtxfan

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1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

I picked a team in Oklahoma State with a favorable schedule, upperclassmen at key spots, & generally speaking, the requisite talent. Not an obvious pick, but I don't have to squint to see a way into the CFP for them.

Just an fyi for folks that may have missed it, Gundy is making Derek Mason run Jim Knowles  defensive scheme so the transition should go more easily for okie lite.  Their damn defensive ends are great, and some really talented 2021 injured defensive player is returning this season too.  

Ferk

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Tex-19

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1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

They lost their stud LB and some other talent and the DC, but they return half the defense and several stud DLs. 

Regarding the CFP, Georgia and Clemson are hot picks for people, mostly due to sloth. Bennett is a bug, not a feature, for Georgia and they also lost 15 guys to the NFL draft and their best WR to Bama. Clemson has a terrible QB and a mediocre offense overall. They replace both coordinators. 

So if those two teams don't make it, who does? I think NC State has everything they need and a favorable schedule. That leaves the final slot. ND? No. OU? Lol. ATM? LMFAO. That means things are wide open. I picked a team in Oklahoma State with a favorable schedule, upperclassmen at key spots, and generally speaking, the requisite talent. Not an obvious pick, but I don't have to squint to see a way into the CFP for them.

Just googled it and looks they return 5 starters on defense, 7 on offense. Basically return the DL and nothing else. Could easily see a big dropoff but maybe not. That Mason hire was a good replacement.

UGA's schedule is soft af. They'll still have plenty of talent on D with elite coaching on that side, and the O is good enough for them to run the regular season schedule (Stetson game managing, insane TE room, good running game is all they need imo). I don't see them as #1 again but I do see them getting in. Agree that the 4th playoff spot is totally up for grabs.

Just for kicks, returning starters for some other Big 12 teams (per Athlon):

OU - 5 returning on O, 4 on D

Baylor - 7 and 7

ISU - only 5 and 3 

KSU - 6 and 6

Texas - 6 and 6

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4 minutes ago, ClubWhatever said:

I would be near ESPNU watching/streaming ability just in case.   An App State win in this one would bring the house down.   Like us, UNC looks talented but very young.  A WTF game or two is lurking in their schedule.

That's clearly the best game, but typically there's at least one banger in the early week one slot, if not several 

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7 minutes ago, ClubWhatever said:

I would be near ESPNU watching/streaming ability just in case.   An App State win in this one would bring the house down.   Like us, UNC looks talented but very young.  A WTF game or two is lurking in their schedule.

 

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8 minutes ago, Tex-19 said:

Just googled it and looks they return 5 starters on defense, 7 on offense. Basically return the DL and nothing else. Could easily see a big dropoff but maybe not. That Mason hire was a good replacement.

UGA's schedule is soft af. They'll still have plenty of talent on D with elite coaching on that side, and the O is good enough for them to run the regular season schedule (Stetson game managing, insane TE room, good running game is all they need imo). I don't see them as #1 again but I do see them getting in. Agree that the 4th playoff spot is totally up for grabs.

Just for kicks, returning starters for some other Big 12 teams (per Athlon):

OU - 5 returning on O, 4 on D

Baylor - 7 and 7

ISU - only 5 and 3 

KSU - 6 and 6

Texas - 6 and 6

I don't think returning starters is the end-all, be-all for fielding a quality team, but of course it matters. That considered, Georgia returns just 3 on defense. I have a hard time taking them seriously this season as a playoff contender. They've got a guy that is worse than a JAG at QB. He doesn't have the same defense to fall back on in order to just be a game manager. Their offense is going to have to get out and score on some folks. 

I also don't think their schedule is that mediocre. It's not crazy, but they play Oregon to open, and Auburn is a rivalry game for both schools. MSU is a good team in the west too. I think they lose to Oregon on Saturday and everyone acts shocked. Oregon returns their OL and a ton of talent. Bo Nix is a terrrible idiot, so that's perhaps the biggest problem, but the HC knows Georgia better than anyone and he'll have that team prepared. One of Kentucky, Tennessee, and South Carolina will beat Georgia. They're all good teams and each of their games against Georgia will be their Super Bowl. That's at least two losses before playing in the CCG, should they make it that far. I think UGa goes 9-3 before bowling this season, but, hey, I'm wrong a lot. We'll see.

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52 minutes ago, texifornia said:

I just checked the TV schedule - seems weird isn't Fox doing a Big Noon Saturday game to counter ESPN's Big Noon Carolina P5vsG5 Rivalries. Instead FS1 has... South Dakota State at Iowa.

I noticed that too watching the Corn vs NWstern game on Saturday. They were showing Big Noon Kickoff at Bama vs Texas and Corn vs OU Sucks but omitted week 1.

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closetojumping

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I guess I'll use this thread to talk to myself about games this weekend. Discussed Thursday yesterday, how about Friday and Saturday games before 2pm for today's musings? Cool.

On Friday, Illinois @ Indiana is an interesting game. For whatever reason, Indiana is favored at home in this game. I actually watched the Illinois/Wyoming game for longish stretches, not sure who else here did as well. Illinois looks like a typical Bielema team when they're good - methodical running game with a strong OL, low-risk passing game designed for breaks between rushes, and a strong and physical defense, if lacking in speed. They are not going to keep up with anyone in a shootout, although Devito could probably do so from the passing perspective. Their goal is to get on top of the opponent and then smother them angrily. Sort of the way I assume Bielema mates with the other gorillas in his troop. Indiana returns virtually nothing on offense off of a team that finished 2-10. They're tailor-made to be a loser against Illinois. Give me Illinois 38 - Indiana 10.

The other game that night that carries some interest for me is TCU @ Colorado. Colorado returns 3 on offense, 5 on defense, and they are coached by Karl Dorrell, who's main talent appears to be showing up for interviews for jobs that no one else vaguely qualified for wants. TCU actually returns plenty, including the QB, the best WR unit in the Big 12, an NFL draft pick at LT, and most of their defense. Jared Wiley will be interesting to watch as well. I assume TCU will beat the absolute shit out of CU in Boulder and if they don't, figuring out why will be fun. Give me TCU 45 - CU 17.

Saturday Morning Games:

Rutgers @ BC - I assume that Rutgers is going to be improving under Schiano, and the offense might actually be fun to watch after being a dumpster fire last season. They have a young DT QB, Wimsatt, who is rumored to have displaced the returning 2 year starter at QB. They have a guy from the Iron Islands (What is dead may never die!) at WR named Aron Cruickshank. I expect him to straight up murder someone during the game. They also brought in legit standout transfer Taj Harris from Syracuse at WR. They have multiple former starting OLs that have transferred in, including Curtis Dunlap (Minn) who was coming to Texas before the Pancake Factory changed the landscape. Defense is slim pickings outside of a fully returning secondary. They were last in the Big 10 in sacks last year, amassing 6 in 9 games. Maybe losing the entirety of the front 7 is a good thing? BC is another program that is allegedly on the upswing with Jeff Hafley coaching them and considered a rising talent. The future NFL QB returns (Jurkovec), as does the entire WR starting unit and much of the defense. This game could be sneaky good or could be the most boring shit on TV that can still be called college football, largely due to the approaches of both conservative HCs. I'm taking BC 31 - Rutgers 28. @George Clooney if he's still around and has thoughts on his Scarlet Knights.

Sam Houston @ Texas A&M - There are all kinds of obvious reasons why this will be interesting to watch, from former UT guys on the SHSU roster all the way over to seeing if Haynes King can survive first contact. I don't need a ton of reasons to gladly watch this game, but I am also interested in seeing the ATM rotations and how many freshmen get looks in the first half. I expect Fisher to be freewheeling with his playcalling in this game, so Stewart is likely to put up big numbers and tell us in social media that he told us so. That's Fisher's MO - act like you have a pair of balls that aren't shriveled up inside you against the Sisters of the Poor and then hide under the bed and plug your ears when the big boys come knocking. TAMU 52 - SHSU 6. @Hiphopopotamos in case he has a real take on this game with his SHSU team. Also, I thought @bizzle was due for his annual paean to Jimbo Fisher by now.

North Carolina @ App State - Mack Brown is already telling people that Drake Maye is better than Sam Howell. App State is the trendy home upset pick. UNC returns a ton on defense and the Chizman is there to coach them up. Maye has talented WRs to throw to and UNC has plenty of talent overall. App State has Chase Brice shooting bb's for them and they also return a healthy chunk of their defense. I'm all-in on the ButterTeeth Redemption Tour of 2022, UNC 42 - App State 20.

Southeast Missouri State @ Iowa State - This game is on ESPN+ and starts at 1pm. I will probably watch the second quarter of this game waiting for 2:30 games to get going. Who gives a shit about this game? Well, almost no one. That said, Matt Campbell has a pathological need to shit himself and start slinging poo at everyone nearby in any game that kicks off before the 3rd week of September. Iowa State should beat this team by 50 points. I'm interested in seeing how ISU looks. I've heard Dave Archer hyping Dekkers as basically better than Brock Purdy when talking on XM 84. Right. This is the kind of team that Matt Campbell loves to coach as there are zero expectations for this season nationally. ISU isn't even an "others receiving votes" team with the AP poll. Last year, ISU opened with another bold blowout against an FCS team by pummeling Northern Iowa 16-10 before their annual bedshitting against Iowa the following week. I'm picking them to break the trend and beat SEMSU, 41-7. @Al_4_ISU or any other random ISU fan that has actual thoughts on their team this year.

Some other poor bastard can pontificate about Michigan's worst non-con in the P5, that they fucking engineered, btw, and their beatdown of CSU at 11am. I believe @texifornia already attempted to make the NCSU/ECU match-up sound compelling.

 

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Wulaw Horn

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My favorite play of the week was a parlay on Carolina and the over 56, so from your lips to God's ears on the buttertooth redemption tour score.  

UNC defense looked absolute shit against a shitty team last week.  Be interesting to see if they get it turned around this week in week 2. 

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29 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Southeast Missouri State @ Iowa State - This game is on ESPN+ and starts at 1pm. I will probably watch the second quarter of this game waiting for 2:30 games to get going. Who gives a shit about this game? Well, almost no one. That said, Matt Campbell has a pathological need to shit himself and start slinging poo at everyone nearby in any game that kicks off before the 3rd week of September. Iowa State should beat this team by 50 points. I'm interested in seeing how ISU looks. I've heard Dave Archer hyping Dekkers as basically better than Brock Purdy when talking on XM 84. Right. This is the kind of team that Matt Campbell loves to coach as there are zero expectations for this season nationally. ISU isn't even an "others receiving votes" team with the AP poll. Last year, ISU opened with another bold blowout against an FCS team by pummeling Northern Iowa 16-10 before their annual bedshitting against Iowa the following week. I'm picking them to break the trend and beat SEMSU, 41-7. @Al_4_ISU or any other random ISU fan that has actual thoughts on their team this year.

 

 

Truer words have rarely been typed on these pages.

The spread is SEMO +37.5.  I would bet a human life on them covering.

Which means ISU will actually look decent before having some quasi-impossible bed shitting next weekend in Iowa City.  

It's hard to tell if Campbell is ass against FCS schools in particular, or just against other schools from Iowa.  If completed, this will be the first time at ISU he's played a whole game against an FCS school that wasn't from Iowa.  We had South Dakota State on the 2018 schedule, and scored on the second offensive play of the game before a lightning storm rolled up and the game was canceled and never replayed.

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Al_4_ISU

Al_4_ISU 12409

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Posted
22 hours ago, texifornia said:

I just checked the TV schedule - seems weird isn't Fox doing a Big Noon Saturday game to counter ESPN's Big Noon Carolina P5vsG5 Rivalries. Instead FS1 has... South Dakota State at Iowa.

That SDSU vs. Iowa could actually be pretty good.  They're one of the best FCS schools, behind their neighbor to the north, who happened to beat Iowa in Kinnick in 2016.

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Mitch Cumsteen

Mitch Cumsteen 18523

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The Saturday early games are deep fried ass. I'm almost glad I have to be at an event and won't be around a TV until around 2:00.

I think it's great that they are bringing back the backyard brawl and I think it's cool that they are essentially opening up the season with a rivalry game on a Thursday night. Pitt is due to take a huge step back and their coach spent all off season bitching about USC and the transfer portal. I think West Vagina is still going to suck, though. I predict rock fight. That line jumped from Pitt -5 to -7.5, which is a number just begging you to take WVU. So, naturally Pitt will win by two TDs. 

TCU is now a 13.5 point favorite on the road against Colorado. I know that Karl Dorrell sucks but that's a shitload of points at night with a late kickoff (9:00 local time for TCU) on the road at altitude for a coach making his debut with his school. TCU was terrible on the road last year (1-4), with their only win coming at Tech. I think this game turns out to be much closer than expected and maybe even an upset. Weird shit happens at night on the road in college football, and especially early in the season.

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Goodman

Goodman 3273

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Posted
On 8/28/2022 at 12:26 PM, BigOrange1 said:

With all due respect to Week 0 (and with respect to @Macanudo and @closetojumping for stealing their bit), the 2022 college football season truly kicks off this week. Here are the games I feel are worth keeping an eye on:

Thursday, September 1st
Central Michigan @ #12 Oklahoma State - 6:00pm, FS1
Oklahoma State figures to be a major factor in the Big 12 title race this season.  Central Michigan had a very nice 9-4 season last year.  OSU is a 21 point favorite.

West Virginia @ #17 Pittsburgh - 6:00, ESPN
The return of the Backyard Brawl!  Due to West Virginia’s move to the Big 12, this game hasn’t been played since 2011.  Despite losing Kenny Pickett and Jordan Addison (and Brennan Marion), Pitt is a 7 point favorite.  JT Daniels is now the QB for WVU.

Penn State @ Purdue - 7:00, FOX
I’m not going to pretend I know a lot about these teams, but Jeff Brohm has done a good job at Purdue and there are some preseason prognosticators who are bullish on Penn State this year.  Purdue is a Thursday night home dog (I don’t think this means as much as it did 10-15 years ago) as Penn State is favored by 3.

Friday, September 2nd
Temple @ Duke - 6:30, ACCN
This isn’t anything special, but Stan Drayton’s debut as head coach of Temple deserves a passing mention on this board.  Duke is favored by 7.

Illinois @ Indiana - 7:00, FS1
Nothing special, but it's a conference game taking place on a night where not a lot of exciting games are happening.  Indiana is a 3 point home favorite.

TCU @ Colorado - 9:00, ESPN
Again, nothing special but it's a conference foe opening on the road against a Power 5 opponent.  It's also the beginning of the Sonny Dykes era at TCU, which is favored by 10.5 on the road.

Saturday, September 3rd
*Unfortunately, none of the 11:00am games on Saturday are terribly appealing.  This will be a good time to make sure you’re fully stocked up on beer and to get the smoker going.  I may check in on the aggy game (11:00am, SECN) to see how Evan Stewart’s blocking looks.*

North Carolina @ Appalachian State - 11:00am, ESPNU
This one could be worth checking out just for the atmosphere alone.  App State sold out their season tickets for the first time in school history, and the primary factor in that was the visit from UNC.  Carolina’s season opening win against FAMU was fairly meh, so maybe this is a spot where we can see the home team pull off an upset.  Carolina is only a 2 point favorite.

#23 Cincinnati @ #19 Arkansas - 2:30, ESPN
This is where the day starts to take off.  Both of these teams are coming off successful 2021 campaigns.  Cincinnati broke through and made the CFP, while Arkansas went 9-4 in Sam Pittman’s second year.  Cincinnati will be replacing Desmond Ridder.  Arkansas is a 6 point favorite.

#11 Oregon vs. #3 Georgia (in Atlanta) - 2:30, ABC
Dan Lanning makes his head coaching debut against the team he helped lead to a national championship last season as its defensive coordinator.  Can’t really say that I think Oregon has much of a shot here, but I didn’t give them any chance on the road against Ohio State last year and they won that one, so who knows.  Georgia is favored by 17.5.

#24 Houston @ UTSA - 2:30, CBSSN
Houston has gotten some hype as a G5 team who could possibly run the table and be in playoff contention.  UTSA is our week 3 opponent.  Definitely a game worth keeping an eye on during breaks in the two games listed immediately above.  Houston is a 4 point favorite.

#7 Utah @ Florida - 6:00, ESPN
I think Utah is going to be one of the best teams in the country and Cam Rising will be one of the top QB’s in college football this year.  This will be a potential showcase game for them.  On the other side of things, this is the Florida head coaching debut for Billy Napier.  Utah is favored by 2.5.

#5 Notre Dame @ #2 Ohio State - 6:30, ABC
This is the marquee game of week 1.  Marcus Freeman makes his head coaching debut against his Alma Mater.  Ohio State is loaded this year and could have the best offense in the country.  I’m not sure how competitive the game will be (Ohio State is favored by 17), but tuning in at the beginning and seeing all the pomp and circumstance surrounding this game should really bring home the fact that college football season is back.

SMU @ North Texas - 6:30, CBSSN
The debut of Thomas J. Herman as an analyst!

UL Monroe @ Texas - 7:00, LHN
The beginning of the Quinn Ewers era!  This should be a beat down (we’re a 38.5 point favorite) and hopefully we see multiple young players flash.  Also no injuries.

Boise State @ Oregon State - 9:30, ESPN
The season debut of Pac 12 After Dark.  One last chance to chase your gambling losses for the day.  Should be a competitive game as Oregon State is just a 3 point favorite.

Sunday, September 4th
Florida State @ LSU - 6:30 ABC
Brian Kelly’s debut as LSU coach.  He’s a clown and the fit feels weird, but he can coach.  Florida State had a glorified scrimmage against Duquesne yesterday.  This is an interesting game, enhanced by the fact that it's the only game of the day.  LSU is favored by 3.

Monday, September 5th
#4 Clemson @ Georgia Tech - 7:00 ESPN
The final game of the long kickoff weekend.  A #4 ranking for Clemson feels a bit optimistic to me, but that shouldn’t show against hapless Georgia Tech.  Honestly, this is a game you could skip entirely if it was taking place on Saturday, but as the only game of the day, we all know we’ll be watching.

That’s it for week one.  Is there anything I missed?
 

This should be pinned, weekly. 

TY for the work. 

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cafe society

cafe society 2841

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Posted
32 minutes ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

The Saturday early games are deep fried ass. I'm almost glad I have to be at an event and won't be around a TV until around 2:00.

I think it's great that they are bringing back the backyard brawl and I think it's cool that they are essentially opening up the season with a rivalry game on a Thursday night. Pitt is due to take a huge step back and their coach spent all off season bitching about USC and the transfer portal. I think West Vagina is still going to suck, though. I predict rock fight. That line jumped from Pitt -5 to -7.5, which is a number just begging you to take WVU. So, naturally Pitt will win by two TDs. 

TCU is now a 13.5 point favorite on the road against Colorado. I know that Karl Dorrell sucks but that's a shitload of points at night with a late kickoff (9:00 local time for TCU) on the road at altitude for a coach making his debut with his school. TCU was terrible on the road last year (1-4), with their only win coming at Tech. I think this game turns out to be much closer than expected and maybe even an upset. Weird shit happens at night on the road in college football, and especially early in the season.

I Dont Believe You Ron Burgundy GIF - I Dont Believe You Ron Burgundy Will Ferrell GIFs

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40acredropout

40acredropout 2902

Posted
Posted (edited)

Man, I'm jazzed up for this weekend. 

Will be in Columbus for the ND @ OSU game.  Can't stand either team, but go to a random game every year with my best friends from growing up.  Will be tough to top doing that and then Texas vs. Bama the very next week.

As for other games... the obvious match-ups have been mentioned above but two other games/story lines I thought were fun:

  • Army @ (-2) Coastal Carolina 
    • One of my favorite elements of college football is the contrasting styles you see. 
    • While both teams were top 15 in rushing % last season, they could not look much more different. 
    • Coastal has McCall back at QB but... not much else.  They rank 129th in returning team production.  Army doesn't fare too much better (89th)
    • Definitely two scrappy programs... I think this will be fun to watch.
  • NMSU @ (-36.5) Minnesota- 
    • Jerry Kill medically retired in 2015 and has spent the last 7 years publicly bad mouthing TJ Fleck 
    • Most recently, said he wasn't sure if he'd shake hands with Fleck.  Not saying he's right or wrong, but at least makes it interesting.  
    • NMSU is dog shit.  1-10 last season against FBS teams.  On average, lost by 20 points per game.  They also bring back nothing, ranking 116th in returning production (Minn at 50th).  This is Kill's first season.
    • Fleck has downplayed any drama but you know he wants to kick the ever living shit out of Jerry.  
      • By SP+, Minnesota (31) is 100 teams better than NMSU (131).  Same as Tennessee (10) and Ball States (110).  Vegas has Minnesota at 36.5 point favorites, compared to Tennessee at 33.5.  Tennessee is actually capable of scoring in bunches.  Is Vegas pricing in an old fashion grudge fuck?
Edited by 40acredropout
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closetojumping

closetojumping 62245

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, 40acredropout said:

Man, I'm jazzed up for this weekend. 

Will be in Columbus for the ND @ OSU game.  Can't stand either team, but go to a random game every year with my best friends from growing up.  Will be tough to top doing that and then Texas vs. Bama the very next week.

As for other games... the obvious match-ups have been mentioned above but two other games/story lines I thought were fun:

  • Army @ (-2) Coastal Carolina 
    • One of my favorite elements of college football is the contrasting styles you see. 
    • While both teams were top 15 in rushing % last season, they could not look much more different. 
    • Coastal has McCall back at QB but... not much else.  They rank 129th in returning team production.  Army doesn't fare too much better (89th)
    • Definitely two scrappy programs... I think this will be fun to watch.
  • NMSU @ (-36.5) Minnesota- 
    • Jerry Kill medically retired in 2015 and has spent the last 7 years publicly bad mouthing TJ Fleck 
    • Most recently, said he wasn't sure if he'd shake hands with Fleck.  Not saying he's right or wrong, but at least makes it interesting.  
    • NMSU is dog shit.  1-10 last season against FBS teams.  On average, lost by 20 points per game.  They also bring back nothing, ranking 116th in returning production (Minn at 50th).  This is Kill's first season.
    • Fleck has downplayed any drama but you know he wants to kick the ever living shit out of Jerry.  
      • By SP+, Minnesota (31) is 100 teams better than NMSU (131).  Same as Tennessee (10) and Ball States (110).  Vegas has Minnesota at 36.5 point favorites, compared to Tennessee at 33.5.  Tennessee is actually capable of scoring in bunches.  Is Vegas pricing in an old fashion grudge fuck?

I didn't think about Kill hating Fleck for that game. That's awesome. I cannot believe Jerry Kill has a head coaching gig. He literally goes down multiple times a year when he's roaming the sidelines. At some point, it's not scary or sad, it's hilarious. You know better, dude, what the fuck are you still doing trotting out there? 

I asked this question last week, to the ether, I guess, but why does NSMU football exist? They got kicked out of some lowly conference. No one else wants them in their conference. They're out in the middle of nowhere. They have no history of success, no resources, no hope. I love everything about college football and, hey, the more teams the merrier, but the NMSU thing is just bizarre to me. They average less than 16,000 fan per game, which means they're playing to a half full stadium.

If you found yourself in the football admin, on the staff, on the roster, or in the stands at NMSU, somewhere, in the back of your mind, you'd have to be thinking "well, this is rock bottom. it has to be, right?" and maybe that's why they're there - to remind the rest of us that no matter how futile or Sisyphean our experience as fans feels, hey, we're not New Mexico State, we're not at the rock bottom of this thing and we never will be. 

In fact, if this season starts careening sideways on Seven Loss Steve and we're trending towards 4-8 or 5-7 again, we should rename the football board "Hey, This Ain't New Mexico State". That'll always serve to cheer us up.

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oSuJeff97

oSuJeff97 3435

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 8/29/2022 at 10:17 AM, closetojumping said:

Thursday night presents an interesting group of match-ups as a preamble for the weekend, which is nice. I've added my thoughts the games the OP called out.

Central Michigan @ Oklahoma State - Okie State is basically the belle of the Big 12 ball according to the preseason media pundits. It's interesting, because OSU returns only 10 starters, including just 4 on defense. Oliver isn't counted in that group and he's a stud, so it might as well be 5 on D. Still Jim Knowles is gone and Mason replaces him, so there will be at least a few transition issues. Sanders is a turnover machine, but Gundy manages him well and he's an upperclassman now. They have to replace Warren and their #1 WR too, so there's work to be done on offense. Central Michigan embarrassed OSU in 2016 in their last meeting. OSU is favored by 20.5. I don't see it. CMU was good last year and won their bowl, and they return most of their offense. I think this will be a sneaky good game and it is relevant to us. @'stache or any other OSU fans with an opinion on their team this year.

Re: the defense only returning 4 starters - yes Collin Oliver makes 5 but also remember Trace Ford is back this year. He was Collin Oliver before Collin Oliver showed up. And all of the returning production is up-front, which is really what you want.  Will the defense be as good as last year's unit? Not likely. Will it be good enough to win games? Yes I believe so.  The front with Oliver, Ford, Tyler Lacy, Brandon Evers, Sione Asi, and Brock Martin are going to cause a lot of problems for a lot of people.

Re: Sanders. I don't know that it's fair to call him a "turnover machine" any more. He basically had a Baylor problem last year. He threw 6 INTs in 69 passing attempts in two games against Baylor... and another 6 INTs in 323 passing in 11 other games... the splits on that are pretty crazy:

  • One INT every 11.5 attempts against Baylor
  • One INT every 53.8 attempts against everyone else

I think what we're going to see from Sanders this year is much closer to what he did in the Fiesta Bowl against ND.  With a full healthy group of receivers, you're going to see us running a lot more 4-receiver sets with tempo with Sanders getting the ball to Presley and John Paul Richardson in space. We also have Braydon Johnson back at WR. He missed all of last year with an injury and was *expected* to be the next really good WR before Tay Martin emerged.

RB is the biggest mystery spot, and something I'll be paying very close attention to. Right now Dominic Richardson is listed as the starter, but that's because Gundy almost always goes with the most experienced starter at the beginning of the season. We also have Texas A&M transfer Deondre Jackson, RS-Fr Jaden Nixon and Fr Ollie Gordon. Gordon almost definitely has the most pure talent, but he's a true freshman. I think it's somewhat likely one of those latter three is the starter before conference play starts.

Edited by oSuJeff97
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40acredropout

40acredropout 2902

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

I didn't think about Kill hating Fleck for that game. That's awesome. I cannot believe Jerry Kill has a head coaching gig. He literally goes down multiple times a year when he's roaming the sidelines. At some point, it's not scary or sad, it's hilarious. You know better, dude, what the fuck are you still doing trotting out there? 

I asked this question last week, to the ether, I guess, but why does NSMU football exist? They got kicked out of some lowly conference. No one else wants them in their conference. They're out in the middle of nowhere. They have no history of success, no resources, no hope. I love everything about college football and, hey, the more teams the merrier, but the NMSU thing is just bizarre to me. They average less than 16,000 fan per game, which means they're playing to a half full stadium.

If you found yourself in the football admin, on the staff, on the roster, or in the stands at NMSU, somewhere, in the back of your mind, you'd have to be thinking "well, this is rock bottom. it has to be, right?" and maybe that's why they're there - to remind the rest of us that no matter how futile or Sisyphean our experience as fans feels, hey, we're not New Mexico State, we're not at the rock bottom of this thing and we never will be. 

In fact, if this season starts careening sideways on Seven Loss Steve and we're trending towards 4-8 or 5-7 again, we should rename the football board "Hey, This Ain't New Mexico State". That'll always serve to cheer us up.

We will know we are living in some sick, fucked up simulation when new Texas HC Garry Patterson hires his buddy Jerry Kill onto his staff.  

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closetojumping

closetojumping 62245

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, oSuJeff97 said:

Re: the defense only returning 4 starters - yes Collin Oliver makes 5 but also remember Trace Ford is back this year. He was Collin Oliver before Collin Oliver showed up. And all of the returning production is up-front, which is really what you want.  Will the defense be as good as last year's unit? Not likely. Will it be good enough to win games? Yes I believe so.  The front with Oliver, Ford, Tyler Lacy, Brandon Evers, Sione Asi, and Brock Martin are going to cause a lot of problems for a lot of people.

Re: Sanders. I don't know that it's fair to call him a "turnover machine" any more. He basically had a Baylor problem last year. He threw 6 INTs in 69 passing attempts in two games against Baylor... and another 6 INTs in 323 passing in 11 other games... the splits on that are pretty crazy:

  • One INT every 11.5 attempts against Baylor
  • One INT every 53.8 attempts against everyone else

I think what we're going to see from Sanders this year is much closer to what he did in the Fiesta Bowl against ND.  With a full healthy group of receivers, you're going to see us running a lot more 4-receiver sets with tempo with Sanders getting the ball to Presley and John Paul Richardson in space. We also have Braydon Johnson back at WR. He missed all of last year with an injury and was *expected* to be the next really good WR before Tay Martin emerged.

RB is the biggest mystery spot, and something I'll be paying very close attention to. Right now Dominic Richardson is listed as the starter, but that's because Gundy almost always goes with the most experienced starter at the beginning of the season. We also have Texas A&M transfer Deondre Jackson, RS-Fr Jaden Nixon and Fr Ollie Gordon. I think it's somewhat likely one of those latter three is the starter before conference play starts.

Well, I've predicted you guys as my fourth CFP team, so here's hoping things play to the upside you paint. I don't particularly mind Sanders as a QB for a top team, but if he gets hassled and Gundy has to let him throw due to the score and time remaining, I view his default behavior as shooting first and aiming later. We saw that earlier in his career, no? 

Which opponent concerns you more, CMU or Arizona State? On paper, ASU always should be the answer. I think McElwain is a decent coach and the offense is going to be good. I think ASU is a mess at this point. If OSU wins both games and is hanging around the CFP discussion, more folks will credit the ASU win in the non-con than CMU, but the CMU might be the harder fought event.

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