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Week One College Football Viewing Guide

BigOrange1

By BigOrange1
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oSuJeff97

oSuJeff97 3,439

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1 minute ago, closetojumping said:

Well, I've predicted you guys as my fourth CFP team, so here's hoping things play to the upside you paint. I don't particularly mind Sanders as a QB for a top team, but if he gets hassled and Gundy has to let him throw due to the score and time remaining, I view his default behavior as shooting first and aiming later. We saw that earlier in his career, no? 

Which opponent concerns you more, CMU or Arizona State? On paper, ASU always should be the answer. I think McElwain is a decent coach and the offense is going to be good. I think ASU is a mess at this point. If OSU wins both games and is hanging around the CFP discussion, more folks will credit the ASU win in the non-con than CMU, but the CMU might be the harder fought event.

Yes we certainly did see that early in his career, but lots of young QBs struggle with turning the ball over in high-leverage situations.

Is Sanders prone to doing some head-scratching stuff every once in a while? For sure. He's definitely got that "gun slinger" mentality but overall his decision-making has improved substantially year-over-year and I expect further improvement this year.  Also I think the season he had last year gets overlooked because of the 4 INTs in the Big 12 title game. It fit the preconceived notion of what he is for most people and so they just assume that's what he did all year, when he most certainly did not.

Just about the entire first half of the season, and certainly the first 4 games or so, he was having to run the offense with his arms tied behind his back because we basically had 1 or 2 healthy scholarship receivers that whole time. Hell, by the end of the Boise game, we had ZERO.  We could have very easily lost 3 of our first 4 games had he not helped grit out those wins throwing to true freshmen and walk-ons.

And re: CMU/ASU, I think what you stated is just about right. Early season games can always be dicey, but having an experienced QB and playing both at home certainly takes some of the scare out of it. I also think playing CMU in game 1 helps. If it was, say, the 3rd preseason game I think you would be more apt for some kind of a "let down", but with it being game 1 and at home I expect the team to come out fired up and play relatively well...(the normal game 1 rust for both teams notwithstanding).

And to be clear, I don't know if I'm painting a "rosy" picture, per se. The *pieces* are there for this team to be better than last year's team because I think the defense can be *almost* as good while I think the offense (on the whole) can be *much* better.  Recall that OSU only broke 30 points 5 times in 13 non-Kansas games last year. I expect that number to be much higher this year.

But we'll have to see if Mason is as good at in-game adjustments as Knowles was. There were *many* games last year where teams had some decent success against the defense in the first half of games only to get absolutely stonewalled in the second half. That was HUGE in OSU's overall success last year. So even if the offense is much better, the defense *may* be much worse, even though the personnel is there, depending on how Mason does.

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Zeus

Zeus 6,864

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On 8/29/2022 at 1:23 PM, Helobious said:

Not Desmond Howard bad but wow these picks are terrible. You will get Ohio State-Bama-Georgia-ND and like it. 

Lulz

Is there a thread for this?

Ohio State wins it all, over Alabama.

Bammer over Clemson and Ohio State over Georgia

I hate all these teams I hope none of them make the playoff

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GopherRock

GopherRock 1,773

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I might have bought Jerry Kill's excuse of quitting for medical reasons had he stayed gone for a while after quitting. Instead, he goes right back onto the coaching trail, bouncing from one job to the next, and talking trash about the UMN admin and PJ the whole time. So much for 'ol Country Jer.

Anyhow, yours truly will be at the New Brickhouse on Thursday night with a nice buzz and ready to watch my Gophers, who have a seasoned squad, a manageable schedule, and division title ambitions beat the shit out of the worst team in D1. 

As for the spread, PJ has a habit of not covering big numbers against tomato cans. I'd rather play the over.

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ShaggyBevo RIP

ShaggyBevo RIP 3,873

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Brown vs. Appy State will be interesting, yep. Appy State roster filled with players that couldn't get a sniff from the NC schools. Pretty much guaranteed that they are going to give max effort. 
Game is a pick. 

There is a lot AppSt dudes that are taking the COVID extra year. Brice will be a 5th year QB. RB Peoples and TE Pearson are 5th year too. Unfortunately, the three leading receivers and two best LBs from last season are gone. AppSt only lost to top 25 teams last season and WKU because of 4 turnovers.
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ShaggyBevo RIP

ShaggyBevo RIP 3,873

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Penn State @ Purdue - If Purdue wins this game, they are immediately the favorite to win the Big 10 West and play in the conference title game. They miss OSU, Michigan and MSU from the Big 10 East this year. Purdue brings back a ton, including probably the 2nd best QB in the conference in Aiden O'Connell. Also, they have King Doerue from somewhere in the Texas pandhandle. Purdue returns a ton on a good defense too. Somehow PSU is favored in this game, on the road, against a team returning 16 starters. PSU lost tons of talent on defense and returns only 4 starters on that side. On offense, they return Sean Clifford and I am not sure that is a good thing. They had significant losses on the OL and Purdue's best unit is their DL. Give me Purdue to win outright.

Thursday night away game season opener isn’t good for PedoSt.

I told my Purdue Freshman she better not miss this game as it could very well make Boilermaker lore. She told me that the freshman class(10K+ making it Purdue’s largest ever) is already frothing for this game as COVID took away part of that high school experience. Ross-Ade is going to be rocking.
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Buzzrock

Buzzrock 15,136

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With all due respect to Week 0 (and with respect to [mention=1243]Macanudo[/mention] and [mention=429]closetojumping[/mention] for stealing their bit), the 2022 college football season truly kicks off this week. Here are the games I feel are worth keeping an eye on:
Thursday, September 1st
Central Michigan @ #12 Oklahoma State - 6:00pm, FS1
Oklahoma State figures to be a major factor in the Big 12 title race this season.  Central Michigan had a very nice 9-4 season last year.  OSU is a 21 point favorite.
West Virginia @ #17 Pittsburgh - 6:00, ESPN
The return of the Backyard Brawl!  Due to West Virginia’s move to the Big 12, this game hasn’t been played since 2011.  Despite losing Kenny Pickett and Jordan Addison (and Brennan Marion), Pitt is a 7 point favorite.  JT Daniels is now the QB for WVU.
Penn State @ Purdue - 7:00, FOX
I’m not going to pretend I know a lot about these teams, but Jeff Brohm has done a good job at Purdue and there are some preseason prognosticators who are bullish on Penn State this year.  Purdue is a Thursday night home dog (I don’t think this means as much as it did 10-15 years ago) as Penn State is favored by 3.
Friday, September 2nd
Temple @ Duke - 6:30, ACCN
This isn’t anything special, but Stan Drayton’s debut as head coach of Temple deserves a passing mention on this board.  Duke is favored by 7.
Illinois @ Indiana - 7:00, FS1
Nothing special, but it's a conference game taking place on a night where not a lot of exciting games are happening.  Indiana is a 3 point home favorite.
TCU @ Colorado - 9:00, ESPN
Again, nothing special but it's a conference foe opening on the road against a Power 5 opponent.  It's also the beginning of the Sonny Dykes era at TCU, which is favored by 10.5 on the road.
Saturday, September 3rd
*Unfortunately, none of the 11:00am games on Saturday are terribly appealing.  This will be a good time to make sure you’re fully stocked up on beer and to get the smoker going.  I may check in on the aggy game (11:00am, SECN) to see how Evan Stewart’s blocking looks.*
North Carolina @ Appalachian State - 11:00am, ESPNU
This one could be worth checking out just for the atmosphere alone.  App State sold out their season tickets for the first time in school history, and the primary factor in that was the visit from UNC.  Carolina’s season opening win against FAMU was fairly meh, so maybe this is a spot where we can see the home team pull off an upset.  Carolina is only a 2 point favorite.
#23 Cincinnati @ #19 Arkansas - 2:30, ESPN
This is where the day starts to take off.  Both of these teams are coming off successful 2021 campaigns.  Cincinnati broke through and made the CFP, while Arkansas went 9-4 in Sam Pittman’s second year.  Cincinnati will be replacing Desmond Ridder.  Arkansas is a 6 point favorite.
#11 Oregon vs. #3 Georgia (in Atlanta) - 2:30, ABC
Dan Lanning makes his head coaching debut against the team he helped lead to a national championship last season as its defensive coordinator.  Can’t really say that I think Oregon has much of a shot here, but I didn’t give them any chance on the road against Ohio State last year and they won that one, so who knows.  Georgia is favored by 17.5.
#24 Houston @ UTSA - 2:30, CBSSN
Houston has gotten some hype as a G5 team who could possibly run the table and be in playoff contention.  UTSA is our week 3 opponent.  Definitely a game worth keeping an eye on during breaks in the two games listed immediately above.  Houston is a 4 point favorite.
#7 Utah @ Florida - 6:00, ESPN
I think Utah is going to be one of the best teams in the country and Cam Rising will be one of the top QB’s in college football this year.  This will be a potential showcase game for them.  On the other side of things, this is the Florida head coaching debut for Billy Napier.  Utah is favored by 2.5.
#5 Notre Dame @ #2 Ohio State - 6:30, ABC
This is the marquee game of week 1.  Marcus Freeman makes his head coaching debut against his Alma Mater.  Ohio State is loaded this year and could have the best offense in the country.  I’m not sure how competitive the game will be (Ohio State is favored by 17), but tuning in at the beginning and seeing all the pomp and circumstance surrounding this game should really bring home the fact that college football season is back.
SMU @ North Texas - 6:30, CBSSN
The debut of Thomas J. Herman as an analyst!
UL Monroe @ Texas - 7:00, LHN
The beginning of the Quinn Ewers era!  This should be a beat down (we’re a 38.5 point favorite) and hopefully we see multiple young players flash.  Also no injuries.
Boise State @ Oregon State - 9:30, ESPN
The season debut of Pac 12 After Dark.  One last chance to chase your gambling losses for the day.  Should be a competitive game as Oregon State is just a 3 point favorite.
Sunday, September 4th
Florida State @ LSU - 6:30 ABC
Brian Kelly’s debut as LSU coach.  He’s a clown and the fit feels weird, but he can coach.  Florida State had a glorified scrimmage against Duquesne yesterday.  This is an interesting game, enhanced by the fact that it's the only game of the day.  LSU is favored by 3.
Monday, September 5th
#4 Clemson @ Georgia Tech - 7:00 ESPN
The final game of the long kickoff weekend.  A #4 ranking for Clemson feels a bit optimistic to me, but that shouldn’t show against hapless Georgia Tech.  Honestly, this is a game you could skip entirely if it was taking place on Saturday, but as the only game of the day, we all know we’ll be watching.
That’s it for week one.  Is there anything I missed?
 

I was offered free suite tix to GT-Clemson and I’m still not going. We’re that bad.
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closetojumping

closetojumping 65,447

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On 8/29/2022 at 10:17 AM, closetojumping said:

Thursday night presents an interesting group of match-ups as a preamble for the weekend, which is nice. I've added my thoughts the games the OP called out.

Central Michigan @ Oklahoma State - Okie State is basically the belle of the Big 12 ball according to the preseason media pundits. It's interesting, because OSU returns only 10 starters, including just 4 on defense. Oliver isn't counted in that group and he's a stud, so it might as well be 5 on D. Still Jim Knowles is gone and Mason replaces him, so there will be at least a few transition issues. Sanders is a turnover machine, but Gundy manages him well and he's an upperclassman now. They have to replace Warren and their #1 WR too, so there's work to be done on offense. Central Michigan embarrassed OSU in 2016 in their last meeting. OSU is favored by 20.5. I don't see it. CMU was good last year and won their bowl, and they return most of their offense. I think this will be a sneaky good game and it is relevant to us. @'stache or any other OSU fans with an opinion on their team this year.

WVU @ Pitt - Pitt is lazily overranked at #17 in the AP. They're a prime candidate to be one of the first ranked teams going down this season. They lost Pickett and picked up Slovis, and they return their entire OL. Sounds great, but they lost Whipple and Addison in addition to Pickett and I have a hard time believing they'll just "click" the way they did last season. Pitt's defense also returns a bunch, including several All ACC performers. Still, the offense is what made that team go last season. WVU is always a mess on defense, but they do bring back 5 starters on that side. WVU picked up JT Daniels, who seems to have been highly overrated as a 5 star and he's also made of glass. Still, the dude has a whip and the entire OL also returns for WVU. Pitt is giving 7.5 at home and I'd take WVU all day long if I were in Vegas. This one also has implications for UT and should be a good watch. 

Penn State @ Purdue - If Purdue wins this game, they are immediately the favorite to win the Big 10 West and play in the conference title game. They miss OSU, Michigan and MSU from the Big 10 East this year. Purdue brings back a ton, including probably the 2nd best QB in the conference in Aiden O'Connell. Also, they have King Doerue from somewhere in the Texas pandhandle. Purdue returns a ton on a good defense too. Somehow PSU is favored in this game, on the road, against a team returning 16 starters. PSU lost tons of talent on defense and returns only 4 starters on that side. On offense, they return Sean Clifford and I am not sure that is a good thing. They had significant losses on the OL and Purdue's best unit is their DL. Give me Purdue to win outright.

I was pretty close in my thinking on these 3 games. The OSU/CMU game was closer than it should have been. Okie State's defense inexcusably sucked, sorry. WVU covered if you had +7.5 and this was a helluva game. Stills on the WVU defensive front is going to be a problem for Texas. Daniels looked pretty average and his WR screwed him by enabling that pick 6. Pitt looked better than I figured. That was a fun game. Regarding Purdue/PSU, I cannot fucking believe how pathetic Brohm was in handling the last 7 minutes of the 4th quarter. I was embarrassed for him and if I were a Purdue fan, I'd be sick today.

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DukDukGru

DukDukGru 48

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On 8/29/2022 at 8:17 AM, closetojumping said:

Thursday night presents an interesting group of match-ups as a preamble for the weekend, which is nice. I've added my thoughts the games the OP called out.

Central Michigan @ Oklahoma State - Okie State is basically the belle of the Big 12 ball according to the preseason media pundits. It's interesting, because OSU returns only 10 starters, including just 4 on defense. Oliver isn't counted in that group and he's a stud, so it might as well be 5 on D. Still Jim Knowles is gone and Mason replaces him, so there will be at least a few transition issues. Sanders is a turnover machine, but Gundy manages him well and he's an upperclassman now. They have to replace Warren and their #1 WR too, so there's work to be done on offense. Central Michigan embarrassed OSU in 2016 in their last meeting. OSU is favored by 20.5. I don't see it. CMU was good last year and won their bowl, and they return most of their offense. I think this will be a sneaky good game and it is relevant to us. @'stache or any other OSU fans with an opinion on their team this year.

WVU @ Pitt - Pitt is lazily overranked at #17 in the AP. They're a prime candidate to be one of the first ranked teams going down this season. They lost Pickett and picked up Slovis, and they return their entire OL. Sounds great, but they lost Whipple and Addison in addition to Pickett and I have a hard time believing they'll just "click" the way they did last season. Pitt's defense also returns a bunch, including several All ACC performers. Still, the offense is what made that team go last season. WVU is always a mess on defense, but they do bring back 5 starters on that side. WVU picked up JT Daniels, who seems to have been highly overrated as a 5 star and he's also made of glass. Still, the dude has a whip and the entire OL also returns for WVU. Pitt is giving 7.5 at home and I'd take WVU all day long if I were in Vegas. This one also has implications for UT and should be a good watch. 

Penn State @ Purdue - If Purdue wins this game, they are immediately the favorite to win the Big 10 West and play in the conference title game. They miss OSU, Michigan and MSU from the Big 10 East this year. Purdue brings back a ton, including probably the 2nd best QB in the conference in Aiden O'Connell. Also, they have King Doerue from somewhere in the Texas pandhandle. Purdue returns a ton on a good defense too. Somehow PSU is favored in this game, on the road, against a team returning 16 starters. PSU lost tons of talent on defense and returns only 4 starters on that side. On offense, they return Sean Clifford and I am not sure that is a good thing. They had significant losses on the OL and Purdue's best unit is their DL. Give me Purdue to win outright.

Like Big Orange1, I didn't know much about Penn St. and Purdue. I was surprised to hear that Boilermakers were up near the very end.  Your analysis explains a lot.

 

I may track the score on the North Dakota State & Nebraska game and see if it is worth finding the broadcast for a little while.

Oregon Homers seem to be calling for a "Closer than the spread" cover based on the solid duck offensive line, some perceived talent at running back, and the assumption that Bo Nix can do something.  The offensive factors would lead to a close game since the defense is supposed to be the stronger side of the ball this year.  Many of the same honks called the upset over the Buckeyes last year.

IMO: with this being Lanning's 1st run as head coach, nobody can really know how the staff has meshed, and how much has been installed to the level that all 11 players on the field are on the same page and up to game speed.  As with any game, praying for no/few turnovers and lots of takeaways.  

When Lanning has been interviewed, he SOUNDS like a good hire. The other coaches SOUND like they are good as well.   The proof is in the pudding, and I don't know if accurate results show up quickly, or if this will be a year of growing pains and band-aids.

For the first game will mostly watch the unveiling against a strong opponent without as much emotional fandom and just see what happens.

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