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China and Taiwan. Not good.

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17521

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2 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Meh.  Shit happens there, in fits and starts.  The Hainan Island incident in 2001 was a lot hairier.  Warning shots at a drone aren't crisis-level shit.

Hell, shooting down a drone is arguably not shit depending on the drone. 

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Texzilla58

Texzilla58 4731

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A lot of folks I ask about Taiwan say something like “ I like that Pad Thai!” Yikes we’re stupid as a nation.

I deal with a lot of suppliers with Chinese factories. They’re getting the constant drumbeat from Xi over there. More of them are moving factories to Vietnam, Malaysia, Mexico, or Mississippi.

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crash_davis

crash_davis 23096

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5 minutes ago, Texzilla58 said:

A lot of folks I ask about Taiwan say something like “ I like that Pad Thai!” Yikes we’re stupid as a nation.

I deal with a lot of suppliers with Chinese factories. They’re getting the constant drumbeat from Xi over there. More of them are moving factories to Vietnam, Malaysia, Mexico, or Mississippi.

The threat of China invading Taiwan and Covid China manufacturing shut downs taught companies to diversify manufacturing the fuck out of China. No better time to get the fuck out then right the fuck now.

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105043

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2 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

The threat of China invading Taiwan and Covid China manufacturing shut downs taught companies to diversify manufacturing the fuck out of China. No better time to get the fuck out then right the fuck now.

Seems like it's time to dust off my "Brisketexan's pitch to turn Mexico and Central America into China's replacements."  Seriously, we get proximity and greater security, AND instead of funding a regime that's actively trying to fuck us over on multiple fronts, we get to provide prosperity for a neighboring region, helping to stabilize it and reduce the flow of desperate people running away from said regimes and towards our border.  Win-win-win-win.

It will take some investment in education and infrastructure in the area, but goddamn.....I'd much prefer it if our iphones and dishwashers were made in Managua or Tegucigalpa.  And if more of our chip fab was here at home, and in Monterrey.  This should be an economic and national security priority, not to mention the side benefit of alleviating a lot of our concerns about the border (Jose and Maria aren't going to flee Tegucigalpa if they have a decent life because they have good jobs at the Kitchenaid factory).

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crash_davis

crash_davis 23096

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1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

Seems like it's time to dust off my "Brisketexan's pitch to turn Mexico and Central America into China's replacements."  Seriously, we get proximity and greater security, AND instead of funding a regime that's actively trying to fuck us over on multiple fronts, we get to provide prosperity for a neighboring region, helping to stabilize it and reduce the flow of desperate people running away from said regimes and towards our border.  Win-win-win-win.

It will take some investment in education and infrastructure in the area, but goddamn.....I'd much prefer it if our iphones and dishwashers were made in Managua or Tegucigalpa.  And if more of our chip fab was here at home, and in Monterrey.  This should be an economic and national security priority, not to mention the side benefit of alleviating a lot of our concerns about the border (Jose and Maria aren't going to flee Tegucigalpa if they have a decent life because they have good jobs at the Kitchenaid factory).

Cartels. Another industry to monetize protection schemes.

tumblr_md04lmEl9u1qzqnxxo1_500.gif&f=1&n

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105043

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2 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

Cartels. Another industry to monetize protection schemes.

tumblr_md04lmEl9u1qzqnxxo1_500.gif&f=1&n

Unquestionably.  We'd surely be dealing with corruption and protection schemes.

And it would still be 10X better than dealing with the Chicoms.  Hell, it presents opportunities for capital-rich cartel lords to "go legit."  End the War on Drugs.  Divert the spending on the War on Drugs to offer incentives to build factories in Honduras, and to educate a local workforce.  Winning all the way around.  Might Pablo the Drug Lord also get rich off the deal?  Maybe.  IDGAF, the other victories are worth it.

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crash_davis

crash_davis 23096

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8 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Unquestionably.  We'd surely be dealing with corruption and protection schemes.

And it would still be 10X better than dealing with the Chicoms.  Hell, it presents opportunities for capital-rich cartel lords to "go legit."  End the War on Drugs.  Divert the spending on the War on Drugs to offer incentives to build factories in Honduras, and to educate a local workforce.  Winning all the way around.  Might Pablo the Drug Lord also get rich off the deal?  Maybe.  IDGAF, the other victories are worth it.

This is for the cartel discussion but they are already involved in the hotel/resorts business, the avocado and basically most all agricultural exports business, and they are still mass murdering people and waging war with each other. Adding manufacturing protection to their portfolio isn't going to make them less rapey and killey.

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staboner

staboner 4969

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6 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Meh.  Shit happens there, in fits and starts.  The Hainan Island incident in 2001 was a lot hairier.  Warning shots at a drone aren't crisis-level shit.

I think the situation with China is at its all time peak hairiness right now IMO. Over the last year their government has proven they are completely irrational. The decisions surrounding covid defy logic. In 2001 they are in the middle of their runway and wouldn't risk fucking that up, while now they are stuck between a rock and way too many hard spots. Real Estate, covid, manufacturing, russia, debt collapse, food and energy issues, methinks this is some shit ready to blow. Not sure at all what it will look like, but obv Taiwan is sitting there for the taking. Its not a rational action at all, but that ship seems to have sailed for the CCP during the pandemic. 

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BabaYaga

BabaYaga 15286

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17 hours ago, crash_davis said:

This is for the cartel discussion but they are already involved in the hotel/resorts business, the avocado and basically most all agricultural exports business, and they are still mass murdering people and waging war with each other. Adding manufacturing protection to their portfolio isn't going to make them less rapey and killey.

This.  They are not going to just exit what is probably still one of their highest margin revenue streams.  Human trafficking doesn't take much infrastructure compared to manufacturing chips, etc.   

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105043

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8 hours ago, BabaYaga said:

This.  They are not going to just exit what is probably still one of their highest margin revenue streams.  Human trafficking doesn't take much infrastructure compared to manufacturing chips, etc.   

Counterpoint: fuck with Apple's revenue stream, Apple will cut a bitch.  So will Intel, Whirlpool, etc.

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BabaYaga

BabaYaga 15286

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42 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Even if it is illegal to shoot within city limits, I think he was within his rights. I guess they want you to call the police and wait for them and then for them to tell you that they didn't see the drone and there is no way to identify the perpetrators.

Well, it was in KY, so there's that also

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BabaYaga

BabaYaga 15286

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20 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Man, I was near Norton Crossings off of Sleepy Hollow, Rd. in Louisville and I saw a huge 12 pt. buck (maybe more depending on the little ones near the skull).

Used to live in Louisville - Hurstborne/Bardstown area.  It's an interesting mix between urban and rural areas.  I can say the drive between Louisville and Lexington is one of the nicest you can make.  Horse farms as far as you can see.  

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Texzilla58

Texzilla58 4731

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Seems like it's time to dust off my "Brisketexan's pitch to turn Mexico and Central America into China's replacements."  Seriously, we get proximity and greater security, AND instead of funding a regime that's actively trying to fuck us over on multiple fronts, we get to provide prosperity for a neighboring region, helping to stabilize it and reduce the flow of desperate people running away from said regimes and towards our border.  Win-win-win-win.
It will take some investment in education and infrastructure in the area, but goddamn.....I'd much prefer it if our iphones and dishwashers were made in Managua or Tegucigalpa.  And if more of our chip fab was here at home, and in Monterrey.  This should be an economic and national security priority, not to mention the side benefit of alleviating a lot of our concerns about the border (Jose and Maria aren't going to flee Tegucigalpa if they have a decent life because they have good jobs at the Kitchenaid factory).

Not that long ago practically every TV sold here was made in border factories from Tijuana to Reynosa. I spent a lot of time in them. And as the Japanese exited TV, it all went away. About all that’s left is the Foxconn factory outside TJ.

I’ve been asking my vendors for years, is an automated factory that much cheaper in China than Acuna, or Panama City, or Woodward, OK? Especially weighing costs of containers and transpacific freight. Time and interest. Speed to market. The issues are more political than anything as our pols of every stripe have been compromised by the PRC. Most Chinese factories are state owned or financed and cannot move. If a company doesn’t own their tools they are fucked.

The issues in Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia are more logistics on ports and rail. The workforce is better.

We should have kept Subic Bay and turned part of it into a state of the art logistics hub. Same in Vietnam. Get a 100 year lease on Cam Rahn Bay for our Navy and build them a fucking killer logistics hub in Hanoi Bay as well. Naturally we should have kept the Panama Canal.

The Chinese haven’t fought a successful offensive campaign in over a thousand years. If they move on Taiwan the Vietnamese might move in the south. The South Koreans hate them too and the Japanese are getting Godzilla in fighting trim.

We have done this shit to ourselves not protecting our manufacturing. It won’t be pretty if the Chinese act. What Xi hasn’t figured out is their kids, three generations of spoiled only children, love western tech, culture, and ideas. They aren’t eager to fight or be bombed.
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Bevo

Bevo 13559

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21 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Used to live in Louisville - Hurstborne/Bardstown area.  It's an interesting mix between urban and rural areas.  I can say the drive between Louisville and Lexington is one of the nicest you can make.  Horse farms as far as you can see.  

Yeah, we had beautiful bike rides in Prospect and Goshen. Louisville goes from urban to rural very fast.

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Underdog

Underdog 28544

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On 9/1/2022 at 12:18 PM, BabaYaga said:

Used to live in Louisville - Hurstborne/Bardstown area.  It's an interesting mix between urban and rural areas.  I can say the drive between Louisville and Lexington is one of the nicest you can make.  Horse farms as far as you can see.  

Louisville in your rearview mirror always makes it a nice drive.

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gsoda3

gsoda3 3245

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Counterpoint: fuck with Apple's revenue stream, Apple will cut a bitch.  So will Intel, Whirlpool, etc.
That's the cartels' operating strategy. As for apple, intel, etc... Who are their enforcers? They don't have anyone. Not the US gvt. Our agencies have been neutered by amlo as a result of his hugs not bullets campaign. All the headway we were making has been undone in the past half decade.
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berlinerbaer

berlinerbaer 670

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On 9/1/2022 at 3:00 PM, Superhero said:

This thread got off track pretty quickly.

 

Just to give the OP some context, the drone flew over Kinmen, which a whole LOT closer to China than to Taiwan.

image.thumb.png.1e47a2ea14eafef5c142c17916c66e75.png

 

It's astounding to me that Taiwan still has territory so close to the mainland. If China was even remotely capable of taking Taiwan, those islands would have been conquered long ago.

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Armybrat

Armybrat 40815

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On 9/1/2022 at 3:00 PM, Superhero said:

This thread got off track pretty quickly.

 

Just to give the OP some context, the drone flew over Kinmen, which a whole LOT closer to China than to Taiwan.

image.thumb.png.1e47a2ea14eafef5c142c17916c66e75.png

Yeah, my dad did an inspection tour of that Island in 1958 and the smaller one closer to the mainland. They are honeycombed with underground fortifications where Dad was billeted each night. The Chicoms threw a few shells over every now & then just for grins, but enough to scare a big rat into running over his face in the middle of the night.

 

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15531

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China simply doesn't have the ability to invade Taiwan.  

An invasion of Taiwan would involve a massive amphibious operation, and the Chinese military just isn't up to it.  Amphibious operations are about the hardest thing to do in warfare.  It's not just combined-arms.  It's combined-arms across air, land, and sea.  Russia has shown us how hard combined arms is just across the army; now imagine trying to do it across all three service branches.

In the past century, the only countries that have successfully pulled off large-scale amphibious operations are the United States and the United Kingdom (I'm going to count Turkey's invasion of Cypress as a half-success, since it was unable to capture the entire island).  It's no coincidence that those are also the countries that have invested the most in their militaries over that time.

It's true that technological advances over the past 30 years have probably made amphibious operations easier.  Communications are easier; you're not going to get lost on the way to the landing beach owing to GPS; helicopters can facilitate the landing.  But the same technological advances also aid defenders.  It's impossible to imagine that a Chinese amphibious assault would achieve strategic or even tactical surprise.  

And, let's be real honest here--the Chinese military is fundamentally untested.  They have no combat experience.  Since the Korean War, they had one month-long war with Vietnam, and that's it.  There were a few border fights with India and the Soviet Union, but no major military operations.  Their troops have never seen battle, and their processes have never been combat-tested.  

To assume that China can invade Taiwan, you have to assume that a military that is rife with corruption and that hasn't seen combat in more than a generation is going to be able to pull off a major amphibious operation in its first engagement of a war against a significant regional power (and likely against a global superpower).  

I'm not buying that.

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Humble Beast

Humble Beast 258

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28 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

China simply doesn't have the ability to invade Taiwan.  

An invasion of Taiwan would involve a massive amphibious operation, and the Chinese military just isn't up to it.  Amphibious operations are about the hardest thing to do in warfare.  It's not just combined-arms.  It's combined-arms across air, land, and sea.  Russia has shown us how hard combined arms is just across the army; now imagine trying to do it across all three service branches.

In the past century, the only countries that have successfully pulled off large-scale amphibious operations are the United States and the United Kingdom (I'm going to count Turkey's invasion of Cypress as a half-success, since it was unable to capture the entire island).  It's no coincidence that those are also the countries that have invested the most in their militaries over that time.

It's true that technological advances over the past 30 years have probably made amphibious operations easier.  Communications are easier; you're not going to get lost on the way to the landing beach owing to GPS; helicopters can facilitate the landing.  But the same technological advances also aid defenders.  It's impossible to imagine that a Chinese amphibious assault would achieve strategic or even tactical surprise.  

And, let's be real honest here--the Chinese military is fundamentally untested.  They have no combat experience.  Since the Korean War, they had one month-long war with Vietnam, and that's it.  There were a few border fights with India and the Soviet Union, but no major military operations.  Their troops have never seen battle, and their processes have never been combat-tested.  

To assume that China can invade Taiwan, you have to assume that a military that is rife with corruption and that hasn't seen combat in more than a generation is going to be able to pull off a major amphibious operation in its first engagement of a war against a significant regional power (and likely against a global superpower).  

I'm not buying that.

All good points. 
 

China/Taiwan resolution is tough to predict. Internal Chinese matters are kind of geopolitical “black box”. We on the outside are only able to go off what info we’re allowed to consume.
 

I know Xi is trying to solidify power in October. Essentially become ruler for life. But then there’s the real estate/private sector leverage. Supposed bank runs thwarted. Also evidently there’s a Shanghai cohort of elites that are unhappy with Xi, but again really hard to tell what’s what. 

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BabaYaga

BabaYaga 15286

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16 hours ago, Humble Beast said:

All good points. 
 

China/Taiwan resolution is tough to predict. Internal Chinese matters are kind of geopolitical “black box”. We on the outside are only able to go off what info we’re allowed to consume.
 

I know Xi is trying to solidify power in October. Essentially become ruler for life. But then there’s the real estate/private sector leverage. Supposed bank runs thwarted. Also evidently there’s a Shanghai cohort of elites that are unhappy with Xi, but again really hard to tell what’s what. 

Problem is Xi has the same compulsive unification dream with Taiwan that Putin has with "Mother Russia" - reports are Xi sees this as his legacy and destiny 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89618

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16 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

Amphibious operations are about the hardest thing to do in warfare.  It's not just combined-arms.  It's combined-arms across air, land, and sea.  Russia has shown us how hard combined arms is just across the army; now imagine trying to do it across all three service branches.

Russia can’t even keep pontoon bridges up over rivers less than half a mile wide, where Russia ostensibly controls one side of the river.

China has less than a dozen large modern amphibious assault ships, and there is just no way that all of them will make it across the 100 miles to where they can offload smaller landing craft.  And every one of those ships that goes down to modern missiles, that’s nearly a thousand amphibious assault personnel and sailors that are wiped off the map.  

Trying to do it solely by air is worse, because that means no decent armor or artillery, and the pilots would have to fly 100+ miles there and 100+ miles back over heavily contested airspace.  And the area they’d be landing in would be far more deadly than Normandy.  The idea of a Normandy/Band of Brothers-style airborne assault into heavily contested territory is dead and buried.

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