China and Taiwan. Not good.

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

15 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Ah yes, noted military analyst Hollywood Colt.

There are no dumb ideas. Hell, Rocko worked in military intelligence, right?

[Mullet Free 40]

8 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Ah yes, noted military analyst Hollywood Colt.

Who else wanna fuck with Hollywood Colt? 
 

Evidently Schulz. 
 

5 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

What are you fucking babbling about Crispy?

Your certainty on all these matters is amusing, especially considering China as a whole is basically a black box to much of the West. Especially to rando internet posters. Do you really know what’s going on there? Of course not.
 

One of the few known things is they take the issue of Taiwan very seriously. Like probably their #1 priority. To me, that means any and all options are on the table for them. Like Russia with regards to Ukraine, they’re likely to go way past what we would think is reasonable or “smart” in pursuing their goals. I hope we’re really prepared to go all the way if that’s what we’re publicly signaling. Our bluff will be called imo. 

[Schulz2.0 28951]

27 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

There are no dumb ideas. Hell, Rocko worked in military intelligence, right?

I think it's very possible, even probable, China tries to take Taiwan for the same reasons Putin went for Ukraine. There's plenty of evidence that Xi removing all competition means he's getting bad information from his yes men. I think it's unlikely China would win. If they were able to take Taiwan, I do think the Taiwanese would sabotage their foundries instead of letting the Chinese have them. I think our sanctions, economic and not exporting food, would fuck them hard within a year at most.

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

8 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

I think it's very possible, even probable, China tries to take Taiwan for the same reasons Putin went for Ukraine. There's plenty of evidence that Xi removing all competition means he's getting bad information from his yes men. I think it's unlikely China would win. If they were able to take Taiwan, I do think the Taiwanese would sabotage their foundries instead of letting the Chinese have them. I think our sanctions, economic and not exporting food, would fuck them hard within a year at most.

I also think that as our economies decouple the odds of conflict increase.

Basically if you pictured that gamecast prediction trend line, IMO it’s steadily trending up.

[Schulz2.0 28951]

1 minute ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

I also think that as our economies decouple the odds of conflict increase.

Basically if you pictured that gamecast prediction trend line, IMO it’s steadily trending up.

I think it's very possible because there are a lot of similarities between Putin and Xi that would lead both into disastrous wars they didn't need to start.

[atomheartbevo 89623]

1 hour ago, Mullet Free said:

One of the few known things is they take the issue of Taiwan very seriously. Like probably their #1 priority. To me, that means any and all options are on the table for them. Like Russia with regards to Ukraine, they’re likely to go way past what we would think is reasonable or “smart” in pursuing their goals. I hope we’re really prepared to go all the way if that’s what we’re publicly signaling. Our bluff will be called imo. 

10 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

I think it's very possible, even probable, China tries to take Taiwan for the same reasons Putin went for Ukraine. There's plenty of evidence that Xi removing all competition means he's getting bad information from his yes men. I think it's unlikely China would win. If they were able to take Taiwan, I do think the Taiwanese would sabotage their foundries instead of letting the Chinese have them. I think our sanctions, economic and not exporting food, would fuck them hard within a year at most.

I don't even think it would take that long to fuck the Chinese economy over - we caught some glimpses of how fragile it can be with COVID and with that little snafu in the Suez Canal with just one ship.

We shut down American ports to Chinese freighters, as do quite a few allies, we and other allies shut down our food exports to China, and things get dicey for China.  While Brazil passed us up as China's top food supplier a few years ago because of the trade war back in 2018-2019, we, plus Canada, Australia, and New Zealand are still responsible for close to 25% of their food (and maybe more, they've had some weather issues with their crops).  China's biggest problem next to demographics, and in the short term is a far worse problem, is that they are way too reliant on external food sources.

[Horn Dog 9816]

So if hypothetically China invades Taiwan and we impose harsh sanctions and/or declare war, would we then be able to declare the trillions we owe them void and solve our national debt crisis?

[atomheartbevo 89623]

2 hours ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

I’m sure it doesn’t work this way but I picture the US government constantly updating their probability of an event taking place like that ESPN gamecast prediction thing that gives a win percentage likelihood based on what’s happening.

We've had plans/wargames for all kinds of scenarios going back well over a century - hell, Billy Mitchell (the pilot, not the Donkey Kong player) put out a 325-page report/war game exercise in 1924 about a Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor that was pretty fucking spot on given the lack of aircraft carriers/techniques, and in the 1930s we had actual plans/war gaming exercises for all of the scenarios we faced in WWII (from single fronts in a single ocean with a single enemy to conflicts in all major oceans and continents with multiple enemies).  Given computer wargaming these days, it's even easier to gin up such plans/forecasts.

We probably have a scenario for taking on Nauru.

2 hours ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

If that existed, I wonder what that has looked like overtime with regards to the likelihood of an armed conflict with China…?

Probably pretty low, since not many countries are foolish enough to truly fuck with us.

Look at all of the threats about nuclear weapons and attacking our cities and bases (including nuking Washington D.C.) that Putin's people have pushed on Russian state TV trying to scare us into not supporting Ukraine, and not only do we keep on supporting Ukraine, but our President went to Kyiv.  Our military is geared for fighting over great distances.

[atomheartbevo 89623]

2 hours ago, SmokeyTheBear said:

 I just think you have to factor in an autocrats desperation to stay in power. It's a wildcard in a situation we all see going one way logically.

If we and just a handful of allies with skin directly in the game (US, Australia/NZ, Japan, Canada, South Korea), but even if it was just the USA, shut down trade with China and and we shut down 20% (or more) of their food imports, China's 2 million-man army is going to have a bit of a problem that goes beyond welding apartment doors shut like they did during COVID.  Will it be 50 Tienanmen Squares? 100?  200? That should scare the shit out of them.

They already aren't making enough babies, and if we put them on the path to starvation....and then there is that little problem with insurance carriers dropping insurance for Chinese ships in a newly-created warzone of China's own doing, which means even more grain and other foods won't be making it into Chinese ports...

2 hours ago, SmokeyTheBear said:

The past couple years, and I think the next couple years, the world seems to be in an inflection point. So many new and extreme circumstances happening regularly. My main fear is that within this adjustment of globalization, there is a shrinking window for China to get to the next step of their main goals. The west is having a cultural and economic push away from them, their biggest ally is faltering, the west is reuniting and building in power, Japan is starting to build a military back, and all with tons of internal issues. That's a shit load of challenges. The logical play is that he rebuilds his partnerships with the west as best he can, but at this point, it wouldn't be a real partnership anymore than the partnership we have had with Russia up until the war. I'm not saying he is going to attack, but fuck, if you have learned anything in the past few years, it should be that any crazyfuckingthing is possible. 

I know crazy fucking shit can happen, but I think Xi sees a lot more of what's going on than Putin does and they have a lot more to worry about economically, because Xi and his people have acknowledged the Western sanctions on Russia, so on some level it's crossed their minds.

We are at a major inflection point, no doubt.  China has been gifted the opportunity to move into the #2 slot way faster than anticipated.  Japan and South Korea are beefing up their military forces, we are more active in the Pacific areas, we are refocusing the Marine Corps on the Pacific theater, India and Vietnam are taking business away from China, and speaking of India, Modi is a Hindu nationalist and will happily take as much business and influence away from China as he can.

China can still reel it back in and rebuild relationships, it has the money, and it can refocus itself back to its long-term plans in Africa and South America.

For what it's worth, I think the true inflection point we will see is when Putin dies or is overthrown, and that will impact China. I think if China was truly going to militarily try to take Taiwan and its foundries anytime soon, they should have already done it, instead of watching as more weapons flow to Taiwan, and as more Asian and Western defense companies ramp up production of a wide range of systems.

[Mullet Free 40]

52 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

 

 

42 minutes ago, Horn Dog said:

So if hypothetically China invades Taiwan and we impose harsh sanctions and/or declare war, would we then be able to declare the trillions we owe them void and solve our national debt crisis?

Our national debt is $31.5 trillion. China holds less than $1T of it. 

[Schulz2.0 28951]

45 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I don't even think it would take that long to fuck the Chinese economy over - we caught some glimpses of how fragile it can be with COVID and with that little snafu in the Suez Canal with just one ship.

We shut down American ports to Chinese freighters, as do quite a few allies, we and other allies shut down our food exports to China, and things get dicey for China.  While Brazil passed us up as China's top food supplier a few years ago because of the trade war back in 2018-2019, we, plus Canada, Australia, and New Zealand are still responsible for close to 25% of their food (and maybe more, they've had some weather issues with their crops).  China's biggest problem next to demographics, and in the short term is a far worse problem, is that they are way too reliant on external food sources.

I would expect Canada and Australia to join us in any sanctions, including agriculture. If it's during an El Niño year, or if Russia's fertilizer system goes to shit, expect the South American crops to go to shit.

[flatdawgs 1277]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

We probably have a scenario for taking on Nauru.

Fuck around with Bird Shit Island; find out.

[YGIFS 19449]

Have we tried thoughts and prayers yet?  That always seems to work, no?  

[Neonmoon 38129]

7 hours ago, Horn Dog said:

So if hypothetically China invades Taiwan and we impose harsh sanctions and/or declare war, would we then be able to declare the trillions we owe them void and solve our national debt crisis?

China only owns around 878 billion of US debt. Japan is the largest foreign country with 1.1 Trillion. Most of the debt is owned by US citizens. Only 7 of 30 Trillion is owned by foreign countries. 

Declaring 3% of our debt void won’t erase our national debt. 

[Schulz2.0 28951]

2 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

Declaring 3% of our debt void won’t erase our national debt. 

Not with that attitude.

[RPM 26315]

We should start building an artificial island between China and Taiwan, make it the 51st state and call it FAFO Island. 

[Horn Dog 9816]

4 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

China only owns around 878 billion of US debt. Japan is the largest foreign country with 1.1 Trillion. Most of the debt is owned by US citizens. Only 7 of 30 Trillion is owned by foreign countries. 

Declaring 3% of our debt void won’t erase our national debt. 

So maybe at least a free round of drinks?

[Schulz2.0 28951]

 

[YGIFS 19449]

But won't that mean we're cowering to Chyna?  Somehow?  Please?  Maybe?  Right?  

[Chopper 17230]

Baker Institute for Public Policy at Rice published a study last week:

https://www.bakerinstitute.org/research/annexation-taiwan-defeat-which-us-and-its-allies-could-not-retreat

links to a pdf version of the research 

[JMFP 1120]

 

[BurntEyes 5957]

46 minutes ago, JMFP said:

 

I completely missed this story, which doesn't surprise me. That said, China getting its panties in a twist over a minor gaf by what a WWE wrestler and entertaining actor said is hilarious.

[shakahorn 1645]

1 hour ago, Chopper said:

Baker Institute for Public Policy at Rice published a study last week:

https://www.bakerinstitute.org/research/annexation-taiwan-defeat-which-us-and-its-allies-could-not-retreat

links to a pdf version of the research 

Admittedly I haven't read past the exec summary, but what part of this paper is not 'thank you captain obvious?'

[Braff Zacklin 13552]

1 hour ago, JMFP said:

 

Now apologize to the people of Taiwan, you cro-magnon fuck.

(Written from the safety of being nowhere near Mr. Cena.)

[Parliament 14233]

John Cena seems like an otherwise genuinely good person.  I'm gonna grit my teeth and give him a pass on this one.

[BamaATL 16593]

1 minute ago, Parliament said:

John Cena seems like an otherwise genuinely good person.  I'm gonna grit my teeth and give him a pass on this one.

He also butters his bread via major media company's like, if memory serves in this case, Disney.  They bow down to China because they want access to a media market with a billion people.  

Cena had at point, and this may still be true, had granted more wishes in the Make a Wish program than anyone.  

[Braff Zacklin 13552]

Yup. Don't think John Cena is a bad guy. Just misguided here. Like, how much money do you need, bro? Would've thought he had accumulated enough to be independent by now.

Mostly just disappointed that he would do something like this. But not surprised, unfortunately.

[BamaATL 16593]

4 minutes ago, Braff Zacklin said:

Yup. Don't think John Cena is a bad guy. Just misguided here. Like, how much money do you need, bro? Would've thought he had accumulated enough to be independent by now.

Mostly just disappointed that he would do something like this. But not surprised, unfortunately.

Well, the reality is that if he doesn't do that, he's likely in breach of contract for promotional purposes.  So it isn't that he'd necessarily just lose potential future roles, the possibility exists that the studio would sue him.  

Don't forget, this is Disney, you know the "family friendly" company, that does it's damn best to bankrupt every family in the world.  Also the largest casino owner in the world.   They could give a damn about global right and wrong.  

[Armybrat 40821]

[Braff Zacklin 13552]

4 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Well, the reality is that if he doesn't do that, he's likely in breach of contract for promotional purposes.  So it isn't that he'd necessarily just lose potential future roles, the possibility exists that the studio would sue him.  

Don't forget, this is Disney, you know the "family friendly" company, that does it's damn best to bankrupt every family in the world.  Also the largest casino owner in the world.   They could give a damn about global right and wrong.  

Reminds me of a line from Waking the Dead. Forgive me, it's been decades and I'm paraphrasing here, but it went to the effect of:

When you join a corrupt system, you become a part of that corruption.

Edited August 7 by Braff Zacklin

[BamaATL 16593]

1 minute ago, Braff Zacklin said:

Reminds me of a line from Waking the Dead. Forgive me, it's been decades and I'm paraphrasing here, but it went to the effect of:

When you join a corrupt system, you become a part of that corruption.

Let me put it this way, if Disney thought they could put a Putin Land in their theme parks and shake a dollar out of it, they'd do it so quickly your head would spin.  

[InkaUtexas 25857]

Wondering if WWE is working on an event live from the Great Wall or some thing like that.

[Braff Zacklin 13552]

1 minute ago, BamaATL said:

Let me put it this way, if Disney thought they could put a Putin Land in their theme parks and shake a dollar out of it, they'd do it so quickly your head would spin.  

[atomheartbevo 89623]

37 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Don't forget, this is Disney, you know the "family friendly" company, that does it's damn best to bankrupt every family in the world.  Also the largest casino owner in the world.   They could give a damn about global right and wrong.