China and Taiwan. Not good.

[BabaYaga 15202]

They'll try to choke off and starve the island more than likely.  They are watching closely the sanctions placed upon Russia that most anticipate would also be applied to China in this event.  My guess is most of their strategic planning is in this arena.  

Another option is incremental covert insertions over years (probably already happened).  Key assets to try and sabotage certain targets.   

[Ghost of LL 15348]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

Russia can’t even keep pontoon bridges up over rivers less than half a mile wide, where Russia ostensibly controls one side of the river.

China has less than a dozen large modern amphibious assault ships, and there is just no way that all of them will make it across the 100 miles to where they can offload smaller landing craft.  And every one of those ships that goes down to modern missiles, that’s nearly a thousand amphibious assault personnel and sailors that are wiped off the map.  

Trying to do it solely by air is worse, because that means no decent armor or artillery, and the pilots would have to fly 100+ miles there and 100+ miles back over heavily contested airspace.  And the area they’d be landing in would be far more deadly than Normandy.  The idea of a Normandy/Band of Brothers-style airborne assault into heavily contested territory is dead and buried.

And when those airborne troops do land, what happens then?  Hostemel Airport shows just how hard it is to coordinate an airborne insertion with an invasion force.  Your invasion force better be johnnie-on-the-spot, or else those airborne troops are going to get wiped the fuck out in fairly short order.

1 hour ago, BabaYaga said:

They'll try to choke off and starve the island more than likely.  They are watching closely the sanctions placed upon Russia that most anticipate would also be applied to China in this event.  My guess is most of their strategic planning is in this arena.  

Another option is incremental covert insertions over years (probably already happened).  Key assets to try and sabotage certain targets.   

And that's where they're going to get into a real shooting war with the United States (and Taiwan, and Japan, and South Korea, and Australia, and the UK).  The Chinese fleet is large and capable, but it doesn't have the ability to carry out a blockade of Taiwan against the United States Navy, much less a combined allied fleet.

And, by the way, in that kind of fight, don't sleep on Vietnam and the Philippines, which might join the fight just to get a punch in on China owing to China's ambitions in the South China Sea.  They'd love to see the PLAN crippled.  

[Schulz2.0 28748]

18 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

And, by the way, in that kind of fight, don't sleep on Vietnam and the Philippines, which might join the fight just to get a punch in on China owing to China's ambitions in the South China Sea.  They'd love to see the PLAN crippled.  

 

[MoJames 8240]

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-taiwan-politics-united-states-government-eaf869eb617c6c356b2708607ed15759

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

we couldn't find anywhere else that could make cheap shit?

[SydneyCarton 47809]

4 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

we couldn't find anywhere else that could make cheap shit?

I'm sure we can. But investment costs money, takes time, and probably requires what amounts to a population of slaves or indentured servants to get things at China level prices. And in the meantime, when prices for TVs and everything else go back up 800%, guess how happy American voters will be? Enduring hardship or austerity for a goal requires conviction. And, well...

[Schulz2.0 28748]

11 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

we couldn't find anywhere else that could make cheap shit?

Supposedly Chinese labor, on average, is now more expensive than Mexican labor. The issue is the sunk cost in facilities already built in China and the cost of building comparable facilities in Mexico.

[utee94 15742]

1 minute ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Supposedly Chinese labor, on average, is now more expensive than Mexican labor. The issue is the sunk cost in facilities already built in China and the cost of building comparable facilities in Mexico.

Yes, China is no longer considered a low-cost-producing nation for many of the goods that we shifted manufacturing over there for, in the first place.

As has been mentioned upthread, American and Western firms were already shifting out some of that manufacturing, and the COVID supply chain issues along with other issues, highlighted to other American firms, that there is significant risk associated with maintaining a large manufacturing base in China.  Many firms have already begun shifting manufacturing out, and more will follow.  

But it took decades to get where we are, and it will take quite a bit of time to change that, too.

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

I'm sure we can. But investment costs money, takes time, and probably requires what amounts to a population of slaves or indentured servants to get things at China level prices. And in the meantime, when prices for TVs and everything else go back up 800%, guess how happy American voters will be? Enduring hardship or austerity for a goal requires conviction. And, well...

Sorry, I meant decades ago before we decided to go all-in on a Communist government. Was there anybody saying “uhhh, you sure we should do this?”

Was the reward in China so much greater than the risk?

[SydneyCarton 47809]

5 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Sorry, I meant decades ago before we decided to go all-in on a Communist government. Was there anybody saying “uhhh, you sure we should do this?”

Was the reward in China so much greater than the risk?

And just think, opening the door to China was, until quite recently, considered the greatest accomplishment and the lasting legacy of Richard Nixon. Whoops. 

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

And just think, opening the door to China was, until quite recently, considered the greatest accomplishment and the lasting legacy of Richard Nixon. Whoops. 

I guess the theory was we'd give them a taste of that sweet, sweet capitalism and they'd become more progressive and want democracy?

[SydneyCarton 47809]

Just now, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

I guess the theory was we'd give them a taste of that sweet, sweet capitalism and they'd become more progressive and want democracy?

Probably. I wasn't born yet. That being said, I'm sure that was it, and to be honest that continues to be one of America's biggest pitches. I'm sure the concept of having a potential massive ally in Asia during the height of the Cold War was also seen as a pretty big potential chess piece. 

[Armybrat 40678]

11 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Sorry, I meant decades ago before we decided to go all-in on a Communist government. Was there anybody saying “uhhh, you sure we should do this?”

Was the reward in China so much greater than the risk?

Yeah, I knew it was a colossal mistake when Nixon started the kowtowing to the Chicoms fifty years ago and stabbed Taiwan in the back. 
Yes, it was the right move to establish a modicum of diplomatic relations, but not to go all in on outsourcing so much of our manufacturing to them.

[Schulz2.0 28748]

14 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Sorry, I meant decades ago before we decided to go all-in on a Communist government. Was there anybody saying “uhhh, you sure we should do this?”

Was the reward in China so much greater than the risk?

It was part of moving China away from the Soviets. It was a bribe. 

[Armybrat 40678]

[SydneyCarton 47809]

15 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

Americans don't want those jobs anymore. And American Corporations don't want Americans to have those jobs, pay those American level salaries, benefits, etc. But that's probably veering too close to the CR, so I'll kindly shut the fuck up and bugger off. 

[atomheartbevo 89353]

1 hour ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Sorry, I meant decades ago before we decided to go all-in on a Communist government. Was there anybody saying “uhhh, you sure we should do this?”

Was the reward in China so much greater than the risk?

1 hour ago, Schulz2.0 said:

It was part of moving China away from the Soviets. It was a bribe. 

That and we have a shitload of consumer goods available to a lot of income levels, that would not have been available to them in the past.  It's pretty irresistible to a lot of people.

Even if we aren't willing to move those back to the US, would be great if we could move them to Mexico/Central/South America, and everything would be a train track or two away.  We could offset the costs in higher salaries with the cost in transportation (and transit times) and we could use it to stabilize a bunch of countries, which would cut down on the pressure for a lot of people to immigrate elsewhere (including to the US).

It made sense to try and get China away from Russia's orbit, but Russia is in decline and China has us by the shorthairs.

[Parliament 14108]

1 hour ago, Armybrat said:

OK, boomer.

[DaggerHorns 3053]

My cotton grown in Texas, my boots handmade in El Paso, my gas and oil refined in Texas, my truck made in Michigan, my poncho shirt made in Texas, my guns made in Arizona and Croatia, my food from HEB, my phone can fuck right off.

[High Plains Drifter 10969]

 

this is worrisome, if half true.  @Ghost of LL , any comments?

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/27/opinion/a-war-with-china-would-reach-deep-into-american-society.html

 

Spoiler

 

 

 

Opinion

Guest Essay

A War With China Would Be Unlike Anything Americans Faced Before

Feb. 27, 2023

 

Credit...Ricardo Tomás

 

by Ross Babbage

Dr. Babbage is the author of the forthcoming book “The Next Major War: Can the U.S. and Its Allies Win Against China?”

 

A major war in the Indo-Pacific is probably more likely now than at any other time since World War II.

The most probable spark is a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. President Xi Jinping of China has said unifying Taiwan with mainland China “must be achieved.” His Communist Party regime has become sufficiently strong — militarily, economically and industrially — to take Taiwan and directly challenge the United States for regional supremacy.

The United States has vital strategic interests at stake. A successful Chinese invasion of Taiwan would punch a hole in the U.S. and allied chain of defenses in the region, seriously undermining America’s strategic position in the Western Pacific, and would probably cut off U.S. access to world-leading semiconductors and other critical components manufactured in Taiwan. As president, Joe Biden has stated repeatedly that he would defend Taiwan.

But leaders in Washington also need to avoid stumbling carelessly into a war with China because it would be unlike anything ever faced by Americans. U.S. citizens have grown accustomed to sending their military off to fight far from home. But China is a different kind of foe — a military, economic and technological power capable of making a war felt in the American homeland.

 

 

As a career strategic analyst and defense planner, including for Australia’s Defense Department, I have spent decades studying how a war could start, how it would play out and the military and nonmilitary operations that China is prepared to conduct. I am convinced that the challenges facing the United States are serious, and its citizens need to become better aware of them.

The military scenario alone is daunting: China would probably launch a lightning air, sea and cyber assault to seize control of key strategic targets on Taiwan within hours, before the United States and its allies could intervene. Taiwan is slightly bigger than the state of Maryland; if you recall how quickly Afghanistan and Kabul fell to the Taliban in 2021, you start to realize that the takeover of Taiwan could happen relatively quickly. China also has more than 1,350 ballistic and cruise missiles poised to strike U.S. and allied forces in Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and American-held territories in the Western Pacific. Then there’s the sheer difficulty the United States would face waging war thousands of miles across the Pacific against an adversary that has the world’s largest navy and Asia’s biggest air force.

 

Despite this, U.S. military planners would prefer to fight a conventional war. But the Chinese are prepared to wage a much broader type of warfare that would reach deep into American society.

Over the past decade, China has increasingly viewed the United States as mired in political and social crises. Mr. Xi, who likes to say that “the East is rising while the West is declining,” evidently feels that America’s greatest weakness is on its home front. And I believe he is ready to exploit this with a multipronged campaign to divide Americans and undermine and exhaust their will to engage in a prolonged conflict — what China’s military calls enemy disintegration.

Over the past two decades, China has built formidable political warfare and cyber warfare capabilities designed to penetrate, manipulate and disrupt the United States and allied governments, media organizations, businesses and civil society. If war were to break out, China can be expected to use this to disrupt communications and spread fake news and other disinformation. The aim would be to foster confusion, division and distrust and hinder decision making. China might compound this with electronic and probably some physical attacks on satellites or related infrastructure.

 

These operations would most likely be accompanied by cyber offensives to disrupt electricity, gas, water, transport, health care and other public services. China has demonstrated its capabilities already, including in Taiwan, where it has waged disinformation campaigns, and in serious hacking incidents in the United States. Mr. Xi has championed China’s political warfare capabilities as a “magic weapon.”

China could also weaponize its dominance of supply chains and shipping. The impact on Americans would be profound.

The U.S. economy is heavily dependent on Chinese resources and manufactured goods, including many with military applications, and American consumers rely on moderately priced Chinese-made imports for everything from electronics to furniture to shoes. The bulk of these goods is transported aboard ships along sea lanes increasingly controlled by Chinese commercial interests that are ultimately answerable to China’s party-state. A war would halt this trade (as well as American and allied shipments to China).

U.S. supplies of many products could soon run low, paralyzing a vast range of businesses. It could take months to restore trade, and emergency rationing of some items would be needed. Inflation and unemployment would surge, especially in the period in which the economy is repurposed for the war effort, which might include some automobile manufacturers switching to building aircraft or food-processing companies converting to production of priority pharmaceuticals. Stock exchanges in the United States and other countries might temporarily halt trading because of the enormous economic uncertainties.

The United States might be forced to confront the shocking realization that the industrial muscle instrumental in victories like that in World War II — President Franklin Roosevelt’s concept of America as “the arsenal of democracy” — has withered and been surpassed by China.

 

 

China is now the dominant global industrial power by many measures. In 2004 U.S. manufacturing output was more than twice China’s; in 2021, China’s output was double that of the United States. China produces more ships, steel and smartphones than any other country and is a world leader in the production of chemicals, metals, heavy industrial equipment and electronics — the basic building blocks of a military-industrial economy.

Critically, the United States is no longer able to outproduce China in advanced weapons and other supplies needed in a war, which the current one in Ukraine has made clear. Provision of military hardware to Kyiv has depleted American stocks of some key military systems. Rebuilding them could take years. Yet the war in Ukraine is relatively small-scale compared with the likely demands of a major war in the Indo-Pacific.

So what needs to be done?

On the military front, the United States should accelerate programs already underway to strengthen and disperse American forces in the Western Pacific to make them less vulnerable to attacks by China. At home, a concerted effort must be made to find ways to better protect U.S. traditional and social media against Chinese disinformation. Supply chains of some critical goods and services need to be reconfigured to shift production to the United States or allied nations, and the United States must pursue a longer-term strategic drive to restore its dominance in global manufacturing.

Building a stronger deterrence by addressing such weaknesses is the best means of averting war. But this will take time. Until then, it is important for Washington to avoid provocations and maintain a civil discourse with Beijing.

The high-altitude balloon that drifted across the United States this month was seen by many Americans as a shocking Chinese breach of U.S. sovereignty. It may turn out to be child’s play compared with the havoc China could wreak on the American homeland in a war.

 

 

Ross Babbage is a nonresident senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments in Washington and the C.E.O. of Strategic Forum in Canberra, Australia. He has served in a number of Australian government agencies and been a senior adviser to several Australian defense ministers.

 

 

China also has more than 1,350 ballistic and cruise missiles poised to strike U.S. and allied forces in Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and American-held territories in the Western Pacific. Then there’s the sheer difficulty the United States would face waging war thousands of miles across the Pacific against an adversary that has the world’s largest navy and Asia’s biggest air force.

...

The United States might be forced to confront the shocking realization that the industrial muscle instrumental in victories like that in World War II — President Franklin Roosevelt’s concept of America as “the arsenal of democracy” — has withered and been surpassed by China.

China is now the dominant global industrial power by many measures. In 2004 U.S. manufacturing output was more than twice China’s; in 2021, China’s output was double that of the United States. China produces more ships, steel and smartphones than any other country and is a world leader in the production of chemicals, metals, heavy industrial equipment and electronics — the basic building blocks of a military-industrial economy.

Critically, the United States is no longer able to outproduce China in advanced weapons and other supplies needed in a war, which the current one in Ukraine has made clear. Provision of military hardware to Kyiv has depleted American stocks of some key military systems. Rebuilding them could take years. Yet the war in Ukraine is relatively small-scale compared with the likely demands of a major war in the Indo-Pacific.

[NeverMarryAStripper 21780]

That’s exactly why they will supply weapons to Russia. 

[atomheartbevo 89353]

4 hours ago, DaggerHorns said:

My cotton grown in Texas, my boots handmade in El Paso, my gas and oil refined in Texas, my truck made in Michigan, my poncho shirt made in Texas, my guns made in Arizona and Croatia, my food from HEB, my phone can fuck right off.

Why isn't your truck made in Texas?

[atomheartbevo 89353]

18 minutes ago, High Plains Drifter said:

China also has more than 1,350 ballistic and cruise missiles poised to strike U.S. and allied forces in Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and American-held territories in the Western Pacific. Then there’s the sheer difficulty the United States would face waging war thousands of miles across the Pacific against an adversary that has the world’s largest navy and Asia’s biggest air force.

A war between China and the US completely destroys the Chinese economy. There's no recovery from it, there's nothing that can replace American purchasing power, Japan and South Korea will crank out some nukes of their own.  Without access to American, Japanese, or South Korean ports, and toss in Australia, Canada, and possibly India (who wants to see China knocked down), and quite a few European countries, China fucking dies on this hill.

China did not spend the last 40-50 years building up this economy, building up this massive manufacturing infrastructure to sell rubber dog shit and HDTVs to the US and its allies, only to then completely shit the bed and wreck 40 years of investments and infrastructures because they want to go to war with the US.

[YChang 3430]

4 hours ago, DaggerHorns said:

My cotton grown in Texas, my boots handmade in El Paso, my gas and oil refined in Texas, my truck made in Michigan, my poncho shirt made in Texas, my guns made in Arizona and Croatia, my food from HEB, my phone can fuck right off.

The thing is… would you be surprised how much of what you described isn’t true? Assembled in the US isn’t exactly made in the US. Especially your vehicle . 

[bolverk 29356]

5 hours ago, DaggerHorns said:

My cotton grown in Texas, my boots handmade in El Paso, my gas and oil refined in Texas, my truck made in Michigan, my poncho shirt made in Texas, my guns made in Arizona and Croatia, my food from HEB, my phone can fuck right off.

The cotton part may not last much longer.

(Free link to avoid paywall)

[Handcruser 2805]

That’s exactly why they will supply weapons to Russia. 

Yup.

Bleed our stock.

[Rimbo 25748]

So... do you think our defensive line ca 2008 would be able to stifle a Ukrainian tank assault?

[FartingMonk 3606]

49 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

So... do you think our defensive line ca 2008 would be able to stifle a Ukrainian tank assault?

We will derail them in Ohio 

[atomheartbevo 89353]

13 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

We will derail them in Ohio 

[FartingMonk 3606]

21 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

We will freeze them out in Texas?

[Eastwood 4394]

The US home front is weak, but not with regards to China. China is one of the few issues where there is a majority consensus. Human rights abuses, environmental destruction, and how they handled COVID has created a unified front against China in the US for at least another 10 years. 
 

China may even have more bad will in the US than Russia currently has and that’s saying something. 

[YGIFS 19449]

I'd like to think you're right, but I know of a recent and very predominant leader that praised highly Xi and Putin within the same paragraph.  

[atomheartbevo 89353]

16 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

I'd like to think you're right, but I know of a recent and very predominant leader that praised highly Xi and Putin within the same paragraph.  

Plenty/most Americans still blame China for COVID.

[YGIFS 19449]

And I agree with them.  What I never thought would happen is duly elected officials praising Pres. Xi for his handling of Covid.  

I think it was a lab mistake.  And I think Taiwan should make them pay.  Hot take, I know.

[CooterBrown 17868]

A war between China and the US completely destroys the Chinese economy.

Day one of an invasion of Taiwan, seize all Chinese owned property, accounts, and businesses in the US. Deport all Chinese nationals at US universities.

[Parliament 14108]

9 hours ago, FartingMonk said:

We will derail them in Ohio 

Too soon.

[Mullet Free 40]

10 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

A war between China and the US completely destroys the Chinese economy. There's no recovery from it, there's nothing that can replace American purchasing power, Japan and South Korea will crank out some nukes of their own.  Without access to American, Japanese, or South Korean ports, and toss in Australia, Canada, and possibly India (who wants to see China knocked down), and quite a few European countries, China fucking dies on this hill.

China did not spend the last 40-50 years building up this economy, building up this massive manufacturing infrastructure to sell rubber dog shit and HDTVs to the US and its allies, only to then completely shit the bed and wreck 40 years of investments and infrastructures because they want to go to war with the US.

Let's assume that you're correct.  Unfortunately, there's a historic parallel where an Asian nation sees its access to vital resources severely restricted and then feels compelled to attack even in the face of very poor odds of long-term success.

Japan, 1941, oil

China, 2022-3, chips

 

 

[CHIEF 5055]

25 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

 

Day one of an invasion of Taiwan, seize all Chinese owned property, accounts, and businesses in the US. Deport all Chinese nationals at US universities.

 

Round one of sanctions. We ought to threaten it just for them “ saber rattling. “

CHIEF

[Murfdogg21 4412]

20 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Supposedly Chinese labor, on average, is now more expensive than Mexican labor. The issue is the sunk cost in facilities already built in China and the cost of building comparable facilities in Mexico.

I manage a lot of international manufacturing assets for medical devices and healthcare products. Chinese labor (particularly in the biggest cities) is more expensive than many other countries. Unbelievably, Eastern Europe (Romania, Hungary, Poland) are cheaper than China and Japan. The cheapest labor is Malaysia and Thailand, followed by India.
 

Central America is someone in the middle and I’ve been encouraged at how many upper executives have become open to paying 1-2% more and going to Mexico, Costa Rica, and Honduras because there is peace of mind from not being further invested in China. Stronger economies in those countries also give the USA indirect benefits in how we support them (or don’t), immigration, etc. [Stereotype on] On the technical side, most project calls or bid proposal meetings I have with Central America makes me feel like they want to be your partner and a resource as you grow together. Most calls I have with China make me feel like they just want our cash and don’t give a shit about anything else, while there are five guys off-camera taking notes and ready to rip us off. 

[TwiceHorn 31179]

9 minutes ago, Murfdogg21 said:

I manage a lot of international manufacturing assets for medical devices and healthcare products. Chinese labor (particularly in the biggest cities) is more expensive than many other countries. Unbelievably, Eastern Europe (Romania, Hungary, Poland) are cheaper than China and Japan. The cheapest labor is Malaysia and Thailand, followed by India.
 

Central America is someone in the middle and I’ve been encouraged at how many upper executives have become open to paying 1-2% more and going to Mexico, Costa Rica, and Honduras because there is peace of mind from not being further invested in China. Stronger economies in those countries also give the USA indirect benefits in how we support them (or don’t), immigration, etc. [Stereotype on] On the technical side, most project calls or bid proposal meetings I have with Central America makes me feel like they want to be your partner and a resource as you grow together. Most calls I have with China make me feel like they just want our cash and don’t give a shit about anything else, while there are five guys off-camera taking notes and ready to rip us off. 

It really is kind of bizarre, for a collectivist culture, how self-interested Chinese seem to become in commercial endeavors.  They make Wall Street look like altruists. Just a lot of weirdness there.

[Ghost of LL 15348]

11 hours ago, High Plains Drifter said:

 

this is worrisome, if half true.  @Ghost of LL , any comments?

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/27/opinion/a-war-with-china-would-reach-deep-into-american-society.html

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

 

Opinion

Guest Essay

A War With China Would Be Unlike Anything Americans Faced Before

Feb. 27, 2023

 

Credit...Ricardo Tomás

 

by Ross Babbage

Dr. Babbage is the author of the forthcoming book “The Next Major War: Can the U.S. and Its Allies Win Against China?”

 

 

A major war in the Indo-Pacific is probably more likely now than at any other time since World War II.

The most probable spark is a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. President Xi Jinping of China has said unifying Taiwan with mainland China “must be achieved.” His Communist Party regime has become sufficiently strong — militarily, economically and industrially — to take Taiwan and directly challenge the United States for regional supremacy.

The United States has vital strategic interests at stake. A successful Chinese invasion of Taiwan would punch a hole in the U.S. and allied chain of defenses in the region, seriously undermining America’s strategic position in the Western Pacific, and would probably cut off U.S. access to world-leading semiconductors and other critical components manufactured in Taiwan. As president, Joe Biden has stated repeatedly that he would defend Taiwan.

But leaders in Washington also need to avoid stumbling carelessly into a war with China because it would be unlike anything ever faced by Americans. U.S. citizens have grown accustomed to sending their military off to fight far from home. But China is a different kind of foe — a military, economic and technological power capable of making a war felt in the American homeland.

 

As a career strategic analyst and defense planner, including for Australia’s Defense Department, I have spent decades studying how a war could start, how it would play out and the military and nonmilitary operations that China is prepared to conduct. I am convinced that the challenges facing the United States are serious, and its citizens need to become better aware of them.

The military scenario alone is daunting: China would probably launch a lightning air, sea and cyber assault to seize control of key strategic targets on Taiwan within hours, before the United States and its allies could intervene. Taiwan is slightly bigger than the state of Maryland; if you recall how quickly Afghanistan and Kabul fell to the Taliban in 2021, you start to realize that the takeover of Taiwan could happen relatively quickly. China also has more than 1,350 ballistic and cruise missiles poised to strike U.S. and allied forces in Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and American-held territories in the Western Pacific. Then there’s the sheer difficulty the United States would face waging war thousands of miles across the Pacific against an adversary that has the world’s largest navy and Asia’s biggest air force.

 

Despite this, U.S. military planners would prefer to fight a conventional war. But the Chinese are prepared to wage a much broader type of warfare that would reach deep into American society.

Over the past decade, China has increasingly viewed the United States as mired in political and social crises. Mr. Xi, who likes to say that “the East is rising while the West is declining,” evidently feels that America’s greatest weakness is on its home front. And I believe he is ready to exploit this with a multipronged campaign to divide Americans and undermine and exhaust their will to engage in a prolonged conflict — what China’s military calls enemy disintegration.

Over the past two decades, China has built formidable political warfare and cyber warfare capabilities designed to penetrate, manipulate and disrupt the United States and allied governments, media organizations, businesses and civil society. If war were to break out, China can be expected to use this to disrupt communications and spread fake news and other disinformation. The aim would be to foster confusion, division and distrust and hinder decision making. China might compound this with electronic and probably some physical attacks on satellites or related infrastructure.

 

These operations would most likely be accompanied by cyber offensives to disrupt electricity, gas, water, transport, health care and other public services. China has demonstrated its capabilities already, including in Taiwan, where it has waged disinformation campaigns, and in serious hacking incidents in the United States. Mr. Xi has championed China’s political warfare capabilities as a “magic weapon.”

China could also weaponize its dominance of supply chains and shipping. The impact on Americans would be profound.

The U.S. economy is heavily dependent on Chinese resources and manufactured goods, including many with military applications, and American consumers rely on moderately priced Chinese-made imports for everything from electronics to furniture to shoes. The bulk of these goods is transported aboard ships along sea lanes increasingly controlled by Chinese commercial interests that are ultimately answerable to China’s party-state. A war would halt this trade (as well as American and allied shipments to China).

U.S. supplies of many products could soon run low, paralyzing a vast range of businesses. It could take months to restore trade, and emergency rationing of some items would be needed. Inflation and unemployment would surge, especially in the period in which the economy is repurposed for the war effort, which might include some automobile manufacturers switching to building aircraft or food-processing companies converting to production of priority pharmaceuticals. Stock exchanges in the United States and other countries might temporarily halt trading because of the enormous economic uncertainties.

The United States might be forced to confront the shocking realization that the industrial muscle instrumental in victories like that in World War II — President Franklin Roosevelt’s concept of America as “the arsenal of democracy” — has withered and been surpassed by China.

 

China is now the dominant global industrial power by many measures. In 2004 U.S. manufacturing output was more than twice China’s; in 2021, China’s output was double that of the United States. China produces more ships, steel and smartphones than any other country and is a world leader in the production of chemicals, metals, heavy industrial equipment and electronics — the basic building blocks of a military-industrial economy.

Critically, the United States is no longer able to outproduce China in advanced weapons and other supplies needed in a war, which the current one in Ukraine has made clear. Provision of military hardware to Kyiv has depleted American stocks of some key military systems. Rebuilding them could take years. Yet the war in Ukraine is relatively small-scale compared with the likely demands of a major war in the Indo-Pacific.

So what needs to be done?

On the military front, the United States should accelerate programs already underway to strengthen and disperse American forces in the Western Pacific to make them less vulnerable to attacks by China. At home, a concerted effort must be made to find ways to better protect U.S. traditional and social media against Chinese disinformation. Supply chains of some critical goods and services need to be reconfigured to shift production to the United States or allied nations, and the United States must pursue a longer-term strategic drive to restore its dominance in global manufacturing.

Building a stronger deterrence by addressing such weaknesses is the best means of averting war. But this will take time. Until then, it is important for Washington to avoid provocations and maintain a civil discourse with Beijing.

The high-altitude balloon that drifted across the United States this month was seen by many Americans as a shocking Chinese breach of U.S. sovereignty. It may turn out to be child’s play compared with the havoc China could wreak on the American homeland in a war.

 

Ross Babbage is a nonresident senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments in Washington and the C.E.O. of Strategic Forum in Canberra, Australia. He has served in a number of Australian government agencies and been a senior adviser to several Australian defense ministers.

 

 

China also has more than 1,350 ballistic and cruise missiles poised to strike U.S. and allied forces in Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and American-held territories in the Western Pacific. Then there’s the sheer difficulty the United States would face waging war thousands of miles across the Pacific against an adversary that has the world’s largest navy and Asia’s biggest air force.

...

The United States might be forced to confront the shocking realization that the industrial muscle instrumental in victories like that in World War II — President Franklin Roosevelt’s concept of America as “the arsenal of democracy” — has withered and been surpassed by China.

China is now the dominant global industrial power by many measures. In 2004 U.S. manufacturing output was more than twice China’s; in 2021, China’s output was double that of the United States. China produces more ships, steel and smartphones than any other country and is a world leader in the production of chemicals, metals, heavy industrial equipment and electronics — the basic building blocks of a military-industrial economy.

Critically, the United States is no longer able to outproduce China in advanced weapons and other supplies needed in a war, which the current one in Ukraine has made clear. Provision of military hardware to Kyiv has depleted American stocks of some key military systems. Rebuilding them could take years. Yet the war in Ukraine is relatively small-scale compared with the likely demands of a major war in the Indo-Pacific.

1,350 ballistic and cruise missiles is really not a lot.  Russia has used nearly that number against targets in Ukraine.  And that's just against Ukraine.  This article is talking about China launching against not just Taiwan, but also the United States, the Philippines, Japan, and South Korea.

They're going to need some more missiles.

And they're going to be able to manufacture them.  But herein lies the rub.  Manufacturing new missiles requires chips.  It requires fuel for the factories.  It requires food for the workers.  And China doesn't have enough of those things through domestic production.

I think I've been clear from the outset that war with China would be very, very bad.  It is something to be avoided if at all possible.  

But that war is a whole lot worse for China than it is for us.  Because fundamentally, China has no path to victory; we do.

[Mullet Free 40]

Wasn't sure where this actually fit, but here is as good a place any. Paper on economic warfare.

 

 

 

[Samson's Wig 3168]

12 hours ago, bolverk said:

The cotton part may not last much longer.

(Free link to avoid paywall)

Not the first time, and it won't be the last, that West Texas cotton is decimated by drought.  Something tells me this won't be the one that does them in for good.  Long term, I agree climate change will shift growing regions, but we're not there yet. 

[Orange&White 5516]

2 hours ago, CooterBrown said:

 

Day one of an invasion of Taiwan, providing weapons to Russia, seize all Chinese owned property, accounts, and businesses in the US. Deport all Chinese nationals at US universities.

 

fifm

[Smax 3799]

I heard a piece on either npr or BBC last week talking about Chinese manufacturing moving to Mexico. It was discussing some billion dollar commercial park outside Monterey and how one Chinese furniture maker is investing 400 million in new facilities there sight unseen.

Another issue driving this according to the interviewer was shipping costs. Prior to covid shipping was extremely inexpensive, as we all saw it went up during covid and has come down a little and setteled but nowhere close to pre covid levels.

It's going to be interesting to see how this plays out and successful the Chinese businesses will be without the state behind them.

[DaggerHorns 3053]

On 2/27/2023 at 10:45 PM, YChang said:

The thing is… would you be surprised how much of what you described isn’t true? Assembled in the US isn’t exactly made in the US. Especially your vehicle . 

Tell me which part isn’t true and then tell me exactly where my parts and truck is manufactured.

[YChang 3430]

1 hour ago, DaggerHorns said:

Tell me which part isn’t true and then tell me exactly where my parts and truck is manufactured.

I mean, I don't have access nor know where to search to that level of detail. But my overall point is that a lot of US automakers work with part suppliers in Mexico and Canada. There's a lot of parts being made there shipped to the US as part of final assembly. 

I wasn't trying to be a dick or anything, just saying that for a lot of the products we touch, the "made in the US" isn't necessarily a 100% accurate. 

[JMFP 1117]

On 2/27/2023 at 3:01 PM, Armybrat said:

I bet that picture was taken with one of these:

 

[MissingInAction 24765]

On 2/28/2023 at 9:44 AM, Mullet Free said:

Let's assume that you're correct.  Unfortunately, there's a historic parallel where an Asian nation sees its access to vital resources severely restricted and then feels compelled to attack even in the face of very poor odds of long-term success.

Japan, 1941, oil

China, 2022-3, chips

 

 

It's like you fox news parrots aren't even trying.

[DaggerHorns 3053]

4 hours ago, YChang said:

I mean, I don't have access nor know where to search to that level of detail. But my overall point is that a lot of US automakers work with part suppliers in Mexico and Canada. There's a lot of parts being made there shipped to the US as part of final assembly. 

I wasn't trying to be a dick or anything, just saying that for a lot of the products we touch, the "made in the US" isn't necessarily a 100% accurate. 

You didn’t answer my question or address your original claims. Cool posts!