China and Taiwan. Not good.

[YChang 3430]

24 minutes ago, DaggerHorns said:

You didn’t answer my question or address your original claims. Cool posts!

Hmm... I'm not really sure what you're missing from my previous comment. As to my original claim—I formed that opinion that what we often buy with made in America assumption is more likely assembled in US is based on info like this: https://www.ftc.gov/business-guidance/resources/complying-made-usa-standard

And it just made me think of our auto industry because of how global the supply chain is. This is from 2021: https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/052715/who-are-fords-f-main-suppliers.asp

Umm, as to your clothes, guns, etc... I don't know, All I'm saying it wouldn't' surprise me if some part the supply chain to make all those products came from out of the US. I really don't understand your attitude toward my response. I don't think I was attacking you or anything. Clearly I failed, but I was just trying to make a point how global manufacturing has become.

[atomheartbevo 89353]

On 2/28/2023 at 9:44 AM, Mullet Free said:

Let's assume that you're correct.  Unfortunately, there's a historic parallel where an Asian nation sees its access to vital resources severely restricted and then feels compelled to attack even in the face of very poor odds of long-term success.

Japan, 1941, oil

China, 2022-3, chips

Yeah, and how did that work out for Japan?

When we started restricting Japan's access to oil in 1940/1941, that affected Japan's ability to deploy its military forces or resupply those already deployed.

If we move some Chinese jobs back to the US because of the CHIPS Act or whatever, that is not going to harm China's ability to deploy its military forces one bit, and China will not attack us over the CHIPS Act.

But if you are so fucking stupid as to think that, then maybe the US should attack China for having taken a bunch of manufacturing jobs in the 1990s.  Maybe we should attack Walmart for outsourcing to China.  Maybe we should have attacked Japan in the 1970s and 1980s for taking a bunch of electronics jobs (and making our radios and TVs smaller) as well as car manufacturing jobs.  Maybe we should attack South Korea for taking jobs away from American boy bands.

 

[South Austin 52036]

50 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

maybe the US should attack China for having taken a bunch of manufacturing jobs in the 1990s.  Maybe we should attack Walmart for outsourcing to China.  Maybe we should have attacked Japan in the 1970s and 1980s for taking a bunch of electronics jobs (and making our radios and TVs smaller) as well as car manufacturing jobs.  Maybe we should attack South Korea for taking jobs away from American boy bands.

[DaggerHorns 3051]

4 hours ago, YChang said:

Clearly I failed, but I was just trying to make a point how global manufacturing has become.

You’re correct, you failed.

[Mullet Free 40]

19 hours ago, MissingInAction said:

It's like you fox news parrots aren't even trying.

That point comes from Fox News?

 

15 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Yeah, and how did that work out for Japan?

When we started restricting Japan's access to oil in 1940/1941, that affected Japan's ability to deploy its military forces or resupply those already deployed.

If we move some Chinese jobs back to the US because of the CHIPS Act or whatever, that is not going to harm China's ability to deploy its military forces one bit, and China will not attack us over the CHIPS Act.

But if you are so fucking stupid as to think that, then maybe the US should attack China for having taken a bunch of manufacturing jobs in the 1990s.  Maybe we should attack Walmart for outsourcing to China.  Maybe we should have attacked Japan in the 1970s and 1980s for taking a bunch of electronics jobs (and making our radios and TVs smaller) as well as car manufacturing jobs.  Maybe we should attack South Korea for taking jobs away from American boy bands.

 

Yeah woohoo how'd that work for Japan?! Come and get some!

It worked out poorly for Japan obviously. It wasn't great for anybody. That wasn't the point.

Some people here speak with such certainty about what will happen because they think they know what's best for these countries or what motivates them. When countries feel cornered they'll act in ways that others might feel is reckless or irrational.

I'm not just talking about the CHIPS Act. We also recently repatriated a large portion of the skilled workforce from their onshore semiconductor industry. Basically kneecapped their operations overnight. Chips are up there with energy and food for things that large economies and militaries must have. So I don't think we should be surprised at anything honestly.

I'm not even against these moves. It may be go time for us against China. I just hope our leaders are thinking more seriously about the consequences of our moves than some posters here do.

 

[Parliament 14108]

3 minutes ago, Mullet Free said:

I just hope our leaders are thinking more seriously about the consequences of our moves than some posters here do.

 

But in seriousness, I gotta say that once they recognized our vulnerabilities to China (as late as that was) our Government has pivoted pretty well.  Bad idea to all the sudden yank EVERYTHING.  We started with trade in 2017 and moved on from there over 6 years.  Tiktok needs to go away.  Need to ban it 

[SydneyCarton 47809]

I try my best not to pay attention to this shit, but Mullet Free is GRUHorn/Immaculate Vibes/Serial Pederast right?

[UnivTex34 1763]

1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

I try my best not to pay attention to this shit, but Mullet Free is GRUHorn/Immaculate Vibes/Serial Pederast right?

yup

[Ghost of LL 15348]

8 hours ago, Mullet Free said:

That point comes from Fox News?

 

Yeah woohoo how'd that work for Japan?! Come and get some!

It worked out poorly for Japan obviously. It wasn't great for anybody. That wasn't the point.

Some people here speak with such certainty about what will happen because they think they know what's best for these countries or what motivates them. When countries feel cornered they'll act in ways that others might feel is reckless or irrational.

I'm not just talking about the CHIPS Act. We also recently repatriated a large portion of the skilled workforce from their onshore semiconductor industry. Basically kneecapped their operations overnight. Chips are up there with energy and food for things that large economies and militaries must have. So I don't think we should be surprised at anything honestly.

I'm not even against these moves. It may be go time for us against China. I just hope our leaders are thinking more seriously about the consequences of our moves than some posters here do.

 

I think people who are not history professors ought to be real hesitant before drawing such tight historical parallels.  There's generally a lot of historical nuance that gets missed in Twitter-length parallels such as this.

Let it suffice to say that Japan's decision to go to war with the United States and the British Empire was the result of an idiosyncratic decision-making process and culture operating during a very different time in a different geopolitical set of circumstances.  Japan's actions in 1941--whether one believes them to be rational or irrational--are unique to Japan in 1941.  They don't do much to predict what China (which, last time I checked, is a different country) will do in 2023.

[Dbeasy 14953]

I saw a report two days ago that we are sending troops to Taiwan. Why hasn’t there been any other stories about this? Was it fake news?

[SydneyCarton 47809]

18 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

I saw a report two days ago that we are sending troops to Taiwan. Why hasn’t there been any other stories about this? Was it fake news?

Seems like it. 

[atomheartbevo 89353]

22 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Let it suffice to say that Japan's decision to go to war with the United States and the British Empire was the result of an idiosyncratic decision-making process and culture operating during a very different time in a different geopolitical set of circumstances.  Japan's actions in 1941--whether one believes them to be rational or irrational--are unique to Japan in 1941.  They don't do much to predict what China (which, last time I checked, is a different country) will do in 2023.

And in their minds, and from a military point of view, the Japanese were justified - our restricting their access to oil put them on a timer in terms of how long their military could function before running out of fuel. It didn’t matter if it was the result of a direct American naval blockade or the economic measures we took - the result was the same, they would run out of fuel.  What also gets overlooked is that things like the Philippines made perfect sense - the Philippines, as long as the US controlled them, were a dagger thrust right into the main supply routes the Japanese used to supply the territories they conquered (or hoped to).   These were two very unique issues for the Japanese in regard to their ambitions, and both were due to their conquests of other nations, which they were not forced to do, similar to Nazi Germany.

The notion that China would attack us because we moved some manufacturing out of China or started buying from other countries is silly - we are not restricting their military in any way if we move manufacturing elsewhere, and we are not physically removing existing factories - we would be supporting the building of brand new factories (or expansions of existing ones) and the Chinese would still have the existing factories.  But people like GRU Horn don’t understand that - he thinks that making chips in Vietnam or India would hurt the Chinese military in the same way that cutting fuel off to Japan did, even though China would still be able to buy those chips made elsewhere (unless they start attacking innocent countries).

[atomheartbevo 89353]

21 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

I saw a report two days ago that we are sending troops to Taiwan. Why hasn’t there been any other stories about this? Was it fake news?

Because we do it all the time?  And it was probably not about troops, but about Taiwan buying more F-16s and upgrading their current F-16s, as well as us allowing them to buy a bunch of HARM missiles, as well as other missiles that would be handy against Chinese ships.

[Mullet Free 40]

15 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

The notion that China would attack us because we moved some manufacturing out of China or started buying from other countries is silly - we are not restricting their military in any way if we move manufacturing elsewhere, and we are not physically removing existing factories - we would be supporting the building of brand new factories (or expansions of existing ones) and the Chinese would still have the existing factories.  But people like GRU Horn don’t understand that - he thinks that making chips in Vietnam or India would hurt the Chinese military in the same way that cutting fuel off to Japan did, even though China would still be able to buy those chips made elsewhere (unless they start attacking innocent countries).

Nice strawman. 

Here's what we're actually doing.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/07/biden-issues-new-rules-to-cut-off-microchip-supply-to-china-00060948

The aim, the agency said, is to “restrict [China’s] ability to obtain advanced computing chips, develop and maintain supercomputers, and manufacture advanced semiconductors” used in military applications.

The actions represent an escalation of American efforts to curtail Chinese technology development. While previous U.S. policy sought to keep the Chinese generations behind American tech capabilities, security officials now seek to bring Beijing’s technological capabilities — particularly in artificial intelligence and supercomputing — closer to a standstill.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/12/us-chip-export-restrictions-could-hobble-chinas-semiconductor-goals.html

 

“Semiconductor production is a hyper globalised supply chain. Being cut off from this engine will mean that Chinese companies must ‘reinvent the wheel’ domestically. China’s semiconductor industry will need much higher capital and talent infusion to absorb this shock,” Kotasthane said.

 

And I'll add we just removed a lot of the talent.

It will take them years to adapt. We've turned the screws on them, big time. How will they counter?

 

[atomheartbevo 89353]

57 minutes ago, Mullet Free said:

Being cut off from this engine will mean that Chinese companies must ‘reinvent the wheel’ domestically. China’s semiconductor industry will need much higher capital and talent infusion to absorb this shock,”

This is not the same fucking thing as what we did in 1940 and 1941 that was literally going to stop the Imperial Japanese Navy from sailing by early/mid-1942.

Nothing we are doing is going to stop their military in its tracks.  Nothing.  The planes that fly and the ships that sail right now, will still fly and sail tomorrow and 5 years from and 10 years from now (assuming proper preventative maintenance).  We are not removing any factories from China.  Everything they make right now they will be able to make tomorrow and a year from now.  

As for future tech, China will do what they always do and steal our shit or buy it from other countries and keep on being China.

1 hour ago, Mullet Free said:

We've turned the screws on them, big time. How will they counter?

Are they going to fart in our general direction?  Are they going to stop selling stuff to the US and its allies, and put hundreds of millions of Chinese out-of-work and in the streets?

I can tell you what they don't do:  They won't risk a war that at the very least will devastate their economy and set it back decades, and put hundreds of millions of Chinese out-of-work and in the streets as their goods are blocked from their biggest customers and that will jeopardize their food and fuel supplies, and at the very worst, will destroy their navy/air force.

Stop being a snowflake and worrying so much about China - they need us more than we need them, because given how tight the profit margins are on a lot of stuff we buy from them, if we stopped buying their stuff, we could put more Chinese out of work than our entire population.  They also have a looming demographic problem that they are going to have to lean heavily on our consumption to help try and lessen the blow.

[Parliament 14108]

2 hours ago, Mullet Free said:

 

It will take them years to adapt. We've turned the screws on them, big time. How will they counter?

 

They can counter by not selling advanced weapons systems to Russia and Iran, fessing up on Covid 19, and convincing us they'll never do it again.

ETA

An closing theot Uiger concentration camps.

Edited March 3, 2023 by Parliament

[Schulz2.0 28748]

 

[Schulz2.0 28748]

.

Edited April 1, 2023 by Schulz2.0

[Serak The Preparer 3423]

4 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

.

The hell you say. Take that shit to CR!

[Mullet Free 40]

 

[Orange&White 5516]

I sincerely hope we don't allow China to dictate which world leaders we are allowed to meet with.

[Mullet Free 40]

 

Xi going with the autocrat oversized table look 

[Texzilla58 4715]

Are they going to fart in our general direction?  Are they going to stop selling stuff to the US and its allies, and put hundreds of millions of Chinese out-of-work and in the streets?
I can tell you what they don't do:  They won't risk a war that at the very least will devastate their economy and set it back decades, and put hundreds of millions of Chinese out-of-work and in the streets as their goods are blocked from their biggest customers and that will jeopardize their food and fuel supplies, and at the very worst, will destroy their navy/air force.
Stop being a snowflake and worrying so much about China - they need us more than we need them, because given how tight the profit margins are on a lot of stuff we buy from them, if we stopped buying their stuff, we could put more Chinese out of work than our entire population.  They also have a looming demographic problem that they are going to have to lean heavily on our consumption to help try and lessen the blow.

Were it a totally rational mind operating in China, and if we weren’t as intertwined with them as we are, your posit makes sense. But often things don’t happen in the jungle of geopolitics in terms of logic.
As Tuchman wrote, folly is often the predominant factor of history.

Xi has issues. He believes the 21st century belongs to the PRC. The elites of the world publicly and privately believe the autocratic technofascism of the new AI world will be closer the Chinese structure than anything. To do that he must strike hard and decisively. While he has so much influence in the American government. He owns a ton of them, that have allowed the infiltration into sensitive technologies and institutions, the purchase of massive tracts of us farmland, the rising influence in Africa, South America, and space.

Xi believes the modern Chinese society is soft and spoiled, which they are. They need that Long Hard March to steel them for ruling the world. A little adversity like economic reset would be good for them.

China hasn’t mounted a successful offensive military in like a thousand years. He has 50 million more young men than women; he can take a loss like no one else in history.

Will we actually fight for Taiwan? Will the world condemn him when basically the UN has given China defect hegemony over it? I ask some folks what they think about Taiwan and I might get “all I know is I like that Pad Thai”.

The biggest deterrent to China is a strong military presence in the Pacific. We need to take back Subic Bay and tell the Japanese to remilitarization fast and prep Godzilla. Prep the Vietnamese economically and militarily. And our government needs to do what it can to fund repatriating American manufacturing.

I’m not saying Xi is going to invade, but he says he is. History says he’ll likely choose the stupid path.

[gmr548 16460]

Vietnam, Malaysia, Mexico, or Mississippi.

The first three take great offense at being grouped with Mississippi

[Nivek 16805]

3 hours ago, Mullet Free said:

 

Xi going with the autocrat oversized table look 

Macron should just slide his chair over.  

[Mullet Free 40]

2 hours ago, Texzilla58 said:

The elites of the world publicly and privately believe the autocratic technofascism of the new AI world will be closer the Chinese structure than anything.

Correct.

2 hours ago, Texzilla58 said:

Will we actually fight for Taiwan?

The same people that believe we would and should fight tooth and nail for Taiwan because of the importance of the chips, think Xi would be dumb to invade Taiwan in pursuit of those same chips and more. Seems to be a disconnect there.
 

 

[Handcruser 2805]

The same people that believe we would and should fight tooth and nail for Taiwan because of the importance of the chips, think Xi would be dumb to invade Taiwan in pursuit of those same chips and more. Seems to be a disconnect there.
 
 

Not really. People do dumb things all of the time.

[atomheartbevo 89353]

6 hours ago, Texzilla58 said:

Xi has issues. He believes the 21st century belongs to the PRC. The elites of the world publicly and privately believe the autocratic technofascism of the new AI world will be closer the Chinese structure than anything. To do that he must strike hard and decisively. While he has so much influence in the American government. He owns a ton of them, that have allowed the infiltration into sensitive technologies and institutions, the purchase of massive tracts of us farmland, the rising influence in Africa, South America, and space.

Which is why it makes no sense that he would piss away the massive amount of influence, reliance, and integration he has with America.  Look at how deeply Western companies were embedded in Russia.  Look at how European countries relied on Russia for oil and gas.  And all of that was after the 2014 invasion of Crimea.

Now look at how fast all of that fell apart for Russia in the wake of February 24, 2022.  American companies and the American government are already starting to look at how to disengage from China and look elsewhere (India, Vietnam, even South America) both for cost reasons, but also national security. It's going to take years, and nobody is ready to make a full run at it yet, and nobody is in a hurry, but China has spooked a lot of people and companies, especially in the wake of Russia/Ukraine.

Striking "hard and decisively" means that overnight, the US, a big chunk of Europe, Japan, South Korea, Australia, etc, are all done with China.

6 hours ago, Texzilla58 said:

A little adversity like economic reset would be good for them.

You know what's not good?  Putting hundreds of milions of Chinese out-of-work and in the streets.  That's not a "economic reset" that's a fucking nightmare for a country with over 1.4 billion people, and only a 2 million-man army. That's the kind of shit that has ended monarchies and dictatorships throughout history.

6 hours ago, Texzilla58 said:

China hasn’t mounted a successful offensive military in like a thousand years.

And China still doesn't have the capability to do a massive airborne operation in contested skies against modern weaponry, nor do they have the capability to do a massive amphibious operation.  

And an open-water amphibious assault is the most difficult military operation in modern history.  And he would be doing it over 100 miles of contested seas, against modern missile systems, aircraft, etc. and their cruise ships troop transports show up like a huge fucking beacon to radars. This ain't fucking Normandy when a friendly coast was 24 miles away, friendly ships were a few miles away, and, and a friendly navy completely owned the waters to and from the landing beaches.

6 hours ago, Texzilla58 said:

Will we actually fight for Taiwan?

We don't have to.  Sanctions with just the US alone will harm China far more than any military defeats, but toss in Japan and South Korea and a few others and all of the sudden China's demographic problems pale in comparison. 

Putting hundreds of millions of Chinese out of work and in the streets means that 2 million man army is going to have to turn inward pretty fucking fast and keep a lid on things.

6 hours ago, Texzilla58 said:

We need to take back Subic Bay

We need to "take back Subic Bay"???  What, invade the Phillippines?

And you know that we are already working on coming back to the Philippines, right?  It was just announced last week that we are ramping up our presence there, with five new bases (or up to).

U.S. Is Planning to Build a New Military Facility in Subic via E.D.C.A. (subicbaytimes.com)

 

[atomheartbevo 89353]

 

[atomheartbevo 89353]

 

[Mullet Free 40]

On 4/7/2023 at 7:25 AM, Mullet Free said:

 

Xi going with the autocrat oversized table look 

Some interesting quotes within. 

[Schulz2.0 28748]

Want.

 

[Samson's Wig 3168]

On 4/9/2023 at 11:15 AM, Mullet Free said:

Some interesting quotes within. 

Equivocation, impotence, and appeasement? From a Frenchman?  Say it ain't so!

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

@atomheartbevo is the 'SHOW ME A LOSS Peak Summer Camp Longhorn Fan' of global affairs.

[Bevo 13489]

I spoke yesterday to a woman who spends a few months a year in Taiwan and just returned from there and she says that in general people aren't too worried about China and that American media is talking about it a lot more than Taiwanese talk about it. I don't think that means much as Ukraine didn't believe that Russia would attack despite all the evidence to the contrary. It was still interesting, though.

[Mullet Free 40]

1 hour ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

@atomheartbevo is the 'SHOW ME A LOSS Peak Summer Camp Longhorn Fan' of global affairs.

This fits even more when consider the overwhelming confidence in the “team” is coming off of an embarrassing loss the prior “season” in Afghanistan. 

[Horn of Gabriel 1590]

Interesting article from Capt. Joshua Taylor on countering China's illegal activities in the SCS through a persistent low-end presence vs. the high end FONOPs we run today.  Smart, less costly, and less escalatory.

https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2022/august/campaign-plan-south-china-sea

Quote

Currently, the U.S. Navy operates like a SWAT team in the South China Sea. From time to time, it rolls through the rough parts of the neighborhood, during which time the local troublemakers keep a low profile. As soon as it sails away, the hoodlums return to coercing neighborhood residents. The people who live there do not like this but lack confidence in the police’s ability to protect them and their livelihood should they choose to defy the will of the criminals. Needed is the “beat cop” who senses what is going on in the neighborhood day-to-day, earns the trust of the people through persistent presence and engagement, and can credibly call in backup.

 

[atomheartbevo 89353]

On 4/11/2023 at 10:40 AM, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

@atomheartbevo is the 'SHOW ME A LOSS Peak Summer Camp Longhorn Fan' of global affairs.

Show me why China would wreck their entire economy and end relations with 3 of their 5 largest trading partners.

You all bitch and moan that China is going to attack, but you can't articulate what they actually gain by wrecking their entire economy and ending trade relationships.

On 4/11/2023 at 11:48 AM, Mullet Free said:

This fits even more when consider the overwhelming confidence in the “team” is coming off of an embarrassing loss the prior “season” in Afghanistan. 

What are you fucking babbling about Crispy?

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

Look I’m just not convinced starting 2 true freshmen and a redshirt sophomore that couldn’t beat a guy with drop foot last year is a good thing for our OL.

Edited April 13, 2023 by DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

So my serious answer @atomheartbevo is I don’t think you’ll be convinced. You seem very certain on how very complex things are going to shake out.

You use Putin as an example for why Xi won’t invade Taiwan. Maybe Putin is the perfect example for why Xi will invade Taiwan.

We don’t know, but when Xi tells his military to be ready to attack Taiwan in a few years, and then builds a military to do exactly that, it might be an indication of his plans.

I do agree with you it doesn’t make sense (to me). But I’m not sure “making sense” fits neatly into much going on in the world these days.

 

[SmokeyTheBear 5562]

It makes sense to try to own the market on chips when the rest of your industry is being moved to other and cheaper areas of the world. They may see it as the only way to survive economically. IF they succeeded in conflict, they have a good hand to negotiate with. I think it's the wrong play, lots of people do, but like with Putin, they are seeing the world differently than the rest of the world and will act based on one man's personal opinion. The personal opinion who has only been told what he wants to hear for the past decade. 

Edited April 13, 2023 by SmokeyTheBear

[atomheartbevo 89353]

2 hours ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Look I’m just not convinced starting 2 true freshmen and a redshirt sophomore that couldn’t beat a guy with drop foot last year is a good thing for our OL.

China has never conducted an amphibious assault of any decent size and doesn’t even have the ships for it, and it’s over a hundred miles of open seas that would be contested, and they haven’t even conducted actual warfare of any decent size in quite a while,  so yeah, they would be starting all freshman who haven’t even scrimmaged. 

[Horn of Gabriel 1590]

Just now, atomheartbevo said:

China has never conducted an amphibious assault of any decent size and doesn’t even have the ships for it, and it’s over a hundred miles of open seas that would be contested, and they haven’t even conducted actual warfare of any decent size in quite a while,  so yeah, they would be starting all freshman who haven’t even scrimmaged. 

Probably safer to assume that they both can't and won't try either.  Let's call it the Maginot Line strategy.

[Parliament 14108]

9 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

China has never conducted an amphibious assault of any decent size and doesn’t even have the ships for it, and it’s over a hundred miles of open seas that would be contested, and they haven’t even conducted actual warfare of any decent size in quite a while,  so yeah, they would be starting all freshman who haven’t even scrimmaged. 

And the last time they fought a military conflict, they got their Burts kicked by the Vietnamese. 

[atomheartbevo 89353]

1 hour ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

You seem very certain on how very complex things are going to shake out.

1 hour ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

You use Putin as an example for why Xi won’t invade Taiwan. Maybe Putin is the perfect example for why Xi will invade Taiwan.

Yes and no. Russia relies on exports of oil, gas, food.  They can shift markets and sell to India or China, because those things are somewhat easy to sell, but that has its limits and their economy is suffering - the world’s second most powerful nation is now begging Iran, North Korea, and China for help and are constantly whining about Europe shutting them out.

If China was put under the sanctions that we put on Russia, their economy is toast.  There is no nation with our size and economic power that can replace our buying power.  If South Korea and Japan join in, that fucks them over even harder.  They already have demographics problems ahead of them as it is.

1 hour ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

We don’t know, but when Xi tells his military to be ready to attack Taiwan in a few years, and then builds a military to do exactly that, it might be an indication of his plans.

When is Xi going to build this military?  Because big ass cruise ships whose radar signature can be seen from Taiwan being repurposed as troop transports are not the solution, unless your goal is to put thousands of Chinese soldiers on the bottom of the ocean.  And either they build enough ships to carry hundreds of thousands of troops all at once (which they aren’t building)  or they have to run endless loops of transport ships 100 miles to Taiwan, and 100 miles back, with a massive escort convoy.

And those transports will take hours to reach Taiwan and hours to get back, and hours to load, all the while any troops they put on the beach are being mowed down by a nation that has prepared for that scenario for 70 years.  And every transport that is sunk means that remaining transports have to pick up the slack and that there will be fewer (lesser) troops landing in the next wave, and so on.

[atomheartbevo 89353]

14 minutes ago, Parliament said:

And the last time they fought a military conflict, they got their Burts kicked by the Vietnamese. 

Oh, they had a recent skirmish or two with the Indians, involving sticks, bricks, and metal pipes, and didn’t fare too well in that engagement

https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/14/asia/india-china-border-tensions-video-intl-hnk/index.html

[atomheartbevo 89353]

1 hour ago, SmokeyTheBear said:

It makes sense to try to own the market on chips when the rest of your industry is being moved to other and cheaper areas of the world. They may see it as the only way to survive economically. IF they succeeded in conflict, they have a good hand to negotiate with.

They have the ability to maintain and even improve upon current relationships in the markets that they worry about, and they can do so financially (investments around the world) as well as diplomatically.  Deciding to try and take over the chip industry by going to war, well Russia tried to take Ukraine's resources, and Iraq tried to take over Kuwait's resources, and those things have not/did not go to plan.

Companies (not just American but South Korean/Japanese) have been getting skittish and looking elsewhere to other countries to make chips/electronics precisely because China talks about war, and so the more China pushes it, the more it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy of the US/SK/Japan bailing on them.  And money is being invested in those other countries so that chips can be (or actually currently are) manufactured there whether it's Vietnam or India or the US or wherever.  China can still reverse course and actually win the chip war through other non-military means.

1 hour ago, SmokeyTheBear said:

I think it's the wrong play, lots of people do, but like with Putin, they are seeing the world differently than the rest of the world and will act based on one man's personal opinion. The personal opinion who has only been told what he wants to hear for the past decade. 

China is far more engaged with the rest of the world than Putin/Russia was though, and not just their export businesses, but things like the Road and Belt initiative that saw them working closely with dozens of countries around the world to build up infrastructure to benefit China in the long run.  In that aspect, Xi and whoever below him who is pushing/running this stuff probably have a far better grasp of what's happening in the world than Putin (and that's probably why Xi has resisted helping Russia in the manner that Iran has). 

Putin and his cronies see the rest of the world as something they need to loot right here and now because they can't take it with them, so it's very easy to keep them in the dark about a lot of stuff since they just don't give a shit about a lot of things.  I know Zeihan goes on about Putin wanting to wrap up all of the easy invasion access points into Russia proper to secure Mother Russia, but on the other hand it also looks exactly like what a third-world dictator would do - loot his people and his neighbors.

China is flexing, there is no doubt, but they most likely want a large military for the same reason we do (well they want to keep their population in check is probably the first priority), but they want to project power around the globe.  We don't have the world's biggest navy for shits and giggles - American businesses and financial interests rely heavily on the US military keeping things stable for them around the globe as much as possible, because we need those resources to stay cheap and plentiful.

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

I’m sure it doesn’t work this way but I picture the US government constantly updating their probability of an event taking place like that ESPN gamecast prediction thing that gives a win percentage likelihood based on what’s happening.

If that existed, I wonder what that has looked like overtime with regards to the likelihood of an armed conflict with China…?

[SmokeyTheBear 5562]

35 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

They have the ability to maintain and even improve upon current relationships in the markets that they worry about, and they can do so financially (investments around the world) as well as diplomatically.  Deciding to try and take over the chip industry by going to war, well Russia tried to take Ukraine's resources, and Iraq tried to take over Kuwait's resources, and those things have not/did not go to plan.

Companies (not just American but South Korean/Japanese) have been getting skittish and looking elsewhere to other countries to make chips/electronics precisely because China talks about war, and so the more China pushes it, the more it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy of the US/SK/Japan bailing on them.  And money is being invested in those other countries so that chips can be (or actually currently are) manufactured there whether it's Vietnam or India or the US or wherever.  China can still reverse course and actually win the chip war through other non-military means.

China is far more engaged with the rest of the world than Putin/Russia was though, and not just their export businesses, but things like the Road and Belt initiative that saw them working closely with dozens of countries around the world to build up infrastructure to benefit China in the long run.  In that aspect, Xi and whoever below him who is pushing/running this stuff probably have a far better grasp of what's happening in the world than Putin (and that's probably why Xi has resisted helping Russia in the manner that Iran has). 

Putin and his cronies see the rest of the world as something they need to loot right here and now because they can't take it with them, so it's very easy to keep them in the dark about a lot of stuff since they just don't give a shit about a lot of things.  I know Zeihan goes on about Putin wanting to wrap up all of the easy invasion access points into Russia proper to secure Mother Russia, but on the other hand it also looks exactly like what a third-world dictator would do - loot his people and his neighbors.

China is flexing, there is no doubt, but they most likely want a large military for the same reason we do (well they want to keep their population in check is probably the first priority), but they want to project power around the globe.  We don't have the world's biggest navy for shits and giggles - American businesses and financial interests rely heavily on the US military keeping things stable for them around the globe as much as possible, because we need those resources to stay cheap and plentiful.

I agree with almost everything you've said on this page, I just think you have to factor in an autocrats desperation to stay in power. It's a wildcard in a situation we all see going one way logically. The past couple years, and I think the next couple years, the world seems to be in an inflection point. So many new and extreme circumstances happening regularly. My main fear is that within this adjustment of globalization, there is a shrinking window for China to get to the next step of their main goals. The west is having a cultural and economic push away from them, their biggest ally is faltering, the west is reuniting and building in power, Japan is starting to build a military back, and all with tons of internal issues. That's a shit load of challenges. The logical play is that he rebuilds his partnerships with the west as best he can, but at this point, it wouldn't be a real partnership anymore than the partnership we have had with Russia up until the war. I'm not saying he is going to attack, but fuck, if you have learned anything in the past few years, it should be that any crazyfuckingthing is possible. 

[Schulz2.0 28748]

21 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

I’m sure it doesn’t work this way but I picture the US government constantly updating their probability of an event taking place like that ESPN gamecast prediction thing that gives a win percentage likelihood based on what’s happening.

If that existed, I wonder what that has looked like overtime with regards to the likelihood of an armed conflict with China…?

Ah yes, noted military analyst Hollywood Colt.