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Call Your Shot - 2022 College Football Playoff Teams

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closetojumping

closetojumping 62141

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42 minutes ago, oSuJeff97 said:

It's not even so much of a "Gundy trap" as it is an "Oklahoma State trap."

I'm convinced we will never, ever, ever have really nice things in my lifetime. We often get tantalizingly close to the promised land, only to suffer some kind of a gut-punch loss that derails the whole thing... see football in 2011 and 2021... basketball in 1995, 2004, 2005... baseball in the CWS every year in the 80s... and on and on and on.

Hey man, there's always wrestling, right? There have been times when the only floating device I could find to cling to was swimming and diving, so I've been there. Nonetheless, who are your actual picks?

Also, this post reminded me that I actually rooted for OSU once just for the fuck of it as a fan of college sports and not because of some sort of need that benefitted Texas. That "once" was whenever Big Country and Gottlieb were in the Final 4. That happened, right? I remember that happening somewhere in my younger years. 

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texifornia

texifornia 56479

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Bama

tOSU

Notre Dame (They'll get fuckstomped, but the committee wants them so bad and I think they bumble their way through the schedule)

NC State (homer pick, even though I know what will actually happen is "State Shit" coming into play and Devin Leary getting decapitated in a freak jetski accident right before the Clemson game and Wake Forest beating them like always with five straight tipped pass TDs or something).

Alternate for NC State: Utah - just like with ND above, I have no faith in Year One USC. I have seen DJ Uiagalelei play far too much for me to think Clemson is doing anything interesting.

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ClubWhatever

ClubWhatever 12086

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Here’s a crazy pick.  UCLA.  They have a talented QB in like his 8th year in Chip Kelly’s system.  They’re coming off an 8-4 season where they beat LSU and kicked the ever living shit out of USC.   They’re a pretty old team overall, including on the Oline.  Get Utah at home.  The rest of the schedule is manageable and they are hitting the big dogs at coaching turnover times.  

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ClubWhatever

ClubWhatever 12086

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7 minutes ago, immamac said:

I don't think anyone except an undefeated Clemson can get into the CFP - too many other teams that can drop 1 or 2 and have a way higher SOS and not have the media sucking them off constantly.

I assume you’re talking ACC here.  I agree.  They have recruited lights out.  Only thing holding them back is Ugalaluelelelelel.   I think he will be improved but they are going to play Jimbo ball with him and rely on their defense.  I don’t see them losing.  

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immamac

immamac 42513

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9 minutes ago, ClubWhatever said:

I assume you’re talking ACC here.  I agree.  They have recruited lights out.  Only thing holding them back is Ugalaluelelelelel.   I think he will be improved but they are going to play Jimbo ball with him and rely on their defense.  I don’t see them losing.  

Klubnik starts ASAP

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Doc Sam Beckett

Doc Sam Beckett 5782

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12 minutes ago, ClubWhatever said:

I assume you’re talking ACC here.  I agree.  They have recruited lights out.  Only thing holding them back is Ugalaluelelelelel.   I think he will be improved but they are going to play Jimbo ball with him and rely on their defense.  I don’t see them losing.  

 

2 minutes ago, immamac said:

Klubnik starts ASAP

Yeah, I don't agree with CTJ's Clemson assessment. DJU needs to be the guy who stepped in for Lawrence two years ago and not the guy who played last year. If he stumbles, they'll go to Klubnik with the swiftness. Defense is loaded, but a little thin at CB. The OL is the best it's been in years and Will Shipley is actually pretty damn good. 700+ yards, 5.0 ypc, and 11 scores for a freshman is pretty solid with zero threat of your QB helping out and a below average OL. 

If Clemson can get decent QB play, they'll be in the playoffs 

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Tex-19

Tex-19 2869

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2 hours ago, closetojumping said:

 

As to y'all's USC picks, I don't know, man. They went 4-8. You want to talk about soft and entitled cultures? USC's rot might be worse than UT's on that front. Rebuilding a program overnight is tough without the beasts and dawgs up front. Should be fun to see.

To be clear, I think the odds on USC are low. I just don't see another 4th team standing out either.

Also, my pick is based on their portal class pretty much completely overhauling the team. They have 20 (!!) incoming transfers and obviously some of them at the highest level. That's the only way they can see such a rapid turnaround.

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Hozz

Hozz 1012

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Alabama.  Loaded.  Returning Heisman winner and potential Heisman winner on D.  Certainly motivated and pissed off about losing to UGA for the title game where they lead in the second half.   I like them to beat the shit out of everyone they play this year (except us!), but especially the ags after Jimbo's public tantrum.  They have made the playoff 6 of the 7 years.  They are currently -255 to make the CFP and +150 to win the title.   I like both of those bets frankly but I should stay away from gambling.    

Ohio State.  Also loaded.  One tough OOC game to open the season, favorable scheduling for the most part in conference.  Plus the program seems to have a deal with Satan as in my 49 years of life they have had exactly two losing seasons.

I am lot less confident outside of those two and frankly I don't think the other 2 teams matter, I don't see anyone else having a chance.  That said...my last two would be:

Clemson.  People like to shit on them but they had a pretty good year last year.  Lost to the eventual CFP winner and two conference road games.  10-3.  Also I bet they got their hands on some new experimental drugs to make up for losing their DC to OU.

Utah.  I think they have an easy road.  USC isn't back.  Oregon isn't great.

Other teams I have seen picked:

Ags.  I always think they will be worse than they are.  HOWEVER, I think they are hugely overrated and anyone picking them to come out of the SEC West is crazy.  King sucks and he won't make it through the season anyway.  Their off season coaching hires were not good.  Reshuffling the offensive coaches a month or so before the season?  lol.   As good as their 2022 class was rated, how many wins will it translate to?  8-4 here we come.  Maybe they won't forfeit their bowl this year.

ND.  I don't like this team and never have so I would never pick them to win shit.  Too many ND fans all over the fucking place.

OU.  Lincoln Riley is the guy who would lock his best friend out of a bunker to have a few more weeks of food and water.  I believe he saw the writing on the wall and got out while the getting was good.

ACC teams that aren't Clemson.  I just don't think much of them, that said I watch very little ACC football outside of Clemson.  Big12>SEC>Big10>ACC>Pac12 is about the order in which I consume college football and even watching 5 games a week there is not much room for me to watch ACC up and comers.

Texas.  I want to believe.  In the 40 years or so I have been following the team I am pretty sure this is the best top to bottom skill position roster we have had, just in terms of average player quality.  But man 5-7 last year and the way we lost most of those games, I just don't think you can blame that all on players not being bought in.  I hope I am wrong because I think the Big 12 is ripe for the taking.

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Hermanator

Hermanator 6928

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1 hour ago, JBJ said:

1. Clemson still out-talents anyone in the ACC by a mile.

2. Ohio State is good, really good.

3. LSU wins the SEC in a down year.  I guess this is my darkhorse. Bama is the more likely candidate, but they are overrated this year. I'm going for gusto here.

4. Utah is the next safest pick.  They have an easy slate.

I've said before B12 is going to be a rugby scrum.  I don't think anyone gets out alive.

Why does anyone think Alabama is overrated this year? Last year was their "rebuilding year" with a freshman QB and that insane 2021 class they signed were all freshmen. Now all those guy have championship game experience and their QB is legit. 

They aren't going to be down. They were "down" by their standards last year and still made the title game. 

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oSuJeff97

oSuJeff97 3435

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47 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Hey man, there's always wrestling, right? There have been times when the only floating device I could find to cling to was swimming and diving, so I've been there. Nonetheless, who are your actual picks?

Also, this post reminded me that I actually rooted for OSU once just for the fuck of it as a fan of college sports and not because of some sort of need that benefitted Texas. That "once" was whenever Big Country and Gottlieb were in the Final 4. That happened, right? I remember that happening somewhere in my younger years. 

Ha well to be clear, I'm actually pretty damn happy with the state of the football program, all things considered. I was at OSU in the mid-1990s, which was probably the low point of OSU football, which is saying something.  We didn't win a *conference game* until my junior year, which was Bob Simmons' first year. He was really the start of the OSU football turnaround. He had a competitive team in his second year and then made a bowl game in his 3rd year (1997) which was OSU's first bowl game since Barry Sanders' last year.

He kind of plateaued from there, but he left a lot of talent for Les Miles, who really took the program to the next level and then obviously Gundy took over from there.

So going from where we were when I was in school to being a team that wins 10+ games on the reg and is at least in the mix for conference titles and the CFP is fucking gravy to me.

The Big Country team that made the Final Four was the 1994-95 season. That was a few years before Gottlieb. His best team was the 1999-2000 team with him, Desmond Mason, etc. They made the Elite Eight, losing to Billy Donavan's Florida team.

Then we went back to the Final Four in 2004 with John Lucas, Joey Graham, Tony Allen, etc. That team brought everyone back in 2005 (except Tony Allen) but lost in the Sweet Sixteen.

 

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Wiler77

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Hard to look at the teams this year and think there are really 4 I think will be good enough for the CFP.

Bama and Ohio State, absolutely.  I don't think another team from either conference will have 1 loss, so that means no Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, etc.

I don't think Clemson bounces back and the only reason they may stay a top 10-15 team every year is because the ACC sucks so bad.  So NC Sate is as good of a pick as any.

I would love to see Ok St go, but Gundy finds a way to lose a really stupid game every year.  I can't bring myself to pick Baylor.

I don't think ND is any good, but I think the powers that be would LOVE to put a ND team in that lost to tOSU early and ran a weak schedule.  Clemson and USC are the 2 games that could trip them up, but I don't think either are good.

Oregon?  Utah?  Meh.

So my final guess is Bama, tOSU, OkSt, and ND

A Bama/tOSU final should be an amazing game.  I'll give the edge to Bama.

I do like the sleeper pick of a Houston or someone like that.  I don't think the 3rd and 4th potential CFP teams from the big conferences wil have a stronghold on the spot over an undefeated smaller school.

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Texas Native

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8 minutes ago, Wiler77 said:

Hard to look at the teams this year and think there are really 4 I think will be good enough for the CFP.

Bama and Ohio State, absolutely.  I don't think another team from either conference will have 1 loss, so that means no Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, etc.

I don't think Clemson bounces back and the only reason they may stay a top 10-15 team every year is because the ACC sucks so bad.  So NC Sate is as good of a pick as any.

I would love to see Ok St go, but Gundy finds a way to lose a really stupid game every year.  I can't bring myself to pick Baylor.

I don't think ND is any good, but I think the powers that be would LOVE to put a ND team in that lost to tOSU early and ran a weak schedule.  Clemson and USC are the 2 games that could trip them up, but I don't think either are good.

Oregon?  Utah?  Meh.

So my final guess is Bama, tOSU, OkSt, and ND

A Bama/tOSU final should be an amazing game.  I'll give the edge to Bama.

I do like the sleeper pick of a Houston or someone like that.  I don't think the 3rd and 4th potential CFP teams from the big conferences wil have a stronghold on the spot over an undefeated smaller school.

Fuck Houston….  Andre Ware.  Crying  bitches for 20/30 ah screw it since forever.
 

strange to say but Holgerson  

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Pdawg88

Pdawg88 1110

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3 hours ago, closetojumping said:

Oddly, you are the only chalk pick so far. Four #1 seeds to make it, huh?

Welp, nevermind. Enchubben just did the same. I hope y'all are wrong.

I will be, I’ve been wrong for 43 years. Won’t stop today sir. I do have a question for you. What do you think OU’s record will be this year? And who do you have them losing to? 

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cochamps

cochamps 1875

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2 hours ago, Sgt Hulk said:

tOSU. Bama Clemson Baylor 

Have to copy the Sarge here, although I hope this abomination does not occur.

Would much rather see Okie St than the Rapists, but the Jim Knowles to tOSU move wipes out any chance that they had.  Given that they still play ou and Sanders is their QB, their chances were slim to begin with imo.

 

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closetojumping

closetojumping 62141

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2 hours ago, ClubWhatever said:

I assume you’re talking ACC here.  I agree.  They have recruited lights out.  Only thing holding them back is Ugalaluelelelelel.   I think he will be improved but they are going to play Jimbo ball with him and rely on their defense.  I don’t see them losing.  

 

2 hours ago, immamac said:

Klubnik starts ASAP

 

2 hours ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

 

Yeah, I don't agree with CTJ's Clemson assessment. DJU needs to be the guy who stepped in for Lawrence two years ago and not the guy who played last year. If he stumbles, they'll go to Klubnik with the swiftness. Defense is loaded, but a little thin at CB. The OL is the best it's been in years and Will Shipley is actually pretty damn good. 700+ yards, 5.0 ypc, and 11 scores for a freshman is pretty solid with zero threat of your QB helping out and a below average OL. 

If Clemson can get decent QB play, they'll be in the playoffs 

Klubnik is Garrett Gilbert. He's a long strider with a long wind-up and he's overhyped due to playing for a juggernaut that gets a ton of press. I was openly cheering against Texas trying to recruit him. Sarkisian watched his film and took a hard pass. I'm not a Seven Loss Steve guy, but I trust his POV on QBs. Klubnik will get plenty of run on this site because of the Westlake honks like immamac, in any event.

Clemson reminds me of the Mack Brown Texas program immediately following the 2005 title. They've recruited well on paper, but they're not scaring anyone at the skill positions. They're going to have the best DL in the country. Simpson is a beast at LB and Makuba is enviably awesome at S. Great, the D will be elite and there's enough talent to cover up weakness at CB. 

On offense, DJU sucks. He flashed as iron pyrite in the ND game in 2020, but I watched the guy plenty last year. He's as pedestrian as you can get. The OL is undoubtedly returning, but I've been there. If a bunch of JAGs or worse are coming back, is that a good thing? No, it isn't. The OL was a weakness last year, Clemson has no history of developing OLs, and they're now going to be working within the framework of a new OC's vision. Shipley was highly rated and played out of necessity last season but I never watched him and thought, yeah, man, that guy is excellent. Plain as grits. Like I said, none of the WRs scare anyone. 

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closetojumping

closetojumping 62141

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1 hour ago, Pdawg88 said:

I will be, I’ve been wrong for 43 years. Won’t stop today sir. I do have a question for you. What do you think OU’s record will be this year? And who do you have them losing to? 

I think OU will have another 11-2/10-3 season in which you guys are disappointed and most schools' fans would die for that record. Here is my logic:

1) Venables is a first time HC. I don't care if he's made for it, most guys stumble a couple of times at the least in the first year of their tenure. 

2) The skill position players on offense aren't up to OU par. Mims is solid and Gabriel has the hype, but neither are All Americans. TB disappointed last year and lacks experience now. Wease, Stoops, whoever at WR aren't going to keep DCs awake at night. 

3) The defense returns guys like Redmond and White, but how many of the OU defenders are game-changers. 

4)The schedule is great. Nebraska is a joke. Big 12 is above average in the middle and weak at the top. Seems like someone could get lucky and go undefeated, but I don't see it being OU. 

All that together feels like 10-3.

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Pdawg88

Pdawg88 1110

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21 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

I think OU will have another 11-2/10-3 season in which you guys are disappointed and most schools' fans would die for that record. Here is my logic:

1) Venables is a first time HC. I don't care if he's made for it, most guys stumble a couple of times at the least in the first year of their tenure. 

2) The skill position players on offense aren't up to OU par. Mims is solid and Gabriel has the hype, but neither are All Americans. TB disappointed last year and lacks experience now. Wease, Stoops, whoever at WR aren't going to keep DCs awake at night. 

3) The defense returns guys like Redmond and White, but how many of the OU defenders are game-changers. 

4)The schedule is great. Nebraska is a joke. Big 12 is above average in the middle and weak at the top. Seems like someone could get lucky and go undefeated, but I don't see it being OU. 

All that together feels like 10-3.

I think that’s pretty fair. I feel like we drop 2. Games we should win, but just fall short. Like a K-state and Baylor. 

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JBJ

JBJ 3648

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4 hours ago, Hermanator said:

Why does anyone think Alabama is overrated this year? Last year was their "rebuilding year" with a freshman QB and that insane 2021 class they signed were all freshmen. Now all those guy have championship game experience and their QB is legit. 

They aren't going to be down. They were "down" by their standards last year and still made the title game. 

They were 4-1 in single possession games and only played two ranked opponents.

They also weren't young.  They return 13 guys and like 60% production.  Those are average and below average numbers.

They'll be good just not Bama good.

 

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Stunns38

Stunns38 3357

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Bama- because Bama and this may be one of their best teams in the Saban era.
tOSU- sick QB and WRs. D will improve, Big 10 weak.
Georgia- Weak SEC East, still will out talent schedule despite losses. Best set of TEs in the nation. Should beat Oregon.
Utah- not so under the radar talented team on both sides. USC and Oregon can’t beat them if healthy.

The Big 12 will cannibalize itself. Same with the ACC as Clemson and NC State will drop 1-2 games.

Notre Dame will have 2 losses at least.

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Blotto

Blotto 23424

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13 hours ago, closetojumping said:

-People who didn't laugh at the NCSU pick will absolutely laugh at the Okie State pick. Most folks on the radio are picking OU and Baylor in the Big 12 title game. Right. Okie State returns studs on the defensive front and Mason is a quality DC. Offensively, they get back Sanders and most of their OL. They always have quality WRs and TBs. Their schedule is fine, getting Texas, WVU and ISU at home, along with a mediocre non-con all at home. Whoever wins the Big 12 has a great shot of being 12-1 in doing so. That puts them in the conversation and I don't see a better alternative. 

I'm giving consideration to taking the over on the poke's season win prop (8.5@+100). Their non conference seems weak, leaving them to find 6 wins in conference. Seems doable. Hell, they came into the 2016 season ranked and blew an early game to Cent Mich, and still managed to put together 10 wins.  

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HornsofBevo

HornsofBevo 122

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Alabama (13-0)- This just seems to be one of those years no one will be close to them

Ohio State(13-0)- They will take a step back but no one on their schedule is good enough to give them issues

USC(12-1)- Lincoln Riley will dominate the PAC. I think Utah, to their credit, has racked up wins against weak PAC 12 competition. That's about to change.

Texas(12-1)- They have completely overhauled their roster and appear to have improved in almost every key position. The defense will be improved and a lot of those Casey Thompson fans are going to realize how much more production Sark can get out of the QB position when they see Ewers play. OU sux got worse, Okie st got worse, Baylor got worse. Georgia may end up being a better team but Texas final record along with a conference championship will get them in.

 

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