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Sam Khan Jr.: Quinn Ewers’ NFL Draft case still has flaws, but Texas QB made the right call to go pro

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When Quinn Ewers explained last summer why he came back to Texas instead of entering the 2024 NFL Draft, he pointed to the additional experience he believed he needed to increase his chances at pro success.

The Longhorns quarterback said he found that 25 college starts was the line of demarcation: Some quarterbacks with less college playing experience still thrive in the NFL, but for those with more, “You really see a jump in how their career went.” Of the top 32 NFL quarterbacks in passing yards in 2024, all but seven hit that 25-start threshold. Ewers was at 22 college starts after the 2023 season. “I don’t want to be a guy that just comes and goes,” Ewers said at SEC media day in July. “I want to be somebody who’s remembered.”

On Wednesday, Ewers announced that he’s declaring for the 2025 NFL Draft, officially closing the book on his Texas career. He’ll be remembered fondly on the Forty Acres for lifting the Longhorns back to national prominence via consecutive College Football Playoff semifinal appearances. But he was often scrutinized by fans and casual observers for what he wasn’t: the nearly flawless quarterback he was projected to become as the No. 1 recruit in America coming out of high school. Ewers was very good but didn’t become an All-American or Heisman Trophy finalist, and the presence of a backup quarterback with a famous last name (Arch Manning) at Texas for the past two years added another layer of intrigue.

If it comes as a surprise that Ewers is going pro rather than returning to school and entering the transfer portal, it shouldn’t. Yes, there were rumors of millions waiting for Ewers from another school, including a report from On3 that one school was willing to pay him $6 million to enter the portal and transfer for one more year of college football. But Ewers wants to be in the NFL, and delaying that pursuit any further doesn’t make much sense for him.

Ewers started 36 games at Texas, going 27-9. Developmentally, he has shown all of what he is as a college quarterback. Even though he is no longer viewed as a first-round draft pick by NFL scouts, it seems unlikely that 12 more college starts would drastically change how scouts feel about him. His extensive body of work has displayed his strengths and weaknesses for all to see.

“He is at his ceiling,” said an NFL scout this week, granted anonymity because he was not permitted by his team to publicly comment on prospects. That’s not to say it would be impossible for Ewers to change that evaluation with one more year. LSU’s Joe Burrow and Jayden Daniels, Oregon’s Bo Nix and Miami’s Cam Ward all did wonders for themselves in the eyes of NFL teams during their final year of college football.

But, as The Athletic’s NFL Draft expert Dane Brugler put it, those are best-case scenarios. Ewers would risk his draft stock falling further with another year in college, and with Texas excited to usher in its Manning era in 2025, that year likely would be spent at a new school with unfamiliar surroundings. On top of that, Ewers has an injury history that isn’t worth pushing, having missed games in each of his three years as a starter with upper-body ailments: a clavicle injury in 2022, an AC joint sprain in 2023 and a strained oblique this season.

Ewers was already itching to go pro last offseason before deciding to return. The 2023 season was his best year statistically, including career highs in completion percentage (69 percent), yards per attempt (8.8), touchdown-to-interception ratio (3.7) and passer rating (158.6). All those numbers dipped in 2024. Some of the backslide could be attributed to his completely new supporting cast, with receivers Xavier Worthy, Adonai Mitchell, Jordan Whittington, tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders and running back Jonathon Brooks all in the NFL.

This year’s thin quarterback draft class also gives Ewers a fresh chance to use his physical tools and in-person interviews to woo evaluators who are on the fence about him during the pre-draft process. After Ward and Shedeur Sanders, there are no slam dunk first-round options at the position.

As for the money he may be leaving on the table: Ewers has made quite a bit since he entered college. He left Southlake (Texas) Carroll High a year early and enrolled at Ohio State to cash in on hefty name, image and likeness deals that he couldn’t earn as a high school athlete in Texas because state law prohibited it. He racked up double-digit NIL deals during his time at Texas, starred in a national Dr. Pepper commercial, was on the cover of EA Sports College Football 25 and partnered with other big brands, like New Era, Panini, Lucchese, car dealerships and even a private jet company.

Even if the $6 million offer truly existed, a second NFL contract could dwarf that if Ewers were to work his way into a starting role and succeed early in his career. Even if he winds up at the lower end of his projection in the fourth round of the draft, he’ll likely have the chance to develop behind an established starter in a pro environment. That would be better for his growth than spending another year in college football.

As for what Ewers’ NFL future looks like, it depends on who you ask. He will be a heavily discussed prospect in the months leading up to April’s draft. Some will be intrigued by his arm strength, poise and leadership. His big-time performances in critical moments against Alabama in 2023, Michigan in 2024 or in the Playoff quarterfinals against Arizona State are all positives. “He throws an extremely pretty ball and has the look and feel of a quarterback who could survive in the NFL,” The Athletic’s Nick Baumgardner recently wrote.

Others may question why he struggled to be consistently accurate downfield. Ewers completed 34.4 percent of his pass attempts of 20 or more air yards over the last three seasons, which ranks 78th among Football Bowl Subdivision quarterbacks with at least 500 pass attempts in that period, according to TruMedia. Brugler wrote that scouts are “lukewarm” on Ewers because of his inconsistencies.

The NFL scout who spoke to The Athletic recently said Ewers’ leadership was his biggest improvement from 2023 to ’24. But he viewed Ewers as a “solid backup that can start in a pinch, not a long-term solution.”

It’s worth noting that Colt McCoy, whose distinguished career at Texas reached even higher heights — leading the Longhorns to a national championship game and twice finishing as a Heisman Trophy finalist — was a third-round pick and carved out a 13-year NFL career, mostly as a backup. Ewers wants more than that. “I just kind of wanted to give myself a better chance to have a long and successful career in the NFL,” he said last July.

After three years as a starter and two deep Playoff runs, he has accomplished what he set out to do in Austin, bringing Texas back and readying himself for the next level. Getting his NFL career started now, rather than waiting another year, only makes sense.

 

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This may give a little insight into our offensive struggles this year.  It even took Golden awhile to grasp the concepts of Sarkisian's offense.  The difference is that he worked hard to master it quickly.  I'm not so sure the rest of our WR's showed the same attention to detail.  Makes you wonder if Quinn only trusted a few guys in the offense.

 

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1 minute ago, Fondren & Main said:

This may give a little insight into our offensive struggles this year.  It even took Golden awhile to grasp the concepts of Sarkisian's offense.  The difference is that he worked hard to master it quickly.  I'm not so sure the rest of our WR's showed the same attention to detail.  Makes you wonder if Quinn only trusted a few guys in the offense.

 

Could also explain why we may not target WRs in the portal This year and just focus on guys getting a second offseason (Wingo and Moore) and a full spring (the freshmen) to learn it or continue to master it. 

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19 hours ago, ChickenSandwich said:

was terrified every time he had to play, and any extended playing time usually meant he was moved the next season.

 

I abhor the collegiate targeting rule. I especially hate the fact that kids are thrown out of the game and miss the first half of the next game in addition. But that Harrison hit on Colt was as dirty as it gets and he should've been immediately ejected there. And, based on his track record, he should've been suspended for a period of time.

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@satyanash thank you for the khan article above

fanstastic actual real journalism - no hate engine input - objective and fair

+++

@MaxHorn and i were talking last night and he mentioned the meme of running backs coming back in to vogue in the league

if that trend expands and continues teams may start building to win the old-fashioned way without requiring a mahomes to win

can you win in the league without a world-class deep game?

to be seen

jim mcmahon was a piece of glass and has a ring - of course he had ryan's defense and payton - but maybe there is a path to being the starter with the right team and "being remembered" as he says he wants to be

so good for him - he is aiming higher than being the next chase daniel

colt should have been a starter - was far better than daniel (as we saw in the night game showdown between the 2) - but made $20m less - strange leauge

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15 hours ago, markstanco said:


This is wrong, good or bad posts from forums. If one particular player being called out doesn’t see it, friends or teammates will forward it to them. And I know this from a younger brother of a great d1 player that is friends with my kiddo. They see it.

Way back in the day, this would've been when the AAS was still running a message board, I did some work on a fan site and what I did was tape all the games, then used a video capture thingy connected to my vcr and my computer to put shitty little clips up of game highlights.  There was one game that was super shitty and we lost, and I updated that I wasn't planning to make videos for that game unless I got a bunch of requests from the readers.  I only got 1 request, but it was from Ricky Williams, or at least someone who had access to his utexas email address.  Even back then, the players were looking at this stuff.

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5 hours ago, Codaxx said:

I think people forget what Sam did

43 starts:

923-1476, 11,436 yards, 94 Tds and 27 int. rushed 554 att, 1903 yds, 33 Tds, with 3 fumbles. That is a 127 TDs and 30 turnovers. That is 1 turnover per 67.7 touches vs a TD every 16 touches. Averaged 266 yards/game, which is more than Colt and Ewers. Averaged 3 TDs a game over his career. Managed to do all that and never missed a start his last 3 years, despite being Herman's short yardage sledge hammer

 

Sad that I wasn't paying much attention to Texas football during that time. Would have liked to see more of Sam in action. The greatest hits on YouTube are pretty fantastic of him as a player and Longhorn.

How did he drop to the 6th round in the draft?

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1 hour ago, Hagbard Celine said:

@satyanash thank you for the khan article above

fanstastic actual real journalism - no hate engine input - objective and fair

+++

@MaxHorn and i were talking last night and he mentioned the meme of running backs coming back in to vogue in the league

if that trend expands and continues teams may start building to win the old-fashioned way without requiring a mahomes to win

can you win in the league without a world-class deep game?

to be seen

jim mcmahon was a piece of glass and has a ring - of course he had ryan's defense and payton - but maybe there is a path to being the starter with the right team and "being remembered" as he says he wants to be

so good for him - he is aiming higher than being the next chase daniel

colt should have been a starter - was far better than daniel (as we saw in the night game showdown between the 2) - but made $20m less - strange leauge

Thanks for remembering that Colt vs Chase night game, 2008. Just fantastic on so many levels.   Walking out along San Jacinto was solid drunken high 5’s all the way to Scholz.

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6 hours ago, Codaxx said:

I think people forget what Sam did

43 starts:

923-1476, 11,436 yards, 94 Tds and 27 int. rushed 554 att, 1903 yds, 33 Tds, with 3 fumbles. That is a 127 TDs and 30 turnovers. That is 1 turnover per 67.7 touches vs a TD every 16 touches. Averaged 266 yards/game, which is more than Colt and Ewers. Averaged 3 TDs a game over his career. Managed to do all that and never missed a start his last 3 years, despite being Herman's short yardage sledge hammer

 

I will always wonder what if he would have used his COVID year and played for Sark. I think Sam would have killed it under Sark.

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50 minutes ago, nbmishoid said:

Thanks for remembering that Colt vs Chase night game, 2008. Just fantastic on so many levels.   Walking out along San Jacinto was solid drunken high 5’s all the way to Scholz.

My second favorite game of my undergrad era (2008 OU was #1), but my #1 home game, by far.  Just an inch above when we killed Taylor Potts in 2009. 

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1 hour ago, Superhero said:

Sad that I wasn't paying much attention to Texas football during that time. Would have liked to see more of Sam in action. The greatest hits on YouTube are pretty fantastic of him as a player and Longhorn.

How did he drop to the 6th round in the draft?

Not a great arm

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10 hours ago, NameAlreadyInUse said:

Way back in the day, this would've been when the AAS was still running a message board, I did some work on a fan site and what I did was tape all the games, then used a video capture thingy connected to my vcr and my computer to put shitty little clips up of game highlights.  There was one game that was super shitty and we lost, and I updated that I wasn't planning to make videos for that game unless I got a bunch of requests from the readers.  I only got 1 request, but it was from Ricky Williams, or at least someone who had access to his utexas email address.  Even back then, the players were looking at this stuff.

Since you brought up Ricky and were talking about people reading forums.

I had some personal interactions with Ricky while he was at Texas and after. I don't remember the forum name anymore, but I wrote a post thanking Ricky, referring to how we met, how genuinely cool and kind I thought he was and what an amazing player. It was a bit long cat... but you get the point.

I got a pretty long DM of thanks and gratitude, not from Ricky, but from his Mom. 

So, they do read stuff, so do their parents, the talking heads and the people who produce content I known is read by Surly.

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