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UTSA VS Texas 9/17/22

Wulaw Horn

By Wulaw Horn
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Johnny Depp
Johnny Depp

The season: Ewers has 2 TD's, 1 int.,359 yards,69.4% on 36 attempts, 1 over 40, 1 sack Card has 0 TD's, 0 int, 182 yards, 66.7% on 27 attempts, 1 over 40, 5 sacks 1/2 game injured One p

Elmer_Fudd
Elmer_Fudd
Johnny Depp
Johnny Depp

You have to be in it to win it. Quinn attempted suicide on the chuck and duck. He should have taken the sack.

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squib

squib 1127

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1 hour ago, WinningIsHard said:

Growing up my family use to go to the Gattis in Kerrville and we loved it, they would play looney tunes on the big screen. I was sad to learn it closed down. 

Ha. That is the one we used to go to--out in front of the mall--when we would go to Kerrville to buy groceries.  My dad would get so pissed that me and siblings all wanted our own personal little pizza instead of just buying the more economical large. We would stare at that big screen and dream of what life would have been like if only we could have been raised in the big city of Kerrville. 

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Irieguy

Irieguy 1059

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1 hour ago, Tex-19 said:

Random thought experiment - what do you think the line on this game would have been with a fully healthy Card and with a healthy Ewers? 

Line opened at -14 and is currently -12.5. I'm gonna say it would've been around -18 with healthy Card and -25 with Ewers. 

No single player in the history of football is worth 11 points. 

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kevwun

kevwun 15938

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13 minutes ago, conVINCEd said:

Is it worse than standing in a line to buy tickets the going and standing in an entirely different line to buy the beer?

Yes, they sell beer by the ounce.  You have to prepay for beer when you get there and they give you a card.  Then you go to a tap wall and swipe your card.  The tap you choose will spit out a few ounces of beer.  They cap you at a certain number of ounces, however they will let you prepay for more beer than you can actually dispense.  They mention none of this when you are prepaying in the beginning.  Also, if some jackass doesn't close the tap they got beer out of when it shut itself off, when you swipe your card, it will start shooting out beer again which will all count against your total even though none of it ended up in your glass.  It's like they tried to come up with the shittiest system possible.

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NoName

NoName 16423

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1 hour ago, Irieguy said:

No single player in the history of football is worth 11 points. 

you honestly don't think that the drop from VY to Matt Nordgren in 2005 vs USC would not have been worth an 11 point swing?

Edited by NoName
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ousux

ousux 5602

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This team has some of the same players on last year's roster, feels totally different...and it's not just the addition of Ewers, and that won't matter for the next two weeks anyway.

Instead of Bijan/Rojo heroics, we have at least 3 other RB's that can get the job done if called on, and rojo may be in the ro-cat a lot against UTSA.

For what seems like the first time in forever we have a true tight end. Not a converted undersize linebacker that plays above and beyond Sanders is 5* that looks like a 5* on the field. Quite refreshing.

Another quite refreshing development is how well our young O-lineman held up against Bama with very few breakdowns, that was awesome to see.

Worthy and Whittington are doing a decent job of covering for the loss of Neyor, and Casey Cain has been a nice surprise. Still no sign of Alexis and Omeire, but not sure they're needed.

I keep feeling like this is too much sunshine after only 2 games and missing our QB for at least the next 2,but one of those games was against a team led by the goat. The future looks bright from where I'm standing.

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CurlyDumps

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1 hour ago, Tex-19 said:

Random thought experiment - what do you think the line on this game would have been with a fully healthy Card and with a healthy Ewers? 

Line opened at -14 and is currently -12.5. I'm gonna say it would've been around -18 with healthy Card and -25 with Ewers. 

I'm curious about this too. I read an article about this once. Think it was this one from 2018. The largest line movement was Aaron Rodgers to Deshone Kizer (obligatory "that guy" comment) which moved the line 10 points.

-18 seems about right to me. I don't think the line would move that much from Card to Ewers, all things considered. Maybe 20 or 21.

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ztejas

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1 minute ago, CurlyDumps said:

I'm curious about this too. I read an article about this once. Think it was this one from 2018. The largest line movement was Aaron Rodgers to Deshone Kizer (obligatory "that guy" comment) which moved the line 10 points.

-18 seems about right to me. I don't think the line would move that much from Card to Ewers, all things considered. Maybe 20 or 21.

That's the NFL. Completely different. An 8 point spread in the NFL is a huge favorite/underdog. If Rodgers can move a line by 10 points then some college players can absolutely move it by 14, 15. 

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ousux

ousux 5602

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The country just wants to see if Texas is more consistent with their play instead of up and down! 

In other news:
Heard the battle for I-35 is sold out. 
 
I would normally be surprised with Texas at 1-1, but that was no normal game last week, and SA isn't far to drive. (Not to mention Austin is full of ex roadrunners)
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ztejas

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Also - that blurb about Rodgers isn't the most noteworthy example in there. 

  • San Francisco: Jimmy Garoppolo to CJ Beathard – down 6.5 points
  • Even Josh McCown of the Jets as a starter last year was a seven or eight point upgrade in the betting line over backups Bryce Petty and Christian Hackenberg.
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CurlyDumps

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5 minutes ago, ztejas said:

That's the NFL. Completely different. An 8 point spread in the NFL is a huge favorite/underdog. If Rodgers can move a line by 10 points then some college players can absolutely move it by 14, 15. 

I know. There's just a lot of other factors to consider too. Like the disparity between teams at every other position. And how much the Card to Ewers upgrade is worth.

For example, Bama was -38 over Utah State. Would the line drop 14 points if Bryce Young was ruled out? Hell no. But if that happened in our game? I could see that line getting down to under 10.

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 33159

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13 minutes ago, Irieguy said:

Cool. So show me an example. 

You're asking for an example where an elite QB with a very poor backup got injured after the opening line was published when nobody had any inkling he was hurt prior to that. I don't think the lack of examples is as dispositive as you think it is.

As others have noted, college lines are larger because there is more scoring (for multiple reasons) so if NFL QBs can move the line by more than a touchdown when they have professional backups then a college QB could absolutely be worth 11 points depending on starter/backup disparity. 

That doesn't change the truth that most people overestimate a single player's effect in most cases but you got way out over your skis with that comment. 

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Irieguy

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9 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

You're asking for an example where an elite QB with a very poor backup got injured after the opening line was published when nobody had any inkling he was hurt prior to that. I don't think the lack of examples is as dispositive as you think it is.

As others have noted, college lines are larger because there is more scoring (for multiple reasons) so if NFL QBs can move the line by more than a touchdown when they have professional backups then a college QB could absolutely be worth 11 points depending on starter/backup disparity. 

That doesn't change the truth that most people overestimate a single player's effect in most cases but you got way out over your skis with that comment. 

Thank you. Yes that is what I am asking for. Or any other instance where a line moved 11 points. It should be easy to find if it’s fairly common. 👍

Edited by Irieguy
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Dewey

Dewey 3299

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2 hours ago, Rickylovesweed said:

Or maybe the injury wasn't nearly as serious as the 9.95ers were reporting? 

Card starting against UTSA and then Ewers starting against Tech will show just how worthless they are. 

Look at the Bama game and the drop off between Quinn and Card. Those people said there was a QB battle and reported that Card was ahead in camp. No fucking way that was the case. They know jack shit about Texas football and are currently acting like little bitches because Sark won't tell them who the starting QB will be.  

If anyone wants some info on Texas football, talk to me. I work for a construction company, Monday through Friday I'm on site at least 8 hours a day, when I get home, I'm tired as shit and will still have better info than those cons. Please for the love of God and Mr Gattis pizza, do not give those scammers your money.

Card will start, we will have a heavy workload for the RB room, please no on think Texas is going to unleash hell on offense tomorrow. Let's get the W and get healthy. 

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sidis

sidis 9832

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8 minutes ago, joeycovers said:

I agree as it pertains to the NFL

I think VY and Nordgren would have seriously tested that theory. 

yeah, usc line was 7.  if vy would have gotten hurt the week of the game, it would have either been taken off the board or it would have moved to 21.

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Irieguy

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4 minutes ago, sidis said:

yeah, usc line was 7.  if vy would have gotten hurt the week of the game, it would have either been taken off the board or it would have moved to 21.

Sorry for the confusion, I was looking for an actual line move not a hypothetical created by a random poster. If it’s fairly common, it should be easy to find. 

Edited by Irieguy
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Johnny Sack

Johnny Sack 8397

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1 hour ago, ztejas said:

That's the NFL. Completely different. An 8 point spread in the NFL is a huge favorite/underdog. If Rodgers can move a line by 10 points then some college players can absolutely move it by 14, 15. 

VY in 2005 would have.  Due to his badassery and due to the suckitude of Matt Nordgren.

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sidis

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2 minutes ago, Irieguy said:

Sorry for the confusion, I was looking for an actual line move not a hypothetical created by a random poster. If it’s fairly common, it should be easy to find. 

sorry for the confusion, i was responding to joeycovers' post, not yours.  if you want a serious reply to your post, simply refer to huckleberry's sufficient and accurate response on this page.

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Tex-19

Tex-19 2885

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27 minutes ago, Irieguy said:

Thank you. Yes that is what I am asking for. Or any other instance where a line moved 11 points. It should be easy to find if it’s fairly common. 👍

It's probably not common at all because it would require the QB getting a surprise injury in the middle of the week. Example: this game. The opening line already knew Ewers was out.

I think you're right in the NFL but college is a different animal. If Wright played the full game vs Bama, we would have been lucky to score 10 points all game, much less in the first quarter like Ewers did.

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Irieguy

Irieguy 1059

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1 minute ago, Tex-19 said:

It's probably not common at all because it would require the QB getting a surprise injury in the middle of the week. Example: this game. The opening line already knew Ewers was out.

I think you're right in the NFL but college is a different animal. If Wright played the full game vs Bama, we would have been lucky to score 10 points all game, much less in the first quarter like Ewers did.

But there’s been a lot of college football games played over the years. I mean thousands and thousands. And we can’t come up with one single example. So maybe it’s not a real thing that happens. 🤷🏻‍♂️

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conVINCEd

conVINCEd 21474

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1 minute ago, Tex-19 said:

It's probably not common at all because it would require the QB getting a surprise injury in the middle of the week. Example: this game. The opening line already knew Ewers was out.

I think you're right in the NFL but college is a different animal. If Wright played the full game vs Bama, we would have been lucky to score 10 points all game, much less in the first quarter like Ewers did.

To move big it would also require a longer track record for the QB.  Ewers has played 3.5 quarters of football.

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Tex-19

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2 minutes ago, Irieguy said:

But there’s been a lot of college football games played over the years. I mean thousands and thousands. And we can’t come up with one single example. So maybe it’s not a real thing that happens. 🤷🏻‍♂️

Where are your examples if you're so knowledgeable about the subject?

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sidis

sidis 9832

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Just now, Irieguy said:

But there’s been a lot of college football games played over the years. I mean thousands and thousands. And we can’t come up with one single example. So maybe it’s not a real thing that happens. 🤷🏻‍♂️

do you know of a place that warehouses such data?  where do you expect to find empirical data on changes in betting lines that would allow for said analysis based on the subset of tens of thousands of games where one can find the specific parameters you lay out...namely the changes in betting lines for a game in which a start player is suddenly revealed to have been unexpectedly injured in the week between or that the player unexpectedly will be able to play after all?

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kevwun

kevwun 15938

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It would require the qb getting hurt in practice during the week after the lines had already come out and also having a really bad backup.  QB's getting hurt during practice isn't very common since they aren't allowed to be hit.

Edited by kevwun
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