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Kenpom 2022-23

shadow_operative

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shadow_operative

shadow_operative 15932

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coach beard missing one game has already had a significant impact on our kenpom rankings:

9DC7DF68-DDAC-4DFC-B8BB-109888F975D2.thumb.jpeg.89097cc09735bd8a3e16ae5a17e377e3.jpeg

our AdjEM took a huge drop, and our predicted record went from 27-4 (15-3) to 24-8 (12-6). be prepared for monday's performance against rice to not be a one-off. beard being gone is a huge loss. so huge that even the computers have recognized it and adjusted accordingly.

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45880

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6 hours ago, shadow_operative said:

coach beard missing one game has already had a significant impact on our kenpom rankings:

our AdjEM took a huge drop, and our predicted record went from 27-4 (15-3) to 24-8 (12-6). be prepared for monday's performance against rice to not be a one-off. beard being gone is a huge loss. so huge that even the computers have recognized it and adjusted accordingly.

We all saw what we saw, it doesn't surprise me that KenPom's algorithm reflected it.  An OT win against a bad team doesn't look good.  The big question will be whether or not that was a one-time issue that can be resolved as the team absorbs the shock of Beard's suspension/dismissal, or whether they're toast.

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shadow_operative

shadow_operative 15932

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On 12/8/2022 at 1:17 AM, shadow_operative said:

 

A37B0F37-013C-48F1-B499-CCE69C6C6B80.thumb.jpeg.2d3e2075e326926e4a292609b7888991.jpeg

 

this is staggering:

C0DF6B20-2D70-4B03-960B-67592DF86761.thumb.jpeg.453f326713561f72b8dc746a160ae8d4.jpeg

 

same exact players, two completely different teams. one of the three best defenses in america under beard, into the worst defense in the league under terry. overnight. maybe, just maybe some folks's eyes will start to open as to just how important a HC to its team's success. and maybe, just maybe we'll stop acting like rodney terry and grant mccasland would be great replacements for chris beard.

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ztejas

ztejas 43411

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On 1/13/2023 at 7:50 PM, shadow_operative said:

weirdest schedule/results ever for a no.9 team in the kenpom rankings:

F2FBC9AA-A63F-41F9-8AD9-AB9D121259D9.thumb.jpeg.152941df6ea2f28a351c6c5cbcee1d94.jpeg

00F17AF7-59B4-400E-986C-DFA9A2264223.thumb.jpeg.b70dbb976a5fbd1bf8b205adb5f9b6ea.jpeg

It's because they beat #61 UNT by 30 and only lost by 5 to Houston. They also have a few other big wins against middling teams. 

If you told UH they had to beat St. Marys by 15 points they'd probably get smoked. 

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Js1

Js1 85261

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7 minutes ago, KingBobo81 said:


I’d be interested to see if/how different those stats are if you take away the KState game - the basket was as big as an ocean for them that night. 13/24 from three.

Dead last in conference

Take away that game, opponents are still 44/129 (34%), which is middle of the pack in the Big 12

KSU is the #2 3FG% team and ISU is #1.  They were a combined 22/48 (45.8%).  And TCU is #3 (4/15), so all together that is 26/63 (41%).  And we still have 3 more games against those 3 teams. 

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shadow_operative

shadow_operative 15932

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imagine it's early december- Texas is top 3-4 in kenpom, with an elite defense and a near elite offense. we've crushed arkansas; we've depantsed gonzaga; we've handled creighton; you (rightfully) believe that Texas may very well be the best team in America and the favorites to win the ncaa tourney. and then, by some mystical happenstance, you're given a glimpse into the future; the near future; 5-6 weeks into the future; and you see this:

F27E3908-53B1-4AC1-98D3-0F5C9A0AD315.thumb.jpeg.da56c4b4738ca07ddea96871b6f7a202.jpeg

Rick Barnes and Tennessee at no.1 overall with the no.1 defense. Shaka Smart and Marquette at no.8 with the country's no.1 offense. and then there's Texas, at no.10, with a wildly subpar defense by chris beard standards, and rodney terry is our head coach. 

giphy.gif?cid=2154d3d7b3r262i9ewforq7xst

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ztejas

ztejas 43411

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3 minutes ago, shadow_operative said:

imagine it's early december- Texas is top 3-4 in kenpom, with an elite defense and a near elite offense. we've crushed arkansas; we've depantsed gonzaga; we've handled creighton; you (rightfully) believe that Texas may very well be the best team in America and the favorites to win the ncaa tourney. and then, by some mystical happenstance, you're given a glimpse into the future; the near future; 5-6 weeks into the future; and you see this:

F27E3908-53B1-4AC1-98D3-0F5C9A0AD315.thumb.jpeg.da56c4b4738ca07ddea96871b6f7a202.jpeg

Rick Barnes and Tennessee at no.1 overall with the no.1 defense. Shaka Smart and Marquette at no.8 with the country's no.1 offense. and then there's Texas, at no.10, with a wildly subpar defense by chris beard standards, and rodney terry is our head coach. 

giphy.gif?cid=2154d3d7b3r262i9ewforq7xst

It's a shit sandwich for sure. But are we taking bets on who wins more tournament games?

I like 2023 Marcus Carr more than anyone on either of those squads. 

Let's just please hire an actual coach this offseason. Terry doesn't know what the fuck he's doing. 

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shadow_operative

shadow_operative 15932

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42 minutes ago, ztejas said:

It's a shit sandwich for sure. But are we taking bets on who wins more tournament games?

I like 2023 Marcus Carr more than anyone on either of those squads. 

Let's just please hire an actual coach this offseason. Terry doesn't know what the fuck he's doing. 

that's the thing- as depressed as i am that this team is no longer a league/national title favorite, i absolutely have Texas going as far as/further than marquette, and depending on matchups it could be a coin flip as to who goes further between Texas and Tennessee. if Hunter is back healthy and/or we are shooting well, the Elite 8 is 100% a realistic goal. 

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Sheep Have Wool

Sheep Have Wool 1053

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8 hours ago, shadow_operative said:

that's the thing- as depressed as i am that this team is no longer a league/national title favorite, i absolutely have Texas going as far as/further than marquette, and depending on matchups it could be a coin flip as to who goes further between Texas and Tennessee. if Hunter is back healthy and/or we are shooting well, the Elite 8 is 100% a realistic goal. 

Agree, but I've become more pessimistic as our 3-point defense has regressed. If we/our opponents play to our mean, I like our chances. If we run into a team with a hot hand or two, I have zero confidence in our ability to adjust.

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shadow_operative

shadow_operative 15932

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39DED145-DE71-49CB-B078-283C36AA962E.thumb.jpeg.0b01b2129a10d7c77f52f6c55ad314bc.jpeg

233CE414-0063-4BE2-A0AC-8836A5D18037.thumb.jpeg.becb52b19215959542e0c1178f0b4487.jpeg

6596733A-1D35-4D71-B20F-FAA52A2642B0.thumb.jpeg.8736c47c9bd28a2e3add60a4d43679fc.jpeg

 

those kenpom numbers would have been a huge disappointment had beard never gotten himself fired,  it yeh actual win/loss is still right where you'd expect it to be. give these guys credit/ they're definitely not as good as they collectively were under beard, but they're still finding ways to win games. special group we've got here.

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HookEm

HookEm 2463

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I don't put a ton of stock into comparing the current ratings with the ratings we had under Beard to start the year.  When he left the team, our average opponent was ranked #152, we hadn't played a single true road game, and we had played some of the worst teams in Div-1.

Since that time the average opponent is ranked #68 and we have played in some of the toughest road environments in the country.

I will agree that the defense doesn't look as good with just an eye test though.  Sometimes it is, but there isn't nearly the consistency.

 

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shadow_operative

shadow_operative 15932

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there is literally a 0.0% chance that this team's defensive metrics aren't vastly improved if we never lose beard. this was going to be at worst his second best defense ever (his best defense (2019 TTU) is to this day the best cbb defense of the kenpom era). this team hovering around ~30th in AdjD, being 102nd nationally in 3-point defense, and being 6th in the big xii in AdjD during league play are all stats that simply could never happen under beard, barring some tragic event that sees him lose his entire starting lineup for the season. and again, it doesn't really matter who we played early on, kenpom adjusts for that kind of thing.

bottom line: this defense is an absolute shell of what it should be, and yet this special group just keeps on winning. that's what i'm most proud of with these guys. the entire roster and culture is not only built around defending, but defending with personnel who may not match up well with bigger, more traditional rosters. to lose the architect of the roster, the leader of the program, and to still be winning like this is just so impressive.

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shadow_operative

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8 hours ago, SarkAfterDark said:

So this player led team is only good to great defensively under a specific coach. I guess they only hold each other accountable on the offensive end.

being a player led team doesn't negate the impact of chris beard. it's a phrase that means, "we have a team full of 22+ year old men who don't need to be babysat to be motivated", not, "hahaha we don't even need coaches, we've got brock!"

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Blotto

Blotto 23486

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My online sportsbook has a March Madness contest for members that's free to enter. It pays out the top 500 entries and $10K for first. Its not a classic bracket contest, but instead you assign each team a unique rank between 1-64, with 64 being your pick to win it all. Every game a team wins, its rank is added to your score. So if your highest ranked team wins it all, their contribution to your total would be 6x64=384. 

I didn't have any time to think about it because the entry deadline was fast approaching, so I just used Kenpom's rankings to determine relative seeding. The only deviation I made was to swap Houston and Texas, making Texas my "64" team. That's its, took no time/effort at all. Ended up finishing 30th and won $750 (well kind of, because I'm sure there's a rollover requirement). Thanks Mr. Pomeroy! I'll have to throw that dude a sub next fall to show my appreciation. 

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shadow_operative

shadow_operative 15932

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kenpom rankings entering the tourney:

 

uconn- 4

creighton- 12 

sdsu- 15

FAU- 23

 

you get uconn as a 4 seed, creighton as a 6 seed, sdsu as a 5 seed, and FAU as a 9 seed and not very many people have them going to the elite 8, FF, and national championship game. kenpom definitely nailed the fa t that these teams were under-seeded. well these teams and a&m. 🤣🤣🤣

 

 

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