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Big 12 Power Rankings

gmr548

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gmr548

gmr548 16702

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With the Big 12's out of conference slate largely wrapped up and Texas headed into conference play, figured it's about time to take stock of the conference. In general, my impression is that there's no elite, CFP-competitive team in this league, but I don't know that anyone is abjectly terrible either (WVU could prove me wrong there). That makes for a pretty tough schedule in a nine game round robin, and hopefully a lot of fun football.

Week 4

1.) Kansas (3-0, 1-0): Fuck it, who else has a road conference win, another road win over a team with a pulse, and is averaging 50ppg? Their defense (or lack thereof) is probably going to get them in trouble against the better offenses in the league but it's great to see them off to this start; they are 100% capable of making a bowl game. Hoping they get Game Day for their undefeated battle with Duke. 

2.) Iowa State (3-0): Winning on the road against your #1 rival is always a significant accomplishment, and there was no let down after the El Assico triumph. Seems like they throw the ball to Xavier Hutchinson every play, but he still manages to get his because he's a stud. Defense has passed every test. Hosting Baylor to kick off conference, which I think will be the most meaningful game in the Big 12 this week.

3.) Oklahoma State (3-0): Spencer Sanders is protecting the ball, which has been one of their biggest issues the past couple years. They haven't really been tested - Arizona State just lost to Eastern Michigan - but they've thoroughly controlled all three of their games. Week off then kicking off the conference slate with a trip to Waco.

4.) Oklahoma (3-0): The biggest takeaway from their game against Nebraska was how shockingly terrible Nebraska is. Like OSU, they haven't played anyone, but they've also not been seriously challenged. I think they should beat KSU this coming week simply because of how one dimensional KSU is on offense, but that will be the best defense they've faced to date, so it'll be interesting to see how their offense looks.

5.) Baylor (2-1): Loss to BYU stings a little more after seeing Oregon thoroughly handle them. Still, have to respect their experience on both lines and I don't think a 2OT road loss to BYU is a massive bad mark on their record. Can't take much from their other games given the weak opponents. A trip to ISU followed by Oklahoma State off a bye is a pretty tough way to get conference play started. We'll figure out who Baylor is over the next couple weeks.

6.) Texas (2-1): Hardest team to rank given the Ewers situation, and raking them as is, assuming Ewers would not play if they had a game today. Credit where it's due for not folding when taking UTSA's best shot - but it sounds like the first 1.5 quarters were just a mess (did not get to watch until Q4). Card just limits the offense because the can't push the ball downfield, and I'm not sure we can count on them being able to control games on the ground. It took a while to get that going against UTSA and most Big 12 defenses are better than that. Defense does appear to be improved from last year, especially against the run. Leading off conference play at Tech, the first road trip of the year. How will they handle a hostile environment?

7.) Kansas State (2-1): Was starting to think they could make some noise after the Missouri W, but the Tulane L really highlights just how one dimensional they are. Just no passing game to speak of. Still, their defense can play and Deuce is a stud, and that combo can keep you in a lot of games. Leading off conference plat at Oklahoma - perhaps got caught looking ahead. Tall order, but if OU can't make them throw to win the game, they could win.

8.) Texas Tech (2-1): Also on a backup QB, and let's just say it shows. Defensive performance actually looks pretty good against NC State from a statistical standpoint and they actually had 83 more total yards, but 4 turnovers and 2.1 ypc isn't going to win you many games. Texas coming to town will no doubt be their super bowl with it potentially being the last time Texas comes to Lubbock for a generation. 

9.) TCU (2-0): Off this past week, they just haven't played anyone. It took them a while to get going in week 1 against a very bad Colorado team. Local rival SMU coming up, if they can get past them, that sets up a potential undefeated matchup with OU to open conference play.

10.) West Virginia (1-2, 0-1): Got their first win against a FCS team. Chance to build some momentum with a rivalry win over Virginia Tech this week. The loss to Kansas doesn't look as bad as it did at the time, so the bottom of the league is probably at a higher point than it's been in a very long time.

 

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oSuJeff97

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Yeah looks pretty good to me.

Happy for KU. They’ve been fun to watch. 

Based on what I’ve seen so far:

Way better than expected: KU

Worse than expected: WVU, KSU

The rest I don’t have a good bead on yet. I’ve seen some good and bad from all of the main contenders. I could easily see OU, OSU, Texas or Baylor winning the league.  

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Hurtlocker

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3 hours ago, gmr548 said:

 

Week 4

1.) Kansas (3-0, 1-0): ...

2.) Iowa State (3-0):

giphy.gif

3 hours ago, gmr548 said:

4.) Oklahoma (3-0): The biggest takeaway from their game against Nebraska was how shockingly terrible Nebraska is.

Nebraska lost to Northwestern and Georgia Southern.   Both of whom lost this weekend to Southern Illinois and UAB respectively.   That's how shockingly terrible they are.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19597

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I have no idea what it is you are attempting to do here, but it’s patently nonsense if you have Kansas and ISU at the top of the table. 

Texas (with a healthy Ewers)

OSU

OU

Baylor 

KSU

KU

ISU

Tech

TCU

West VA. 
 

Not a terrible team in the group. 4 teams who can line up and play with anyone I suspect (texas has already proven it with Bama, and give me OSU, OU and Baylor to be competitive with pretty much most top 10 teams on most weeks). 

Edited by Wulaw Horn
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oSuJeff97

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6 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I have no idea what it is you are attempting to do here, but it’s patently nonsense if you have Kansas and ISU at the top of the table. 

Texas (with a healthy Ewers)

OSU

OU

Baylor 

KSU

KU

ISU

Tech

TCU

West VA. 
 

Not a terrible team in the group. 4 teams who can line up and play with anyone I suspect (texas has already proven it with Bama, and give me OSU, OU and Baylor to be competitive with pretty much most top 10 teams on most weeks). 

It’s not “patently nonsense” if you’re basing the rankings on what teams have accomplished on the field to this point vs. “potential.”

ISU and KU (x2) have better wins than any of the contenders at this point.

 

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Skipper

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Weird OP.  Power Rankings are not "resume to date".  The conference is going to be a crap shoot with quite a few upsets but I think Vegas would strongly disagree with those rankings.  It's probably something like this:

1.  OU

2.  Texas

3.  OSU

4. Baylor

5.  KU

6.  ISU

7.  KSU

8.  TCU

9. Tech

10.  WVU

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19597

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19 minutes ago, oSuJeff97 said:

It’s not “patently nonsense” if you’re basing the rankings on what teams have accomplished on the field to this point vs. “potential.”

ISU and KU (x2) have better wins than any of the contenders at this point.

 

It’s nonsense. Iowa couldn’t score if locked in a whorehouse for the night and ISU beat them by 3. 
KU beat UH. Cool. The same UH that lost to Tech and went OT that we just squeezed the life out of with our back up QB while winning by 21. We played the #1 team in the nation to 1 point with our backup QB playing 3/4 of the game. That’s the best the conference has so far. Those ratings are absurd. 
I have y’all #2. I think y’all are really good. I’m super hyped for that game if Ewers is healthy. If he’s not then that’s a clear advantage for y’all. 

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oSuJeff97

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14 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

It’s nonsense. Iowa couldn’t score if locked in a whorehouse for the night and ISU beat them by 3. 
KU beat UH. Cool. The same UH that lost to Tech and went OT that we just squeezed the life out of with our back up QB while winning by 21. We played the #1 team in the nation to 1 point with our backup QB playing 3/4 of the game. That’s the best the conference has so far. Those ratings are absurd. 
I have y’all #2. I think y’all are really good. I’m super hyped for that game if Ewers is healthy. If he’s not then that’s a clear advantage for y’all. 

I’m not sure about our defense yet.

It has potential because the DL is deep and talented, but the back end is VERY green and will be susceptible to big busts. How that unit develops through the year will be the key to our overall success.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19597

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9 minutes ago, oSuJeff97 said:

I’m not sure about our defense yet.

It has potential because the DL is deep and talented, but the back end is VERY green and will be susceptible to big busts. How that unit develops through the year will be the key to our overall success.

Yeah I don’t think y’all are a rolling ball of butcher knives or anything but Gundy is a good coach, y’all have a senior QB with a ton of experience and pieces on defense. If you get by Texas and OU 1-1 or better y’all will be in Arlington in December. I’d call that a coin flip event if Ewers is healthy, I’d call that 3/4 if he isn’t. 
there is a reason why OU is #1 favorite followed closely by Texas and OU, and the idea that a power rankings wouldn’t have those three teams and Baylor as the top 4 is just utter and complete silliness. 
congrats to KU. I think they win 5 or 6. That’s awesome considering where they were after firing Miles. 
ISU will go 4-5 in the big 12 this year and their coach will wonder why he didn’t jump when he had the chance. 
 

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gmr548

gmr548 16702

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I have no idea what it is you are attempting to do here, but it’s patently nonsense if you have Kansas and ISU at the top of the table. 

Texas (with a healthy Ewers)
OSU
OU
Baylor 
KSU
KU
ISU
Tech
TCU
West VA. 
 
Not a terrible team in the group. 4 teams who can line up and play with anyone I suspect (texas has already proven it with Bama, and give me OSU, OU and Baylor to be competitive with pretty much most top 10 teams on most weeks). 

Just providing a starting point as of this snapshot in time. I don’t know about you, but when leading with “Fuck it,” I’m probably not about to express a well supported, deeply held belief. Do I think Kansas is the best team in the Big 12 and going to finish first? No, I don’t. Have they created a ton of momentum and are they currently among the hottest teams in the league? Yes.

Texas may or may not be the best team in the conference with Ewers healthy; but he’s not, and he isn’t going to be in a game until a few more weeks. As is, Texas is going to have to grind out wins by doing something it hasn’t been consistently good at in running the ball. Moves them down the list for the time being, in my mind.
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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19597

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9 minutes ago, gmr548 said:


Just providing a starting point as of this snapshot in time. I don’t know about you, but when leading with “Fuck it,” I’m probably not about to express a well supported, deeply held belief. Do I think Kansas is the best team in the Big 12 and going to finish first? No, I don’t. Have they created a ton of momentum and are they currently among the hottest teams in the league? Yes.

Texas may or may not be the best team in the conference with Ewers healthy; but he’s not, and he isn’t going to be in a game until a few more weeks. As is, Texas is going to have to grind out wins by doing something it hasn’t been consistently good at in running the ball. Moves them down the list for the time being, in my mind.

As I said- I started my response with- I have no idea what you are trying to do here. Traditionally power rankings is a little bit of what have you done and mostly about- what do we think of the strength of your team going forward. Under that basis- nobody has KU or ISU in the top half. If you were saying it’s just a “resume to date” ranking then ok- but the results still don’t warrant Texas in 6th place. 
Did I flip you some shit for horrible rankings? Sure. But that’s probably because all summer long I told you that this team had big 12 title championship ceiling while you arguey loudly and wrongly that our ceiling was 7-5 and expected 5-7 or 6-6. 
Anyone who argued against the idea that this team had a 10 win ceiling (and I made pains to say I was  always counting post season games in that statement) is just conclusively wrong right now regardless of what happens the rest of the season. 
If Quinn isn’t healthy this is probably a 7-5 team that could go 8-4 or 6-6 with some bad luck and other injuries. But if Quinn comes back and isn’t limited there should be zero doubt this teams ceiling is very fucking high. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19597

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Literally, I was mocked by so many people for saying that this team had serious upside that I was run out of the fall camp thread and forced to start my “jacking off to Sark fantasy” thread.

All for the idea that I said- hey- last season we had a fucking selfish and quitting loser for a QB, we went 5-7 by going 2-6 in our only close games, got a 1.000 rated QB and a lot of other talent in the portal while losing nobody, maybe just maybe this team, you know, has the chance to actually be good. 

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Rickylovesweed

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Kansas is really improved but think some have probably gone too far with how good they are. These are their wins. 

Tennessee Tech (1-2. Barely beat A&M commerce and lost to Samford)

West Virginia (1-2 and I don't think they will make a bowl. Their coach might be fired soon)

Houston (1-2 and a play or 2 away from being 0-3) 

Any average team is 3-0 with this schedule. 

 

 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19597

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1 minute ago, Rickylovesweed said:

Kansas is really improved but think some have probably gone too far with how good they are. These are their wins. 

Tennessee Tech (1-2. Barely beat A&M commerce and lost to Samford)

West Virginia (1-2 and I don't think they will make a bowl. Their coach might be fired soon)

Houston (1-2 and a play or 2 away from being 0-3) 

Any average team is 3-0 with this schedule. 

 

 

And they are average now. And that’s awesome from where they were. Good for them. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19597

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Just now, Rickylovesweed said:

For sure, I think some are overvaluing the Houston win. I said all week that was free money because of how bad Houston is. 

 

 

 

 

I don’t know that ai’d say Houston is bad, but they aren’t good either. 
we took Kansas money line and hooked that with the over and got a 5.5-1 return so I’m with you. 

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Sawbonz

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17 minutes ago, Rickylovesweed said:

Kansas is really improved but think some have probably gone too far with how good they are. These are their wins. 

Tennessee Tech (1-2. Barely beat A&M commerce and lost to Samford)

West Virginia (1-2 and I don't think they will make a bowl. Their coach might be fired soon)

Houston (1-2 and a play or 2 away from being 0-3) 

Any average team is 3-0 with this schedule. 

 

 

No one knows how to defend the triple option. That makes them dangerous

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Rickylovesweed

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5 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I don’t know that ai’d say Houston is bad, but they aren’t good either. 
we took Kansas money line and hooked that with the over and got a 5.5-1 return so I’m with you. 

Houston is definitely bad. 

OT win over UTSA and it took a major comeback in the end. 

OT loss to Tech with their backup QB. Tech was dominated the following weekend by NC State. 

Dominated by Kansas. 

 

 

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gmr548

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A bit of a thought experiment to go with Sunday morning coffee:

Week 5

1.) Kansas (4-0, 1-0, -): Another week, another win, this time over a fellow undefeated P5. There’s not a hotter team or a team that’s riding more momentum than Kansas in this league, so they keep the top spot. I think ISU probably beats them but it will be a competitive game.

2.) Baylor (3-1, 1-0, +3): Didn’t catch the game against ISU so I don’t have much to say about it, but starting out league play with a road win over a competent opponent is always good. Coming home for the game of the week in the Big 12 against Oklahoma State.

3.) Oklahoma State (3-0, -): Did themselves a favor simply by not playing this week. A road trip to Baylor is tough, but have to feel good coming off a bye. A win puts another conference championship appearance and CFP opportunity squarely on the table.

4.) Kansas State (3-1, 1-0, +3): Honestly, the fuck was that Tulane loss? Outside of that they look like a ranked team capable of winning the league. If the passing game can work like it did against OU then they’ll be right there. The big question will be whether Martinez can be consistent. They’re going to have to build off this OU effort, and hosting a Tech team coming off an emotional high could be a great way to do that, but they have to guard against the let down themselves.

5.) Oklahoma (3-1, 0-1, -1) To some extent you just expect them to lose to KSU at this point. The defense still has issues and the offense isn’t quite so stacked with NFL talent as we’re used to. TCU is equipped to exploit the same weaknesses KSU did, so the coming road trip is no cake walk.

6.) Iowa State (3-1, 0-1, -4): As I said, I didn’t catch much of their game against Baylor. Still, teams that are in the top half of the league don’t typically find themselves down 31-14 at home, so they’ve got to drop. Kansas is definitely not the get right game they’ve been for so long, but there’s no reason ISU shouldn’t feel feel confident they can win.

7.) TCU (3-0, +2): You’ll take a road win over a rival that’s owned you recently any day. Oklahoma comes to town off a loss in the conference opener. Opportunity for TCU to announce themselves as a factor and climb out of the bottom half of these rankings.

8.) Texas Tech (3-1, 1-0, +1): Huge win for a first year head coach. They will relish pointing out scoreboard in Lubbock for a generation until Texas’s next visit. Still, that was more of a Texas loss than a Tech win, and I didn’t see anything that told me this team is going to be competing for anything beyond bowl eligibility.

9.) West Virginia (2-2, 0-1, +1): Briefly looked like they were headed for disaster against VT, but got it together for a badly needed W. VT is not good at all so I’m not reading too much into it. This team will still struggle to make a bowl. There’s a lot they can replicate from the blueprint Tech just laid out on Texas, so their trip to Austin will be interesting.

10.) Texas (2-2, 0-1, -4): Another two score second half lead, another L. I’m not sure this is the worst team in the Big 12, but they probably have the worst HC and are definitely feeling the worst about themselves this morning. It’s fair to note that the offense has a higher ceiling with Ewers (and Worthy, for that matter), so we’ll see how the injury situation looks. I expect them to get right against WVU with Ewers, things get more dicey without him. Probably took any shot at Arlington off the table with the Tech loss though, and few teams can say that after just one conference game. Just hard to envision them going through the rest of the schedule 7-1 when they couldn’t close that yesterday, regardless of who’s playing QB. And there’s serious potential for the wheels to come off again in the coming weeks.

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Skipper

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So you keep OU in the same spot after losing a conference home game.   And drop Texas to #10 after losing a road game when Tech had a 2%  post-game win expectancy.   And top it off by saying "Arlington is off the table" for Texas in the most wide open conference there has ever been.    Odds are will be a team in Arlington with 3 conference losses dude. 

As for a list in general, I think it's pretty impossible to put anything together until at least 2 more weeks of conference play.

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gmr548

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1 hour ago, Skipper said:

So you keep OU in the same spot after losing a conference home game.   And drop Texas to #10 after losing a road game when Tech had a 2%  post-game win expectancy.   And top it off by saying "Arlington is off the table" for Texas in the most wide open conference there has ever been.    Odds are will be a team in Arlington with 3 conference losses dude. 

As for a list in general, I think it's pretty impossible to put anything together until at least 2 more weeks of conference play.

Regarding OU: No, I didn't, and I slotted them at 5/10 in a league that's probably not going to have a CFP team. That is not some kind of ringing endorsement. I've been pretty consistent in saying that I don't think OU is anything special this year. 

The bolded is exactly why I put Texas in last. Texas has consistently managed to find ways to lose games with 90+ percent in game win probability. It is literally miraculous that Sark has put so many losses together in such situations. In terms of defying the odds, none of us have ever seen anything like it in our lives. Sark has been very, very good at finding ways to lose. Elite. Losing these games is literally their defining trait under Sark.

When that's an entrenched habit, with this year's first episode coming against a team that will almost certainly be bottom three in the standings, it's pretty fair to conclude this team is not about to go on a 6-2 or 7-1 run that would literally double Sark's career win total at Texas. I'm ranking the team as it stands this morning, with Ewers out and Worthy's status basically unknown. Hopefully they both come back against WVU, are fully healthy, and play well. The team is obviously better Ewers and Worthy out there. But that's not going to be enough to make this team close to perfect against better competition than they faced yesterday. Ewers will lay an egg or two as a freshman. Texas will blow more 14+ point second half leads. So, yes, Arlington is off the table. I stand by that.

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gmr548

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Week 6

1.) Oklahoma State (4-0, 1-0, +2): A strong road win in a rematch of last year's championship game makes OSU a clear front runner, and that's enough to give them the top spot. Returning home to face Tech is a bit of a trap game after this big win and with a potentially monster undefeated showdown at TCU looming.

2.) Kansas (5-0, 2-0, -1): Another week, another win. Last week I said I thought ISU would win, and if you told me KU would only score 14 I would figure ISU won comofrtably. That they found a way to win without getting much from their offense is another milestone for this year. The schedule is going to get a tougher with a showdown of undefeateds everyone very much expected on tap against TCU this week. I am a little bummed to be missing College Game Day in Lawrence because that's just really cool for this program.

3.) TCU (4-0, 1-0, +4): Last week I said they could announce themselves as a factor and they did so emphatically. The next two opponents on their schedule are currently undefeated, so we will find out a lot about this team over the next two weeks. I think they're going to end Kansas's win streak, but you saw how that went last week...

4.) Kansas State (4-1, 2-0, -): Again, I ask, the fuck was that Tulane loss!? Competently handled Tech and avoided an emotional let down after the big OU win. The upcoming road trip to rival Iowa State is huge; win that, and they are feeling really good going into their bye at 3-0 in league play, with a @TCU-OSU-Texas-@Baylor stretch after the off week. The ISU defense can play, though, and they'll be desprate for a win, so KSU better come to pay.

5.) Baylor (3-2, 1-1, -3): Showed some resiliency in getting back in the game after OSU jumped out early. That will serve them well. That said, OSU managed to put the game out of reach even after Baylor came back, making it fair to question whether Baylor can match the A game of some of the better teams in conference.

6.) Texas (3-2, 1-1, +4): Texas did several things it didn't a week ago, any of which individually probably flip the outcome of that game, in its rebound win. On the one hand, it is good to see some progress. On the other, West Virginia is likely the worst team in the conference by a fairly wide margin, and it's a little frustrating to think about how they were obviously capable of being better than they were in Lubbock. This team has shown it has the ability to play with anyone in the league at its ceiling, what it hasn't shown is consistency. The RRS is the most important of Sark's tenure to date. A win would be huge, even if OU is down, and the potential is there for a BIG win. A loss, however, would be a disaster. Can they take a step forward?

7.) Oklahoma (3-2, 0-2, -2): The only game I have watched OU for any real length is the first half of the Nebraska game. On Nebraska's first series, OU's defense looked like hot garbage. As the game went on, I thought maybe that was just a good script/energetic start from Nebraska, as they didn't get much else done. Two games into Big 12 play, OU is giving up 48 ppg and 558 ypg; it's safe to say this defense has major issues. Great time for a matchup with the most talented offense in the league! "OU has a defense now" is basically their "Texas is back" at this point. Their offense is good, but special like they were under Riley, and obviously not able to overcome gross defensive incompetence. If they don't up their game significantly, Texas has the potential to absolutely light them up. Of course, a 5-7 Texas lost at TCU by 48 in 2015 and pulled a massive upset of an OU playoff team one week later, so you can't read too much into prior games with this one. I am sure they will bring their energy, as a loss would effectively end their season. Still, it's hard to believe this defense has a lot of success against Bijan Robinson, Xavier Worthy, JT Sanders, Roschon Johnson, etc...

8.) Texas Tech (3-2, 1-1, -): Like Baylor, you have to be impressed with Tech's mental toughness to get back into a game in which they got pretty much nothing done early. This team is obviously buying what McGuire is selling right now and I expect them to be competitive in every game they play. I don't know that their offense is going to be consistently good enough to push them into the top half of the standings, but a bowl is attainable. Tough draw this week at Oklahoma State, but the following week is a well placed midseason bye.

9.) Iowa State (3-2, 0-2, -3): Being high on ISU going into conference play is my biggest miss of the year so far. The defense looks like one of the best in the conference, but only being able to score 11, at home, on a Kansas defense that has been had in every FBS game they've played is... Not great, Bob. When an opponent getting to 20 is basically game over, it's hard to lean on even a great unit to win games.

10.) West Virginia (2-3, 0-2, -1): Oi. I think we have our first Big 12 team eliminated from bowl contention. This is just not a very good football team. JT Daniels is solid and the offense has some pieces, so I am sure they'll pull a couple upsets in league play, but I don't see where four conference wins are coming,

 

 

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gmr548

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Have today off so indulging in another round while putting off some yard work. A few games into the conference schedule we can see some tiers forming, even though open questions persist. Shit gets real over the next 2-3 weeks with several matchups between teams with good reason to believe they have a shot at the CCG.

Week 7

1.) TCU (5-0, 2-0, +2): I think there's three teams you can make a legit case for the top spot for, but since it's more of a snapshot of the moment thing I am giving TCU the nod for going on the road and picking up the win over previously undefeated Kansas. Dykes has this offense rolling and the defense is at least competitive, certainly better than your typical air raid team's thanks to leftover talent from the Patterson era. TCU will enjoy home field advantage in their enormous game with Oklahoma State this week; winner is going to be feeling really good about making it to Arlington.

2.) Oklahoma State (5-0, 2-0, -1): Just as they did against Baylor, they took a multiple possession lead in the first half, let their opponent back in the game (Tech actually took the lead), and then turned it on again late. They've also been outgained in both conference games; though the fact that Tech got off over 100 plays sort of mitigates that. I'm deferring to their pedigree as an upper tier team in this league a little bit by placing them this high; the next two games against #1 TCU and #3 Texas will determine the trajectory of their season.

3.) Texas (4-2, 2-1, +3): I'm not sure there's a team riding more momentum than the one that just delivered a record-breaking ass beating to its arch rival in the Cotton Bowl. The rest of the Big 12 is certainly on notice with regard to the offense's ceiling with Quinn Ewers. Advanced stats continue to love Texas as well. The OU offense was just non-competitive without Gabriel, so questions remain about how the defense will fare against the league's better offenses, and how the team will fare on the road in general, where they've been terrible under Sark. Neither of those will be tested against Iowa State this week, but that could be a trap game coming off the OU win with a trip to Stillwater looming. For now, I defer to teams that have showed they can win on the road for the top spots, but there's certainly a case to be made that this is the best team in the Big 12 halfway through the year. A strong offensive showing against the league's best defense would add to that case. I do think the Tech loss is going to bite them in the ass in the standings.

4.) Kansas (5-1, 2-1, -2): Kansas showed they have some staying power in hanging with TCU with a backup QB for the second half. The second half of the schedule is much tougher; they may be underdogs in every game left. This feels weird to say, but this week's trip to a reeling OU is one of the two most winnable games left on the schedule. Would be great to see Kansas get to bowl eligibility and deliver OU a fourth straight loss.

5.) Kansas State (5-1, 3-0, -1): Scored twice: the first and last points of the game, and that was just enough to get by Iowa State in Ames. They didn't look spectacular, but finding ways to grind out wins is what good teams do. Taking this week off before a road trip to Ft. Worth kicks off a hell of a four game stretch: at TCU, Oklahoma State, Texas, and at Baylor. If they can get through that at 2-2 they have an excellent shot at getting to Arlington.

6.) Baylor (3-2, 1-1, -1): Off last weekend after the loss to Oklahoma State. They will likely be favored in their four: at WVU this Thursday, home against Kansas, at Tech, and at Oklahoma. Could very well quietly sneak themselves back into the polls and into the mix for the CCG by mid November.

7.) Texas Tech (3-3, 1-2, +1): Tech has followed up the win over Texas with competitive showings at KSU and at OSU. They've acquitted themselves as a team that can certainly compete in this league on a weekly basis, and have a great opportunity to regroup for a strong second half with the bye week followed by a home date with West Virginia. 

8.) Iowa State (3-3, 0-3, +2): Giving up 10 points and having no turnovers at home is a pretty difficult way to lose a game. The defense is elite and going to keep them in a lot of games, but anyone who gets to 21 is going to feel good. A road trip to visit one of the top offenses in the league awaits. If anyone is equipped to slow down Texas's offense with Quinn Ewers, it's this team, but holding Texas low enough that their own offense can score enough to win is a tall order. Fortunately, a well-placed bye week follows the Texas game.

9.) West Virginia (2-3, 0-2, +1): Moving up by default because we all know who deserves the bottom spot right now. I still don't think this is a bowl team, but if they're going to make a run at that, a Thursday night home game against Baylor, coming off a bye, is almost a must win.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10.) Oklahoma (3-3, 0-3, -3): LOL. OU sucks.

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Rickylovesweed

Rickylovesweed 15521

Posted
Posted (edited)

These are the teams TCU has beaten. 

Colorado (0-5 and fired their coach)

Tarleton State 

SMU (2-3)

Oklahoma (0-3 in Big 12 play)

Kansas (a good team but they were without their starting QB most of the game against TCU). 

Would we be 5-0 with this schedule even with Card at QB? 

 

 

 

Edited by Rickylovesweed
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DFW Horn

DFW Horn 6654

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, Rickylovesweed said:

These are the teams TCU has beaten. 

Colorado (0-5 and fired their coach)

Tarleton State 

SMU (2-3)

Oklahoma (0-3 in Big 12 play)

Kansas (a good team but they were without their starting QB most of the game against TCU). 

Would we be 5-0 with this schedule even with Card at QB? 

Probably, yeah

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Homercles

Homercles 10206

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Posted

You could say the same about my Pokes, the noncon schedule has proven to be putrid.  The win at Baylor is impressive but their offensive style fits into our defensive strength, and it took hobbling their QB to slow down a Tech team that was throwing haymakers.  But those two wins are def more impressive than TCU’s overall resume given OU (their signature win) is sheep-fucking baaaaaadd (hats off to y’all for Red River Shutout but damn I’ve never seen a sadder attempt at wildcat in my life).  
 

TCU is another air raid team and Mason the DC better implement some press coverage because CMU/Tceh showed that a QB who can make quick reads against soft zone negates our strength at the DL.  The defensive backfield is young and suddenly banged up, and continued the tradition of letting a backup QB in their first start look like Omaha Manning out there.  So Duggan must be salivating.  
 

Then again Sanders seems to finally be hitting his groove with a stable of WRs and a passable OL (both also banged up), and won’t wilt at the pressure of playing on the road.  Suspect running game as Jaylen Warren ain’t walking back through that door, may be time to give Ollie Gordon some more snaps so long as he doesn’t fumble again.  
 

I trust Gundy over whoever the coach is at TCU to make sound decisions under pressure so long as he can resist the voice of Les Miles School of Clock Management For Coaches Who Don’t Count Good.  Special Teams are suddenly a strength as seen in the punt-driven safeties, KO TD and heads-up fair catch Saturday.  Our S&C continues to be excellent as seen in the fourth last weekend.  So the intangibles are there in a close game, as shown in recent years’ road-dog performances ATS.  
 

Overall -3 TCU seems about right, essentially pick-em + home field for frog.  It’s a huge game early in the conference season.  Beating OU propelled Frog into the conversation but that’s suddenly about as impressive as banging FitLump.  I’m suddenly worried about injuries and our performance against a motivated, aggressive Air Raid team was not confidence inspiring.  However good teams find ways to win when everything isn’t going their way, and I actually consider this a tougher test than Baylor given offensive style…so it’ll tell us a lot about both teams.  

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'stache

'stache 22144

Posted
Posted
46 minutes ago, Homercles said:

You could say the same about my Pokes, the noncon schedule has proven to be putrid.  The win at Baylor is impressive but their offensive style fits into our defensive strength, and it took hobbling their QB to slow down a Tech team that was throwing haymakers.  But those two wins are def more impressive than TCU’s overall resume given OU (their signature win) is sheep-fucking baaaaaadd (hats off to y’all for Red River Shutout but damn I’ve never seen a sadder attempt at wildcat in my life).  
 

TCU is another air raid team and Mason the DC better implement some press coverage because CMU/Tceh showed that a QB who can make quick reads against soft zone negates our strength at the DL.  The defensive backfield is young and suddenly banged up, and continued the tradition of letting a backup QB in their first start look like Omaha Manning out there.  So Duggan must be salivating.  
 

Then again Sanders seems to finally be hitting his groove with a stable of WRs and a passable OL (both also banged up), and won’t wilt at the pressure of playing on the road.  Suspect running game as Jaylen Warren ain’t walking back through that door, may be time to give Ollie Gordon some more snaps so long as he doesn’t fumble again.  
 

I trust Gundy over whoever the coach is at TCU to make sound decisions under pressure so long as he can resist the voice of Les Miles School of Clock Management For Coaches Who Don’t Count Good.  Special Teams are suddenly a strength as seen in the punt-driven safeties, KO TD and heads-up fair catch Saturday.  Our S&C continues to be excellent as seen in the fourth last weekend.  So the intangibles are there in a close game, as shown in recent years’ road-dog performances ATS.  
 

Overall -3 TCU seems about right, essentially pick-em + home field for frog.  It’s a huge game early in the conference season.  Beating OU propelled Frog into the conversation but that’s suddenly about as impressive as banging FitLump.  I’m suddenly worried about injuries and our performance against a motivated, aggressive Air Raid team was not confidence inspiring.  However good teams find ways to win when everything isn’t going their way, and I actually consider this a tougher test than Baylor given offensive style…so it’ll tell us a lot about both teams.  

I think the defense is really coming together and starting to feel a little like last year. Give up some big plays early and tighten up late. Tech was running a 2011 Weeden pace offense and had over 100 plays so the overall yards aren't all that important, our yards per play was decent, but we gave up too many points overall. Had some big stops on 3rd and 4th down and as you said special teams are making a major difference, which is nice because we had some years where I think we had a grad assistant running ST and they did almost nothing special.

The offense is much better, which is big news, thanks in part to being healthy. Staying healthy and good defense late in games I think can be attributed to S&C, we have the best in the business, and we pay him well. If the run game can improve even a little bit and defense continues to improve we'll be in a damn good spot. As far as injuries I read today that all 3 of the guys we lost at Tech will be back. The center is most important, the backup had a bunch of high snaps (you have one job dude isn't that all they do in practice?) Sanders is said to have some pain but nothing to be too worried about. We should be able to take care of TCU on the road but it won't be easy. Would be nice to coast for once, hope it's a big easy win. I'll be at an event and will only be able to check my phone intermittently, would like to see us take a big lead so I don't have to worry so much about checking the score. 

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Red Five

Red Five 41739

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Rickylovesweed said:

These are the teams TCU has beaten. 

Colorado (0-5 and fired their coach)

Tarleton State 

SMU (2-3)

Oklahoma (0-3 in Big 12 play)

Kansas (a good team but they were without their starting QB most of the game against TCU). 

Would we be 5-0 with this schedule even with Card at QB? 

 

 

 

Yes.

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Homercles

Homercles 10206

Posted
Posted (edited)
59 minutes ago, Rickylovesweed said:

The only game Texas maybe loses is Kansas. Everyone else sucks. 

That’s…optimistic.  All signs point to the conference being a slugfest without a prime OU to point to as clear front runner.  RRS was incredible but that game is often an outlier and I’ve never seen OU that shitastic…and as noted Sark’s road abilities outside of an electric cotton bowl hasn’t quite been settled yet.  More power to ya if that level of optimism proves warranted.  
 

Seems no real clarity just yet on ‘how good’ most teams are in the BigXII right now…Tceh lost at NC State, Baylor at BYU, Texas to an Alabama which has issues, OSU/TCU had no ooc games of note.  It’s time to see who emerges from the scrum over the middle of the season.  Anyone with a favorable schedule and fewer injuries will have a distinct advantage…for example does Kansas even actually have any depth?

I don’t think anyone should be self-crowning they asses yet but I’ve been burned so many times and lean pessimistic, so you do you

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