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Game Week- Texas Tech

Wulaw Horn

By Wulaw Horn
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Can't believe no one posted this masterpiece yet

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Codaxx

Codaxx 6210

Posted
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7 minutes ago, ztejas said:

I know the ESPN FEI/FPI or whatever has a moving average aspect going back to the previous season - which obviously has its pros and cons. I'm assuming SP+ accounts for data from previous seasons as well.

I believe they use recruiting rankings also. There is a lot of projecting in that stuff early, that is why I say it isnt until at least week 6 that you start to clean up all the noise. 

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Hookem2147

Hookem2147 21930

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15 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

We’re also 101 in 3rd/4th conversion rate. I think both of these relate to our inability to get push on the OL. Both this year and last year Sark seems to get a lot less creative in the red zone and 3rd/4th in short resulting in a lot of inside runs that are stuffed. Hopefully Sark starts scheming some more RZ and short conversion plays to help out because I don’t see our OL being good in these situations at any point this year. 

The 3rd/4th down conversion rate is weird because we are 4/4 on 4th downs so far, and obviously 3rd down has been abysmal. Just did some quick math and on drives where Ewers is in, our 3rd down conversion rate is 50% (5 for 10).

I've noticed the lack of creativity in the red zone too. For some reason we seem to abandon a lot of our RPO game in that area and our dropback passing game seems to suffer in condensed space.

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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 49906

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Posted (edited)
33 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

1) Our offensive run success rate is god awful due to poor run blocking, and our offense as a whole is really being held back by only having Quinn for about 3 quarters.   2) Defensively, we been good against the run and vulnerable to the pass. Our CBs were exposed some against UTSA and I expect that to continue into conf play.  3) The other one that sticks out is our inability to convert red zone opportunities into points. We’re 93rd in pts/Eckel, which basically means we’re struggling to convert good drives into points. We’re also 101 in 3rd/4th conversion rate. I think both of these relate to our inability to get push on the OL. Both this year and last year Sark seems to get a lot less creative in the red zone and 3rd/4th in short resulting in a lot of inside runs that are stuffed. Hopefully Sark starts scheming some more RZ and short conversion plays to help out because I don’t see our OL being good in these situations at any point this year. 

Good stuff Burt... Thx

 

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Fondren & Main

Fondren & Main 6871

Posted
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15 minutes ago, Hookem2147 said:

The 3rd/4th down conversion rate is weird because we are 4/4 on 4th downs so far, and obviously 3rd down has been abysmal. Just did some quick math and on drives where Ewers is in, our 3rd down conversion rate is 50% (5 for 10).

I've noticed the lack of creativity in the red zone too. For some reason we seem to abandon a lot of our RPO game in that area and our dropback passing game seems to suffer in condensed space.

Well consider who the QB has been for the majority of the past 2 games and also factor in who the opponent was before UTSA.  These things are affecting our numbers a bit negatively.  The PFF grades definitely speak to our inability to run the ball well, but also consider that it is currently in the opponents' best interest to sellout on the run game and make Card beat them through the air.  I have a feeling that our numbers would be looking pretty fucking good if Quinn didn't get hurt.  The data is the data at the end of the day, but there are extenuating circumstances for that data.  We just need to survive Tech with Card at QB and I'll feel a shitload better about the game against that stupid mongoloid and his merry band of sister fuckers north of the Red River.

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Fud

Fud 9696

Posted
Posted

While noting that it's possible that Houston and NC State aren't good on offense, it's interesting that Tech has only given up one long TD drive this season (in terms of starting field position, not time of possession on the drive)

Against Houston, the 20 points they gave up in regulation came from a punt return to their 19 leading to a FG, a pick-6, an interception at their own 20 leading to a FG, and a TD resulting from a longer drive (4 plays, 67 yards)

Against NC State, the 27 points they gave up came from a muffed punt at their own 13 leading to a FG, NC State starting a drive at the NC State 44 leading to a long FG, NC State starting a drive at the Tech 43 leading to a TD, a pick-6, and NC State starting at the Tech 38 from a turnover on downs leading to a TD

I'm not sure how good the Tech defense is, but at the very least it appears to be better than Tech's defenses have been recently, and the offense is really fucking it over 

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Burt Macklin

Burt Macklin 19209

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32 minutes ago, Fondren & Main said:

Well consider who the QB has been for the majority of the past 2 games and also factor in who the opponent was before UTSA.  These things are affecting our numbers a bit negatively.  The PFF grades definitely speak to our inability to run the ball well, but also consider that it is currently in the opponents' best interest to sellout on the run game and make Card beat them through the air.  I have a feeling that our numbers would be looking pretty fucking good if Quinn didn't get hurt.  The data is the data at the end of the day, but there are extenuating circumstances for that data.  We just need to survive Tech with Card at QB and I'll feel a shitload better about the game against that stupid mongoloid and his merry band of sister fuckers north of the Red River.

people keep trying to say this, but our OL was really bad at run blocking against ULM with Quinn in, so it’s not just about the QB. We will be better with Quinn and hopefully have improved creativity but 3rd and short and RZ will always be a challenge when you have an OL that can’t move people. I do think our numbers will get better in these areas as the season progresses but it will likely continue to be a bit of a struggle 

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Codaxx

Codaxx 6210

Posted
Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

 

people keep trying to say this, but our OL was really bad at run blocking against ULM with Quinn in, so it’s not just about the QB. We will be better with Quinn and hopefully have improved creativity but 3rd and short and RZ will always be a challenge when you have an OL that can’t move people. I do think our numbers will get better in these areas as the season progresses but it will likely continue to be a bit of a struggle 

The OL has been pretty weak in run blocking this year. I was bitching about the guard play in the OL thread. Run game opened up with some 2 back sets vs UTSA, that highlights the fact that Texas just can not just run the ball straight at people. Inside zone is just DOA. The RZ will always be an issue, if you struggle in the A and B gaps. If you can not run the ball, you are going to be a bad red zone offense (baring elite QB play). It is just that simple 

 

Edited by Codaxx
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Bodacious Bevo

Bodacious Bevo 3687

Posted
Posted

Couple things on the run game and play calling in general

IMO we're better at zone blocking (especially outside) than power schemes right now. I think the interior guys benefit from helping each other on their initial blocks. Makes up for their lack of strength and they're all athletic enough to get to the second level. Zone also means fewer pulls, which they've been bad at. 

UTSA LBs played the run super aggressively. We were able to punish on a couple jet sweeps but I think we need to see more of those early in the game rather than starting by trying to establish the inside run. Sark's affinity for speed should pay off big time here.

On that note, Sark definitely held back schematically against ULM and UTSA, and not just because of the QB situation. He's saving a lot things for good opponents. Compare Bama with the other two and it's night and day. He'll show ULM/UTSA a lot of different personnel packages and formations, but is mostly running basic stuff out of them. I don't know where Tech falls in his mental hierarchy, but I expect to see more motion and creativity than last week. 

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Longhornlove

Longhornlove 5134

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, DoubleQuarterPounder said:

Has it been explained wtf is going on with Watts? Really didn’t expect him to be this bad. Who takes his spot moving forward? Kid looked lost the whole game. Missed a potential game winning sack on Young then couldn’t find the ball this last game

This is a bit of an over reaction IMHO. He seems to be very good in press man and it didn't look like they were doing much of that in the first half, he was playing off. He is big with long arms, he should have an advantage when he can get his hands on a receiver, hard to do playing off. That could be the best group of receivers we face all year. Harris is a slippery SOB and made a ton of plays. I personally underestimated his ability.

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Rickylovesweed

Rickylovesweed 15306

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Fud said:

The offense is really fucking it over 

Their special teams aren't any better. Ranked #113 in FEI special teams through 2 games and they once again struggled against NC State. They might be ranked dead last in FEI special teams when updated. 

Tech is just a bad team. There's really no other way to say it. The only reason Tech has survived through 3 games is because they've played 3 dreadful offenses that can't do anything. 

Edited by Rickylovesweed
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Starfleet Command

Starfleet Command 441

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Codaxx said:

I believe they use recruiting rankings also. There is a lot of projecting in that stuff early, that is why I say it isnt until at least week 6 that you start to clean up all the noise. 

You can tell recruiting has a fairly significant weight in their early season ratings since Texas is typically rated fairly well by SP+ early on, including this season lol.

Edit:  Also it was nice of Bill to finally make his SP+ ratings public again:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1llrN8luL0XWuP8Y-Pb1NXKU84JhXLeUPafy1RfITEDw/edit#gid=1725675963

Edited by Starfleet Command
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Lhorn

Lhorn 5079

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Posted

I’d prefer they kept this shit under wraps better.  No reason to let Tech know who to prepare for.  Keep it vague but maybe ask fans for prayers, suggest people donate blood and be organ donors, suggest that Quinn is getting his affairs in order…. Ya know, misinformation.   

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Hank_Hill

Hank_Hill 19750

Posted
Posted
Just now, Lhorn said:

I’d prefer they kept this shit under wraps better.  No reason to let Tech know who to prepare for.  Keep it vague but maybe ask fans for prayers, suggest people donate blood and be organ donors, suggest that Quinn is getting his affairs in order…. Ya know, misinformation.   

They can’t prepare for the Mullet bro. Just roll over and take the length.

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ztejas

ztejas 44114

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Lhorn said:

I’d prefer they kept this shit under wraps better.  No reason to let Tech know who to prepare for.  Keep it vague but maybe ask fans for prayers, suggest people donate blood and be organ donors, suggest that Quinn is getting his affairs in order…. Ya know, misinformation.   

Do you think Hookah Horns is Sark's account?

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Horn Dogg

Horn Dogg 4277

Posted
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5 minutes ago, ztejas said:

Do you think Hookah Horns is Sark's account?

I’m pretty sure Mack used to read the boards.  I remember in the early Mack years we would all be bitching about something and then see it fixed the next week.  Particularly, I remember after some embarrassing game everyone was calling for Simms to come out in the shotgun.  First play of the next game there it was.

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UncleBuck

UncleBuck 6455

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Lhorn said:

I’d prefer they kept this shit under wraps better.  No reason to let Tech know who to prepare for.  Keep it vague but maybe ask fans for prayers, suggest people donate blood and be organ donors, suggest that Quinn is getting his affairs in order…. Ya know, misinformation.   

"But when will he be back?"

"Doc has given him 2 weeks."

"oh, good."

"...to live."

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HtownHorn

HtownHorn 15243

Posted
Posted (edited)
39 minutes ago, Hank_Hill said:

Yea wtf use would an elite backup option for a gimpy Card be? Really need that spot for Jett Bush instead.

Holy shit. If he is well enough to play then he's going to be starting. This isn't/shouldn't be a hard concept to understand.

Edited by HtownHorn
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Hank_Hill

Hank_Hill 19750

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

Holy shit. If he is well enough to play then he's going to be starting. This isn't/shouldn't be a hard concept to understand.

Except that’s not how it always works, and he would be traveling pretty much no matter what. So it was a stupid comment from the jump.

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