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Texas opens as a 5 point favorite @ Texas Tech

TexasMan

By TexasMan
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Rickylovesweed

Rickylovesweed 15522

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, JBJ said:

I'd say Tech is a substantially better defensively and marginally worse on offense than UTSA.  I'd put Tech around a 5-point better team than UTSA, so the line makes sense in that regard.

But Vegas appears to be stubbornly Missouri on Texas right now despite comfortably covering the 3 games we've seen so far.

I don't agree. 

Tech is getting far too much credit for stopping NC State's offense who is run by Tim Beck and will likely finish in the 50s to 60s again (if not worse) in FEI offense. 

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Rickylovesweed

Rickylovesweed 15522

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, JBJ said:

I don't think Tech has a "good" defense per se.  More along the lines of not a terrible one.  50-60 sounds right. 

But UTSA looks like they should be ~80.

I don't think Tech or UTSA have good defenses. Tech's is marginally better. 

UTSA has real weapons at QB and WR which Tech doesn't have. I'm definitely taking UTSA to beat Tech on a neutral field. 

Edited by Rickylovesweed
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Hookem2147

Hookem2147 22037

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Vegas views UTSA and Tech pretty similar based on the lines they set for these two games.

Texas was 12/13 point favorites against UTSA. Home field is normally worth about 3/3.5 points in college.

So take away 3 points from the UTSA spread and give those 3 points to Tech since they are the home team and you have right around what this weeks line is.

Obviously the Ewers factor is going to impact the line too.

 

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Duane Moore

Duane Moore 5756

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51 minutes ago, JBJ said:

I'd say Tech is a substantially better defensively and marginally worse on offense than UTSA.  I'd put Tech around a 5-point better team than UTSA, so the line makes sense in that regard.

But Vegas appears to be stubbornly Missouri on Texas right now despite comfortably covering the 3 games we've seen so far.

Stubbornly Missouri is my favorite indie-country band

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Hermanator

Hermanator 7674

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Posted
3 hours ago, FloridaHorn said:

Every game this year is a trap game for Texas.

1. ULM - unknown of a freshman QB making his first start in over 2 years.

2. Bama - risk of being embarrassed at home.

3. UTSA - Traylor's superbowl and potential post Bama hangover.

4. TT - Lubbock is so scary. Tortillas will be everywhere, lose this one and the season is over.

5. WV - They suck, how will Sark ever get the team amped to play this game. Plus OU is next week, we will probably be looking ahead.

6. OU - Remember last year?

7. ISU - another potential let down after a big game scenario.

8. Ok St - Ok St starts a 12 year veteran at QB and Gundy always has them ready for us.

9. K State - Purple Wizardry and all that bullshit.

10. TCU - Revenge against Phat Pat game.

11. Kansas - You don't just march into Lawrence and expect to win. 

12. Baylor - either this is for all the marbles, or our season has been over for weeks. Either way, Aranda will have Rapelor ready...Prepare thy ANUS!

Yep, the Florida stupid checks out here

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ztejas

ztejas 44233

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33 minutes ago, Hookem2147 said:

Vegas views UTSA and Tech pretty similar based on the lines they set for these two games.

Texas was 12/13 point favorites against UTSA. Home field is normally worth about 3/3.5 points in college.

So take away 3 points from the UTSA spread and give those 3 points to Tech since they are the home team and you have right around what this weeks line is.

Obviously the Ewers factor is going to impact the line too.

 

But we beat UTSA by 21... 

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ztejas

ztejas 44233

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2 minutes ago, Hookem2147 said:

And we lost to Kansas despite being a 30.5 point favorite.

Yes. Vegas isn't always right. It can still be a useful data point on how teams are viewed and expectations for a game.

 

3 minutes ago, Rickylovesweed said:

Yup. The line was off for UTSA. 

If UTSA and Tech are similar teams than this line isn't correct. 

^

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Js1

Js1 87187

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5 minutes ago, Hookem2147 said:

And we lost to Kansas despite being a 30.5 point favorite.

Yes. Vegas isn't always right. It can still be a useful data point on how teams are viewed and expectations for a game.

Yeah. Aggy was an 18 point favorite over App State. 

It’s figuring out 18-22 year olds that makes it a crapshoot. 

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Rickylovesweed

Rickylovesweed 15522

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8 minutes ago, Hookem2147 said:

And we lost to Kansas despite being a 30.5 point favorite.

Yes. Vegas isn't always right. It can still be a useful data point on how teams are viewed and expectations for a game.

We sucked last year. The line was way off but I still wouldn't have touched that bet as 30.5 favorites. 

I'm hammering Texas much like I did last week because I think it's a safe bet. That's all you can ask for even with the unpredictability of sports. 

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closetojumping

closetojumping 65441

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I can’t believe some of the whining on here about the UTSA game. I figured there’d be handwringing about Tech, sure, but people are down on the UTSA win? Some of you guys are for real stupid. 

Tech’s QB sucks. We get a reprieve after facing two witches over the last two games, Texas gets to play a human. He’s also a turnover machine. Yes, please!

Tech doesn’t have playmakers on offense. The TBs aren’t dynamic. They don’t have a deep threat. The OL isn’t great. 

Defensively, Tech’s defense is fine, but they’re not forcing turnovers. Fend off Tyree Wilson and isolate him and you can do what you want against them with UT’s size and speed. 

It’s Lubbock, Texas has to go in ready. That said, Ewers will be starting and Texas will have some energy with that. 

If this Texas team is legitimately good, they’ll win and cover and get fired up to beat the shit out of West Virginia the following week. These are games you have to win, and relatively stress free. 

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BERT

BERT 4499

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7 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

I can’t believe some of the whining on here about the UTSA game. I figured there’d be handwringing about Tech, sure, but people are down on the UTSA win? Some of you guys are for real stupid. 

Tech’s QB sucks. We get a reprieve after facing two witches over the last two games, Texas gets to play a human. He’s also a turnover machine. Yes, please!

Tech doesn’t have playmakers on offense. The TBs aren’t dynamic. They don’t have a deep threat. The OL isn’t great. 

Defensively, Tech’s defense is fine, but they’re not forcing turnovers. Fend off Tyree Wilson and isolate him and you can do what you want against them with UT’s size and speed. 

It’s Lubbock, Texas has to go in ready. That said, Ewers will be starting and Texas will have some energy with that. 

If this Texas team is legitimately good, they’ll win and cover and get fired up to beat the shit out of West Virginia the following week. These are games you have to win, and relatively stress free. 

But you knew that already. 

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TexasMan

TexasMan 11458

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7 hours ago, CurlyDumps said:

The UTSA game could have been a lot closer. The dropped pass in the endzone. Tipped pass that turned into a pick 6. The dropped pass on 4th and 1. The Bert FG that may have been a false start? (Are kickers allowed to move before the snap?) Their QB leaving the game with a concussion or w/e.

If gimpy Card is starting again, this is a close win at best. And fuck the techtards in this thread with their fake humility reverse jinx bullshit.

 

 

The only one of these I'll give you is the dropped pass on 4th down. And even then, if they had scored a TD, it only gets dicey at best as to Texas covering the spread, not losing outright.

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Hank_Hill

Hank_Hill 20054

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, immamac said:

How is this at all news? He was fucking suited up for UTSA. You’ve seen him throw in warmups, and he’s practicing fully. Why would your starting QB not start if those things are true? 

I mean there is a lot of distance between gingerly throwing in warmups and taking hits in a game. If he’s practicing full speed that’s a different story though. Either way it’s news and I’m fully torqued.

Edited by Hank_Hill
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Fud

Fud 9724

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49 minutes ago, Rickylovesweed said:

QBR ranks

Young #11 

Frank Harris #32 

Donovan Smith #110 

 

Big XII rankings nationally 

1) Jalon Daniels (Kansas)
2) Max Duggan (TCU)
16) Spencer Sanders (OSU)
23) Dillon Gabriel (OU)
41) Hunter Dekkers
43) JT Daniels
49) Blake Shapen
52) Hudson Card
100) Adrian Martinez
110) Donovan Smith

 

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TrashMaster G

TrashMaster G 18103

Posted
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1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

I can’t believe some of the whining on here about the UTSA game. I figured there’d be handwringing about Tech, sure, but people are down on the UTSA win? Some of you guys are for real stupid. 

Welcome to surly. Can I show you around?

 

 

36 minutes ago, TexasMan said:

Wondering if this line move is because of how the money is coming in or the potential of Ewers playing 

Potato-potato

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Duane Moore

Duane Moore 5756

Posted
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35 minutes ago, immamac said:

How is this at all news? He was fucking suited up for UTSA. You’ve seen him throw in warmups, and he’s practicing fully. Why would your starting QB not start if those things are true? 

 

18 minutes ago, Hank_Hill said:

I mean there is a lot of distance between gingerly throwing in warmups and taking hits in a game. If he’s practicing full speed that’s a different story though. Either way it’s news and I’m fully torqued.

What Hank said. I saw him in a t-shirt and shorts lobbing the ball around before UTSA like he was in the parking lot at a tailgate. If there’s been a report of him running with the one’s as a full go, then mea culpa for missing it. Needless to say, I am stoked to learn about it. 

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Elmer_Fudd

Elmer_Fudd 22994

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Tech is averaging 3.1 yards per rush so far.

Statistically, they have better numbers than us on defense.  NC State really didn't have much total yards, and Murray State, whoever that is, probably helps them out numbers wise.

Is Shough still for sure out?

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Rickylovesweed

Rickylovesweed 15522

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10 minutes ago, Elmer_Fudd said:

Tech is averaging 3.1 yards per rush so far.

Statistically, they have better numbers than us on defense.  NC State really didn't have much total yards, and Murray State, whoever that is, probably helps them out numbers wise.

Is Shough still for sure out?

This hasn't been updated from this weekend but here are the FEI offenses that Tech has played. I don't think they've played a top 70 offense yet. 

*NC State (#69 so probably lower after the Tech performance)

*Houston (#82)

*Murray State (10 points against Tech, 3 points against Jacksonville, and 0 points against Ball State)

Murray State is an absolute joke offensively, Houston is bad offensively, and NC State has Tim Beck written all over them. 

 

 

 

 

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Bobby_Batronic

Bobby_Batronic 1994

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1 hour ago, ATXhorn17 said:

Curious to see how Quinn fares on the road in a hostile environment… Tech will bring the house and try to force errant “WTF” freshman decisions. 

Please, please, please vacate your secondary against UT’s receivers. I beg you to leave Worthy, Whitt, Ro or Bijan singled up against your second, third, and fourth best DB’s. Please do this. Quinn Ewers dealing into single coverage is pretty low on my list of worries for this offense. Him needing to throw deep outs to the far hash behind his back is kinda what that mulleted MF’er does. 

I’d be more worried about a competent defense playing drop 8 against him and having a talented back 7 that can quickly crash down to make their light front right. Which probably isn’t TTU. 

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Loop 1604

Loop 1604 227

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Rickylovesweed said:

Tech has really played some piss poor offenses. Here is where the offenses they've played rank in total yards per game. 

Houston (#87 and that's with playing 2 OT games).

NC State (#86).

Murray State (258 yards vs Tech, 269 yards vs Jacksonville State, 155 yards against Ball State). Yikes. 

 

But we were told Tim DeRuyter is suddenly a defensive genius. 

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