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The Lebron destination thread

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texasstrong12

texasstrong12 4668

Posted
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

Ingram is also 21 or  some shit.  They fucked up on the DeAngelo Russel pick.  They did not miss on Ingram.  He will be the real deal.

I think Ingram, Kuzma, and Hart all have the potential to be good down the line. 

But do you really think Lebron joined a roster with the mindset of "hey I'll let you young guys take your time and develop so you will be good in 3 or 4 years". Lebron is 33 and has played the most minutes in the league by a mile. He has maybe 2 to 3 years left in his prime. 

If the Lakers are playing the long game here with the roster 1) The Lakers are dumber than I thought and 2) Lebron is dumber than I thought. 

Edited by texasstrong12
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kopp0e

kopp0e 1135

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A new rumor (speculation), of how 'Melo can still fit alongside LeBron in Los Angeles:

 

Quote

https://www.forbes.com/sites/patrickmurray/2018/07/02/lebron-james-signing-for-the-lakers-wont-stop-the-golden-state-warriors/#2d6b353289c0

For Lebron James it is an interesting decision. He's surrounded by a young core of players that will improve as he ages in a city where he clearly wants to live for several years. But it's not the sort of superteam he formed the last two times he was a free agent. There's no Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh coming with him. There's no Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love either.

The dream of a big three of Lebron James, Paul George, and Kawhi Leonard died after Paul George unexpectedly re-signed with the Oklahoma City Thunder on a long-term contract. Leonard may well end up on the Lakers, but the Spurs will demand a king’s ransom, leaving the cupboard bare.

There’s a good chance Carmelo Anthony gets bought out, or waived and stretched, by the Thunder to save them from the exorbitant luxury tax bills they face. Salary cap guru Nate Duncan estimated stretching Anthony could save $100m. You’d have to think that there's a good chance Anthony would end up in Los Angeles, finally playing alongside his old friend.

Again though, this isn’t the 2012-13 Carmelo Anthony who led the league in scoring and the Knicks to the second seed in the Eastern Conference. This is the Carmelo Anthony who was a net negative in the playoffs for the Thunder. His defense, never spectacular, is as ropey as it’s ever been. He’s not moving the needle.

 

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Jhawk

Jhawk 1075

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So lebron obviously makes them a playoff team but how high in the West? He’s going to play a ton of games against the teams who have been the best in the league for the first time in his career. The lakers were 12 games out of the playoffs and 30 games out of first in the West. They were 14 games out of third and 23 out of 2nd. 

Doea lebron make them a 3 seed with their current lineup? Does he make them a 4-8 seed (since they’re all so close at the bottom of the West playoff race)?

if nothing else happens (so the lakers can go all in next year without losing assets) where does this shift leave them? I think the lakers will be about as bad as the Cavs were post trade deadline. They win games and be undeniably frustrating for lebron at many points in the season. I think the finish in the 4-8 range solely because lebron will need to play as much as he did last year to get to the 3 spot and I don’t see him doing that against the West. Then I think he has a second round exit if health isn’t an issue for anyone. 

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MNLonghornFUKM

MNLonghornFUKM 8817

Posted
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40 minutes ago, texasstrong12 said:

I think Ingram, Kuzma, and Hart all have the potential to be good down the line. 

But do you really think Lebron joined a roster with the mindset of "hey I'll let you young guys take your time and develop so you will be good in 3 or 4 years". Lebron is 33 and has played the most minutes in the league by a mile. He has maybe 2 to 3 years left in his prime. 

If the Lakers are playing the long game here with the roster 1) The Lakers are dumber than I thought and 2) Lebron is dumber than I thought. 

what if Lebron pulls a Deandre Jordan/Mavs situation and backs out at the 11th hour once he sees that LA cant complete a trade for Kawhi?

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HookEm

HookEm 2463

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The lakers were 12 games out of the playoffs and 30 games out of first in the West. They were 14 games out of third and 23 out of 2nd. 

The Lakers were a very young team last year.  Their main players were Lonzo (20), Ingram (20), Kuzma (22), Randle (23), KCP (24),  Hart (22), and Lopez (29).  Even if they had just run it back with this group, they would have improved.

The Lakers lost 13 games last year by a combined 36 points (2.7 ppg) including 5 losses in overtime.  With simply another year of experience and a healthy Lonzo I think they win half of those next year.  So let's say that is +7 wins. 

Then add in LeBron who had a "wins over replacement player" of 24 last year (leading the NBA).  Let's say that slips a little in LA with a slightly stronger supporting cast and another year of wear and tear.  So let's make that +20.  

That gets you +27 wins all the way to 62 wins.  Seems too optimistic when Cleveland only won 50 last year. But I would say they win somewhere between 50-60 which gets them to a top-3 seed in the West.

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Patrick Bateman

Patrick Bateman 3911

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26 minutes ago, HookEm said:

The Lakers were a very young team last year.  Their main players were Lonzo (20), Ingram (20), Kuzma (22), Randle (23), KCP (24),  Hart (22), and Lopez (29).  Even if they had just run it back with this group, they would have improved.

The Lakers lost 13 games last year by a combined 36 points (2.7 ppg) including 5 losses in overtime.  With simply another year of experience and a healthy Lonzo I think they win half of those next year.  So let's say that is +7 wins. 

Then add in LeBron who had a "wins over replacement player" of 24 last year (leading the NBA).  Let's say that slips a little in LA with a slightly stronger supporting cast and another year of wear and tear.  So let's make that +20.  

That gets you +27 wins all the way to 62 wins.  Seems too optimistic when Cleveland only won 50 last year. But I would say they win somewhere between 50-60 which gets them to a top-3 seed in the West.

Where did you get your WORP stat?  It's probably why your projections are so out of whack.  

 

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C-Man

C-Man 27191

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The lakers were 12 games out of the playoffs and 30 games out of first in the West. They were 14 games out of third and 23 out of 2nd. 
The Lakers were a very young team last year.  Their main players were Lonzo (20), Ingram (20), Kuzma (22), Randle (23), KCP (24),  Hart (22), and Lopez (29).  Even if they had just run it back with this group, they would have improved.
The Lakers lost 13 games last year by a combined 36 points (2.7 ppg) including 5 losses in overtime.  With simply another year of experience and a healthy Lonzo I think they win half of those next year.  So let's say that is +7 wins. 
Then add in LeBron who had a "wins over replacement player" of 24 last year (leading the NBA).  Let's say that slips a little in LA with a slightly stronger supporting cast and another year of wear and tear.  So let's make that +20.  
That gets you +27 wins all the way to 62 wins.  Seems too optimistic when Cleveland only won 50 last year. But I would say they win somewhere between 50-60 which gets them to a top-3 seed in the West.


Yeah, if they do nothing else they’re at worst a 3/4 seed in the West next year. If they can get Kawhi? That’s a whole different conversation.
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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32848

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31 minutes ago, Patrick Bateman said:

Where did you get your WORP stat?  It's probably why your projections are so out of whack.  

 

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jamesle01.html

Basketball Reference has him at a VORP of 8.9 and they say to multiply by 2.7 to get wins above replacement. I have to think that the Cavaliers win more than 26 with a replacement player instead of James last year, but that's what the stat says.

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Patrick Bateman

Patrick Bateman 3911

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21 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jamesle01.html

Basketball Reference has him at a VORP of 8.9 and they say to multiply by 2.7 to get wins above replacement. I have to think that the Cavaliers win more than 26 with a replacement player instead of James last year, but that's what the stat says.

Gotcha, gotcha, gotcha.  Gracias.  Obviously that's a silly assumption.  Lebron's great, but if you put him on Toronto last year, they don't got 82-0 so marginal utility isn't accounted for.  Nerd aside, I always assumed you added the 3 wins.... LOL!  What a rube.

Here is projected WAR next year..... I think it's a bit more fair and easier for the metrics to support.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-nba-player-projections-are-ready-for-2018-19/

Lebron is estimated at about a 11 WAR.  So assuming the kids take a step forward, I had them around .500 (39-42 wins), with Lebron adding an 11 games.  50-53 wins is what I would guess they would get to without major injury and as currently constructed.  That's probably on the high side but I also don't think they stay at currently constructed.  I think they make one more move. 

Another interesting note about Lebron is he always has a gap year, if you will, when he forms his super teams whereby it takes a year for them to really fulfill their potential.  By possibly delaying the formation of this team until next year, would he also be delaying their best team until the 2020-2021 team?  Would it matter?  Lebron would be 36 at the time.

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Grade of D as in David

Grade of D as in David 13253

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3 hours ago, texasstrong12 said:

I think Ingram, Kuzma, and Hart all have the potential to be good down the line. 

But do you really think Lebron joined a roster with the mindset of "hey I'll let you young guys take your time and develop so you will be good in 3 or 4 years". Lebron is 33 and has played the most minutes in the league by a mile. He has maybe 2 to 3 years left in his prime. 

If the Lakers are playing the long game here with the roster 1) The Lakers are dumber than I thought and 2) Lebron is dumber than I thought. 

LeBron wants to average 25 a game for the next 4 seasons, pass Kareem for all time points and retire.  

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Jhawk

Jhawk 1075

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Posted (edited)

If you go by last year scheduling, the lakers played 27 games against the top 8 seeds in the west.  The cavs played 15 against those same teams.  Lebron played a ton of games and minutes last year just to get to the 4 seed in the east.  Then he had to be "playoff lebron" for every series to get to the finals to get swept.  Lebron isn't going to play 82 games and 37mpg against the competition he has in the west.  He isn't going to be able to hide on defense like he did the second half of last year when the media was acting like lebron had found the holy grail of staying in the game for 48 minutes.

I think the lakers are an instant playoff team and have the potential to be the 3 seed.  But without help are basically the clippers in that they will win and make little to no noise when it matters.  Lebron is the most talented player of all time in my opinion, but there is no way he carries the lakers for 82 games just to get into the playoffs and then carries them deep into the playoffs.  Which is probably why he did a 3+1 deal.  He probably wanted to give the lakers the runway to not have to dump assets to get guys like Kawhi.  They have about $10mm of cap space left and $34mm until they hit the tax.  Then next year they are wide open with cap room.  A good play for them would be to go after Capela to get the Rockets to put themselves in cap hell (making them unable to further improve for the next 2 years) and then sign cousins and be patient for Kawhi in 2019. 

 

**EDIT**

Also, to throw more speculation into the ring, I heard mentioned on NBA radio this morning... With the warriors stepping 1 more year closer to extinction, would KD go to LA in 2019 or 2020 to avoid being in the bay past the championship window for the warriors?  They are going to have some big decisions to make over the next 2 years with Klay and Green and Luxury taxes.

Edited by Jhawk
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HookEm

HookEm 2463

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LeBron wants to average 25 a game for the next 4 seasons, pass Kareem for all time points and retire.  

He will stay in the NBA long enough to have a chance at playing with his son, IMHO.  That means he has 6 more years left.

Also regarding VORP, doesn't it take into account who your replacement player is?  For example, if you are on a team where your replacement player is Lou Williams, your VORP would be lower than if your replacement player is Kyle Korver.  So an awesome player on a terrible team would have a very high VORP, while a great player on a stacked team would have a lower VORP.

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Patrick Bateman

Patrick Bateman 3911

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2 minutes ago, HookEm said:

He will stay in the NBA long enough to have a chance at playing with his son, IMHO.  That means he has 6 more years left.

Also regarding VORP, doesn't it take into account who your replacement player is?  For example, if you are on a team where your replacement player is Lou Williams, your VORP would be lower than if your replacement player is Kyle Korver.  So an awesome player on a terrible team would have a very high VORP, while a great player on a stacked team would have a lower VORP.

Not B-R's..... it's just a replacement level player which is -2.0 baseline.

 

 

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texasstrong12

texasstrong12 4668

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I never realized Stephenson's defense was this bad. I always viewed him as at least an average defender based on the Pacers/Cavs series. Has there been a drop off recently or have the metrics always viewed Stephenson as a bad defender? 

 

Edited by texasstrong12
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utexas8

utexas8 1436

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I’m so confused. It’s seems like the lakers aren’t going to trade half their roster for KL since Lebron is there and apparently gave them the green light he was coming with or without KL and PG. I think I saw windy mention it was a business decision to pick LA not a basketball decision. I can’t imagine lebron going into retirement road so soon. He can’t possible be okay with the roster he has now and not even making it to the WCF.

Unless this is all a big bluff and KL is going to LA this year. Or maybe lebron is playing the long game for next year when KD and Klay are free agents. Isn’t Anthony Davis one too? But I know the warriors plan to go after him.

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texasstrong12

texasstrong12 4668

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12 minutes ago, utexas8 said:

 I can’t imagine lebron going into retirement road so soon. He can’t possible be okay with the roster he has now and not even making it to the WCF.

 

Retirement? Nah, but I'm guessing Lebron doesn't have many more years in his prime. Lebron has played an insane amount of minutes. 

 

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utexas8

utexas8 1436

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Retirement? Nah, but I'm guessing Lebron doesn't have many more years in his prime. Lebron has played an insane amount of minutes. 
 



No I’m saying I can’t imagine him going into retirement mode as in Living in LA + getting paid and not caring about winning another tittle , so soon.
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Patrick Bateman

Patrick Bateman 3911

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Apparently this is the definitive beat writers account of the Cleveland/Lebron relationship.  I've only listened to some of it (it's 3 hours long) but it's pretty good if one cares.  

https://923thefan.radio.com/articles/cavs-roundtable-discussion-jason-lloyd-dave-mcmenamin-and-joe-vardon

This article gives you the bullet points to everything.  I'll highlight a few:

https://waitingfornextyear.com/2018/07/cavs-roundtable-beat-writers-92-3-the-fan

  • Lloyd thought LeBron was leaving for most of the season due to No. 23 being so aggravated with some of the decisions that were made. The first LeBron-to-LA talk happened the same summer the Cavs won the title when Lloyd was told by someone in the organization that it could happen.

The Lebron sweepstakes weren't really a drama to the folks in the know as it turns out and this is because.....

  • All three agree that it was a family decision, but the basketball side of things made sense as well. According to McMenamin, James’ wife, Savannah, spent more time in Los Angeles throughout this past season than she ever has before.

and

  • Lloyd was told that the only way the Cavs had a shot at keeping LeBron late in the season was if the Brooklyn first-round pick, which they had the rights to, landed in the Top 3 in the lottery.

But mainly because Lebron had exhausted the resources for Cleveland and after the Kyrie trade, he wanted out.

  • The “little brother” thing annoyed the heck out of Kyrie.
  • Uncle Drew didn’t like how much power and sway LeBron had in the organization.
  • James did nothing to keep Irving in Cleveland before it was too late. He never spoke to Kyrie in the month between the meeting when No. 2 requested a trade and when he was inevitably traded.
  • Kyrie didn’t want LeBron to come back in the first place. Didn’t think the Cavs needed No. 23 to come back in order to do well.

Kyrie and Lebron didn't get along.  It comes off as if Kyrie hated Lebron and was very jealous.  Lebron sort of reveled in it as he could do anything he wanted.  Everything Cleveland did in terms of roster building was to Lebron's insistence UNTIL the Kyrie trade and that's because...

  • Neither one trusted the other, which was obvious when LeBron only signed one-plus-one deals. Keep in mind, James signed a three-year (plus a player option) with both the Miami Heat and now with the Lakers.
  • If Gilbert trusted that LeBron would stay past 2018, last summer could have been much different. Instead of preparing for life after LeBron by wanting a first-round pick, they could have traded for Paul George, among others.
  • Blame is on both sides. Gilbert shouldn’t have built for the future when he has a once-in-a-generation-type player; LeBron could have given a commitment like he did with Heat, Lakers.

It gave Lebron the excuse he needed to leave..... something they hit on earlier, which a few of them always thought was inevitable.  Dan Gilbert actually doesn't come off bad in the podcast.  His biggest crime, which will always haunt him, was crushing their relationship in 2010.  But when Lebron came back, he kept his word as long as he could but Lebron always had one foot out the door because of trust issues.

  • Salaries/books clean up in two years or less after they lose Tristan Thompson, JR Smith, and Love’s contracts.
  • Failure as an organization if Love is still with the team at the end of the season.
  • Love may want to remain with Cavs.
  • He could go back to his stats that he had with the Timberwolves this season if he remains on the Cavs.
  • All three believe Cleveland will trade Kyle Korver and the Cavs could potentially get a first-round pick in return for the sharpshooter. If not traded, he could be bought out.
  • Rodney Hood will most likely be back with the wine and gold.

Moving on, Hood will probably be matched.  They don't know exactly what they want to do with Love.  Could go either way.   JR and Tristan's contracts are the worst.  Kyle Korver for a first?  Maybe to a championship contender, but otherwise..... hmmm....

  • The Cavs will likely look much better than they truly are because they’re in the East.

Say it again!  The East sucks..... except at the top.  Par for the course for the last 20 years.

Other stuff.  Lue may like the pressure coming off but he alienated both Kyrie and Love as soon as he got promoted.  He was a Leborn suck up.  Love and Lebron aren't exactly besties.  Koby Altman wasn't ready.... but may be eventually for GM.  And they love, love, love Sexton.  Knew in May they wanted him.  Also, their medical staff was a DND on Porter at any cost.

Also, while nobody's ledger is clean in this and most of this has been rumored, Kyrie comes off really bad in this.....

  • Uncle Drew, while not really liking LeBron, also didn’t like head coach Tyronn Lue. Ty took shots at both Kyrie and Kevin Love, both privately and publicly, when he first took the job with the Cavs.
  • The Cavs debated about trading Irving even before LeBron came back, specifically when the wine and gold weren’t sure if they should trade either No. 2 or Dion Waiters.
  • The whole flat Earth thing was a political statement. He wanted to get attention instead of having all of it on LeBron and that was a great way to do so. Kyrie felt slighted by how everything was LeBron, LeBron, LeBron.

Jan Brady syndrome!!!  Boston better watch out.... with their success without Kyrie, he may be looking at a different location next season.

This is really good stuff, if you're into the inner workings of an organization.  All the personalities and dysfunction, it's a tribute to Lebron's on the court greatness they won a title and also sort of an indictment about his habit of sucking the air out of room for his other stars, especially younger players, who either worship at the altar or can feel marginalized.  Some of this isn't his fault, it's other guy's being envious but Lebron doesn't to care much about feelings off the court as long as he gets what he wants on......  Brutal but one can understand it.  It's the pros....

Edited by Patrick Bateman
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Patrick Bateman

Patrick Bateman 3911

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, aggie08 said:

The TV shows and movie deals do seem to verify this.

Yep.... He came when he and the Lakers couldn't get anyone else, signed a deal which gives him no leverage, and only has a promise that the Lakers hopefully become better.... in a year.  For all the hand wringing, it's become obvious the only thing stopping him from going to LA was if California fell into the Pacific.

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