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Show me a third W on this schedule

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mvlonghorns

mvlonghorns 286

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Posted

Wouldn't the computer models actually be underestimating how good we are since most of our results are with Card as the starter? With Ewers at the helm we have had statistically the best offense in the country. Granted, his two fullish games were against two of the worst opponents we will play all year, but that is still damn impressive.

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oSuJeff97

oSuJeff97 3435

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On 10/11/2022 at 11:38 AM, Spider2YBanana said:

Yep, exactly. I'll give Okie St more credit with Grundy, but Dykes? No. I went and looked at their schedule and laughed at how shitty it was, and it made Quentin Johnston's and Savion Williams numbers look even more pathetic. I know QJ is an NFL talent, but Max Duggan is a very shitty qb, but can run if needed. I don't buy the TCU hype at all. Okie Lite will crush them, and so will we. 

Yeah I wonder about TCU - they certainly aren't as good as OU made them look, but they are still capable and I worry about this week's game, mostly because it's in Ft. Worth. I don't think there's a chance we'll "crush them." I just want to get out of town with a W.

Duggan may not be an elite NFL prospect, but I'm not sure I'd describe him as "very shitty."  He's leading the league in passing efficiency by a fairly large margin and is also averaging ~50 ypg rushing.  He's basically like when one of Kansas State's battering ram QBs was really good at passing also...a huge PITA to deal with...

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Valmy77

Valmy77 13431

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Posted
Just now, 6th Street said:

4-2 the rest of the way likely earns us a trip to the Alamo Bowl.

The last time a 3 conference loss team played in the Big 12 title game was 2008 Missouri and that was during the old Division days. I agree. We cannot afford to lose more than 1 the rest of the way to achieve the goal of playing for a conference title.

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Funk Doctor Spock

Funk Doctor Spock 12793

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Posted
3 hours ago, oSuJeff97 said:

Yeah I wonder about TCU - they certainly aren't as good as OU made them look, but they are still capable and I worry about this week's game, mostly because it's in Ft. Worth. I don't think there's a chance we'll "crush them." I just want to get out of town with a W.

Duggan may not be an elite NFL prospect, but I'm not sure I'd describe him as "very shitty."  He's leading the league in passing efficiency by a fairly large margin and is also averaging ~50 ypg rushing.  He's basically like when one of Kansas State's battering ram QBs was really good at passing also...a huge PITA to deal with...

I know exactly who you're thinking of but his name escapes me. Colin something I think? That guy was a huge pain in the ass to deal with, but I don't see Duggan quiye as good as him. That guy was just a machine. I think y'all put a good beat down on the frogs since up to this point they've played absolutely no one with a pulse. I think Tech could probably beat them. I do worry about Duggan's running ability, as well as their RB Miller who's no slouch, but their supposed "NFL WR's" have been very disappointing. Surprisingly, Jared Wiley (former TE here, actually has 2 tds for them), and Quentin Johnston and Jordan Hudson with just 1. Duggan does spread the ball around, which could be an issue, so who knows. I still think they're vastly overrated. 

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oSuJeff97

oSuJeff97 3435

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, Spider2YBanana said:

I know exactly who you're thinking of but his name escapes me. Colin something I think? That guy was a huge pain in the ass to deal with, but I don't see Duggan quiye as good as him. That guy was just a machine. I think y'all put a good beat down on the frogs since up to this point they've played absolutely no one with a pulse. I think Tech could probably beat them. I do worry about Duggan's running ability, as well as their RB Miller who's no slouch, but their supposed "NFL WR's" have been very disappointing. Surprisingly, Jared Wiley (former TE here, actually has 2 tds for them), and Quentin Johnston and Jordan Hudson with just 1. Duggan does spread the ball around, which could be an issue, so who knows. I still think they're vastly overrated. 

Well I hope you're right.

I'm concerned.

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Funk Doctor Spock

Funk Doctor Spock 12793

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Posted
1 hour ago, oSuJeff97 said:

Well I hope you're right.

I'm concerned.

That's just normal concerning game day jitters. We all are, even when we know we'll win. Any give Saturday is a thing. I didn't think we would lose to Tech, yet here we are. But we also had a backup in his second full game, Sanders knows the offense inside and out, and your DC is no slouch. That dude knows his shit, so at least you don't have PK. I just cannot see any way you guys lose to TCU. Not with your defense and DC. Y'alls edge rushers are good, as well as safeties. I'm not sure about your corners, but I believe you'll win by 2-3 TD's. 

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oSuJeff97

oSuJeff97 3435

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Posted
49 minutes ago, Spider2YBanana said:

That's just normal concerning game day jitters. We all are, even when we know we'll win. Any give Saturday is a thing. I didn't think we would lose to Tech, yet here we are. But we also had a backup in his second full game, Sanders knows the offense inside and out, and your DC is no slouch. That dude knows his shit, so at least you don't have PK. I just cannot see any way you guys lose to TCU. Not with your defense and DC. Y'alls edge rushers are good, as well as safeties. I'm not sure about your corners, but I believe you'll win by 2-3 TD's. 

The LBs are what concerns me. Cobb will probably be as star at some point, but he's still pretty green right now. He'll make a dazzling play (like the 4th down stop against Baylor) but then be out of position and give up a big gain on the next play.  They will need to be sound against Duggan and I worry about him busting lots of long runs.

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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 49404

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Posted
4 hours ago, Spider2YBanana said:

I do worry about Duggan's running ability, as well as their RB Miller who's no slouch, but their supposed "NFL WR's" have been very disappointing. Surprisingly, Jared Wiley (former TE here, actually has 2 tds for them), and Quentin Johnston and Jordan Hudson with just 1. Duggan does spread the ball around, which could be an issue, so who knows. I still think they're vastly overrated. 

Screenshot_20221012-210113_kindlephoto-18416340.png.e72c84b28504a91066dc9badca630806.png

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HtownHorn

HtownHorn 14915

Posted
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Doubt a 2 loss team makes it this year. Too many still undefeated. 

and none of those teams have played each other. KU likely wins 1 or 2 more without their QB. KSU is still the team that lost to Tulane, and TCU's schedule has been dogshit. If we go into the bye week at 6-2, we are running the table. Even if we lose @OSU, we are still likely running the table.

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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 52853

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

and none of those teams have played each other. KU likely wins 1 or 2 more without their QB. KSU is still the team that lost to Tulane, and TCU's schedule has been dogshit. If we go into the bye week at 6-2, we are running the table. Even if we lose @OSU, we are still likely running the table.

It sounds like you are arguing about a ccg spot, which we have a good shot at still. But he said playoffs. And for that, there’d likely need to be fewer than 4 undefeated and one loss teams.

even if we end up at 11-2, it’s what you did not what you might have done without a qb injury so unless there’s no way around it, a 2 loss team won’t be in The top 4. 
 

are both usc and ucla going to lost twice?  Ohio state and Michigan?  Alabama, Tennessee, Georgia?  Clemson?  
 

fucking up the lead in Lubbock took us out.  Period. The goal is to win the conference and the bowl game. 

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blutow

blutow 238

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Posted

For any playoff shot, TX would obviously have to win out and it would require another conference champ to have 2 losses.  Neither of those are likely, but stranger things have happened.  We'd probably have a good shot under that scenario with our early losses (unless the other 2 loss champ was SEC, which always seems to trump any logical argument).  Very, very long shot.  

I'd be elated to see a conference championship this year, but I want to see this team play at least one solid road game before I get my hopes up.     

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ermahgerdhorn

ermahgerdhorn 178

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On 10/11/2022 at 12:16 PM, JBJ said:

The B12 is certainly the harder conference to win this year.  WVU is likely on the bottom and likely better than aggy, who is low-mid in the SEC.

Honestly the SEC is going to be a cakewalk compared to the last several years in the B12.  It's going to be one or two hard to hard-ish games a year and a bunch of cupcakes.  The fact that there will be more exposure and more blowjobs from the media along the way will up our recruiting further, which will make the conference easier, which will make recruiting easier, wash, rinse, repeat.  This was bama's formula and we easily step in to those shoes pretty easily our first year or two in the SEC.  Saban got a taste of what he's going to be playing every single year with our game and I think the reality of that is going to make retirement with this legacy intact appear pretty darn appealing.

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Magus Ossis

Magus Ossis 2883

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44 minutes ago, ermahgerdhorn said:

Honestly the SEC is going to be a cakewalk compared to the last several years in the B12.  It's going to be one or two hard to hard-ish games a year and a bunch of cupcakes.  The fact that there will be more exposure and more blowjobs from the media along the way will up our recruiting further, which will make the conference easier, which will make recruiting easier, wash, rinse, repeat.  This was bama's formula and we easily step in to those shoes pretty easily our first year or two in the SEC.  Saban got a taste of what he's going to be playing every single year with our game and I think the reality of that is going to make retirement with this legacy intact appear pretty darn appealing.

The SEC is not the supra-NFL legion of doom some media figures make it out to be, but we need to be careful letting ourselves believe it is easier to win than is the B12. Vandy, Mizzou, and Arky are not exactly murderers row, but winning a conference means coming out ahead of the other schools in contention for winning the conference. In the B12, this year the biggest obstacle to winning the crown appears to be OSU. If we were in the SEC west, we wouldn't even have a shot to play for the title without keeping Bama and Saban out of it (and then taking out UGA or whoever comes out of the east). The SECW currently has two undefeated teams plus a 5-1 Leach with access to SEC talent-- I would call every one of those three games at least hardish. And we mock aggy, but they will do their best to spoil our fun, and historically have done so approximately 33% of the time. And OU will be there, and will not likely stay down long (may I be wrong, o please may I be wrong). If by "cakewalk" you mean "easy to win double digit games without a conference title," then it sounds like I prefer a different kind of cake. I look forward to playing in the SEC, not because I think it will be easier, but because I hope our coaching will be good enough to win regardless.

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sidis

sidis 9832

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Posted
On 10/4/2022 at 11:27 AM, sidis said:

it is remarkable that this site has not figured out that this season is going to be a weekly crow eating exercise...texas is not good enough on defense and it does not have the second half quality play to just assume that there is a single opponent on the schedule left that is a free win ala a kansas in 2014 or something.  the big 12 probably has the greatest level of parity this year than any conference in the history of college football.  there is not a single just outright garbage team and there are no great teams.  everyone is good enough to win each week - especially at home.  everyone is inconsistent and everyone struggles a bit more on the road than at home.  no one except okie state and maybe tcu have done anything this season to set themselves apart in terms of quality.  most everyone has played incredibly lame non-conference schedules so we know nothing about them until the coming weeks.  okstate and tcu (and a little bit estate) both have the material advantage of having 156th year starting qbs.

so every week, the stupid ass false bravado "mudhole bla bla bla" that this board seems to trade in so frequently for 24 hours after we happen to win at home against a not great, not horrible team will end in crow.  similarly, the "we suck we will never win, show me another possible victory" will have the same comeuppance whenever they actually play well enough in the first half to cover their second half ineptitude.

texas is an incredibly frustrating team to root for this year.  they show flashes of genius and their talent shows out every once in a while. but they are simply the worst team in history at stepping on a team's throat to end a game and always have to either make it interesting to the end or collapse with their utter inability to mitigate or stem momentum shifts.  hell, even on saturday, if prather doesn't go full dipshit on the onside kick, shit gets a bit uncomfortable.  sark is who he is...a 7-4 guy who is incapable of winning on the road as the only single game he's won away from dkr required bijan to go full hero mode against a pretty lame tcu team.  he's one of the best o.c.'s in history and a terrible head coach.  pk is embarrassingly bad at his job and opposing offensive coordinators and quarterbacks don't have their best career days ever - despite throwing horrible picks the week before and after - for some mysterious reason...it's obvious.   but we have talent to pull through on some of these.  so every single game from here on out is a coin flip except maybe iowa state at home where it is more like a 70% win probability and okstate where it is probably a 25% probability to win.  as utterly ridiculous as it is to say that, after wandering through the desert for 12 years, it is what it is.  when every game is a coin flip, you win some and you lose some.  you guys let yourself get way too high after wins and way too low after losses for a team that has been so consistently inconsistent.  it is inevitable with a young, talented team with an underperforming coaching staff that the inconsistency is how it will go.

we all know deep down that even though ou looked embarrassing last week, we have absolutely no idea how it will go.  if we had our 2008 team and ou looked like that, we would be confident in a 28-42 point win...that's what it is like to have a great team which we were then.  that's not who we are now.  but after seeing them blow the lead they did last year (that should have forced a coaching staff with any pride to completely disband themselves in some sort of honorable seppuku), that's just who texas is right now.  literally no outcome in that game would shock me except maybe a full blown blowout ou win.  and frankly, that is pretty much true for every game remaining on the schedule. 

the one thing that sark has going for him this year is that quinn played really well for a quarter against an above average defense under the brightest of lights before getting hurt...so it has convinced a lot of us that we are playing with one arm tied behind our back and when quinn gets back, we will take a huge leap forward.  maybe there is some truth to that.  card being literally the worst deep ball accuracy qb i have ever seen may make that at least a little bit true but that doesn't fix giving up 6 fourth downs, a lack of edge rush, incompetent onside recovery fundamentals, predictability, never throwing out of the roschon wildcat, misuse of bijan, and defensive second half collapses in any way.  we aren't terrible, we aren't great.  we are inconsistently good.  some (me) would say that is a frustrating place to exist.  some would say it makes the sport great and the uncertainty makes it more entertaining and interesting.  but going full on despondent fatalist after every loss or going full blown false bravado message board chest thumping after wins with this team are equally dumb when this is what we have.

ugh, i didn't intend for such an outrageous wall of text.

If all you fucking morons who are incapable of reading more than a couple of words or gifs at a time would have actually taken the time to read the quoted post, you would not be surprised by what is happening in front of you right now. 

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F250

F250 28942

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Posted
19 minutes ago, sidis said:

If all you fucking morons who are incapable of reading more than a couple of words or gifs at a time would have actually taken the time to read the quoted post, you would not be surprised by what is happening in front of you right now. 

aint-nobody-got-time-for-that.gif

 

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sidis

sidis 9832

Posted
Posted
On 10/4/2022 at 11:27 AM, sidis said:

it is remarkable that this site has not figured out that this season is going to be a weekly crow eating exercise...texas is not good enough on defense and it does not have the second half quality play to just assume that there is a single opponent on the schedule left that is a free win ala a kansas in 2014 or something.  the big 12 probably has the greatest level of parity this year than any conference in the history of college football.  there is not a single just outright garbage team and there are no great teams.  everyone is good enough to win each week - especially at home.  everyone is inconsistent and everyone struggles a bit more on the road than at home.  no one except okie state and maybe tcu have done anything this season to set themselves apart in terms of quality.  most everyone has played incredibly lame non-conference schedules so we know nothing about them until the coming weeks.  okstate and tcu (and a little bit estate) both have the material advantage of having 156th year starting qbs.

so every week, the stupid ass false bravado "mudhole bla bla bla" that this board seems to trade in so frequently for 24 hours after we happen to win at home against a not great, not horrible team will end in crow.  similarly, the "we suck we will never win, show me another possible victory" will have the same comeuppance whenever they actually play well enough in the first half to cover their second half ineptitude.

texas is an incredibly frustrating team to root for this year.  they show flashes of genius and their talent shows out every once in a while. but they are simply the worst team in history at stepping on a team's throat to end a game and always have to either make it interesting to the end or collapse with their utter inability to mitigate or stem momentum shifts.  hell, even on saturday, if prather doesn't go full dipshit on the onside kick, shit gets a bit uncomfortable.  sark is who he is...a 7-4 guy who is incapable of winning on the road as the only single game he's won away from dkr required bijan to go full hero mode against a pretty lame tcu team.  he's one of the best o.c.'s in history and a terrible head coach.  pk is embarrassingly bad at his job and opposing offensive coordinators and quarterbacks don't have their best career days ever - despite throwing horrible picks the week before and after - for some mysterious reason...it's obvious.   but we have talent to pull through on some of these.  so every single game from here on out is a coin flip except maybe iowa state at home where it is more like a 70% win probability and okstate where it is probably a 25% probability to win.  as utterly ridiculous as it is to say that, after wandering through the desert for 12 years, it is what it is.  when every game is a coin flip, you win some and you lose some.  you guys let yourself get way too high after wins and way too low after losses for a team that has been so consistently inconsistent.  it is inevitable with a young, talented team with an underperforming coaching staff that the inconsistency is how it will go.

we all know deep down that even though ou looked embarrassing last week, we have absolutely no idea how it will go.  if we had our 2008 team and ou looked like that, we would be confident in a 28-42 point win...that's what it is like to have a great team which we were then.  that's not who we are now.  but after seeing them blow the lead they did last year (that should have forced a coaching staff with any pride to completely disband themselves in some sort of honorable seppuku), that's just who texas is right now.  literally no outcome in that game would shock me except maybe a full blown blowout ou win.  and frankly, that is pretty much true for every game remaining on the schedule. 

the one thing that sark has going for him this year is that quinn played really well for a quarter against an above average defense under the brightest of lights before getting hurt...so it has convinced a lot of us that we are playing with one arm tied behind our back and when quinn gets back, we will take a huge leap forward.  maybe there is some truth to that.  card being literally the worst deep ball accuracy qb i have ever seen may make that at least a little bit true but that doesn't fix giving up 6 fourth downs, a lack of edge rush, incompetent onside recovery fundamentals, predictability, never throwing out of the roschon wildcat, misuse of bijan, and defensive second half collapses in any way.  we aren't terrible, we aren't great.  we are inconsistently good.  some (me) would say that is a frustrating place to exist.  some would say it makes the sport great and the uncertainty makes it more entertaining and interesting.  but going full on despondent fatalist after every loss or going full blown false bravado message board chest thumping after wins with this team are equally dumb when this is what we have.

ugh, i didn't intend for such an outrageous wall of text.

 

On 10/8/2022 at 4:52 PM, Sleep off ugly said:

0

41. 

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sidis

sidis 9832

Posted
Posted

For simpleton dumbfucks like Henry Hill that are too damned stupid to understand the purpose of my post above, they will see the manifestation of exactly what I stated in my original post…a weekly crow eating exercise for anyone who stakes out too extreme a position about this team. They aren’t good enough to be good every week, they aren’t shitty enough to be shitty every week. Both the defense and the offense as I pointed out.

defense shuts out a terrible team without a qb? Shit talk. “Teehee, 0 points” as if that was indicative of a fucking thing. Two weeks later they give up 41 points to a mediocre team…shit talk. 

Quinn is the greatest! A week later, Quinn sucks!

This is the curse of being an inconsistent, but decent/good team with a mediocre ass coach. 

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Henry Hill

Henry Hill 3156

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Posted

@sidis Are you done sucking yourself off? Congrats on writing a novel that highlights nothing original with season themes the majority of this site are already well aware of.

Quoting yourself in a “show me a 3rd win” thread in an “I told you so” fashion after this loss when we’re 5-3 is the biggest puss move I’ve seen in quite some time.

Fucking hell our fans suck.

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sidis

sidis 9832

Posted
Posted
43 minutes ago, Henry Hill said:

@sidis Are you done sucking yourself off? Congrats on writing a novel that highlights nothing original with season themes the majority of this site are already well aware of.

Quoting yourself in a “show me a 3rd win” thread in an “I told you so” fashion after this loss when we’re 5-3 is the biggest puss move I’ve seen in quite some time.

Fucking hell our fans suck.

Cool, you’re illiterate. Congrats on that. 

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
On 9/24/2022 at 10:52 PM, The Ace of Aces said:

My gut says the finish with 4 wins, but looking at the schedule I think it’ll be 3. We beat TCU, that’s it. Ewers makes no difference when your D is absolutely exposed. Kansas will best us by 2 or 3 TDs imo. OU will be … ugly 

Lol

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 46470

Posted
Posted
On 9/24/2022 at 10:52 PM, The Ace of Aces said:

My gut says the finish with 4 wins, but looking at the schedule I think it’ll be 3. We beat TCU, that’s it. Ewers makes no difference when your D is absolutely exposed. Kansas will best us by 2 or 3 TDs imo. OU will be … ugly 

Reading through this thread . . . this one stood out.

 

3 (maybe 4) wins -- nope.

Beat TCU -- nope.

Kansas and OU throttle us -- nope.

 

Hey Ace, stay away from Vegas.

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gmr548

gmr548 16635

Posted
Posted
Ewers will win games, he is that good, but we will never be close to elite with PK as our DC.  And sark is allowing this to happen 
 
It’s jsut so god damn frustrating 

Not picking on you personally because I know this was a pretty widely held belief and I was certainly there with the defense, but oh man the group think whiffed.
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