Game Week Thread Game Week West Virginia

[Slacks 6821]

On 9/25/2022 at 12:43 PM, Atticus said:

Dude. 
 

Maalik* Murphy is NOT a running qb. He’s actually less mobile than Ewers/Manning. 

But he's more Black Panther.

[Codaxx 5739]

14 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

I keep seeing this. I feel like Worthy was the only receiver that didn’t have major issues with drops last year.

During the Tech game I believe they posted a stat that has Worthy with 9 drops coming into the Tech game (might have included the one in Tech)

[BurntOrange&White 39933]

If I'm WVU I'm dink and dunking the ball on short passes, once we adjust to that I'm hitting the middle intermediate of the field. If you're at midfield or Texas territory, go for it on 4th downs.

 

On defense I'm attacking the interior OL big time.

[JBJ 3654]

17 hours ago, taybo20 said:

Yeah I’m not sure how PFF really works or the grades for that matter.

I will say it was amazingly frustrating to see us 1 step from a sack only to have a completion made across the middle. 

If the QB pulls to run upfield before contact, PFF counts it as a TFL and not a sack.

I think our two sacks against Tech came when Tech QB tried to pull and run up the middle and the spy got him.  And another where he was chased out of bounds.

 

[Hookem2147 21284]

30 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

I keep seeing this. I feel like Worthy was the only receiver that didn’t have major issues with drops last year.

Like was mentioned above, they showed a graphic during the game that said worthy leads the big 12 in drops the last two seasons.

[gmr548 16580]

If I'm WVU I'm dink and dunking the ball on short passes, once we adjust to that I'm hitting the middle intermediate of the field. If you're at midfield or Texas territory, go for it on 4th downs.
 
On defense I'm attacking the interior OL big time.

I wouldn’t worry about that too much

[Longboard Horn 40323]

20 minutes ago, Auto Driller said:

If Quinn is >75% healed, we need him to start this game. If we roll out the ultra limited Card offense again they are going to stack the box all game and we’ll see our defense on the field for 80+ plays. This is a completely different team with Quinn at the helm. Two consecutive losses going into OU may be enough to break them mentally again.

I feel like this will boost our mentality for OU. We should be able to beat them if we play them like we did Bama with a nothing to lose attitude. 

[GreenspointTexas 9602]

3 hours ago, DoubleQuarterPounder said:

Whittington has looked good. Hope he returns next year. Milton made a great catch to get us in fg range, made me wonder why he doesn’t get more opportunities. Hall hopefully gets going soon. I guess Omeire is a thing of the past? Is Worthy only capable of running straight? 

I thought Whittington has publicly said that this year will be his last?

[gmr548 16580]

During the Tech game I believe they posted a stat that has Worthy with 9 drops coming into the Tech game (might have included the one in Tech)

Like was mentioned above, they showed a graphic during the game that said worthy leads the big 12 in drops the last two seasons.

Yeah, not necessarily arguing with y’all, just kind of feel like I’m taking crazy pills.

Wonder if his drop rate is higher this year. Feels like he’s dropped more big plays than he’s made this year. Last year his target volume was so high that you’d expect to see some drops just based on the amount of times he was thrown to.

[Longboard Horn 40323]

 

[immamac 42850]

It was a coaching decision not to play Quinn, not a medical one for those who keep whining about people not knowing what's going on. 

Sark is constantly playing too far ahead in his season and not in the current weeks game except for "big games". Last season he didn't want to play guys who were clearly better because he wanted them to learn the scheme before playing so they didn't develop bad habits. This season he's injury scared because of pre season injuries and early season injuries. 

What he doesn't get is that he needs to play who he has now. If Quinn doesn't want to play cuz he wants to be on the safe side that is different than Quinn wanting to play and the coaches saying he needs to heal more to prevent a more serious injury later on. 

[Hookem2147 21284]

 

[BurntOrange&White 39933]

7 minutes ago, immamac said:

It was a coaching decision not to play Quinn, not a medical one for those who keep whining about people not knowing what's going on. 

Sark is constantly playing too far ahead in his season and not in the current weeks game except for "big games". Last season he didn't want to play guys who were clearly better because he wanted them to learn the scheme before playing so they didn't develop bad habits. This season he's injury scared because of pre season injuries and early season injuries. 

What he doesn't get is that he needs to play who he has now. If Quinn doesn't want to play cuz he wants to be on the safe side that is different than Quinn wanting to play and the coaches saying he needs to heal more to prevent a more serious injury later on. 

FIRE THIS MOTHER FUCKER SARK RIGHT GOT DAMN NOW!

[Skipper 6135]

21 minutes ago, immamac said:

 

What he doesn't get is that he needs to play who he has now. If Quinn doesn't want to play cuz he wants to be on the safe side that is different than Quinn wanting to play and the coaches saying he needs to heal more to prevent a more serious injury later on. 

I mean if the Dr's are saying a clean hit sets him back another month but waiting a week reduces that risk significantly I don't blame Sark.  If Ewers plays this week that is still on the early side of expected recovery timeline.

[Sir Ulrich 5187]

9 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I mean if the Dr's are saying a clean hit sets him back another month but waiting a week reduces that risk significantly I don't blame Sark.  If Ewers plays this week that is still on the early side of expected recovery timeline.

Also do we have any doubt that Tech would have targeted that shoulder all day? After how they acted after the win (and their entire history) I firmly believe they would have tried to eff him up even more. The risk wasn't worth it and we should have won that game regardless

[gmr548 16580]

20 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I mean if the Dr's are saying a clean hit sets him back another month but waiting a week reduces that risk significantly I don't blame Sark.  If Ewers plays this week that is still on the early side of expected recovery timeline.

This. There's some nuance to it. I think you have to wait until the medical staff says not only "he can play," but "he can play with little/no additional risk." I don't blame him for being cautious with Ewers; and Sark was correct in his assessment that Texas could win without Ewers. Sark and PK just managed to find a way to lose anyway.

If you have to have a generational arm talent on the field to beat Texas Tech, that's a much bigger bigger indictment of your coaching than how cautious you are with injuries.

[Atticus 3973]

The idea that we can roll up with whatever and beat a decent team on the road is ignorant. We are not that program and we haven’t been that program in a long time. 
 

Imagine thinking we could go to Lubbock or Stillwater and win some of those games without colt McCoy. And those colt McCoy teams had much more surrounding talent than we do now. 
 

Give me a fucking break. This team needs all of its resources to win as much as we can this year, so we can get even more resources for the years to come. 
 

You really start to dominate by stacking quality resources that fit into a system. 

[thunderlounge 7832]

8 minutes ago, Atticus said:

The idea that we can roll up with whatever and beat a decent team on the road is ignorant. We are not that program and we haven’t been that program in a long time. 
 

Imagine thinking we could go to Lubbock or Stillwater and win some of those games without colt McCoy. And those colt McCoy teams had much more surrounding talent than we do now. 
 

Give me a fucking break. This team needs all of its resources to win as much as we can this year, so we can get even more resources for the years to come. 
 

You really start to dominate by stacking quality resources that fit into a system. 

Right on.

This is our breaking point. Our achilles tendon, if you will. That is? Patience.

I can see why some are so gun shy. Frustration over Saturday’s performance is warranted. But those frustrations come from a young team, first road game, and you’re the opponents super bowl.

Everybody we play this year had us circled on their schedule. Including Alabama. Who do we have circled? Bama and the cock gobblers. 

One true recruiting class, which was stellar. But that doesn’t make a team. Right now, Ewers can overcome some of the team limitations with his own capabilities. Card cannot.

- Frustration: warranted

- Retardation: not warranted at this time

[Starfleet Command 441]

20 hours ago, taybo20 said:

 

This is like a remarkably awful thing

That goes to coverage, especially the piss poor coverage from the LBs. 

[Atticus 3973]

Having a fully healthy offense would likely have us 4-0 right now. I think Neyor would have been balling out this year. Now, he’s on the Omeire path. 
 

Gotta get Ewers back this week though, this is our easiest remaining game, and a must win if we’re gonna get to 8. 

Edited September 27, 2022 by Atticus

[Poe It Up 126]

Gerry Hamilton said this morning that a loss to WV would be “catastrophic” for recruiting. So um, please Sark, please start Ewers. 

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

On 9/25/2022 at 9:03 AM, Wulaw Horn said:

As I said in that thread, and many other places, if he doesn’t completely kick ass with Ewers he needs to go. Period. End of story.  No excuses. Right now we are running out there a guy that I think everyone agrees isn’t a good, and probably even competent, G5 starter. The results are shit. sarks calling card is scheming and designing and play calling offenses that fuck when he has high level talent. If he can’t do that he has zero rationale for being here. If Ewers comes back and he goes X & 0 or X & 1 then we are in an ok spot. If we don’t see that when we have a QB that isn’t grossly limited then there is zero chance for the regime. 

It’s like you forgot about “sark the player”

[NoName 16352]

25 minutes ago, Hookem2147 said:

 

see some of this is what i hate...i like advanced stats but some of these metrics don't jive with what else is out there.

this has Texas as #54 in NPD, FEI has Texas with the #30 NPD team, #36 on offense and #47 on defense.  https://www.bcftoys.com/2022-ppd/

idk what "net field position" is, but Texas is also #33 in net available yards: https://www.bcftoys.com/2022-ayp/ idk how Texas can literally be last in offensive field position (131 of 131) on offense but #33 in offensive available yards?? makes no sense to me.

[TexasEx 1667]

3 minutes ago, NoName said:

see some of this is what i hate...i like advanced stats but some of these metrics don't jive with what else is out there.

this has Texas as #54 in NPD, FEI has Texas with the #30 NPD team, #36 on offense and #47 on defense.  https://www.bcftoys.com/2022-ppd/

idk what "net field position" is, but Texas is also #33 in net available yards: https://www.bcftoys.com/2022-ayp/ idk how Texas can literally be last in offensive field position (131 of 131) on offense but #33 in offensive available yards?? makes no sense to me.

Approximately 67.5% of all statistics are made up. 

[Cairn Horn88 8264]

1 hour ago, Atticus said:

The idea that we can roll up with whatever and beat a decent team on the road is ignorant. We are not that program and we haven’t been that program in a long time. 
 

Imagine thinking we could go to Lubbock or Stillwater and win some of those games without colt McCoy. And those colt McCoy teams had much more surrounding talent than we do now. 
 

Give me a fucking break. This team needs all of its resources to win as much as we can this year, so we can get even more resources for the years to come. 
 

You really start to dominate by stacking quality resources that fit into a system. 

Our defense feeds off the crowd.  Could not do that at Tech.  Sat will be much better.

[Horn Dog 9855]

18 hours ago, DoubleQuarterPounder said:

It wasn’t Wells it was closetojumping that said Ewers was starting. Dude is wrong the majority of time yet no one calls him out. Just bc he posts multiple paragraphs with shit we can’t verify and most of it ends up being wrong, people here still treat him as an insider. 

It is because he is wrong the majority of the time that we know he is in fact an insider.

[gmr548 16580]

1 hour ago, Atticus said:

The idea that we can roll up with whatever and beat a decent team on the road is ignorant. We are not that program and we haven’t been that program in a long time. 
 

Imagine thinking we could go to Lubbock or Stillwater and win some of those games without colt McCoy. And those colt McCoy teams had much more surrounding talent than we do now. 
 

Give me a fucking break. This team needs all of its resources to win as much as we can this year, so we can get even more resources for the years to come. 
 

You really start to dominate by stacking quality resources that fit into a system. 

It was absolutely correct to think Texas could beat Tech with Hudson Card, as evidenced by Texas being favored by every source, their 14 point late third quarter lead, and 90-whatever percent in-game/98 percent postgame win probability. That's not really debatable. 

If Ewers was medically cleared, but with any kind of caveat about increased risk, sitting him was the correct move. You're correct, the program does absolutely need him long term, and it needs him at full strength. Saturday was not the time to take any kind of elevated risk of jeopardizing that. Texas should have won the game, but even if you thought it meant a certain loss, it was still the right move. We're talking about one conference game against a team not likely to have any influence on CCG tiebreakers should Texas get that far (they won't, even with Ewers, but I digress).

Of course, I know nothing about whether or not that was the case. If he sat him with doctors saying he's good to go, no increased risk, that's indefensible. I just have a hard time believing that would be the case because it makes absolutely no sense.

[Codaxx 5739]

9 minutes ago, Cairn Horn88 said:

Our defense feeds off the crowd.  Could not do that at Tech.  Sat will be much better.

I think some of the issue was PK never adjusted his math. He was playing 3 down football. Give up 6-8 yards on 3rd down is usually a good result. In this game it meant playing defense another play at least. 

[JBJ 3654]

26 minutes ago, NoName said:

see some of this is what i hate...i like advanced stats but some of these metrics don't jive with what else is out there.

this has Texas as #54 in NPD, FEI has Texas with the #30 NPD team, #36 on offense and #47 on defense.  https://www.bcftoys.com/2022-ppd/

idk what "net field position" is, but Texas is also #33 in net available yards: https://www.bcftoys.com/2022-ayp/ idk how Texas can literally be last in offensive field position (131 of 131) on offense but #33 in offensive available yards?? makes no sense to me.

I'm guessing the discrepancy in NPD is adjustment for opponent?  I believe BCFtoys adjusts for opponent on most their stuff.

Net field position = where you start a drive vs where your opponent does.

Offensive field position = where you start a drive.

Available yards = the % of yards you get out of all available yards.  If you start on your 10 and get 10 of 90 yards it's 11% for that drive.  If you start on the opponents 10 and get 10 yards it's 100% for that drive.

So low OFP + high OAY = you start in bad field position but sustain long drives.

[Atticus 3973]

20 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

It was absolutely correct to think Texas could beat Tech with Hudson Card, as evidenced by Texas being favored by every source, their 14 point late third quarter lead, and 90-whatever percent in-game/98 percent postgame win probability. That's not really debatable. 

If Ewers was medically cleared, but with any kind of caveat about increased risk, sitting him was the correct move. You're correct, the program does absolutely need him long term, and it needs him at full strength. Saturday was not the time to take any kind of elevated risk of jeopardizing that. Texas should have won the game, but even if you thought it meant a certain loss, it was still the right move. We're talking about one conference game against a team not likely to have any influence on CCG tiebreakers should Texas get that far (they won't, even with Ewers, but I digress).

Of course, I know nothing about whether or not that was the case. If he sat him with doctors saying he's good to go, no increased risk, that's indefensible. I just have a hard time believing that would be the case because it makes absolutely no sense.

Texas with Worthy on the field probably beats Tech. 
Texas with just Card and someone on defense making a fucking routine play on 4th down beats Tech. 
Texas with just Card and people not doing retarded shit on 3rd and long beats Tech. 
 

Card was not the issue in that game, but the margin for error is smaller with him at QB. 
 

We had a shit ton of error in that fucking game. 

Edited September 27, 2022 by Atticus

[Starfleet Command 441]

35 minutes ago, NoName said:

see some of this is what i hate...i like advanced stats but some of these metrics don't jive with what else is out there.

this has Texas as #54 in NPD, FEI has Texas with the #30 NPD team, #36 on offense and #47 on defense.  https://www.bcftoys.com/2022-ppd/

idk what "net field position" is, but Texas is also #33 in net available yards: https://www.bcftoys.com/2022-ayp/ idk how Texas can literally be last in offensive field position (131 of 131) on offense but #33 in offensive available yards?? makes no sense to me.

This is purely based on current season EPA and isn't a projection system.  Without looking at quality of competition, Texas has been pretty much awful this season at generating EPA.  

[NoName 16352]

4 minutes ago, Starfleet Command said:

This is purely based on current season EPA and isn't a projection system.  Without looking at quality of competition, Texas has been pretty much awful this season at generating EPA.  

yeah the EPA numbers are correct.

at least they are kind of promising on dropbacks? 80th percentile in EPA per dropback vs ULM and somehow finished at 58th percentile vs Bama (was much, much, much higher with Ewers than Card - Ewers finished at .76 EPA/play vs Card at -0.15)

EPA per dropback/ EPA per rush / EPA per play

• ULM: 80th%tile / 53rd %tile / 80th %tile (0.21)
• Bama: 58%ttile / 29%tile / 41%tile (0.01)
• UTSA - not on gameonpaper for some reason - no pbp
• TTU - 74%tile / 36%tile / 68%tile (0.14)

big takeaway, christ...Texas is bad at generating EPA per rush and somehow even worse at HAVOC rate...and even WORSE at defensive run stop rate (ULM, 0th percentile, Bama 1st %tile, TTU 9th%tile)

if you want to really be sick look at the stats for the first half vs Bama. 98%tile EPA/play, 99%tile EPA/drop back...ugh.

 

Spoiler

if they are keeping Ewers out as a coaching decision and not a medical decision that is coaching malpractice.

TTU data:

Spoiler

 

[Nicole44 22060]

I totally forgot that Graham Harrell is the WVU OC...not that it matters but there is context...

Some interesting stuff from WVU...

Does their DC mean Jordan is seeing trends like the play calling not being situational and turtling in the second half and calling the RoCat a bazillion times without passing and making Bijan run up the middle? Horribly written tweet.

[Hookem2147 21284]

12 minutes ago, NoName said:

yeah the EPA numbers are correct.

at least they are kind of promising on dropbacks? 80th percentile in EPA per dropback vs ULM and somehow finished at 58th percentile vs Bama (was much, much, much higher with Ewers than Card - Ewers finished at .76 EPA/play vs Card at -0.15)

EPA per dropback/ EPA per rush / EPA per play

• ULM: 80th%tile / 53rd %tile / 80th %tile (0.21)
• Bama: 58%ttile / 29%tile / 41%tile (0.01)
• UTSA - not on gameonpaper for some reason - no pbp
• TTU - 74%tile / 36%tile / 68%tile (0.14)

big takeaway, christ...Texas is bad at generating EPA per rush and somehow even worse at HAVOC rate...and even WORSE at defensive run stop rate (ULM, 0th percentile, Bama 1st %tile, TTU 9th%tile)

if you want to really be sick look at the stats for the first half vs Bama. 98%tile EPA/play, 99%tile EPA/drop back...ugh.

 

  Reveal hidden contents

if they are keeping Ewers out as a coaching decision and not a medical decision that is coaching malpractice.

TTU data:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Run stop rate is when a runner is tackled at or behind the LOS, correct? I guess we aren't inflicting a ton of negative plays when teams run the ball but it sure feels like we are holding a lot of runs to 2 and 3 yards a pop.

Edited September 27, 2022 by Hookem2147

[Pig Bellmont 8718]

4 hours ago, Longboard Horn said:

 

Wow. That’s ridiculous 

[Hookem2147 21284]

9 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

Does their DC mean Jordan is seeing trends like the play calling not being situational and turtling in the second half and calling the RoCat a bazillion times without passing and making Bijan run up the middle? Horribly written tweet.

It literally says in the tweet that he looks for trends if they are evident, but even if they are evident it might not translate week to week.

[Sgt Hulk 13716]

Guys chill. We’re Texas.  🤣🤣🤣

 

I want zone read. Hudson is a fairly decent runner. Let him pull the ball some and fuck with the defense 

[Longhornlove 4829]

4 hours ago, Hookem2147 said:

Like was mentioned above, they showed a graphic during the game that said worthy leads the big 12 in drops the last two seasons.

And I got negged in the game thread for saying he needed to catch the ball.

[Horn Dog 9855]

44 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

I totally forgot that Graham Harrell is the WVU OC...not that it matters but there is context...

Some interesting stuff from WVU...

Does their DC mean Jordan is seeing trends like the play calling not being situational and turtling in the second half and calling the RoCat a bazillion times without passing and making Bijan run up the middle? Horribly written tweet.

I'm pretty sure he is saying that Sark and PK are not good play callers since good ones make adjustments.

[Nicole44 22060]

3 minutes ago, Horn Dog said:

I'm pretty sure he is saying that Sark and PK are not good play callers since good ones make adjustments.

I think teams are starting to realize that we put all our good stuff in the first half...then we expect the other team to come out flat in the second and just "talent" our way to a win. I guess. We drop all our candy in the lobby in the first half...and look like a busted open empty pinata in the second half? I don't know. I just know that we all know the refs won't be on our side. And Kansas is a revenge game now. I never understood that whole chess thing (when it comes to a football season)...sure you want to see the bigger picture but every game in the Big 12 is like checkers...you can't overlook one game. So if we were just saving all the marbles for OU...that's dumb. Tech was and always will be a killer of Big 12 dreams for us. 

[ClubWhatever 12144]

32 minutes ago, Longhornlove said:

And I got negged in the game thread for saying he needed to catch the ball.

My condolences

[Cairn Horn88 8264]

32 minutes ago, Longhornlove said:

And I got negged in the game thread for saying he needed to catch the ball.

WRs know that rule #1 is to Catch The Ball!

[Duane Moore 5237]

12 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

I think teams are starting to realize that we put all our good stuff in the first half...then we expect the other team to come out flat in the second and just "talent" our way to a win. I guess. We drop all our candy in the lobby in the first half...and look like a busted open empty pinata in the second half? I don't know. I just know that we all know the refs won't be on our side. And Kansas is a revenge game now. I never understood that whole chess thing (when it comes to a football season)...sure you want to see the bigger picture but every game in the Big 12 is like checkers...you can't overlook one game. So if we were just saving all the marbles for OU...that's dumb. Tech was and always will be a killer of Big 12 dreams for us. 

Right. They need to understand that we can win every game left on the schedule, and we can lose every game left on the schedule. Don’t “save” anything, game plan for what will work against the team we are playing this week and use it. And if it works in the first quarter on the script, don’t be afraid to go back to it until the other team stops it. 

[NoName 16352]

1 hour ago, Sgt Hulk said:

Guys chill. We’re Texas.  🤣🤣🤣

 

I want zone read. Hudson is a fairly decent runner. Let him pull the ball some and fuck with the defense 

Healthy Hudson Card is a decent runner...this is pretty clearly not a healthy Hudson Card

[SHOOTER12 8810]

On 9/25/2022 at 8:45 AM, immamac said:

Tailgate opens at 2PM. What do we want this games theme to be? 

"Leaking Douchebag D"?

[Nicole44 22060]

9 minutes ago, Duane Moore said:

Right. They need to understand that we can win every game left on the schedule, and we can lose every game left on the schedule. Don’t “save” anything, game plan for what will work against the team we are playing this week and use it. And if it works in the first quarter on the script, don’t be afraid to go back to it until the other team stops it. 

It's one thing if you have walk-ons like UTSA. They gave their first half punch all they had. We were able to out-talent them. I respected what UTSA did in the first half knowing they wouldn't have much ability to take us down in the second. I don't understand what Sark is doing. Maybe Sark read too many of his press clippings after the Bama game? The Tech game was monumentally frustrating (and bittersweet because of my uncle Bill) to watch because I thought...well the outcome will be the same as UTSA because Tech doesn't have the personnel to beat us. I'm not paid millions to be a head coach of anything. Or sell my $7.5 million dollar house...(tweet below...that house to me isn't even on Kliff's level but whatever) but knowing I am just an armchair QB at best that knows a little about football...its kinda frightening that I might have had the same thought as Sark during that game. You can't just blame it on one play or one player...it was a snowball effect and if you go back and look at the majority of Sark's losses here at Texas you see it...

 

[Fondren & Main 6718]

Must be trying to not get upside down on the house note.

[Longhornlove 4829]

49 minutes ago, ClubWhatever said:

My condolences

[gmr548 16580]

Texas with Worthy on the field probably beats Tech. 
Texas with just Card and someone on defense making a fucking routine play on 4th down beats Tech. 
Texas with just Card and people not doing retarded shit on 3rd and long beats Tech. 
 
Card was not the issue in that game, but the margin for error is smaller with him at QB. 
 
We had a shit ton of error in that fucking game. 

Oh I don’t disagree. I was just addressing your post saying we can’t expect to win on the road, certainly that game. If it’s was a calculation to sit Ewers because additional injury risk outweighed increased chances of winning, I think their logic was correct, because as we saw, the game was very much winnable with what they brought to Lubbock. They just failed in making it happen.

[Hank Kingsley 20940]

With proper coaching and preparation we should be able to beat Tech with Card and three backups starting at WR. 

The ifs and buts should be directed specifically at the coaching staff. Players were not put in a position to thrive in this game.