2022 Gubernatorial (and other state) races

[Gil Bang 26174]

Might as well have it's own thread.

 

PA is getting comical.

 

Edited October 7, 2022 by Gil Bang

[StassneyHorn 6755]

What's going on in Oregon?

[Js1 86929]

11 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

What's going on in Oregon?

A former Dem turned indie is sucking up 1/5 of the vote 

[Voldemort86 2259]

Sabato moved Michigan and Pennsylvania governor today from lean dem to likely dem. It seems like a missed opportunity for the dems that there is no senate seat up this cycle in Michigan. Michigan seems pretty blue this time around, especially with the abortion ballot question and a popular governor on the ballot.

Edited September 29, 2022 by Voldemort86

[Gil Bang 26174]

 

[Gil Bang 26174]

 

[Zonahorn 8079]

Need Katie Hobbs to get her shit together

[Post Oak 20551]

On 9/29/2022 at 8:14 PM, Gil Bang said:

 

Holy Shit.  Peter Coyote.  

[David Dennison 19440]

 

[Gil Bang 26174]

 

[tx 3 putt 78468]

 

[The Dog 44771]

 

[Js1 86929]

49 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

Just a reminder of how awful Kristi Noem is electorally in fucking NORTH DAKOTA 

2010 - won ND House race 48-46 in a red wave year
2012 - won 57-43 (Romney won 58-39)
2014 - won 67-33 in another red wave year
2016 - won 64-36 (Trump won 63-27)
2018 - won ND Governor race 51-48

She also only got 76% of the primary vote in 2022. 

[Voldemort86 2259]

36 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Just a reminder of how awful Kristi Noem is electorally in fucking NORTH DAKOTA 

2010 - won ND House race 48-46 in a red wave year
2012 - won 57-43 (Romney won 58-39)
2014 - won 67-33 in another red wave year
2016 - won 64-36 (Trump won 63-27)
2018 - won ND Governor race 51-48

She also only got 76% of the primary vote in 2022. 

Really makes the prospect of her running for president seem like such a joke doesn’t it? I really really fucking hate this woman so bad. I’m a big supporter of marijuana legalization and she goes out of her way to shit on it at every turn. Drug warriors are the worst.

[Js1 86929]

Just now, Voldemort86 said:

Really makes the prospect of her running for president seem like such a joke doesn’t it? I really really fucking hate this woman so bad. I’m a big supporter of marijuana legalization and she goes out of her way to shit on it at every turn. Drug warriors are the worst.

She’s running for Trump‘s VP nominee. 

[Js1 86929]

On 9/30/2022 at 6:12 PM, Zonahorn said:

Need Katie Hobbs to get her shit together

Need Adrian Fontes to get his shit together

 

 

[Zonahorn 8079]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Need Adrian Fontes to get his shit together

 

 

I have no fucking clue what's happening in the SoS race

[The Dog 44771]

 

[Js1 86929]

There's been quite a few polls showing Stitt really in a close race with Joy Hofmeister (Dem, former GOP, and current Superintendent of Public Instruction)

The 2 most recent polls were +1R and +3R - IN OKLAHOMA

@'stache

 

 

Edited October 7, 2022 by Js1

['stache 22115]

14 minutes ago, Js1 said:

There's been quite a few polls showing Stitt really in a close race with Joy Hofmeister (Dem, turned GOP, and current Superintendent of Public Instruction)

The 2 most recent polls were +1R and +3R - IN OKLAHOMA

@'stache

 

 

Other way around, she's a Republican who switched to Democrat for this race. It's 100% about public education. He and his lackey Ryan Walters (who Stitt appointed as Secretary of Education and is now on the ballot for State Superintendent) have royally fucked up and overplayed their right-wing hand. They pressed hard for private school vouchers and their own supermajority of deep red state legislators rejected the plan. Stitt and friends forgot that the rural areas don't have private schools so they saw it as taking money from them to fund the rich private schools in Tulsa and OKC. They are still talking about it which is why the polls are turning on them. The Democrat in the state superintendent's race Jena Nelson had a 5 point lead last time I saw over Walters. Hofmeister was still a point behind in that poll.

The Dem strategy is all in on education right now and Stitt and Walters are falling for it hook line and sinker, continually pressing for book bans, trashing teachers and librarians, and saying the word "woke" over and over and over again to the point it has no real meaning anymore. Add in some Indian people who are traditionally republican who hate Stitt's guts for continuing to shit on the tribes, and it could very well be a perfect storm to get those fucks out of office. I posted on the other thread but Stitt's Secretary of State fucked around with the recreational marijuana question and ensured it missed the deadline for the November ballot. Had that not happened a bunch of pro-pot and libertarian types would have shown up and likely put Hoffmeister and Nelson over the top. Kendra Horn is running for Senate as a Democrat to take Inhofe's seat, she won a seat in the House in 2018 and credits the medical marijuana question that year for bringing out some typical nonvoters who voted for her along with the pot question. I suspect someone informed Stitt and he fucked around like a typical piece of right wing shit. 

I'm tempering my expectations but I really think we have a shot. My part of town isn't representative of the state but there are Hoffmeister and Nelson signs literally everywhere and I haven't seen a single Stitt sign, even in the suburbs (although I rarely am out there). I think Stitt might have overplayed his hand on education and the tribes and taken it for granted that the state is so deeply red. He might have finally pissed off enough people to get typical non-voters to the polls to make is dumbass go away and rural republicans who are willing to vote for Hoffmeister and Nelson to protect their own public schools. 

Edited October 7, 2022 by 'stache

[Js1 86929]

Thanks i fixed it - I meant to say Dem, GOP turned Dem, but left that off.  

[Voldemort86 2259]

2 hours ago, 'stache said:

Other way around, she's a Republican who switched to Democrat for this race. It's 100% about public education. He and his lackey Ryan Walters (who Stitt appointed as Secretary of Education and is now on the ballot for State Superintendent) have royally fucked up and overplayed their right-wing hand. They pressed hard for private school vouchers and their own supermajority of deep red state legislators rejected the plan. Stitt and friends forgot that the rural areas don't have private schools so they saw it as taking money from them to fund the rich private schools in Tulsa and OKC. They are still talking about it which is why the polls are turning on them. The Democrat in the state superintendent's race Jena Nelson had a 5 point lead last time I saw over Walters. Hofmeister was still a point behind in that poll.

The Dem strategy is all in on education right now and Stitt and Walters are falling for it hook line and sinker, continually pressing for book bans, trashing teachers and librarians, and saying the word "woke" over and over and over again to the point it has no real meaning anymore. Add in some Indian people who are traditionally republican who hate Stitt's guts for continuing to shit on the tribes, and it could very well be a perfect storm to get those fucks out of office. I posted on the other thread but Stitt's Secretary of State fucked around with the recreational marijuana question and ensured it missed the deadline for the November ballot. Had that not happened a bunch of pro-pot and libertarian types would have shown up and likely put Hoffmeister and Nelson over the top. Kendra Horn is running for Senate as a Democrat to take Inhofe's seat, she won a seat in the House in 2018 and credits the medical marijuana question that year for bringing out some typical nonvoters who voted for her along with the pot question. I suspect someone informed Stitt and he fucked around like a typical piece of right wing shit. 

I'm tempering my expectations but I really think we have a shot. My part of town isn't representative of the state but there are Hoffmeister and Nelson signs literally everywhere and I haven't seen a single Stitt sign, even in the suburbs (although I rarely am out there). I think Stitt might have overplayed his hand on education and the tribes and taken it for granted that the state is so deeply red. He might have finally pissed off enough people to get typical non-voters to the polls to make is dumbass go away and rural republicans who are willing to vote for Hoffmeister and Nelson to protect their own public schools. 

Stitt is terrible. He’s a freak with his anti vax viewpoints among other things.  Do you think Oklahoma will approve recreational when it finally does get on the ballot? They would make so much money from DFW / north Texans.

[Gil Bang 26174]

On 10/6/2022 at 1:17 PM, Zonahorn said:

I have no fucking clue what's happening in the SoS race

This post inspired me to change the thread title.  Lots of interesting SOS and other state races. 

[Zonahorn 8079]

In other news, a three-way clusterfuck is going to cost Democrats the mansion in Oregon.

 

[Js1 86929]

18 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

In other news, a three-way clusterfuck is going to cost Democrats the mansion in Oregon.

 

Tina Johnson is a spoiler DINO running as an I because she has an axe to grind. Gotta hope that third party support is, as often is, overstated and will go down closer to Election Day 

[tx 3 putt 78468]

 

[Gil Bang 26174]

 

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

17 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

 

 

What a loon.

[Js1 86929]

And that’s why Stitt flipped out earlier 

 

[tx 3 putt 78468]

that would be huge 

[atomheartbevo 90544]

4 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Do you think Oklahoma will approve recreational when it finally does get on the ballot? They would make so much money from DFW / north Texans.

Based on my relatives in Oklahoma, they’ll pass.  Seems like a lot of my rural relatives have taken a crack at growing it, or have thought about it.  And it seems like every little town we pass through when going up there has a dispensary, and a fuckload of billboards on the highways brag about it (I remember one that said something like “We do smoke marijuana in Muskogee”.

[atomheartbevo 90544]

7 hours ago, 'stache said:

He and his lackey Ryan Walters (who Stitt appointed as Secretary of Education and is now on the ballot for State Superintendent) have royally fucked up and overplayed their right-wing hand. They pressed hard for private school vouchers and their own supermajority of deep red state legislators rejected the plan. Stitt and friends forgot that the rural areas don't have private schools so they saw it as taking money from them to fund the rich private schools in Tulsa and OKC.

My Okie relatives (including my Cherokee relatives) are all up in NE Oklahoma, and yeah, the school thing and the tribal stuff has pissed off most of them.  They’ve watched some of the smaller rural schools in their area close over the last 5-10 years, and they are all pissed that more will follow, while the right-wing politicians are all in favor or private schools and making sure everybody knows they want those private schools.  Some of them won’t shut up about it, like the Freedom Caucus we have here in Texas that wants everybody to know they are going after women who need abortions.

 It’s like Texas - these mallet towns/rural areas somewhat revolve around their schools - sports in particular, but also schools going away makes it hard on real estate market and the small businesses that are in these small towns.  

I’ve picked up on the same rural vs big city vibes in Oklahoma that I’ve seen here in Texas, it’s just reversed in OK.

['stache 22115]

Also this. Fuck Stitt, even a bunch of hard right republicans hate his guts. He could have done literally nothing and kept the job forever with a R by his name, thank goodness he didn’t and showed his ass at every turn. Still not comfortable but a little hopeful.

Edited October 8, 2022 by 'stache

[Gil Bang 26174]

[HRSchenker 2331]

On 10/7/2022 at 3:40 PM, 'stache said:

The Dem strategy is all in on education right now and Stitt and Walters are falling for it hook line and sinker, continually pressing for book bans, trashing teachers and librarians, and saying the word "woke" over and over and over again to the point it has no real meaning anymore. Add in some Indian people who are traditionally republican who hate Stitt's guts for continuing to shit on the tribes, and it could very well be a perfect storm to get those fucks out of office. I posted on the other thread but Stitt's Secretary of State fucked around with the recreational marijuana question and ensured it missed the deadline for the November ballot. Had that not happened a bunch of pro-pot and libertarian types would have shown up and likely put Hoffmeister and Nelson over the top. Kendra Horn is running for Senate as a Democrat to take Inhofe's seat, she won a seat in the House in 2018 and credits the medical marijuana question that year for bringing out some typical nonvoters who voted for her along with the pot question. I suspect someone informed Stitt and he fucked around like a typical piece of right wing shit. 

Why would Oklahoma vote for medical marijuana when yall already have recreational marijuana? I had to research that and I came across this

Quote

Paul Tay, a 2022 gubernatorial candidate and former Tulsa mayoral candidate, alleged that the initiative is unconstitutional and that signatures collected for it in Native American territory would be invalid due to legal precedent set in the U.S. Supreme Court case McGirt v. Oklahoma. 

Paul Tay, everyone

Oh and one more thing

Quote

On August 23, 2021, the Tulsa Police Department arrested Tay on charges of first-degree rape, kidnapping, and assault with a dangerous weapon. According to information released by the Tulsa Police Department's Special Victims Unit, the victim reported that she met Tay in Bethany, Oklahoma, in response to an ad to work for his campaign. She alleged that Tay locked her in his car, hit her with a pipe, and sexually assaulted her. 

[tx 3 putt 78468]

how much did they pay matt damon to work the tulsa mayor debate ?

[The Dog 44771]

internal for the L candidate.

[Mango4 191]

Just a reminder of how awful Kristi Noem is electorally in fucking NORTH DAKOTA 
2010 - won ND House race 48-46 in a red wave year
2012 - won 57-43 (Romney won 58-39)
2014 - won 67-33 in another red wave year
2016 - won 64-36 (Trump won 63-27)
2018 - won ND Governor race 51-48
She also only got 76% of the primary vote in 2022. 

South Dakota, but yeah, she sucks. I think she’s starting to get worried a bit. All her ads are comparing her opponent, Jamie Smith, to Biden. She can’t run on anything she’s done the last 4 years, because there isn’t anything. She recently came out and said if she was re-elected she will work to end the tax on food. Never mind the few Democrats that are in the SD Legislature have been trying to do that for years and she’s always opposed it. Always.

A few hardcore Republicans I know absolutely hate her. I think she’s in legit trouble.

[Voldemort86 2259]

24 minutes ago, Mango4 said:

South Dakota, but yeah, she sucks. I think she’s starting to get worried a bit. All her ads are comparing her opponent, Jamie Smith, to Biden. She can’t run on anything she’s done the last 4 years, because there isn’t anything. She recently came out and said if she was re-elected she will work to end the tax on food. Never mind the few Democrats that are in the SD Legislature have been trying to do that for years and she’s always opposed it. Always.

A few hardcore Republicans I know absolutely hate her. I think she’s in legit trouble.

She’s fucking awful. All she does is be a miserable cunt, oppose everything, and suck trumps balls.

[Incredulity 11860]

18 hours ago, HRSchenker said:

Why would Oklahoma vote for medical marijuana when yall already have recreational marijuana? I had to research that and I came across this

Paul Tay, everyone

Oh and one more thing

"come on Matt Damon, get me out of here"

 

L O fucking L.  

What movie did MD film in Tulsa about 20 or so years ago?  Spitting image.

['stache 22115]

On 10/9/2022 at 2:09 PM, HRSchenker said:

Why would Oklahoma vote for medical marijuana when yall already have recreational marijuana? I had to research that and I came across this

Paul Tay, everyone

Oh and one more thing

Medical MJ was passed in 2018. They got the signatures this year to put recreational on the ballot but Stitt's SOS pulled shenanigans (see above).

Paul Tay was kind of a funny novelty for a while until he got a big ego and started pulling shit like this in public forums and disrupting legitimate political discourse. More recently he threatened to kill a pregnant city councilor's unborn baby because he didn't like her for some reason. I think he's currently in jail for rape or something. He's despicable and many are happy to see him go the fuck away.

Edited October 11, 2022 by 'stache

['stache 22115]

Stitt's education bro appears to be doing poorly. We really need Nelson to win this race. The hope is that many of them will be smart enough to know that he's a Stitt clone and vote his ass out too. Also, the five tribes officially endorse Hofmeister. It won't move the 1/365 Cherokee folks who have to insert themselves into anything Indian related to point out that they are "Indian" and "not offended." But it could sway some active tribal members who are traditionally republican and are sick of Stitt shitting on them at every turn.

 

Edited October 11, 2022 by 'stache

[Gengs1 2583]

If the tribes vote and get more people

registered, the dems could take a senate seat there  

['stache 22115]

5 minutes ago, Gengs1 said:

If the tribes vote and get more people

registered, the dems could take a senate seat there  

They're more pissed at Stitt than republicans in general. Markwayne Mullin is a white guy with a Cherokee card who will probably still win the senate seat. I really like Kendra Horn but we live in a stupid state which will undoubtedly elect a stupid senator. Stitt fucked himself on multiple levels (namely education and the Indians) which has created a perfect storm in which the race might be close but he'll probably still win because, again, we are a stupid state. That its even close is a testament to his idiocy. I seriously question the above poll for state superintendent too. They'll come out with some controversey about transgenders in bathrooms and teachers teaching CRT right before the election to get the trailer trash to the polls. 

Edited October 11, 2022 by 'stache

[Gengs1 2583]

3 hours ago, 'stache said:

They're more pissed at Stitt than republicans in general. Markwayne Mullin is a white guy with a Cherokee card who will probably still win the senate seat. I really like Kendra Horn but we live in a stupid state which will undoubtedly elect a stupid senator. Stitt fucked himself on multiple levels (namely education and the Indians) which has created a perfect storm in which the race might be close but he'll probably still win because, again, we are a stupid state. That its even close is a testament to his idiocy. I seriously question the above poll for state superintendent too. They'll come out with some controversey about transgenders in bathrooms and teachers teaching CRT right before the election to get the trailer trash to the polls. 

Another part is that Dems are really really running shitty campaigns in general and aren’t exploiting the Abortion issue like they should,

scare the shit out of every women out there with scary adds etc but they aren’t doing any of them.

the Florida dems are running the worst campaign you can imagine, I think the amount of flyers the Rs are sending outnumber the dems 20-1. I haven’t seen a Crist add and Desantis is running a well oiled campaign. Everyone R is tied at the hip with him and it’s working. They are bowing to him for 24.

Dems are just causally running around without attacking the Rs about abortion. 
John F seems to being the smartest add campaign out there 

[Bama Chick 28596]

Could you please shut up with your “SCARE THE WOMEN” nonsense?

We don’t need a fucking horror movie about it.

We know.

[Voldemort86 2259]

3 hours ago, Gengs1 said:

Another part is that Dems are really really running shitty campaigns in general and aren’t exploiting the Abortion issue like they should,

scare the shit out of every women out there with scary adds etc but they aren’t doing any of them.

the Florida dems are running the worst campaign you can imagine, I think the amount of flyers the Rs are sending outnumber the dems 20-1. I haven’t seen a Crist add and Desantis is running a well oiled campaign. Everyone R is tied at the hip with him and it’s working. They are bowing to him for 24.

Dems are just causally running around without attacking the Rs about abortion. 
John F seems to being the smartest add campaign out there 

Dems need to send someone competent to try and turn things around in Florida in the future. Not sure who would be up for the job tho.

['stache 22115]

15 hours ago, Gengs1 said:

Another part is that Dems are really really running shitty campaigns in general and aren’t exploiting the Abortion issue like they should,

scare the shit out of every women out there with scary adds etc but they aren’t doing any of them.

the Florida dems are running the worst campaign you can imagine, I think the amount of flyers the Rs are sending outnumber the dems 20-1. I haven’t seen a Crist add and Desantis is running a well oiled campaign. Everyone R is tied at the hip with him and it’s working. They are bowing to him for 24.

Dems are just causally running around without attacking the Rs about abortion. 
John F seems to being the smartest add campaign out there 

Yeah, that won't fly in Oklahoma. Last national poll I saw had just as many women supporting abortion bans as men. There are a lot of rural and suburban church moms who think only loose sluts need abortions, triple that in this shitty state. Hofmeister's only chance is to sway some very republican people to vote for her (or more accurately against Stitt). She has toed a close line on abortion to make sure she maintains the votes of the state democrats by saying she has "shifted" somewhat on the issue and does not support a total abortion ban in the state (remember she was a Republican when she ran for state superintendent just a few years ago). Keep in mind that our legislature overwhelmingly approved the abortion ban, so voters here are still overwhelmingly against abortion rights. She only mentions it when asked, and rightly so. There are two, and only two, issues on which she can win: Education and Tribal Relations. That is where rural republicans can be swayed to vote against Stitt. 

[Js1 86929]

15 hours ago, Bama Chick said:

Could you please shut up with your “SCARE THE WOMEN” nonsense?

We don’t need a fucking horror movie about it.

We know.

If he posts it in seventeen different threads, it might take.

Idk what he's paying attention to, but Dems haven't stopped talking about abortion since July.  Candidates can talk about more than one thing (abortion, democracy, their accomplishments during this past legislative session).

Abortion is still in the news, has stayed in the news, is up there with economy/democracy as a top issue and is talked about a lot.  

[Gil Bang 26174]