2023 NFL DRAFT

[Burt Macklin 19020]

8 hours ago, Texzilla58 said:

The signing bonuses average $9-11k out of the pool. If a UDFA makes the 53 they get a $750k rookie salary, or $44k a week. The bigger guarantee a team might give a player have to come from salary. If they get released and signed to a practice squad contract by they start over and get Iike $12k a week. Only some of the ps players last 18 weeks; others are on and off as team needs and injuries occur. Based on your article players are generally more likely to make a squad by being drafted.

It will be interesting to see how many USFL/XFL players are signed.

It’s irrelevant whether the guarantee comes from salary or signing bonus. Guaranteed money is guaranteed money. 7th round players don’t get any guaranteed money past their signing bonus, so teams can still give UDFAs better contracts than a 7th round pick. 

[Hiphopopotamos 20869]

Dane Brugler's 'Way Too Early' 2024 Mock Draft

https://theathletic.com/4477888/2023/05/02/nfl-mock-draft-2024-caleb-williams/?access_token=595014

6. Washington Commanders: Quinn Ewers, QB, Texas

Only a redshirt sophomore (plus he skipped his senior year of high school), Ewers is still very young in several areas. But he has the top-shelf arm talent to make wow plays look routine. If the mental development catches up to his physical skills, Ewers will be an easy top-10 pick.

 

24. Los Angeles Chargers: J.T. Sanders, TE, Texas

As he developed chemistry with Ewers, Sanders set a school single-season record for a tight end with 54 catches and announced himself as a legitimate pro prospect. His athletic traits have the attention of scouts.

 

Spoiler

2024 NFL Mock Draft: Caleb Williams, Marvin Harrison Jr. lead next year’s class

Dane Brugler

May 2, 2023

64

Is it too early for a 2024 mock draft? Of course!

This is basically a watch list of 32 intriguing prospects eligible for the 2024 NFL Draft. It just happens to be in a mock draft format. And if you don’t like the draft order, then blame Vegas, because I used the inverse order of the updated Super Bowl odds.

1. Arizona Cardinals: Caleb Williams, QB, USC

Although there are financial ramifications with Kyler Murray’s contract, the Cardinals won’t be passing on a quarterback if they are indeed picking No. 1 next April. Based on his 2022 tape, Williams is worth the top pick — NFL scouts believe he would have been the No. 1 selection this past draft, had he been eligible.

2. Arizona Cardinals (via HOU): Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State

Not only would Harrison have been the easy WR1 in the 2023 NFL Draft, but also he would have competed with Will Anderson Jr. to be the first non-quarterback selected. He has small-man athleticism in a big man’s frame and the detailed savvy you’d expect of Marvin Harrison’s kid.

3. Indianapolis Colts: Olu Fashanu, LT, Penn State

Fashanu was my OT1 and No. 5 overall prospect for the 2023 draft when he announced he would be returning to school for another season. His movement skills, natural power and blocking instincts are an awesome combination.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina

With 45 total touchdowns last season, Maye not only put himself on the NFL radar, but he also jumped near the top of the list. With his size, arm and athleticism, he has skills comparable to those of Justin Herbert.

5. Tennessee Titans: Dallas Turner, edge, Alabama

When scouting Anderson or other Alabama defenders, it was impossible to overlook No. 15 flying off the edge and making plays. Throw on the Texas A&M tape from last season and watch Turner go to work.

6. Washington Commanders: Quinn Ewers, QB, Texas

Only a redshirt sophomore (plus he skipped his senior year of high school), Ewers is still very young in several areas. But he has the top-shelf arm talent to make wow plays look routine. If the mental development catches up to his physical skills, Ewers will be an easy top-10 pick.

7. New England Patriots: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia

Bowers is among the one-percenters who are physically ready for the NFL after their freshman seasons. He’s a tad undersized for the position, but his athletic skill — especially with the ball in his hands — is outstanding.

8. Atlanta Falcons: Jared Verse, edge, Florida State

A projected first-round pick had he entered the 2023 NFL Draft, Verse enjoyed his first year in Tallahassee and decided to stay for another season. His play speed and NFL-quality hand usage make it tough for blockers to control him.

9. Los Angeles Rams: Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama

A tall, long corner who can run, McKinstry not only has a fun first name, but he also put strong play on his 2022 tape. He tied with Emmanuel Forbes — just selected No. 16 by Washington — for the SEC lead in passes defended (16) last season.

10. Pittsburgh Steelers: Maason Smith, DL, LSU

LSU had high expectations for Smith last season until he suffered a knee injury in the season opener while celebrating a play. If Smith returns to full health this season, he will regain his first-round trajectory.

11. Chicago Bears (via CAR): J.T. Tuimoloau, edge, Ohio State

One of the top recruits in the country three years ago, Tuimoloau started to live up to the hype last season (watch the Penn State tape). He has intriguing physical abilities, and scouts are eager to see his technical development as a junior.

12. Seattle Seahawks: Donovan Jackson, G, Ohio State

Ohio State had three offensive linemen drafted this past weekend, but Jackson returns to Columbus with All-America potential. If he turns his flashes into more consistent high-level play, he has a chance to be a first-round pick.

13. Green Bay Packers: JC Latham, OT, Alabama

As the Tide’s starting right tackle, Latham consistently pitched shutouts in pass protection last season — he didn’t allow a sack in his first year as a starter. With improvements as a run blocker, he will earn starting-level grades from scouts.

14. Chicago Bears: Christian Mahogany, G, Boston College

Mahogany is another player returning from a knee injury, so scouts are eager to see him back on the field in 2023. He popped on the tape when I scouted Zion Johnson two years ago, and he will be trying to follow in his former teammate’s footsteps as a potential first-rounder.

15. Las Vegas Raiders: J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan

The fourth quarterback drafted in this mock, and you don’t need to squint to see the talent with McCarthy. He is a loose athlete for his size with NFL-level arm strength and the poise to make plays.

16. Denver Broncos: Kalen King, CB, Penn State

With teams staying away from Joey Porter Jr. last season, King saw plenty of action and was one of only three FBS players with 20-plus passes defended. Penn State still has never had a defensive back drafted in the first round, but King might be able to change that.

17. New York Giants: Chop Robinson, edge, Penn State

A Maryland transfer, Robinson established himself as one of the Big Ten’s more promising pass rushers last season. He needs to turn the flashes into more consistent play. Watch him against Michigan State or Auburn, though, and you can see the exciting potential.

18. Minnesota Vikings: Jer’Zhan Newton, DT, Illinois

At 6 feet 3 and 295 pounds, Newton is a quick upfield penetrator with athletic twitch and a relentless play style. If he can improve his snap anticipation, he should be even more productive as a fourth-year player in 2023.

19. New Orleans Saints: Malik Nabers, WR, LSU

I heard Nabers’ name multiple times at this year’s combine by 2023 draft prospects anointing him as the “next” big-time receiver to come from the SEC. He reached 1,000 yards receiving last season and played his best ball in the final few games.

20. Houston Texans (via CLE): Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame

In Alt and Blake Fisher, Notre Dame has a pair of offensive tackles to keep on the radar for next year’s draft class. Alt is a former high school tight end, and his father, John, was an offensive lineman and first-round pick of the Chiefs in 1984.

21. Jacksonville Jaguars: Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa

Iowa had a really good showing in the 2023 NFL Draft, and the cupboard isn’t bare. DeJean is an explosive athlete (watch his high school dunking highlights) and led the Hawkeyes last season with five interceptions.

22. Baltimore Ravens: Kris Jenkins, DT, Michigan

I gave Jenkins a second-round grade based on his 2022 tape. If he takes the next step in his development in 2023, the first round could be in range. He is quick off the ball to make plays versus the run and as a pass rusher.

23. Miami Dolphins: Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington

Penix was very up and down during his time at Indiana (2018-21), but he looked like a new player after transferring to Washington. His 2022 tape and production (35 total touchdowns) make you sit up in your seat. If he can build upon last year and stay healthy, Penix has a chance to keep rising into the first-round range, especially considering the firepower the Huskies return on offense.

24. Los Angeles Chargers: J.T. Sanders, TE, Texas

As he developed chemistry with Ewers, Sanders set a school single-season record for a tight end with 54 catches and announced himself as a legitimate pro prospect. His athletic traits have the attention of scouts.

25. Detroit Lions: Michael Hall Jr., DT, Ohio State

Injuries were an issue for him last season, but when on the field, he lived in the backfield. I’m expecting Hall’s speed-and-quickness testing numbers to be outstanding during the draft process.

26. Dallas Cowboys: Jeremiah Trotter Jr., LB, Clemson

I’m sure it would pain his father (former Eagles linebacker Jeremiah Trotter) to see his son with a star on his helmet. But it would also be a proud-parent moment if the younger Trotter can get into the first round.

27. New York Jets: Graham Barton, OT/G, Duke

Barton might not have elite length, but he moves well and consistently executes his assignments on film. He might be 2024’s version of Peter Skoronski.

28. Cincinnati Bengals: Emeka Egbuka, WR, Ohio State

Ohio State had a pair of first-round receivers (Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave) two years ago, and they might do it again next April. Harrison is a lock, and Egbuka has the athletic and nuanced skills that will appeal to pro teams.

29. San Francisco 49ers: Jordan Morgan, OT, Arizona

The first round might be a tad lofty for Morgan, who is coming off a late-season injury, but he is a balanced athlete with a promising tool set. Arizona hasn’t had an offensive player drafted in Round 1 since Trung Canidate in 2000.

30. Buffalo Bills: Laiatu Latu, edge, UCLA

Given his injury background, Latu’s medicals could be an issue when it comes to his draft grade. But on the field, he is a savvy rusher in the way he uses his hands and body rhythm to beat blockers.

31. Philadelphia Eagles: D.J. James, CB, Auburn

A former Oregon transfer, James was a pleasant surprise last season. He did a great job limiting big plays and will enter this season with an early-round projection.

32. Kansas City Chiefs: Tyler Nubin, S, Minnesota

Nubin would have been a Day 2 pick had he declared for the 2023 draft, but he elected to return to Minnesota for his senior year. With his athleticism and opportunistic ball skills, he has NFL starting ability.

 

 

[closetojumping 62565]

1 hour ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

Dane Brugler's 'Way Too Early' 2024 Mock Draft

https://theathletic.com/4477888/2023/05/02/nfl-mock-draft-2024-caleb-williams/?access_token=595014

6. Washington Commanders: Quinn Ewers, QB, Texas

Only a redshirt sophomore (plus he skipped his senior year of high school), Ewers is still very young in several areas. But he has the top-shelf arm talent to make wow plays look routine. If the mental development catches up to his physical skills, Ewers will be an easy top-10 pick.

 

24. Los Angeles Chargers: J.T. Sanders, TE, Texas

As he developed chemistry with Ewers, Sanders set a school single-season record for a tight end with 54 catches and announced himself as a legitimate pro prospect. His athletic traits have the attention of scouts.

 

  Hide contents

2024 NFL Mock Draft: Caleb Williams, Marvin Harrison Jr. lead next year’s class

Dane Brugler

May 2, 2023

64

Is it too early for a 2024 mock draft? Of course!

This is basically a watch list of 32 intriguing prospects eligible for the 2024 NFL Draft. It just happens to be in a mock draft format. And if you don’t like the draft order, then blame Vegas, because I used the inverse order of the updated Super Bowl odds.

1. Arizona Cardinals: Caleb Williams, QB, USC

Although there are financial ramifications with Kyler Murray’s contract, the Cardinals won’t be passing on a quarterback if they are indeed picking No. 1 next April. Based on his 2022 tape, Williams is worth the top pick — NFL scouts believe he would have been the No. 1 selection this past draft, had he been eligible.

2. Arizona Cardinals (via HOU): Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State

Not only would Harrison have been the easy WR1 in the 2023 NFL Draft, but also he would have competed with Will Anderson Jr. to be the first non-quarterback selected. He has small-man athleticism in a big man’s frame and the detailed savvy you’d expect of Marvin Harrison’s kid.

3. Indianapolis Colts: Olu Fashanu, LT, Penn State

Fashanu was my OT1 and No. 5 overall prospect for the 2023 draft when he announced he would be returning to school for another season. His movement skills, natural power and blocking instincts are an awesome combination.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina

With 45 total touchdowns last season, Maye not only put himself on the NFL radar, but he also jumped near the top of the list. With his size, arm and athleticism, he has skills comparable to those of Justin Herbert.

5. Tennessee Titans: Dallas Turner, edge, Alabama

When scouting Anderson or other Alabama defenders, it was impossible to overlook No. 15 flying off the edge and making plays. Throw on the Texas A&M tape from last season and watch Turner go to work.

6. Washington Commanders: Quinn Ewers, QB, Texas

Only a redshirt sophomore (plus he skipped his senior year of high school), Ewers is still very young in several areas. But he has the top-shelf arm talent to make wow plays look routine. If the mental development catches up to his physical skills, Ewers will be an easy top-10 pick.

7. New England Patriots: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia

Bowers is among the one-percenters who are physically ready for the NFL after their freshman seasons. He’s a tad undersized for the position, but his athletic skill — especially with the ball in his hands — is outstanding.

8. Atlanta Falcons: Jared Verse, edge, Florida State

A projected first-round pick had he entered the 2023 NFL Draft, Verse enjoyed his first year in Tallahassee and decided to stay for another season. His play speed and NFL-quality hand usage make it tough for blockers to control him.

9. Los Angeles Rams: Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama

A tall, long corner who can run, McKinstry not only has a fun first name, but he also put strong play on his 2022 tape. He tied with Emmanuel Forbes — just selected No. 16 by Washington — for the SEC lead in passes defended (16) last season.

10. Pittsburgh Steelers: Maason Smith, DL, LSU

LSU had high expectations for Smith last season until he suffered a knee injury in the season opener while celebrating a play. If Smith returns to full health this season, he will regain his first-round trajectory.

11. Chicago Bears (via CAR): J.T. Tuimoloau, edge, Ohio State

One of the top recruits in the country three years ago, Tuimoloau started to live up to the hype last season (watch the Penn State tape). He has intriguing physical abilities, and scouts are eager to see his technical development as a junior.

12. Seattle Seahawks: Donovan Jackson, G, Ohio State

Ohio State had three offensive linemen drafted this past weekend, but Jackson returns to Columbus with All-America potential. If he turns his flashes into more consistent high-level play, he has a chance to be a first-round pick.

13. Green Bay Packers: JC Latham, OT, Alabama

As the Tide’s starting right tackle, Latham consistently pitched shutouts in pass protection last season — he didn’t allow a sack in his first year as a starter. With improvements as a run blocker, he will earn starting-level grades from scouts.

14. Chicago Bears: Christian Mahogany, G, Boston College

Mahogany is another player returning from a knee injury, so scouts are eager to see him back on the field in 2023. He popped on the tape when I scouted Zion Johnson two years ago, and he will be trying to follow in his former teammate’s footsteps as a potential first-rounder.

15. Las Vegas Raiders: J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan

The fourth quarterback drafted in this mock, and you don’t need to squint to see the talent with McCarthy. He is a loose athlete for his size with NFL-level arm strength and the poise to make plays.

16. Denver Broncos: Kalen King, CB, Penn State

With teams staying away from Joey Porter Jr. last season, King saw plenty of action and was one of only three FBS players with 20-plus passes defended. Penn State still has never had a defensive back drafted in the first round, but King might be able to change that.

17. New York Giants: Chop Robinson, edge, Penn State

A Maryland transfer, Robinson established himself as one of the Big Ten’s more promising pass rushers last season. He needs to turn the flashes into more consistent play. Watch him against Michigan State or Auburn, though, and you can see the exciting potential.

18. Minnesota Vikings: Jer’Zhan Newton, DT, Illinois

At 6 feet 3 and 295 pounds, Newton is a quick upfield penetrator with athletic twitch and a relentless play style. If he can improve his snap anticipation, he should be even more productive as a fourth-year player in 2023.

19. New Orleans Saints: Malik Nabers, WR, LSU

I heard Nabers’ name multiple times at this year’s combine by 2023 draft prospects anointing him as the “next” big-time receiver to come from the SEC. He reached 1,000 yards receiving last season and played his best ball in the final few games.

20. Houston Texans (via CLE): Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame

In Alt and Blake Fisher, Notre Dame has a pair of offensive tackles to keep on the radar for next year’s draft class. Alt is a former high school tight end, and his father, John, was an offensive lineman and first-round pick of the Chiefs in 1984.

21. Jacksonville Jaguars: Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa

Iowa had a really good showing in the 2023 NFL Draft, and the cupboard isn’t bare. DeJean is an explosive athlete (watch his high school dunking highlights) and led the Hawkeyes last season with five interceptions.

22. Baltimore Ravens: Kris Jenkins, DT, Michigan

I gave Jenkins a second-round grade based on his 2022 tape. If he takes the next step in his development in 2023, the first round could be in range. He is quick off the ball to make plays versus the run and as a pass rusher.

23. Miami Dolphins: Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington

Penix was very up and down during his time at Indiana (2018-21), but he looked like a new player after transferring to Washington. His 2022 tape and production (35 total touchdowns) make you sit up in your seat. If he can build upon last year and stay healthy, Penix has a chance to keep rising into the first-round range, especially considering the firepower the Huskies return on offense.

24. Los Angeles Chargers: J.T. Sanders, TE, Texas

As he developed chemistry with Ewers, Sanders set a school single-season record for a tight end with 54 catches and announced himself as a legitimate pro prospect. His athletic traits have the attention of scouts.

25. Detroit Lions: Michael Hall Jr., DT, Ohio State

Injuries were an issue for him last season, but when on the field, he lived in the backfield. I’m expecting Hall’s speed-and-quickness testing numbers to be outstanding during the draft process.

26. Dallas Cowboys: Jeremiah Trotter Jr., LB, Clemson

I’m sure it would pain his father (former Eagles linebacker Jeremiah Trotter) to see his son with a star on his helmet. But it would also be a proud-parent moment if the younger Trotter can get into the first round.

27. New York Jets: Graham Barton, OT/G, Duke

Barton might not have elite length, but he moves well and consistently executes his assignments on film. He might be 2024’s version of Peter Skoronski.

28. Cincinnati Bengals: Emeka Egbuka, WR, Ohio State

Ohio State had a pair of first-round receivers (Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave) two years ago, and they might do it again next April. Harrison is a lock, and Egbuka has the athletic and nuanced skills that will appeal to pro teams.

29. San Francisco 49ers: Jordan Morgan, OT, Arizona

The first round might be a tad lofty for Morgan, who is coming off a late-season injury, but he is a balanced athlete with a promising tool set. Arizona hasn’t had an offensive player drafted in Round 1 since Trung Canidate in 2000.

30. Buffalo Bills: Laiatu Latu, edge, UCLA

Given his injury background, Latu’s medicals could be an issue when it comes to his draft grade. But on the field, he is a savvy rusher in the way he uses his hands and body rhythm to beat blockers.

31. Philadelphia Eagles: D.J. James, CB, Auburn

A former Oregon transfer, James was a pleasant surprise last season. He did a great job limiting big plays and will enter this season with an early-round projection.

32. Kansas City Chiefs: Tyler Nubin, S, Minnesota

Nubin would have been a Day 2 pick had he declared for the 2023 draft, but he elected to return to Minnesota for his senior year. With his athleticism and opportunistic ball skills, he has NFL starting ability.

 

 

Thanks for this stuff. It’s always fun to read, this far out. 

I won’t pretend to have watched all of Bama’s games last year, but I watched more than half. I also didn’t study film on those games or anything. Just a CFB fan here. That said, ATM is the only game I watched in which Dallas Turner showed up. He was often 1:1 with an offensive player and still did very little. Go watch his dumb ass against Texas or Tennessee. Yeah, he hurt Ewers on an after the whistle cheap shot, but other than heckling the crowd after the game, he was nonexistent. They made a fool of him in the Tennessee game. 

Anyway, I’m actively cheering against that piece of human shit in life in general. I’ll be applauding if he faces a career ending injury. Laughing harder and harder as others scream nearby that I’m a big meanie. 

[Texzilla58 4732]

It’s irrelevant whether the guarantee comes from salary or signing bonus. Guaranteed money is guaranteed money. 7th round players don’t get any guaranteed money past their signing bonus, so teams can still give UDFAs better contracts than a 7th round pick. 

If guarantee comes from salary you have to make the team if I read correctly. The signing bonus has no such requirement but it’s limited by the overall size of the general UDFA bonus pool. Every dollar goes agains the cap and is dead money if that don’t stick.

It’s weird how different teams use UDFAs and spend for them. Cowboys sign a lot and spend more on premium udfas than most, under the Jimmy idea of more picks equal more chances, others sign just enough to fill camp roster and spend little. And per that article it looks like the success rate for both is about the same.

[Burt Macklin 19020]

18 minutes ago, Texzilla58 said:

If guarantee comes from salary you have to make the team if I read correctly. The signing bonus has no such requirement but it’s limited by the overall size of the general UDFA bonus pool. Every dollar goes agains the cap and is dead money if that don’t stick.

It’s weird how different teams use UDFAs and spend for them. Cowboys sign a lot and spend more on premium udfas than most, under the Jimmy idea of more picks equal more chances, others sign just enough to fill camp roster and spend little. And per that article it looks like the success rate for both is about the same.

No. You're confusing the minimum roster salary with guaranteed money.  If it's actually guaranteed money, then there's no requirements, you are guaranteed to get it once the contract's signed, and teams can guarantee more than just the signing bonus. There's other things like roster bonuses if you're on the 53 at a certain time, but those aren't counted as guaranteed money. Teams can guarantee more money to UDFAs than what the 7th round contract slot will guarantee.

[TonyTexas 10508]

Texzilla seems like the type who refuses to surrender no matter how the odds are  against him. 

[closetojumping 62565]

Just now, TonyTexas said:

Texzilla seems like the type who refuses to surrender no matter how the odds are  against him. 

He's like the William B. Travis of this discussion, only instead of being armed with a single shot revolver, he's armed with incorrect assumptions and a poor understanding of contract law.

[BurntOrange&White 39930]

I feel like we have this 7th rounds vs UFA money argument every year.

[Had Enough 2078]

Anyway, I’m actively cheering against that piece of human shit in life in general. I’ll be applauding if he faces a career ending injury. Laughing harder and harder as others scream nearby that I’m a big meanie. 

I have no feelings toward Turner but as a general philosophy I’m perfectly fine with this stance. Particularly as it applies to Sooners.

[Vic Mackey 47012]

The NFLPA will not agree to additional draft rounds. Half the league is undrafted. UDFAs are a cheap date in the overall scheme of things and give a team better opportunities to find those diamonds in the rough. Cowboys are as good as any team in this area.

If only they were that good at finding talent after round 1 consistently.

[LTtxfan 49144]

 

🤘wrong thread

Edited May 7, 2023 by LTtxfan

[Rimbo 25911]

So Brett Kollmann did a "what RB to pick for your dynasty fantasy league" and the first eight minutes is all Texas players.