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Will America recover?


Michael Knight

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22 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

Keep working man.  You should be proud you bust your ass every day.  

And keep your eye out for opportunities.  They are out there.  

This country is great.  I know a Guatemalan guy who came here two years ago with nothing. Worked shit jobs but saved.  Bought a used truck and a pressure washer. He’s making a living running pressure washer crews from a humble beginning.  Started with just him.  Now he has three two man crews.  He’s making 6 figs net. 

I know had some legal issues. And that fucks you over. But you could do what this guy did.  And he barely speaks English.  

And all of this. This is still America.

Where a Kardashian can become a kajillionaire from sucking a dick, or a Guatemalan can start a pressure washing empire. 

All it takes is an idea and some work. 

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5 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

The flip side of this is that it's just as likely that someone in this country does all the right things and fails.

Luck has more to do with success and failure than any other metric. Most people simply can't accept that. 

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1 minute ago, SKJ said:

They're not going to cut jobs if their taxes go up. If they do, they're just not good at business.

A company that can't figure out how to invest in their own business will fail in their own right. But they'd probably blame taxes.

What CEO doesn't know how to compute NPV?

You are right. I’ll let them know the respective ~55 and 86 year businesses they’ve maintained are by luck.  

Jesus Christ I swear some of y’all are just trolling? 

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3 minutes ago, fattyflattie said:

And all of this. This is still America.

Where a Kardashian can become a kajillionaire from sucking a dick, or a Guatemalan can start a pressure washing empire. 

All it takes is an idea and some work. 

And luck. The single biggest predictor of success in America is who your parents are. 

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6 minutes ago, fattyflattie said:

You are right. I’ll let them know the respective ~55 and 86 year businesses they’ve maintained are by luck.  

Jesus Christ I swear some of y’all are just trolling? 

I think it's more that you're misrepresenting their positions. If their personal income tax goes up they're going to cut jobs?

If their corporate tax goes back they'll cut jobs?

What about interest rates? They're going to be raising soon, you think they'll be cutting jobs then, too?

Or maybe they'll just hire the amount of people to perform the work they have?

Edited by SKJ
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And luck. The single biggest predictor of success in America is who your parents are. 

This.

The lack of empathy and understanding on this thread...well, it’s perfect, actually.

Everyone on assistance of any sort is a welfare queen living high on the hog who made bad choices. And policy should be made based on that fact.

We’re some disconnected fuckers in this society. We don’t understand other people and their lives, nor are we interested in doing so. Poor people are poor because they’re stupid and lazy. Full stop. Why even bother to consider any other possibility? I mean, I know a formerly poor guy who is now well-off, so poor people have no excuse.
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On 6/10/2018 at 12:36 AM, bolverk said:

I think we can all agree that the era of American hegemony is now over. Sure, if we make the right choices, we'll recover to a large degree, but I'm pretty positive now that the EU will begin to strongly assert itself as a wary geopolitical ally with complicated cultural ties to the US. If Brexit does indeed actually happen, I see the EU standing up to the US much more forcefully.

It could be that we'll begin to turn increasingly toward Japan, South Korea, and the UK as our international stalwarts, but I think it's only a matter of time that east Asia falls under the sway of Chinese influence.

Russia will remain the wildcard but a streamlined EU (sans the Brits' view of their own exceptionalism) might actually be stronger in the future and could possibly keep Putin in check on their own.

All the above would lead to a multipolar world in which America's standing will be much weaker than it has been in the past. That doesn't necessarily mean the sky is falling, but it would certainly mean that American hegemony is dead.

 Thanks Trump.

The EU is fucked.  They're dragging shit loads of dead weight & debt with Italy, Spain, and Greece...not to mention the muslim invasion they've brought on themselves.  They're not taking any leadership position in this world or the next. 

China has a billion poeple...but also a ton of issues.  There's no doubt that China has the ambition.  And being communist means never having to say you're sorry.  We need to stand up to China or they will indeed control the region.  I see the 3d printing revolution making a huge impact on China...India and Mexico as well. 

I'm not sure anyone is ready for what 3d printing and other technologies are going to do to economies.      

 

Russia is no threat IMHO.  They're way behind in any and all technologies.  They have a dwindling population, with a 90% alcoholism rate and no motivation.  Thanks Communism!!! Bigger threat is their weapons systems (IE nukes) getting in the wrong hands.  "What you can't buy for money in Russia...you can buy for MORE money in Russia"  It's one of their favorite sayings.  

But the dumbest part of your post...and that's saying something...is that somehow this is Trump's fault.  

 

  

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Just now, David Dennison said:

And luck. The single biggest predictor of success in America is who your parents are. 

Yes. People with sense tend to pass that down. And dumbfucks pass on their dumbfuckery.  It isn’t really the wealth passed down that matters. It’s having good examples and demonstrating good habits and choices.

I get shit on here because my family is rich.  But I’ve been given nothing asset wise. Every asset I have I’ve earned.  M I’ve made a good amount because I had good examples and role models.  

If I had shit role models I’d have been shit too.  

The only way to fix this is to figure out how to stop poor, single women from breeding.

if I ever got seriously rich, I’d start a foundation that paid poor single women to have IUDs implanted.  

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2 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

Yes. People with sense tend to pass that down. And dumbfucks pass on their dumbfuckery.  It isn’t really the wealth passed down that matters. It’s having good examples and demonstrating good habits and choices.

I get shit on here because my family is rich.  But I’ve been given nothing asset wise. Every asset I have I’ve earned.  M I’ve made a good amount because I had good examples and role models.  

If I had shit role models I’d have been shit too.  

The only way to fix this is to figure out how to stop poor, single women from breeding.

if I ever got seriously rich, I’d start a foundation that paid poor single women to have IUDs implanted.  

You get shit on here for being an asshole.

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1 hour ago, Bullneck said:

Actually, things are going to get quite interesting with the new Republican tax code.  The deficit will get much larger because of a massive reduction of taxes on those who need it least.  Whether the Democrats are able regain control of Congress in time to fix things remains to be seen.

Running a government is a bit like driving a car.  All sorts of things happen.  Good things, bad things, unexpected things.  The Republicans have done everything they can at the behest of the lobbyists to whom they owe fealty to adopt as short-sighted and destructive policies they can in order keep those campaign contributions coming.  "Republicans say government doesn't work.  Then they get elected and prove it."

If you read the article on homelessness, why do you think some countries have low homelessness and others don't.  And by the way, I don't think that any human problem can be eradicated completely.  

Do you believe the level of taxing and spending that preceded the tax cuts was sustainable?

as far as homeless in other countries, I think they do a better job of dealing with mental illness and substance dependence, and have a more robust social safety net. All things I am for, but things that should be paid for by cuts in other areas rather than more borrowing. 

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9 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

Do you believe the level of taxing and spending that preceded the tax cuts was sustainable?

as far as homeless in other countries, I think they do a better job of dealing with mental illness and substance dependence, and have a more robust social safety net. All things I am for, but things that should be paid for by cuts in other areas rather than more borrowing. 

I would think this last cut/spend was one of the worst (as the projections look)...

The worst part about it is that the programs we're supporting are failing and the political will to go through most of our programs and overhaul them to be more efficient and  effective just isn't even there.

I believe government can do a great job with all these projects, but they need to be tended to, not just set them aside and keep throwing money at them

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57 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

And luck. The single biggest predictor of success in America is who your parents are. 

I view this the same way I view Johnny’s opinion, you’re somewhat wrong and somewhat right. There are shit parents with shit kids, great parents with shit kids, poor parents with rich kids and vice versa to all of those. A jump start makes everything easier but people still find their way out. They need role models whether it is parents, grandparents, neighbors, teachers, etc that take an interest in them and show them a different way. Everyone should volunteer or spend time with kids. It can be in church, clubs, sports, school, organizations, etc. but give your time and not always your dollars. If it helps one kid find their way then it was a success.

I came from nothing. My parents are alcoholics who didn’t do anything with their lives although both had successful parents. They got married in high school, didn’t graduate, and had me at 19. They were good parents in the sense they fed us, clothed us, and were home, but they sure didn’t set great examples. I had a 5th grade teacher at a school in the projects take me and several others under her wing and try to show us a way out over the next three years. I  got to high school, fucked off, became a drunk, and went down the hole to follow my parents. Ultimately another teacher made an impression on me, I met my now wife in 11th grade and decided to focus at that point. I pay more in taxes now than my parents ever made combined so it worked out. I have two sisters that both do well, a brother that finally seems to have a direction, and 2 worthless fuckup brothers I don’t talk to.

It all comes back to someone taking the time to make a difference. I give all the time I can now because I feel some responsibility for my two shit brothers. I didn’t have the time to spend with them while I was trying to get my own life set.

 

 

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18 minutes ago, SKJ said:

I would think this last cut/spend was one of the worst (as the projections look)...

The worst part about it is that the programs we're supporting are failing and the political will to go through most of our programs and overhaul them to be more efficient and  effective just isn't even there.

I believe government can do a great job with all these projects, but they need to be tended to, not just set them aside and keep throwing money at them

There was a lot of good in the tax reform. There was a lot of bad in the tax cuts. However, the bill itself did make a difference in code simplification and is the first time in my 20 years in the industry that there was any sort of overhaul/simplification. As usual though they didn’t leave we’ll enough alone and went too far with cuts. Some of those were last minute add ons to pacify groups though.

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5 hours ago, Brew said:

I view this the same way I view Johnny’s opinion, you’re somewhat wrong and somewhat right. There are shit parents with shit kids, great parents with shit kids, poor parents with rich kids and vice versa to all of those. A jump start makes everything easier but people still find their way out. They need role models whether it is parents, grandparents, neighbors, teachers, etc that take an interest in them and show them a different way. Everyone should volunteer or spend time with kids. It can be in church, clubs, sports, school, organizations, etc. but give your time and not always your dollars. If it helps one kid find their way then it was a success.

I came from nothing. My parents are alcoholics who didn’t do anything with their lives although both had successful parents. They got married in high school, didn’t graduate, and had me at 19. They were good parents in the sense they fed us, clothed us, and were home, but they sure didn’t set great examples. I had a 5th grade teacher at a school in the projects take me and several others under her wing and try to show us a way out over the next three years. I  got to high school, fucked off, became a drunk, and went down the hole to follow my parents. Ultimately another teacher made an impression on me, I met my now wife in 11th grade and decided to focus at that point. I pay more in taxes now than my parents ever made combined so it worked out. I have two sisters that both do well, a brother that finally seems to have a direction, and 2 worthless fuckup brothers I don’t talk to.

It all comes back to someone taking the time to make a difference. I give all the time I can now because I feel some responsibility for my two shit brothers. I didn’t have the time to spend with them while I was trying to get my own life set.

 

 

<David> But, but, but you have white privilege <Dennison>

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5 hours ago, Sawbonz said:

Do you believe the level of taxing and spending that preceded the tax cuts was sustainable?

as far as homeless in other countries, I think they do a better job of dealing with mental illness and substance dependence, and have a more robust social safety net. All things I am for, but things that should be paid for by cuts in other areas rather than more borrowing. 

From Forbes:

How much did the total deficit rise by each President since Reagan

Again using data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve, these are starting and ending federal debt numbers since President Reagan. I’ve computed the total percentage increase and the compounded yearly rate.

What the numbers show is that the total debt increased the most at 184% over 8 years and at the fastest rate under President Reagan at almost 14% per year. In fact, the three Republican presidents had the fastest growing debt on a yearly basis.

Reagan

  • Started Presidency: $965 billion
  • Ended Presidency: $2.74 trillion
  • Increased 184% or 13.9% per year

H.W. Bush

  • Started Presidency: $2.74 trillion
  • Ended Presidency: $4.23 trillion
  • Increased 54% or 11.5% per year (only in office for four years)

Clinton

  • Started Presidency: $4.23 trillion
  • Ended Presidency: $5.77 trillion
  • Increased 36% or 4.0% per year

W. Bush

  • Started Presidency: $5.77 trillion
  • Ended Presidency: $11.1 trillion
  • Increased 93% or 8.5% per year

Obama

  • Started Presidency: $11.1 trillion
  • Ended Presidency: $19.85 trillion
  • Increased 78% or 7.5% per year

President Obama’s debt actually grew at a slower annual rate than any of the Republican presidents even though there were events that negatively impacted the deficit that started before he became President. The Great Recession is probably the biggest of them as can be seen in the yearly deficit numbers. While all politicians use data to support their positions, the sound bite that the debt doubled under Obama is very misleading.

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7 hours ago, Johnny Sack said:

I pay for the food, medicine and schooling for 8 Haitian orphans.  Every month. Since 2003.  I think it’s now $400 a month. I could probably have swung a vacation house with the money I’ve spent down there between monthly donations, capital donations and travel  

I have over 1,000 pro bono hours with various low income people and entities.  Admittedly I’ve fallen off on that since I’ve had kids.  Weekends now are soccer and baseball plus several practices a week. But plan on doing more when I retire relatively young  

I got a nonviolent black drug offender who got dicked over by sentencing freed from a life without parole sentence.  I was a clerk for the federal judge who sentenced him.  And it made us both sick.   Got his sentence commuted.  He will be home by Christmas.  I credit Obama for that  and hope Trump follows his lead  

I also give ten points to my small church. But that doesn’t count, right?

Wow, I'm impressed.  Really.  

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On 6/11/2018 at 12:22 PM, David Dennison said:

No, the numbers tell me that. Europe leads the United States in a whole host of economic and social metrics. America is good at collective nostalgia and pretending like we're the greatest country on earth, when in reality there are a lot of other countries with a better quality of life and just as many if not more economic opportunities.

I ran across this in my morning dive into the internets pool and I thought of the previous discussion tangent in this thread.  The below isn't necessarily directed specifically at DD, but his post quoted above is a succinct summary of the discussion point and included for reference:

Quote

...
"On paper" comparisons, often favor the European welfare states.

When it comes to making comparisons of this nature, however, it's always important to take a look at where people actually choose to live.

This has long been a useful tool in comparing US states, of course, and there's been a long trend of people moving from high-tax states in the US to low-tax ones. When choice exists, many people vote with their feet.

And while it's much more difficult and expensive to move from, say, Belgium to the United States than from California to Texas, the choices migrants make nevertheless can provide us with useful information. These moves tell us the demonstrated preferences of the migrants.

So, how many Western Europeans are moving to the United States, compared to migration in the opposite direction? A new report from the Pew Research Center titled "Origins and Destinations of the World's Migrants, 1990–2017," gives us some of the answers.1

According to Pew's helpful interactive map, Western Europeans move to the US in far greater numbers — both proportionally and in absolute terms — than Americans move to Western Europe.2
...

But if Americans are going to be lectured on how much more wonderful life outside the US is, these critics at least ought to be asked to comment on why it is that so many more Europeans are moving to the United States, compared to the other way around. 

More:  https://mises.org/wire/3-times-many-europeans-move-us-other-way-around

 

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40 minutes ago, bernorange said:

I ran across this in my morning dive into the internets pool and I thought of the previous discussion tangent in this thread.  The below isn't necessarily directed specifically at DD, but his post quoted above is a succinct summary of the discussion point and included for reference:

More:  https://mises.org/wire/3-times-many-europeans-move-us-other-way-around

 

It's harder to move the other way, at least if you're looking for benefits.  You have to be born into and/or vest into their welfare states. It's also much more difficult to get a job without an employment visa.

I believe Canada gets more Euros than us on a per capita basis too.

Also, Americans in need aren't movers. WVers begging for coal jobs should have told you. Poor Euros are way more likely to move for job opportunities.

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9 hours ago, David Dennison said:

And luck. The single biggest predictor of success in America is who your parents are. 

Yep, meaning you're lucky if you have parents who value education and kick your ass till you absorb that reality.  Other than that, only race plays a luck part in America.

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3 hours ago, Bullneck said:

From Forbes:

How much did the total deficit rise by each President since Reagan

Again using data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve, these are starting and ending federal debt numbers since President Reagan. I’ve computed the total percentage increase and the compounded yearly rate.

What the numbers show is that the total debt increased the most at 184% over 8 years and at the fastest rate under President Reagan at almost 14% per year. In fact, the three Republican presidents had the fastest growing debt on a yearly basis.

Reagan

  • Started Presidency: $965 billion
  • Ended Presidency: $2.74 trillion
  • Increased 184% or 13.9% per year

H.W. Bush

  • Started Presidency: $2.74 trillion
  • Ended Presidency: $4.23 trillion
  • Increased 54% or 11.5% per year (only in office for four years)

Clinton

  • Started Presidency: $4.23 trillion
  • Ended Presidency: $5.77 trillion
  • Increased 36% or 4.0% per year

W. Bush

  • Started Presidency: $5.77 trillion
  • Ended Presidency: $11.1 trillion
  • Increased 93% or 8.5% per year

Obama

  • Started Presidency: $11.1 trillion
  • Ended Presidency: $19.85 trillion
  • Increased 78% or 7.5% per year

President Obama’s debt actually grew at a slower annual rate than any of the Republican presidents even though there were events that negatively impacted the deficit that started before he became President. The Great Recession is probably the biggest of them as can be seen in the yearly deficit numbers. While all politicians use data to support their positions, the sound bite that the debt doubled under Obama is very misleading.

I asked a simple question. Do you think the level of spending relative to taxation was sustainable prior to the latest tax bill?

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18 minutes ago, XR4ticlone said:

If America is destroyed by anything...it will be by our success.  

That and the destruction of the family structure, along with morality.  

Please don't be on any of the following code-wording bullshit:

"Morality" I hope isn't code for where you stick your cock.

"Family structure" I hope isn't code for gay marriage.

We can go through the revolutionary politics of the black panther movement and show actual proof to claims of the welfare system destroying family structure.

We can see the destruction of "urban" families through the prison industrial complex. (In many cases, rural family as well)

But we'll never be able to truly talk about the loss of morality and the depraved moral structure decimating the family structure until we discuss the divorce culture co-parenting model given to us by the overwhelmingly white majority of cheating douchebags that walk out on their family for some strange.

Edited by SKJ
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24 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

I asked a simple question. Do you think the level of spending relative to taxation was sustainable prior to the latest tax bill?

I would say it hasn't been sustainable for a long, long time.

I would also say that this is a legit 'both sides' claim.

I would like to ask you, why would it matter if it was sustainable before the latest tax bill? It is even more unsustainable after it.

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2 minutes ago, SKJ said:

I would say it hasn't been sustainable for a long, long time.

I would also say that this is a legit 'both sides' claim.

I would like to ask you, why would it matter if it was sustainable before the latest tax bill? It is even more unsustainable after it.

My point is it’s either sustainable or it’s not. Degree doesn’t ultimately matter if no one is interested in fixing the problem.  We’re headed off a cliff and congress won’t do anything, no matter who is in charge, until we reach the edge. It’s what they’ve always done. 

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Just now, Sawbonz said:

My point is it’s either sustainable or it’s not. Degree doesn’t ultimately matter if no one is interested in fixing the problem.  We’re headed off a cliff and congress won’t do anything, no matter who is in charge, until we reach the edge. It’s what they’ve always done. 

So, is your contention that we should basically have a tax holiday until Congress gets spending in order?

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34 minutes ago, XR4ticlone said:

If America is destroyed by anything...it will be by our success.  

That and the destruction of the family structure, along with morality.  

Didn't want to refute it? 

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8 minutes ago, SKJ said:

So, is your contention that we should basically have a tax holiday until Congress gets spending in order?

I doubt anyone would lend us more money if we did that. But I sure as hell would rather keep a higher percentage of what I earn if either way we are going to spend way more than we collect in revenue 

 

I also would rather we spend a higher percentage of our budget on the problems discussed in this thread, if we aren’t going to be fiscally responsible 

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13 minutes ago, SKJ said:

Please don't be on any of the following code-wording bullshit:

"Morality" I hope isn't code for where you stick your cock.

"Family structure" I hope isn't code for gay marriage.

We can go through the revolutionary politics of the black panther movement and show actual proof toclaims of the welfare system destroying family structure.

We can see the destruction of "urban" families through the prison industrial complex. (In many cases, rural family as well)

But we'll never be able to truly talk about the loss of morality and the depraved moral structure decimating the family structure until we discuss the divorce culture co-parenting model given to us by the overwhelmingly white majority of cheating douchebags that walk out on their family for some strange.

A.  I really don't care where you stick your cock...at least as an American.   Nor do I give a shit if you want to 'marry*' Steve.  

B.  The number of single parent families and the results children from those families achieve is remarkably unremarkable regardless of race, creed, or whatever.  But thanks to the left and Murphy Brown we're all told that it's not a big deal...as long as you don't look at poverty and incarceration statistics.  

C.  The prison industrial complex is a result of B...not the creation of it.  

D.  I won't disagree with that.  Once again a product of our spoiled, self centered, morality failures, and our success.  A nation told they deserve to be happy...without consideration for anyone else.  

 

*marriage is a religious institution dating beyond America's founding.  You can't really be in a gay marriage...it defies the entire purpose of marriage & it's originator.  But I could care less if you want to live in a gay civil union...and they'll call it whatever they want.  But let's not pretend that offense wasn't part of the reason civil union wasn't acceptable.  

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9 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Yes.

 

LOL.  Those aren't the data depicted in that chart.  

"Real average hourly earnings were unchanged, seasonally adjusted, from May 2017 to May 2018. Combined with a 0.3-percent increase in the average workweek, real average weekly earnings increased by 0.3 percent over this period."

"From May 2017 to May 2018, real average hourly earnings decreased 0.1 percent, seasonally adjusted. The decrease in real average hourly earnings combined with a 0.6-percent increase in the average workweek resulted in a 0.5-percent increase in real average weekly earnings over this period."

Also, I can't replicate that chart in FRED.  Here is the closest I get, using seasonally adjusted data.

FRED1.jpg

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7 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

I doubt anyone would lend us more money if we did that. But I sure as hell would rather keep a higher percentage of what I earn if either way we are going to spend way more than we collect in revenue 

 

 I also would rather we spend a higher percentage of our budget on the problems discussed in this thread, if we aren’t going to be fiscally responsible 

No one is lending us money now.  It's mainly the Fed printing money for the Tres Dept to 'borrow'. 

The only good news is about every country is broke as well.  But I've said for some time that's part of the plan...it puts us on the road to one world Gov or at a minimum one world currency...which means one world Gov within 5 years of that point. 

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2 minutes ago, XR4ticlone said:

A.  I really don't care where you stick your cock...at least as an American.   Nor do I give a shit if you want to 'marry*' Steve.  

B.  The number of single parent families and the results children from those families achieve is remarkably unremarkable regardless of race, creed, or whatever.  But thanks to the left and Murphy Brown we're all told that it's not a big deal...as long as you don't look at poverty and incarceration statistics.  

C.  The prison industrial complex is a result of B...not the creation of it.  

D.  I won't disagree with that.  Once again a product of our spoiled, self centered, morality failures, and our success.  A nation told they deserve to be happy...without consideration for anyone else.  

 

*marriage is a religious institution dating beyond America's founding.  You can't really be in a gay marriage...it defies the entire purpose of marriage & it's originator.  But I could care less if you want to live in a gay civil union...and they'll call it whatever they want.  But let's not pretend that offense wasn't part of the reason civil union wasn't acceptable.  

The prison industrial complex is a result of our very fine government, especially the tough on crime, war on drugs policies.

The higher incarceration rate is a result of both policy, and shitty people creating the fucked up family structure.

Murphy Brown is a fucking red herring.

Sex education policy (one again, a conservative flaw) has more to do with it than Murphy Brown

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9 minutes ago, XR4ticlone said:

No one is lending us money now.  It's mainly the Fed printing money for the Tres Dept to 'borrow'. 

The only good news is about every country is broke as well.  But I've said for some time that's part of the plan...it puts us on the road to one world Gov or at a minimum one world currency...which means one world Gov within 5 years of that point. 

That fucking bilderberg group and their damn trilateral commission

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