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Game Week- Iowa State

Wulaw Horn

By Wulaw Horn
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Al_4_ISU

Al_4_ISU 12612

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You guys will win easily, but probably won’t be statistically gaudy. Our defense is really good. Our offense is atrocious at scoring points, but is really good at moving the ball up to the red zone and burning clock, so they actually give the defense time to rest despite doing absolutely nothing on the scoreboard.

Horns 17 Clones 3. This will be a boring game.

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Fud

Fud 9697

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Connelly 

Spoiler

FPI looks like it was right about Texas, by the way

Full disclosure: I have nothing to do with ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI). I have never seen under the hood nor have I asked to. It is the baby of ESPN's Stats & Information group, and in terms of game-to-game performance, it is excellent, ranking in the top 10 in average absolute error (the average points by which a projections system misses a game) at Prediction Tracker almost every season. My SP+ ratings, which came with me to ESPN a few years ago, perform similarly well, but they're both good -- that's why I reference both ratings frequently.

That said, I will treat this as a safe space and admit that, just as you likely did, I scoffed heartily when I saw that Steve Sarkisian and Texas were projected seventh in FPI this preseason. (To be fair, I scoffed equally at Tennessee's No. 10 preseason ranking in SP+, but at least the Volunteers went to a bowl last year.) I just could not create a string of logic to make sense of having the Longhorns that high. They did not have a stellar recent history to lean on -- they were 12-10 over the past two seasons, 5-7 in Sark's debut season -- and while their recruiting rankings are good, as Texas' always are, they weren't any better than those of a lot of teams they were projected to leapfrog.

Six weeks in, despite losing starting quarterback Quinn Ewers for most of four games, Texas is now fourth in FPI ... and fifth in SP+. The Horns lost by just one point to top-ranked Alabama, and their 37-34 overtime loss to Texas Tech -- in which they outgained the Red Raiders by 2.3 yards per play but saw Tech recover all three of the game's fumbles while converting a jaw-dropping six of eight fourth-down attempts -- was one of the most statistically unlikely results of the season. In four wins, meanwhile, the Horns have outscored opponents by an average of 45-13 and outgained them by an average of 7.3 yards per play to 4.1.

They have finished in the defensive SP+ top 40 just once in the past seven seasons, but they're currently 16th. They're seventh on offense despite basically getting only nine quarters out of Ewers thus far. They have ... well ... played exactly like the top-10 team FPI said they were all along. Mea culpa.

Mind you, they might still have a close-games problem. They've lost seven of nine one-score games under Sarkisian, which is certainly a lot more Scott Frost-like than preferable and which could flip the vibes back to negative awfully quickly. But so far, Texas has earned a lot more benefit of the doubt than I expected.

 

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Herpa Derpa

Herpa Derpa 6317

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17 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

You guys will win easily, but probably won’t be statistically gaudy. Our defense is really good. Our offense is atrocious at scoring points, but is really good at moving the ball up to the red zone and burning clock, so they actually give the defense time to rest despite doing absolutely nothing on the scoreboard.

Horns 17 Clones 3. This will be a boring game.

You may be in for rude awakening. This Texas team is not being held to less than 20 in DKR with QE under center.

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 34407

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1 hour ago, Al_4_ISU said:

You guys will win easily, but probably won’t be statistically gaudy. Our defense is really good. Our offense is atrocious at scoring points, but is really good at moving the ball up to the red zone and burning clock, so they actually give the defense time to rest despite doing absolutely nothing on the scoreboard.

Horns 17 Clones 3. This will be a boring game.

I would agree but it feels like one of those games where it should be so obviously low scoring that it ends up 34-20 for no reason whatsoever. Return TD there, bad turnover here, etc. 

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Fud

Fud 9697

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EPA (estimated points added) is a nice metric, although it's not opponent adjusted. But as we get deeper into conference play, it becomes more useful since shitty non-con gets more diluted. Looking at ISU's EPA, it appears that they have a terrible rushing attack

EPA Margin: 30

Offense: 88

Pass: 68

Run: 119

Defense: 8

Pass: 19

Run: 13

"But did they play against good rushing defenses?" you ask?

Here's the Run Defense EPA of their opponents 

Iowa: 65

Ohio: 100

Baylor: 24

Kansas: 106

Kansas State: 76

Considering how inept ISU's rushing attack has apparently been, those Run Defense EPAs are likely getting a bit of a boost from playing ISU, too

Only Northwestern, Michigan State, and Iowa have worse rushing EPAs in the P5

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Make em eat Taco Bell

Make em eat Taco Bell 1549

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learn me on something.   For upcoming games, why isnt' the broadcasting network or the kickoff time known well in advance?  I'm guessing the time is determined by the network, so then why isn't the network known? For example, the 10/22 game vs. OK State - will it be ESPN, FS1, FOX, ABC??  Shouldn't the networks have their crews ready far in advance to travel, equipment and other logistics, not to mention their other regularly scheduled programming.  It's very strange, as if we're still in the 1970s, so disorganized. 

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MotownHorn

MotownHorn 1883

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10 minutes ago, Make em eat Taco Bell said:

learn me on something.   For upcoming games, why isnt' the broadcasting network or the kickoff time known well in advance?  I'm guessing the time is determined by the network, so then why isn't the network known? For example, the 10/22 game vs. OK State - will it be ESPN, FS1, FOX, ABC??  Shouldn't the networks have their crews ready far in advance to travel, equipment and other logistics, not to mention their other regularly scheduled programming.  It's very strange, as if we're still in the 1970s, so disorganized. 

I think they announce the game times today unless it gets picked for a 6 day window 

My guess is you don’t want to schedule too early because then you’d end up in a situation where shitty OU, who everyone thought might be good before the season, was getting all the prime TV spots while Kansas and TCU, who are actually good, got bad spots 

Its basically TV letting the season play out before they schedule so the TV partners paying the biggest bucks get the best games 

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Al_4_ISU

Al_4_ISU 12612

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I would agree but it feels like one of those games where it should be so obviously low scoring that it ends up 34-20 for no reason whatsoever. Return TD there, bad turnover here, etc. 

The only way we generate any points is if you guys do something absurdly dumb and create a defensive or ST score
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Hurtlocker

Hurtlocker 2219

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21 hours ago, LTtxfan said:

Cross-post...

Defense travels.  Cyclones did give up 31pts to Baylor.  But Kansas only scored 14pts and K-State scored 10pts on Cyclones defense.

Klieman said that Cyclones rush defense is one of the best in CFB this year.  

Regular Season
DATE OPPONENT RESULT        
Sat, 9/3
vsSEMOSEMO
W42-10        
Sat, 9/10
@IOWAIOWA
W10-7        
Sat, 9/17
vsOHIOOHIO
W43-10        
Sat, 9/24
vsBAY17 BAY
L31-24        
Sat, 10/1
@KUKU
L14-11        
Sat, 10/8
vsKSU20 KSU
L10-9

Only allowed 24 in two games, but only scored 20

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Tex48

Tex48 852

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29 minutes ago, MotownHorn said:

I think they announce the game times today unless it gets picked for a 6 day window 

My guess is you don’t want to schedule too early because then you’d end up in a situation where shitty OU, who everyone thought might be good before the season, was getting all the prime TV spots while Kansas and TCU, who are actually good, got bad spots 

Its basically TV letting the season play out before they schedule so the TV partners paying the biggest bucks get the best games 

I think this is one of the few things the media does right for college football vs the NFL. It allows the best match ups to be primetime. 

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Fud

Fud 9697

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ISU has done a decent job of holding opponents below their average yards per play, except for Kansas State

Iowa: season 4.1, vs ISU 2.9

Ohio: 6.5, 3.8

Baylor: 6.2, 5.3

Kansas: 7.4, 4.6

Kansas State: 6.1, 6.7

Kansas State averaged 6.7 yards per play, only turned the ball over once, only had three penalties for 25 yards, and still only scored 10 points. I guess that's the bend but don't break "flyover defense" working. 

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hookemATL

hookemATL 12228

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48-13

Bijan feasts for his highest yardage game of the year and 2 TDs. Worthy goes off (receiving TD and punt return score) and JWhitt is rewarded for his hard work with a TD. 

Matt Campbell has a sideline blowup over a terrible call, and a ISU starter is ejected for targeting. 

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MotownHorn

MotownHorn 1883

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3 minutes ago, Tex48 said:

I think this is one of the few things the media does right for college football vs the NFL. It allows the best match ups to be primetime. 

Yeah I don't disagree. Not super pumped about Chiefs/Raiders tonight. Or especially Bears/Commanders on Thursday. Yuck.

41 minutes ago, South Austin said:

I’m feeling a 38-17 38-3 type Texas win.

FTFY

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MirrOlure

MirrOlure 15185

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20 minutes ago, Tex48 said:

I think this is one of the few things the media does right for college football vs the NFL. It allows the best match ups to be primetime. 

True.....but the only thing people don't seem to grasp, is that statistically, week in and week out, 11:00 AM Central is the "primetime" for the highest number of viewers.

I'll be very surprised if UT @ OSU isn't at 11:00.  

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Al_4_ISU

Al_4_ISU 12612

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[mention=1238]Al_4_ISU[/mention] any starters expected to be out for our game?  I'm curious to see how this game goes because we should have two mismatches at TE for this game and the current QB has no problem feeding them both.

Staring RB, one of our starting Safeties (hasn’t played since Baylor), and starting MLB
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Rimbo

Rimbo 26853

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1 hour ago, Al_4_ISU said:


The only way we generate any points is if you guys do something absurdly dumb and create a defensive or ST score

Have you seen our linebackers and safeties? That's how Tech did us in; short, easy passes to the middle of the field, over and over again.

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Jiggy-Z

Jiggy-Z 3506

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I think I am too shell shocked by the Tech loss still, to get too confident about an easy Texas win here.

I could see a scenario where Texas allows the Cyclones to Tech their way down the field to some points and stymie the offense just enough to make it an interesting game, especially if we see a repeat of a cold offense in the 2nd half.

Iowa St. is a couple of plays from being a one loss team against better Big 12 competition than Texas has faced. 

Then there is the Iowa State loss last year.  Texas was able to put up points on everyone last year except Arkansas and Iowa St, so they know how to defend against a Sark offense. Texas has huge upgrades on offense since then and that game was one the road with Card at QB during the middle of our death spiral.

I also anticipate some bad calls as well.

I think Ewers, a healthy Worthy, and home field will be the difference, but I expect to be uneasy until the final gun sounds.

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Make em eat Taco Bell

Make em eat Taco Bell 1549

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2 hours ago, MotownHorn said:

I think they announce the game times today unless it gets picked for a 6 day window 

My guess is you don’t want to schedule too early because then you’d end up in a situation where shitty OU, who everyone thought might be good before the season, was getting all the prime TV spots while Kansas and TCU, who are actually good, got bad spots 

Its basically TV letting the season play out before they schedule so the TV partners paying the biggest bucks get the best games 

the time slot based on the importance of the matchup makes sense, but part (b) of the question - why isn't the network determined far in advance? Part (c) how is the network determined anyway -- last minute bidding war with the UT A.D. ? 

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hook me

hook me 2140

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UT got embarrassed by ISU last year (leading to the now famous video of Bo Davis ranting on the bus) & has lost 3 in a row. If we're overlooking this game then there's more wrong with this team than the trashing of OU could fix. We're healthy, we have a good defense, we have a great offense, we have an excellent OC, & we have good team leaders on both sides of the ball. This MAY be one that ISU keeps close in the first half, but we're covering 14.5 & I'm showing the spread at 16.5 now & I think we cover that. Sark showed no Herman turtling tendencies last week & I don't think he'll do that this week. The ISU offense sucks & if it weren't for 10 points against BU in the 4th quarter it'd look even worse on paper than it is in real life.

10 @ Iowa

11 @ KU

9 vs KSU

24 (10 in final 7 minutes) vs BU.

That's abysmal. Maybe their defense is good & I certainly expect them to trick Ewers a few times, but this is a 38-10 beat down type of game like it's supposed to be.

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gmr548

gmr548 16681

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I think I am too shell shocked by the Tech loss still, to get too confident about an easy Texas win here.
I could see a scenario where Texas allows the Cyclones to Tech their way down the field to some points and stymie the offense just enough to make it an interesting game, especially if we see a repeat of a cold offense in the 2nd half.
Iowa St. is a couple of plays from being a one loss team against better Big 12 competition than Texas has faced. 
Then there is the Iowa State loss last year.  Texas was able to put up points on everyone last year except Arkansas and Iowa St, so they know how to defend against a Sark offense. Texas has huge upgrades on offense since then and that game was one the road with Card at QB during the middle of our death spiral.
I also anticipate some bad calls as well.
I think Ewers, a healthy Worthy, and home field will be the difference, but I expect to be uneasy until the final gun sounds.

This. Texas should win. It’s hard to make a strong case for ISU winning without it just being mostly Texas faltering. But we’ve seen enough of the latter to still be weary. And this staff still failed the situational awareness/complimentary football test in its last competitive game.
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