Game Week Thread Game Week- Iowa State

[Codaxx 6214]

4 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Ewers is the man and I couldn't be more excited about it. 

Interested to see if ISU brings more defensive pressure in this game. Quinn was barely touched vs. OU and generally had a comfortable pocket. The one time they almost sacked him he almost threw a pick. We need to work out those kinks/issues before going on the road again. 

 

There are 2 ways to play Ewers. Try to confuse him or blitz the piss out of him. I am going to guess Heacock tries to confuse him with a lot of different coverage looks and false pre-snap reads. This will be a very good test of Ewers, above the shoulders. I could be over playing this, as I think Heacock is one of the better DCs in the country. 

[LTtxfan 49909]

2 minutes ago, Atticus said:

OU sent a fair amount of pressure, but we picked it up and Ewers did what he had to do to beat it. 

Was fun to watch Quinn go to work when Texas went with an empty backfield. 

Saw another post somewhere that said Quinn will throw some interceptions at times because he believes he can fit passes thru tight windows...

Spoiler

A lot of times... he can make those throws!!!  🤘

Gonna be interesting to see how many times Texas goes "empty backfield" against Cyclones.

[Rimbo 26853]

2 hours ago, Loop 1604 said:

What? We are playing in Austin next year. 

We're playing in the SEC next year, most likely.

Maybe.

Possibly.

Supposedly.

who the fuck knows

Edited October 11, 2022 by Rimbo

[Js1 86939]

2 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

We're playing in the SEC next year, most likely.

No we aren't

[ChickenNuggets 1661]

On 10/10/2022 at 7:49 AM, Al_4_ISU said:

You guys will win easily, but probably won’t be statistically gaudy. Our defense is really good. Our offense is atrocious at scoring points, but is really good at moving the ball up to the red zone and burning clock, so they actually give the defense time to rest despite doing absolutely nothing on the scoreboard.

Horns 17 Clones 3. This will be a boring game.

... you sir have no idea how much i intend to drink this weekend. boring? I think not.

[Rimbo 26853]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

No we aren't

well, hard to argue with that logic and reasoning 

[ChickenNuggets 1661]

2 hours ago, Shaggyhorn said:

I wouldn’t call crushing OU or ISU soul cleansing; it’s more of a nice colon cleanse.

 

[Burt Macklin 19211]

I'm having a hard time believing the composite of the advanced metrics have us at 4th overall when Hudson Card has taken the majority of the snaps for us, and I still have doubts about situational coaching on both offense and defense, which isn't very effectively factored into these advanced metrics. But if we're 4th overall at this point, you'd expect we'll only rise with Ewers playing from here on out. He'll obviously help the offense, but he'll help the defense too, since we're much less likely to go 3 and out for almost an entire half like we did against Tech. Tech quit respecting the pass in the second half and that led to them causing 3 3 and outs and a total of 6 of 7 drives without a TD in 2nd half and overtime.  Teams cant do that with Ewers, so it should help us put games away, which we've been abysmal at with Thompson and Card the last two years. 

 

Unadjusted EPA has us at 21st, which feels more like how we've played so far.  With that said, we've had a much tougher schedule than most teams ahead of us in EPA, and unadjusted EPA is not a predictive stat, whereas S&P+, FEI etc. are, so we should expect better results for the rest of the year, even if you didn't factor in a healthy Ewers, which is obviously a massive boost in its own right. 

 

If you look at opponent adjusted EPA, we're top 10, right around top 5.  I'm sure if you only took the plays where Ewers has played, we'd be easily top 5. So despite the frustrations of this season and being only 4-2 and 2-1 in the Big 12.

Tl;dr: When healthy, this is by far the best team Texas has had since 2010, we are a top 5 team in the country, and a clear favorite in the Big 12, which is a hard thing for me to accept after watching the last 12 years of UT football. 

 

 

Also, look at the SEC chart in the first tweet. They're in a 3 way tie for 9th in the SEC right now, and I'd say you would expect them to drop to 11th or 12th moving forward with all their QB injuries. 

 

 

 

[Dbeasy 15526]

I’m excited to see this next game. If ISU rolls out that freaking three man front, Texas is going to destroy them.

UnIike the previous three years, we have a good offensive line. So we shouldn’t be seeing three ISU defensive linemen plowing thru our five OL like in year’s past. And with a nice comfy pocket, Quinn will slice through that 8 man secondary like a surgeon. I say bring it on. 

[JFKFC 4965]

1 hour ago, Hookem2147 said:

I'll only allow it if while you are on the field you promise to ask Kelvin Banks if he is transferring to Bama this offseason like you predicted 10 months ago.

I was concerned that our o-line would stink and our team would stink and that we could lose multiple important freshman to transfer if we had another losing season. Even though our o-line as a whole is grading out poorly as expected, we are still performing better than expected as a team. Ewers is much better than I thought he would be at this point and some of the teams we have played are much worse than I expected. Still, I won't be completely free of those concerns until we beat a good (or better) team on the road and we get to 7 wins. If we win the next 2, I will be a believer. 

[Burt Macklin 19211]

Just now, Dbeasy said:

I’m excited to see this next game. If ISU rolls out that freaking three man front, Texas is going to destroy them.

UnIike the previous three years, we have a good offensive line. So we shouldn’t be seeing three ISU defensive linemen plowing thru our five OL like in year’s past. And with a nice comfy pocket, Quinn will slice through that 8 man secondary like a surgeon. I say bring it on. 

I hope you're right. We have a good pass blocking OL. We do not have a good run blocking OL, so we will have to pass early and often to avoid 3rd and longs into that 8 man drop.  This game is going to be all about Quinn. We will have to throw a lot to be effective, and there won't be a ton of easy, open throws against their D. Quinn will need to be patient and take what is there.  He's been a mixed bag in that regard, so this game will be telling of where he's at mentally. I think there's a good chance he rises to the occasion. 

The other thing to watch is how well we do scoring TDs.  Heacock's defenses give up raw yardage, but they almost always tighten up in the red zone and force field goals.  Once again, ISU's D is top 15 in the country in points per scoring opportunity. Our offense is top 10 in that category, so it will be an interesting mix of strength versus strength. The one thing I'll say is that Sark will need to stay creative with play calling in the RZ.  It seems like he tends to call inside runs a lot in critical downs and the RZ the last two years.  That won't work against ISU, so Sark needs to bring his A game play calling-wise. 

[Burt Macklin 19211]

8 minutes ago, JFKFC said:

 Even though our o-line as a whole is grading out poorly as expected, we are still performing better than expected as a team. Ewers is much better than I thought he would be at this point and some of the teams we have played are much worse than I expected. Still, I won't be completely free of those concerns until we beat a good (or better) team on the road and we get to 7 wins. If we win the next 2, I will be a believer. 

Nope.  Our OL is above average.  We're an elite pass blocking unit, and we're 50/131 in OL yards, which is a run blocking stat.  

[Codaxx 6214]

7 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

I hope you're right. We have a good pass blocking OL. We do not have a good run blocking OL, so we will have to pass early and often to avoid 3rd and longs into that 8 man drop.  This game is going to be all about Quinn. We will have to throw a lot to be effective, and there won't be a ton of easy, open throws against their D. Quinn will need to be patient and take what is there.  He's been a mixed bag in that regard, so this game will be telling of where he's at mentally. I think there's a good chance he rises to the occasion. 

The other thing to watch is how well we do scoring TDs.  Heacock's defenses give up raw yardage, but they almost always tighten up in the red zone and force field goals.  Once again, ISU's D is top 15 in the country in points per scoring opportunity. Our offense is top 10 in that category, so it will be an interesting mix of strength versus strength. The one thing I'll say is that Sark will need to stay creative with play calling in the RZ.  It seems like he tends to call inside runs a lot in critical downs and the RZ the last two years.  That won't work against ISU, so Sark needs to bring his A game play calling-wise. 

ISU has a legit run defense. The defense is very good. Bijan will likely struggle to run the ball early.  Texas could use a couple nice early drives to tire out the front

[Chili dog 1808]

I’m expecting a lot of passes to RBs early. 

[Dbeasy 15526]

3-8 yard routes all day long. 

[Rickylovesweed 15307]

I'm interested to see how the OL run blocking looks with Ewers. 

When you have a QB that can actually throw the ball it opens up the run game. The run blocking looked substantially better against OU but they do suck on defense. 

[Patricio Swayze 17058]

3-8 yard routes all day long. 

Or until Sanders or Whitt runs a wheel route for a 30 yard touchdown.

[HtownHorn 15243]

1 hour ago, Codaxx said:

There are 2 ways to play Ewers. Try to confuse him or blitz the piss out of him. I am going to guess Heacock tries to confuse him with a lot of different coverage looks and false pre-snap reads. This will be a very good test of Ewers, above the shoulders. I could be over playing this, as I think Heacock is one of the better DCs in the country. 

His pass defense is piss poor this year. KSU had 2 WRs go for over 100 yards against them. He may end up confusing his guys more than ours.

[Wally Pryor 5388]

Mark Jones and Robert Griffin III on the call for ABC.

Jones is 60 but is still trying to act like he's 30. Griffin is a good analyst if can survive him occasionally going off the rails. 

[gmr548 16681]

I’m excited to see this next game. If ISU rolls out that freaking three man front, Texas is going to destroy them.
UnIike the previous three years, we have a good offensive line. So we shouldn’t be seeing three ISU defensive linemen plowing thru our five OL like in year’s past. And with a nice comfy pocket, Quinn will slice through that 8 man secondary like a surgeon. I say bring it on. 

That 3 man front, drop 8 scheme is really perfect to play this Texas team. For one, it matches up well with what the Texas offense does and doesn’t do well, and it’s also well documented be a good matchup against Sark in general.

I have a hard time believing ISU can score enough to win outright, but expectations may be too high for Texas on offense. Of all the Ls from last year, the two where the offense just never really got it going were against these defenses, and that was a better run blocking OL.

[Codaxx 6214]

6 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

His pass defense is piss poor this year. KSU had 2 WRs go for over 100 yards against them. He may end up confusing his guys more than ours.

They are giving up 185.6 yards passing per game. 6 TDs and 4 ints. 2 100 yard WRs seems like a big deal, until you realize they gave up 10 pts in that game.  This is a classic missing the Forest for the trees comment. They are 14th in pts per drive allowed. 15th in available yards allowed. 22nd in yards per play. There is no way to look at those stats and say ISU's defense has a piss poor anything. 

Edited October 11, 2022 by Codaxx

[Fondren & Main 6871]

Who has the talent at TE that Texas has though?

[Gucci_Suit 2809]

Where is Bill in Sinton when you need him? No rat poison. Only preparing to mudhole fuckers.

ISU has a solid defense, but we have more skill (literally everywhere on offense) than they’ve seen. If they can get pressure up the middle thru Majors they might be able to disrupt Quinn, but Bijan, Ro, Whitt, X, JT, Keilan… that’s a lot of folks to try to keep an eye on. 

[JFKFC 4965]

53 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

Nope.  Our OL is above average.  We're an elite pass blocking unit, and we're 50/131 in OL yards, which is a run blocking stat.  

I saw posted PFF o-line rankings and they were far from great (especially run blocking) but that may have been pre-OU. OU may be skewing the stats ...but....it is what it is. It is entirely possible this o-line gels and we run block well on the road and beat good teams. I really hope this happens. I certainly didn't expect to be having this conversation with this even being a possibility. 

[HtownHorn 15243]

7 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

They are giving up 185.6 yards passing per game. 6 TDs and 4 ints. 2 100 yard WRs seems like a big deal, until you realize they gave up 10 pts in that game.  This is a classic missing the Forest for the trees comment. They are 14th in pts per drive allowed. 15th in available yards allowed. 22nd in yards per play. There is no way to look at those stats and say ISU's defense has a piss poor anything. 

Shapen threw for 238 yards, 3 TDs, and had a 188 QB rating.

Martinez threw for 246 yards, 1 TD, and had a 189.3 QB rating.

They did stop KU, good for them, the rest of their schedule has been dogshit.

 

[Patricio Swayze 17058]

Where is Bill in Sinton when you need him? No rat poison. Only preparing to mudhole fuckers.
ISU has a solid defense, but we have more skill (literally everywhere on offense) than they’ve seen. If they can get pressure up the middle thru Majors they might be able to disrupt Quinn, but Bijan, Ro, Whitt, X, JT, Keilan… that’s a lot of folks to try to keep an eye on. 

This is my thinking. Our offense just has too many weapons. Feeling good that Sark and Co. kind exploit a weakness with our personnel.

[LTtxfan 49909]

If Texas doesn't turn the ball over on Saturday, it's gonna be tough for Cyclones to win.  Texas defense has to be ready for a physical game up front.  Sure hope the Horns offense does a good job of sustaining drives so our defense is fresh in the 4th quarter.

Time for Texas to kick some Cyclone asses !!!

[Rimbo 26853]

1 hour ago, Dbeasy said:

I’m excited to see this next game. If ISU rolls out that freaking three man front, Texas is going to destroy them.

UnIike the previous three years, we have a good offensive line. So we shouldn’t be seeing three ISU defensive linemen plowing thru our five OL like in year’s past. And with a nice comfy pocket, Quinn will slice through that 8 man secondary like a surgeon. I say bring it on. 

three years? try twelve. or more.

[Codaxx 6214]

15 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

Shapen threw for 238 yards, 3 TDs, and had a 188 QB rating.

Martinez threw for 246 yards, 1 TD, and had a 189.3 QB rating.

They did stop KU, good for them, the rest of their schedule has been dogshit.

 

KSU- Averaged 28.7 pts.. scored 10..

Baylor averaged 37.4.. scored 31. 

Kansas averages- 39.8 pts.. scored 14

Iowa averaged 14.7- scored 7

Ohio averages 33.2 scored 10

not a single offense has scored their average vs ISU and only Baylor was close. I hope you are right Quinn lights them up, but nothing in those numbers says "piss poor".  I shoudl add FEI has them the 9th rated defense in the country. 

 

Edited October 11, 2022 by Codaxx

[Duane Moore 5636]

1 hour ago, Burt Macklin said:

Nope.  Our OL is above average.  We're an elite pass blocking unit, and we're 50/131 in OL yards, which is a run blocking stat.  

Paul Wadlington said we were 5/5 on conversions running the ball at 3 and 6 or less against OU. I thought we had looked a little better getting a push against WVU and it really paid off against OU. Hoping for continued improvement with ISU. 

[Rimbo 26853]

1 hour ago, Burt Macklin said:

Nope.  Our OL is above average.  We're an elite pass blocking unit, and we're 50/131 in OL yards, which is a run blocking stat.  

And we haven't been that good overall in over a decade.

I'll take it.

[Burt Macklin 19211]

Just now, Duane Moore said:

Paul Wadlington said we were 5/5 on conversions running the ball at 3 and 6 or less against OU. I thought we had looked a little better getting a push against WVU and it really paid off against OU. Hoping for continued improvement with ISU. 

I think that has more to do with OU's run D being one of the worst in the country. We'd need to see improved play against a better opponent before we can really call the OU game an improvement by our OL. 

[Duane Moore 5636]

2 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

I think that has more to do with OU's run D being one of the worst in the country. We'd need to see improved play against a better opponent before we can really call the OU game an improvement by our OL. 

That’s fair, and it’s why I’m really interested in seeing how our offense performs this week against the best defense left on our schedule. 

[UncleSonny 6790]

8 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

Iowa averaged 14.7- scored 7

 

Idk, giving up a TD to Iowa is pretty embarrassing 

[Codaxx 6214]

1 minute ago, UncleSonny said:

Idk, giving up a TD to Iowa is pretty embarrassing 

In their defense it was an 18 yard drive for a touchdown. 

[conVINCEd 21477]

12 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

KSU- Averaged 28.7 pts.. scored 10..

Baylor averaged 37.4.. scored 31. 

Kansas averages- 39.8 pts.. scored 14

Iowa averaged 14.7- scored 7

Ohio averages 33.2 scored 10

not a single offense has scored their average vs ISU and only Baylor was close. I hope you are right Quinn lights them up, but nothing in those numbers says "piss poor".  I shoudl add FEI has them the 9th rated defense in the country. 

 

At the time they played, Iowa’s qb had a qbr of 2.  2/156 or some such shit.  They haven’t faced a qb that is in the same stratosphere as QE.  They will be facing the best QB/RB/WR/TE on their schedule for the entire season.  May God have mercy on their souls.  Their 5 star culture is fucking around and they are going to find out on Saturday.  We’ll score as many points as we chose to.

[TrashMaster G 18030]

FPI win probabilities on all of our remaining games gives us a 1-in-4 chance of running the table. 🤔

[Codaxx 6214]

8 minutes ago, conVINCEd said:

At the time they played, Iowa’s qb had a qbr of 2.  2/156 or some such shit.  They haven’t faced a qb that is in the same stratosphere as QE.  They will be facing the best QB/RB/WR/TE on their schedule for the entire season.  May God have mercy on their souls.  Their 5 star culture is fucking around and they are going to find out on Saturday.  We’ll score as many points as we chose to.

That is true, but most defenses have not faced a QB as talented as Quinn. I am really interested in seeing how this game unfolds for the Texas offense. Heacock is very good. He will generally take something away from the opposing offense (force the offense to beat you left handed). Both KSU and Baylor are running teams and he took that away. I presume he will try to do the same vs Texas, but with Quinn at QB there is an argument to focus on the pass over the run. Seems crazy to say after watching last year. 

Edited October 11, 2022 by Codaxx

[Shaggyhorn 641]

I'm interested to see how the OL run blocking looks with Ewers. 
When you have a QB that can actually throw the ball it opens up the run game. The run blocking looked substantially better against OU but they do suck on defense. 

You beat me to it. Ewers passing ability may actually make our run blocking better. Unfortunately, we basically have no stats to use on that, yet. ULM, first game, throw it out. Alabama 1Q, second game vs. elite defense, throw it out. OU, terrible defense, throw it out. We’ll have a better sense of our run blocking over the next two games.

[conVINCEd 21477]

6 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

That is true, but most defenses have not faced a QB as talented as Quinn. I am really interested in seeing how this game unfolds for the Texas offense. Heacock is very good. He will generally take something away from the opposing offense (force the offense to beat you left handed). Both KSU and Baylor are running teams and he took that away. I presume he will try to do the same vs Texas, but with Quinn at QB there is an argument to focus on the pass over the run. Seems crazy to say after watching last year. 

This game, and the rest of the games on our schedule, are going to be about our defense.  If they play well enough to hold the other team under 30, we win.  Could we lose a shootout if we start trading touchdowns?  Sure.  If the main guys remain healthy, this offense is going to completely fuck up the rest of our schedule. Like historically fuck them up.

[jw4381 3241]

Can’t wait to see how Billingsley is going to fit in. 

[ztejas 44114]

There are multiple remaining games that I'm nervous about but this is not one of them. For starters - we have been really good at home despite missing arguably the most important player on our team. UTSA made us sweat due to some trick plays and self-inflicted gunshot wounds but then they got their doors blown off with Card running the show. And UTSA actually has a more dangerous offense than ISU.

WVU was never at any point in their game against us and there was that weird injury down the stretch that took the air out of DKR. With Quinn at QB that's a 30-40 point ass-beating. Do any of you really think that ISU is that much better than West Virginia? 

ISU might have a nice D but they aren't good enough to shut this offense down for 4 quarters. Meanwhile - our D is good enough to do that to ISU. It will take 3 or more Texas turnovers and a bunch of big plays from ISU on offense for them to win this game. Of course that's possible because this is college football - but it just isn't very likely. This is a very good Texas team with Quinn behind center (shit - it's a pretty good team with Card behind center) and a very meh ISU team.

[lemonandaturd 4289]

1968 Texas lost the second game of the season 31-22 to Texas Tech in Lubbock.  We ran the table and beat Tennessee 36-13 in the Cotton Bowl and had a 30-game winning streak.  Let's do this!

[GreenspointTexas 9933]

Im an idiot but it seems like every fucking run play, there are at least 1-2 defenders in the backfield that our RBs have to juke around before getting back to the LOS

[mvlonghorns 287]

I wonder what the role of Billingsly will be. So far this season we have really only thrown the ball to six guys: Worthy, Sanders, Whittington, Bijan, Roschon, and Keilan. No one else on the team has even 5 receptions. Is Billingsly good enough to take the ball out of the hands of any of those six?

[Rickylovesweed 15307]

15 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Im an idiot but it seems like every fucking run play, there are at least 1-2 defenders in the backfield that our RBs have to juke around before getting back to the LOS

This wasn't true in the OU game. 

[Cajun 11771]

3 hours ago, Rimbo said:

well, hard to argue with that logic and reasoning 

Because there was so much logic and reasoning in the post he was responding to?

[South Austin 53154]

1 minute ago, Rickylovesweed said:

This wasn't true in the OU game. 

OU sucks.

[DoubleQuarterPounder 230]

16 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Im an idiot but it seems like every fucking run play, there are at least 1-2 defenders in the backfield that our RBs have to juke around before getting back to the LOS

You’re not an idiot. We gave Bijan an awful run blocking unit in his last season here and what should’ve been a heisman campaign. Dude always has to turn nothing into something. The posters who try to act like our unit isn’t awful at run blocking are in denial. There’s always guys hitting bijan before the LOS

[Texasrocks 2246]

4 minutes ago, mvlonghorns said:

I wonder what the role of Billingsly will be. So far this season we have really only thrown the ball to six guys: Worthy, Sanders, Whittington, Bijan, Roschon, and Keilan. No one else on the team has even 5 receptions. Is Billingsly good enough to take the ball out of the hands of any of those six?

That's my question. I guess he's our tall receiver once we get in the red zone. We can have him and Sanders run for opposite corners of the end zone.