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Game Week- Iowa State

Wulaw Horn

By Wulaw Horn
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Burt Macklin

Burt Macklin 19,211

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, KeysPhoneWallet said:

Isu dink and dunk can be lethal vs PKs desire to play loose coverage. Their offensive line doesn’t have the bodies to match up against us but if we play off coverage they can neutralize our pass rush with the short passing game, eating us up with long drives. Ok needs to adjust to a plan that anticipates this, we’ll see….

On the other side, their defense has a good coordinator and they have developed their players in their scheme, that’s their biggest advantage. They can get to a bunch of different looks all from the same pre snap alignment which could challenge ewers. Whether their pass rush can get to us is another question, maybe on the inside, but I think our tackles will hold up and dominate the edges.

If their defense can make it an ugly game, then their dink and dunk style can produce long drives and cause this to be uncomfortably close. If our offense can blow the top on that defense, then this should be a blow out. Should be fun.


I thought this video was a good breakdown:
 

I’m not sure what ISU football you have watched, but there is nothing lethal about their offense. They don’t have the quarterback or WRs to execute long drives repeatedly. 

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KeysPhoneWallet

KeysPhoneWallet 807

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I don't think you are looking at this like you should.
Baylor, Kansas and Kansas State all shut down that offense by doing exactly what PK likes to do. If you force them repeatedly into 3rd and medium/long, they will fold. Iowa State does not have the horses at QB, WR, TE or RB to continually sustain long drives. Skill position wise, this is the 2nd worst offense we will face this season behind ULM.
 

This is my hope.
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KeysPhoneWallet

KeysPhoneWallet 807

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I’m not sure what ISU football you have watched, but there is nothing lethal about their offense. They don’t have the quarterback or WRs to execute long drives repeatedly. 

If we play 7 yards off coverage all day, then dinking and dunking is a problem. We’ve seen it many times with PK. I agree they don’t have the bodies to match up with us. I expect us to blow them out.
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Hookem2147

Hookem2147 21,930

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7 minutes ago, KeysPhoneWallet said:

If we play 7 yards off coverage all day, then dinking and dunking is a problem. We’ve seen it many times with PK.

Our inability to cover the middle of the field as little to do with how close or far we are playing off in coverage. Our 2 corners have honestly been playing as good as anybody in the conference. It's all about our LB's getting good depth when they are in pass coverage and our safeties being good in the middle of the field.

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Modessit

Modessit 5,665

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"ISU's defense!"

"Their defense averages..."

Come the fuck on. Their defensive average is based on playing a shitty Iowa, SE Missouri St, and Ohio. Throw in a bad QB performance by upstart Kansas and a shitty performance by KSU (who hasn't beaten anybody really - ou? - and lost to Tulane) and who have they played that could really test them on defense? Baylor - who scored 34 on them? The same Baylor that lost to WV last night?

Usually when everyone predicts a blowout it ends up a close game. And when they predict a close game or loss, it turns into a blowout win.

TL;dr- we gonna win big.



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Codaxx

Codaxx 6,214

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Posted
1 minute ago, Modessit said:

"ISU's defense!"

"Their defense averages..."

Come the fuck on. Their defensive average is based on playing a shitty Iowa, SE Missouri St, and Ohio. Throw in a bad QB performance by upstart Kansas and a shitty performance by KSU (who hasn't beaten anybody really - ou? - and lost to Tulane) and who have they played that could really test them on defense? Baylor - who scored 34 on them? The same Baylor that lost to WV last night?

Usually when everyone predicts a blowout it ends up a close game. And when they predict a close game or loss, it turns into a blowout win.

TL;dr- we gonna win big.


 

Basically when they played well it was, because they played a bad team or a solid offense had a bad game. It is always a pleasure to read unbiased opinions on Surly 

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Iguana

Iguana 229

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

Basically when they played well it was, because they played a bad team or a solid offense had a bad game. It is always a pleasure to read unbiased opinions on Surly 

I hope Modessit is correct. I also think Alabama has played against lots of bad defenses over the years. /sarc

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ztejas

ztejas 44,114

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29 minutes ago, KeysPhoneWallet said:


If we play 7 yards off coverage all day, then dinking and dunking is a problem. We’ve seen it many times with PK. I agree they don’t have the bodies to match up with us. I expect us to blow them out.

No it isn't a problem. Nothing about their offense is a problem. Against the three teams with a pulse defensively that ISU has played their QB has completed 62% of his passes for 5.4 Y/A with 2 TDs and 3 picks. He's welcome to throw shitty slant routes all day. That isn't a recipe for going on the road and beating Texas. 

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gmr548

gmr548 16,681

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Posted
"ISU's defense!"

"Their defense averages..."

Come the fuck on. Their defensive average is based on playing a shitty Iowa, SE Missouri St, and Ohio. Throw in a bad QB performance by upstart Kansas and a shitty performance by KSU (who hasn't beaten anybody really - ou? - and lost to Tulane) and who have they played that could really test them on defense? Baylor - who scored 34 on them? The same Baylor that lost to WV last night?

Usually when everyone predicts a blowout it ends up a close game. And when they predict a close game or loss, it turns into a blowout win.

TL;dr- we gonna win big.





I mean, you can make the exact same argument for the Texas offense. They’ve basically played one defense that isn’t deep fried ass.

ISU has played three conference opponents, and are one Baylor TD from having held each to their lowest scoring output in conference play to date, and did so for two of them by a large margin. Several TDs. Those were also the lowest outputs all year for those opponents.

It’s okay to admit that sometimes an opponent might be good at something. That doesn’t mean Texas can’t or shouldn’t win.
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Irieguy

Irieguy 1,059

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2 hours ago, Hookem2147 said:

Few team notes from IT:

  Reveal hidden contents

Those common themes would be focus, intensity, a good week of practice, and of course, revenge.

On Thursday, Steve Sarkisian touched on the revenge factor after beating only Texas Tech, TCU, and Kansas State in conference last year. He gave a typically good Sark answer.

“I felt like last season, we let a lot of games slip away. When you go through it that way, you can hear a lot of the negativity that comes with that. What’s wrong? Why can’t they finish? What happens in the second half? The players aren’t in good condition. The players aren’t strong enough. The coaches don’t make adjustments, right? They hear all that stuff. You have to find a way to flip that script and get it to where, what are we doing about it, how are we going about it, and what’s our mission? Inevitably, there’s a lot of these games we’re going back into the play these same teams. There’s gotta be a little bit of a sense of revenge, and not so much revenge on the opponent. Revenge on our own actions of how we performed in those moments in those games to ultimately go finish those ballgames.”

Steve Sarkisian

(He could probably swap the word ‘negativity’ with ‘observations’. The negativity was the result of negative outcomes, the observations just fell in line with the results. Common themes from last year appear to be a thing of the past and Sark and his staff deserve a ton of credit, as do the players.)

This team is definitely locked in. IT joked with a source about how good things are right now compared to seasons past. There’s no drama, no discussion of replacing coaches, no transfer talk. Things are so good right now even the players with NFL futures don’t care about anything but the season.

Sark has this team bought in. It might not be five-star culture yet, but four-and-a-half-star culture will work with this level of talent.

It was yet another good week of practice. Tuesday was described as being physical and intense. There weren’t a lot of ‘good on good’ plays but they were spirited.

Overall we’ve heard preparation for Iowa State has been good. “There’s a lot to prepare for with them, but the team is way more ready than last year. It’s a game where you have to communicate well and they’ve done that this year.”

On offense there’s a lot of confidence in the game plan despite having a ton of respect for Iowa State’s defense. It was belabored they need to do a good job on 1st and 2nd down to stay ahead of the sticks. But even though Iowa State floods the field with coverage Texas will still take shots when they’re presented. Adrian Martinez passed for 245 yards on them last week.

When you hear physical practice you have to feel a little sorry for the scout team. That got us wanting to check in to see which members of scout are giving the corresponding sides of the ball good looks. Names that were mentioned were Maalik Murphy, Jaden Alexis, and Gus Asel. “Murphy has made some big-time throws.” On defense we’ve heard about B.J. Allen and Larry Turner-Gooden. Ethan Burke has also made plays when on scout team.

We’ll finish with Jahleel Billingsley. The tight end’s NCAA suspension was lifted this past week and he resumed practicing with the ones and twos after previously being on scout team. It’s unknown how many snaps he’ll get on Saturday, but we do know there are plays designed to take advantage of his hybrid, athletic ability. This would probably be a good week for him to get targets, but we’re not sure how quickly Sark will get him back out on the field.

 

It’s about time that we got a Gus Asel update!!!

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 18,190

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1 hour ago, Hookem2147 said:

Our inability to cover the middle of the field as little to do with how close or far we are playing off in coverage. Our 2 corners have honestly been playing as good as anybody in the conference. It's all about our LB's getting good depth when they are in pass coverage and our safeties being good in the middle of the field.

Correct. Our linebackers got roasted against Tech. And our safeties are good enough at getting there in time to tackle and that seems to be about it. I think we may be getting better here, but definitely a work in progress. But if our offensive line continues to provide good protection, none of that should matter. 

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Modessit

Modessit 5,665

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Basically when they played well it was, because they played a bad team or a solid offense had a bad game. It is always a pleasure to read unbiased opinions on Surly 
The argument here is whether or not they "played well". I don't think they did. The other teams' performance were shitty or sub-par so a mediocre to okay performance was enough.

Do we really think aggy has a great defense because of how they played Alabama? Or did it just look decent because Bama played with their backup QB?
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Bevo14

Bevo14 8,468

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Modessit said:

Usually when everyone predicts a blowout it ends up a close game. And when they predict a close game or loss, it turns into a blowout win.

TL;dr- we gonna win big.


 

Hey I predicted a 49 point margin of victory last week and we know how that went.

Edited by Bevo14
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ztejas

ztejas 44,114

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Prediction contest I took us 41-16 but I think this could easily be something like 56-10. 

This is going to be an ass-whipping on a national stage. Get the CFP hype going.

If you're just praying for a win you need to reevaluate expectations. Anything less than double digits and I'll be pissed. 

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ousux

ousux 5,635

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Posted
projected final 12 standings:
here is the Texas breakout:
image.png.8f47dbdb07df24da843578f5cb8a80c8.png
basically 88% chance to win vs ISU, 64% vs OSU, 73% KSU, 78% TCU (shocking it's that high in his rankings), 86% Kansas, 78% Baylor
So basically we slice through the shit12 like a hot knife through butter..

And then get fucked out of a playoff spot due to a dirty hit from Bama that led to them winning a game they actually lost, and one shit game at sand aggy. Is that what the above means?
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Hook1997

Hook1997 5,486

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Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, ousux said:

So basically we slice through the shit12 like a hot knife through butter..

And then get fucked out of a playoff spot due to a dirty hit from Bama that led to them winning a game they actually lost, and one shit game at sand aggy. Is that what the above means?

Let’s finish playing for the Big 12 championship atleast and winning that game maybe before we complain about being left out the playoff….  I’d definitely be happy with winning the big 12 championship this year and winning it with the last ten years of suffering.   Then maybe playoffs next year.

Edited by Hook1997
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YGIFS

YGIFS 19,456

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This.  We've won 2 conference championships in the last 26 seasons.  Worst drought in Texas football history.  

Be nice just to make it to Arlington this year.  Path resumes today with kicking the outta Iowa State 41-10.  Tired of class over hardware.  Shit's getting old.

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Burt Macklin

Burt Macklin 19,211

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6 hours ago, ousux said:

So basically we slice through the shit12 like a hot knife through butter..

And then get fucked out of a playoff spot due to a dirty hit from Bama that led to them winning a game they actually lost, and one shit game at sand aggy. Is that what the above means?

You just looked at a chart that predicts our final W/L record as 8.7-3.3, and your interpretation of it is that we win out? Well, ok then. 

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YGIFS

YGIFS 19,456

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Well, as my spreadsheets always say, "Whole numbers may not be posted due to rounding" (checks notes 9-3 is still one more loss) DAMMIT!

Crazy to think we beat ISU and OSU, we're in the driver's seat for the Big 12 Championship game.  If not, it's 6 weeks of A&M "well if this and that happens, and you take the square root..."

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Surlian

Surlian 79

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Posted
6 hours ago, ousux said:

So basically we slice through the shit12 like a hot knife through butter..

And then get fucked out of a playoff spot due to a dirty hit from Bama that led to them winning a game they actually lost, and one shit game at sand aggy. Is that what the above means?

That's not how probabilities work, no 

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cochamps

cochamps 1,885

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On 10/14/2022 at 9:00 AM, Codaxx said:

That could be true, but there is that period on the scripts to the 3Q. Though I have not seen Sark's scripts do a ton of damage vs anyone that runs this defense well. I hope I am wrong and we dont see an ugly game. 

You were correct.  In spades.

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Hornbeliever

Hornbeliever 727

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Posted
1 minute ago, Codaxx said:

Hard to see what is going on here. Is this bust on Jamison? (Just guessing cover 3, 2 Longhorns cover the out. Just guessing, since you can’t see much of the secondary)

No bust.  Since we realized he caught every ball with a defender 2 yards away, we had to choose a different route.....stick a man really close on him or give him 10 yards to fuck with his timing.  We made the right call.

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