Texas MidTerm 2022 Early Voting Thread- Oct 24th-Nov.4th

[Voldemort86 2259]

49 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Target Smart has Texas at 2,959,356 at this point. In 2018, it was 3,565,109

Dems are up slightly from their 2018 numbers (39.8%, up from 39.2%)
GOP way down (45.8%, compared to 52.4%)
Unaffiliated way up (14.4%, compared to 8.3%)

Texas voters are weird people. I can see why there would be a big democrat drop off from 2018 in terms of overall votes because of the hatred for Trump is a huge motivator, but why the big gop drop off?

[Js1 85313]

9 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Texas voters are weird people. I can see why there would be a big democrat drop off from 2018 in terms of overall votes because of the hatred for Trump is a huge motivator, but why the big gop drop off?

Prob voting on Election Day, obvi. 

[YGIFS 19450]

I'm guessing it's a combo of they've had it beat into their heads that they're gonna win comfortably so no need for huge turnout.  This, despite being told in every fundraise piece and commercial, "Please support xyz gop candidate for abc because if you don't...Texas will continue to spiral into an eternal hellscape."  And then on top of that, there's no terribly inspiring Republican candidates top or middle of ballot.  McCaul (whom I admit I like), Roy, and Williams are all comfortably drawn in so there's nothing exciting there.  Even if you hate Democrats, Paxton, Patrick, and Abbott are not terribly invigorating.  Plus mail-in voting (which won't be counted for awhile) will likely see decreased numbers. 

And then there's the dirty little secret that will only account for maybe 50,000 fewer GOP votes...but that could enough to swing some tighter races...there's a handful of moderate, apathetic, but very educated voters on the right/centre-right who may think, "I'm starting to think Abbott may not be able to fix grocery price inflation and if crime is so bad...why are we blaming people who aren't even in office right now?  And maybe our underperforming schools aren't Collier's fault.  Meh, fuck it...lots rain this week...let's just sit this one out...I'm sure it'll all go to business as usual soon enough."  

[The Dog 44020]

1 hour ago, Ten Bears said:

At the Brushy Creek Community Center?  I saw no such thing there.

Yeah they were definitely there when we voted and the officials were trying to shoo them off. Good to hear if they are gone.

[MidTexHorn 822]

When I used to vote GOP, I actually rarely voted in the general election because there was just no point. All of the GOP guys were gonna win no matter what. I'm sure some of that thinking still persists even in these crazy days.

[DaysOff 7947]

Prob voting on Election Day, obvi. 

My pillow guy says only vote on election day. Because reasons.

[NIUHuskies 504]

Wife and I voted today at UTSA. Steady stream of 6 ppl in and out the whole time.

F Abbott. F Patrick. F LAHOOD

[WBT 20562]

52 minutes ago, MidTexHorn said:

When I used to vote GOP, I actually rarely voted in the general election because there was just no point. All of the GOP guys were gonna win no matter what. I'm sure some of that thinking still persists even in these crazy days.

Well, it's still true.  For statewide offices at least.

[UTGrad98 2271]

Voted yesterday.  No line. Was happy to see every race but one with a dem on the ticket. I also told everyone at work to vote early and just let me know if they were going to be late or need to leave early. Hopefully they will. 

[atomheartbevo 89654]

8 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Texas voters are weird people. I can see why there would be a big democrat drop off from 2018 in terms of overall votes because of the hatred for Trump is a huge motivator, but why the big gop drop off?

7 hours ago, MidTexHorn said:

When I used to vote GOP, I actually rarely voted in the general election because there was just no point. All of the GOP guys were gonna win no matter what. I'm sure some of that thinking still persists even in these crazy days.

It’s the same reason why football fans will leave in the third quarter when their team is up by three touchdowns, you don’t need to put the effort in if you think you know the outcome.

[gmr548 16576]

When I used to vote GOP, I actually rarely voted in the general election because there was just no point. All of the GOP guys were gonna win no matter what. I'm sure some of that thinking still persists even in these crazy days.

It definitely does. Prior to the 2018 election, most everyone would have said you’d be looking at Senator O’Rourke if you told them he’d get 4.XX million votes. But there are Republicans to bring off the sideline too.

[RabidM 2666]

So I saw this in Austin.  I assume the GOP is trying to psychologically soften their perception to liberal voters by putting their signs or names in Blue.  But it's weird as fuck to see Ken Paxton with a sign that looks like a Dem.  I assume they've done testing to show this will garner them a small vote gain. 

Edited November 2, 2022 by RabidM

[Texas Jeff 1945]

7 hours ago, RabidM said:

So I saw this in Austin.  I assume the GOP is trying to psychologically soften their perception to liberal voters by putting their signs or names in Blue.  But it's weird as fuck to see Ken Paxton with a sign that looks like a Dem.  I assume they've done testing to show this will garner them a small vote gain. 

Blue is a color associated with calmness and trustworthiness.  That's what those signs are selling.

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13511]

8 hours ago, RabidM said:

So I saw this in Austin.  I assume the GOP is trying to psychologically soften their perception to liberal voters by putting their signs or names in Blue.  But it's weird as fuck to see Ken Paxton with a sign that looks like a Dem.  I assume they've done testing to show this will garner them a small vote gain. 

The Harris County GOP county leader candidate. Mealer, is going with green signs as red is fairly toxic across Houston.

[StassneyHorn 6575]

What in the actual fuck is going on in El Paso? 13% turnout.

[StassneyHorn 6575]

Dallas, El Paso, Hidalgo and Cameron, you are on my list. Get off of it please

Bexar out performing and I think Uvalde is more of a factor than anything. Not buying the Hispanics leaving Democrats, especially in major cities where it hasn’t really shown, and not rural areas like the Valley.

[StassneyHorn 6575]

Encouraging info from largest counties- they are looking to finish strong as usual

Harris Co. with its second busiest day- 65,039

Dallas Co with its third busiest day- 33,244

Tarrant Co with its second busiest day- 33,125

Bexar Co with 29,761- dont know comparison, charts didnt make it easy

Travis Co with its second busiest day- 29,123

Top 8 counties have outvoted the rest of the state by claiming anywhere from 52.5% to 53.5% the last couple cycles, and has shown that same daily % for 2022. I've latched on to this trying to find something that sticks out but UT pulled the plug on Google Drive and I lost Google sheets. 

[atomheartbevo 89654]

Dallas…

 

[Guest]

https://www.texastribune.org/2022/10/28/texas-2022-election-turnout-tracker/

[Nice Guy Eddie 13511]

1 hour ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

https://www.texastribune.org/2022/10/28/texas-2022-election-turnout-tracker/

It's hard to know what story this tells other than fewer people are voting in '22 as opposed to '18.

• The 30 largest counties have grown their registered voters by 1.6m in those years.
• Whereas the other counties (220?) only grew by 264k.
• Also you have some very conservative counties in the top 30 so you can't treat them as a monolith

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

It's hard to know what story this tells other than fewer people are voting in '22 as opposed to '18.

• The 30 largest counties have grown their registered voters by 1.6m in those years.
• Whereas the other counties (220?) only grew by 264k.
• Also you have some very conservative counties in the top 30 so you can't treat them as a monolith

 

Guess it shows how much that orange guy motivates people to vote.

[C-Man 27217]

Larry David: "Keep the nuts out!"

https://secure.actblue.com/donate/jld-ld-c1?refcode=RIS_20221017_dlcc_fb_dd_us_it

[Nice Guy Eddie 13511]

38 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Guess it shows how much that orange guy motivates people to vote.

Midterm elections definitely can motivate the "other" side more than those in power. Many dems we itching to get to the ballot box to demonstrate their anti-Trump feelings.

The hatred / dislike of Cruz also shouldn't be discounted from '18. 

[Js1 85313]

Texas and Georgia are the only 2 states that are at 50%+ of 2018 turnout already.  

2018 turnout - 8.3 million
2022 turnout so far - 4.237 million as of yesterday

If there *truly* is an increase in in-person voting on Election Day, I am not concerned.  With both Dems and Republicans claiming they're more likely to vote on Election Day this cycle, we likely will see Texas approach that number of total votes. 

Quote

Taking into account both when and how voters intend to cast their ballots, the data suggest the following distribution of voting methods this year by people who plan to vote:

• 52% will vote in person on Election Day
• 16% will vote in person before Election Day
• 25% will vote by absentee ballot before Election Day
• 2% will vote by absentee ballot on Election Day, presumably by dropping it off at their precinct location
• 5% are unsure how they will vote

Edited November 3, 2022 by Js1

[StassneyHorn 6575]

Gotten 3-4 texts from different people yesterday and today telling my ass to go vote so that was nice they’ve tracked that history.

Have to say Harris County having the 10pm deadline today instead of tomorrow is weak. You got Thursday night football and World Series driving peoples attention away. Should saved for tomorrow.

[Biff Tannen 45676]

On 11/1/2022 at 12:26 PM, UTGrad98 said:

Voted yesterday.  No line. Was happy to see every race but one with a dem on the ticket. I also told everyone at work to vote early and just let me know if they were going to be late or need to leave early. Hopefully they will. 

Remind them again.  Tomorrow is the last day.

[Biff Tannen 45676]

2 hours ago, Js1 said:

With both Dems and Republicans claiming they're more likely to vote on Election Day this cycle

I still don't understand this mentality.  Yes, let me go stand in line forever to vote when I could have taken 10 minutes at any point in the past two weeks to do it.

[Js1 85313]

3 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

I still don't understand this mentality.  Yes, let me go stand in line forever to vote when I could have taken 10 minutes at any point in the past two weeks to do it.

Trying to understand people is a losing battle 

[washparkhorn 9939]

Keep it going Austin young voters!

 

[Biff Tannen 45676]

1 hour ago, washparkhorn said:

Keep it going Austin young voters!

 

I hope they realize the last day they can show up before election day is tomorrow.  Doesn't seem like they do, according to that tweet.

[washparkhorn 9939]

5 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

I hope they realize the last day they can show up before election day is tomorrow.  Doesn't seem like they do, according to that tweet.

 

[bolverk 29669]

11 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

Keep it going Austin young voters!

 

Interesting? Or not so interesting that it looked like 3/4 of students in line were young women.

[UTGrad98 2271]

I'm am prepared to be disappointed in both turnout and results. I'm already disappointed honestly. When only white males are allowed to vote I'll try and fight the good fight. Although by the time that happens they will have archived this reply and I'll most likely be out too. 

 

[StassneyHorn 6575]

The move today is asking a girl if she wants to go vote with you. And then you get all the super political stuff out of the way and watch results at your place and drink.

Do any of you even bang 20 year olds?

[atomheartbevo 89654]

1 hour ago, StassneyHorn said:

Do any of you even bang 20 year olds?

Even if I was single, I don’t think I’d be interested in banging somebody half, or less than half my age in the case of 20 year olds.  

I mean, I still got moves…

 

[Jambon 176]

4 hours ago, bolverk said:

Interesting? Or not so interesting that it looked like 3/4 of students in line were young women.

This is not surprising at all given what is at stake.  My son who is at UT voted last week and there was no line.  Glad to see that voting at UT is finishing strong.

[Voldemort86 2259]

4 hours ago, UTGrad98 said:

I'm am prepared to be disappointed in both turnout and results. I'm already disappointed honestly. When only white males are allowed to vote I'll try and fight the good fight. Although by the time that happens they will have archived this reply and I'll most likely be out too. 

 

My only hope at this point is that in politics lately things aren’t always what they seem.

In 2016, we expected a Clinton presidency and didn’t end up with one.

in 2018, we expected a big blue wave. Only got one in the house as senate and Gov results were disappointing.

in 2020, we were expecting a blue wave because of covid and only the race for president went well as millions of people split their tickets because they were afraid of extremely liberal house candidates in deep blue states with radical ideas.

I personally don’t see a red wave as a possibility, I think the worst outcome is a red ripple.

Edited November 4, 2022 by Voldemort86

[MeerkatBong 115]

1 hour ago, Voldemort86 said:

 

I personally don’t see a red wave as a possibility, I think the worst outcome is a red ripple.

I was reading today that even a "red ripple" (losing less seats than in the past) could still be disastrous because the margins of majority are much slimmer. edit to add link below. I bolded the part I was referencing.

 

Democrats across the country scrambled Thursday to bolster candidates in places President Biden carried safely in 2020, the latest sign of panic that they could face major losses in next week’s midterm elections.

Vice President Harris and former secretary of state Hillary Clinton held a joint rally in an effort to rescue New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D), who faces a close race in a state Republicans haven’t won in two decades. Biden traveled to New Mexico and Southern California to support vulnerable Democratic incumbents — bypassing Arizona and Nevada, where officials fear he could be a drag on senators in tight races. Biden and Harris plan to spend part of the weekend in Illinois, boosting House candidates in suburban districts that have been trending back toward Republicans since 2020.

As Republicans have focused on inflation and crime to go on offense in Democratic territory over the past month — competing in traditionally blue districts in California, Oregon, New York, Illinois and elsewhere — there’s a growing sense among Democrats that there’s little they can do at this point to combat the combined forces of history and economics.

“There’s a general malaise that’s hanging over the country,” said Joel Payne, a Democratic strategist. “What you’re seeing is an angry electorate that keeps kicking the people in charge out. They did it in 2016. They did it in 2018. They did it in 2020. And, if things hold to what it’s looking like, they’re probably going to do it again in 2022.”

While many Democrats have privately believed for months that Republicans were likely to take the House, they have expressed increasing fears in recent days that voters could hand the GOP a significant majority — an outcome that would amount to a major rebuke of the party in power. In some cases, the party appears to be conceding seats it previously competed for, a retrenchment that strategists worry could signal a “red wave” of widespread Republican victories on traditionally Democratic turf.

While the battle for control of the Senate remains closely contested — with both parties pouring millions of dollars into a handful of states that will determine whether Democrats maintain, or even add to, their slim majority — in the House the debate has shifted to predicting how large the new Republican majority will be. Democrats have 220 seats in the House now, and need 218 to maintain control.

One House Democratic strategist said that if Democrats hold 200 to 205 seats, they will consider it a good night. If the party ends up with 190 seats or less — a loss of 30 seats that would require several districts Biden carried by double-digits to flip — that would reflect a big red wave, said the strategist, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.

Biden allies are preparing to spin even a defeat as a win for the president, since President Barack Obama lost 63 seats in 2010 and President Donald Trump lost 40 in 2018, and Biden is not expected lose as many. But because Biden began his presidency with a much smaller majority than his predecessors, even modest losses could leave Democrats with fewer seats than the 193 they had in 2011.

The party has continued to express confidence about holding the Senate, where elections are historically less dependent on the national political environment than House races. Still, a number of competitive contests have tightened in recent days as Republican candidates have continuously linked their opponents to Biden, who faces stubbornly low approval ratings.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/03/democrats-midterm-election-fears/

Edited November 4, 2022 by MeerkatBong

[StassneyHorn 6575]

4 of the top 5 counties in Texas had their largest turnouts today. Austin missed being 5 of 5 by 150ish votes. With storms tomorrow I hope everybody continues to vote, unless youre Republican I hope you stay dry and sit it out. Cause you suck.

[Dnaguy 11947]

7 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

My only hope at this point is that in politics lately things aren’t always what they seem.

In 2016, we expected a Clinton presidency and didn’t end up with one.

in 2018, we expected a big blue wave. Only got one in the house as senate and Gov results were disappointing.

in 2020, we were expecting a blue wave because of covid and only the race for president went well as millions of people split their tickets because they were afraid of extremely liberal house candidates in deep blue states with radical ideas.

I personally don’t see a red wave as a possibility, I think the worst outcome is a red ripple.

 

I only works in one direction though.

The structure set up by state legislatures pretty much guarantees that it has to be a blue tsunami to get anything close to the same results as a typical red wave.

Republicans say the system is rigged. They’re right. 

Every accusation is an admission…

You know the drill.

[Gengs1 2583]

If the dems haven’t showed up now, might as well stick a fork into it, it’s done. Rs always show up to vote in person.

[horn4life 3760]

First off early voting for me was relatively painless, as I can go whenever I want.  I live in Austin. I also know that it is amazingly easy to vote in rural areas in comparison to urban areas.  Especially on election day.   So there is a built in advantage that they GOP tries to build on by trying to limit access in urban areas. (The laws may say they are for another reason, but that's the ultimate outcome, as well as the desired one).

 

On a brighter note.  It took nearly all my will power to not ask the 4 ladies who were manning the station if they new anyone who had a bunch of Gnomes in their yard, as I thanked them for volunteering.  But since it was only a few minutes after 7 am, I resisted.  Otherwise I was going to say, "Do you guys know anybody that has some Gnomes in their yard?"  No matter the response,  would have replied, "We should gather up some of these finger condoms and sprinkle them in their yard.  Make it look like the Gnomes has a wild party!"

7 am was just too early for such rapier wit.  Go out and vote, and try and save us from fascism, fact free and responsibility free public service the GOP is selling.

[CooterBrown 18006]

I don't understand anyone that wants to wait until election day. Who the fuck wants to wait in long lines? Seems like those are people that will stay home for any excuse. 

[Js1 85313]

6 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

I don't understand anyone that wants to wait until election day. Who the fuck wants to wait in long lines? Seems like those are people that will stay home for any excuse. 

I was discussing this with friends last night.

We all voted early, but I do also see the inherent "advantage" for millennials and Gen Z - we all hate our jobs, but our jobs have to let us go vote, so why not go blow off an hour or two waiting in line on Tuesday, not working, but getting paid.  I could watch a Netflix show on my phone while waiting in line and not be stuck in front of my computer doing work. 

Edited November 4, 2022 by Js1

[StassneyHorn 6575]

Top 7 counties, no longer 8, have outvoted the rest of the state by 37.5k.

afternoon update will jostle numbers a little bit.

[Js1 85313]

I was halfway surprised how crowded the Heights Houston early location was when I drove by at 7 last night. Seems people took advantage of people watching the WS/TNF to jump up and vote

[Biff Tannen 45676]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

I was discussing this with friends last night.

We all voted early, but I do also see the inherent "advantage" for millennials and Gen Z - we all hate our jobs, but our jobs have to let us go vote, so why not go blow off an hour or two waiting in line on Tuesday, not working, but getting paid.  I could watch a Netflix show on my phone while waiting in line and not be stuck in front of my computer doing work. 

Y'all could do the same thing at any time during the two week early voting period, no?  Or do your jobs only give you time off ON election day?  

[Js1 85313]

10 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Y'all could do the same thing at any time during the two week early voting period, no?  Or do your jobs only give you time off ON election day?  

You rarely have to wait hours during early voting lol. I was in and out in 25 minutes. 

[NameAlreadyInUse 5112]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

I was discussing this with friends last night.

We all voted early, but I do also see the inherent "advantage" for millennials and Gen Z - we all hate our jobs, but our jobs have to let us go vote, so why not go blow off an hour or two waiting in line on Tuesday, not working, but getting paid.  I could watch a Netflix show on my phone while waiting in line and not be stuck in front of my computer doing work. 

Well I voted on the weekend, my employer doesn't know.  I could still take up to 4 hours off on election day while skipping the line.  

[Nice Guy Eddie 13511]

We are on track to approach and maybe surpass 2018 total early votes.  Turnout % is obviously much lower this year.

2018 early total was ~5.6m votes.  This year, we're at 4.75m with 2 days to go. Yesterday was about 500K so 2022 could get close to the 2018 totals. A safe bet would be that we get close to 5.5m.