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Texas opens as a 1 point favorite @ Oklahoma State

TexasMan

By TexasMan
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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 34665

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5 minutes ago, Lhorn said:

That’s a pretty weird line.  Road game, feels like they should be 3-4 point favorites. 

 

2 minutes ago, Bigbend1812 said:

ryan reynolds hd GIF

Oklahoma State's pass defense has been very, very bad. If we play well then this time next week the set of fans who overreact wildly in every direction will once again declare that with Ewers we are the greatest ever. We could play exactly as "well" as we did this week and if Oklahoma State plays like normal relative to what we faced in Iowa State then we will score 40 points and Ewers will throw for 300+.

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 34665

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1 minute ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Vegas is hard to figure. We had no business being 16.5 favorites against Iowa State. We have no business being favored against Okie State. 
 

They nailed millions of suckers on the KU-OU line, so what the hell what they’ll do I know. 

Sagarin has us as 3.5 point favorites
Massey has us as about 1.75 point favorites
FPI has us as roughly 5-6 point favorites (not sure their HFA for this one)
SP+ will have us as about a 2 point favorite

Vegas is actually not that hard to figure out in terms of the lines they publish.

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ztejas

ztejas 44227

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3 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Sagarin has us as 3.5 point favorites
Massey has us as about 1.75 point favorites
FPI has us as roughly 5-6 point favorites (not sure their HFA for this one)
SP+ will have us as about a 2 point favorite

Vegas is actually not that hard to figure out in terms of the lines they publish.

He means it's hard for him to figure. 

Just now, VirginiaLonghorn said:

image.thumb.jpeg.ac3fe6c72df170e68ea8f64a3693b47d.jpeg

Vegas odds are not rat poison. 

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TexArcher

TexArcher 39074

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20 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

They nailed millions of suckers on the KU-OU line, so what the hell what they’ll do I know. 

Vegas lines are not predictions and the people who nailed the suckers on the KU-OU line were the people on the other side of those bets.

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BarthHollamew

BarthHollamew 252

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28 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Sagarin has us as 3.5 point favorites
Massey has us as about 1.75 point favorites
FPI has us as roughly 5-6 point favorites (not sure their HFA for this one)
SP+ will have us as about a 2 point favorite

Vegas is actually not that hard to figure out in terms of the lines they publish.

So, as long as we don’t miss a FG early in the game or squander a possession deep inside our opponent’s territory, we should be good.  Easy peasy. 

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TexArcher

TexArcher 39074

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1 minute ago, ztejas said:

This always gets parroted and I don't understand why. For a sport like college football lines absolutely serve as predictions. If Vegas fucks the line up they lose money. 

People see a line like Team A -7 and they say things like, "Wow, Vegas really likes Team A in this one."

No, they don't.  Vegas does not think Team A is going to win by 7 points.  Nor do they care.  What they do care about is getting the same amount of money on both sides of the line.  If they do, the losers pay the winners and Vegas keeps the juice -- risk free.  If they don't, Vegas is exposed to potential loss, which is why lines move once the money starts rolling in. 

The only thing a line is predictive of is how Vegas thinks bettors will respond to it.  Vegas does not predict games.

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ztejas

ztejas 44227

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Just now, TexArcher said:

People see a line like Team A -7 and they say things like, "Wow, Vegas really likes Team A in this one."

No, they don't.  Vegas does not think Team A is going to win by 7 points.  Nor do they care.  What they do care about is getting the same amount of money on both sides of the line.  If they do, the losers pay the winners and Vegas keeps the juice -- risk free.  If they don't, Vegas is exposed to potential loss, which is why lines move once the money starts rolling in. 

The only thing a line is predictive of is how Vegas thinks bettors will respond to it.  Vegas does not predict games.

We can go in circles all day on this. A lot o bettors are smart. Especially the ones that place a lot of money on games. If Vegas publishes a really bad "prediction" and a bunch of smart money jumps on it then they can get hosed. Also - money is rarely even on both sides of the line. That's a total myth. 

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Hookem2147

Hookem2147 22034

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This game does have some similarities to the 2020 game in Stillwater. OSU was undefeated heading into the game, we had been basically shredded by every offense with a pulse and our offense was coming off a meh performance the week before against Baylor. Despite all those favors, the line only opened at like OSU -3.5 and people hammered OSU thinking it was too good to be true. We won outright.

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TexArcher

TexArcher 39074

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Just now, ztejas said:

We can go in circles all day on this. A lot o bettors are smart. Especially the ones that place a lot of money on games. If Vegas publishes a really bad "prediction" and a bunch of smart money jumps on it then they can get hosed. Also - money is rarely even on both sides of the line. That's a total myth. 

Of course it's not going to be exactly even, but it's as even as they can get it.

And there's nothing to go in circles all day on.  I said Vegas is not in the prediction business.  And they're not.

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ztejas

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Just now, TexArcher said:

Of course it's not going to be exactly even, but it's as even as they can get it.

And there's nothing to go in circles all day on.  I said Vegas is not in the prediction business.  And they're not.

That may be true but Vegas lines still serve as pretty good predictions. Especially in the era of advanced stats/models that every bettor and their mom has access to. 

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52-80

52-80 19377

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5 minutes ago, ztejas said:

This always gets parroted and I don't understand why. For a sport like college football lines absolutely serve as predictions. If Vegas fucks the line up they lose money. 

Sportsbooks are in the business of taking bets, not making it. 

If they do their jobs properly, the lines should reflect the aggregate prediction of the bettors. 

Betting against it means you think you know something *everybody else* dont. And thats definitely not I. 
 

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Bobby Layne

Bobby Layne 279

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11 minutes ago, ztejas said:

We can go in circles all day on this. A lot o bettors are smart. Especially the ones that place a lot of money on games. If Vegas publishes a really bad "prediction" and a bunch of smart money jumps on it then they can get hosed. Also - money is rarely even on both sides of the line. That's a total myth. 

Dozens of games. Every week. House wins over time. Casinos don’t go broke. 

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ztejas

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2 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

Betting against it means you think you know something *everybody else* dont. And thats definitely not I. 
 

This is a good way of phrasing it. 

Just now, Bobby Layne said:

Dozens of games. Every week. House wins over time. Casinos don’t go broke. 

Okay? 

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 34665

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16 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

People see a line like Team A -7 and they say things like, "Wow, Vegas really likes Team A in this one."

No, they don't.  Vegas does not think Team A is going to win by 7 points.  Nor do they care.  What they do care about is getting the same amount of money on both sides of the line.  If they do, the losers pay the winners and Vegas keeps the juice -- risk free.  If they don't, Vegas is exposed to potential loss, which is why lines move once the money starts rolling in. 

The only thing a line is predictive of is how Vegas thinks bettors will respond to it.  Vegas does not predict games.

This is not really true. Books absolutely take positions on games. 

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52-80

52-80 19377

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14 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

People see a line like Team A -7 and they say things like, "Wow, Vegas really likes Team A in this one."

No, they don't.  Vegas does not think Team A is going to win by 7 points.  Nor do they care.  What they do care about is getting the same amount of money on both sides of the line.  If they do, the losers pay the winners and Vegas keeps the juice -- risk free.  If they don't, Vegas is exposed to potential loss, which is why lines move once the money starts rolling in. 

The only thing a line is predictive of is how Vegas thinks bettors will respond to it.  Vegas does not predict games.

We’re all saying the same thing. The lines are not strictly speaking a prediction, but they are one ipso facto, on the fact that the bets should converge towards a crowd-averaged prediction. 

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57 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Vegas is hard to figure. We had no business being 16.5 favorites against Iowa State. We have no business being favored against Okie State. 
 

They nailed millions of suckers on the KU-OU line, so what the hell what they’ll do I know. 

Vegas may be hard for people to figure but they’re right. I have a hard time believing we will be dogs in any remaining games since OU win. ISU line should’ve been 10 to 12. OSU feels right. 

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TexArcher

TexArcher 39074

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3 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

We’re all saying the same thing. The lines are not strictly speaking a prediction, but they are one ipso facto, on the fact that the bets should converge towards a crowd-averaged prediction. 

Right, and the opening line is their best guess on a starting point to get to that.

Another line you hear a lot is, after a 3-point favorite gets pounded by 21, "Boy, Vegas sure got that one wrong!"  No, Vegas probably came out just fine.

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Deej

Deej 77837

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49 minutes ago, DanTheHorn said:

I felt better about this game before the TCU loss. They always wilt in the big game now it is just a regular game. Like others I expected the standard -3 home advantage.

Texas is never a regular game for the other Big12 teams. 

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ztejas

ztejas 44227

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1 minute ago, TexArcher said:

Another line you hear a lot is, after a 3-point favorite gets pounded by 21, "Boy, Vegas sure got that one wrong!"  No, Vegas probably came out just fine.

This is a lot more complex than you're making it out to be. Vegas loses money on games all the fucking time. Whether they win or lose money has to do with where the money was. The money is never - or very rarely - 50/50. Vegas makes money on juice and being more right than the bettors. For every game they lose money on they may wind up on the right side of the money twice. 

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40 minutes ago, markstanco said:


This, and at a minimum. I bet it moves to 4 or 5 mid week. That place will be rocking.

You’re fooled by historical AP rankings. There is no way the line will shift to OSU -4 or -5. Come the fuck on. Texas is more like to move to -3. Y’all do realize that most computers have us ranked in the Top 5?

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EuroHorn

EuroHorn 3295

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5 minutes ago, Porterhouse said:

You’re fooled by historical AP rankings. There is no way the line will shift to OSU -4 or -5. Come the fuck on. Texas is more like to move to -3. Y’all do realize that most computers have us ranked in the Top 5?

Sounds like those computers are missing some chips due to global supply chain issues. 

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Rickylovesweed

Rickylovesweed 15516

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Oklahoma State is a difficult team to read because they've played such a soft schedule. They're played 1 team over .500 and lost that game. 

Their pass defense is awful so I expect them to sit in a soft zone and force Texas to methodically move down the field. This is a game where Bijan needs a lot of carries because there will be opportunities for 10 yards a pop. 

 

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Rickylovesweed

Rickylovesweed 15516

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For large portions of the TCU game Oklahoma State was in surrender cobra mode defensively. Their defensive staff knows they can't cover anybody. 

It's going to be interesting if they can be that conservative against Texas because Bijan and Roschon are a different challenge when you play in such a shell of a defense. 

 

 

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