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Texas opens as a 1 point favorite @ Oklahoma State

TexasMan

By TexasMan
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Rickylovesweed

Rickylovesweed 14155

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, ClubWhatever said:

Spencer Sanders is miles better than this Dekkers thing we played yesterday and overall they have better players around him.     Our strategy needs to be to keep it out of his hands or we will give up 50.  Counting on Ewers to keep up is not a winning strategy.  Run run run.  

They don't have a better WR than Hutchinson. 

This is the first time Oklahoma State doesn't have a truly game changing WR in about a decade. In all honesty, this is the worst skills group Oklahoma State has had in a long time. Richardson is a good back but not the type RBs they've had in years past. 

Now does this give me confidence with PK? Nope. 

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ztejas

ztejas 43265

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Rickylovesweed said:

Vegas has no confidence in Oklahoma State because 1) Sanders is banged up 2) They have one of the worst pass defenses in the country 3) They’ve played a very soft schedule. 

Lol. Vegas has plenty of confidence in the Pokes. If they didn't this wouldn't be a pickem. 

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Rickylovesweed

Rickylovesweed 14155

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, ztejas said:

Lol. Vegas has plenty of confidence in the Pokes. If they didn't this wouldn't be a pickem. 

I disagree with Sark’s performance on the road. People were also confused with the TCU and Oklahoma State line last week. 

Vegas has been fading Oklahoma State for a couple weeks now. 

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ztejas

ztejas 43265

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Rickylovesweed said:

I disagree with Sark’s performance on the road. People were also confused with the TCU and Oklahoma State line last week. 

Vegas has been fading Oklahoma State for a couple weeks now. 

I think we should start a separate board for posters that piss their pants whenever they realize we're playing a road game. 

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Hookem2147

Hookem2147 20932

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Rickylovesweed said:

For large portions of the TCU game Oklahoma State was in surrender cobra mode defensively. Their defensive staff knows they can't cover anybody. 

It's going to be interesting if they can be that conservative against Texas because Bijan and Roschon are a different challenge when you play in such a shell of a defense. 

 

 

The OSU defense is unique. They have a few really good edge players but other than that it’s a bunch of meh. Like you said, their secondary is suspect at best.

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Lhorn

Lhorn 4885

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, BarthHollamew said:

So, as long as we don’t miss a FG early in the game or squander a possession deep inside our opponent’s territory, we should be good.  Easy peasy. 

Would you say that they’re terrible and that we should win convincingly?

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Laxtonto

Laxtonto 11932

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Wally Pryor said:

Now -5 at Heritage.

Wow.

 

12 minutes ago, Rickylovesweed said:

Probably right but this is a fair question. I'm surprised it hasn't been discussed more. Sanders did not look right at the end of the TCU game. 

 

 

2 minutes ago, totallynotabuttpirate said:

Looks like TCU takes out another starting QB again... Thanks! 

This is a crazy move all the sudden…. I doubt that much money has come in on Texas the last 4 hours to jump from 2.5 to 5 and climbing unless they have news that Sanders is more hurt than he was last week and is a game time decision.

 

If he was out, I would expect them to try and pull it, but the major rise has got to be tied to something.

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Rickylovesweed

Rickylovesweed 14155

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

Sanders is more hurt than he was last week and is a game time decision.

 

 

Sanders is definitely banged up. Go watch the final possession of regulation in the TCU game. 

Sanders gets outside of the pocket and a DE runs him down. He couldn't move at all. I don't know what the injury was but Sanders had some type of lower body injury in addition to the shoulder problem. 

 

Edited by Rickylovesweed
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Rickylovesweed

Rickylovesweed 14155

Posted
Posted (edited)
26 minutes ago, totallynotabuttpirate said:

Looks like TCU takes out another starting QB again... Thanks! 

TCU is running on some incredible luck too. 

In the last 3 games they only had to play 1 half against Gabriel, 2nd string QB at Kansas, and a banged up Sanders that didn't practice all week. 

Edited by Rickylovesweed
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Hagbard Celine

Hagbard Celine 10761

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, ClubWhatever said:

Spencer Sanders is miles better than this Dekkers thing we played yesterday and overall they have better players around him.     Our strategy needs to be to keep it out of his hands or we will give up 50.  Counting on Ewers to keep up is not a winning strategy.  Run run run.  

run

the

fucking

ball

+++

at the game yesterday iSu people behind us were incredulous why we were still running with 2 minutes left in the first half, and even down to :40 before the necessary passes for 14-7 score

answer easy: you have the best run D in the conference; we can run the ball on you at will; until you stop it, why would we not burn down your best unit to give ourselves the best chance in the 4th?

absolutely did not compute for them

+++

keep our DBs off the field

run

the

fucking

ball

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Elmer_Fudd

Elmer_Fudd 22109

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Rickylovesweed said:

@Go Pokes what are your boards saying on Sanders?

I know he had the shoulder injury going into the TCU game but it also looked like he did something to his ankle at the end of the TCU game. 

I looked at two OK State message boards and didn't see any talk about injuries.  Both boards really don't have a lot of discussion though.

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Duane Moore

Duane Moore 5236

Posted
Posted
57 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

run

the

fucking

ball

+++

at the game yesterday iSu people behind us were incredulous why we were still running with 2 minutes left in the first half, and even down to :40 before the necessary passes for 14-7 score

answer easy: you have the best run D in the conference; we can run the ball on you at will; until you stop it, why would we not burn down your best unit to give ourselves the best chance in the 4th?

absolutely did not compute for them

+++

keep our DBs off the field

run

the

fucking

ball

Our running game has gotten sneakily effective the last three games. 

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Zeus

Zeus 5950

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Posted
3 hours ago, TexArcher said:

Right, and the opening line is their best guess on a starting point to get to that.

Another line you hear a lot is, after a 3-point favorite gets pounded by 21, "Boy, Vegas sure got that one wrong!"  No, Vegas probably came out just fine.

Correct 

CBS app has the percentages each way too it's pretty sweet to watch.

 

Screenshot_20221016-184614.png

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Irieguy

Irieguy 1059

Posted
Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, TexArcher said:

People see a line like Team A -7 and they say things like, "Wow, Vegas really likes Team A in this one."

No, they don't.  Vegas does not think Team A is going to win by 7 points.  Nor do they care.  What they do care about is getting the same amount of money on both sides of the line.  If they do, the losers pay the winners and Vegas keeps the juice -- risk free.  If they don't, Vegas is exposed to potential loss, which is why lines move once the money starts rolling in. 

The only thing a line is predictive of is how Vegas thinks bettors will respond to it.  Vegas does not predict games.

You are absolutely wrong. Vegas is not overly concerned with having balanced lines. Your local bookie is because he runs the risk of going broke. Big Vegas casinos are happy to have the majority of action on one side because they trust their lines.


Is it fact or fiction? I asked five longtime Las Vegas bookmakers about the assumption, and they all said it’s essentially fiction.

https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/sports-columns/todd-dewey/fact-or-fiction-do-sportsbooks-balance-bets-to-lock-in-profit-2538940/amp/

 @TexArcher

Edited by Irieguy
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ztejas

ztejas 43265

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Posted
5 minutes ago, Irieguy said:

You are absolutely wrong. Vegas is not overly concerned with having balanced lines. Your local bookie is because he runs the risk of going broke. Big Vegas casinos are happy to have the majority of action on one side because they trust their lines.


Is it fact or fiction? I asked five longtime Las Vegas bookmakers about the assumption, and they all said it’s essentially fiction.

https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/sports-columns/todd-dewey/fact-or-fiction-do-sportsbooks-balance-bets-to-lock-in-profit-2538940/amp/

 @TexArcher

Yeah. We know. He doesn't. 

Granted he probably doesn't trust me telling him that shit, he may trust your more for whatever reason. 

I mean I feel like I already tried to explain that. 

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TexArcher

TexArcher 37508

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Irieguy said:

You are absolutely wrong. Vegas is not overly concerned with having balanced lines. Your local bookie is because he runs the risk of going broke. Big Vegas casinos are happy to have the majority of action on one side because they trust their lines. @TexArcher

What does that even mean, they trust their lines?  As in, they're baiting people to put more on one side or the other?  If that were true, the line wouldn't immediately move the other direction.

What casinos want more than anything else is risk-free money.  See also, slot machines.  They get risk-free money at the sportsbook by having balanced lines, or as close to it as they can get.  If you think any casino is happy to have 75% of the action on one side of the betting because they feel like they got the point spread right, then you have no idea what you're talking about.

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Irieguy

Irieguy 1059

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, TexArcher said:

What does that even mean, they trust their lines?  As in, they're baiting people to put more on one side or the other?  If that were true, the line wouldn't immediately move the other direction.

What casinos want more than anything else is risk-free money.  See also, slot machines.  They get risk-free money at the sportsbook by having balanced lines, or as close to it as they can get.  If you think any casino is happy to have 75% of the action on one side of the betting because they feel like they got the point spread right, then you have no idea what you're talking about.

You can say what casinos want or I can quote actual casino sports books executives. The sports books often are so confident in their line that they don’t mind more money coming in. So even as the money comes in they don’t move the line. 

From Chris Andrews sports book expert, ““When it’s the latter, it’s because the book has decided to ‘take a position’ on a game based on what it thinks will happen. The book is still getting its -110 juice, but it’s also gambling a bit.”

 

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ztejas

ztejas 43265

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, TexArcher said:

What does that even mean, they trust their lines?  As in, they're baiting people to put more on one side or the other?  If that were true, the line wouldn't immediately move the other direction.

What casinos want more than anything else is risk-free money.  See also, slot machines.  They get risk-free money at the sportsbook by having balanced lines, or as close to it as they can get.  If you think any casino is happy to have 75% of the action on one side of the betting because they feel like they got the point spread right, then you have no idea what you're talking about.

Dude you don't understand how this works. 

I tried to be nice to you about it because I know you're a Chelsea guy but you're making an ass of yourself and you chose to double down. This isn't an environment where I'm going to keep babying somebody. 

You have no idea how this shit works and you need to quit acting like you do. Please stop. I like you.

 

 

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TrashMaster G

TrashMaster G 17388

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Duane Moore said:

Our running game has gotten sneakily effective the last three games. 

Our young O-line is figuring out how to run block.  They have been doing ok with pass blocking since the start of the season, but the RBs have been working without good holes to hit.

It's been improving steadily.

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TexArcher

TexArcher 37508

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, ztejas said:

Dude you don't understand how this works. 

I tried to be nice to you about it because I know you're a Chelsea guy but you're making an ass of yourself and you chose to double down. This isn't an environment where I'm going to keep babying somebody. 

You have no idea how this shit works and you need to quit acting like you do. Please stop. I like you.

 

 

A close friend of mine runs a sportsbook at a major casino.

I'll be sure to let him know that two guys on the internet think he's been doing it wrong for like 20 years.

Y'all have a good night anyway.

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Irieguy

Irieguy 1059

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

A close friend of mine runs a sportsbook at a major casino.

I'll be sure to let him know that two guys on the internet think he's been doing it wrong for like 20 years.

Y'all have a good night anyway.

I’ll believe South Point sports book director Chris Andrews who said exactly, “”I like to have some balance, but it’s not my primary goal,” Andrews said.

I’ll just assume that your friend gave you an oversimplified explanation. Or something got lost in translation. 

@TexArcher
 

Edited by Irieguy
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Rickylovesweed

Rickylovesweed 14155

Posted
Posted

We won't know anything about Sanders until gameday. 

Apparently, Sanders didn't practice last week and that wasn't reported until Saturday morning. What I can infer from a few tweets is that it was a shoulder and ankle injury going into the TCU game. 

So that makes sense with him hobbling around a bit at the end of the TCU game. 

 

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