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Texas opens as a 1 point favorite @ Oklahoma State

TexasMan

By TexasMan
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ztejas

ztejas 43265

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

A close friend of mine runs a sportsbook at a major casino.

I'll be sure to let him know that two guys on the internet think he's been doing it wrong for like 20 years.

Y'all have a good night anyway.

I mean, okay dude. There's no need to be a dick about it. You pretty clearly don't understand how books make their money. I could have a friend that's an NFL wideout - that doesn't mean I know how to break down a nickel coverage that spys the QB.

There's nothing wrong with admitting that you know a lot less than other posters here do about how Vegas makes its money.

This dumbass @Irieguy thought that it was impossible that any college player could be worth 11 points against a spread yet he's fucking schooling you like you've never seen a football game. 

Give it a rest chief. 

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Irieguy

Irieguy 1059

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2 minutes ago, ztejas said:

I mean, okay dude. There's no need to be a dick about it. You pretty clearly don't understand how books make their money. I could have a friend that's an NFL wideout - that doesn't mean I know how to break down a nickel coverage that spys the QB.

There's nothing wrong with admitting that you know a lot less than other posters here do about how Vegas makes its money.

This dumbass @Irieguy thought that it was impossible that any college player could be worth 11 points against a spread yet he's fucking schooling you like you've never seen a football game. 

Give it a rest chief. 

Ummm … thanks? 😂

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DanTheHorn

DanTheHorn 4901

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22 minutes ago, Irieguy said:

I’ll believe South Point sports book director Chris Andrews who said exactly, “”I like to have some balance, but it’s not my primary goal,” Andrews said.

I’ll just assume that your friend gave you an oversimplified explanation. Or something got lost in translation. 

@TexArcher
 

Ok I have never placed a bet in my life and know nothing but what I gather from the article below is that it does not matter if the favored team covers or the underdog covers it only matters if the popular bet hits or if the big money bets hit since that is how a sports book loses money. Do I understand it correctly?

https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/sports-columns/todd-dewey/bloodbath-for-sportsbooks-as-nfl-betting-favorites-dominate-2461879/

 

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40acredropout

40acredropout 2902

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1 minute ago, DanTheHorn said:

Ok I have never placed a bet in my life and know nothing but what I gather from the article below is that it does not matter if the favored team covers or the underdog covers it only matters if the popular bet hits or if the big money bets hit since that is how a sports book loses money. Do I understand it correctly?

https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/sports-columns/todd-dewey/bloodbath-for-sportsbooks-as-nfl-betting-favorites-dominate-2461879/

 

Ztejas can explain

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7 hours ago, EuroHorn said:

Sounds like those computers are missing some chips due to global supply chain issues. 

I don’t think they’re correct. But outside of UGA, tOSU and Michigan, there’s a giant group of parity between 4 and 20. We would be favored against most teams in those matchups. OSU is no exception. Computers know what they’re talking about. ISU score was deceiving. We should’ve won by 10-13 and they are no slouch. I expect 1-2 more losses but will be disappointed if it’s this weekend. We are young but have much more talent than anyone we have remaining.  Sark can’t let youth be an excuse anymore. He needs to finish very strong and knows we can win the Big 12. Having major turnarounds in the second year of a tenure is a huge sign you’ve got the right guy or conversely, if you don’t. Herman kind of did it but never followed up with OL recruiting and it fucked us considerably. All signs are that Sark will not repeat his mistakes. And 10-4 wasn’t a great season. 11-3 or 12-4 sounds about right. 

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Irieguy

Irieguy 1059

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Just now, DanTheHorn said:

Ok I have never placed a bet in my life and know nothing but what I gather from the article below is that it does not matter if the favored team covers or the underdog covers it only matters if the popular bet hits or if the big money bets hit since that is how a sports book loses money. Do I understand it correctly?

https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/sports-columns/todd-dewey/bloodbath-for-sportsbooks-as-nfl-betting-favorites-dominate-2461879/

 

For Rocco your local bookie, he wants to basically balance the action to ensure he doesn’t go broke.  If he has the same amount on both teams, he wins no matter what. For major Las Vegas sports books they pay big money to analytical teams provide the best lines. Big Vegas books have a secondary goal of balancing the bets but they trust their analytics and are happy to have an unbalanced game. In that situation the sports book has a slight rooting interest. 

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UTEE97

UTEE97 3429

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Vegas is betting on the fact that Ewers got his one "bad" game out of the way. He is going to come out blazing and make OSU defense look silly. Sark and Ewers are unlikely to have two bad offensive games back to back. Neither team has a good defense, so it's a wash. That's my explanation for us being favored.

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TwiceHorn

TwiceHorn 31272

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5 minutes ago, Irieguy said:

For Rocco your local bookie, he wants to basically balance the action to ensure he doesn’t go broke.  If he has the same amount on both teams, he wins no matter what. For major Las Vegas sports books they pay big money to analytical teams provide the best lines. Big Vegas books have a secondary goal of balancing the bets but they trust their analytics and are happy to have an unbalanced game. In that situation the sports book has a slight rooting interest. 

Those quotes also said they follow the smart money more than the public money and adjust the lines accordingly.

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Irieguy

Irieguy 1059

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11 minutes ago, DanTheHorn said:

Ok I have never placed a bet in my life and know nothing but what I gather from the article below is that it does not matter if the favored team covers or the underdog covers it only matters if the popular bet hits or if the big money bets hit since that is how a sports book loses money. Do I understand it correctly?

https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/sports-columns/todd-dewey/bloodbath-for-sportsbooks-as-nfl-betting-favorites-dominate-2461879/

 

One other point, people who think major Vegas casinos balance bets are of an outdated mindset before mobile betting was popular. Mobile betting has increased the amounts of parlays. Parlays and other exotic bets make it nearly impossible to have the same “exposure” to two teams in one game. Think of all the crazy 10 team parlays people make. How do you balance all those team exposures?

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DanTheHorn

DanTheHorn 4901

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6 minutes ago, Irieguy said:

For Rocco your local bookie, he wants to basically balance the action to ensure he doesn’t go broke.  If he has the same amount on both teams, he wins no matter what. For major Las Vegas sports books they pay big money to analytical teams provide the best lines. Big Vegas books have a secondary goal of balancing the bets but they trust their analytics and are happy to have an unbalanced game. In that situation the sports book has a slight rooting interest. 

So you are saying Vegas sets the line in a way that the most popular side is the one that is most likely to lose. That way they make not just commission but actual money from a somewhat unbalanced set of bets.

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WBT

WBT 20421

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4 hours ago, LTtxfan said:

Texas favored by 5 on the road seems crazy

Folks who bet on Texas yesterday got their heads handed to them.

How has Texas done against the line in their first 7 games this year ??

 

 

4 hours ago, Rickylovesweed said:

5-2. 

5-2 ATS but the margins by which we've covered (or not) seem pretty big to me.  We have wins by 5.5, 20, 8, 10.5, and 41.5 and losses by 10 (7 in regulation) and 13.  I'm no gambling expert but I have a general sense that Vegas usually hits it closer than that on average.

 

image.png

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Irieguy

Irieguy 1059

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4 minutes ago, DanTheHorn said:

So you are saying Vegas sets the line in a way that the most popular side is the one that is most likely to lose. That way they make not just commission but actual money from a somewhat unbalanced set of bets.

What I’m saying is that sports books executives at major books are like hedge fund managers and have leeway to take risk. They don’t always take risk but they pay a lot of money for information and will take “smart” risks. In the link you posted their “smart” risks didn’t work. But most times it will. They can also play it safe and try to balance 50/50 of course. But they don’t have to and often don’t. 

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Rimbo

Rimbo 25779

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2 hours ago, Duane Moore said:

Our running game has gotten sneakily effective the last three games. 

Our run blocking has gone from "complete ass" to "occasionally opens up a hole;" we have the best RB room in the country, including the best running back; and we now have a credible pass threat to keep teams from stacking the box.

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bluto

bluto 4891

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15 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Those quotes also said they follow the smart money more than the public money and adjust the lines accordingly.

Indeed the sharps are what move the lines and catch the books attention. 
 

and if books wanted even money on each side every game, how the hell do you explain reverse line movements (when a  side is clearly the public’s betting darling, but the line stays still or even moves against the public) 

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Rimbo

Rimbo 25779

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32 minutes ago, Porterhouse said:

I don’t think they’re correct. But outside of UGA, tOSU and Michigan, there’s a giant group of parity between 4 and 20. We would be favored against most teams in those matchups. OSU is no exception. Computers know what they’re talking about. ISU score was deceiving. We should’ve won by 10-13 and they are no slouch. I expect 1-2 more losses but will be disappointed if it’s this weekend. We are young but have much more talent than anyone we have remaining.  Sark can’t let youth be an excuse anymore. He needs to finish very strong and knows we can win the Big 12. Having major turnarounds in the second year of a tenure is a huge sign you’ve got the right guy or conversely, if you don’t. Herman kind of did it but never followed up with OL recruiting and it fucked us considerably. All signs are that Sark will not repeat his mistakes. And 10-4 wasn’t a great season. 11-3 or 12-4 sounds about right. 

This is great in theory. The team's improving, which is nice.

But we still are running a soft zone coverage that is susceptible to high school level passing attacks, and we still have freshmen in the most difficult positions to learn on offense. The former means anyone with any awareness can score on us; the latter means that, despite the high end talent, we'll make dumb mistakes that kill drives early.

Everyone on our schedule can beat us unless one of those two things improves dramatically.

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ztejas

ztejas 43265

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41 minutes ago, DanTheHorn said:

Ok I have never placed a bet in my life and know nothing but what I gather from the article below is that it does not matter if the favored team covers or the underdog covers it only matters if the popular bet hits or if the big money bets hit since that is how a sports book loses money. Do I understand it correctly?

https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/sports-columns/todd-dewey/bloodbath-for-sportsbooks-as-nfl-betting-favorites-dominate-2461879/

 

The books will always make money. You have that right. However - say you call a game right 6 times out of 10 - then you'll make money. Do you think you can call games 6/10 correct? If so then congrats - you're a gambler and you're miserable. 

Most of these dipshits don't do that. Most of them break 50/50 if they're lucky. And books take something off of the top. That's called the "juice". The juice is generally 5% of anyone's winnings. So that goes to the house. 

What also goes to the house is all of the money that stupid dickheads lose every weekend by taking the wrong side. That's why anyone that tells me that Vegas likes to "balance the money" is full of shit. Vegas doesn't like balancing the money. Vegas likes to unbalance the money then win the right side. 

Vegas is good at doing that. Very good. 

So knock yourself out. Throw some money down. 

Also know that I know what the fuck I'm talking about in case some other loser tries this stunt on me.

@40acredropout does that suffice, piss ant? 

Leave me alone. 

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Dbeasy

Dbeasy 14967

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8 hours ago, Irieguy said:

You can say what casinos want or I can quote actual casino sports books executives. The sports books often are so confident in their line that they don’t mind more money coming in. So even as the money comes in they don’t move the line. 

From Chris Andrews sports book expert, ““When it’s the latter, it’s because the book has decided to ‘take a position’ on a game based on what it thinks will happen. The book is still getting its -110 juice, but it’s also gambling a bit.”

 

You do release the casinos are purposely telling everyone this so that the addicted gamblers believe in their own head that they’ve got a potential edge? You can never trust what a casino says about anything. 

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RaysBoomBoomRoom

RaysBoomBoomRoom 5742

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Our defense isn’t nearly as bad as some of us are making them out to be. Perhaps it can be attributed to lack of trust and PTSD for what we endured last season. Yes, our secondary can get abused a little here and there but our D is good enough for us to win (especially against the run) and they are more of an asset rather than a detriment to this team. I’d bet the majority of P5 schools would trade their defense for ours. All of this being said without having a single bonafide pass rusher and only one above average cover guy I’d say we are actually playing above expectations to this point. 

I think the line on this game is what it is because of the way we were able to run the ball against a really good Iowa State D. They weren’t gimmick runs or Bijan having to make three guys miss behind the LOS, they were downhill you know we are going to run but you can’t stop us kind of runs. If we can run at will like that rate moving forward, then this offense will be as difficult to stop as just about any in CFB. This offense, and team in general is just barely scratching the surface. Sark has just got to find a way to avoid a letdown

Edited by RaysBoomBoomRoom
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YGIFS

YGIFS 19449

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59 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

You do release the casinos are purposely telling everyone this so that the addicted gamblers believe in their own head that they’ve got a potential edge? You can never trust what a casino says about anything. 

That's sage advice.  There's a reason once you get a casino license, it's literally impossible not to make hundreds of millions of dollars.  And if you somehow bankrupt the same license twice, the mob will kill you.  

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Hookem2147

Hookem2147 20932

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11 hours ago, Elmer_Fudd said:

I looked at two OK State message boards and didn't see any talk about injuries.  Both boards really don't have a lot of discussion though.

Gundy has media people on a leash up there about injuries. You never here updates from them about injuries and Gundy damn sure won’t say anything himself in a press conference.

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DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt

DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301

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16 hours ago, Rickylovesweed said:

They don't have a better WR than Hutchinson. 

This is the first time Oklahoma State doesn't have a truly game changing WR in about a decade. In all honesty, this is the worst skills group Oklahoma State has had in a long time. Richardson is a good back but not the type RBs they've had in years past. 

Now does this give me confidence with PK? Nope. 

Counterpoint: did Hutchinson do anything where you were like “wow, look at that guy, he’s a game changer!” (Other than, well, change the outcome of the game by dropping the biggest gimme in football history)?

The notion that a team needs one or more game changing receivers to shred this defense is a farce. 

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Hiphopopotamos

Hiphopopotamos 20865

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2 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Counterpoint: did Hutchinson do anything where you were like “wow, look at that guy, he’s a game changer!” (Other than, well, change the outcome of the game by dropping the biggest gimme in football history)?

The notion that a team needs one or more game changing receivers to shred this defense is a farce. 

His ability to get open is why he's a 'game-changer'.  Finding soft spots in a zone defense is a skill.  And he's got no problem beating man coverage when teams decide to go that direction.

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DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt

DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301

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1 minute ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

His ability to get open is why he's a 'game-changer'.  Finding soft spots in a zone defense is a skill.  And he's got no problem beating man coverage when teams decide to go that direction.

Okie dokie. Well, according to the poster above we’ve got the worst skills group in recent history for OSU coming up. Let’s see if the can change the game by finding any of the 4 or 5 soft spots in our zone coverage play after play after play.

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JBJ

JBJ 3649

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10 hours ago, TexArcher said:

What does that even mean, they trust their lines?  As in, they're baiting people to put more on one side or the other?  If that were true, the line wouldn't immediately move the other direction.

What casinos want more than anything else is risk-free money.  See also, slot machines.  They get risk-free money at the sportsbook by having balanced lines, or as close to it as they can get.  If you think any casino is happy to have 75% of the action on one side of the betting because they feel like they got the point spread right, then you have no idea what you're talking about.

It is 100% this.  Vegas loses more sportsbook bets than they win.  They make 100% of their revenue on the juice and they have to use some of that money to pay winners.

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BornAndRaised

BornAndRaised 12223

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, RaysBoomBoomRoom said:

Our defense isn’t nearly as bad as some of us are making them out to be. Perhaps it can be attributed to lack of trust and PTSD for what we endured last season. Yes, our secondary can get abused a little here and there but our D is good enough for us to win (especially against the run) and they are more of an asset rather than a detriment to this team. I’d bet the majority of P5 schools would trade their defense for ours. All of this being said without having a single bonafide pass rusher and only one above average cover guy I’d say we are actually playing above expectations to this point. 

I feel the same way. I get upset at PK as much as anyone during the games. However looking at it, we're #2 in QB pressures, and our defense is allowing 18.7 ppg compared to the 31.5ppg we were giving up last year. I want to be out on him, but we're showing real improvement. I feel like we're one above average pass rusher away from being a really fucking good defense.

Edited by BornAndRaised
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