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Texas opens as a 1 point favorite @ Oklahoma State

TexasMan

By TexasMan
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Hiphopopotamos

Hiphopopotamos 21191

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Posted
1 minute ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Cool. Do you think a team needs a game changer or 2 at WR to pick this defense apart?

Generally, yes.  Prior to Iowa St Texas hadn't given up a 100 yard receiving game.  Despite what gets posted in the game thread - this is a good defense.  For all of the platitudes for Iowa St and Hutchinson, Texas only gave up 21 points.  And on the season is only giving up 18.3 (good for 20th).  Texas was 8th in DFEI prior to the Iowa St game.

This defense isn't perfect and with true freshman in the two deep is going to give up some oops plays (like Austin Jordan allowing the long touchdown).  But on the whole this defense has been very effective through 7 games.

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The Dog

The Dog 44861

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Our defense has definitely improved and the offense is great. that said, I think we're due for a pretty hard regression to the mean as I think our performances against Bama and OU "skews the numbers" in all of the metrics. 

this defense gives up way too many 3rd and long and 4th downs for me to trust them on the road. 

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markstanco

markstanco 12791

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18 hours ago, Porterhouse said:

You’re fooled by historical AP rankings. There is no way the line will shift to OSU -4 or -5. Come the fuck on. Texas is more like to move to -3. Y’all do realize that most computers have us ranked in the Top 5?

Yea I saw last week where that Jeff Sagarin (sp?) guy had it at #3 or 4.  

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Vertigo

Vertigo 20498

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9 minutes ago, Hookem2147 said:

I don’t know man, but I’m gonna guess having a dude who leads the country in receptions probably makes life a little easier.

Considering that he was pretty much their entire offense yesterday, I would say so. The only other big play was a coverage bust. I want to see some tight fuck you coverage this week on third downs. 

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Hiphopopotamos

Hiphopopotamos 21191

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2 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Our defense has definitely improved and the offense is great. that said, I think we're due for a pretty hard regression to the mean as I think our performances against Bama and OU "skews the numbers" in all of the metrics. 

this defense gives up way too many 3rd and long and 4th downs for me to trust them on the road. 

I'm not sure what you mean when you say those two performances 'skew the numbers'.  OU, maybe, just because their offensive game plan was shit and they basically gave up.  But the performance against Alabama is close to what we've seen pretty much every other game except Tech. 

ULM - Texas gave up 10 points to ULM, Alabama is the only opponent who held them to fewer (7).  The rest of their competition is Sun Belt so its hard to compare, but Texas defense went out and did their job.

Alabama - Texas held Alabama to 20 points, that's 29 points below any other game this year where Bryce Young played.  Alabama scored 24 in a game where they started a QB who had three turnovers and couldn't complete a pass.

UTSA - Texas held UTSA to 20 points, 10 points below their second worst offensive performance and 16 points below their average for the season.

Texas Tech - Texas defense shit the bed.  Texas allowed Tech more than their average and couldn't get a stop at any point.

West Virginia - Texas held West Virginia to 11 fewer points than the Mountaineers second worst offensive performance and 19 below their season average.

Oklahoma - total fucking domination.

Iowa St - was rough at times but Texas defense came up with stops and turnovers when they absolutely had to.  Offense didn't have it this week and the defense did enough - kept it to 20 points.

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oSuJeff97

oSuJeff97 3439

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17 hours ago, Rickylovesweed said:

They don't have a better WR than Hutchinson. 

This is the first time Oklahoma State doesn't have a truly game changing WR in about a decade. In all honesty, this is the worst skills group Oklahoma State has had in a long time. Richardson is a good back but not the type RBs they've had in years past. 

 

This is mostly because of injuries and youth.

Jaden Bray is that next guy, and he was probably going to have a monster year but he's barely seen the field. He missed the first 4 games with a hand injury, played some against Texas Tech but was then out again for the TCU game.

Brayden Johnson is probably the next closest, and could have a season like Tay Martin did last year, but has also had some injuries.

 

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The Dog

The Dog 44861

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3 minutes ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

I'm not sure what you mean when you say those two performances 'skew the numbers'.  OU, maybe, just because their offensive game plan was shit and they basically gave up.  But the performance against Alabama is close to what we've seen pretty much every other game except Tech. 

 

Yeah it's really that one. Alabama showed what we COULD be, but in our one true road game we were awful on defense and I saw a lot of that on Saturday against Iowa State.

It was more than "rough at times" - we gave up 8 of 14 third and longs for first downs or scores.

We've also given up more fourth down conversions than any team in the nation (13 out of 25).

We just have a poor situational defense that can have a hard time getting off the field and the result is extended drives that can cost us in the long run. It cost us against Tech and almost cost us against Iowa State. If that defense shows up against Okie Lite then we are toast.

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NeverMarryAStripper

NeverMarryAStripper 22304

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11 hours ago, Irieguy said:

One other point, people who think major Vegas casinos balance bets are of an outdated mindset before mobile betting was popular. Mobile betting has increased the amounts of parlays. Parlays and other exotic bets make it nearly impossible to have the same “exposure” to two teams in one game. Think of all the crazy 10 team parlays people make. How do you balance all those team exposures?

The casinos would cum in their pants if all people did was bet parlays.  The payout odds on parlays are so out of whack that they can't help but make money on them.

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Hiphopopotamos

Hiphopopotamos 21191

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8 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Yeah it's really that one. Alabama showed what we COULD be, but in our one true road game we were awful on defense and I saw a lot of that on Saturday against Iowa State.

It was more than "rough at times" - we gave up 8 of 14 third and longs for first downs or scores.

We've also given up more fourth down conversions than any team in the nation (13 out of 25).

We just have a poor situational defense that can have a hard time getting off the field and the result is extended drives that can cost us in the long run. It cost us against Tech and almost cost us against Iowa State. If that defense shows up against Okie Lite then we are toast.

Yes - Texas has also had more 4th downs attempted against them than any other team in the country (thank you Tech).  Texas .520 conversion rate allowed is 69th (nice) in the country.  The absolute egg they laid in the Tech game is certainly skewing that stat.  Against Tech, Texas allowed 6 out of 8 4th down attempts.  The rest of the year Texas is allowing only 7 of 17 for a .411 conversion rate allowed (which would put them right inside the top 40).

Texas defense on the year is 8th in Points Per Play Allowed.  So while they do give up third downs (88th) - they have been able to limit explosive plays and force teams into long methodical drives.  

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Red Five

Red Five 41739

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7 minutes ago, JesusSweatDuck said:

Posting here because I don't see a game week thread, but one of the many fuck ups by Cain during the game.  Watch him get blown up on the LOS and then run the wrong route after getting up.

 

 

Not the first time his effort level has been an issue. But at least he makes up for it by being slow and having stone hands.

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JBJ

JBJ 3827

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1 hour ago, Irieguy said:

Want to bet on this? 

I understand what you guys are saying.  They don't 100% balance or even try to every single game.  They aren't swinging the line so far that they lose both ways and if they think the public money is dumb, they'll take a stand because they think they have an advantage on the outcome itself.

The statistics are what they are, though. Vegas loses more bets than they win.  At the end of the day it's 100% juice even though they might win individual games.

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closetojumping

closetojumping 65430

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16 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Their QB has to be out.

If he is, they have hot fucking garbage to replace him. What did the line actually open at? I know the thread subject says -1 Texas, but I feel like this board does that premature line shit every week. How much has it moved from whatever Circa originally released? 

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JBJ

JBJ 3827

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Posted
2 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

If he is, they have hot fucking garbage to replace him. What did the line actually open at? I know the thread subject says -1 Texas, but I feel like this board does that premature line shit every week. How much has it moved from whatever Circa originally released? 

It actually opened-1.  The early line was +2.5

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 34664

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2 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

If he is, they have hot fucking garbage to replace him. What did the line actually open at? I know the thread subject says -1 Texas, but I feel like this board does that premature line shit every week. How much has it moved from whatever Circa originally released? 

Circa indeed released it at Texas -1

https://twitter.com/CircaSports/status/1581709456106135552

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closetojumping

closetojumping 65430

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1 minute ago, Huckleberry said:

Circa indeed released it at Texas -1

https://twitter.com/CircaSports/status/1581709456106135552

Damn. There isn't much that can happen to move a line 5 points like that, is there? Someone has to believe that Sanders isn't playing. 

Gunnar Gundy went 12-20 against UAPB, with 2 tds and a pick. He must be a man. It would be fun to find out on Saturday.

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UDontKnow

UDontKnow 10572

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1 minute ago, closetojumping said:

Damn. There isn't much that can happen to move a line 5 points like that, is there? Someone has to believe that Sanders isn't playing. 

Gunnar Gundy went 12-20 against UAPB, with 2 tds and a pick. He must be a man. It would be fun to find out on Saturday.

Given Texas's history against backup QBs, I respectfully disagree that it will be fun to find out.

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TrashMaster G

TrashMaster G 18099

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14 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

If he is, they have hot fucking garbage to replace him. What did the line actually open at? I know the thread subject says -1 Texas, but I feel like this board does that premature line shit every week. How much has it moved from whatever Circa originally released? 

CBS Sportsline had it opening at Texas -3, now at -6.

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 34664

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3 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Damn. There isn't much that can happen to move a line 5 points like that, is there? Someone has to believe that Sanders isn't playing. 

Gunnar Gundy went 12-20 against UAPB, with 2 tds and a pick. He must be a man. It would be fun to find out on Saturday.

Circa does miss the consensus starting line by a bit sometimes in their rush to be first to post. From what I can tell Caesar's and Wynn first posted 3 or 3.5 on Sunday (not counting preseason lines). Still significant movement but not as much. 

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UTEE97

UTEE97 3936

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Our defense plays up and down. We showed what our ceiling is against Bama and OU, but then we have games against Tceh and Iowa St where we don't play with any intensity at all. It's almost like the players think they can just go through the motions, make some opportunistic plays or expect the other team to make a mistake, and still win. These types of games can go either way, as we found out. The coaches need to figure out how to get them to play with an edge every game no matter who the completion is. 

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Go Pokes

Go Pokes 979

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Posted
17 hours ago, Rickylovesweed said:

@Go Pokes what are your boards saying on Sanders?

I know he had the shoulder injury going into the TCU game but it also looked like he did something to his ankle at the end of the TCU game. 

They don't know anything.  Sure seems like he's injured though.  At least that would explain whatever the hell we were doing Saturday.  Maybe The Legend of Little Gundy beings Saturday.  

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Tex48

Tex48 852

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, HRSchenker said:

Just bought my tickets and now I need to find a hotel in Tulsa. Oklahoma State is going to give us hell but I think we're gonna do the same to them. Should be a fun game.

How many of us are going to be in Stillwater this weekend? I am flying into Tulsa for Oktoberfest on Friday and planning on Tailgating in Stillwater on Saturday.  

Edited by Tex48
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