Lina Hidalgo

[tokamak 6391]

7 hours ago, Dutchrudder said:

CJILF

[DaysOff 7947]

20 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

woodlands / karenville is the perfect place for her 

 

 We call that pilot housing North at work.

[WBT 20561]

So Lina won by <2% while Beto won the county by about 9%.  Doesn't seem to bode well for her future.  Thoughts?

[Dutchrudder 11133]

2 minutes ago, WBT said:

So Lina won by <2% while Beto won the county by about 9%.  Doesn't seem to bode well for her future.  Thoughts?

I somewhat doubt the GOP is going to spend 10s of millions again to run against her, unless Lina has some significant scandal between now and then.  She's pretty well protected for now, and may move on to another job before her term ends. She's a rising star at this point.

[WBT 20561]

4 minutes ago, Dutchrudder said:

She's a rising star at this point.

That's the part I'm wondering about.  Attacks will only get worse if she runs for state office.

[Dutchrudder 11133]

10 minutes ago, WBT said:

That's the part I'm wondering about.  Attacks will only get worse if she runs for state office.

Running for a statewide office would be a mistake, Dems aren't going to win those any time soon. I think she will go for a House seat at some point, and move up the Federal chain. Maybe run against Cruz at some point. 

[Js1 85275]

24 minutes ago, WBT said:

So Lina won by <2% while Beto won the county by about 9%.  Doesn't seem to bode well for her future.  Thoughts?

Different dynamics.

Lina and the countywide Dems on the courts were hammered for months and months about CRIME!!!!!! which terrified the suburban voters enough to vote for Mealer.  The Chron Endorsement may have revealed a very weird and large subset of Beto-Mealer-GOP Judges voters.  

The county-level dynamics were such that there was a lot of ticket splitting. 

Lina barely prevailed.  6 criminal court Dems barely lost.  

[gmr548 16576]

So Lina won by

Local races are much more detached from sentiment toward national politics/partisanship than a governor’s race is.

[Js1 85275]

11 minutes ago, Dutchrudder said:

Running for a statewide office would be a mistake, Dems aren't going to win those any time soon. I think she will go for a House seat at some point, and move up the Federal chain. Maybe run against Cruz at some point. 

I think a House seat is a good bet. Someone like Sylvia Garcia won’t serve forever. She’s 72

[tokamak 6391]

Yeah I think crime stats will normalize because that kind of shit is just cyclical and she'll be fine going forward. People will go back to mostly not giving a shit about what the county judge is up to.

 I think she should sit tight. Don't really see the point of going to the House. Keep building her profile, hope that Texas can drift purple a little bit, and challenge Cruz in 2030.

[Your Mom 4805]

1 hour ago, DaysOff said:

 

 We call that pilot housing North at work.

Terminal W. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13508]

35 minutes ago, WBT said:

So Lina won by <2% while Beto won the county by about 9%.  Doesn't seem to bode well for her future.  Thoughts?

fair point. But I also have to guess that many GOP donors are butthurt that they dropped 5-6 figures each and they have even less power in the county commission. Mealer raised more money than anyone in the state except Abbott and Beto.  

If GOP groups want another run at it with that much money, they might be able to create another challenge. Downsides are that Mattress Mack looks to be sliding quickly in terms of his health. The Chronicle would most likely also rethink their position.

Still 2026 is a long way away and Lina will have opportunities to do good work or make mistakes.

 

[BrickHorn 18216]

2 minutes ago, tokamak said:

I think she should sit tight. Don't really see the point of going to the House. Keep building her profile, hope that Texas can drift purple a little bit, and challenge Cruz in 2030.

I no longer believe Texas is drifting purple. I had hope that the influx of professionals from out of state would shift the state blue. But it’s looking more and more like Texas is a red sink in the nation’s continuing geographic segregation. Our state is a destination for greedy, gun-fucking douchebags who can’t bear to live in a hellhole with the audacity to make the god-fearing, hard-working middle managers, realtors, and pharmaceutical reps who made America the greatest superpower in world history pay taxes — TAXES! — to fund communist shit like secular education, public transportation, and social services. It’s only going to get worse as more of these selfish, delusional ding-dongs move in.

[tx 3 putt 76870]

Ogg has to be on the chopping block 

[Js1 85275]

17 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

fair point. But I also have to guess that many GOP donors are butthurt that they dropped 5-6 figures each and they have even less power in the county commission. Mealer raised more money than anyone in the state except Abbott and Beto.  

If GOP groups want another run at it with that much money, they might be able to create another challenge. Downsides are that Mattress Mack looks to be sliding quickly in terms of his health. The Chronicle would most likely also rethink their position.

Still 2026 is a long way away and Lina will have opportunities to do good work or make mistakes.

 

Mealer could run for Mayor with Turner term limited, but coming off a losing effort in 2022 "red year" is not going to endear her to many people.  

2 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

Ogg has to be on the chopping block 

 GOD YES.  I will give her credit for knocking off Devon Anderson, but god damn, Harris County can do better.

[elfenix 34223]

9 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

GQP strategy: gaslighting and bullshit

[tx 3 putt 76870]

2 minutes ago, elfenix said:

GQP strategy: gaslighting and bullshit

 Correct, but not today satan !

[Chad Fuck 17659]

17 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

she needs to keep breaking up these good old boys groups in houston 

Sitting in Dallas, watching from afar, it is readily apparent that's what the good ole boys are so pissed about.  They have their little cronies all getting their beaks wet, and some little upstart asks, "Hey, what's going on here?"  and they lose their shit.

As an aside, it's like they tried to find a bizzaro version of Lina to run against her.  Same deal with Flores down in the Valley.  Severe misreading of the room.

[Pescado_Rojo 19413]

58 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

I no longer believe Texas is drifting purple. I had hope that the influx of professionals from out of state would shift the state blue. But it’s looking more and more like Texas is a red sink in the nation’s continuing geographic segregation. Our state is a destination for greedy, gun-fucking douchebags who can’t bear to live in a hellhole with the audacity to make the god-fearing, hard-working middle managers, realtors, and pharmaceutical reps who made America the greatest superpower in world history pay taxes — TAXES! — to fund communist shit like secular education, public transportation, and social services. It’s only going to get worse as more of these selfish, delusional ding-dongs move in.

[tx 3 putt 76870]

59 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

I no longer believe Texas is drifting purple. I had hope that the influx of professionals from out of state would shift the state blue. But it’s looking more and more like Texas is a red sink in the nation’s continuing geographic segregation. Our state is a destination for greedy, gun-fucking douchebags who can’t bear to live in a hellhole with the audacity to make the god-fearing, hard-working middle managers, realtors, and pharmaceutical reps who made America the greatest superpower in world history pay taxes — TAXES! — to fund communist shit like secular education, public transportation, and social services. It’s only going to get worse as more of these selfish, delusional ding-dongs move in.

give it two year of R’s war on abortion. They’ll want to track cycles real time, permission to leave the state, fine corporations for covering abortions, go after dfw, Austin, hou, ….

[royiv 9247]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Mealer could run for Mayor with Turner term limited, but coming off a losing effort in 2022 "red year" is not going to endear her to many people.  

Would be interesting to see how Mealer did in the polls in Houston proper versus outside of Houston proper. My guess would be that she did better outside of the city limits, but I haven't researched it. If my hypothesis is correct, running for mayor would be a fool's errand. 

[Js1 85275]

4 minutes ago, royiv said:

Would be interesting to see how Mealer did in the polls in Houston proper versus outside of Houston proper. My guess would be that she did better outside of the city limits, but I haven't researched it. If my hypothesis is correct, running for mayor would be a fool's errand. 

100% sure she did very well in Cypress, Kingwood, Spring, etc. lol

[DaysOff 7947]

I no longer believe Texas is drifting purple. I had hope that the influx of professionals from out of state would shift the state blue. But it’s looking more and more like Texas is a red sink in the nation’s continuing geographic segregation. Our state is a destination for greedy, gun-fucking douchebags who can’t bear to live in a hellhole with the audacity to make the god-fearing, hard-working middle managers, realtors, and pharmaceutical reps who made America the greatest superpower in world history pay taxes — TAXES! — to fund communist shit like secular education, public transportation, and social services. It’s only going to get worse as more of these selfish, delusional ding-dongs move in.

That's partially because candidates like Beto are somewhat on their own. He holds rallies in 254 counties and after he leaves what infrastructure is in place to gotv.

Florida and Texas are lost causes for democrats for a while going forward. Republicans can ignore wasting resources in both as well.

[chainsaw 9857]

2 minutes ago, DaysOff said:

That's partially because candidates like Beto are somewhat on their own. He holds rallies in 254 counties and after he leaves what infrastructure is in place to gotv.

Florida and Texas are lost causes for democrats for a while going forward. Republicans can ignore wasting resources in both as well.

I disagree on Texas. It's still shifting purple, just not as fast as we'd hope.

[Pescado_Rojo 19413]

5 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

I disagree on Texas. It's still shifting purple, just not as fast as we'd hope.

I think it's ebbing and flowing from deep crimson red to bright red and back again. It's a long, long way from purple. 

[wildcat09 29345]

Just now, chainsaw said:

I disagree on Texas. It's still shifting purple, just not as fast as we'd hope.

This is a hell of a take after the last few statewide elections. Literally every possible datapoint indicates that the demographic shift theory is bullshit (tons of Latinos are actually conservative) and most of those Californians, New Yorkers, etc. moving in are the conservative lunatics who can't stand living in those states and think Texas is the new redoubt for white supremacists.

[chainsaw 9857]

Just now, wildcat09 said:

This is a hell of a take after the last few statewide elections. Literally every possible datapoint indicates that the demographic shift theory is bullshit (tons of Latinos are actually conservative) and most of those Californians, New Yorkers, etc. moving in are the conservative lunatics who can't stand living in those states and think Texas is the new redoubt for white supremacists.

Latinos aren't that conservative, at least not in Texas. GOP bet big on south texas and lost. Dems will begin consistently winning places like Williamson and Tarrant, eventually even places like Colin and Montgomery.

[wildcat09 29345]

I'm 35 and I seriously doubt the Dems will ever come within 10% in Montgomery County in my lifetime.

[MaybeACoordinator 8349]

7 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

I think it's ebbing and flowing from deep crimson red to bright red and back again. It's a long, long way from purple. 

Like a gnarly wound barely staving off a lethal infection 

[DaysOff 7947]

I'm 35 and I seriously doubt the Dems will ever come within 10% in Montgomery County in my lifetime.

Gig em ags

[Pescado_Rojo 19413]

12 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Latinos aren't that conservative, at least not in Texas. GOP bet big on south texas and lost. Dems will begin consistently winning places like Williamson and Tarrant, eventually even places like Colin and Montgomery.

I live in Williamson County, and Dems just seriously underperformed the bluing trend from the past few elections. We had great, well funded candidates for County Judge and several county commissioner and JP seats, and got swept at a rate that mimics the statewide numbers. I haven't looked at the precinct level numbers yet, but I'm betting a lot of the growth in Liberty Hill is the right wing refugees from California thinking they've found their Red Utopia. 

Feels like 46% is the high water mark for Dems in all but the most urban counties. 

[tx 3 putt 76870]

10 minutes ago, DaysOff said:

Gig em ags

texas ags is screaming they're all moving to waller and montgomery counties 

[tx 3 putt 76870]

 

[chainsaw 9857]

11 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

I live in Williamson County, and Dems just seriously underperformed the bluing trend from the past few elections. We had great, well funded candidates for County Judge and several county commissioner and JP seats, and got swept at a rate that mimics the statewide numbers. I haven't looked at the precinct level numbers yet, but I'm betting a lot of the growth in Liberty Hill is the right wing refugees from California thinking they've found their Red Utopia. 

Feels like 46% is the high water mark for Dems in all but the most urban counties. 

people are forgetting that midterms gon' midterm. we don't have the luxury of a blue wall here yet. the fact that Tarrant and Williamson are even competitive would have been unthinkable in the W days when the GOP could count on it for a solid 66-33 margin.

[royiv 9247]

29 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

texas ags is screaming they're all moving to waller and montgomery counties 

[royiv 9247]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

100% sure she did very well in Cypress, Kingwood, Spring, etc. lol

Good point. The thing is that those areas are a lot less dense than big blue parts of town, but probably have better voter turnout per capita. I still think she would struggle more in a mayoral election than in a countywide race.

[Js1 85275]

33 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

Awesome.

[Macanudo 12975]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

100% sure she did very well in Cypress, Kingwood, Spring, etc. lol

She for damn sure did well in Kingwood based on what I saw.   Mealer signaged was probably 4 or 5 to 1 over Hidalgo and the "vote R to decrease crime" thing was a big push out here too.   Even though crime in Kingwood means a teenager broke into a car.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13508]

It might not be impossible but it would be difficult for a Republican to win the mayor race in Houston.

Technically it's non-partisan but the real Dem candidate will do what they can to ensure voters know who is who.

[gmr548 16576]

Latinos aren't that conservative, at least not in Texas. GOP bet big on south texas and lost. Dems will begin consistently winning places like Williamson and Tarrant, eventually even places like Colin and Montgomery.

Tell me you’ve never been to Montgomery County without telling me you’ve never been to Montgomery County.

[Macanudo 12975]

7 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Tell me you’ve never been to Montgomery County without telling me you’ve never been to Montgomery County.

No shit.  That fucked up county is regarded.

[Dnaguy 11919]

Texas would be more purple if those who control the levers of government played fair.

Putting your finger on the scale really helps you keep getting elected.

 

[chainsaw 9857]

10 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Tell me you’ve never been to Montgomery County without telling me you’ve never been to Montgomery County.

I spent a lot of time in Georgetown at the height of the Bush administration. I get that Austin is more "liberal" than Houston in terms of the culture, but these are exactly the same arguments I would hear about WilCo never going purple. They were wrong.

[Pescado_Rojo 19413]

1 hour ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

I live in Williamson County, and Dems just seriously underperformed the bluing trend from the past few elections. We had great, well funded candidates for County Judge and several county commissioner and JP seats, and got swept at a rate that mimics the statewide numbers. I haven't looked at the precinct level numbers yet, but I'm betting a lot of the growth in Liberty Hill is the right wing refugees from California thinking they've found their Red Utopia. 

Feels like 46% is the high water mark for Dems in all but the most urban counties. 

So I took a quick and dirty look at votes by precinct and compared it to the precinct map for WilCo, and the high population precincts where Republicans had the largest vote differential were Sun City (no surprise the olds went heavy R), Liberty Hill and the new subdivisions around Ronald Reagan and Hwy 29 (technically Liberty Hill...or at least LHISD), and the part of Avery Ranch between Parmer and 183A. 

Also, my precinct went red after being blue in '16, '18, and '20. And not by a slim margin...it was about a 15% swing. In an area that's built out, so no new neighborhoods to account for the big swing. No idea what to make of that, except we're in Tx31, and the Dems didn't even bother to field a candidate there or in SD5 (Schwertner didn't even bother to print new signs, he just ran with the same old weather beaten signs he's used the last couple cycles.) Maybe a case of Trump not being on the ballot actually helping Rs? 

[Goofyboy 3269]

Can someone point me to actual crime rate numbers that the GOP was screaming about being so bad?

[Patricio Swayze 17058]

Can someone point me to actual crime rate numbers that the GOP was screaming about being so bad?

Download nextdoor. Open nextdoor. Read about brown people walking where they aren’t supposed to be. You now have your crime stats.

[Js1 85275]

2 minutes ago, Goofyboy said:

Can someone point me to actual crime rate numbers that the GOP was screaming about being so bad?

Ask Mealer, she found them on NextDoor. But the vibes are scary!!

[Beau Vine 54207]

3 hours ago, chainsaw said:

Dems will begin consistently winning places like Williamson and Tarrant, eventually even places like Colin and Montgomery.

[chainsaw 9857]

33 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

So I took a quick and dirty look at votes by precinct and compared it to the precinct map for WilCo, and the high population precincts where Republicans had the largest vote differential were Sun City (no surprise the olds went heavy R), Liberty Hill and the new subdivisions around Ronald Reagan and Hwy 29 (technically Liberty Hill...or at least LHISD), and the part of Avery Ranch between Parmer and 183A. 

Also, my precinct went red after being blue in '16, '18, and '20. And not by a slim margin...it was about a 15% swing. In an area that's built out, so no new neighborhoods to account for the big swing. No idea what to make of that, except we're in Tx31, and the Dems didn't even bother to field a candidate there or in SD5 (Schwertner didn't even bother to print new signs, he just ran with the same old weather beaten signs he's used the last couple cycles.) Maybe a case of Trump not being on the ballot actually helping Rs? 

I think it's the "No Trump Bump" plus blue apathy as evidenced by not even bothering to field a candidate

[chainsaw 9857]

Just now, Beau Vine said:

It's just demographics. Boomers are racist but not nearly as racist as their parents and grandparents. Anyone who lives 20 minutes from a Panera are likelier to vote D. As these counties get more suburban and as the cities get more unaffordable to Gen Z'ers entering the workforce, you will see the changes. It's slow but inevitable. California used to be reliably red. It gave us fucking Nixon and Reagan.