We're Going (Alamo) Bowling!!!

[Texas Wahoo 3383]

On 11/20/2022 at 9:37 PM, pacman said:

https://www.espn.com/college-football/insider/story/_/id/35067369/week-12-college-football-bowl-projections-cfp-new-years-six

Still projecting Alamo Bowl versus Pac-12

Valero Alamo Bowl

Alamodome (San Antonio)

9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Texas vs. Oregon

Schlabach: Texas vs. Washington

 

All of the current projections have TCU in the playoff and the Sugar Bowl selecting Kansas State, presumably after losing to TCU in the Big 12 championship.

Is there any chance the Sugar Bowl would select 8-4 Texas over 9-4 Kansas State?  I have not seen that projected anywhere.

[mdmost 42860]

I doubt it. It’s for the Big 12 champ or the runner up if the winner goes to the playoff. 2018 bore that out.

[gmr548 16504]

All of the current projections have TCU in the playoff and the Sugar Bowl selecting Kansas State, presumably after losing to TCU in the Big 12 championship.
Is there any chance the Sugar Bowl would select 8-4 Texas over 9-4 Kansas State?  I have not seen that projected anywhere.

No. Big 12 will send CCG loser of winner is a playoff team. On the off chance Texas backs into the CCG and TCU wins against ISU, Texas will be guaranteed a Sugar Bowl berth via Big 12 champion slot (lol) or covering for playoff bound TCU.

[Red Five 40654]

Yeah but in 2018 the runner-up was Texas. Is it written down anywhere that the Sugar must take the runner-up? 

[satyanash 14281]

1 minute ago, Red Five said:

Yeah but in 2018 the runner-up was Texas. Is it written down anywhere that the Sugar must take the runner-up? 

https://wvmetronews.com/2018/11/27/sugar-bowl-out-of-picture-west-virginia-texas-big-12/

"The Big 12 clarified its selection protocol: If the winner of the Big 12 Championship game is selected for a CFP semifinal, the runner-up team from the championship game would advance to the Sugar Bowl."

[Texas Wahoo 3383]

20 minutes ago, satyanash said:

https://wvmetronews.com/2018/11/27/sugar-bowl-out-of-picture-west-virginia-texas-big-12/

"The Big 12 clarified its selection protocol: If the winner of the Big 12 Championship game is selected for a CFP semifinal, the runner-up team from the championship game would advance to the Sugar Bowl."

It's weird that they would not include that in their bowl selection section on their website then.  https://big12sports.com/news/2019/5/23/211718886.aspx

Quote

Big 12 Bowl Partners
Once the CFP has filled its bowl slots, Big 12 bowl partners will make selections from the remaining Conference teams. Following is the order of selection. A bowl may pick from any available teams with .500 or better records when it reaches its spot in the selection order. After the placement of those teams, slots will be filled from among the pool of remaining teams.
Allstate Sugar
Valero Alamo
Cheez-It
TaxAct Texas
AutoZone Liberty
Guaranteed Rate
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl*/SERVPRO First Responder Bowl* 

 

[Texas Wahoo 3383]

11 minutes ago, Texas Wahoo said:

It's weird that they would not include that in their bowl selection section on their website then.  https://big12sports.com/news/2019/5/23/211718886.aspx

 

It does look like the process may be slightly different now than before the most recent negotiations:  https://big12sports.com/news/2019/5/23/211718886.aspx

Quote

Big 12 Bowl Partners
Once the CFP has filled its bowl slots, Big 12 bowl partners will make selections from the remaining bowl eligible teams. Following is the order of selection. A bowl may pick from any available teams when it reaches its spot in the selection order.
Valero Alamo
Russell Athletic
AdvoCare V100 Texas
AutoZone Liberty
Cactus
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl

Note that the Sugar Bowl was treated separately from the rest in 2016-17, even though that was another year that it was not a semifinal.  May be nothing, but there may be a distinction.

[TwiceHorn 31269]

 

[Red Five 40654]

1 hour ago, Texas Wahoo said:

A bowl may pick from any available teams with .500 or better records when it reaches its spot in the selection order.

Well. If this is true, then we're probably going to the Sugar Bowl if we beat Baylor. 

[ryskey 447]

Records in 1-score games

TCU 5-0

KSU 2-2

Texas 2-4

OkSt 2-1

BU 2-3

TT 3-0

OU 0-3

KU 3-1

WVU 2-1

ISU 1-6

The Big 12 has 7 above average teams team with wildly different outcomes in close games.  Two average teams who've done well in close games (KU, TT).  And one below average team (WVU).  No one is elite or terrible.

Being clutch is a thing and huge intangible.  Good for TCU and their chutzpah.  Bad for UT.  But mean reversion always happens.  Take avg margin of victory - ISU, despite being last in the Big 12 at 4-7, is outscoring their opponents by an average margin of 4.2 points.  Play this season 100 times and they'd normally be 7-4 right now.  TCU is undefeated and their avg margin is 14 points.  Play their season 100 times and they'd normally be 8-3 or 9-2 right now.

If TCU makes it to the CFP (and they probably should if they win the last 2 games as a reward for being so clutch), they're going to face a good opponent for the first time this year and they're going to get stomped.  For the sake of making this a more entertaining CFP, I hope they choke away one of the last 2.  

[mdleast 8261]

Bowl possibilities breakdown via Alex Loeb and LHN:

[gmr548 16504]

On 11/22/2022 at 11:29 AM, Texas Wahoo said:

It's weird that they would not include that in their bowl selection section on their website then.  https://big12sports.com/news/2019/5/23/211718886.aspx

 

"Once the CFP fills its bowl slots..."

The Sugar Bowl is included in that. The CFP committee sets NY6 matchups, utilizing conference tie ins where applicable.

[gmr548 16504]

2 minutes ago, mdleast said:

Bowl possibilities breakdown via Alex Loeb and LHN:

I don't really see how KSU winning the B12 knocks Texas out of the Alamo bowl. I guess if TCU loses to ISU, sure. But a 12-1 TCU would still get a NY6 bid.

[Topper13 3201]

Sugar vs LSU to make up for the covid year would be awesome

[Doc Daneeka 6769]

On 11/25/2022 at 9:57 AM, gmr548 said:

"Once the CFP fills its bowl slots..."

The Sugar Bowl is included in that. The CFP committee sets NY6 matchups, utilizing conference tie ins where applicable.

Then why include the Sugar Bowl in this list?

 

Big 12 Bowl Partners
Once the CFP has filled its bowl slots, Big 12 bowl partners will make selections from the remaining Conference teams. Following is the order of selection. A bowl may pick from any available teams with .500 or better records when it reaches its spot in the selection order. After the placement of those teams, slots will be filled from among the pool of remaining teams.
Allstate Sugar
Valero Alamo
Cheez-It
TaxAct Texas
AutoZone Liberty
Guaranteed Rate
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl*/SERVPRO First Responder Bowl* 

[Neonmoon 38127]

So if KU wins, we go to Sugar no matter what? Win or lose in Big 12 Champ game?

already answer up thread 

add: if TCU loses to ISU, and Texas backs into CCG, Where would Texas go if they lose? Still Alamo I guess?

Edited November 26, 2022 by Neonmoon

[Texas Wahoo 3383]

24 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

So if KU wins, we go to Sugar no matter what? Win or lose in Big 12 Champ game?

already answer up thread 

add: if TCU loses to ISU, and Texas backs into CCG, Where would Texas go if they lose? Still Alamo I guess?

The only way Texas does not go to the Sugar or Alamo bowls is if the Alamo bowl picks someone else, which seems very unlikely. 

[RabidM 2664]

OK, so say TCU wins the B12 championship game and go to the playoffs.  We are 8-4 and KSU is 9-4.  We clearly are a much bigger draw and they're only half a game better than us, and we beat them at KSU.  Can we slip into the Sugar under this scenario?

[GreenspointTexas 9565]

Extremely doubtful. Like 1% chance

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

6 minutes ago, RabidM said:

OK, so say TCU wins the B12 championship game and go to the playoffs.  We are 8-4 and KSU is 9-4.  We clearly are a much bigger draw and they're only half a game better than us, and we beat them at KSU.  Can we slip into the Sugar under this scenario?

No. CCG runner up is auto to the Sugar Bowl. 

[mdmost 42860]

We're looking at the Alamo with either Oregon or Utah as the opponent. If WSU wins tonight, Oregon backs into the Pac 12 title game and gets the Rose Bowl regardless. Utah then is the Alamo choice. If Washington wins, Utah is in the Pac 12 CCG and either way they go to the Rose. Oregon then slips to the Alamo. 

Edited November 27, 2022 by mdmost

[Nicole44 22027]

[Valmy77 13094]

Yeah back on the River Walk. Oh boy.

Might as well keep that bowl winning streak going for whatever it's worth.

[GreenspointTexas 9565]

10 minutes ago, mdmost said:

We're looking at the Alamo with either Oregon or Utah as the opponent. If WSU wins tonight, Oregon backs into the Pac 12 title game and gets the Rose Bowl regardless. Utah then is the Alamo choice. If Washington wins, Utah is in the Pac 12 CCG and either way they go to the Rose. Oregon then slips to the Alamo. 

Gimme oregon then to avenge the last 2 bowl losses we have (im not counting 2009 as a bowl loss) had in the past 20 years

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

19 minutes ago, mdmost said:

We're looking at the Alamo with either Oregon or Utah as the opponent. If WSU wins tonight, Oregon backs into the Pac 12 title game and gets the Rose Bowl regardless. Utah then is the Alamo choice. If Washington wins, Utah is in the Pac 12 CCG and either way they go to the Rose. Oregon then slips to the Alamo. 

Not necessarily. If USC takes the loss they aren’t going to the CFP and if the loss is bad enough maybe not a NYD6 game?  They probably will but Bama and Tenn are out there with 2 losses as well and might be geographic favorites over SC, plus there’s just a ton of auto bids to teams like LSU, KSU, tallest midget from the group of 5, ACC champ.   

 

 

Edited November 27, 2022 by Wulaw Horn

[TexasGolf 4856]

25 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Extremely doubtful. Like 1% chance

[Huckleberry 32699]

On 11/22/2022 at 2:33 PM, ryskey said:

Being clutch is a thing and huge intangible.  Good for TCU and their chutzpah.  Bad for UT.  But mean reversion always happens. 

So it's not a thing.

[Skipper 6103]

So we know we are in the Alamo Bowl but have no idea who we are playing?  Is that the consenus?

[satyanash 14281]

5 minutes ago, Skipper said:

So we know we are in the Alamo Bowl but have no idea who we are playing?  Is that the consenus?

Could TCU theoretically lose to KSU so badly that they fall out of NY6 consideration completely? Probably not.

[NashLonghorn 270]

I think we are in the Alamo bowl unless KSU beats TCU. 

[Skipper 6103]

6 minutes ago, NashLonghorn said:

I think we are in the Alamo bowl unless KSU beats TCU. 

I mean we are still in the Alamo Bowl then right?  What scenario are we not?

[RabidM 2664]

A 1 loss TCU gets an at large NY6 bid. 

[perfectchaos007 6596]

UGA is in the playoff regardless of win or loss in the CCG, and I'm starting to think TCU might be in the same boat. Kansas State will be in the top 10 come Tuesday, and if KSU wins that game, then TCU's only loss would be to a top 7ish KSU. I think Texas is a lock for the Alamo

[DrunkTshirt 9]

If historical ways still stand Alamobowl takes Pac10 #2

 

USC and Utah in Championship game.

USC loss = Alamobowl, Utah goes Rose, Oregon goes Alamobowl

USC win = Playoff, Utah or Oregon Rose/Alamo : Oregon beat Utah in season but not sure if Utah earns 2nd by making conf champ. Oregon and Utah finished regular conference record 7-3 but Utah, if losing to USC, would have a 4th loss (with a loss to Oregon.) Someone else can dig deeper and see if Ore or Utah are 2nd in which situations if USC wins.

 

Of these options, go Utah beat USC.

[TX Wing Fan 132]

Based on how the Pac 12 is shaking out, it looks like the most likely scenario for us is the Alamo Bowl against Washington. If USC loses to Utah in the Pac 12 Championship, then we'll play the Trojans instead. Interesting options as they're both schools that Sark used to coach for.

If KSU beats TCU next Saturday, then we'll probably fall to the Cheezit and play the loser of the ACC Championship, which will be either Clemson or UNC.

[RabidM 2664]

UNC, Washington, USC... those are all fascinating match ups considering ours or Sark's/PK's connections to those schools.  Clemson would be a fun as fuck match up though. 

[Carl Spackler 3461]

8 hours ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Gimme oregon then to avenge the last 2 bowl losses we have (im not counting 2009 as a bowl loss) had in the past 20 years

Beating Oregon won't wash away the disgrace of getting pummeled by Arky in '14.  That's Texas' last bowl loss.

[Armybrat 40735]

8 hours ago, Nicole44 said:

 

[Reese Bennett 3605]

I don't want Oregon in Texas. Much rather play Washington or even Utah. Still, if it is the Ducks, we need to crush them and the way the Beavers ran the ball, I think we will regardless of whether RB1 and RB2 choose to play.

[LTtxfan 48966]

Any scenario where Alamo Bowl chooses tech since they beat blOU last night (assuming tcu wins B12 Champ game) 

[LTtxfan 48966]

These are old predictions, but Notre Dame or FL State might be great games in Cheez-it Bowl 

[Red Five 40654]

Yahoo has us in the Sugar, this morning.

[mdmost 42860]

This is from the Sugar Bowl's website:

The Allstate Sugar Bowl will host the champions of the SEC and the Big 12 unless either or both of those champions are selected for the College Football Playoff. If either of the champions do qualify for the playoff, another highly-ranked representative from the conference(s) will play in the Allstate Sugar Bowl. In the case of the SEC, the replacement team would be the top-ranked non-playoff team. In the case of the Big 12, the replacement team would be the next non-playoff team with the best record in the regular-season standings.

 

I don't see how we jump Kansas State in that regard as they have a better regular season record than us. I mean, I'm down for it if it happens but I don't see it. 

[Red Five 40654]

I guess the question is, how rigid is that? Can the Sugar say "Well they both finished with four losses and Texas beat them on the road, so we're selecting Texas to play Tennessee or Alabama"? Because obviously they will if they can. 

[Hozz 1012]

College Football News, a USA Today site, has us in the Sugar as well, playing the other UT.

[closetojumping 62231]

I am all for inflicting as much elitist harm as Texas can upon other shitheels in the Big 12, so seeing UT leapfrog KSU and go to the Sugar because “we’re Texas” would be hilarious. That considered, I’m with @mdmost and don’t see how it’s possible unless the Sugar Bowl just tells the Big 12 “this is what we’re doing and if you want to remain relevant to this relationship after Texas and OU depart, shut the fuck up and enjoy the ride.”

[mdleast 8261]

I think it’s interesting that there is slightly different criteria for the non-playoff SEC team vs Big 12 team. Also, what do they mean by “regular season”? I assume they mean standings before CCG and, if so, I also don’t see how they would pick us (assuming they follow their own criteria). Hope I’m wrong though…would be nice to have an excuse for more of mdmost’s gumbo

[mwaadeeb 1152]

Damn, and I woke up feeling the cheesiest.

[BigOrange1 6422]

obviously i prefer the sugar bowl, but i haven't seen a potential matchup yet (across any of the three bowl possibilities) that i hate.  i'd rather not play alabama simply because we play them again next season, but any of lsu, tennesee, oregon, washington, usc, notre dame, fsu, clemson, unc feel like fun matchups to me.

[6th Street 6357]

Looking like Alamo Bowl vs Washington or UCLA