2023 Official Astros World Champs Offseason Thread

[tx 3 putt 78,009]

 

[Amos Moses 795]

 
at the right price. if they can get brantley and yuli back for 1/2 price, do it 

Meh - as a last resort fine. Spend now on short term contracts while the money isn’t needed elsewhere for the homegrown talent.

[tx 3 putt 78,009]

I'll be very ok with the Dusty statue outside the stadium, when they retire his number !

OMG Fire Dusty !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Quote

Dear Dusty’s Saber-Critics: If you can show a similar bullpen list for other managers, please reveal your work. Not more flawed formulas centering on a manager’s process, but concrete before-and-after outcomes that reveal success.

how about SHUT THE FUCK UP !!!!!!!!!!

Edited November 11, 2022 by tx 3 putt

[tx 3 putt 78,009]

4 minutes ago, Amos Moses said:

Meh - as a last resort fine. Spend now on short term contracts while the money isn’t needed elsewhere for the homegrown talent.

 

if those other guys are taking one year deals with us, we're their last option 

[Gut Wagon 8,146]

12 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Contreras for 18M, Abreu for 18M Hanniger for 12M- all on 2 or 3 year deals. That’s 48M way better spent than JV and Montero. It’s just a big need on the one side and an absurd surplus on the other. 
 

jV- 25, Diaz- 5, Yuli- 6, Brantley 16 +28M that was unspent equals 80M. I spent 48 that’s leaves you 22M for extensions and arb raises. 

If you Google "First World problems," you probably will be directed to this thread. 

[Wulaw Horn 19,327]

13 minutes ago, Gut Wagon said:

If you Google "First World problems," you probably will be directed to this thread. 

And the fat finger fucking strikes again. $32 million left over for raises and extensions.  That should be enough for Tucker and a pitcher or 3 pitchers and no Tucker.

Edited November 11, 2022 by Wulaw Horn

[tx 3 putt 78,009]

Astros fan skipped her bell ringing ceremony for her last chemo treatment to get in line for Jose Altuve at Academy ...

https://abc13.com/houston-astros-meet-and-greet-jos-altuve-sign-autographs-world-series-2022-cancer-free-fan/12437839/

 

 

Edited November 11, 2022 by tx 3 putt

[Limp Brisket 546]

Player loyalty pays shit so it’s a thing of the past isn’t it?  Or is it a contributing factor to some degree on maybe taking less to stay?

[tx 3 putt 78,009]

Just now, Limp Brisket said:

Player loyalty pays shit so it’s a thing of the past isn’t it?  Or is it a contributing factor to some degree on maybe taking less to stay?

 

you're as loyal as your last pay check 

[Limp Brisket 546]

17 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

you're as loyal as your last pay check 

And I get it and I get that it sucks too but I’m old school.

[tx 3 putt 78,009]

 

 

[TexArcher 38,447]

4 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

 

Jesus fuck, what are they asking for??

 

[Wulaw Horn 19,327]

28 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

Astros fan skipped her bell ringing ceremony for her last chemo treatment to get in line for Jose Altuve at Academy ...

https://abc13.com/houston-astros-meet-and-greet-jos-altuve-sign-autographs-world-series-2022-cancer-free-fan/12437839/

 

 

That’s awesome. 

[tx 3 putt 78,009]

6 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

Jesus fuck, what are they asking for??

 

 

garcia / lee / leon / wagner / martinez  ?

throw in little correa. it would probably take 3 arms and lee ?

Edited November 11, 2022 by tx 3 putt

[tx 3 putt 78,009]

throw in some of these fucks too, and josh james ....

 

[UTexasFight 9,660]

1 hour ago, tx 3 putt said:

I'll be very ok with the Dusty statue outside the stadium, when they retire his number !

 

Matt Albers!!!!!

 

[tx ind 7,015]

1 hour ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

michael connor on the radio today said he's a $200mil player. he also felt this year's free agent list was weak 

How many years for $200 did he say?  He doesn’t  gets hurt and improves every season so he’s a great investment.

[tx 3 putt 78,009]

 

[TonyTexas 10,587]

Here’s another article with destination and contract projections 

 

[Planet Houston 4,943]

11 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

I stopped watching in the first 15 seconds after the host said she was surprised JV opted out. If you really think that, you’re not worth my time. 

[Tommy Nobis 905]

I’ve seen a lot of posts that want us to resign Brantley? Lol. Are y’all for real? Lol.

[Scraps 13,603]

Rizzo is a Dodgers cocksucker. Can't stand her.

[Scraps 13,603]

 
at the right price. if they can get brantley and yuli back for 1/2 price, do it 

Yuli ain't even worth half price of Abreu. He is worth like 1/8th or some shit.

He is washed, but hey he has funny hair

[Wulaw Horn 19,327]

1 hour ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

garcia / lee / leon / wagner / martinez  ?

throw in little correa. it would probably take 3 arms and lee ?

Way way way light. 
try Framber, Brown plus 2 other top 5 org prospects. That might get them to call a meeting 

[Wulaw Horn 19,327]

1 hour ago, tx ind said:

How many years for $200 did he say?  He doesn’t  gets hurt and improves every season so he’s a great investment.

We know (more or less) that he’s going to make about 40 million the next 3 years. That would put him as a 29 year old FA gold glove and really good offensive RF.

Heyward is the best comp I cam think of (ignore the fact that he sucked right after he signed his deal- that wasn’t know. At the time he got the deal). He had 30 War in 6 years and had 6.9 war in his walk year. He got 8/188. He was younger. Inflation has happened. Call those factors a push and you have about 11/250 for Tucker. If you are giving him an extension he needs to take a haircut on the total value because it’s guaranteed. Call it 8/200. That makes his FA deal 5/160. He’d get more if he performs between here and there but that’s a pretty good guarantee right there. That would be my offer. If he didn’t like that I’d tell him to enjoy FA and wish him the best. I suppose I might entertain 10/250. That takes him to 36 YO and by then you are done with him.  That’s a big guarantee. That’s also “only” 25M for the Astros salary cap- to go along with Yordans 23. If one of the kids becomes a decent CF that’s a pretty damn good OF for 50M or so for the next 6 years or however long Yordans deal runs. 

[tx 3 putt 78,009]

good cheat sheet 

[Wulaw Horn 19,327]

Here would be my offers for FA/ extensions for Astros that were under contract this year- if you hate any of these offers tell me why I’m wrong:

 

JV- 5/150. 5th year vests if he pitches 100 innings in year 4 and 225 innings in years 3 and 4 combined. He says he wants to pitch until he’s 45 here is his chance. He probably gets 3/130 on the open market so then the question is does he think he can do better than 2/20 as a 43 year old. This keeps the yearly down. 

Brantley- 1 for 5. Incentives of 1M for 300, 400 and 500 PA so that if he’s full time player (more or less) he gets to 8M. He’s old. He’s a slap hitter. That shoulder surgery is a big deal. I’d have to view the Medicals as not a wreck. 

Montero- thanks- bye/ not needed- congrats on someone else paying you 8 figures a year. 
yuli- thanks- bye  you have a job for life in our organization  you aren’t good enough to likely warrant a roster spot as a starter at 39 and too old to have positions flexibility required to be a utility guy  

tucker- 8 for 200M explained above 

Chas- 6 for 24  he’s got one year of minimum wage and 2 of arbitration left his floor is a 4th OF who can play all the positions he’s not young  this is fair for a guy you are likely to promote over in a couple years  

Altuve- 3/50  he’s locked up until he’s 34  that’s a sentimental deal and it helps us lower his AAV while giving him more money and committing to him retiring and Astro in all likelihood  

Peña- 10/100  he’s 25 years old  he won’t be a FA until he’s 30 and between here and there he will probably make about 30M  that’s a 5/70 as a 30 year old- he might hire that as not enough, but it guaranteed him lifetime money at a number the Astros can afford… he was too old when he broke in to command big money as a FA  his upside earnings if everything goes perfectly for him is probably 200M.  
 

Framber- 5/85  he’s got 3 years of arb left where he will probably make about 30-35M  that outs him as an extreme GB pitcher at 31 years old   Those guys age in dog years.  That’s 2 FA years at 50M.  If he doesn’t want that I play it out for 3 years in Arb

Javier- 8/100M.  He’s got arb 1,2 and 3 left and doesn’t have bigtime counting stats, he will likely make about 25M in arb  that’s a 5/75 FA contract 3 years early  big value for Astros if he stays healthy and continues on current trajectory.  Huge guarantee for him   
Urquidy- 5/35  he has 3 years of arb left where he will probably make 15-20M.  That’s a 2/20M contract and locking that in- if he stays healthy I’d expect him to be worth about 3/45 or something like that so he gives up a discount for certainty.

Garcia- 7/50  he’s got a year of minimum wage and 3 arb where he likely makes 20M  that’s a 3/30 in his FA part of the deal  

Bregman- 4/120. He will be a FA at 30  he could probably get 7/180 or 200 depending upon how it goes as a 30 year old, but says he wants to be in Htown and this is a commitment to that.  
 

obviously not all of these will hit and you couldn’t come to terms with all these guys, but that would be what I was comfortable with  

only bulllen guy with an offer for me would be Abreu at 5/25 or so.  He’s got 3 years of arb as a mom closer that should be worth about 10M.  That’s a 2/25M extension  

 

what did I get right and what did I get oh so wrong?  

 

 

 

[TonyTexas 10,587]

10 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

what did I get right and what did I get oh so wrong?

You’ll definitely let us know what you get right. 

[The Dog 44,311]

21 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Framber- 5/85  he’s got 3 years of arb left where he will probably make about 30-35M  that outs him as an extreme GB pitcher at 31 years old   Those guys age in dog years.  That’s 2 FA years at 50M.  If he doesn’t want that I play it out for 3 years in Arb

 

I think you are mistakenly pigeonholing Framber. This is a guy with a high 90s fastball and is a strikeout pitcher. He's not Keuchel. 

Edited November 11, 2022 by The Dog

[runthebone 8,173]

We've been assuming we might spend the money to resign JV, but the heel move would be to take that money and use it to sign de Grom.

[tx 3 putt 78,009]

 

[rvm96 1,643]

4 hours ago, The Dog said:

I think you are mistakenly pigeonholing Framber. This is a guy with a high 90s fastball and is a strikeout pitcher. He's not Keuchel. 

He averaged 93-94 this year. That is high 90s?

[Wulaw Horn 19,327]

2 hours ago, rvm96 said:

He averaged 93-94 this year. That is high 90s?

He can pump it up there occasionally and in the right situation 97 or 98 ish in the WS but my sense is you are right and that’s too much effort to sustain for him. 

[Wulaw Horn 19,327]

7 hours ago, TonyTexas said:

You’ll definitely let us know what you get right. 

Nah. We won’t know most of this stuff as most of these deals won’t actually get done. 
change that to- what do you agree with extension wise and what do you think sucks. 

[Murfdogg21 4,492]

6 hours ago, runthebone said:

We've been assuming we might spend the money to resign JV, but the heel move would be to take that money and use it to sign Aaron Judge.

 

[rvm96 1,643]

44 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

He can pump it up there occasionally and in the right situation 97 or 98 ish in the WS but my sense is you are right and that’s too much effort to sustain for him. 

Yeah I've just never seen it consistent even at 96 for a whole start

[kevwun 15,957]

93-95 is where he can comfortably sit, I think.  He did hit 97 in his last world series start but when guys throw as hard as they can, they usually lose control.  When JV uncorks one and get to 98-100 it usually ends up being not a strike and not close enough to get a swing.

[APMP 688]

The biggest heel moves would be to bring back guys hated by the rest of baseball for 2017. Guys like Correa, Luhnow, etc. But we aren't going to do that, so the next best heel move is to go get guys that cause Jomboy etc. to melt down again a la "The Astros got Greinke?!?!"

Ohtani or bust.

[TonyTexas 10,587]

1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Nah. We won’t know most of this stuff as most of these deals won’t actually get done. 
change that to- what do you agree with extension wise and what do you think sucks. 

As usual, most of your thought process is pretty sound. I think where you went wrong is the length of some of your deals. We all know that Crane doesn’t like long deals and some of yours push beyond his comfort level. 

[DaysOff 8,024]

Fine. Spend the JV money on all the Cubans and Dominicans you can find.

[Wulaw Horn 19,327]

8 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

As usual, most of your thought process is pretty sound. I think where you went wrong is the length of some of your deals. We all know that Crane doesn’t like long deals and some of yours push beyond his comfort level. 

I think the only one longer than 5 years was Tucker. You just aren’t going to sign him for less that 8 years right now, maybe 10. Presumably the length of the deal shouldn’t be what is problematic but rather then age upon completion.  Those deals other than Altuve don’t take anyone past 34 or 35 YO. 
If they could get two or three extensions done this off-season I’d call that a win. 

[Scraps 13,603]

Tucker just doesn't strike me as a guy who isn't going to test FA waters.  

Hope I am incorrect, but not holding my breath.  

[Mitch Hedberg 2,101]

23 minutes ago, DaysOff said:

Fine. Spend the JV money on all the Cubans and Dominicans you can find.

I do love a good cigar 

[Murfdogg21 4,492]

10 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

JV- 5/150.

[UDontKnow 10,513]

24 minutes ago, Mitch Hedberg said:

I do love a good cigar 

 

I read that in Bill Clinton's voice...no CR.

[Wulaw Horn 19,327]

49 minutes ago, Scraps said:

Tucker just doesn't strike me as a guy who isn't going to test FA waters.  

Hope I am incorrect, but not holding my breath.  

You are almost undoubtedly correct. 

[Wulaw Horn 19,327]

20 minutes ago, Murfdogg21 said:

I prefer that to 3/130 which seems to be the consensus on what he’s going to get. I’d walk completely on JV.

[TonyTexas 10,587]

1 hour ago, Scraps said:

Tucker just doesn't strike me as a guy who isn't going to test FA waters.  

Hope I am incorrect, but not holding my breath.  

Totally dependent on what value he puts on himself and if that aligns with how the team sees him. See Correa. But I tend to agree with you that he plays it out. 

Edited November 11, 2022 by TonyTexas

[UDontKnow 10,513]

Whatever happens this offseason, Jose Urquidy should not be traded. You hear that, James Click?

[The Dog 44,311]

4 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

He can pump it up there occasionally and in the right situation 97 or 98 ish in the WS but my sense is you are right and that’s too much effort to sustain for him. 

right but the point is he's not a soft thrower. He's just got nasty breaking stuff that he can get guys out with consistently. 

anyway there's this: